after the excitement of 2024 2025 is shaping up to be one of bitcoin's biggest years to date a prob Bitcoin president is about to take over in the white house and we could finally see a clear regulatory backdrop for crypto in the US hallelujah hallelujah hallelujah but what if I told you that amid the Euphoria there are risks that many people aren't even considering risks that could threaten btc's journey to the moon and so should be on your radar well today uh we'll be taking a contrarian view of bitcoin's potential after all it pays to
see things from all angles my name is Nick let's dig I'll start by saying that nothing in this video should be taken as Financial or investment advice uh this admittedly bearish video serves to educate you on the possible challenges BTC could face but nobody here can predict the future so be sure to do your own research so the first threat to btc's 2025 rally is the US failing to establish a Bitcoin reserve a promise president-elect Trump made during last year's Nashville conference that sent btc's price flying while specifics of the reserve remain unclear at the
time of shooting the Bitcoin act 2024 introduced by Senator Cynthia lumus during Trump's campaign outlines a plan for the US to buy 1 million BTC over 5 years to establish a strategic Bitcoin Reserve or SBR the government would then be barred from selling the Bitcoin for 20 years except to pay down its $36 trillion and Counting debt pile the thing is creating an SB isn't as straightforward regulatory challenges and resistance in the Senate is indeed likely despite the sharp rise in Pro Bitcoin politicians this is something that Galaxy digital CEO Mike novogratz pointed out while
sharing his skepticism of a reserve being approved and Mike isn't the only skeptic either other experts have voiced concerns around creating an are cautioning against the government spending trillions of dollars on BTC especially if it means issuing more debt or selling underwater Investments at a lot to be frank that money could be put to better use others argue that bitcoin's volatility makes it unsuitable for a strategic Reserve which is supposed to provide stability during economic uncertainty for others the Bitcoin act raises concerns about the government's role in speculative markets since it would become a major
player in a volatile asset class and set a dangerous precedent at that on top of that a Federal Reserve chairman Jerome pal has said the the US Central Bank can't legally own BTC dismissing the idea entirely and this response outlines the fed's cautious stance on crypto and caused btc's price to drop from its $118,000 high and this gives us a clue of how btc's price would react if a strategic Reserve was indeed rejected entirely and this makes sense when you consider that without the apparent endorsement of an SBR institutions May hesitate to adopt Bitcoin potentially
slowing institutional investment which has been a key factor in btc's rally so far of course there's the other side of the coin to consider too pun intended paradoxically it could actually be bad for Bitcoin in the long run if a reserve is indeed created I know blasphemy but hear me out according to respected crypto analyst Nick an SBR not only is unlik but it's also a really bad idea for those unfamiliar Nick also coined the term choke point 2.0 which you can learn more about in the description I digress anyway Nick argues that creating an
SBR would signal the US government's lack of confidence in the US dollar while that might seem like a win for Bitcoin in reality it could destabilize Global markets and harm the broader economy ultimately affecting many Investments particularly riskier assets like crypto Nick also says that there's no real argument for an s spr in the first place as he points out quote the dollar isn't collapsing in fact it's thriving the dxy has been rallying for the last 15 years or so he adds that quote the US is growing its GDP relative to the rest of the
world especially Europe which is in slow Decline and China which is is dealing with a serious economic crisis now while this might sound all a bit Doom and Gloom there's a silver lining uh that's because Trump announced the creation of the presidential Council of advisers for digital assets known by its much cooler nickname the crypto Council the crypto council's role includes fostering Innovation developing regulations and coordinating policies among Congress the SEC the cftc and the White House it will also oversee the S spr's creation reducing resistance and ensuring bitcoin's smooth integration into the US Financial
system oh and by the way if you enjoying this video so far hit up those like And subscribe buttons and don't forget to turn on those notifications too to make sure you don't miss more videos like this now the Second Challenge Bitcoin could face in 2025 is Major governments selling their BTC Holdings uh the obvious standout here is China which holds 100 90,000 BTC second only to the US with 198,000 BTC at least at the time of shooting anyway China could sell its BTC in response to Trump's proposed International policies such as higher us tariffs
on Chinese Goods a potential escalation of the trade war that began during Trump's first Administration Trump has proposed a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese Imports and a potential 60% blanket tariff on all Chinese Goods he also plans to tighten restrictions on China's access to us-made chips and high tech products while Banning us investments in Chinese companies especially those developing AI for military applications in response China has already retaliated by imposing export controls on US military companies and investigating major US companies like Nvidia for potential anti-monopoly law violations and what's crazy is that some reports
even suggest China might deliberately weaken the Yuan to offset the impact of us tariffs but how does this relate to bitcoin well put simply China could offload its massive BTC stash to deliberately crash the price and knowing full well it would make Trump look bad and that's simply because it would spook the market causing btc's price to tank a significant drop in BTC caused by China's actions could undermine Trump's Pro Bitcoin policies are damaging his reputation on top of that China using BTC as leverage against the us could escalate tensions a prompt retaliation and create
