demographics is destiny within four years africa will have over 100 cities with more than a million inhabitants by mid-century the continent's total population will eclipse 2.4 billion africa will steadily displace the economies of east asia as the leading destination for offshore manufacturing production and consumption will grow while new value chains will be created in the process even now foreign investors are constructing ports railways and highways across the continent as a result three new trans-mediterranean corridors are emerging that will glue europe and africa however the configurations will have to traverse north africa's gatekeepers giving morocco algeria
tunisia libya and egypt the leverage to dictate terms in this new scramble for africa it is as much about resources as control over corridors for control is the source of strategic power i'm your host chirvan and welcome to caspian report this episode is sponsored by skillshare an online learning community that helps develop your skills using online classes there are thousands of topics to choose from including video and film productivity marketing etc personally i've taken a class on creative writing by daniel jose older who is a new york times best selling author it's only 40 minutes
but it has helped me to get my writing to be on point so while the lockdown measures will likely remain in place throughout much of 2021 why not spend your time at home in a meaningful way skillshare costs less than 10 dollars a month with an annual subscription that's quite affordable but to make things even more interesting the first thousand people to use the link in the description will get a free trial of skillshare premium membership so you can explore your creativity over the past decade an extraordinary wave of demographic and economic growth has swept
across africa by 2050 urbanization will change the face of the continent metropolitan centers will be larger more numerous and better connected with the wider world the cities will produce and consume more imports and exports will surge to meet demands the political landscape is already adjusting to the idea in 2018 the members of the african union founded the african continental free trade area bringing additional value to trans african trade and commerce spanning 55 economies and the total gdp of 2.5 trillion dollars the african continental free trade area is now the world's largest trading block in addition
to promoting internal trade new infrastructure and the removal of import and export duties the block also seeks to enhance the pre-existing value chains currently the european union holds a dominant position as africa's largest trading partner to put things into perspective 36 percent of all african exports are bound for europe while the second largest partner china is the destination of only nine percent of all african exports at the same time europe is the source of 33 of imports a stark contrast to the five percent of goods imported from china in other words in face of the
growing competition in africa europe remains the most important trading partner and both africa and europe stand to gain a great deal from further cooperation in a policy report by germany's conrad adenauer stifting professor michael tanhum highlights a series of africa to europe trade corridors that will reshape the interaction between the two continents these corridors follow the trajectory of the trans-african highway system but are expanded by railways ports and possibly industrial zones they are necessary for africa's growth more generally they are necessary to improve commercial connectivity to consumer markets and a larger industrial manufacturing base trade
corridors emerge in places where large investments in port rail and road infrastructure are coupled with an industrial base anchored in a manufacturing value chain there are three such configurations going from europe to africa and vice versa control over these configurations will decide the geopolitical framework for years to come nowhere is this more evident than in north africa where the trans-african highways connect with the trans-mediterranean nodes of rabbat algiers tunis tripoli and cairo with the triple heritage of arab african and mediterranean culture the north african nations stand as the gatekeepers of africa the collective pivot of
the african corridors hinges entirely on the northern portion of the continent such a position endows morocco algeria tunisia libya and egypt with a once in a generation opportunity to cultivate partnerships on favorable terms and in doing so remake north africa in their image to the west morocco hosts the atlantic corridor part of rabbat's allure stems from the considerable investments in transportation infrastructure and industrial base for instance the french financed el borac high-speed railway links the commercial heart of casablanca to the industrial part city of tangier here the recently completed tangier met port reigns supreme as
the mediterranean's largest port goods and commodities coming as far afield as senegal are exported from the tangier met port from tangier cargo vessels carried the goods a mere 45 kilometers north to al hakiras the largest port in spain and a vital point of entry into the european market from the spanish port the corridors travel north into france and germany interestingly in 2019 a major french automobile conglomerate opened a manufacturing plant north of rabbat to make use of the high-speed railway to tangiermet port since then morocco has emerged as africa's leading auto manufacturer it is this
type of smart infrastructure investments that will determine the success of the atlantic corridor france has been the leading investor in morocco but a stream of new found private and public investors has flocked to the country in recent years raising the strategic bar there is now competition from russian chinese turkish and arab gulf patrons in addition to the french each investor is making more grand promises than the other for instance china is building a 10 billion dollar high-tech industrial zone known as tangier tech city russia is constructing new oil refineries and there is a plan to
