@cryptomichnl What’s Next for Bitcoin & the Global Financial System?

He everyone sorry to interrupt but this is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on everyone's nerves but it's really important to me please if you can like the channel and also subscribe it helps me a lot to get the best guess in the world for you guys so click like And subscribe appreciate it thanks it's going to Dewar the existing system there's 500 million Crypt brokerage accounts younger people have Zero chance of getting up the ladder the median 401K in the United States of a baby boomer is $150,000 they're so Metro ball crypto and macroeconomic

Visionary who has been in the crypto space since 2013 and has experienced all the crypto Madness and then before you know you're trading smoking chicken fish or whatever the you're doing over the past decade he has become one of the most influential voices in the space and is teaching People how to avoid making mistakes and secure a better future for them eles with his company real Vision even though when I wrote the first bloody piece I said it's going to a million bucks I ended up selling out at one point from 2020 onwards I've had

nothing but 100% of my liquid net worth in crypto if this cycle for instance goes higher and longer than we all expect it might tumble over the entire Financial system that we used to have this is very Similar to the 201617 cycle mhm I worry more about The Leverage it creates in the system why are the coming years so important in your view so the first one R Bitcoin is currently facing 100K or between shooting and going live it might have broken 100K and goal is reaching new all-time Highs but people are saying it's super

expensive so my first question would be How do you change people mindsets when it comes to these two and what would you say to those people saying that Bitcoin is super expensive the issue is is people have this anchoring bias on price so they think a 100 is more expensive than one but in this weird world of crypto everything's fractionalizing about what are the percentage potential returns going forwards so let's say Bitcoin usually Does about a 3X from the previous half maybe more depending where you are on the cycle so you should be thinking about

that return as opposed to the price CU anybody can put 10% of their investments in or 10% of their wages in whatever it's a fractionalized asset so don't look at the number look at what you can buy of it and the percentage potential returns so many people anchor on things that are super cheap because they think well one Day it could be the value of Bitcoin and therefore I'm going to make a million x Returns the world doesn't work that way uh it works you know Bitcoin is really the anchoring for the whole space and

over time right this space is a$3 trillion asset class today if I extrapolate the trend rate of growth of adoption or Price or market cap you get to somewhere like a 100 trillion by 2034 10 years so we're only 3% of that Journey MH so is it expensive or not expensive it's probably very cheap and at every point and I've been around this cycle I've been in crypto since 2013 everybody thinks oh my God I'm paying the high and when you look back when I paid the highs at 200 back in well it actually went

up to a th000 and went back down again back in 2013 I'm like I paid the highs and then I look back now and it's 100,000 that's the thing about exponentiality people don't Understand they see the cyclicality but they don't understand the the secular exponential Trend I think uh well I've been going all in into crypto the first of January 2018 uh which was a uh rough ride two yeah well I mean once it goes through those highs is the actual moment when the confidence kicks in but currently we're in such a weird state where

Bitcoin has proven itself in existence becoming an adult class maybe Governments are adopting Bitcoin as well but on the other hand um media is so negative about Bitcoin is still saying it's either a py or a bubble or I I can understand that people are getting influenced or being influenced by media like what would you rather see when you see Bitcoin being discussed in the media or is it something you're actually seeing at this point because I feel like a lot of people will be prevented by going into crypto through those Narratives so we need

to look at what media now so you know we see CNBC in the US is actually quite Pro crypto so they crossed the Rubicon so that's the kind of Boomer investor generation and they kind of get a lot of exposure to it the real push back is from two sources the financial times and The Economist and because they are The Gatekeepers to the centralized world of Finance they are the power Brokers of knowledge it doesn't exist unless it's In the Ft or The Economist has an opinion on it but here is a world that is

inverted to what they know this is a world that came from the bottoms up from retail from Individual investors and not from the power Brokers and Gatekeepers of Wall Street and so for them it's a very threat to their understanding and existence so you know what people are getting exposed to is on one side this traditional you know multiple hundreds of years old Media just endlessly snarking and cynical and terrible about it but they kind of want the attention as well because they know there's more attention in this space and everything else but they're seeing

the world of podcast distributive media uh New Media all becoming much more focused around this this is the battle that even Elon is playing on Twitter it's you know the there's a change of of Gatekeepers it's gone towards the individual and away From the centralized um and so that is a battle that had to happen anyway it's the battle we've been having in crypto with all of finance and we're seeing one by one incredibly all of Finance caving in and saying yes this is a better system it's an extraordinary thing that I never thought i'

well I did think I'd see but just seeing it play out from 2013 onwards it's been amazing that power that this thing has done is it's like a massive super massive black hole One by one everybody comes across into this new world because the returns are better the opportunities are better um and the system is just more robust it's just a better way of building finance and the internet hi R here listen I think we've got until 2030 before the economic Singularity arrives now it might not be the exact date but it's around then so

we have about six years years to figure out how to unfuck our future I've put together a report to Help you called prepare for 2030 it's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030 so just click on the link below and start your journey now I think it's just every cycle it's my third one now as well I started a cycle later than you started but every cycle especially this one is absorbing a new group of investors and I think in web 2 you've seen that

social media is already taking a lot of the older media out and A lot of people are diverting into YouTube or act to get the news that they want to see the only thing that's on a concern for me at this stage is that I'd rather want to see Bitcoin and crypto being discussed in education way more than what it is currently it's still the oldfashioned system that we're discussing where hey it's better to put your money into the saving accounts and to keep your money there for safety like I think that that is still

something That we need to achieve and another thing is what we need to achieve is divert with Bitcoin and crypto as two topics I think a lot of media are still combining the two but they're completely different what would you say to to these topics and the difference between the two so the first one is there is an industrial savings complex whose job is to say listen what you need is diversification and you need us to help you manage it it's far too Complicated for you and in return we'll give you 8 or 9% returns

but they're not understanding that Their audience has changed their audience is not baby boomers who did pretty well in their careers and had some savings even though the Baby Boomers are actually very skewed there's a whole bunch with no savings at all because the system let them down too which was their savings never equated to an ability to retire The median 401K in the United States of a baby boomer is $150,000 they're so MH but you see the average is Miles bigger it's over million bucks why because it's skewed by the super rich but then

when you go to younger people younger people 8% returns considering they've come out of University and debt considering house prices are 10 times incomes or more have zero chance of getting up the ladder on an 8% return so there's the the Boomer Industrial savings complex trying to tell them what works for those guys but not who works what works for the customer and the customer the client has a very different need and so what they've done is that trust broke down in 2008 and 2012 in Europe the trust of banking the trust of intermediaries trust

of the middleman Trust of the system and people have taken into their own hands and it's not just in crypto we see the massive rise Of retail trading of options in um tech stocks MH right it's the same phenomena people have been have had to become more speculative in order to get ahead it's a real thing so I think that that is an important thing to note it's all about what's the incentive and for whom and we have misaligned incentives right now the Boomer industrial savings complex wants one thing which is your fees and we

want another which is performance and they're not going to give it to us because Volatile assets don't make as much fees as stable Assets in massive size it's a simple equation well I mean you've got a lot of exchanges in crypto outperforming a lot of web two companies I think numbers of coinbase are way better than the Deutsche Bank for instance because the the the size of the team is just way smaller but the amount of fees that they generate through either spot trading or leverage trading which of course in Europe is still relatively hard

to use at this point out of C customer protection I think um a lot of Southern European people have been using leverage trading on altcoins well I just feel like why would you want to do that so in all Essence the technology is just so fast grasping the old system right yeah so here is a stat for you there are 500 million brokerage accounts in the world in traditional Finance that's India that's China it's the US that's Europe 500 million there's 500 million crypto brokerage accounts yeah says a lot already it's it's it's going to

