Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs PREVIEW - Gruden's Pick

okay we got a great AFC championship game this weekend in Arrowhead it's the 13-4 Buffalo Bills heading to Kansas City to play the 15-2 Chiefs this has become one of the best non-division rivalries in all of football head coach Andy Reid arguably the best head coach in the league he just won his 300th game last week and he's going up against Shawn mcdermit a great defensive coach who has the Buffalo Bills once again close to the Super Bowl McDermot coached with Andy Reid in Philadelphia these two men know each other extremely well and the strategies

of these two men will show up big time at crunch time the bills have won four out of five of the last regular season games against the Chiefs they've won three times at Arrowhead they have no fear getting off the bus playing in Kansas City the bills have lost the last three playoff games against the Kansas City Chiefs go back to 2021 Chiefs won 38- 24 in the AFC Championship game in 2022 Kansas City won 42-36 in a divisional round in 2023 Kansas City won again 2724 in the divisional round this is the fourth time

these two teams have met at crunch time in the playoffs just remember though last year when these two teams met in the playoffs Buffalo did not have Christian Benford at corner they didn't have Milano they didn't have Bernard at linebacker and both of their safeties are brand new as well so it's a completely different Buffalo Bill team the Chiefs amazing are looking to become the first team to three repeat since Vince Lombard's Green Bay Packers did it years ago and they're looking to be just the fourth team in NFL history to make it to the

Super Bowl three straight times what a job the Chiefs have done SU staining this dynasty the bills are a team I just can't help but not love the bills fight man they focus and they find a way to win they've had a lot of defections I said they lost both of their safeties they lost Stefan Diggs Gabe Davis they lost some players they've had some injuries Milano missed 12 games other players have been injured this season and the bills continue to find ways to win it's going to be a fist fight the Kansas City Chiefs

believe it or not are in their seventh straight AFC Championship game that's hard to believe only the New England Patriots who did it eight times in a row have done it longer we got to the AFC Championship game one time when I was coaching the Raiders then one time when I was coaching Tampa I can't even believe they've done it seven straight Seasons but the battery of momes and Reed and this emerging defense has allowed Kansas City to do great things the Chiefs have won eight straight playoff games and believe it or not these Kansas

City Chiefs they get accused of winning ugly all season do you know they've won 16 straight one score games that's the longest streak in NFL history they're very comfortable and very confident hanging around and finding a way to Boom knock you out at the fourth quarter at the buzzer Pat Mahomes has brought this team back seven times to win this year adversity doesn't bother him I can't wait for this the Reed and momes era since they've been together for seven years they're 11- two all time in the playoffs at home hell they're 16 and3 together

as a playoff combination the bills over the last five seasons in the playoffs the bills are 0 and four against the Chiefs and the Bengals but they're seven and0 against everybody else can they reverse that Trend this week both teams are welcoming back reinforcements remember they played in week 11 and buffalo was the only team in the league to beat Kansas City when the chiefs were at full strength remember when they lost to Denver almost every player on the roster took the game off but the Buffalo Bills welcome back Keon Coleman at wide receiver and

Spencer Brown at right tackle both of those men missed that week 11 matchup and the Kansas City Chiefs they're getting a corner Jaylen Watson number 35 back he played 40 snaps last week against the Texans and when you put Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffy on the edge you can't do much better Watson's a hell of a player they also get Charles om menu back a very versatile rusher he had a sack last week against the Texans he can Rush on the right side the left side or he can go inside and he is a disruptive

player and Maris Brown even though he didn't catch a pass last week he can fly and with Smith Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins they have a lot of Arsenal that they can utilize the Chiefs are nine and0 this year at home and I've been in Arrowhead a lot and I've been lucky to walk away there with a pretty good record but man is it a hard place to win they are loud it's going to be very very loud probably going to be cold as well the bills are five and four on the road this year keep

that in mind last couple points in that week 11 Victory Buffalo got him 30-21 and momes only threw for 196 yards in that game he did have two interceptions but those two picks one of them he was pushing forward he got hit and Kelsey was wide open in the middle of the field the other interception was late fourth and 13 I think that was a decision oriented pick but he only had the 196 yards because Buffalo they control hold this football game by going 9 for 15 on third down they had the ball a long

