I had on the other day that's literally all we talked about is the people that are required to sell now people that have new jobs growing families yeah loss of life the good news is hey guys welcome to another episode of break it down with Braden today I got Tina Tambor on me today Tina thanks for joining oh my pleasure thanks for having me of course uh Tina is with the Crumpler report and uh kind of the statistician Economist real estate expert in the valley around town if you would oh my yes a little bit of everything there yeah I think uh every Title Company lending company and a real estate company in town probably has heard the name Tina Tambor and if they haven't they've been living under a rock over in the last five ten years and uh Kudos on you for kind of creating the name around town and kind of being that uh source of information well thank you I am absolutely grateful for all the support we've gotten over the last decade for sure from the real estate Community from title companies lenders real estate agents especially in the MLS I we were just very grateful that that we were able to be here during times of uncertainty normally we're just on under the radar you know it's not until Things become a little uncertain a little volatile that let me start bringing the analysts out you know it definitely helps right now that does absolutely uh give everybody a little bit background on the Comfort report and kind of how it started and how it got to its where it is today oh gosh well the comforter report was started by Michael Orr he's a mathematician from Oxford he came out here from California Silicon Valley and um he started investing in homes and realized that he didn't have any good tools so he started pretty much downloading the MLS without permission and uh it kind of evolved into something he started giving to his friends then selling and then he got a cease and desist from the MLS going here you're really allowed to do that but right around the time that that happened was when the bubble and then the crash was occurring so right around 2007 2008 the MLS said hey you know uh we don't really want you selling it like that but if you could just provide it for our members you know we'll be happy to accommodate that yeah so that's how he kind of got started and went through of course all of those years 2008 through 2011. um I came on right around 2011 with him and the MLS decided they were going to go with a different a different product so we went independent and that's where 2011. in 2011 actually 2012 to be exactly Mike started off with ASU he started a little side business there if you will and but he's always been a part of the Crawford report and and then I just took a took on the presentations for him but he's still very very active he works out of England now and he writes a lot of our commentary most of our commentary on the website and he maintains a lot of the data oh like the daily observations and stuff is that the only observations are often Mike somehow some people think that's me and I'm like I don't use some of the words he uses you know as an he's British we don't say boot for Trunks and stuff like that but um but no he still keeps up with it and is very very active and interested in the Phoenix Market yeah it's your day-to-day then is mostly all the classes all the CES and all that different stuff um you know I don't really do see not CE but all the different classes Yeah so basically the one and a half hour updates um you know five times a week pretty much eight times a week sometimes um but I would say that the demand is very high at this stage because everything is Shifting and changing pretty much on a weekly basis and uh it's it's just a point of comfort for a lot of agents to be able to give their clients good advice up-to-date advice or even not even advice just information on what's Happening so they can make a better decision or a confident decision in their purchase or sale yep yeah I get uh people on here all the time and they're always kind of regurgitating quite honestly the stuff that you're saying and then we get people all the time that are commenting and the naysayers or the of course people that are super negative on the market or um always just looking for the negative news and things if you would um and so it's I'm to have you on to kind of give a little bit more of um statistics behind it and kind of facts behind it because that's all you're looking at you're looking at the numbers all day so it's not like you're giving your you are giving your opinion but your opinion based off of the numbers that you're looking at and the data yeah yeah and of course during these times where we have leading indicators and trailing indicators and when your leading indicators are showing a positive say positivity for Price or for sellers but all of your trailing indicators which will be sales or quarterly reports and things like that start reflecting what you've just been through which was quite negative when those two don't match up you get a lot of skepticism in the marketplace and so as as an industry we like to look towards the optimistic side of things but then our clients might be coming in and going what about this you know I saw this in them I know right yeah exactly and then you're like well we already lived through that I'm like I'm looking this way I'm not going to look that way but you know and sometimes small improvements in the marketplace can be seen in different ways like some people won't see that as a positive it's not positive enough for them to change their view that you know we're going to be like this forever yeah I think it was two Fridays ago I was sitting through one of your um your classes not even any classes but just uh you're