Dewar the existing system because it's accessible it's approachable it's not there's no Gatekeepers it's it's everybody with a mobile phone anywhere in the world can use it whether you're in Nigeria whether you're in the Philippines whether you're in Amsterdam so 500 million so we're neck and neck right now and as you say The companies in the space if they get it right it's so much more this higher margin higher volumes um and secular growth while Finance itself is not really growing in fact you know if you got friends working in investment Banks they don't get

paid as much as they used to the job opportunities are less they employ less people there's a secular headwind in finance and a secular Tailwind in crypto there's a good one that you're bringing That one on because your background is also the oldfashioned finance of course what made you decide to jump over and get well I wouldn't say full-time crypto but I think gradually you went more into it like what made you jump over so one of the things if I have an ability to do anything it's kind of to live in the future a

bit and so when I was in the investment banking World working for Goldman Sachs I had ridden a Secular Tailwind the secular Tailwind was the r of Rise of derivatives the rise of Finance the rise of hedge funds okay so secular Tailwind makes any idiot look good in their career so that made look good in my career the next phase was I could see that hedge funds were becoming the big thing and you could get paid more by working for hedge fund than an investment bank because Investment Bank once you get relatively senior it becomes

a really narrow point of the People who get get paid the really big bucks and it's a very doggy dog world but hedge funds were broader new growing fast attracting tons of assets so I made that switch but when I was in the hedge fund industry I realized that the institutions had come in as investors and what they were asking for was lower volatility and lower volatility means lower returns and that meant me as a portfolio manager would earn less money Mhm but the owners of the business will get rich because it becomes an asset

Gathering business and not an asset performance business so that's when I thought okay what is the next part of this secular Trend well every body starting a hedge fund now so I started Global macro investor moved to Spain started Global macro investor which was selling my experience back to hedge funds and because there was a huge growth of hedge fund this thing grew on Me but that debt bubble was still coming and I was writing about it and seeing it and that was the big secular Tailwind for hedge funds for finance industry everything else was

the big debt bubble then it blew up M and then Occupy Wall Street then the indignados Spain the whole Cyprus banking blow up the Greece default all of it I realized okay that's the end of that system and that's when I went around the world trying to start the world's safest bank with a bunch of Family offices and we actually got stopped we all it was a simple idea we want a bank that only holds your assets in us treasuries directly with the Federal Reserve so no fractional banking yeah and the D supposed to be

and the Dallas fed stopped us said great idea guys it's a brilliant idea we never and nobody will ever give you a license we had the chairman of the FDIC as the chairman of a bank we were buying and uh I said why Not and he said because you'll take all the deposits from the system yeah says a lot so I'm like okay and that I wrote about it in global macro investor back in 2012 and that's when a friend of mine pointed me in the direction of crypto so I invested I wrote the first

ever macro strategy piece uh ever written on on how to Value Bitcoin back in 2013 and published that and took a bunch of famous macro guys down the rabbit hole Um and then when we launched real Vision in 2014 I'd already kind of integrated as part of my macro framework of where the world was going but over time even though when I wrote the first bloody piece I said it's going to a million bucks but discount myself it's going to go to $100,000 it was $200 I said this is the best macro trade of all

time I ended up selling out at one point and then buying back but at a higher Price and really it was not until 2020 that I realized that if I divided the NASDAQ by Bitcoin it was down 99.998% and all assets and it was a super massive black hole and this was not going to stop because of the network adoption of an incentivized um protocol layer or the new infrastructure of the internet but it has incentives built in like you're using the internet you get paid for it m It's like of course this is going

to just keep destroying everything in its path and so after that from 2020 onwards I've had nothing but 100% of my liquid net worth in crypto what's your um what's your goal with like your portfolio like the overall discussion you see at this point is um some people at least it will get get to that in a little bit are looking to take profits at the end of 2025 but I always say Define profits Because are you looking to accumulate more of your Fiat or as Jack M says uh looking to accumulate more Bitcoin and

everything that I do needs to outperform bitcoin or I just keep Bitcoin as it yields me 63% on a year basis what's your goal with this lifestyle h what's the point of money right money really is an exchange for goods and services so there there are lifestyle chips or lifestyle ratchets that you you Might want whether it's a house or car or whatever it is that your personal goals are and those are the things that are the markers on the way that give you a sense of achievement and it's not about Prestige or showing off

it's just what what you want um and so you want that because we're humans it's the sort of thing we like you also want enough cash because crypto can be very volatile so you either have to have an Income or you need some fit because we have to spend in fit and it's never good you don't want to be spending in the down cycle of Bitcoin because you're you're spending it too cheap right and then the rest you keep in I mean the entire last cycle I didn't take anything out at all CU I've got

income I didn't need to and I just bought into the downside of the cycle and so it compounded my returns much faster so I was back to Alltime high in p l well before the markets were because I'd just been buying into the cycle I've spent some time with a friend of mine this weekend who bought Bitcoin at $3 and bought an enormous amount and he's still got the position wow and he's a he he only thinks in Bitcoin terms now for everything um and he only cash and Bitcoin and he's worth billions of dollars

from one trade the great probably the greatest trade of all time I can get it if you like if you take profits at some point to accumulate a little bit more cash because it's still relatively hard to spend your Bitcoin and there's still the general thesis to not spend your Bitcoin because you can increase your living standard over the next decades by accumulating more so what we generally say is that okay during an upwards trending Market we want to make more Bitcoin Co by accumulating that through altcoins and During a b Market we sell to

cash to buy back in lower again to make more Bitcoin or like more gold whatever you prefer at least not Fe fiat currency because fat currencies are devaluing over time is it also comparable to your strategy in that sense or yes but I don't use Bitcoin um because you know I think because of my experience in asset allocation over time I can generally choose the outperforming major asset That doesn't make me a good you know mean coin picker or small picker but you know generally I get the big trends relatively right um so I think

that I can outperform over time but if I were to step away and say I'm not going to look at any screens anymore I'm going to go and travel the world for two years I would buy Bitcoin you know Bitcoin you know so I don't think it's wrong to think of Bitcoin as the base currency but it's like US dollars are the based Currency yet we buy US Stocks why because we want to outperform the dollar US real estate you know if you think of a family office from the Netherlands that buys real estate in

the US first they buy dollars and then they try and outperform the dollars I know people don't think in these terms but this is exactly what we do um which is why if you're buying emerging market stocks and the current is weak it becomes a problem because the Stock may go up but in dollar terms it's gone down or in Euro terms so we do need to think in this cross currency way and what our based currency is so I don't disagree um I would do the same and maybe at one point in my life

