Bitcoin: Why This Cycle Feels So Different

hey everyone and thanks for jumpping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about why this crypto cycle feels so much different than the last one a lot of people experienced back in 2020 and 2021 if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe crypto.com let's go and jump in so the first thing I'd like to discuss actually is the bracket challenge right so we do the bracket challenge every year for those

who are interested in the NCAA tournament I generally follow it along follow along with it pretty closely and we got a pretty good turnout we have 774 people that joined it remember the winner gets a oneyear subscription to ITC premium so right now yours truly is in 146th Place so I'm not doing that great but we do have uh a few people down here that are in the lead with 150 points we got 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 so we got 10 people that are all tied for first right now so

congratulations to those people obviously we're only halfway through the first round at least by the time that I'm making this video so we have a long way to go uh but we'll check in with this as the as the bracket as the tournament continues so let's go back over here and I I want to talk again about we did this video a few weeks ago okay we talked about you know why everyone's calls for you know altcoins to outperform bitcoin have you know have been premature this cycle and and why this cycle feels so much

different one of the interesting things and and this is sort of a a very sobering reality when you really start to think about it okay the number two cryptocurrency by market cap is ethereum and it's been number two for quite a long period of time I would almost argue that the performance of altcoins is more so representative of whether retail will come back or not not Bitcoin the reason for that is despite my best efforts to highlight the importance of Bitcoin dominance this cycle there are a lot of people that are under the illusion that

all altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in the bull market and it's one of those things where you can't necessarily convince them that that's not true until they spend a few years watching it play out one of the reasons that this cycle has been so different is because of monetary policy by the fed the sobering reality that I I was I was mentioning a minute ago is this right now Bitcoin is at 84k all right so 84k all in all not that bad um um now obviously if if if it's just a lower high you know you'll

look back on it and be like yeah but okay fine but in the grand scheme of things Bitcoin is the 84k last year at this time so we go back to March of 2025 or 2024 Bitcoin was at 70k okay you go back to March of 2023 Bitcoin was at 27k so it has been doing fairly well so again why do people feel like it's not and like it and like this cycle has been so different from the others the reason is because of this ethereum when ethereum in 2022 in August of 2022 going into

you know going into September but in August of 2022 just before the merge the price of ethereum was the exact same price that it is today now think about that for a minute right since mid August you're talking you have August of 2023 August 2024 you're talking two and a half years and the price of eth is the same as it was in basically the depth of the Bitcoin bare Market in 2022 at at around 2 remember in let's look at this week August 8th of 2022 for Bitcoin where was Bitcoin the week of August

8th right here the highest it got was 25k the open was 23k so the reason this cycle feels different for a lot of people is because there's a lot of people that thought all altcoins outperform Bitcoin in a bull market and so fading Bitcoin dominance has not been a good thing right for those people because while Bitcoin is up here the people that hold a lot of altcoins still feel like they're down here that I think explains why sentiment is so bad yes it's true Bitcoin has done incredibly well in 2023 and 2024 but that

sentiment is only shared by people that actually held Bitcoin if you held alt coins it's not the same feeling now why is this why is this happening if you look at the advanced decline Index right if you look at the advanced decline index I've made this argument for the last several years that we're in the phase of the cycle that is still comparable to to what happened over here between January of 2018 and January of 2020 where the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies was actually in a downtrend right it was in a

downtrend during that downtrend of the top 100 cryptocurrencies the advanced decline index and by the way if you're not familiar with the advanced decline index you can pause the video here and read the description and the usage usage of it if you want but basically it's calculated as the number of cryptocurrencies advancing minus the number declining plus the prior index value so if more cryptocurrencies are going down than going up then the ad is going down if more cryptocurrencies are going up than down then the ADI would actually go up so you could understand in

