How to Find Winners in Horse Racing: Hugh Taylor and Kevin Blake

hello and welcome to an exclusive Bandung special and at the races calm my name is Kevin Blake and I'm delighted to be joined by legendary after racist tipster Hugh Taylor the plan is for you and I to spend an X while discussing all sorts of subjects and variables that relate to finding a packing winners we'd also discuss human eyes experience with breeding and opening race horses and how that is impacted on our betting and how we see and read at the sport that we love horse racing so Hugh thanks for joining us first of all

but before we get into the nitty-gritty I can only imagine that this lockdown has been a massive change for you in terms of your daily routine yeah absolutely it's I suppose for me just working from anywhere near changes yes for a lot of people actually quite enjoy so much space a bit because I decided that or suggested to my boss that maybe I could do it in writing that doesn't you know doing a piece on Carey McAvoy done a piece on how I got involved in racing you know it's not been a hard year for

me at all but you notice as I say very strange times and there's a lot of people in a lot very difficult situations so you know that's just the way it is unfortunately gets into racing to the depth or anything like the depth that you do a large part of your normal day in normal circumstances would be taking off watching racing replays and what-have-you so as soon as you haven't been doing much of that and do you think that change will serve to freshen you up do you think when I went racing eventually returns will

you do so with a renewed enthusiasm well nobody knows how I go after [Music] when the whole system buy a piece about changes you do well after a break kind of a break it's been a different experience for trainers I'm sure with with the new measures are in place so there's gonna be a certain season there however these scenarios form that how you know when we eventually do get racing straight into q in terms of the race reading process but I want to know is the race reading process looked like for you Taylor you wake

up in the morning you have your breakfast you sit down in front of the TV you start watching first replay of the day how do you get a feel for a race you watch watch they pull you through and work backwards from there or do you have a more methodical approach to working through my day so the first part of the day is writing that day's column and obviously I've done 99% of the work for that day before so are normally finished at 10 o'clock I tend to spend the next maybe varies per hour to

2 hours doing sort of daily work which is basically speed figures from any all weather meetings I only do speakers for weather meters I don't do those the next day I then spend a certain amount varies each day catching up on videos I can never spend as much time as I want because I'm always then into looking at the next days racing you've got to leave enough time for that so you know maybe looking through past videos looking through other things you know look at different angles but lunch time at home with looking at minetti's

meetings okay so we'll say a lot of your review work involves working backwards from Lewis decorations in front of you well to a coin yeah I use my shotgun quite a lot we all use these chakras these days and the first thing I look actually when I'm looking at stage racing because lap sees I might have twenty at least horses in Australia that doesn't mean they're all horses that I'm necessarily expecting to battle next time the ones I've kind of made notes on then if there's no weather meeting I'll look through race for me interactive

because that's where I saw my ratings and I'll have a look at just get to get a feel of whether I feel this something just just to stand out on the pure figures occasionally not very often but even if it does tell you they need to look in more detail at the race I'll then look at time form for a variety of reasons I'll look at the opposition in case of something I miss on one of the opponents I'll look at what they're saying about pace because I've got fairly easy to scan pace map I'll

try and then work out a number of races that I'm interested in looking at but I think that might find something in so there will be a few races those three meetings each side so say there's 20 races I might rule out there's nobody else on failure you know I don't really think he's opposable or erase it just looks too difficult I'll try and get it down to a manageable level and but one one aware of this I bear in mind this is probably you know afternoon I'm starting to do this I know that Betty's

really well in there four o'clock afternoon nine o'clock the following day and therefore I need a loss of our car just holding on three races and try and find three horses I mean because probably three-quarters of the horses are finds get smashed in the betting anyway I'm basically keeping quite a wide base because I have to try and keep as much as possible and you've mentioned you what strikes me is must be one of the base difficulties that anyone in your position hands dealing with British racing in that there's just so much of you know

you mentioned there you never seem to have enough time to do as much as you'd like to do and I think that that's purely a volume issue I don't I'm basically just study racing I can't possibly keep on top of it so I know there's some consistent it's a zoo working teams and I can completely understand why they would do that because the division of labor come then you just have to be ruthless and cut down on what you're doing to each particular darian I mean for instance when I'm going through videos there are certain

