hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it is approaching the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse docomo ahead and jump in um the first thing I want to mention is just provide an update on the bracket challenge uh there are about 787 people that joined um I am currently in 265th place out of 787 uh but
we do have one person in the lead our buckets picks two has 590 points and then we got into the raidar verse with 570 69% Bitcoin dominance 560 and they're tied with e dominance at 560 so I do enjoy the name um but we'll see who has who who's winning at the end of the whole tournament and they will of course get the subscription a oneyear subscription ITC premium all right let's go ahead and jump in here so with Bitcoin we discussed a lot about how there there should at least be some renewed strength following
March Opex but one of the things we've we we discussed many many times with Bitcoin is whenever it gets a drop below the bull market support band usually the result in the short term is sort of a rally back up to it right um and we've seen that happen many times right you know that the sort of that initial drop below the bull Mark SP band you consolidate for a little bit you get the rally back up to 20we estimate Andor the 21 we EMA you can also see like in in uh 2019 right you
had a drop you Consolidated and then a rally back up uh there's plenty of times where you get that that outcome uh because you know whenever there is a drop like that whenever there is perceived weakness in the market a lot of people will then Panic sell and and then the r the market will go back up for a while and then you figure fure out whether the cycle is going to actually continue or not but this is something that we've seen many many times and it it actually happens to line up too with the
um with the RSI which we talked about a few weeks ago maybe just like the last week or something how this is the the level that the RSI has has been finding support at and coincidentally this is the same level that Bitcoin was Finding support at in terms of Le RSI in in 2019 as well and also you can see there was some support there in in 2021 so throughout this entire cycle we've seen Bitcoin find support on the weekly RSI around this level and as long as it holds that level then I think you
can argue the market structure is intact especially if it's above 73k now this move here right this move here back up to the 21 week em this is ultimately where you know you likely set up the summertime um we've talked a lot about about that and and you know in in Prior years and in Prior Cycles where you know sort of what happens in in March through May kind of sets up the summertime um last cycle in 2021 we had a really strong q1 and then the summer was actually relatively weak right the summer was
relatively weak last year the summer was relatively weak and then the year before the summer was relatively weak what's kind of interesting is if you if you look at quarterly returns uh for Bitcoin right now bitcoin's down you know I mean this quarter it's up a lot today so it might not be quite negative 11% if we go look at at quarterly returns here thre Monon uh it's down about 6% so I mean it has rallied a good bit overnight here um so it's down about 6% now in 2017 Bitcoin rallied about 8 or 9%
from the quarterly open now the key thing that I remembered about 2017 was that the summer was actually pretty good um and it is kind of different than what we saw in the prehab year and what we saw in the the having year where the summer was relatively weak the question though right the question is how does that exactly manifest itself if in fact it is to happen one of the biggest differences we've seen this cycle with the 2017 cycle was that in February of 2017 we were risk on and we went to a new
high but in February of 2025 we were risk off and therefore the March low ended up being lower than the January low whereas in 2017 the March low was a higher low compared to the January low there's one other thing that we discussed as well was sort of following these patterns and that is you know basically the sort of the next time area of risk I suppose will just be the macro data that comes out in in a couple weeks there was the Tariff stuff on April 2nd but it does seem like Trump has you
know president Trump has has slowed down the rhetoric there um a little bit and and so I think the the window you know is going to be sometime out in in early to mid April okay for where does that data actually come in one of the things that we had talked previously about and I I just want to follow it for the sake of completeness not because I I necessarily think it's the most likely outcome but if you look at the QQQ we we have followed this for a while and there's been a lot of
deviations honestly from what happened back over here but the the main similarities that that exist right now between Bitcoin and the QQQ is that at least so far you know the QQQ topped about 54 weeks later after it launch launched and after the Bitcoin ETF launched so far the high has been exactly 54 weeks later now hopefully Bitcoin can take out that high the good news is that the drop that the QQQ got back then was a much bigger drop so if anything it implies that the market wasn't as crazy as it was back then
that drop was about a 47% drop right Bitcoin at this point has has only dropped about 30% right now 30% is still a fairly reasonable correction we had plenty of those even in 2017 even the drop that we got in early 2017 uh that tested the prior yearly high or the prior high from the year before was about a 35% drop so that is still a fairly normal drop what you'll notice about the QQQ is that in that year the summer was actually relatively bullish right the summer was relatively bullish there was an immediate drop
right you first had a wick below the bullmark sport band and then you had a weekly close below it right so you had a wick below it and then a weekly close below it if you look at Bitcoin you can kind of see the same thing right you had a wick below it and then a weekly close below it then following that there was sort of a bounce back up to the 21 we EMA um and then it came back down but when it came back down it it put in a higher low okay so
if there is weakness in April and or may then you would look for a higher low kind of like what this got now the downside for what happened with the QQQ is once Q4 arrived the markets crashed into a recession if that is the case I you know there's still a good chance that that would take some time to play out I think a lot of people think that like layoffs lead to you know or the the the layoffs lead to stocks going down but it's really the other way around like the stock market going
down leads to that stuff um and and you can kind of get into like a negative feedback loop so what I'm watching right now is how this plays out with with Bitcoin back at its 21 we EMA and approaching the 20we SME because the QQQ did the same thing now where it has deviated and at least provides some glimmer of hope is that when you look at at bitcoin's drop here the weekly close that it got was actually still above the wick from the week before whereas with the QQQ the weekly close completely took out
the week the the wick from the week before so from you know from where I'm sitting right it looks like the QQQ had a much more massive drop and then a multi-month attempt to repair it that ultimately failed and it wasn't obvious until about late Q3 going into the fourth quarter of the year with Bitcoin we haven't seen as big of a drop but the structure of the market hasn't necessarily deviated just yet if you look closely at the QQQ you'll see that it when it drops it basically just came back down to where it