this situation you know why this cycle feels different right when you look at this chart specifically you can see that this phase of the cycle never actually ended right it never ended in fact it just put in a new low on March 10th now of course there's always a chance that is the low but I want to sort of dive into more you know why this is taken so long to play out it a lot a lot of it just simply goes back to monetary policy and when you look at this chart all Bitcoin pairs

so when you look at total three minus usdt divided by Bitcoin you get a chart that looks like this if you look here at the range low you'll notice that during the last two cycles all Bitcoin pairs went to the range low in November of 2017 all Bitcoin pairs found themselves at the range lows last cycle all Bitcoin pairs found themselves at the range lows in September of 2019 and then again in May of 2020 and then they Wicked below it in January of 2021 but last cycle it was way earlier in the cycle when

all Bitcoin pairs hit the range lows this cycle we're now a a fourth almost a fourth of the way through the post having year and all Bitcoin pairs are still up here it's pretty interesting right when you think about how different this cycle is compared to the last one but then I think to myself what about two cycles ago right I look at two cycles ago and I see that all Bitcoin pairs were at the range lows in November now look guys one of the issues with this chart is that it doesn't go back further

it only goes back to 2017 all coins didn't really exist in mass in you know 2013 2014 yes there were some cryptocurrencies right absolutely there were but there weren't a whole lot of them so this chart if you were to sort of draw it out further would probably look something like this where it was down here you know and then it and then it comes back up and then it you know goes up into this range this is a very common pattern we see with individual altcoins against Bitcoin where they have an initial capitalization and

then they go into whatever pattern they're going to go to against Bitcoin right where they go up look at eth Bitcoin this will this tell you the whole story you need to know right so if you look at eth Bitcoin you can see what I'm talking about this right here is just the initial capitalization of of eth against Bitcoin so then it goes up here and then people think it's going to go up forever but it was just getting back up into that it was in that range and then ultimately it bled back down it's

better viewed when you look at the market cap ratios because Supply you know Supply ultimately matters and if you look at the eth Bitcoin market cap ratios what do you notice what do you notice anytime it's up here everyone thinks it's never going to go back down here and when it's down here no one ever thinks it's going to go back up here and you can see just how far it has come so the thing to to really consider here is what has caused this longer bleed what is what was caused it and why didn't

it play out quicker you could assume or postulate that the reason it has taken longer to play out is just simply due to all the money printing we had back in 2020 and because of that there's been a lot more liquidity it's been slashing around a lot more lot more liquidity slashing around than we had last cycle and because of that last cycle all Bitcoin pairs went to the range lows a lot quicker another reason is maybe there's just more people interested in cryptocurrency in 2025 than say back in like 2019 that's also a possibility

so there's more liquidity now and because there's more liquidity the order books aren't so thin and so it takes a lot longer for them to capitulate to the range lows one of the things that I've highlighted before is if you look at the total balance sheet of the Federal Reserve last cycle it actually bottomed when quantitative tightening ended and QE began now Jerome Powell has made it clear that QE is not beginning anytime soon and not until interest rates are at zero you'll see a lot of people constantly calling for QB to begin but I

think those calls are are largely misplaced there's a difference between quantitative tightening ending and quantitative easing beginning it's possible to end QT without beginning QE and I think that's a reality that everyone has to accept as well that's not necessarily a bad thing in 2017 we saw the balance sheet of the FED mostly constant and altcoins did just fine against Bitcoin but the problem is when the wind is blowing in the wrong direction all Bitcoin pairs generally bleed this cycle the wind has been blowing in the wrong direction direction for alt longer than it did

last cycle and because of that it's taking longer for all Bitcoin pairs to bleed you could argue You could argue that had all Bitcoin pairs gone to the range lows in the prehab year maybe quantitative tightening would have already ended but they didn't do that and they didn't do it it probably because as jome pal said there were ample reserves so they're taking longer to play out what's interesting is that the advanced decline index looks kind of similar to all Bitcoin pairs a low or sorry a high a low a lower high a lower low

