October 19th, 2015 election night in Canada, dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Record numbers of Canadians came out to vote. The result.
Justin Trudeau is elected Prime Minister of Canada, with a large crowd cheering his name. Trudeau had one simple message. It's time for a change in this country, my friends.
A real change. Canadians across the country were excited and energized. They believed in a bright future for Canada.
The government would build more homes, make life more affordable and usher Canada into a golden age. The Canadian dream. But fast forward to today, and that dream has faded.
Housing prices have increased at record rates. Food banks are turning away hungry Canadians, and immigrants are leaving in record numbers. The Canadian dream has become a nightmare.
This is the dark side of Canada. If you talk to real Canadians, more often than not, they will tell you how hopeless they feel about their future. They'll share how, when growing up, they dreamed of a life raising a family in a comfortable home and in a safe neighborhood.
Or with home prices soaring. This dream has become a fantasy to buy the average home in Canada. A family needs to earn $170,000 per year.
And in Vancouver that number jumps dramatically to $360,000 per year. Compare this to the median family income of $70,000. And it becomes clear that it is nearly impossible to buy a home in Canada.
Most Canadians who don't own a home have given up and don't see it as remotely possible in their lifetime. The sad part about this Canada's housing wasn't always this expensive. In fact, homeownership was possible for almost everyone.
But in the last few decades, housing prices have increased so much faster than wages that it has forced citizens to abandon the hope of homeownership. Even if you can afford a home, you aren't getting very much. Take Vancouver, for example.
The average home here is nearly $2 million, and it looks like this. Who wants to spend nearly $2 million on a small home like this? When you can get a mansion in places like Austin for the same amount?
Now, not everyone wants to buy a home, and many are perfectly fine renting. But renting is just as hard as buying a home due to years of under building NIMBYism, population growth and government red tape. The supply of rental units is far outweighed by demand Across Canada, rental vacancy sits at an all time low of 1.
5%. This means people are fighting to find a place to live. Each application for an apartment is met with hundreds of competing applications, and renters are left feeling hopeless.
It's getting to the point where you can choose to keep a roof over your head, or you can choose to keep the lights on and eat. But you can't do both. The low levels of vacancy are leading to skyrocketing prices.
Landlords realize that renters have few options, and therefore they continue to raise rents to extract maximum value. Our landlord increased our rent by 7000 per month. The outcome?
Rents continue to rise uncontrollably and will do so for years to come. For example, the average one bedroom apartment in Toronto and Vancouver is nearly $3,000. After taxes and rent, Canadians barely have enough money to make ends meet.
People are skipping meals, taking up multiple jobs, living in their cars, and more. Debt has become an absolute necessity to make ends meet. And Canada now has the third highest household debt to GDP ratio on Earth.
All of this is compounded by the inability of the government to help. In fact, many would argue that the government is making life much harder for Canadians. The problem with housing affordability is a combination of federal and local government policies and inaction on a federal level.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has overseen the largest increase in Canadian real estate prices in history. Much of this is due to his immigration policy. Since 2016, the government has admitted nearly 3 million immigrants into the country.
That is a record and 40% higher per year in the last few decades. To make matters worse, there are over 1 million foreign students in the country. By increasing the population so significantly in such a short period of time.
The government has squeezed an already under built housing market. It is simple economics. Increasing demand without increasing supply causes prices to go up.
Furthermore, most immigrants are looking for entry level homes and apartments, placing a disproportionate amount of pressure on average, and young Canadians who are looking for a starter property. For example, many students at UBC can no longer find housing and now live in vans and parking lots to survive. I have to wait, I guess like more than a year to get housing on campus in UBC.
One student even flies from a different city because it's cheaper than rent. Rooming houses are also commonplace across the country, where landlords squeeze five students into one bedroom to maximize profit. Immigration isn't the only reason for rising prices, though, and it's easy for folks to point the finger.
But Canada has underinvested in housing for decades. In fact, CIBC estimates that Canada needs 5 million more homes by 2030 to achieve affordability targets. Developers agree this is impossible.
Of course, you can't flip the switch overnight to build homes. And in Canada, local governments have shown an unwillingness to invest in housing. For one, citizens who own homes are often against development as it would lower the value of their properties.
Permit approvals are hard to get, and NIMBYism challenges most large developments. Elected officials know this and therefore don't push hard for housing to avoid losing an election. Furthermore, each city and province levies a multitude of taxes that drive the cost and timeline for development.
In some cities, this can add over 20% to the cost of a home, and this cost is directly passed on to consumers by developers. A part of the reason taxes and red tape continue to increase is the government is growing faster than the population. From 2020 to 2023.
The B. C. government grew by 23%.
Compare this to the private sector, which grew by only 1%. This explosive job growth requires more taxes. A similar pattern can be seen in the federal government, which has added nearly $20 billion a year in costs since 2015, and the final nail in the coffin for housing affordability.
