No smoking gun in Hariri killing

[Music] circumstantial evidence links four healah members to the assassination of the late Lebanese prime minister rafik haridi the UN back tribunal accuses the men of the killing six years ago with evidence based on phone records what are the legal and political ramifications of the evidence as well as the indictments this is Inside Story welcome to the program I'm Dian abuga it was a killing that changed the political landscape of Lebanon are now six years on a un back tribunal has accused four hasbalah members of the assassination of the former prime minister rafik Hari as well

as 21 other people well the March 14th opposition have demanded hasbalah hand over the men but hasbalah leader Hassan nasah remains defiant saying all evidence is circum stantial Scott hidler explains There's No Smoking Gun in the adment released Wednesday by the special Tribunal for Lebanon but prosecutors are confident they have the evidence that squarely implicates four members of Hezbollah in the murder of former prime minister Rafi Hariri according to the indictment 20,000 documents of evidence including a huge amount of mobile phone records connect the men to the massive truck bomb in February 2005 that killed

hereri and 21 others this is the first tribunal the first International Tribunal uh that um will indict or is indicting now since the the the indictment is now public uh persons on terrorism charges the opposition March 14th Coalition called the release of the indictment of Victory the Coalition headed by herir sunad urged Hezbollah to turn over the suspects it's very important to find uh those people and to apprehend them and it's important that the libanese government cooperates with the international tribunal and with International Community otherwise it will be it will be accused of being accessory

to murder sorry to murder and not cooperating with International Justice Hezbollah holds the largest Block in Parliament Hezbollah has denied any involvement in the bombing leader Hassan Nala Wednesday night took to the airwaves in a live speech where he responded to the release of the indictment he dismissed the evidence as unscientific when you read the text released by The tribunal you will not find any substantial evidence not a single piece of direct evidence is included the only thing the tribunal relies on is on the mobile phone records and even that is circumstantial nusa accuses enemies

of being behind the tribunal indictment claiming they attempting to stoke sectarian Strife in Lebanon sad Hariri issued a statement after Nala's speech reaffirmed his confidence in the indictment as well as a call to all political groups to stop the infighting and work toward Justice already on Edge over unrest in neighboring Syria Lebanon can ill afford increased tension within its borders Scott heidler Al jazer beay let's take all of this on and bring in our guests all joining us from Beirut today we have Charles shuni he's a professor of sociology and politics at the Lebanese University

elas Hana is also with us he's a security and defense analyst and we also have Naim Salam as well he's a professor of international Affairs and diplomacy at notam University gentlemen thank you very much for joining us on this edition of Inside Story Nim Salam over to you first this evidence is being described as circumstantial that was made public because of the indictment how concrete or solid can circumstantial evidence be in a case such as this one from what we sifted through the 36 or 37 pages of the indictment most of the evidence that is

a presented is really circumstantial evidence focusing primarily on the telecommunication networks and the cellular or mobile phones contacts between members ofah as the indictment said uh if that is the core or the basis and will and it is to remain so that will not amount to much uh in a legal uh process that is fair and uh uh transparent uh in this prosecution process uh what is expected or what was expected from the international Tri J is to bring forth something new to what had already been uh circulated in the media over the past two

or 3 years whether in dbel dbel or CBC or luigo or other uh International media Outlet all right let me put that to Charles let me put that to Charles chuni Charles did we see anything new here in what was presented and what's your take on the circumstantial evidence well my take on this issue is the following you know these are the proofs that that have been put forth by the tribunal so let you know the legal course take you know place and from there you know we can uh judge how founded or unfounded are

you know the evidences that were presented by the court which means you know nobody is entitled at this stage you know to make any pronouncement any final judgment you know on this issue unless we go into court and then we start you know the due trial so that we can discern how well founded are the arguments and the evidence and the documents that have been put forth by the court elas Han if I can come over to you because in the past uh Hassan nasah theah leader has come out and produced video footage and evidence