had already gone on a weekly close right it just went right back there so for Bitcoin that would be you know back down to around 80k or so now there was a wick below that um and as I've said before as long as Bitcoin holds above 73k then the structure of the market uh does in fact remain intact so I I do just want to talk about that and and you know how how how to sort of think about this this as we go forward I do think there is a a really good chance that
there would be some type of a rally um and and and and it's possible we're already in it right it's possible that we're already in it um in fact I mean the Market's been going up for three weeks we talked about sort of like a counter Trend rally at the very least right this this is that rally at the very least right it's a counter TR rally at the very least hopefully it leads to new Highs but when you know when you think think about the structure of the market and and how this ultimately play
out I I know that sometimes that weakness can come back a little bit before um the market really takes off right into sort of a move that makes you really question whether whether the high is in or not and we actually saw something similar um last time that the FED slowed down quantitative tightening if you look at like the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve um right I mean you can see pretty clearly that uh when the FED slowed QT back in May of 2024 they announced it in May it didn't actually slow until June
but they announced it in May what what it initially happened is you know the market went up and then there was a little bit more weakness like a week or two later and then it got a stronger rally so that's only the reason I'm mentioning it is because sometimes on the first approach to the bullmark sport band there you know it can find weakness as it gets into that level um you can see that it did something right here similar right up into the bullar sport pan and then weakness for a week or two before
going higher um similar idea over here although it did go above it but it then found weakness on the other side of it and then if you look at like 2019 right you got a drop below the bullmark sport ban and then a rally back up into it and then it ultimately led into a a lower low and then you could argue that this is where the cycle was actually getting back on track and then the recession hit um so that's the way I'm I'm sort of thinking about this right now is that the bull
market support ban is going to be that critical level for Bitcoin to get through and and right now it it essentially ranges from about the current price right from around 88.5k 88.4k all the way up to 95k right so 95k essentially is where the 20we SME is right now and that is is going to be sort of your Main Line in the Sand because it also corresponds to the lows basically from from back over there right that is going to be a pretty big level so if it does get rejected here like if it sort
of comes into it and then comes back down and then goes back up again that would be sort of the big area to look at to see if it can if it can get back above it and that would of course take place you know sometime sometime this summer okay so in order for you know in order for the the the market to really get back on track there there has to be a lot of repair died and you know that hasn't happened yet it doesn't mean that it won't but it just hasn't happened yet
we need to see the market repair itself and get back above 9k and this is the the sort of the support level that it finally broke back over here between February Opex and March Opex we said there was likely going to be a drop between that window now March Opex is over you're seeing risk on come back into play a little bit and my guess is that the next sort of concern I mean maybe there's a little concerned around April 2nd but it seems like they're trying to walk some of that stuff back my guess
is the next thing will just be sort of the macro data that comes out in early to mid April as sort of whether this can get through the bullmark sport band or if it say gets a rejection comes back down and then tries again this summer which I could totally be on board with I mean I I could totally be on board with that idea um I do remember in 2017 you know there was weakness in the market for a little while and then once you got out further into the summer um things changed so
that's what I'm currently looking at as far as you know Bitcoin dominance goes I I think it will continue to slowly Trend higher I think Bitcoin you know can use liquidity from the altcoin market uh to to hopefully sustain itself for longer um you know the fact that all Bitcoin pairs are still way up here suggests there's liquidity that may eventually find itself back in in Bitcoin um so do remember that and and keep that in mind because I I I know you know sort of the discussions around QT and whatnot uh slowing have have
called for people to sort of you know make certain buold predictions about altcoins but um you know I still think that that most likely outcome for alts is to is to bleed against against The King and I didn't think it was going to take this long but it is you know doesn't mean it's not ultimately going to play out so those are my views uh Bitcoin should still outperform most of the rest of the market so it you know Bitcoin gives you exposure to the upside it still minimizes your downside because even if there is
a drop like even if there is a rejection off the bullmark sport Bend you can imagine that alts would get wrecked even harder so imagine a world where Bitcoin goes back up comes back down and then goes up again right that process that choppy process causes things like Bitcoin dominance to ultimately go higher right that's what that choppy process over here caus Bitcoin dominance to slly go higher so when a lot of people ask well is Bitcoin dominance going to go higher on a Bitcoin Rally or a Bitcoin dump my answer is always yes like
it's it's usually a combination of both that ultimately leads to that outcome so those are my views right now the major hurdle for Bitcoin that it needs to get past is the bullmark send in my opinion right in my opinion um I'm not unsympathetic to the idea of a rally Beyond it but I also know that a lot of times on the first approach to the bullmark sport band there can be a rejection followed by another later attempt right and we saw that last year you know a few attempts then finally it broke through um
we saw that in 2019 as well right it dropped below it rejection and then finally it broke through and of course we had a recession um but even here right you know sort of a dropped down it rallied back up almost to the 21 PMA and then it was on the second attempt that it broke through so if if you do see some weakness by Bitcoin after really getting into that bullmark sport band that is a fairly normal sort of behavior for for Bitcoin to sort of exhibit and then the expectation would be that it
would then come back down uh either put in a slightly lower low or a slightly higher low something like that and then try again last year it was a slightly lower low right you had a rally and then a slightly lower low and then it tried again um in 2019 it was a slightly lower low and then you tried again but in 2023 right I guess it was also technically a slightly lower low um but again there are times where it you know it'll it'll it would be a higher low and I mean the QQQ
is is example of that right a drop rally back up into the bullmark square pan a bounce back down or a drop back down sort of a counter turn rally back up so that's what I'm thinking if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up check out sell into the Crypt vers premium I into the crypto.com and I'll see you guys next time bye