time and they really went after number 13 a backup Corner nazy Johnson Amari Cooper had two huge receptions and don't forget this fact when the Chiefs lost to Buffalo I counted them they missed I had 14 tackles that they missed in that game it's the worst tackling game the Chiefs have had the entire season I can't imagine that happening again both both of these teams have been amazing with the turnover ratio both of these teams they prevent losing and they find a way to win the Buffalo Bills are plus 24 that's amazing they've recovered 16

fumbles nobody's even close to that nobody has done 21 straight games winning the turnover battle like the bills have since the 1952 and 53 Rams it's an incredible accomplishment by coach McDermot his staff and these players and Andy Reid his Chiefs they've gone eight straight games without a turnover since Mahomes two interceptions against Buffalo in week 11 they've had eight straight games without an interception and Mahomes has thrown 262 passes consecutive without a pick so they are really taking care of the football I believe this game is going to come down to the place kickers

for Buffalo Tyler bass I thought he did a great job last week in the snow against the Ravens he hit hit a 51 Yer he hit a 21 y he made all three extra points but he has missed 10 kicks this year five Pats and five field goals keep an eye on bass at crunch time he did Hammer a 60 yarder at the buzzer to beat the Dolphins earlier this season he has great capability and Harrison bucker for the Chiefs he's a notorious killer man this guy can knock you out he kicked the six field

goals against the Miami Dolphins in 50 below weather he has no fear none zero bucker missed four games with a midseason injury he's 21 for 25 this year on field goals and 29 for 31 on Pats however Harrison bucker is 35 for 39 as a playoff kicker and he's six out of seven from 50 he hit a bomb in a Super Bowl last year this guy loves pressure the injuries Kansas City is is healthy I think they had every single player available on the practice field Wednesday and I spent a week up there watching the

Chiefs and it's a credit to them and their training staff and their coaches they practice hard they're on The Cutting Edge I think of getting players out on the grass and whatever they're doing I think teams from around the league are going to be looking into it and seeing what are they doing to keep all their men healthy but the Buffalo Bills have three guys you got to keep an eye on cornerback Christian Benford one of my favorites number 47 he had concussion protocol he's been limited on the practice field Wednesday and Thursday they need

him big time and Matt Milano he left that game against Baltimore had a little tightness in his hamstring he just got back after missing 12 games Milano is a guy you got to keep an eye on he's valuable and Taylor R number nine very good safety he has not practiced he hurt that back area against the Ravens if he doesn't play they're going to use a rookie in his place three critical members of the Buffalo Bills you better look into it there's a lot to unpack this is a huge game great coaches great quarterbacks great

effort it's going to be awesome let's get into it okay we have a great matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs offense offensive coordinator Matt naggie Andy Reid they all work together they do a great job against the Buffalo Bills defense coach babit has done an excellent job using new personnel and overcoming some injuries to keep the bills humming the Chiefs on offense are healthy but we must keep an eye on the left guard and the left tackle the left side of this Kansas City chief offensive line Caliendo is now the starter at left guard tuny

the All Pro outstanding left guard is now the left tackle and tuny is the fourth different left tackle to start for the Chiefs this year that's saying something keep an eye on the left side of this Kansas City Chiefs offensive line the Run game for the Chiefs it just hasn't popped it hasn't been what we expected it to be yet even since Isaiah Pacho has come back from his injury 54 carries 193 yards just 3.6 yards per carry and Kareem hunt since pacheco's return 45 carries 154 yards just a 3.4 yard average the Chiefs against

this nickel defense I think need to get that running game going get some favorable downed distances take the pressure off this left side of the line and control the clock and keep Josh Allen over there on the sideline let's get the running game going and let's focus on that if we're a Kansas City chief fan the Andy Reed Pat homes combination seven straight AFC Championship Games how good is that what it is and I play it against these guys it's Andy Reid's play calling it's Andy Reid's plays it's their staff they come up with great

plays and as good as the plays are and as good as they practice the play if nobody's open or the protection breaks down pat Mahomes creates his own offense with Incredible scrambles and decision making it's that combination and those second reaction plays that makes the Chiefs a very difficult offense to defend I don't care what the statistics say it's not an explosive offense this year shockingly we haven't seen Xavier worthy do what he did at the University of Texas even Kelce only had three touchdowns during a regular season he had the fewest amount of yards

