warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and today there are no memes okay because from time to time I think it's time to be serious and I'm not by any means trying to incite fear I wish nobody here to have any kind of emotional response to today's video in fact if you can't watch a video on YouTube without being emotional then I suggest this is probably not the profession for you but we have for the third time in this cycle reached what I consider to be a critical major inflection point in the market I think we need to Rally immediately or else I will be forced to call Tops now if you've been following along with these deep Dives every Saturday you will probably already know what I'm about to say today I have been warning of this very setup for a long long time and this setup has highly specific conditions which if met for me to call a top I don't want to call a top I hope these conditions are invalidated and we can continue to stay long and strong and see further upside in markets but this is now the third time we have had to put aside the fun and games and the light-heartedness on the channel and be a lot more serious since the 2022 lows as I believe markets have reached a critical inflection point so as ever on the weekend we're going to run through this base case hypothesis of this channel that we've held now for over two years we're going to continue to do what we always do which is run through it from the top and check in on it for a major inv validations make sure that things are still going according to plan and therefore I can continue to have confidence in my posturing and in my positioning going forward but as I said we do have to pay a lot more attention to the charts at the moment we do have to be hyper aware of just how quickly the markets can confirm via my own system that we have a trend reversal in place if of course my system flashes a major Trend change in a reversal I have to respect it it's never let me down before and the entire reason I have it is so that it can get me out as close to the top as physically possible in trading so again this is by no means meant to incite any kind of fear or emotional response this is by no means intended to be received with any sense of alacrity this is simply Traders doing Trader things okay I have a system I stick to the system and again if you've been following along for any length of time at all then you probably already know exactly what that system is and exactly what I'm going to say today before we get into today I want to announce that I've been working on a mentorship program for several weeks and I'm going to be revealing more details about this on Monday at 11:00 a. m. GMT for anyone that wants to participate in the announcement on Monday you will get access to exclusive trades in real time exclusive videos swing trade ideas macro analysis and direct engagement with me I'll also be sharing a special link and a promo code in Monday's video and there will be limited spots available this is to keep it manageable and ensure the highest quality mentoring if you want to reserve a spot then comment mentorship program in the comment section and be sure to tune in on Monday for the big announcement and the opportunity to claim a promo code without further Ado the base case hypothesis on this channel was that at the lows we were too bearish we wouldd have a blowoff top to alltime highs and then we would roll over in a global recession a bare market and here's the key point during this Global recession and bear Market I have been postulating we will see for the third time in US history a period of asset price deflation when we fast forward to today you can see that we are right now about to fire this setup that I have been talking about week in week out you can see here this Scribble from last week where I was talking about we have to be watching for a second angle violation to make sure we're clear for anyone that might be new we have had a blowoff top and you can see that by three increasing angles of steepness we have a third angle breakdown a third angle violation and my system that takes me out of the trade and forces me to call a top is defined as follows a third angle violation bouncing around second angle violation confirmed with a failed cycle okay once we have all three of these which is the third angle violation the second and a confirmation via a daily cycle I am forced to call a top and a trend change in a reversal so far we have the third angle violation and we are working on a cycle low any moment now now if this cycle low is to have a counter Trend bounce and then roll over with a second angle violation only to move lower and trade below the cycle low that will be it that will be my highly specific set of conditions that is required for me to call a top and a trend change and a major reversal if the upcoming cycle low produces a counter a trend bounce that leads to a second angle violation and a failed cycle then that is it I have to call Tops so as I said earlier we have reached a critical inflection point in the markets the market must bounce here and this current cycle low that is about to form any day now must hold if it does not hold and resolve to new all-time highs then of course the only other thing it can do is roll over and fail and if it rolls over and fail as I keep saying I have to call a top here because that is my system this system has never let me down before