even more Market chaos the caveat is that rather than selling China could actually follow suit and create a strategic Bitcoin reserve of its own some Hong Kong officials have even argued that this would protect the Financial Security of both Hong Kong and the mainland of course China is not the only country we should be keeping an eye on the UK holds 61,200 BTC and it ranks third in global Bitcoin reserves if tensions rise between the UK and the US the UK might consider liquidating some of those Holdings and this might seem unlikely until you factor
in Elon musk's outspoken criticism of of UK prime minister Kia starma and UK politics in general musk's role as a key advisor to president-elect Trump gives his opinions considerable weight his repeated attacks on starma and the labor government could lead to increased tension between the two countries damaging the traditional special relationship this tension could make the UK government hesitant to engage with the us or Indeed vice versa consequently the UK might be forced to liquidate its BTC Holdings for funding as since it wouldn't be able to lean on the us for support elon's actually been
getting involved in German politics too uh but there's no risk to BTC there since they've already offloaded most of their BTC stash but do recall that the market stalled in the summer of last year when Germany sold its 50,000 BTC which is fewer than the UK's 61,500 Food For Thought Ukraine also presents a potential risk albe it for different reasons as the next largest International holder with over 46,000 BTC it might be forced to sell to support its civilians uh stabilize its economy or fund its ongoing conflict with Russia alarm we regret to announce that
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on you're inside get out you get some sun you get some vitamin D the third risk to btc's 2025 rally is a forced BTC sale by a publicly traded company potentially triggering a market panic and a broader soff micro strategy immediately Springs to mind as it holds one of the largest BTC reserves globally right now the company holds a jawdropping $446,000 400 BTC and it's most likely even more than that by the time you're watching this video for context uh concerns about micro strategy selling BTC have existed for some time and that's for a few
reasons first and foremost it would signal that Michael sailor's extremely bullish stance on bitcoin might be softening this would likely cause investors to question what dangers sailor sees on the horizon and panic cell as a result on the other hand some are concerned about just how much BTC micro strategy could potentially dump on the market with many questioning just how sustainable the company's long-term strategy is fortunately micro strategy is unlikely to be forced into selling its BTC thanks to the way its debt is structured the company's debt consists mostly of unsecured convertible bonds put simply
micro strategy borrows money without using BTC as collateral allowing lenders to convert loans into mstr shares if the stock performs well and this setup lowers the risk of forced BTC liquidation even if the stock price does drop as the debt isn't tied to crypto speaking of which there have been plenty of concerns in the past about the impact of btc's price if MST begins to falter and that's just because mstr basically serves as a leveraged proxy for BTC exposure some believe that because mst's price is so heavily correlated with BTC a drop in the company's
stock price would therefore impact BTC however the correlation between mstr and BTC is well just that a correlation not a causation while prices are highly correlated btc's much larger market cap means mst's performance can't directly influence btc's price at most might briefly affect Market sentiment but it's unlikely to cause a longterm crash in btc's value in any case micro strategy isn't planning to sell anytime soon in fact it aims to accumulate even more through its recently announced 2121 plan this strategy involves raising $42 billion by 2027 a split evenly between $21 billion in equity and
$21 billion in fixed income of course the there are other publicly traded companies to consider uh for example there's Marathon digital a Bitcoin mining company with more than 44,000 BTC then there's Riot another Bitcoin mining company with over 177,000 BTC or there's block a blockchain company owned by Twitter's founder and former CEO Jack dorsy which holds around 8,000 BTC in regards to Marathon and Riot the reason they could be forced to sell is to cover operational costs or to upgrade mining equipment meanwhile block could be forced to sell its BTC to cover the costs of
any shifts in business strategy if any of these companies becomes a forced seller of Bitcoin All Eyes would turn to micro strategy which we mentioned would probably hurt its stock price and General market sentiment the Silver Line in here is that this is unlikely to happen in the case of marathon and Riot they're literally Bitcoin miners it's to be expected that some sulling will happen to cover costs but in the grand scheme of things there will be more BTC flowing in than BTC flowing out meanwhile block announced a DCA strategy in May last year so
they've been actively accumulating too it's also worth noting that Jack dorsy was inspired by sailor stance on BTC and quickly followed suit in 2020 if dorsy continues in that direction then it's very unlikely that block will be selling anytime soon the fourth risk to btc's Rally in 2025 is the possibility that the pseudonymous satosi Nakamoto could return and begin moving his her there BTC now we're going to go ahead and assume that you know all about satoshi's backstory so we won't dive into that right here the key point is that satoshi's last known interaction was
an email in April 2011 since then there's been complete silence and all Associated wallets have remained dormant While most of you will know about satachi what you might not know about is that satosi supposedly has control of over 20,000 wallets holding an estimated 1 million BTC it's widely believed that satachi created so many wallets to enhance privacy and security each time satosi mined a block they used a new wallet address to receive the block reward which was initially 50 BTC this practice resulted in the accumulation of over 20,000 different addresses attributed to satosi known as