he's had in his career but the Chiefs are efficient incredible ball security as I said in the last eight games zero turnovers that's almost unheard of and unbelievable Pat momes his numbers are down but the winds are up and what's important in Kansas city is winning and winning Super Bowls and Nobody Does it Better Than Pat Mahomes I think Mahomes has a big chip on his shoulder are you kidding me no Pro Bowl not to take away from Lamar or Josh Allen or Joe burrow certainly but Pat momes is using his fourth different left tackle

he missed Isaiah Pacho that brought Kareem hunt in right before the kickoff he's had a lot of injuries at wide receiver rice is out they just met DeAndre Hopkins a couple months ago Smith Schuster had a 100 yard game and then he disappeared with injuries he's used 18 different receivers that's incredible 18 different men have caught passes he's brought the Chiefs back to win seven times that shows you what an ice man he is mat momes has thrown under 200 yards this year five times he's only thrown for over 300 three times so I wouldn't

get caught up in all these statistics yards overs overs overs with Pat momes he's going to try to find a way to win the game and he might use the entire clock to do it that's what makes momes great he's had a lot of throwaways he's had a lot of batted balls he's been sacked 36 Times by far the most in his career it's a credit to him and his toughness for being here for the Chiefs Travis Kelce is an interesting man the playoffs are his playground the regular season numbers they're not off the charts

remember he only had eight catches in his first three games everybody was like where's Kelsey he ends up with a very solid year 97 catches but only had 823 yards and just three touchdowns those are both career lows but when he gets in the playoffs something happens playoffs I this guy had seven catches for 120 yards last week he looked like he was 25 not 35 he broke tackles he scored a touchdown and he was a force what I love about Kelsey is the way Andy Reid uses them when they get into their trips formation

they'll put him in here as the three- spot the next play he'll be in the two spot the next play he'll be in the one spot then they'll put him on the backside of trips by himself they put him in motion they have an incredible route tree and a guy has this incredible style of getting in and out of his cuts and he catches everything I love the way they use Kelsey do you know in the playoffs alone this man has 172 catches that's more than anybody in NFL history and he's closing in on Jerry

Rice for the most yards and most touchdowns Kelsey I would take the over on him in this game he is a freaking animal when the Playoff starts the receiving core other than Kelsey very quiet last week against the Texans hell Maris Brown didn't catch a ball DeAndre Hopkins didn't catch a ball Smith Shuster did not catch a ball they need more production from their receivers and I think they know it but they got to get that going for some reason the Chiefs used a lot of 13 Personnel in that first matchup against Buffalo they used

three different tight ends Kelce Noah gray and henders shot I think they tried to get after Buffalo force them to play a base defense I don't know if they're going to use that approach this time around now that Maris Brown is back and their receiving core is healthy but the Buffalo Bills defense I think they welcome this challenge this is a high effort very good tackling defense they primarily Play Zone coverage this season they played over 70% Zone more than just about every team in the league but last week against the Ravens coach babit he

heated him up a little bit so anything could go in this AFC Championship Game the bills use a lot of nickel defense five DBS they'll play a lot of dime defense six DBS and these defensive backs have been outstanding tacklers let's hope Christian Benford can play let's hope Tyler WAP can play those are two starters and they will miss them sorely if they can't but number seven their slot Corner teron Johnson I've said it every time he's one of my favorite nickel corners and number 39 cam Lewis a phenomenal dime linebacker he is really talented

these guys can fly to the ball and as I said earlier they're plus 24 not only have they recovered 16 fumbles boom they force a lot of fumbles with great effort and great tackling technique they played a base defense last week though against the Baltimore Ravens meaning they just used four def defensive backs and they use three linebackers well with Milano's injury if Andy Reid were to use some heavy Personnel that could give Buffalo some problems I thought Derk Henry got after him in the second half with some really hard ball runs from 21 and