the system is the system for a reason and it enables me to get out during a major Trend change before a markdown campaign ensues needless to say the ball case is anything other than this okay we get a cycle low we bounce we continue to push up we set new all-time highs then happy days we say that this was not the real third angle we move this to here we get long and we treat it just like the other rallies that we have caught hold of and once again we do the whole thing from higher up we sell a third angle violation we wait to see if it gets a second angle violation followed by confirmation via a daily cycle failure so it really is do or die here for the stock market again please do not interpret this as fear Panic uncertainty anything like that okay it's just simply as technical setup and if it fulfills then we act upon it well I say we I will you can do you okay by no means do you have to copy me by no means should you copy me this is not the first time that we have seen cam will come out here and say it is now or never very longtime viewers of the channel will know we did the exact same thing back here at this low right here I made a video called something like is the Melt up cancelled or is the Melt up over and in that video which is around the 27th or 28th of October you can go and look that up if you're interested you will see that I made a video just like this and I said I don't want to be alarmist I don't want to inite fear or Doom post but the market absolutely needs to Rally from here immediately or else I will be forced to call a top now needless to say we did indeed Rally from that moment we did indeed get a trend line breakout from here and camel got long here publicly with a public stop loss and then we managed to catch the ensuing move and we also had a very similar setup here with the yen trade onwi we also managed to catch a third angle in here once we got a trend line breakdown and risk started to show up I went flat and I said look if we lose this second angle okay we roll over and confirm it with a failed daily cycle we have to call Tops here and again we managed to get out of the way sidestep the draw down wait for the market to repair and prove that momentum was about to return and then once more we got long out of here with a stop just below here and we managed to catch the vul of The Upside move thereafter which is where our new third angle comes from so there is still hope okay there is no reason to be incited with fear here there's no reason to interpret this as a doom post we could just as easily bounce off of here rip to new highs camel will set a new third angle I'm sure camel will be long somewhere in here with a stop below this and if indeed there is more gas left in this Goose then camel will continue to catch this and we'll do the whole thing from higher up but it would be malpractice to just sit here and say buy the dip support will hold everyone knows what's going to happen in the future okay nobody knows and we are now as close as we have ever been to seeing a true true Trend change come in here this is all it will take okay that's it and by the time we get here I will be officially calling tops I suspect I will be amongst the first people to do it and I will be well out of the market and getting out of the way until something major changes which to be honest I don't think it will if this is to occur so we better hope that not only does a cycle low form any day now but that cycle low holds and does not fail and resolves to new alltime highs otherwise again we are going to be forced to call a trend change here I also want to pause here and suggest to you that either if you're slightly later to the video you scroll down and look through the comments or if you're early to the video come back a bit later on and scroll through the comments and take a look what you will notice is there are a lot of people that are very vocal here and the ones that are the loudest the most vocal clearly do not understand Cycles so note that make an observation scroll through the comments observe the people that are very very sure of themselves whilst clearly demonstrating a total lack of understanding for Cycles it is exactly what you'd expect to see as a setup like this is playing out so let's be clear we do not know whether this thing will resolve to the upside or the downside nobody can know but we do know we've got a very clear setup that if it prints I can react to and if it doesn't print then I can get long and strong and again we can continue to catch this market and at the same time as that is the current setup for the stock market this is the current setup for Bitcoin Bitcoin has worked its way down into a weekly cycle low and the only missing component here is for the market to bounce immediately we need to see a cycle low come in for Bitcoin and we need to see this thing continue to rip to the upside or else similarly to the stock market Bitcoin is going to be in a lot of trouble if this cycle low forms and ends up resulting in a lower high counter Trend bounce that then rolls over and here's the key part fails once again similarly to the stock market I will be forced to call a major top here I will be forced to dump the spot stack on a cycle failure and I will be forced to exit this market and assume that this indeed was the top by no means is this my base case and since I'm so bullish Bitcoin since I'm pretty convinced what Bitcoin is