it would not be easy to invade Taiwan and to try and to fail would probably be the end of XI jimp ping and possibly the Chinese Communist party just looking at it for a moment from the US perspective do you expect Donald Trump to further ramp up tensions and the trade war with China I mean Joe Biden kind of followed on from what the Trump Administration started when he took off it do you expect Donald Trump to pick up the ball and take it even further well certainly he's made some pretty hawkish appointments um I
Secretary of State National Security advisor these are people who have been very outspoken about the need to confront China um they think that China's taken a free ride on the global economy and on the United States has has stolen technology has ignored the rules for so long that that China needs to be confronted on this um but then I guess if if Trump has one uh diplomatic strength it's unpredict ability and you've got on the one hand the China Hawks who he's appointed and brought in there on the other hand you've got you know Elon
Musk whose businesses are heavily dependent upon China and Chinese favor uh what's going to be intriguing we've seen this shot across the boughers of of Nidia but of course two of the most high-profile investors in China are Apple and Tesla two blue chip American companies two of the best known American companies on the planet and they are heavily invested in China as as a production base as a market now you could argue that they would perhaps be juicy targets for China if it was looking for high-profile means of retaliation but then it's more complicated that
than that because Elon Musk Tim Cook have both been big cheerleaders for engagement with China so if you Xin ping sitting in the jongen high leadership compound you'd probably see apple and and Tesla as important assets that could actually help push your case in Washington so you might not wish to sanction them or to be seen to be moving against them because um they're arguing your corner so why would you do that and just to return to the issue of Taiwan I mean I feel like we ask well I ask this question every time I
I see you but given the military exercises we've seen this week does that make an invasion more likely in the next 12 months I think what we should look out for is not so much an I think an invasion would be well signposted the sheer uh Logistics of mounting an invasion in terms of the number of people the number of assets uh the limitations geography climate it's all on the side of the defenders in Taiwan it would not be easy to invade Taiwan and to try and to fail would probably be the end of Xi
Jinping and possibly the Chinese Communist Party far more likely I think is the the Anaconda strategy as it's been described um the squeezing of the island perhaps elements of an embargo stopping ships stopping planes questioning ships um an intensification of the Cyber War the information War um The Mysterious cutting of of internet cables to outlying Islands these are all gray Zone strategies which China is already engaged in and which it can intensify and the problem for any American Administration um who would seek to you know where's your red line you know where do you where
do you say that's enough because China is a master at pushing um that line and and I would see it more likely to have an intensification of these gray gray Warfare elements um over the over the coming months as a way of testing the administration and testing their uh commitment to the defense of Taiwan honestly slightly different note but related to China we're recording this two weeks from Christmas there are a lot of the classic Christmas cyber scams doing the rounds as always how responsible is China for those well that's a very good question because
the the the global Center the epicenter for cyber scamming um is now the Far East um there are a lot of special economic zones as they call which dot the Mong River I visited a couple of them when I was researching vampire state they're they're they're run predominantly by Chinese gangsters the biggest and most notorious is in Laos a place called The Golden Triangle special economic zone run by a gangster called jaia who's been sanctioned by America by Britain by numerous others for everything from drun gun running to drugs um to Wildlife trade illegal Wildlife
trade and these these special zones their biggest money spinner now are cyber scan SCS everything from the sale of dubious Investments to the infamous romance scam when you're befriended by someone who appears to uh it's a stolen profile and you end up transferring um cash or or other Assets Now China has always been very close to the Triads as as Chinese organized crime is called the party has never been shy about using them and the problem is that these special economic zones uh claim to be under the brella of the belt and Road initiative uh
they claim loyalty to China the gangsters are treated by the host governments which tend to be very weak in Cambodia in LA in Myanmar as representatives of the Chinese government and jaia and La has won a nu numerous Awards just won the other day um for so-called economic contribution to the host country um law enforcement internationally and in the region is pulling its hair out because until very recently it was very difficult to get China to take these places seriously recently there have been raids on some of the more notorious um special zones but cynics
would say this is because they have been targeting China instead of internationally uh which has sort of been regarded almost as as fur game so at this time of year when cyber scams tend to be at their height uh we're we're seeing these areas thriving and we're not seeing China sort of take the kind of action against them which certainly in law enforcement in the region believes they should and could do couple of things to finish off first of all what did you make of what happened in South Korea last week and the attempt by
the president to impose martial law it was extraordinary because I I think and many others had assume that South Korea the stability of South Korean democracy um South Korean Democratic institutions were deeply entrenched and I think it was all the more shocking to see initially um what is being now described as as an attempted coup I guess it's reassuring that that South Korea reasserted itself that democracy appears to have reasserted reasserted itself and the president is being held to account but certainly I was surprised I think it did create a lot of shock among South
Korea's um allies and also among those who had been you know impressed by the president's ability to reach out to Old enemy Japan to be more robust on China for instance geop geopolitically he was playing all the right cards with the US Administration um with the West uh but has been deeply unpopular perhaps we took our Eye Off the Ball deeply deeply unpopular domestically and just finally looking into 2025 what are you expecting in terms of foreign policy from the second Trump Administration a lot of people talk about his isolationism but do you expect him
to withdraw America from World engagements or do you think maybe that's overstated I think it's overstated I think rhetorically you'll see a lot of America First and rhetorically you'll see a lot of pressure say on Europe to uh play a bigger role whether it's in Ukraine or in or or in terms of their own of their own defense but I think one of the issues that Trump will face is everything tends to be connected because if you put pressure on Ukraine uh to enter into a a peace deal which benefits Putin then you're also sending
a signal to China about lack of resolve in supporting an ally and and that could be very a dangerous thing to do as China starts to calculate about what it should do how fast it should increase pressure around Taiwan even plan for an invasion of Taiwan so I think every everything is linked up um as I say the only thing that's predictable about Trump is is unpredictability it's hard to know how the second presidency will um will pan out um to me it was intriguing recently talking to people in Kiev um and asking them about
what they thought of another a coming Trump Administration and I'd expected them to throw their hands in the air in horror but one of the replies I had was no well actually you know dealing with Biden was deeply frustrating um the promises were slow to come the delivery was slow um it it was very difficult to to to the conditionality on the weapons the the type of weapons he was willing to supply um but at least with Trump we might get some clarity it might not be the clarity we want and if he should try
and do a deal with Putin he'll quickly learn that that's not possible and and could well be humiliated by that which of course Trump does not like at all so you know I think I'm not I I don't take the view that we're on a an inevitable slope towards American isolationism and the undermining of of Western institutions and alliances um I think the rhetoric will certainly be there but I would be cautious to predict the direction it goes in in reality once that the Trump Administration is bedded in in it's always fascinating talking to you
thank you so much for your time a pleasure thank you for watching today's episode of front line for Early Access to our videos member only q&as and live streams and sign up for a membership via the link in the description and for the latest news and breaking stories listen to times radio and follow us at the times.com