right and this is a high over here you have a high a low a lower high a lower low a lower high a lower low look at all Bitcoin pairs you see the high and the lower high and you have a low and you have a lower low when I talk about range lows I want to be clear I've always thought that was the optimistic Outlook right because to me when people say that you know a lot of people say well the Bitcoin is sort of like the Myspace or the AOL the crypto I couldn't

disagree more I really couldn't the only reason the altcoin market even exists is because of Bitcoin if Bitcoin doesn't survive then the altcoin market is is is very very likely not going to either whereas the counter point is not or the counterview is not necessarily true right if Bitcoin survives that doesn't necessarily mean that altcoin survive or at least it doesn't mean that everyone else's all doesn't survive obviously I'm not talking about your all I'm sure it's fine so I I think it's important to to consider you know why certain things are playing out and

and and actually it's starting to finally play out okay and what I mean by that is what's going on you know with with the USD valuations of alt coins so going back to what we talked about previously right ethereum the the value of ethereum right now is the same as it was before the merge I mean pause the video and think about that for a minute that's why this cycle feels different for a lot of people because Bitcoin dominance didn't necessarily click for them and now it's becoming more obvious right but what did we talk

about what did we talk about a few months ago the the way that monetary policy changes is by getting pain in the market right we talked about that many many times over the last few months and we said that there's likely going to be weakness in the market between February Opex and March Opex well it's basically March Opex uh we're almost there and there's been a lot of weakness in the market you know bitcoin's dropped a lot eth has dropped dropped a lot even the S&P 500 has dropped a lot during that time and there's

plenty of examples where the weakness ends in mid-march so it's possible that you get a bounce and and that sort of a local low for a little while but there are times when the weakness persists for one to three weeks after March Opex there's times where that happens now I don't have a crystal ball I can't tell you if that weakness is going to persist if you told me for a fact it was going to persist I could easily come up with the narrative for it it could be due to the tariffs that are probably

going to go into place on April 2nd and it could be due to the macro data that's going to be coming in in early April in 1973 it was actually the next inflationary data point that was really bad if you go over to the macroverse and you look at inflation year over-ear and you look at the 1970s the big Jump by inflation happened from February to March but remember we're one we're one month delayed with inflation data so in April we're going to get the March data point so this is what I would say right

I mean you know if if the weakness persists and here what what do you notice here right the market dropped there into late March and then It ultimately found support for a little while but ultimately inflation back then was not transitory and it continued to go up and then the market went down you see what happened back then the market slowly dropped as inflation went up that that's probably the main reason for the weakness one of the main reasons for the weakness right now yes February Opex to March Opex is usually not a good time

um there are times where the market goes up but I mean if if there's any weakness in early in in late February then there tends to be weakness for like all of that month right February Opex to March Opex if if if there's weakness at all it tend to be weak for the entire month um so I think that is is is also a contributing factor as to why you know if the if it persists longer and I talked about this a few weeks ago or no not a few weeks a few days ago that

when you look at the advanced decline index for say the stock market we already looked at it for the Crypt but if you look at it for the stock market there was something that happened a few days ago where certain number of stocks advanced over the ones that declined and historically when that happens 50% of the time the S&P 500 is lower 2 weeks later which means that half the time it's higher two weeks later so it's kind of a coin flip uh if it's lower in two weeks again my guess it's going to be

due to tariffs at least tariff discussions or at least that's what the narrative will be assigned um and the good the good news though I suppose is that in all of those cases going back several decades the market was higher 2 months later so half the time it was lower 2 weeks later but higher two months later 100% of the time in those in those cases so there's kind of like a a silver lining but if the weakness persists for a little bit longer that would probably be why so the cycle feels different because the

cycle has been different than last cycle it has and there's no denying that right I mean it absolutely has been different than last cycle because if you look at the ADI the top 100 cryptocurrencies it just put in a new low a few days a week or two ago a week and a half ago in 2020 and 2021 this thing was just going up you could literally you know we could put a we could have put sticky notes all over this wall with every single cryptocurrency and we could just throw a dart at it and

