in today's video we're going to be focusing on this parabolic phase of the cycle for Bitcoin that's one of the five phases but within this parabolic phase of the cycle we also have some really key subphases this goes to show that 2021 as well as 2016 have certain subphases within those and we're very familiar with the five phases of the Bitcoin Haring cycle from preh Haring rally to preh retrace reaccumulation and POS having parabolic phase of the cycle we'll be focusing on the subphase in this parabolic phase of the cycle specifically so let's dive into
the video Let's dive in and talk about this subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward and let's dive right into it so just going to this first chart we have been talking about these five phases in the Bitcoin harving cycle pre harving rally where we' top prior to the harving preh having retrace where we'd see a 20% pullback we saw actually 33% in this cycle which was quite interesting deeper than usual then we had the third phase which is the
reaccumulation phase in the cycle and then we have the post Haring parabolic upside phase as well and this post harving parabolic upside phase has a few phases within them and we can look to the previous Cycles to better understand those phases so just from the outset at the outset apologies 385 days is how long this phase can last that's at least what 2020 and 2021 suggest to us 2016 suggests it can be 360 days so giving us a year or so here but we can talk about how long this phase could be and in fact
we've talked about this in previous videos that this could be maybe even a shorter phase of around 300 days or so but generally speaking 300 days is what we can roughly expect and within this parabolic phase of the cycle we see a price discovery uptrend first so this is the price Discovery uptrend that's currently in progress actually and I'm not saying we're going to Rally to 200k because we do see diminishing returns but something to this effect is likely whereby we see a multi-week price Discovery uptrend take place for a few weeks and in 2016
this was also the case though you can see here that breaking out from the reaccumulation phase we pulled back to retest it before Trend continuation so this blue circle here just is a little bit of a little bit of a caveat that this is generally One Price Discovery uptrend wave but we had to have that confirmation there whereas here we actually didn't need to see any pulling back but that's a small digression this price Discovery uptrend phase is essentially here and even 2016 showcases to us that price Discovery uptrends don't last forever we do then
see a multi-week price Discovery correction occur and 2021 is also a testament to that so in the future we will see a price Discovery correction that just is the nature of the beast but that's going to enable a price Discovery uptrend going forward so that's going to be the second price Discovery uptrend and in 2016 you can see how exponential this can be and it takes a long time these phases do take multiple weeks to play out and that goes for both price Discovery uptrends and price Discovery Corrections they can last quite a few weeks
but then the price Discovery uptrend ends and then that second price Discovery correction occurs in 2016 saw quite a deep one right over here and this is an idea that I'm still working on because it's still in the progress I'll be sharing more and more specifics over the coming weeks so subscribe to the channel and especially feel free to sign up to direct Capal newsletter by clicking in the link in the description down below because this is where we work on these ideas and flesh them out until H they're solid and ready to be shared
on Twitter so this is kind of a window into my creative process but this was the second price Discovery correction in this overall parabolic phase of the cycle in 2021 so after this price Discovery correction we saw another third and final price Discovery uptrend with a little bit of dipping in the meantime so in fact you could say that maybe we had four price Discovery uptrends and three price Discovery Corrections with within this parabolic phase of the cycle over a period of just over a year 385 days so here on the other hand we had
one price Discovery option the second third and fourth one and then we have three price Discovery Corrections so just going back on that and that's pretty phenomenal to say how in this price this this parabolic phase of the cycle we have four price Discovery uptrends and three price Discovery Corrections and here we also have four price discovery uptrends and for Price Discovery Corrections with this being a dip that's a bit of a flash crash really here so it's a it's a small caveat that we need to keep in mind and so price Discovery is in
progress It's only the very beginning it's only the beginning of price Discovery wave number one we're going to have a price Discovery correction in the future it's going to be a high probability dollar cross averaging moment for Bitcoin as well as altcoins before we embark on that second price discovery uptrend which will be a few more weeks after the price Discovery correction and then we'll see another multi-week price Discovery uh correction so generally it's a very good road map to to think about whereby we see the first uptrend the the first correction the second uptrend
the the second correction the third uptrend and if we get a third correction that's going to be quite a risky one because we tend to see that these third price Discovery Corrections just notice how very little and how short they last they're they're really flash crashes almost so in latter parts of the cycle these Corrections are brief and they're very volatile and they can be quite deep but they quickly resolve themselves and we then transition into a parabolic rally that's really strong so so that third opportunity here that's going to be later on in the
cycle at some point and so it's going to be a quick correction it's going to be a deep one it's going to be a volatile one and then we're going to quickly transition into the final phase of the cycle that final price Discovery uptrend and that's going to fall a lot of people into then wanting to dollar cost average into the next correction but if we have a fourth I mean there is no fourth price Discovery correction you can see that this occurs outside of the parabolic phase of the cycle simply because this is now
then the beginning of a year-long bare market so really important that if you do want to be dollarus averaging into the market and I'm probably going to be doing this as well the first price Discovery correction is a high probability event and the second one that's also a pretty high probability probably medium probability event because there is a little bit more risk associated compared to the first correction the second correction does tend to occur we tend to to see three price Discovery Corrections so that second correction is still on the higher end of probability but
we have to understand that there's just a little bit more risk involved and that third that third and final price Discovery correction really that's a place I won't be dollar cost averaging into you can of course and it has been a profitable play but the risk just isn't there really because let's see if you're for example if this is price Discovery correction and then you accumulate there then you can ride all this amount if you don't even dollar Coss average here or here and you've just dollar cross averaged on that first price Discovery correction then
you can see all that tremendous upside whereas if you just dollar cross average here then you have a little bit less upside but still decent on your on your positions and then here that reward is lesser and lesser and the risk is just growing and growing especially right over here by here you know there's lesser reward involved but if if you're wrong then you can go into a bare market for a year and experienc quite a bit of headache so really important to just understand that with each price Discovery uptrend you have to be careful
about the ensuing price Discovery correction which is a little bit riskier and less rewarding with each passing correction and so we're only just beginning this prices Discovery uptrend here there will be a price Discovery correction in the future it will last a few weeks time and if we focus on how much how long this could last it could last for example 2021 1 2 3 some some three weeks or so and 2016 if we think about it it's also a multi-week uh price Discovery downtrend but 1 two 3 so interestingly enough we have three weeks
in each of these price Discovery correct so could we see another three to maybe four week price Discovery correction in the future so if this is still a multi-week uptrend and it gets us into deep December then at which point do we see that 3 we correction in the future is it going to be late December is it going to be January in fact because over here you can see how long this price covery up Trend can last and of course we do get dips in the meantime but dips these dips are just great opportunities
before additional price appreciation towards the upside so these are very small brief moments of Dipping before price appreciation so they're very different to the price Discovery Corrections in fact we're currently seeing a dip right now but that doesn't mean that this is actually a correction that's going to see us drop 20 to 30% we're still not there yet we have a lot of upside yet to enjoy the STP will probably be very soon over before we carry on in the price Discovery uptrend before we then finally transition in into price Discovery correction number one but
still we have still all all all of this left if you think about it in fact we're only in week two so this is one two we still have all of this left potentially ahead so being in week two we still have so much left in this parabolic phase of the cycle so don't get shaken out by any means and do wait for the price Discovery correction which is weeks away that'll be a fantastic opportunity but for the time being feel free to just enjoy this price Discovery uptrend and not worry as much for any
dips that happen because he these dips are very brief and they will proceed further upside so feel free to click in the link in the description down below to sign up to direct capital newsletter for me to share this updated analysis with you on a regular basis and of course subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future and like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward on Rex capital and I'll speak to you in the next one speak to you soon