Foreign Investment Canada is an extremely attractive and safe place to invest your money, but it also happens to be one of the easiest places in the OECD to launder money. Another bombshell in the ongoing money laundering scandal in B. C.
, a report commissioned by the government agreed and concluded that significant amounts of black market money was buying and selling properties in Canada, especially Vancouver and Toronto. But what has the government done to stop this? Nothing.
Money laundering is just as easy as ever. Now housing is just one component of this nightmare. What about everyday costs Canadians face?
Canada saw food prices rise by over 10% since 2022, leading nearly 2 million Canadians to visit food banks in March of 2023, a record high and double the 2019 levels. One of the reasons Canadian food prices are so high is the lack of competition. But grocery chain profits are not the reason for food inflation.
A handful of companies own nearly 80% market share. The government has historically done nothing to prevent food industry consolidation, which has led to a highly concentrated market that is able to extract maximum profits. The worst example of this is bread, which is dominated by only two players.
Not only this, but the government has assisted in increasing food prices in Canada by protecting the poultry, egg and dairy industries. This alone cost the average Canadian family nearly $450 per year. That could be the difference between making rent or not.
The federal plan puts a price on pollution that brings down emissions, and it spurs innovation on the kind of investments in emissions reduction that we need. While at the same time putting more money in the pockets of Canadians, this story of government policies leading to higher prices is nothing new. For example, the government introduced a carbon tax which makes the cost of gas and heating more expensive than ever.
Canadians spend more on gas than any other G7 country by a long shot. The carbon tax has been met with significant pushback from citizens and politicians. In fact, Liberal MPs have spoken out against the carbon tax as the number of complaints from constituents has risen dramatically.
This came to a head in the Atlantic provinces when citizens could no longer bear the cost of the carbon tax. Given the use of expensive and very dirty fuel oil, the Liberal government conceded and dropped the tax in an effort to not lose support. Recently, the government has pushed the narrative that most citizens are better off in spite of carbon taxes due to rebates.
However, the parliamentary budget officer clarified and said that citizens are worse off if you include the economic implications. But this isn't just limited to carbon taxes. Canadians experience higher prices across multiple industries because of the government.
The most glaring example is telecommunications. Here's a quick question. Are we paying too much for cell phone and internet bills here in Canada?
Absolutely. The Canadian wireless market is the most expensive in the world, seven times more expensive in Australia, and 1000 times more expensive than Finland. The craziest part is that the fourth largest player, Shaw, was recently acquired by the largest player in the country.
Rogers and the government did nothing to stop it. In most countries, such a deal would most likely be stopped or delayed. But in Canada, major corporations have extreme influence and often get away with these anti-competitive transactions.
Banking is similar. There is no competition nor options for consumers to start up. A bank is nearly impossible in Canada due to tight regulatory controls that favor large entities.
This has led to Canadians paying some of the highest banking fees in the developed world. It is estimated that Canadians pay $250 more per year on banking fees than peers in the UK and Australia. Why?
No competition. Now I could list a million more examples, but the conclusion is the same. Canada is extremely expensive.
One way to counter this is to grow the economy and introduce high paying jobs. However, Canada has struggled to do this. Since 2019, Canada has seen a decline in economic productivity.
While the US has seen a 6% increase. This decline is partly responsible for stagnant wages in Canada and reduction in the quality of life. One of the drivers for this decline is lack of private sector investment.
Canadian businesses are investing outside of Canada more than ever before. But why aren't companies investing in Canada? Simply put, they believe they can generate greater returns elsewhere, especially as they lose faith in the current Canadian regime, which is not seen as business friendly.
Another reason is lack of competition. Most major Canadian industries are controlled by a few key players. These players have no real incentive to invest, leading to reductions in productivity.
The US has low levels of market concentration across industries, leading to constant reinvestment and innovation. As companies continue to seek a competitive edge, another reason is government intervention. For example, Canada has seen a major decline in investment in the energy sector due to federal prices that penalize the industry.
Since 2014, energy investment has declined by nearly $60 billion per year. But one could argue that oil and gas is the past, and Canada should focus on future proofing its economy. Which is absolutely fair.
However, since 2016, GDP derived from technology companies has only grown with inflation, meaning it hasn't really grown at all. All efforts by the government to incentivize industrial investment have failed. But this is not simply limited to large businesses and money outflow.
Canada is seeing an exodus of startups and top talent like never before. Each year, 7% of Canadians go south of the border searching for opportunity. And why wouldn't they?
Jobs pay more. Cost of living is lower and the US is much more dynamic. The loser in this scenario is not the government, but hard working Canadians whose lives continue to become more difficult as productivity continues to decline.
The central bank will have less leeway to maintain lower interest rates, further challenging cost of living. Overall, the outlook does not look great. Let's hope that something changes soon.
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