whatever one it lands on you could have bought that all coin and there was a good chance it was going to go up because everything was going up this cycle has been the complete opposite if you took a a dart and threw it at a board with a thousand different cryptocurrencies if you bought the one it landed on there is a good chance it actually went down if you had taken the dart in early 2023 and just pinned it to the board and put it on bitcoin that was how this cycle would have been easier

because the market conditions never never changed to allow for the cycle you remember to come back in 20120 and 2021 that never actually happened but when you look at all Bitcoin pairs you can notice that last cycle is not what is playing out this cycle in terms of the timing but if you look at two cycles ago the balance sheet wasn't going up right it wasn't going up and all Bitcoin pairs Were Somehow at the range low in November of 2017 imagine that imagine if all Bitcoin pairs are at the range lows in November of

2025 possibility right and you know there there was a change in monetary policy recently so we can't it you know we certainly can't ignore it um the FED came out and said they're going to slow right here they're going to slow the decline of of the balance sheet um they're reducing the Redemption the Redemption cap on Treasury Securities from 25 billion to 5 billion that's a big drop a lot of people ignore the second sentence and you know they have their reasons maybe they think that it doesn't matter and maybe it doesn't but I'm just

saying from an academic perspective it makes sense to to say what's actually happening right there's a lot of accounts out there that are just saying that are just saying QT is over okay or that it's basically negligible because they're just looking at this maybe if they want to say they think that risk assets will do better now because of that that's one thing but to say that quantitative tightening is over because they reduced this from 25 to 5 billion is somewhat nonsensical because if you read the very next sentence I know that's difficult for some

but if you read the very next sentence it says the committee will maintain the month R cap on agency debt and agency mortgage back Securities at 35 billion the cryptoverse has kind of evolved into a weird place because to even point this out on Twitter people say all sorts of things like you're not even allowed to point it out with people getting upset it it's kind of an uncomfortable place to be you know where the truth as to what's actually going on is not welcome the people that that Everyone likes are the people that are

going out and telling you that you know they're giving out these sort of false things where they're saying that China doubled the money supply overnight where they didn't right they literally just changed the definition of the money supply over there they were very obvious they were very transparent about that they said it many times and then it happened the charts updated and then everyone on Twitter is freaking out but it's like guys they they said they're changing the definition but those posts get so many views and so many likes because it's easier to spread misinformation

and call for alt season than to actually report what's actually happening right and it's it's kind of frustrating right it's really frustrating sometimes because you know I just want people to know what's actually going on but when you point it out it usually falls on deaf ears right they just want to point out the you know the the the QT is over but when you add in this it's it's not really now again it's a different discussion if you want to say well maybe all Bitcoin pairs can do better now but that's not the discussion

they're having right they're just saying QT is over when it's actually not technically you still have 40 billion rolling off a month also by the way I believe there's about 2.2 trillion in mortgage back Securities so don't expect that to stop anytime soon I mean the last time the FED slowed QT was back in May of 2021 they announced it for June and you can see right here beginning in June and they lowered it from 20 or from 60 to 25 but you can see that the agency mortgage back Securities were still at 35 billion

just like recently they stayed they kept that at 35 billion so what's more likely to happen is this other one at five billion now rolling off that one eventually might start to go up to offset nbs's going down but that still likely wouldn't be net Delta QE because you would still have some form of quantitative tightening going on if there's 2.2 TR I can't remember the exact number but let if if there's like two trillion in mortgage back Securities it's going to take a while right for that to roll off and I don't know if

they're going to roll the whole thing off pal says they want to but it's going to take a while and so you know so just be aware of that but nevertheless there will be a change in it and that's important to consider and the reason is because if you were to look at say I don't know let's go with a 50e moving average and let's look at the last time the FED announced that q that that quantitative tightening would slow it was right it was that weak right there one of the things you may notice