22 Personnel it'll be interesting to see if the Chiefs try to use that formula let's take a look at some of the key matchups in this game I think it all starts and ends up front the chief's offens of line Jawan Taylor at right tackle did a good job last week against denil Hunter and Trey Smith is an excellent Pro Bowl Right Guard Humphrey number 52 the center is First Team all pro you won't find a better center it's this left side of the Chiefs cendo is a backup left guard and Joe Toney is a

guard out there playing tackle and that's about as hard as it gets and these two men are going to have their hands full I think against number 50 Greg rouso and number 91 Oliver a good inside rusher the Buffalo Bills have got to get after the left side of the Chiefs and don't forget Von Miller number 40 he has been around a long time and he relishes big game situations and he and Jawan Taylor are going to have a battle they also have epinesa number 57 one of the premere high effort players in the AFC

so they have an arsenal of rushers and if Andy Reid goes big if he uses big Personnel to try to run the ball at this nickel defense you're going to need Jones number 92 and Johnson number 98 to come in and play nose tackle and try to keep these linebackers free jeffon a former Raa is in there rushing inside he's number 71 but I call it the Green Team you see I even have shirts made up green team that's the money pass rushers you have to assume assume this game is going to come down to

the fourth quarter and we call out our Green Team pass rush I'm talking about rouso Oliver Jefferson Von Miller and epinesa those guys have got to close out Pat momes and Andy Reid with this green team Money pass rush you like this shirt let me know I'll send you one the linebackers for Kansas City we all know Milano number 58 is going to be a game time decision he's a hell of a player and they missed them when he was gone so look for Dorian Williams number 42 he's a good player he could come in

I think and play very very well if Milano can't the big guy I think for Kansas City is number 43 Bernard he did a really good job he had a sack in the first game against momes he played a jam front he covered the center and on the snap of the ball he dropped and he just spied on momes if Mahomes runs this way Bernard's got him he's going to get him if he scrambles this way there goes Bernard but Bernard has the foot speed and the instincts to be a really good spy linebacker I

love it how are they going to stop Kelsey and gray do not go to sleep on Gray we know Kelsey's numbers they're indisputable but gray has five touchdown passes and 40 catches and Andy Reid loves to use two tight ends at a time so teron Johnson number seven in the slot is going to get one of his great matchups of the season the bills we must keep an eye on number 47 he had that concussion protocol we're not sure if he's going to play he is a hell of a corner if he can't go I

expect Elum number five or Ingram to fill in over here rasul Douglas will get some matchups against Xavier worthy and the Chiefs have been using worthy none of the other receivers even got a ball last week but worthy had five catches for 45 yards but it's Kelsey it's Kelsey and I go back to Kelsey he had just two catches for eight yards the first time these two teams played that ain't happening they're going to Target them they're going to move them all over the place and the freaking Buffalo Bills got to be ready for number

87 keep an eye on the Reed Factor that's Andy Reid he's done it a long time at a high level with the great quarterback a lot of good screen passes to slow this Rush down excellent tight Red Zone cre creativity this guy will run some weird plays that you haven't seen all season long he's going to go to Kelsey in key situations and I think Andy Reid knows he has to get the running game going Pacho and Kareem hunt against this nickel defense and lastly I think this is really important the Chiefs got stuffed on

a critical third and one against Buffalo the last time these two team played remember Mahomes doesn't do the tush push he doesn't run the quarterback sneak it's Kareem hunt in short yardage if you're sitting at home on Third and one remember this Kareem Hunt is 16 for 19 as a short yardage Runner do not be shocked if Andy Reid doesn't take a shot on third down is short because he knows Buffalo stuffed them the last time a lot of great stuff to unpack let's see if Hopkins veteran receiver Smith Schuster veteran receiver can get involved

in this attack and keep an eye on those injured Buffalo Bills Defenders there's some really good players we got to find out about okay this Buffalo Bill offense led by offensive coordinator Joe Brady has done an excellent job this year and so has Steve spagnolo the defensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs this is going to be another great side of the ball to keep an eye on the bills this year have been balanced man they can run the ball with authority with three different backs and Josh Allen and they can throw the ball to

a lot of different receivers they're very unselfish I love what coach McDermot has done with the bills I mean they play their ass off on defense with high effort and offensively they do the same thing and there's a lot of unselfish people here that aren't complaining about not getting catches the ball security is the key ingredient in the bills 13 and Four Season they've only turned it over eight times that hasn't been done since the 2019 Saints and you got to to go back to like 1930 before you've seen a team turn the ball over