going to do is come rocket in out of here any moment now and move significantly to the upside it does make me wonder if the stock market is going to go with it but you can see it's the exact same setup and we are for the first time in a very long time forced to come here and say it's time to be business camel it's time to be serious it's time to understand where the lines in the sand are and how we're going to react to them because it won't take much simply bouncing out of these Cycles rolling over and failing okay and you have very little time to react to this before the whole thing Trends massively down into the next weekly cycle low and for the stock market of course we would end up in a situation like this okay and the minimum downside Target is this first angle but the funny thing is it's likely going to break down retest and resume off of that as well so risk happens fast things can change and they can change quickly but they haven't changed yet until such time as we see cycle failure I cannot possibly call Tops and this goes for both the stock market and for Bitcoin but the inverse is true the moment we get that cycle failure I am forced to call Tops and a trend reversal and I forced to exit the market so I think we've made that as clear as possible again if you've been here week in week out then you already know this and you're probably thinking wow okay we're now finally there right we've drawn some yellow squiggles we've been pulling this chart up and saying everything in here is no man's land for weeks okay and we just have to watch in case we get this and now finally it's Do or Die time okay not just for the stock market but for Bitcoin as well so intense times the too long didn't read we need to Rally immediately for Camel to remain bullish biased otherwise we're going to have to start to really entertain some downside scenarios and major top calls now on the weekend of course we also like to sprinkle in some macro as I alluded to at the start believe if this bare Market call is going to be correct and we're going to move into a global recession then once that eventually occurs there will be a short period of asset price deflation now this has been a highly contrarian and contested call it all started here when I've long been making the case that anything you do to the M2 rate of change shows up in the CPI albeit with a lag we have an updated chart here courtesy of e and you can see that both of us are kind of hypothesizing that the remainder of this downside in the Snapback in the M2 rate of change has still yet to show up in the inflation data telling us to expect a pull down in the CPI and inflation data that ultimately yields a short period of asset price deflation now many many people are upset about this and that's fine okay you do you that's what makes a market many many people think that actually what is far more likely is the resumption of inflation another uptick similarly to what we observed in the' 70s but I maintain everyone that thinks this is on the wrong side of the trade now for a while it was easy for people to Mock and Geer this idea and say camel you're wrong-footed about inflation inflation is moving up but that is simply because most people do not understand macro data experiences counter Trend wobbles against the primary Trend just as markets don't move in straight lines okay they move up they pull back they move up they pull back the same is true of macro data sets you experience counter Trend wobbles and that's all I've been making the case that this is right here the trend is down disinflationary we have experienced some counter Trend wobbles along the way but don't get it twisted the primary trend is down and I'm sure that anyone that was in doubt about this and anyone that was being toxic about this of late is now slowly but surely becoming more and more humble quiet since the true inflation data is falling off of a cliff I have been demonstrating that inflation was making lower highs up here okay with no sign of a reversal and that it was also doing so in here and then again right into Friday what do we notice from the true inflation data dropping like a stone which if you knew where to look made perfect sense the entire time remember the problem that plagues investors is they are incredibly good at only looking immediately beneath their nose they are not very good at looking out into the future future they are far too quick to look at one or two sticky prints and say h I Told You So my Bread's not getting cheaper but the reality is the trend remains heavily disinflationary and will continue because anything you do here shows up here with a lag and of course the more this continues at the hard right Edge the more we are going to start to see this reported albeit with a lag by the fed and remember the last time the FED reported data we were somewhere in this neighborhood so next month we're going to be somewhere in this neighborhood and then this neighborhood and and then the month after very very quickly investors are going to realize just what an absurd call or idea this was anyone calling for this simply does not understand how inflation works and you can see this because when you engage with people in the comments section many of them don't even understand the difference between debasement and inflation many of them don't understand velocity many people were even arguing with me that tariffs are inflationary okay goes to