is that when quantitative tightening was you know when when the balance sheet was reducing by more all Bitcoin pairs were bleeding quicker and then when QT slowed all Bitcoin pairs continued to drop but at a slower pace and it's pretty obvious when you look at at uh the 50e moving average of all Bitcoin pairs the angle of descent changed when QT slowed now initially just after the qu the the balance sheet slowed the announcement all Bitcoin pairs actually sold off but they still didn't really drop a whole lot that was there at 044 they went

as low as 33 or so um let's see yeah 33 and now they're back at 04 but do you see how the angle of descent changed when quantitative tightening slowed you can overlay the balance sheet of the FED again here and see what I'm talking about right I mean if if you took a line here and just tried to sort of say if that had continued right if this pace that that QT was on had continued then maybe all Bitcoin pairs would already be a lot lower but because it came off of that that pace

that slope all Bitcoin pairs the bleed slowed it's like you know what they say it's like you're kind of coming in for a landing as pal says it makes sense it's a common sense approach to slow you know to slow things down as you get closer to the destination because if you come in too hard you could overshoot and you don't want to do that so what they're doing is they're trying to come in slower to the destination so this is likely going to level off even more still go down still technically be quantitative tightening

but that still could allow for all Bitcoin pairs to get down there now why is the Fed slowing QT that's a good question I'm glad that you asked it right it's exactly for the reasons we talked about right I mean in order for them to slow QT they need a reason to slow it down give them a reason to slow it down and they'll slow it down and we've been giving them a reason the stock market dropped a lot and you could argue well yeah but the stock market also dropped in in late 2023 it

dropped about 10 11% which is basically right around where it just dropped that's true but it also took place over a longer time period this was more like down only did you know that this down only period here in the pandemic basically is at the same time right the weakness started in late February look at this weakness it started in late February I mean look it's it's almost identical the week where S&P 500 topped was the week of February 18th look at this the week of February 18th is where it it it topped out right

there before starting to go down and then it bottomed out the week of March 23rd which would be next week so I'm saying if there's another drop next week it could be going into sort of the Tariff announcement in early April but again this was basically February Opex to March Opex approximately right get off my back right approximately just like this could be and so the markets are starting to give the reason for the FED to change monetary policy and if you look at others divided by uh uh but divided by total three minus others

you'll see and we talked about this previously you'll see that lower market cap alts have broken down against higher market cap alts right they broke down here in January and we looked at that back then right we looked at that back then and said hey if you overlay ethusd onto this chart ethusd was Finding support every time smaller market cap alts found support against higher market cap alts but when they broke down so did e on its USD pair so you could argue that the relative valuation of lower market cap alts against higher market cap

alts leads the USD valuation of higher market cap alts because liquidity starts to dry up it hits lower market cap alts first because the order books are not they're thinner and then eventually it works its way to the higher market cap alts when you think about it for ethereum if you didn't tell me the timing if you doesn't say what year right if if we don't say what year it has to happen but if we just said that something has to happen at some point in the cycle it would be ethereum going to the lower

logarithmic regression trend line right when did the ADI bottom last cycle it bottomed in on January 2nd 2020 now yes there was technically a big drop in March there's a Black Swamp right I mean but the ADI started going up meaning more assets started to go up than decline what is that correspond to January of 2020 for ethereum it's when ethereum was at the lower logarithmic aggression trend line that is when the ADI bottomed the reason the fed's slowing QT it's not because e has broken down I I hate to burst your bubble no pun

intended but cryptocurrencies gives us Insight in into the health of the consumer maybe even more so before you before it shows up in other markets it gives us the Insight the market for the the ethereum market finally broke down in the short term that induces a lot of pain if you overlay eth Bitcoin every time that e USD held support on this line it made the eth Maxi celebrate but if you follow Bitcoin dominance you knew it was a bad thing because as long as it held support eth Bitcoin was going down as long as