eight times in 16 or 17 Games The Run game right now for Buffalo is humming remember they had 210 yards rushing against the number three rank Denver Bronco defense in the first round and then last week against the number one rushing defense the Baltimore Ravens they had 147 yards rushing so guess what Kansas City the bills are going to run the ball and I thought the hug Houston Texans sustained some long drives last week and really kept Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid out of the game I would not be shocked if Buffalo comes after the

chiefs with a strong ground attack cook their go-to running back number four over a thousand yards he is running hot and Ty Johnson another running back comes in and can pick up blitzes he can catch it and he runs with authority and they have a young back Davis he comes in the game and he looks looks like a Season Pro and then you have Josh Allen keeping it out the back end I mean when you look at Buffalo's Run game they have the ability to run all kind of schemes with athletic pulling tackles like brown

he's back healthy at right tackle I mean they get angles on you up front and they hand the ball to cook and they read the defensive end if he closes Josh Allen ran for 50 yards against the Detroit Lions and if you Blitz off the edge they throw a built-in RPO to number 10 Shakir he's a hell of a runner after the catch with two lead blockers so it's a creative Run game three different backs the threat of Allen keeping the ball and athletic lineman man they are very good Josh Allen has been great his

statistics prove it but there's just been no bad plays if you had a statistic of percentage for bad plays I used to make a big deal about sacks fumbles and interceptions at the quarterback position those have got to be avoided Josh Allen's sack interception fumble percentage is just barely over 4% that's the best it's been since the merger between the AFL and the NFL he's been extraordinary making plays and he's been extraordinary taking care of the ball and eliminating bad plays it's unbelievable I do love the Bevy of receivers and back and tight ends that

this team uses they are a hard team to self Scout they're a very hard team to prepare for and this quick passing game it's hard to get to Josh Allen he's been sacked fewer times this year than any point in his career yeah the line is talented but that Ball's out man I mean it is out quicker than you can say out that Ball's out Josh Allen makes signature plays Just Like Pat Mahomes does in critical moments how did Buffalo beat Kansas City in week 11 remember the fourth and two play late in the game

with two and a half minutes left he starts scrambling around next thing you know it's a 27 yd touchdown and last week everybody says well he only threw for 126 yards he only had 19 yards rushing well he converted two third and ones those are hard to get done against Baltimore and he scored a touchdown running the ball in the tight Red Zone he makes signature plays in key situations goal line short yardage tight Red Zone end of game four minute calls two-minute offense this guy's phenomenal can't wait to see him momes go right after

each other in the fourth quarter the one thing that Buffalo's doing is they're using a lot of jumbo formations I mean this guy Alec Anderson number 70 he comes in the game a lot man they're in jumbo 15 or 16% of the time a lot of it has to do with the tight end situation in Buffalo Dawson Knox 88 cancade number 86 these are pass receiving tight ends they're really not the hardcore blocking tight ends that you would think a strong running game has but when this man number 70 Anderson comes in the game they

really can rock you running the football and last week I thought the Texan tight end gave up a couple sacks in his pass protection that also helps Josh Allen with some play play action passing having Alec Anderson in there blocking these defensive ends instead of receiving tight tight ends so keep an eye on that as well the Kansas City Chiefs led by Steve spagnolo are very multiple they do a lot on defense they have a lot of volume they got a lot of heat man they bring fire Four Strong they bring Jam fronts at you

load fronts they do a great job with multiple blitzes that are hard to prepare for and they have rehearsed these things I saw them in training camp they practice their ass offs with different types of blitzes for different types of situations and it's not always manto man coverage when they Blitz it's Palms it's like two deep four under it's three deep three under then it's manto man they do a great jobs playing combination coverages they might double a receiver here and not double one over there it's a hard defense to decipher your communication on the

sideline and at halftime and during breaks very important to try to stay up with spagnolo Chris Jones number 95 he is the key member of the Green Team the money pass rushers of the Chiefs every championship football team has a money pass rush outfit and Chris Jones he can line up at Left End right end he can play any position inside he's going to find the weak link that they think is on the bills pass protection unit and they're going to try to get him one-on-one the Chiefs run defense let's keep an eye on it