show just how little people actually understand about what is going on under the hood we had further confirmation here we're starting to get that roll over from the counter Trend wobble towards the resumption of the primary macro downtrend we got pce data come out on Friday below the prior readout year-over-year in line with forecast and prior readout for month over month but as my brother OV crypto here points out core PC shows the first drop since September we can take that and indeed we will take that expect this trend to continue PC of course significantly less volatile than CPI and that is why is the fed's preferred metric for inflation and of course if we're going to get a global recession we would only expect to see the unemployment rate continue to deteriorate we continue to check in on the sound recession rule making higher highs and higher lows I would love nothing more than to see a trend reversal a trend change a change in behavior and a change in structure via a new lower low but so far no sign of it looks an awful lot like a leadin phase before acceleration just like we had in all prior instances of recessions we know under the hood that there is deterioration everywhere you look recessionary looks in the temporary Help Services the hiring rate continues to have a recessionary look as well and of course everyone knows by now that the revisions are Relentless not to mention Doge stepping in here and laying off a bunch of federal employees probably going to only make this thing worse and also dampen the FED ability to hide the fact that the unemployment data is a lot worse than they are letting on and once more we understand that people continue to Parrot the idea that 4.
1% is historically low meanwhile five out of the prior 12 recessions have started at 4. 1% or lower and this one from the 50s started at just 2. 6% now I don't want to cover any more of the Deep dive data cuz it's just kind of repeating myself from last weekend what I do want to do now is spend a little bit more time on the charts here because there are some encouraging signs from the yield curve I've long been making the case that we can use the 102 and the 103 as a signal to let us know whether or not any breakdowns in the stock market are to be respected or even expected and as I say every week people always get these yield curve inversions wrong when the yield curve inverts people scream recession they're wrong when it reverts they scream recession they're wrong and that is because it is the acceleration to the upside as defined by higher high and higher low weekly closes that is synonymous with the tops coming in okay it is not until we get the acceleration to the upside that we see the tops come in and it's the same every time it requires acceleration in the yield spread before we get the tops come in so that's the 102 I also note that the 10-e 3 month is a much sharper indication and when we see acceleration to the upside you have even less time to react so any kind of weekly higher high and higher low closes in here tell us to be open to seeing breakdowns in the stock market showing up and as and when they show up if we've got acceleration in the yield spreads they are absolutely to be respected certainly once we get my signal which is the failed daily cycle that confirms it all and a true Trend change if that's occurring on an accelerating yield spread then I can have a near 100% confidence in my top call and so what happens if we zoom in and get a real-time update well so far we do have higher high and higher low swings okay but this is not yet looking accelerative just yet you can see here this was the acceleration period we saw that marked the c19 plunge if we go back to 2008 this is a highly accelerative move again synonymous with a top coming in and if we go all the way to the.
com Bubble once more you can see highly accelerative ruthless upside move in the yield spreads today however looks a little lackluster which of course is good tells us that on a balance of probabilities we don't have to be sounding the alarm just yet it even tells us on a balance of probabilities particularly if this yield spread can continue to trade sideways or even move to the down side that the most likely path here is actually a cycle low that resolves to new highs Happy Days no top call from camel Longs will be entered once more and once more we will set a third and final blowoff top angle in which we use to sell the trend line breakdown and take profit needless to say that also fits really nicely from a Bitcoin perspective because we are expecting a weekly cycle low to yield a roughly 100% upside move out of that Weekly cycle low which should be due to form any moment now again if the yield spreads are not going to accelerate to the upside then the star seem to be aligning here for these upcoming cycle lows to yield significant upside moves if we now examine the 10year 3mon yield spread looky looky here weekly close back below the zero line this is absolutely wild we inverted reverted and now have inverted once more so tells me at least to keep an open mind for now about seeing the upcoming cycle lows resolve to new highs that does not mean of course we don't want to be hyper aware of where things go wrong of course we do because it won't take much as I said but until such time as the market proves this to us then I do think at least based on the yield spreads we can continue to have