it held support because as long as it held support the FED had no reason to change monetary policy not because of ethereum but because ethereum is showing Insight in the consumer ethereum is showing in my opinion that the consumer is starting to weaken now which is why the Fed was very quick to change to slow QT which if you think about it is a lot different than what they said last month or in January in January pal said they had ample reserves and then they just lowered it lowered the pace by 20 billion the FED

will respond to Market they they they talk a big talk and for this cycle they really have walked the walk as well but when the markets drop the FED will respond okay the FED does not lead the markets the markets lead the fed and that's an important Nuance to really grasp the markets tell the FED what to do the FED does not tell the markets to do anything the markets tough of fed what they need to do and because USD is finally breaking down monetary policy will slowly start to shift as we go through this

year right it'll slowly start to shift and it already has right I mean they just announced they're going to slow QT just a couple days ago last cycle ethusd did the same thing right as long as it held support in the quantitative tightening Bitcoin bull market as long as it held support things were going well but e Bitcoin is going down and that was what I learned last cycle you know I think a lot of people like look at look at me about this cycle at eth USD they're like like I wish I listened you

know I I you know how did you know that was going to happen guys I don't have a crystal ball right the only reason I was pretty sure it was going to happen was because I got wrecked last cycle making the same mistakes the same exact mistakes that some people made this cycle where they thought that ethereum would outperform Bitcoin in the bull market those same mistakes that's exactly what I did last cycle and what I realized last cycle was I could have just stuck with Bitcoin until QT ended and I would have been so

much better off than chasing the altcoin market right that's what I learned last cyle I was trying to communicate this cycle the most difficult part about this cycle is that this process took place on a much longer time frame way longer than I think any one of us including me was expecting and because of that a lot of people gave up on it but if you don't tell E when it has to go home and just say that it has to happen at some point in the cycle then it makes sense it makes more sense

how to navigate your portfolio it's not about saying it's going to happen this month or this day or that hour or on this fed meeting it's more so just saying hey guys no one knows when it's impossible to know whenever it does that's when monetary policy starts to change and monetary policy now is finally starting to change because ethusd has broken down last cycle we know the ADI bottomed as ethusd sort of fell here into the deeper into the aggression band which is exactly what it's doing now and it's exactly what it did in 2016

I don't know exactly how low it's going to go but the process is no different than what we saw in the last two cycles right the process is the same it's just taking place over a longer time period if you look at 2016 the drop actually occurred here in late 2016 like it wasn't that much of a difference in time and you know there it's not like there's nothing about ethereum that that's starting to look attractive I mean I suppose one thing to consider is that last or in the 2016 cycle ethusd bottomed just after

it went below the August 2016 low and this is the August of 2024 low right here and you can see that we just saw ethereum Wick below it so I suppose that is the sort of the um the Silver Lining here if you're trying to come up with a reason why it doesn't have to go further down maybe that's it you know and again and maybe that's the reason why hedging is a good idea right and we've talked a lot about that but the other Counterpoint to that is that if you go back even further

you can see that the low that it Wicked below also was the April low and eth also had an April low but it was way up here so instead of you know instead of it in instead of the August low finding support at the April low which is what happened over here it actually found support about 20% below that level right so 20% below the August low would actually put ethereum just a few hundred dollar below where it currently is okay so you know I don't know exactly how that's going to play out um you

know whether you want to draw the line and connect the dots and and do the same thing with ethereum um and and sort of connect those dots as well we we we obviously talked about the similarities with the S&P 500 um if you're not famili what I'm talking about just go look at the S&P 500 in 1990 and you'll see what I'm talking about uh where it it actually had a very similar pattern as ethereum and you know we've we've followed that quite closely where it had um a a a triple top right it had

here a triple top if I can draw it right triple top lower lows right this low was a little bit lower than that low and then the final low was the recession low and then the triple top finally got taken out and you might think Ben you're reaching right I mean what why are you talking about the S&P in 1989 to 1990 like you know whatever you're smoking like give me one of those right but again I didn't find this because I was trying to figure out like why I wasn't trying to you know confirm