I will do that but that's you know I'm in the wealth accumulation phase and not the semi-retirement phase because I agree the biggest opportunity of all time so yeah I agree on that stance and I think uh I'm at this point I'm still Relatively young I would say so I can happily Go full de in Risk on with altcoins I think it's still the best time in the cycle to do so uh but forward looking um why crypto like what is the actual upside there why not just invest into tech stocks that are likely going

to do well too or any other well on a risk adjusted return they're actually better they massively outperform as I said the NASDAQ is down 99.97% if you take it even from 2017 the Nasdaq's down 50% um you know so it's it's an extraordinary outperformance so it's a bit of a superpower but you take some volatility to go with it but really all this is is a technology that has a built-in incentive system in it so it's behavioral economics meets the infrastructure lay of the internet so if you think about and it also changes lives

and it gives it brings people into the financial System and gives people opportunities you know there's a very larger reason why this matters but it also matters just for the internet in a digital age we need to be able to transfer store and record value and value could be everything from our ID to a contract to a store of value like Bitcoin so it's a very broad concept that's very necessary for the internet as we move forwards into a more digital Aid particularly with AI um coming at us Fast but it's also the financial inclusion

side it's also the fact that people can access dollars via stable coins anywhere in the world I mean these things are revolutionary and the adoption of this technology is twice the speed of the internet and it has been you know I rebase them both from 5 million wallets versus 5 million IP addresses and look wallets is not a perfect thing but nor is IP addresses we've all got multiple IP addresses and multiple wallets okay so it's broadly similar but the growth has been twice the speed of this technology and so it goes up twice as

much as the NASDAQ I mean it's pretty simple really MH yeah I mean the only concern that I have is that how long can it still go up as fast as it went like at some point you've got the exponential curve and your yelds will just go down along with it right because markets expand markets Keep on expanding yes so for Bitcoin that will become a very real thing earlier but for the entire space if it's going to 100 trillion and it's only three trillion today you know will Bitcoin dominance be 50% of a 100

trillion Market no you know where will it be where will it settle as an asset class we don't know but let's say it'll have the equivalent or larger than gold whenever gold is at that stage Let let's say it's 30 trillion so there's the 70% that's going to make an extraordinary amount of money MH so I think the S curve applies to to the whole Space overall but the returns are still relatively High to come because we're still pretty early in most of this um and we see that over time so bitcoin's returns are coming

down eth was higher still is higher but it's coming down salana is higher but We'll come down next cycle you know sui or whatever's coming up this cycle um it will still have a couple of acceleration Cycles then it slows down but you know what are we going to argue about that the returns have gone from 150% a year to 60% a year I mean this is La La Land in finance right nobody gets given these opportunities what is a harder thing is why even start a business because I don't know almost any business That

consistently generates between 50 and 150% a year returns and you actually don't need to do anything you just need some Capital MH and I think there are a few segments where you can start your own business and one of them is crypto I mean if you start a I think there are still not many companies doing actual work in crypto you see a lot of web two Founders jumping over into web three and BAS basically using a token and AI to Improve their web two business um and I think there are some very interesting verticals

where you can still outperform Bitcoin in terms of performance but if you start any sort of retail outlet I think you're better off just spending the money into Bitcoin and just wait for the next few years to come um and I think it's a very give you as income yeah so it gives you terminal value but it doesn't give you income so that's the one issue what do you think About defi on bitcoin then look it's coming fast because you know I've always said and I think I was the person who invented the term pristine

collateral um it's great collateral so of course if you can lend or borrow out I mean we do it in the Art Market we do it for any asset that is deemed to be decent quality collateral so no reason why not I mean however we are just creating leverage and human love sex and leverage as the two most The two most powerful forces in a human mind for some ridiculous reason and um if I rephrase that question does Bitcoin actually need defi so let's say you're the guy who bought Bitcoin at $3 and you have

billions of dollars of assets lying around and you get zero return on them in terms of yield to pay your lifestyle I I can see why people want to and you can do it in a pretty safe way And there's a few platforms that do that um so I get it for big holders for financial holders Banks Asset Management firms I can see why they do it um it's not my preferable path because my rule number one is don't lose control of your tokens MH and any Leverage in some larger draw down means that you

end up getting taken away and your coins don't belong to you anymore and then you're out of the game and that's if it's going from three trillion to 100 Trillion rule number one is don't get out of the game or don't get taken out of the game well I've got an interesting one to answer to that actually had an internal conversation about uh Michael seder yeah um in essence he is accumulating more Bitcoin and Bitcoin and Bitcoin through just overleveraging his own company that's like it depends on how you look at it I know but

at some point if he keeps on doing this his his cost basis is going to be relatively High like you've been adding at like 97k and he probably is going to add at 150k and just keeps on adding like what like is what is your vision on that strategy like is there at some point is it enough or can you just keep on adding to your balance sheet and having that Bitcoin mentality from a philosophical level is it right for one entity to control all the Bitcoin okay that's something a good if You're true to

what Bitcoin is about there should be a limit where you say well I don't need to do that but let's assume that he doesn't blow up because of the leverage because the cost of borrowing is zero for him uh um and he's got enough assets to cover stuff yes some assets might have to get sold whatever I worry more about the leverage it creates in the system because micr strategy is trading under a huge premium mhm that premium is somebody else's Arbitrage and so whether they're buying Bitcoin selling micro strategies or buying the options from

the convertible note and that are very cheap and selling more somewhere within that system is an enormous amount of Leverage happening Y and I don't worry so much about micro strategies I worry about the unwind of the other side of the trade CU people focus on the micro strategies because it's flashy but this Is what happened with grayscale grayscale was trading a huge premium people didn't realize it was creating gigantic leverage and everything was one trade and there was one big customer three hours capital yeah and when they were forced out of the trade it

took everybody down including Genesis who were the arm of Ray scale right said they didn't see it coming either nobody knew there was one customer and that's That's very typical of a leverage blowout so we're creating fragilities in a system the other issue that I've got is there's the two times levered micro strategies ETFs mhm everybody's trading those that it's causing probably a large part of the premium plus a bunch of Europeans who can't buy Bitcoin in their pension PL so they're buy so there's a bunch of Premium being driven by this stuff but what

happens when the market turns and the two times levered guys Sell yeah r twice as fast in an illiquid Market to the downside before you know micro strategies is trading at a discount to nav that blows up all of the people who've been in the Arbitrage trades you know there's all sorts that can happen that people don't think about and I've been I've been in financial markets 34 years and I've seen this repeat and repeat and repeat and repeat well we've seen it with uh what Was it back in Germany in 2011 the uh automobile

company Vol yeah yeah it happened the exact way around long-term Capital Management exactly the same that was so big that the FED had to cut rates because it was such a mess really yeah it happens endlessly well if you if you discuss this topic and you said at the beginning that do you want one entity to have all the Bitcoin we've got a whole new group of investors from the US coming in which is bundled under the Name of Black Rock Fidelity or the big ones um which is getting access through the ETF that is

the first interesting one having all the institutional investors getting access to bitcoin and ethereum finally ethereum gets some inflow too you could question whether that is good or bad and then secondly um you've got an hedge fund background and actually we were at the derit podcast earlier discussing options trading how is it Going to change the markets going forward as in a lot of asset managers are going to use options to hatch their positions does it change the Dynamics of Bitcoin or would it be making it more boring this concentration within the ETFs is interesting

because I think the finance system thinks that they have wrestled control of this decentralized Beast mhm and they're probably thinking you know we've done a pretty good job boys we almost that was a close one we Almost had a parallel Financial system but we've got control of it how I see it is it's actually a trojan horse because once you go into that world you end up going further into that world and then before you know you're trading smoking chicken fish or whatever the you're doing in the space you know it's like that's that's the