allegedly pointing to Israel's role what he says Israel's role in this assassination as well as Israel infiltrating the mobile networks of Lebanon did the special Tribunal for Lebanon investigate and look at these claims by hasbalah I don't think so because the STL asked for this evidence to be delivered to the STL they were not delivered because usually as basis for departure for hisbah hisbah does not really recognize the STL however when we talk about circumstantial I think that what happened yesterday you know giving like evidences uh approved by the prejudge trial it means that I

think that it is like a part of a whole things it is in the process so the STL I think now after nominating like two months ago four people from HB as you know uh uh responsible for assassination of former president today we are going within the process of delivering revealing some facts however so far uh they are circumstantial in a way it's not a solid base but we as you know uh uh uh we analyze things that we don't know yet however we have to wait and see a little bit in the future what's

going to happen because I think that they won't the STL won't go into some something highly important highly you know solid into accusing people delivering these uh evidences and not having really a good case after approved by the prejudge trial Francine okay Charles the tribunal said says that Lebanese authorities must do more to arrest these four people and is the heat now turned on well I think you know this issue is going to be very divisive especially that the government is a government sponsored by hasbullah mentored by hasbullah and you know uh the policy of

this government is very much you know tied to the priorities of hasbullah so anyhow we're going to be in a divisive issue it's going to be instrumentalized by the opposition to a very large extent it's going to be a bone for contention in the country but anyhow the government will have to respond you know to the international tribunal unless Lebanon wants to accept himself you know from International institutions but this is something very counterproductive this is something very counterproductive because Lebanon has to respond to a tribunal that has been mandated by the United Nations security

Council and therefore we have to abide by whatever stipulations are mandated by you know this International court and of course we must to be divisive and Charles just to stress that that hasbalah has come out and said that they won't hand over these men but I just want you gentlemen to listen to what the Prime Minister niib maati has been saying about the tribunal just listen to this for a second as a government we are committed to International resolutions especially in the superiority of the special tribunal in Lebanon which has published the decision of the

indictment regarding the assassination of rafik Kiri we call for these developments to be dealt with in a responsible manner for the country and we hope that the international investigation will be truthful and just while maintaining the stability and safety of Lebanon and its Unity okay so that's ni Mi there Salam over to you seeing asalah makes up a large part the Lebanese government and healah discredits this tribunal which is nothing new how does nij miti balance this well hisbah first does not make a large part of the Lebanese government it has only two ministers in

the in the government but it has certain strong influence in the government regarding uh uh the statement by the Prime Minister naib mik the prime minister's statement is basically a statement that reflects the official position of Lebanon which is the following the Lebanese government is willing and ready to cooperate with the international tribunal in all means and ways possible when it comes down to arresting those indes or those who accused by the international tribunal the Lebanese government does not have the who with all or the means to arrest them and everyone knows that here in

Lebanon and I think in the international tribunal quarters so if the international tribunal is to rely on the Lebanese government to get to catch those individual and bring them or hand them to the tribunal that will not to be this is clearly so and everyone here in Lebanon believes that so the point or or what the international tribunal seeks to do is to put to Corner hisbah to contain hisbah and to put more and more pressure on hisbah so that when the day comes to attack from Israel or from other quarters or to uh uh

take on directly hisbah militarily that will this International tribunal will have facilitated the way for that objective elas do you agree there with with with what Naim is saying in terms of putting more pressure on hisbah I'm not going to reply to Professor Nim but you know we have to understand the the composition the structure of this government you have three blocks in this government the block of the president that he has to go by the law by the international law and respect the Constitution and whatever and you name it the second part is the

second block is this block of the prime minister mikati so he has to go and say we respect the international resolution and so on and so on because why because he's he represents the legitimacy of the Lebanese government and then you have the biggest block which is 18 ministers in this cabinet will say no including General Michelle and and and andah so this problem is is creating two tracks so one track is saying we will follow and abdate you know we will abide by the international law respecting the resolution and the other side will say