my bias although it is kind of nice I wasn't trying to confirm my bias what I was looking at what made me look at this in the first place was I was just over here looking at interest rates you know just spending a normal Saturday morning uh looking at interest rates uh minus the 2-year yield which I'm sure many of you guys have have looked into and when you look at it when you look at it you'll notice there's two times in recent history where this metric went up to this trend line two times the

last one was the financial crisis let's hope that's not what's happening like let's hope I don't want that to happen probably don't want it to happen either the other time was 1989 to 1990 which is exactly the thing we just showed that looks like ethereum so that's why the cycle feels different than last cycle because it took so much longer for ethereum to drop to the regression B there's so much more liquidity this cycle that just allowed for altcoins to just hold support on their USD pairs they were only holding support because Bitcoin was going

higher but the minute Bitcoin showed weakness the altcoin market broke down on their USD Pairs and that weakness is pretty obvious when you look at the running oneye Roi of Bitcoin when you look at the running one- year Roi of Bitcoin it was at 2x for a while it just dropped in the 2016 cycle it never dropped this low once it got up here until after the entire bull market was over you know what this looks like to me now it looks a hell of a lot like what happened in 2019 that's what it looks

like and that was right around the time that the FED started to change monetary policy as well so if you're wondering why this cycle feels different it's because to to a large degree it is for altcoins for Bitcoin it's actually been fairly standard so far for altcoins it's been completely different than what many of you experienced in 2020 and in 2021 if you made those mistakes don't feel bad I I made those exact same mistakes last cycle sort of chasing altcoin and then realizing I would have just been better off with Bitcoin the the silver

lining for me is that last cycle when I did it at least it ended in the preab year and I learned my lesson a lot quicker this cycle has been way more brutal in learning that lesson for a lot of people because it's taken place over like another two years so it's been a lot more brutal for everyone but I just wanted to show why this cycle feels different and we talked before about what needs to happen for for things to change we have started we've been seeing that weakness in the market already and monetary

policy is slowly starting to change it doesn't mean that altcoins can't continue to drop against Bitcoin they very well could they very well could still go to the range lows but you can start to see the end of the tunnel right you can start to see the end of the tunnel now that that that that the USD valuations of these cryptocurrencies are starting to finally break down a little bit and again I mean obviously the FED doesn't really care about about crypto but I mean if you were to look at the S&P 500 you know

this is is is starting to you know to there's some structure here that's starting to look a little bit suspicious right because you know this was a low and then you had a higher low and a higher low and a higher low right these are all like higher lows but you're starting to wonder I mean is this a lower low here right is that a lower low and if it if it goes lower let's say it goes even to 5100 or something like if it goes lower then you really start to break Market structure and

that would definitely make the FED want to come to the rescue pal already said pal said yesterday or two days ago he already said he doesn't want he doesn't think this is the 1970s the 1970s is when inflation started to go parabolic starting right around now and the market entered a two-year bar Market if he truly believes that and does not think we're about to go into another inflationary cycle if the market continues to drop then there will be pressure to to to Pivot monetary policy to adjust for that because you know there yes there's

some reason to believe that inflation might continue to be uh be sticky especially with tariffs if the consumer is not Tapped Out tariffs are technically inflationary if the consumer is Tapped Out You could argue they're deflationary but in the short term you know if if inflation I if inflation is not going up and and we actually start to see it go down then the FED will come to the rescue if it starts to go up then they're going to have no choice but to to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer um so we'll see what

we'll see what he does well or we'll see what the the macro data comes in in a couple of weeks and and obviously that will dictate the reaction function by the Federal Reserve but that basically sums it up guys that's why this cycle feels different don't feel too bad learn your lesson it's tuition for joining the cryptoverse next cycle you'll do better thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on inth cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse tocom I'll see you next time

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