giving a speech during the West USA awards ceremony yeah you talked about how there's uh negative 49 or 49 listings going on or we're losing 49 listings every day on the market right now and that's kind of the biggest Factor right now is the inventory issue and there's just not enough houses coming on the market absolutely talk a little bit about that yeah I think that um some people are confused when they look at the annual numbers showing that we are up 135 percent over last year for supply and then saying how can you be telling me then that I'm losing this opportunity right now and that's because they don't realize we were up over 300 percent in Supply and it is dropping extremely quickly and a lot of that surge of Supply was from flip investors I buyers specifically Open Door also you had your new homes coming in because they weren't selling so they decided to put them on the MLS so we had this massive surge last year of Supply that peaked in October but since that we have come down now 39 percent from the peak and we're dropping very very quickly which means that that was an opportunity for buyers to have a lot of choice and now that choice is diminishing every single day and they might find themselves pretty soon without as much as they have now you know if you have some you know criteria that the home at least be clean you know be working properly you might be seeing those types of homes going very quickly and you might find yourself looking at a home that's not so perfect yeah you talked about eye buyers talk a little bit about kind of what the eye buyers are doing right now eye buyers this is not a market for short-term holds right now and so the eye buyers and pretty much any short-term hold investor is is going to be very very conservative because we're still at the beginning stages of another seller Market but it's a very mild one and they're still kind of nursing their wounds from last year so I'd say the eye buyers right now in August they were about 12 percent of all of our MLS Supply now they're less than three percent they're only acquiring maybe 20 to 30 properties a month if you're lucky and they're selling over two to three hundred so they're just diminishing their own Supply and they're not really taking on anything new so that is opening up an opportunity for long-term hold buyers not having to compete with that kind of of investor claiming cash and you know wooing those sellers away from you and you're like I don't we don't need to do repairs they don't require repairs you know things like that so I like I said this is the market for buyers that do need concessions and that's you know seller paid closing costs sellers are more than happy right now to pay closing costs they expect it in many situations now so that's not a hard that's not a hard negotiation um they are not as hard-lined on their list price as they were a year ago they are um repairs they'll do repairs they're more open to say replacing air conditioners things like that that are 30 years old um and and that is while you might see the mortgage rate as a downer you might see the um you know sometimes the condition may not be what you expect but the opportunity is definitely there because if you were to see that home go away and not nothing else come on then you might start to feel some regret and over the last week we had two weeks now we're starting to see buyers coming back even with the rates where they are in the mid sixes the buyers are just watching that inventory go down and they're like well I guess the rate is what it is and I better get a house now yep is there a sweet spot for rate that you're seeing like if it gets to a certain point like buyers are coming in or is it uh well yeah the mid sixes the mid sixes well you know the rate buy Downs are still a massive part of our demand and the massive part of why we are in a seller's market for that matter so without those and the median right now is about nine thousand dollars in cost to the seller so without those we probably wouldn't have the demand but with them it keeps the fluctuations the you know people popping in and out of the market based on Market um mortgage rate fluctuations it keeps that to a minimum because you know a 2-1 buy down they're not seeing say six and a half percent they're seeing four and a half percent a fluctuation up or down from four half percent still feels better yep yeah I was talking to client yesterday she got her client concessions got them a permanent buy down on the raid and as well as the two one buy down and got them into like the low fours and so wow that's pretty amazing still you know that's a pretty good opportunity absolutely amazing but that's going to last for as long as we have people who have Equity so in terms of equity uh the people with uh at least two years of ownership are going to do okay but once we start getting through all the people who have owned for longer than two years if if you have only half short-term hold people then they're not as able or willing to do that but for as long as we have sellers that have plenty of equity which we do right now and have the ability to tax regains and well I don't know about the tax part but as long as they're looking at something like okay I can handle this return on my home many of them especially if you've owned it for eight six years or seven years you're looking at 86 percent appreciation on your home possibly yep so you know a few thousand dollars here there isn't going to kill your bottom line right for what you need to take it to the next home and then of course as the seller who's going to then buy again you're thinking well hopefully I'll get that yeah on my bike right so it all turns into a wash but overall um the industry I think where the confusion comes with Skeptics coming in watching our prices go up and not understanding why are the prices going up that doesn't when we're seeing sales as low as you know 2008 in some cases the thing is that there's a difference between what a buyer and a seller experiences in the marketplace today and what an industry professional experience is today so as we all know the industry has grown over the years to accommodate way more transactions and so that's where we've been seeing the shrinking that's where a lot of the influencers online 0.