path everybody takes right because you go out the returns you go out the risk curve so I think it's a trojan horse Um again I don't really like the con ation but I also like giving people access in the ways that they want access and things like pension plans and stuff like that the use of options I don't I don't know um now we've had obviously derit huge so there's a huge markeet in options already but this will be this will dwarf that um it's good because it takes some of the risk out of derit

being the only option exchange which is very healthy um But what it's going to be a battle between who uses the options whether it's the option overwrites who dampen the volatility so that would be institutions who along the Bitcoin ETF and then sell calls against it right that's very typical to create a yield out of Bitcoin because they want a yield because they got pensioners to pay and they that you know yield is very important to them the flip side is what Is the power of retail and their ability to punt options and so far

it seems the balance of power these days is in the retail hands so in which case we can create a lot of short squeezes gamma squeezes all sorts of stuff um now it probably dampens the volatility on the downside I've got a working hypothesis that we all think we're going to be given the gift of all gifts again which is Bitcoin fulls 75% and we get to buy it down 75% or SS down 95% and it's become so obvious that we're just like well at top of the cycle I sell out I buy it back

and I become hilariously Rich my fear is that doesn't happen this time we don't withdraw massive amounts of liquidy from the system and that 401k buyers of Bitcoin balance up the selling effects yes we might get the blow up of the micro strategies trade whatever is there's going to be messy but the Ability to use options put options I think will balance out some of this so my biggest fear is not the down 75% we're all used to that it's the down 40 and we miss it I mean this is so interesting as in first

of all you've got a bunch of people that came into crypto in the previous cycle and they are like yes so October 2025 I'm going to sell during that period that group is relatively large expecting the peak to be at that Exact moment already talking about it currently so it's going to be either way earlier or substantially later it's not going to be the exact same scenarios everybody expects it to be ask most people who were in last cycle and that was their first cycle they have tremendous PTSD because they looked back on the 200

17 cycle and 2017 the market peaked in Mark before tax season it then corrected so it Peaked at 2,000 it then kind of corrected and then it went up it it went up 10x in four months you had china correction in between as well and so last time I also thought okay we saw the tax season correction then the rally back up it was a big correction down 50 mhm then it shot up and it's like okay it's going to be 2017 again and it wasn't because the central banks were St to withdraw liquidity and

the business Cycle had been brought forward by the massive liquidity was starting to come away and that was the end of that so this time when you go on X and you see people they are so PTSD by that that I think that many will sell taxes in March and then get trapped out mhm and then they'll expect an early Peak and maybe it does Peak from my liquidity work it still suggests that it Peaks at the end of the year towards the end of the year but it depends what Happens to liquidity but if

that is the case I just think the risks are here and then the risk is 2026 is the people who then sold out maybe they screwed it up and maybe they got out like I did in 2017 way too early you then try and buy it back and you end up buying back at much higher prices which is what happens to me I ended up buying back in covid in that crash and I got in at 6 half thousand but i' sold out at 2,000 mhm I me and I done the job I sold that

into strength and bought into weakness difference was in a secular exponential uptrend the difference between that Peak and and that trough was like this it's so I mean it's super hard to time the mark as well uh and I think that the previous Cycles have shown that the lexity of the markets are going up significantly I mean there are more variables that we need to take into account when we trade into crypto or in any asset class at This point um and especially if you look from the macro perspective I think crypto is having a

lot of good factors right now Trump is getting into the the white house uh at least his promises are very productive for crypto in the short term China is increasing liquidity by a magnitude we've not seen for years um so would it be like you often phrase banana Zone I think Plan B is saying super cycle they are all like some sort of potential cycles that we could have but Is the the macroeconomic framework going to push Bitcoin and crypto further ahead this time than in the previous Cycles we we can't tell because liquidity is

actually the dominant Factor mhm so right now we look at the business cycle using the ism survey it's below 50 which means the manufacturing is still Contracting so okay we're nowhere near tightening Financial conditions they did tighten because the dollar went up and rates went up but the Federal Reserve And the governments need to change that because we need liquidity in the system so even if it went up every single month for 9 months it's still September next year before you get somewhere near a peak in the business cycle and crypto tends to kind of

just that tends to be a rolling top and crypto tends to have a rolling top around that so I think it's longer than people Imagined so it's later in the year people because people are so scarred by last time around again and if I look at on a probabilistic basis there was when we took off so aggressively in 2023 I'm like okay look there is a chance of that we frontload the cycle but then we had a eight-month correction and that kind of put it back on track um and so therefore I think we've got

two odds now is does this look like a more normal cycle what that means I don't even know anymore but let's say let's say 250,000 Bitcoin mhm or do we get something like 2017 in 2013 which is something a bit Wilder and I think the probability has gone up for me of that but you know I don't make predictions on this stuff because it's pointless and you just get trolled on the internet for making predictions um but probabilistically speaking from what I know today and what I know about Liquidity if and the regulations and everything

else the probability is that we're going to get a more violent upside cycle with lots of volatility in the middle like liquidity has been falling for two months now three months it's falling quite sharply and that's whether you use Global M2 or whether you use our um Global liquidity index total liquidity uh that we produce a global macro investor it Maps really well on Bitcoin now these correlations Don't last forever in a perfect form but it's been perfect and it would suggest that the market Peaks sometime December end of the year early Jan and sharply

corrects which is exactly what happened last time Trump came in when Trump got voted in the dollar screamed higher rates went higher he actually came in rates went lower the dollar went lower but that runup over the Trump getting voted in in 2016 caused a 35% correction in January Of 2017 in the end it was all noise but you know we're going to get to that we're going to get to very frothy you know some people are worried it's happening now as we speak maybe doesn't look like it according to my work it would suggest

later but you know who the hell knows but we'll get one of those to come then we'll have the post us tax season version as well because in the end people are going to have a lot of gains And if they've switched anything around they're going to have to pay the tax man a lot of money and they have to sell stuff to realize profits and that that's that kind of selling May and go away idea that generally Works tax season well it worked this time again uh the summer was like the most boring I've

experienced it in I think since I started in crypto yeah and it's I know it's very hard to to make predictions where the markets are going to go to at Least if you look at the crypto markets Bitcoin has seen a very strong uptrend since well the FDX crash in November 2022 but on the other hand there are a lot of things putting down the crypto markets at this stage which is we're still in a relatively High interest rate climate that yes you're mentioning PMI and that's Contracting for let's say 6 to8 months already and

it's going down even more but the FED is very stagnant on the interest rates and not really Looking to cut it a lot in 2025 unless the labor market data is going to keep being terrible and I think the past few months we've seen a substantial drop in job openings in ADP all those data points would that probably Kickstart another a strong move in anything related to crypto as in there is some sort of correlation with eat and the yields right so that is the GL the global Liquidity right and that's or we use fed

net liquidity is another one either way or financial conditions even better Financial conditions that we use are basically rates the Dollar Plus oil those are the kind of three variables that really matter for the global economy oil has been falling so that's dampened the issue somewhat but the dollar screamed higher as did rates now that has a lag on the economy so we're talking about having a lag on crypto we Probably see a slower economy in q1 or Q2 than people are exping which plays into the idea that you've got is I think the market