they're statistically pretty good they're eighth against the Run 18th against the pass but will the Buffalo Bills get into 21 personnel and try to jam the ball against this Chief outfit and are the Chiefs ready for all the different blocking schemes that the Buffalo Bills use with Josh Allen pulling the trigger the Chiefs had eight sacks last week against the Houston Texans they are capable of rocking you with individual rushers stunts blitzes but they have to stop the run and get Josh Allen behind in the chains and get this crowd to really help them they

had 13 missed tackles I really said 14 earlier but one of them was kind of a Miss tackle let's call it 14 to irritate the Chiefs their tackling was poor it was the worst tackling game of the season for the Kansas City Chiefs I guarantee you they put every one of those Miss tackles on a reel and coach spags and Coach colon the dline coach they're making a big deal about it I expect the Chiefs to have their best tackling game in this AFC Championship Game some of the matchups let's keep an eye on these

are key the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills offensive line coach Aaron Cromer I work with this guy he's a great line coach he understands how to coach these guys as a unit and they are athletic Deon Dawkins arguably one of the top tackles in all of football it's not even close and Spencer Brown who's healthy now he returns at right tackle remember he didn't play against the Chiefs the first time and they're solid inside Edwards McGovern and torren are good players they can pull they can double team they can pass protect and they can

communicate and this will be their greatest challenge going up against the Green Team sorry for doing this again but I love the green team because this game is going to come down to money pass rushers it's going to come down to the fourth quarter and it's going to be Chris Jones where are they going to put him they also have omeno back number 90 he's a versatile guy he got a sack last week over the guard he can play on the right side the left side or he can go inside car lus he's got double

digit sacks he can go outside inside he can do anything then they have number 51 Mike Dana who's had some injuries that allows them to put four defensive ends on the field and what they do a lot of the times is they use a load front they'll put three Cana cities on one side of the center and a lot of times they'll isolate Chris Jones and when you see this load front look for all kind of stunts they love to game you and they will Blitz from this front the Chiefs are going to need some

run Defenders to come inside if Buffalo starts to try to pound the ball at them so keep an eye on NY Wharton some of these big defensive tackles have got to play a big role against this running game so they can get the third down I love the linebackers of the Kansas City Chiefs love tranquil 23 love Bolton 32 Leo Chanel he comes in in the base defense he's a great special teams player as well these three linebackers their space tackling and recognition against this running game is going to be huge and then reading out

and playing and recovering on play action pass some of the best men to do it against some of the best operators in Buffalo on the other side it'll be great Trent McDuffy number 22 if you would put a big star on him he might be my favorite corner I have studied this season he can play nickel he can play on the left side the right side he will tackle you man last week I thought he went out against Nico Collins a great receiver for the Texans quite often and handled his own and did a great

job they must limit Shakir number 10 all these yards after the catch he hurt Kansas City in week one they got to be ready for these quick screens and get Shakir on the ground Curtis Samuel number one one he's healthy he's making big plays down the field and after the catch these two men for Buffalo are Twitchy and fast they have great acceleration and Josh Allen has a lot of confidence in them the bills also have some big receivers Keon Coleman number zero they brought in Amari Cooper in a trade from the Cleveland Browns and

I love this guy ma Hollands number 13 the ex Raider he's been around the league a little bit and he'll go up against Jaylen Watson number 35 I love Watson earlier in the season when I watched him play against the Chargers I thought he was awesome he was out for a long time he came back last week he played 40 snaps which is huge I expect Watson to go wire to wire this week but Watson and McDuffy against these receivers that is freaking awesome and again the running backs this running game I mean they got

after Denver and Baltimore man all three of these backs cook Johnson and Davis with Josh Allen who's got 531 yards and 12 touchdowns this is going to be a great great battle well you got to pick somebody and as I said last week I'm a proud member of the bills Mafia I love what the bills have done they find ways to win but the Green Team the Green Team of the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth quarter with the game on the line Chris Jones car lus om manah who Dana the green team gets it

done for the Chiefs 23 to 20 in a game that is going to be decided [Music] late for