2 and and even Goldman Sachs pointing to that yep but without knowing what the supply was back then yeah it's not really comparable I mean the amount of Supply we have today versus 2008 is at the height what was our supply at the height at the end of 2007 before the 2008 crash we had 57 000 listings in the MLS and we're at like 12 now yeah we're at 12 000. yeah yes so you take you know slightly more under contract today than in 2008 of course um so a little bit more under contract but still below normal but but way below normal on what we should have and 57 000 was way above normal um ridiculously high and we should be in a normal Market which we haven't had for a long time but we would expect like 20 to 24 000 listed and we're at 12. so we're we're about 42 below normal for Supply we're below normal for demand but only 18 below normal for demand and demand is actually Rising now yeah believe it or not what about uh new build permits new bill permits dropped like 7 73 percent from March of last year to December and over the last couple of months they're popping up a little bit but they're as low just to give you an idea like the lowest we saw permits was right after the 2008 crash so starting from 2009 all the way to like 2013 2014 very low permitting in fact that's what they were blaming for the shortage that we have today because we started growing in population and we just ate up all of that excess well we're now at a permitting level that is as low as 2014.
and I mean it plummeted so we're not really seeing any relief in our supply from the new construction we're not seeing any relief in Supply from you know say Open Door buying a bunch of homes and throwing them back on the market for us that's not happening and so all that's left is what we call a churn which is sellers and buyers moving within within the metropolitan area most of them are staying put so that leaves us with the people who absolutely have to sell yep you know so I had on the other day that's literally all we talked about is the people that are required to sell now people that have new jobs growing families a lot of loss of life the good news is that they will sell their home you know um the tough part for them is that they'd have to give up their you know sub three percent mortgage rate you know but in many cases they've earned enough down payment from the appreciation of their home that they may be able to just get their loan down far enough to wear their payment at least is uh is not as affected yeah yeah it seems like a lot of people too will just rent out that one too if they've got some Equity they could pull out of that one to go purchase another one and use the rent to offset the new mortgage or whatever yeah that does help us get through the five stages of grief so um what's some of your predictions oh gosh predictions um it's very difficult to do a prediction outside of what your leading indicators can see right now so all of our leading indicators give us about a two to three month advance notice of any shift in price and I can tell you that we're not seeing any shifts in price we're expecting to see that price continue to rise for the you know we're in what at the end of April now so May June and into July we're most likely going to see prices continue up and that means when you start looking at year over year our prices started dropping after really after May but significantly after June last year so once we get to the July versus July annual appreciation rate it could very well be positive at this range so but this is one thing I can predict that's out there right now is the case Schiller index was released recently and case Schiller is just like right now what whoa we're we're negative year over year in Phoenix like they're just figuring this out right because they are a three-month moving average and they're released two months late so the case Shiller was released for February which is February January December and those three months December was declining January was coming into balance and stabilizing in February was appreciating and so the k-shiller is now just telling us what we've already been through so we can now predict what the case Shiller is going to be so come I would say the case Shiller is going to start showing a stabilization in their next measure and then an increase in their next measure which will be for um April right which will be we're already going to be far enough ahead of them so they won't start reporting what we are seeing right now until November so so we can pretty much say the case Shiller is going to be hitting bottom right now right now and then you're going to start seeing an improvement makes it easy for those of us who have already lived through March and April yep um let me actually open up your website real quick I want to pull that up so um for somebody on here as an agent looking for Content kind of what they should be looking at what do you kind of recommend them kind of looking at on a daily basis okay well if you don't have a subscription you can always scroll down to the three dials right there that is updated every single day so just to read this from a color standpoint green is good for a seller red is