is underpricing Cuts now by the fed and they kind of go through through this madness every time this happens they're like well it's one and done or well it's just a little bit they're never going to do it and then eventually they have to because they got to roll 10 trillion of debt as does every other country in the world and Financial conditions are far too tight for the Chinese if the Chinese don't get their economy going we have no export market we've got no bar of treasuries you know Europe is struggling as well Germany's

in a total mess mhm so we need to ease Financial conditions and they all know it and they've had to hold on as long as possible because inflation was had been higher in the previous cycle and it Lo Cost everybody the election every government across Europe Pretty much around the world that was in over covid got voted out why because prices went up so much on people so they're very nervous about that but we've now got a new regime um so I I think you're right I think the probability is the economy is weaker than

expected and that gives them the green light that they've been after forever I mean is there U I think what is my PTSD is that um crypto basically boomed during Co where the World completely got destroyed and crypto did well and I kind of get the feeling that we're again seeing the world just being destroyed and crypto starts to do well again is it like no I don't think that this is very similar to the 201617 cycle mhm um rates went up once in 2016 and then stopped didn't go up again in fact the FED

didn't even put any liquidity in but the Chinese had to because the dollar Had been too strong prior so they really had to stimulate and then the Europeans and the UK then had brexit and they started simulating so the US didn't need to be doing it same in 14 and 15 I mean rates didn't move there was a bit of QE that came out of Europe um obviously from the banking thing the draggy everything it takes but then after that crypto the amount of movement in crypto doesn't need a massively large total amount of liquidity

people just over Focus on the FED over focus on balance sheets just as long as Global liquidity keeps R Rising by 8% crypto will still do 100% a year it's kind of so I worry less about it I think again people have an anchoring bias on the last cycle but having seen three of them the last one was the outlier and crypto went up less and finished earlier so therefore that kind of doesn't make sense if if it's just the liquidity cycle I think a lower Volatility cycle in terms of the economy actually creates more

risk R taking than a higher volatile cycle like Co I think you're saying something very interesting there which is that previous cycle felt completely different than 2017 for me I think if you look at the terms or or the groups of participants in this cycle it's a whole new dimension compared to the previous one and 2021 wasn't really a group of new investors coming into crypto it was a bunch of Venture capitalists and funds just jumping into crypto just trading it and that's about it now we have actual institutional investors governments getting into the markets

which in some way if you on top of that combine it with the amount of depth that we have 208 it creates a vibe that we might have the final easy cycle and then perhaps have a copycat of 1929 is where all of a sudden a dep bubble Bursts can't happen why so what happens in a debt deflation is the value of collateral Falls mhm in excess of the loans and so it gets called on yeah and the collateral gets liquidated what they learned in 2008 was a very simple trick debase the currency and the

asset optically goes up that that was the whole draggy thing that was everything so we cannot do that because We know the mechanism the US that is you know can it happen in individual countries whatever yes but not the us because it has the reserve currency it has the fiat currency so the 1929 scenario cannot happen it simply can't happen we've taken that left tail out however let's say Okay Bitcoin goes to a million this cycle it's a stupid cycle it all gets out of control massive bubble could we skip a cycle that's Possible could

we fall 75% rally don't get the new high we've seen NASDAQ skip a cycle NASDAQ skipped a cycle from uh 200 1 where it fell so 2003 low it kind of skipped a cycle first before it really started going um so you know I'm open to that idea but we'd have to see a full blown bubble cycle my guess that's the next cycle I think that's the whole everything AI ridiculous everybody knows the game Bubble cycle I mean it's it's something that you phrase as the Exponential age and the the growth that goes along with

it but something that comes up in my mind is that crypto is very retail driven and once you you get like one and a half to 2% in your savings account and all of a sudden Divi becomes attractive and it is like 10% or 15% yield you could get the higher this cycle goes the more vertical it becomes and the more liquidity being added into crypto the more Fragile the banking system will be so there might be in my Case or in my thought process a thesis that if this cycle for instance goes higher and

longer than we all expect it might tumble over the entire Financial system that we used to have because of the fractionality that we have in the banking system just don't think that much Capital can leave they don't allow it that's the thing yeah that's right and think of the size of money market funds think of the size of that Boomer industrial savings Complex think of the size of the financial system right we're just seeing such a fraction mhm that I'm not sure it's going to be deposits I mean we've seen similar which was 1999 it

didn't threaten the banking system you know that nobody wanted money in their bank they just wanted to buy tech stocks MH because tech stocks were just vertical in the fastest acceleration of any stock market cycle in in all history at the time uh and Then there was the the blow up um so I hear what you're saying I think it more happens over time you know this migration keeps happening and that three trillion to 100 trillion is also the 500 million active wallets now to a billion active wallets so the four billion active wallets to

all the agents and AI agents using wallet you know I think it just happens over time and I think everybody's okay with that but you know if you were right and Everybody jumped ship both ships probably s i yes and that's something that we shouldn't be wanting at all um but I think to me it's just like because of the amount of opportunities that we have and you phrased it in in the coming six years are going to be super important for yourself I think the amount of opportunities are there but the volatility will go

through the roof the emotional decision making and biases are Going through the roof as well um there are a lot of of risks implied so it might swing away that it's just a too large for the financial system to handle but the question that I wanted to ask on this was like why are the coming years so important in your view because of what I term the economic Singularity yeah so how economies work once you understand this you understand why we're in the mess we are what's Going on everything is GDP growth Trend rate is

driven by demographics growth so I population growth productivity growth plus debt growth so if we think about Europe where you are we have aging populations we tried to import labor but in every country in Europe they're like whoa this is too much because we've got this old population and the society pushes back against too much immigration In one go so we're kind of stuck at this thing right and as you get older you become less productive so these rapidly aging populations just look at GDP and look at the trend rate of GDP and look at

the age of the population Japan the slowest Italy you know country by country by country it's that and the US is better because they got a younger population okay what I then found is the labor Force participation rate the number of people in the workforce as a percentage of the total population that keeps falling over time because people are retiring but when you invert debt to GDP it's the same chart so debt growth has just been a function of demographics trying to support an economy of Aging people and that's every country in the world same

thing okay so we're in that trap right Now and we've got all this debt that we buil up that we're just rolling and we're increasing the debt just to pay the interest that's the game it's not from government borrowings in excess they're not doing huge infrastructure spend it's just servicing debts that keeps raising the debts so that's creating this liquidity in debasement of currency it's the servicing of the debt because they don't want it to go bus you can't let the Collateral go bus because the system's too levered everything goes to you know it's a

down 90% of everything and it's the end of the world so they're not going to let that happen so we're in this cycle until something changes so you hear Scott Besson the new treasury Secretary of the United States saying we've got one chance and that's to try and grow our way out okay fine because GDP growth is the economic activity that pays the interest Don't forget the private sector's 120% of debt and GD debt to GDP as well so it's kind of totally screwed up but the question is is can you sustain it with an

old population it seems provably not can you shift it a bit maybe but in 10 years time something like that five or six years time we've got a new thing to compete with which is the rise of AI and AI is Basically human knowledge but an infinite scale we can create endless we're already seeing how fast you know these very early crappy agents on Twitter are but they're going in their thousands like mecoin peripher so we are going to create unbelievable amounts of AI which is human knowledge and the applications that make it easy for