no so between what the STL wants from Lebanon and the realities in Lebanon I think there is a big gap so nobody is able so far I think to impose on hisbah something he doesn't agree on so I think that it will create for the future a lot of pressure and internal strife in Leon because of this issue it is a critical issue and I think it is an existential issue for Lebanon for the coming days Charles what do you make of all of this what's your take on it well as you know my colleagues

were talking you know it's going to be a highly divisive issue but still it's going to be an issue that needs to be tackled you know which means we have to face it headon and we have to accept the fact that there is an internationally mandated tribunal and we have to take you know the legal course as the only means you know to address this problem by hedging behind you know political rhetorics it's not going to solve the problem the problem is going to be still hovering over Lebanon and over the political scene and that's

why you know there is a must you know on the part of every realistic politician and every realistic you know political party in this country that we need to go to court and fight it legally and in validate you know whatever arguments have been put forth if this is the case Okay so uh my belief you know we cannot accept ourselves you know from the international you know legal system we have to abide by the international legal system and take it from there you know that's my point of view hassa said in his speech on

Wednesday after those indictments were made public that the March 14th Coalition was targeting the shii sect as a whole by trying to implicate shii and hasbalah in all security incidents that are taking place in Lebanon is this likely to escalate and will both nasah as well as the former prime minister s Hari now use sectarian tensions for political gain how do you see it playing out I don't think the situation in Lebanon will be going in the direction of sectarian Strife or sectarian confrontation in in the coming uh uh uh period the government has the

abilities to maintain Law and Order and prevent such actions from taking place so I don't I'm not afraid of a sectarian Strife coming into Lebanon in the coming period the reason is uh those who may want to uh instigate sectarian Strife in Lebanon are not powerful enough to do so and therefore the situation in Lebanon will remain stable in a brief the hisbah uh party will not submit those individual requested by the international tribunal to the tribunal and the situ and the course of action will be protracted between the tribunal on the one hand and

hisbah and Lebanon lebanon's government on the other hand this situation will not be concluded in a swift way anytime soon Charles is Nara in your opinion presenting a convincing case when uh when he comes out and says that March 14th is attempting to sabotage shii relations well I think you know it's a little bit you know exaggerated in a sense but at the same time you know we need to make sure that political parties are not going you know to instrumentalize these differences in order you know to promote the idea of a blanket accusation or

in order you know to promote the idea of the Trib tribunal as being purely and merily a divisive issue the tribunal was created initially in order to address the problem of a string of political assassination which started with the attempt on the life of Maran hamedi and then you know with the victimization of rafik Hariri and his bodyguards and whatever you know uh civilians you know were uh victimized during you know this attack so this tribunal has come to address you know a true political problem a string of political assassination and it has become the

epitome and the symbol of a series of political assassination that have taken place you know in this country from the the very beginning of the protracted you know uh civil and international and Regional Wars taken place in our country here's the thing Charles I'd like to ask you this and then I'd like to ask elas Hana the same question will the tribunal the STL go after and be able to convict those who actually ordered the assassination of the former prime minister raiki or are we simply seeing them going after those who are accused of actually

carrying it out because there is a difference well my belief you know that you know getting these people those that have executed you know this operation it's going to be quite you know difficult because I think that these people are well sheltered I don't know whether they are in Lebanon or outside leban but no matter what I mean to be realistic they're not going you know to get hold of them that's for sure the problem that is let me let me just get Elias's take on this I wna I wantan to I want I want

to comment on point go ahead this this this estl is something never seen before in the Arab world as well as in Lebanon it is a turning point it's a paradigm shift it's a Black Swan you name it however this STL has a ground to be applied on the lean sectarian mosa now when you talk about consociation of democracy in Lebanon that power sharing according to sectarian lines and when you talk about the Shia that represent maybe 35% of the Lebanese people and they are very strong today with hasah and Iran and Syria and whoever

and then you have about the Rafi president prime minister represent maybe the third or the 40% of the Sunni so how they can share the power in the future this tribunal will create a major Strife internally so uh I think that the tribunal and the you know the trial will go in absentia and Absentia means that you know you have to wait like more than 60 days and then you have to go into something how you going to get out of it how you going to get out of it ifah denies uh giving these people