bad for a seller it's always about appreciation anything good for a seller is good for appreciation so if it's in the green it means we're in an appreciating Market on the supply and the demand indexes 100 would be normal for this time of year so when we look at demand we'll round that up to 83. so we're 83 percent of normal for demand so we're 17 below normal Supply at 100 would be normal for this time of year we're at 57 which means we're 43 below normal for Supply so that means that because the supply number is lower than the demand number that's pushing the market towards sellers so even though demand is low some supplies even worse and that puts sellers in an advantage in this Marketplace and you're going to see prices go up cool so for people that don't subscribe to the Comfort report they could go to this actually and see this every day yeah absolutely didn't know that yeah you can um I always look at the daily uh I think it's the daily observations yep is there anything else that you recommend kind of people obviously there's tons of information on here but some people got kind of daily or anything like that I would say that many times people get in here and they're not just curious about what the Market's doing they actually have a client that they have to answer questions for or they're going into a listing presentation or some you know a buyer presentation so under the dashboards which is up a little bit down a little bit right there yeah there is a market conditions dashboard I'd say this is my favorite one right now and I usually use the price range filter square footage is for the you know the the kind that home that's a little outside of the norm got it if you will okay you know over ten thousand square feet or something what this basically tells your sellers or your buyers is how many contracts are being accepted every week in their price point and their area with the median days on Market is and then at the third one down is where the list price at at contract is got it so wear that sweet spot where the buyers are writing their contracts now you're going to have listings that are above normal and listings below normal these are just averages but it's showing that it's rising yep so that tells your buyer if you're if you're seeing the list price that contract rise it's not a declining market right now yeah and it also lets them know how many buyers they're competing with on a weekly basis for their price point and their area and same thing for sellers it kind of sets an expectation and if the sellers are seeing this list price at Contract moving down which it might be in some areas that tells them maybe don't push the price too much don't push the market you know um the second thing that you could pair this with is also in dashboards and it's the listing presentation dashboard so between these two you can answer pretty much any question a seller has this was this just tells you what Supply is doing okay so notice that this one defaults to single family home so it's a little lower than the supply account I gave you we only have just under 8 900 Valley Wide single family homes for sale so and it also tells you how many are sold and then the last one is a six month moving average on the price that lets you know last year you would have been paying over list price but this year you sell yeah that's a negotiating Gap okay so let's um see that okay we're probably going to be getting an offer that's not going to be your list price in this Marketplace so between asking about how many competitors do I have that's the supply for the seller how many contracts are being written every week that's on the other one plus the days on Market plus the list price that contract you're going to answer just about all your questions with these two sheets I love it yeah huge resource yeah this one's updated every day okay the other one's updated every week okay love it yeah um obviously this is probably the number one resource for actual stats in the industry I believe at this point and so oh it's good to know I feel very proud of it yeah you should I don't know that there's an actual ranking but I guess if we could we'll make it up I'm gonna go with it yeah number one even if I'm the only one in the list uh one thing another another thing I want to talk about was short-term rentals oh yeah yeah okay talk a little bit about those well short impact of the market here well short-term rentals are kind of what uh for us we don't have a good resource for short-term rental data the reason for that is that there's because there's no regulation not to say there won't be regulation but there's not a data source that we can pull from right now that says these personal numbers are short-term rentals for this amount of time for this much of the property you know for these times a year or whatever and so that makes it very difficult because that Supply can fluctuate up and down incredibly fast and so we usually yeah we refer to air DNA which is also not a perfect resource because they basically they scrape the websites and the websites will not give address information or any kind of parcel information and certainly not address until you go three or four layers deep into the reservation process so while that is less than perfect we still use what we can so air DNA has again they're also National so that helps us compare our neighborhoods to other neighborhoods so what we can say is that the occupancy rates per air DNA's research in Scottsdale Paradise Valley and Phoenix are all lower in the 60 percentile compared to some of the Cities we like to compare ourselves to like La Denver and San Diego they're all in the 70 percentiles and so what that tells us is that there are there are some short-term rental