us to use so then we don't need knowledge workers doctors lawyers Radiologists Whatever it may be and then the robots Amazon now employs more robots than humans and that's only going to keep accelerating so that means we're going to get infinite humans or replacement humans MH which means if you think of the formula if population growth goes infinite what the happens to GDP goes through the roof but who does it who does it ACR to the agents the AI companies who but it's not the Individual then you've got productivity so a lot of people argue

that Europe is wasting money by all of its green energy stuff I don't think it is I think it's a calculated decision to increase productivity in Europe is one of the simple ways of doing it without changing the population side is lower the cost of electricity over time and so if you do that you get more productivity you can have growth and growth will stimulate the economy This was the playbook in the 1950s in the 1950s we had the massive debt from World War II Financial repression which is a debasement of currency gradually over time

massive infrastructure spend eventually grow your way out technological Revolution 60s late 60s 7s happen Etc and a population boom which we don't have well we do have it's going to be robots so after that when AI is Everywhere and we have a age of abundance what is money what does money buy us what are jobs for us what does it mean to have a business people made all their money in SAS businesses but a SAS business is just a kind of front-end software that sits on the internet and if you just give it to a

powerful Ai and say build me this within a year from now from today we'll be in a system that can copy anything Build any website if you say Hey you know Michael's built a really cool decks and it's really different I just give it to my Ai and say hey copy Michael's decks but do it in Hindi cuz I think the Market's bigger and they'll say no don't do Hindi do Indonesian cuz it's an underserved Market off we go right so you have no motor around any business anymore unless it's a physical thing or a

hardware manufacturer Hardware manufacturers look at Tesla they're Using robots so it's a very complicated world what are markets when you've got AGI AGI is coming whether it's in the next two years five years it's here so if intelligence if Mo's law dictates that computation power doubles every two years what we're seeing is intelligence at AI level is doubling every year so by next year we we're at 120 IQ now next year it's 240 then 480 okay this is La La Land what are financial markets this is going to do better than us there's no Point

us trying to trade so okay this is a big issue but I kind of think this is all going to end in a massive bubble because we only have one solution here is to make as much money as you can in the next five or six years now I'm not saying 2030 is a you know the absolute date could be 2032 whatever but we have a very limited period of time where we've been given the gift of an opportunity invest in our Demise by the Technology or invest in the new infrastructure areas of crypto and

I think as humans are replaced out of the workforce they'll become more speculative in nature and more Community Driven which seen this testing with mean coins we've seen it testing with nfts we've seen it there's a whole bunch of ways we are basically speed testing a future for Humanity which is based around Community maybe speculation I mean we've seen the rise Of predicted markets we've seen the rise of sports betting these things have come huge but the more free time humans have and less ability to control their income the more likely they're going to do

that even even if Universal basic Equity arrives so that's why it is a very important and very real thing is we don't have any time um that's an interesting answer um the thing is is that there's a current question going around that there will be No jobs anymore there's no labor market anymore um especially since robots are going to take over a lot AI is taking over a lot now too but that's something that we thought I think like 20 years ago with internet 60 years ago 100 years ago um and every cycle new jobs

are being created and new continuation happens on all those aspects why is it different this time it isn't this is by far the most powerful technology the world has ever seen I Agree by a long way more so than I think the splitting of the atom I this is unbelievable what is happening happen so it's going to change the nature of work but we're humans we still need a purpose we still enjoy we're social creatures we are Apes we're social creatures we like to be around other people we like a commonality of mind we like

a commonality of purpose what is incredible is web3 Enables us to coales around these ideas and also to make money from them so let's say you're a Manchester United fan rough times my man sorry rough times currently yeah but if you are passionate about that Society you could participate in their token system and work for the growth of the club the economic growth of the club and you participate in it okay so now you've Switched a hobby to now earning money let's say you're a Taylor Swift fan same thing Taylor Swift's economy is so big

that made a billion dollars from touring CU she doesn't make any money from streaming sales but she moved the US economy the UK economy the Singapore economy and the US economy so much so that all the central banks talked about the Taylor Swift effect so what is our economy worth 100 billion 200 billion maybe more so if that was tokenized and You could participate imagine if you got her early when you first discovered her and you own the tokens isn't that not the same as owning Doge when it first launched right these are all we

are testing this so we will find that it could be around charal purpose it could be M and it will be multiple communities so we're already testing this in Ming coins you can be a member of One Community another Community you can speculate in a third Community you're active in another one we saw that in nfts all the same thing and the other thing humans will do is gravitate to be around other humans so life experiences nature stuff like that becomes more valuable to us because we're living so much of our life online so you

know we have an easy conversation because we met in person so therefore we kind of know each other we've hung around and that human bond is actually stronger than the bond of Zoom Calls MH and so I think humans will gravitate towards that so basically what I'm saying is humans are adaptive so then when you ask a friend who's got young kids that are let's say 8 9 years old 10 years old because they're going to come into a world which is entirely different where a degree University means nothing and you ask the kids what

do they want to be and they want to be influencers and we roll our eyes and go This is ridiculous yet in this future Society if you can create a community around you you can create value and so maybe they're self- adapting because they're seeing it online already it's the 25y old who's pretty 20-year-old coming out of University okay cuz they really don't know and the the force of this is going to hit them when they're trying to get Into jobs so they're going to either have to adapt like the young kids are or they're

going to have to invest everything they can into this the 30-some year olds they kind of established themselves they're doing three jobs they're doing what they can they'll invest in in this space they've been big investors in this space so it's going to be fascinating but Society will adapt but it will also create enormous societal pressures that I think the next Election the biggest issue is going to be AI well I mean you you touched upon a super important topic which is I think everything that we do has value people might even like could be

confused in six months whether we are having an actual conversation between Raul and me or whether it's an AI agent but watching us might be having some value that you can earn indeed which is also by we've seen some tests with walk to earn watch to Earn all those Concepts that are community and social F driven and if you on top of that lie the indeed the 20 year olds that are like should I go to class or should I just learn like a specific skill and just do it online and make way more money

with it independent of which segment they take I think there lies a lot of like future perspectives where we're going to go to and probably also a lot of new jobs I would say jobs that are being created where you're Actually getting paid for the time that you spend for something in actual value because that's also an issue currently that with the ongoing inflation it's just you're devaluing your time in your life so I think a lot of like 15 to 20 year olds and I am slightly older than 25 but I see them coming

out of school knowing all these things knowing social media and I'm like okay so in the future Brands and um communities are going to be so Big and I guess yours has been growing exponentially over the few last few years that that is going to be the future but there's another side of this we are still going to compete for attention which is the whole game mhm with AI who are very good at it y so if you people don't realize this and I've talked about this a lot people need to go and check out

character AI it's like for all of us it's like Tik Tok it's like what what so character AI Are like anime characters and other characters that are AI chats that the specific characters like the goodlooking at school that character whatever it's called has 450 million conversations already and there's thousands of these things many of them have over 250 million conversations already and this is kids under the age of 16 that are becoming friends with AI now we're going to say that's a up world but everything's a up world the telephones a up world the car

was a everything right the radio the TV everything mhm this is where it's going it's like Tik Tok we are like this is madness there is the signal of the future and it's happening at scale and when none of us are seeing it we're all talking about how cool it is to have agents on on uh Twitter that aren't Really very effective agents meanwhile millions of kids are already having AI friends yeah and I think in crypto we've seen some tests with AI already I think I don't know the name anymore but there was some