so in Lebanon we have two parties a part a party that is able to do but does not want to do it and the other side is want something is not able to do it so there will be like a Strife without Civil War why we have to wait and see what's going to come from this STL will it put a lot of pressure on the STL on the Lebanese government and dissolve this government and at this point dissolving this government will be highly difficult for Lebanon to you know to uh do another government in

the future and then we go into something chaotic something unexpected for the future Naim salm just a point there that Charles as well as elas were both talking about is success for this STL in Lebanon is it the only way the only serious route perhaps to ridding Lebanon of this cycle of political assassinations that the country has been going through or do you see another way perhaps the international tribunal would have be would be considered successful in it in this process if it is able to bring those accused into court and prosecute them if it

is going to prosecute them in absente and this will be a a a precedent in international courts and international tribunal there hasn't been uh such cases in which people were were prosecuted uh uh into in court in absentia okay do you see how this do you see it playing out this way though do you see them being prosecuted In Absentia they they may likely be prose fter In Absentia but this will not bring for us or for the public opinion Lebanese public opinion International public opinion the truth about who killed rafik Hari in Lebanon and

who killed the other victims who were victimized in the past few years in the in a series of assassination this will we will not know about that and this is due primarily to the fact that the international tribuna has pursued one track which isah first of all the Lebanese General track then Syria track then hisbah track and never looked into the Israeli tracks where there are very much strong evidence that Israel might well be behind this series of assassination in Lebanon at least some of of them if not all of them yeah Charles uh we

we touched upon this in fact at the beginning of the program but do you think that the STL should be pursuing other tracks should have pursued other tracks well my belief you know uh when they have built their case obviously they have been you know investigating you know different tracks so what brought them you know into this accusation should be based you know on an evidence that they have been searching for that's why you know we need to wait until you know the whole you know uh report is displayed to the public so that we

can make sense of this accusation because what we have so far are you know um bits and pieces of of you know this act of accusation what we need is to have the whole sale picture so that we can make sense of how well founded is the accusation yes or no because from what we have seen so far is the executive part but who has you know ordered you know the assassination this is the most important part because these are politically motivated assassination there must be someone who has been playing behind the scene and Order

you know these assassinations in order to achieve certain political goals and that's something that has not yet you know uh um uh been displayed in whatever documents have been released to the public yeah you're right Charles and elas let me put that point to you because if those who are responsible for the killing of the former prime minister Rafi Hari can escape punishment can escape the STL if that is indeed the case what do this do to the credibility of the tribunal already called into question by some including Hassan Nas ofah first the the fact

that created the STL is a good thing it it created a deterrence for not to have more assassination or political assassination in Lebanon however if this STL has to succeed uh as the process is due in the future it needs the cooperation of H now the Five Rings or The Five networks the blue the green the red whatever there are 60 people connected together at many level it's like a pyramid those who you know prepared and hold to planed and executed whatever now this level or this huge uh importance of uh former prime minister uh

to kill him politically or physically it means that this decision must be taken at a higher level so from these 60 people you have to go uper to upper level upper level means maybe the uh decision makers and hasbalah and hasbalah is not really related to itself it's not isolated it goes within the resistance the so-called resistance acts in the region so we go back to Iran and then to Syria that's why we saw like a quick reaction from the Iranian Ambassador gam abadi in Lebanon denying and accusing this uh uh STL as a ploy

of Israel and uh and United States of America so this one uh hasah cannot really accept and give its people why because if he goes into the process he will be caught into the process of asking who is behind Mustafa Badin who is behind aash and who is behind say Hass all right on that note I'm afraid we'll have to leave it there but gentlemen thank you very much for all of you for joining us to discuss this topic on Inside Story Charles shuni elas Han as well as Naim salm I really appreciate your time

with us on inside story thank you and we thank our viewers and you for watching this Edition and we always welcome your comments and your suggestions anything you'd like to see or tell us you can email them to us at insid story at aljazeera.net goodbye for now