confidence that not only has the stock market possibly got some more upside here but so has Bitcoin I'm sure that most of you are probably pleased to hear that so heading into the stock market again it seems to be Do or Die doesn't it I do think we can play a cycle low reversal here if it can confirm in the next few sessions and if it can then that stop loss will also become the ball Market inv validation right that will become the Line in the Sand I was talking about where if we do roll over and trade below it then I have to call Tops and Trend reversals but since we can have a nice tight stop here and be optimistic based on the yield spreads I don't see any reason why this upcoming cycle low once it confirms is not tradable now the same is somewhat true of the NASDAQ although the NASDAQ is looking a little bit worse for where it had this fake breakout and it came all the way down and traded below this daily and weekly cycle low however this is not a true failed weekly cycle just yet and thus there is no true breakdown and Trend reversal signal just yet nor can I call it top here because when we flip this onto the weekly time frame okay the weekly close was above here so whil we Wicked it and failed we did not get a true weekly cycle failure here and thus so far there is still no exit signal from me but as I'm sure you can appreciate it really won't take much here it would only take next week's candle to close below this and that is it we will have satisfied the conditions for me to be forced to call a top here okay we would have had the third angle breakdown the bounce around between the third and the second angle the second angle VI a followed by a failed daily and weekly cycle and if we get that then as I've been saying over and over and over again today that is my setup my specific criteria for calling tops and a trend change so you can see how close we are now especially on the NASDAQ we are really down to the wire this thing needs to come ripping out of here or else it's going to roll over and of course if it rolls over I will be forced to call Tops as I keep saying so I do think there's a thesis to be long here if we can get a confirmed swing and a reversal but again wherever that stop and up going which will be below the lowest low that will also become ball Market inv validation for gold gold continues to play ball quite nicely here I was talking about getting two drives into a cycle low and then confirming it with a trend line break and getting underneath a cycle low trade here the positions that we got in the members section such as silver and the miners all of those I'll show you silver for example the stops can come up from here underneath wherever this cycle low forms for gold and for silver we can add to positions here move the stops up increase exposure without taking additional risk so the same is true for the gold and the gold mining positions Happy Days there gold continues to play ball continues to act quite nicely for us the dollar as I was showing the other day our indicator has picked a cycle low it has now confirmed and has broken out so happy days there and now with the full weekly cycle low behind us it rather implies doesn't it that we are going to see a continuation of an upside rip here which puts us in a very strange situation in which we've got the dollar running with gold with silver with the stocks and potentially with Bitcoin most people think this is impossible however you only have to Overlay some charts and go and do some research and you see that this can happen for extended periods of time the last couple of things I wanted to point out is note we have the yields selling off here okay the yields the bond market is going to start to force the fed's hand and force the FED to cut because once more we maintain that policy is overly restrictive particularly with inflation coming off unemployment deteriorating and so as the yields continue to come off this should allow a risk on moment this should also put rate cuts on the table for the upcoming meetings and once more we can sit here and say tell that to the bond market last but not least Bitcoin has the first potential candidate for a major swing low Perfect Day 60 here on the 28th of Feb all we need to see is a little bit more upside recovery of this upward sloping red support line here and I think you will see me get long here put a stop below this Wick somewhere and Target a 2X from the ultimate low which is about 78k so that should put us somewhere in the neighborhood of 160k for the upside Target here and again if you're a level three member then you know we're going to be adding some crypto related stocks to help capture additional beat up from this upcoming move so in summation I think so far everything seems to be going according to plan we have to again be serious and mindful of where those major invalidation and Trend change calls will occur until such time as they do then I remain cautiously optimistic and I do think all of these cycle lows that are due to form in the next few days will be tradable lows for me as ever we'll get underneath the trades I'll notify members in real time and we'll set a public stop loss and invalidation level so we can't possibly cheat it if you are potentially going to be interested in the mentorship program then type mentorship program in the comment section and other than that please do tune in on Monday for the announcement at 11:00 a. m.