sort of Twitter account that actually created a trading bot that did make some money and then we have goat as far as I know teral truths in fact interviewing Andy uh this afternoon about Ai and another guy called Ryan who works with him who built another one Which is a charitable was base one called Forest uhhuh just again this is experimentation early phase which is what h do if given money and how can AI spread memes faster than humans which goes back to the idea is we're going to be competing for attention with AI so

it's not straightforward therefore the more straightforward thing is become a tour guide of the jungles of South America you will not be replaced well well so now we know what You're going to do in like six years from now well that's why I've got a house in Little Cayman it's an island of 150 people and it's the last place the robot thoughts are coming for well yeah I've actually been having discussions with my girlfriend of like what are we going to do in a few years from now and maybe just go to a small island

and enjoy life but when we're talking about that and when we talk about the coming few years with crypto a lot of those Questions are coming to me like how can I build something as in a portfolio I know that You' have been talking about is to not have a completely Diversified portfolio because everything is just correlated as this like if someone is completely relatively new or has experienced the previous cycle has PTSD how can you like get yourself going with the portfolio you have to accept the risk There's no other way of getting the

returns mhm now even if you were to mirror it and put crypto and NASDAQ they still go up and down in the same cycle because everything is correlated to the business cycle and the liquidity cycle so you kind of have to accept can I deal with the massive draw Downs to have the massive upside and if not you just ratchet down the risk curve which is then you go to tech stocks and if that doesn't work Then you get to like the S&P 500 the issue is it doesn't really outperform the basement so your salary

which doesn't go up as fast as de basement investing in the S&P doesn't get you ahead of the game so you only have two choices and it's the realization that you are going to have to take risk so then how do you take risk effectively firstly have a portfolio that is sensible which is I own The the largest tokens you know if you're can do one thing Bitcoin if you're going own two own Bitcoin and E if you're going to own three own Bitcoin Ethan salana maybe whatever right do that all also maintain an income

then when your portfolio goes down you're okay and then think about this idea that I have about taking lifestyle chips off because if it really matters to you that now your portfolio Is up and you're terrified of losing that money because it can enable this in your life then do that thing in your life if it doesn't really matter because you're living in a house or you're doing whatever you need or you're really young and it's like it doesn't matter to me yet it just go for it and then use your income when you can

to buy the sell-offs so it really does depend um there's no easy way around it it depends On your risk tolerance and your understanding of how rewards are generated I think I agree on that sense and I think that having a large portion in your blue chips which is often being said about Bitcoin and eth in Solana makes a lot of sense too a question I often get though and I probably you will get the this as well is what about e what's happening there so still be there or should it be uh changed for

let's say Solana so my view on eth is They have overbuilt for the current requirements for the requirement current demand for Block space or for their block space because this was the layer two scaling however if you are anybody in the financial industry if you're going to build anything at scale you will probably only do it on eth because you won't get fired because It's safe it's distributed it is interoperable with so many different areas mhm it's proven so if I think where the financial industry will go which is a quadrillion dollar industry or more

it's going to go there Bitcoin yes is a collateral for sure and as an investment vehicle but in terms of building on top of I think that narrative will catch hold and eth will pay catch up um and I Think the next cycle we'll see eth scale much like we all see Bitcoin scale you know will something flip each other in that thing maybe who who the hell knows you don't need to make that bet um so I don't worry about eth at all um uh but again our job is to make as much money

as we can in this cycle if you know we've been around you understand how to allocate assets so in which case I don't hold much eth the only eth I hold is the long-term nft collection That I've been building um and I've been mainly long salana mhm well I think we're a little the opposite of each other there I'm and heavily exposed to eat at this stage um I'm heavily exposed into I one of the things is I missed Solana so I'm kind of Fed Up by some emotions of missing the Run um which is

a bad thing to have when it comes to investing the second thing is that I think that at this stage defi is So undervalued that there's such a big Market still about to enter and where are they going to go to most likely most of them are going to eat then after that you probably have sui there's some defi starting to fire up there um I just don't see that much on Solana yet except for all the trading on Dex is taking place in meme coins I just believe that defi is going to be the

next big trigger when it comes to the market So I mean in your opinion what type of narratives are going to push this Market forward from here I think the narrative is going to be Bitcoin flows and then people going out the risk curve as people build look we still haven't built gaming at scale mhmd off the grid avalan built well back to that but I think you know sui sweet spot is that as well you know because it's super fast and super effective at certain things we haven't seen the Wholesale conversion of web to

mhm we haven't seen payment system integration outside of stable coins and I'm talking here about maybe dojon X or whatever it may be right we saw a bunch of these guys experiment like Reddit last cycle but didn't because of Regulation but the regulation changes so I think the the lack of regulatory headwind will create opportunity for a lot of the people who haven't been in to come in and that will be enough I don't think you're wrong About defi I do think defi is not easy to use for non- crypto natives still so it needs

to be embedded in a simpler way um what that means I don't know does regulation mean that the eth ETFs give yield okay that's big game yeah um so I don't disagree I think eth will do very well I have no I have no issues with it um yeah I have no issue I I've seen your point of view that as rates get lower more people get pushed def5 I think That's probably pretty true as well I that's that's pretty interesting I do worry about the reaking yields really why well I've been there's no such

thing as a 20% Yi without commenor at risk I it's just every time and so that nobody knows where the risk is everyone goes well it's smart contract it's all fine but what's the other side of the risk equation who's doing the borrowing Where's the leverage coming from where's it ending up with and who blows up it's just a matter of who blows up so that's why I don't like it um I understand if you're very crypto native you understand the risk you're taking you do it for periods of time when you think it's relatively

safe but it's not like oh I can write out the bare Market in reaking yields my guess is yeah half of this stuff all goes negative I've been going through it with The defi yield back in the day uh but the thing is that you've got a lot of Revenue generating protocols at this point uh for instance if you go to hyper liquid as a deck I think it's a good interface it's pretty easy to use the only concern you need to have is that you need to have a decentralized wallet to make actually execute

those orders and that's where the trick comes in metamask is not going to attract billions of users it's super hard to Handle but if you have an integrated wallet that is super easy on your telephone to use or on your mobile phone to use then on top of that having all the regulatory Frameworks that is putting back pushing back a lot of those projects to not la launch on a sex and launch on a DEX it's going to increase the defi Market where for instance hyper liquid coming back to that point you can also like

get a revenue by staking the actual token which is I think the last Time I checked the APR is like 20% or so but that is backed by revenue and a lot of the reaking protocals or early stage projects that are saying that they have a high return or high yield is actually just to attract stakers to grow the ecosystem but in my opinion you shouldn't be needing those stakers to grow the ecosystem the ecosystem should grow by itself by the product that is being Built but we kind of need reaking or is your teis

on reaking different Revenue goes up Revenue goes down mhm and once the reaking yield disappears we don't know who's caught the other side of some of this stuff what I do know however is that if you look at the The Leverage being created by micro strategies it's actually ending up in traditional hedge funds who are more practiced at Risk-taking um and so maybe it's more manageable we don't know somebody will probably get over their ski tipss and blow up but I think the nature of liquidity providers will change over time so I think we will