expand the high-speed rail infrastructure as far as liguira by 2040. for its proximity and available infrastructure morocco is often dubbed as the door to the sahara however the greatest challenge in the atlantic corridor is the dispute in western sahara the town of laguira for instance currently lies in ruins and separatist forces control the nearby areas so to realize its commercial corridor rabbat needs to restore its sovereignty over the occupied territories in this context washington's recent recognition of moroccan sovereignty in western sahara is a crucial turning point it also explains the recent clashes in western sahara
further east lies the maghreb corridor beginning at the terminus of scandinavian mediterranean corridor in toronto italy the maghreb corridor extends southward through malta and into tunisia from there the corridor links by highway to algiers before traversing the sahara and reaching as far south as lagos nigeria alternatively the tunisian corridor flows along the coast crossing into libya and then continuing more than 2 300 kilometers south to indamina chat facilitating the flow of trade are several key developments in july 2020 the turkey italy tunisia multi-module transportation route began operating across the center of the mediterranean as a
symbiosis of turkish and italian interests the maritime arc connects the maghreb region to southern europe and the black sea the corridor's central hub is italy's deep sea port of toronto which recently underwent a 480 million dollar renovation and is operated by a turkish firm meanwhile chinese firms are commissioned to construct a new commercial port in chechel algeria and the african union and the african development bank are currently considering further enhancing the trans-african highway network to increase the operability of the land routes italian and chinese firms stand a good chance to win additional contracts in algeria
while turkish firms are likely to gain commissions in libya what makes the maghreb corridor stand out is its versatility it involves a number of major powers and it's the only corridor going into nigeria a nation that will double its population to 400 million by 2050. yet here too the makarev corridor faces numerous complications while tunisia stands as a beacon of stability the corridor needs both algeria and libya to work libya is the real problem the ongoing conflict there has created a degree of unpredictability which inhibits business however change is within scope the arrival of turkish
troops in libya and their support for the international government in tripoli has guaranteed ankara a strategic beachhead in the maghreb this then explains the strategic value of libya and the numerous foreign interventions there interestingly one month after the turkish intervention algerian and turkish lawmakers signed a trade agreement pledging to raise bilateral trade to 5 billion at the same time china and algeria have agreed to deepen the latter's participation in the belt and road initiative so while the immediate road ahead is difficult unstoppable long-term plans are in the making to the east egypt with its colossal
population and ample energy supplies stands as the final africa to europe corridor straddling the mediterranean the egyptian corridor connects central and east europe through the greek port city of piraeus to the economies of east africa its total length is more than ten thousand kilometers measured from cairo egypt to cape town south africa to make the corridor commercially viable cairo is looking to expand its total container capacity beijing and moscow have rushed to meet demand chinese and russian firms are expanding the existing ports at dimita east syedport and a new container terminal is planned for construction
at abukir russia and china's close relationship with the egyptian government serves a dual purpose as a strategic and commercial foothold in the region also notable are the emirati plans to expand egypt's ports by the red sea port shockner for instance is currently undergoing a 520 million dollar expansion the main complication in the egyptian corridor sits outside of egypt though cairo is making impressive steps to expand its container capacity east africa's existing infrastructure is insufficient to form a commercial corridor for example the ports in magudishu and mombasa can handle the cargo but they are poorly connected
with the booming inland economies of east africa hence the african segment of the corridor must foremost improve and expand its rail and road connectivity funded by kuwaiti subsidiaries modern rail infrastructure is currently under development to enhance transportation connectivity between egypt and sudan but similar investments are necessary in the south of the continent this will not be easy in ethiopia through which the cairo cape town highway passes there is an ethnic insurgency by the tihrai region also egypt is in a stalemate with ethiopia over the latter's grand ethiopian renaissance dam on the blue nile river these
conflicts need resolution if the egyptian corridor is to be viable that said it's also possible that egypt avoids ethiopia entirely by steering the commercial corridor towards the white nile countries with whom it has better relations this is very much a process in the making all in all africa is changing some areas more rapidly than others depending on factors such as demographics economics politics and geography places that were previously neglected are now dominating geopolitical agendas there is a window of opportunity in africa especially in the north though europe remains africa's largest trading partner russian chinese turkish
and arab gulf patrons are filling the geopolitical vacuum still the power brokers may not want to celebrate too early as is often the case elsewhere every successful venture only buys an admission ticket to a more difficult problem the scramble for africa will play out for years to come i've been your host shivan from caspian report if you want to learn more about this topic check out the full article by the austrian institute for european and security policy which is a think tank that specializes in systematic geopolitical analysis thank you for your time and soul