operators out there that had a disappointing season and they may or may not keep that place and they may or may not be able to sustain themselves on that investment if it's not occupied more so as a result we have seen some circumstantial evidence okay since I can't directly correlate I can take circumstantial evidence and say we have seen a spike in Scottsdale in long-term 12-month leases available got it for at least switching them over yeah very very sharp in fact and a lot of them in zero to one bedroom so the studio one bedrooms up for lease and also five plus bedrooms so again the spike and five plus bedroom rentals is in Scottsdale and Gilbert primarily and so we can take that and go we can also take the median rental amount the median uh lease that's successful and watch that going up and also notice that we have quite a few furnished going on so when you have a furnished rental where like the food Paul is included you know it's like all of that fun stuff that they have in there you can see those getting rented long term and you actually see your lease price moving up because you get the four Queen bunk beds yeah exactly yeah exactly so I mean a lot of that um circumstantial evidence kind of tells us that if they cannot put a short-term tenant in they turn it into long term if they cannot get a satisfactory long-term tenant it could potentially give us some opportunities for properties for sale and the big question is how much it will it be enough frankly or will be another little blip in the radar where buyers get a little you know opportunity to pick up a home that's in really good shape or you know mild use no big parties ever done in these house or something like that probably some pretty cool amenities in the backyard possibly yes some cool murals have been pointing at any other but the thing is that uh there may be a little bit of that boost towards the end of our peak season for tourism and we'll just have to see if that pans out and frankly uh one of the slides I saw through one of your presentations uh kind of talked about some of the hot markets for short-term rentals and I was surprised that some of them weren't kind of the Scottsdale Paradise valleys what are some of the oh well um well we have hot markets for luxury it might have been part of it too so in terms of hot markets for I don't do a lot of like I said I don't hang on to the short-term rental a whole lot I let air DNA do that that's their that's their thing but as far as luxury goes though which is again Associated a bit with short-term rentals because so many of them are business models now right but if you look at the supply of homes over a million dollars in the Northeast Valley is not enough to satisfy a lot of the people coming in with these big budgets these high-end buyers they're not going to get what they're looking for in the Northeast Valley if they're in the low one Millions for instance now I still consider a million dollars a lot of money right you know but you get into the Northeast Valley they're like uh that gets you attract home now congratulations you know right maybe a nice condo with a shared wall whatever so if that's not what you're looking for then you're going to have some spillover and so spillover is happening in the northern Peoria area 85383 just west of where the Taiwan semiconductor plants going in and that area has definitely seen an a frenzied yep a lot of very good ratios going on between what's active and what's under contract in Northern Peoria we're also seeing it in northeast Mesa yeah and we're seeing a lot of it as well in Chandler and Gilbert so those are some areas where we're seeing this spillover of people with high-end budgets and they're not getting the product that they want in the Northeast Valley so they're coming into other parts of the valley and you know awatuki is another place so they look for things like um Hillside Lots City Light views Big Lots big houses possibly or just highly renovated or highly updated homes yeah I got a friend texting me from Seattle that wants to move out here and he's like well I was looking in Scott's open now I'm thinking Gilbert because I want a pickleball court in the backyard and I need a pool and I'm like yep that's what it's got to do yeah if everyone if you want land you know if you want a big lot you're most likely going to be looking out in Gilbert or Queen Creek or Peoria and Chandler it seems like there's a big migration to Queen Creek well that is where you're going to have a more choice there's a lot more new home development going on out there it's more of a balanced Market Queen Creek just moved out of a buyer's market into balance doesn't really affect the luxury Market they're not affected by interest rates and things like that but as far as choice and the newness of the the product you're you're going to be a little happier with Gilbert because in Scottsdale their big building boom was in the 90s for Scottsdale gotcha 80s and 90s yeah yeah gray Hawks in the DC ranchers and all those north of Pima or whatever yes absolutely yeah I think Carolyn just was coming about like 24 years ago yeah you know right around 1999. yeah yeah I was living on Cactus when the 101 was built so I remember the boom of all that stuff I remember cactus in the 90s when it was still a dirt road after Pima and then Pima freeway was Bridges to Nowhere for a long time so yeah we've come a long long way in the last 30 years it's it's pretty incredible frankly to be um before we leave Tina kind of give everyone a last little tidbit on Arizona's market and just kind of leave somebody with leave everybody with a little tidbit oh I think Arizona is you know and I'm not coming at this from a biased standpoint I have been here since 1993.