see the large lending pools of the banks and the asset management firms the Apollos these kind of people enter The Lending markets and that will make it far more robust it'll bring yields down obviously but I think It it has a chance to be far more robust because of Regulation the other mismatch we've still got in crypto is the VC Market versus the hedge fund market so the hedge fund Market is way too small versus the overall size of the market and the overall size of VC so traditional hedge funds are $4 trillion in assets

crypto hedge funds even with the recent rally maybe 10 billion Max so 10 billion is the entire professional capital in the market That's trading providing liquidity outside of the trading shops of which you there's like five or six of those unre unregulated Market making shops but the hedge funds are too small so what's happening is VC is getting tokens they're coming onto the market and they're falling 80% almost every new coin does why it's because the secondary Market's not liquid enough and there's too much liquidity in the primary Market mhm that actually creates a super

normal Profit for hedge funds because they can buy great tokens very cheaply after they come out but over time that will Arbitrage and we'll find an equilibrium that is more similar to IPO Market but right now it's dysfunctional like defi is dysfunctional because the The Leverage is not in super professional hands which is what we learned last Su around with three hours capital I I recently have jumped myself into the FY Capital game Which um I had the ethical idea that going from being a influencer k where there are a lot of Bad actors is

that once you step up and become a VC it's a good world where everybody just cheers for each other etc etc however there are a lot of unknowingly unexperienced VC guys out there just investing into protocols as valuations that I'm like I wouldn't be doing that I'm not going to name some but a lot of FC's were spending money into protocols at Billions of valuations just to gather management fees from their clients by keeping on investing into crypto and I think we're currently seeing that there indeed there are just a few hedge fund Traders I

mean the OTC markets are barely opening up and there are so massive discounts taking place at this point I mean some coins can can be bought for like 40 to 50% discount at this stage because there's just no one buying them um but On the other hand the FY capitals are just Overexposed and I think in terms of group of companies that are going to be hurt in the next cycle it's going to be the FY capitals can't be different and they got hurt last time around as well but they had the one trick up

their sleeve is most of them don't even care about Equity anymore MH they get decent returns from the token side but you know we've got this issue Of this mismatch so yeah it's very interesting you know I set up a exponential age Asset Management which is a fund of crypto hedge funds because I think there's more opportunity in the secondary markets and there are in VC markets because of the excess capital in VC meanings it's driving up valuations which drives down future potential returns while liquid markets there is still a disconnect um so yeah that

we'll see how That plays out but it's it's very interesting from my perspective actually if you're a retail investor at this point or actually in my case if we are an investor liquid assets are providing such a big opportunity in terms of risk and return that you could have because you can buy a certain asset that is yet to go up and you can liquidate at all costs and all times if you want while if you're a venture capital and you invest into something you don't know what which Valuation it goes live you don't know

whether the exchange screws you over you don't know whether it's going to be postponed because the timing is off so I think the liquid markets and also the secondary markets are a good Market where it goes through and one of the concerns that we have which is uh one of the final questions that I wanted to ask you is if someone is listening to to us today to you and says okay the next few years are going to be super important All those altcoins and crypto is going to go through the banana own they go

off vertically how are you going to handle those emotions and how are you considering taking profits like I know the feelings from the previous cycles and the amount of cheer that you you had but actually during those moments you should have been rational there is a trick and it was Tau to me when I was running a hedge fund the trick is every trade you do you Give an entry a stop loss if you use them or an idea stop loss where your idea is wrong because it's difficult to use stop loss in crypto unless

you're really short-term time Horizons but an idea stop loss is it's not scaling we're not seeing adoption you know they're not meeting their road map whatever it may be a fundamental stop loss basically yes but what you do is you write down your thesis you then write where you're going to take Profits so on the real Vision platform we have this in our trade ideas to force people to do this I was forced to do this when I was starting to run a hedge fund a guy said look here's the trick of managing your emotions

is take the emotions out your emotion is finding a great idea that's your emotion the rest it needs to play out and it will play out one way or the other you'll either win or you won't and if you do that one trick of Writing it down and holding yourself accountable you won't get that ridiculous fomo with it could go up another 10x it's like I was happy to take profits here so I should take profits here and yeah I know but uh probably there will be coins that are going to be going through Mass

cycle adoption or for instance a coin goes 200x and I did a 10 on 15x on it like there's always the temption to get back into It I know and I I still have it we all do my friend um it's really hard it's really hard and in the end you've got to realize that if you get back in at a higher price you're assuming more risk so had I had when I sold Bitcoin I'd bought it at 200 sold it to 2000 10x fantastic in my world at that time that was like heroic trade

and it went up another 10x I did not buy back in and I was comfortable because I've made 10x and I told myself it's okay um because if I had then realized oh I should get back in i' buy back in its 10,000 it was only like three weeks that it went from 10,000 to 20,000 and then backed out your risk increases so much further than an entry price at 200 mhm so you just have to realize you just have to become a little bit more stoic Yeah and say I'm happy to accept what I've

got and not what could have been because there's always somebody on X that's making more money than you there's always somebody who's talking about the trade that did 100x that you never got there's always somebody laughing saying look how much money are making a mean coins you don't know the truth you don't know how many zeros they've had you don't actually know their p&l you don't even know if they've Got $100 or aund million you don't know anything so you've just got to step back and say what what matters for me am I trying to

compete with random people that I actually don't know the truth about or am I trying to unfuck my future and if we try to unfuck your future it'll try and stop you taking too much risk at the wrong time maybe you need to become a Little Dutch um I'm already half Dutch it's enough for me yeah well you're taller Than me though so I mean just um final question Ro um I know you're a hardworking well content creator but also entrepreneur doing all sorts of stuff what makes you and happy what is your 's go

well partly it's it's money and security mhm but it's also this is the biggest macro opportunity of all time and so partly it's ego I want to nail this this is the big One I work my entire career for this one bet here it is and I'm going to take that bet in as many different ways as possible the other thing is I understood very early from Occupy Wall Street onwards that it really mattered to people and that they needed to unfuck their Futures and that it's creating societal discontent and if I can help as

many people as Possible and it aligns with my own personal goals well that's a win-win that's kind of like the idea of that Community idea where you can participate in a community well my community is people who want to unfuck their future and you know what it does it for me too it does it for the system wide as well because we need it because the system is broken and it helps people so if you got such a alignment of interest and it's the Greatest macro trailer of all time got to do it well thank

you very much all for uh spending uh some time with me on this uh on this podcast um I've been following you for years and watching videos so I would love to see them progress over the years and see where we go to through this exponential age um thank you for being here it was a wonderful conversation and I hope to see you uh in the next year again on this channel Discussing everything that we uh that we do any final words that you would like to say I've actually got a document that's that's free

if you join real Vision which is free realvision docomo there is a whole document that's there for you around how to unfuck your future and also the six years idea and I think people find it very useful so if you're watching this and you care about what you're trying to do it's free to join real Vision it's been A super power it's changed many people's lives so real vision.com jooin I'll make sure that the link is in the description beneath so if people want to go to real Vision then they can easily click on the

link in the description so once again thank you very much Ro thank you my friend I'll see you soon hey thanks for sticking around to the end uh look if you enjoyed it hit the Subscribe button and check out the video here on the right hand side I'm Sure you'll enjoy that one as well and if you're ready for more go to real.com jooin I'll see you there