Pachi wallets most of which contain exactly 50 BTC due to this mining strategy and this is why satosi is predicted to hold around 1 million BTC 20,000 * 50 is 1 million while we don't know all 20,000 wallet addresses there are some we do know the most famous is this one which received the very first 50 BTC mined from the Genesis block pretty cool right another famous address is this one which satosi used to send the first Bitcoin transaction of 10 BTC to hfny one of bitcoin's earliest contributors anyway back to the video If even
a single set of this 1 million BTC were to move this could present a huge risk to BTC obviously it would spark fears of a sudden influx of BTC hit in the market but that's the least of our concerns not only could satoshi's return attract attention from regulatory authorities but it could spook the markets beyond belief some would even argue that it would Mark the beginning of the end so to speak the Mystique surrounding satosi contributes to bitcoin's narrative and perceived value actively moving any BTC could alter this perception potentially affecting bitcoin's long-term value some
analysts even believe that satachi return would show that bitcoin's own creator has lost confidence in the world's largest cryptocurrency and this would result in an unprecedented crash not only for BTC but the entire crypto Market since Bitcoin is the reason crypto exists the caveat is that satoshi's return could actually be beneficial in the long run I'm sure it would scare people but it could paradoxically show an increased level of confidence since he she they felt comfortable enough to step into the light you also have to consider that satosi could help to settle debates about bitcoin's
true intention once and for all providing certainty to the space and while satoshi's return would likely prompt a few regulatory reassessments but coins Creator could indeed play a pivotal role in shaping future regulatory Frameworks with great power comes great responsibility after all okay folks that brings us to the final entry on our list of challenges that BTC could face in 2025 and that's the possibility that inflation could begin to rise and that interest rates could rise in response there are a few potential causes for inflation to rise this year one example is the tariffs that
we mentioned earlier if Trump implements large scale tariffs this would essentially put a tax on imported goods and this makes them more expensive for businesses to obtain resulting in inflation at the consumer level for what it's worth though uh the previous Trump tariffs had no effect on inflation alternatively any Mass deportations could have a similar effect and that's because they could create a labor shortage employers with their need to fill the gaps by offering higher wages an expense that would then be passed on to Consumers and as it so happens Trump is planning what he
calls quote the largest domestic deportation operation in American history other causes of inflation meanwhile include a possible disruption of Supply chains an unexpected increase in Commodities and higher housing prices to name but just a few if inflation does indeed Spike more than expected the FED would likely Step In by rise in interest rates as most of you will know markets tend to crash when interest rates rise particularly long-term interest rates which would likely rise automatically in response to inflation as a result of bond investors wanting higher interest rates to offset the higher inflation that said
if long-term interest rates start spiking too much then the FED would be forced to step in and stimulate by buying us bonds lowering their yield and of course long-term rates by extension this would actually end up being bullish for Bitcoin and crypto more broadly but the initial rise in interest rates could cause a significant downturn that would catch many unaware now let's balance things out a bit and quickly review all the reasons why 2025 could and probably will actually be bullish for BTC first and foremost it's likely the year we'll see clear regulatory Frameworks for
cryp crypto in the US uh Trump's incoming Administration brings a more crypto-friendly stance and is actively assembling teams to craft favorable policies as if that weren't enough Trump plans to shift crypto oversight from the SEC to the cftc which is seen as much less anti- crypto even the SEC itself might become less hostile with chairman Gary Gensler stepping down soon and likely being replaced by Paul Atkins who is expected to take a more B bed approach 2025 also happens to be a post Haring year now for those unaware the Haring is an event that takes
place every four years and cuts the new supply of BTC being mined in half the last Haring took place in April 2024 this is significant because historically the post Haring year tends to be bullish and often marks the cycle top to help reach that goal the spot Bitcoin ETFs are likely to keep gaining institutional interest as you'll know it was the ETFs that pushed BTC past its previous all-time high at the start of last year as the bull market rages on more investors will be drawn to ETFs in order to get exposure to BTC on
top of this the impending altcoin ETFs could not only draw attention to the altcoins in question but could likewise draw more attention to the spot Bitcoin ETFs for example we could see a rotation from altcoin ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs uh the same way we see with altcoins and BTC and this would mean even more inflows pushing up btc's price and you can learn more about those altcoin ETFs in this video right over here so despite those potential pitfalls we've looked at 2025 is likely to be a huge year for Bitcoin and for crypto more broadly
but as any wise investor knows you've got to be aware of what can go wrong especially when the consensus says that everything will go right and if you want to learn more about what we think will happen this year check out our prediction video right over here drop a like if you like this video And subscribe if you want to learn more about all things Bitcoin and crypto and I'll see you again soon [Music]