courses I just don't because they series tells me I'm not gonna find anything or less life is fine something that's gonna throw up so most I'm interested in the future conversely there's certain tracks where I always make sure I review those races because this way often going to be something that I'm going to use in the future and then comes to watching the races themselves you are you going into every race that you had that you have in mind to review with an open mind and that anyone any one horse in that race could potentially

be on your radar afterwards or are you going in with you know specific hopes maybe a horse that caught your eye at a time before you want to see how they developed and from run to run was a or how to progress or what more you can learn about them you know basically what I'm saying is are you watching every horse in every race as best you can to a point yeah although I do find that going to races it depends on the track of certain tracks I'm always looking for outliers they run on the

wrong side and things like and there's some shots we're more interested in that than others or somewhere I don't feel there's a lot to be gleaned from that sort of a nice approach well there might be something familiar to the pro side you know before you start looking at a replay you might look at something like what be finishing centage phase are and that kind of thing so that you'd you've got an idea what sorts of horses could have been disadvantaged or advantaged by the way the race was run so there's some replays fast-forward and

I know straightaway there's absolutely nothing that's gonna be interests me and it's pretty much what you call the face value race small fields ones where it's really the true pace and none of the horses ever changed places and that sort of thing you can watch those ones and you can just move on I don't spend a lot of time watching replays of sellers for instance I think there's something interesting that comes up but yes because you you trying to saw something that's really hard these days it's um chances are if you saw something this fairly

obvious lots and lots of other people would spot a bit ok so somebody sounds over in terms of a general interior I know we don't like generalize too much but you you would say he'll try and establish the shape of a race and in your mind what should have happened we'll say with regard to draw with regard to position around odor fact variables that might be in the mix and I assume you're trying to find horses that have done well in light of fire hose expected or wasn't expected of them because of those factors yeah

if you if you look back through my columns over the years the one phrase that I'm afraid result you know it's a cliche but that's what I've always looked for in terms of trying to find horses that might be over price and that continues to be the way he's trying to find something that the betting market doesn't know about a horse and that's not the only way that's one of the ways to find out finding a hostess better than this finishing position all the distances feeding suggests and I know in my own mind I know

my approach wouldn't be too dissimilar but I know I would always be more excited about spotting one that's done well and has been going backwards at the lion rather than one that's done well and is hitting the line would you agree with that because I suppose more people are likely to spot the one it's hitting the line well you know for example something like they're a little bit more responsible than ones that have been up there forcing an overly strong pace and I've gone backwards of the finish we do traditionally when going if you went

about 20 years and you were people were looking at I hats on and spotting eye catches it was always a fast finish yet and there was twenty years ago there was really no no sorry no attention to the pace in that race it was just finished it was always the ICAT since then a lot more sophisticated we've got a lot more data about now that's a difficult one to say me because I still find that from a sectional point of view the ones that really interest me are the ones still tend to be sometimes the

ones that have been poorly positions and I'm finished well there people tend to start more so it swings around the routes a little bit you're absolutely right in soon first time out horses I'm much more interested in the ones that show the same NFA the traps may have needed their own something lidar definitely one where I'd agree I think you're talking about once I've done too much too soon and probably face in the closing stages chase to harder place I don't think there is over there as some of the the position line closes but I

do think the improvers really that's my view anyway and just I'd be interested knowing you because I know personally I I placed a lot of emphasis probably more so than most on the first third of the race the star you know how much energy a horse has had to expend to get into position and how well they've settled you know is the guy feel that has quite a bigger bearing on the end result than most people seem to give a credit for is that's something you would pay more or less average attention to we do

think yes I think the race is sometimes the least important and the point you're making and it's also probably that's again less things that happen in the final two or three furlongs over race in the early stages particularly fair there are the market is really caught so within the last few years I would say certainly in this country anyway I don't know if it's the case in in Ireland I'm not sure you know places like Don dork I'm not sure I don't follow it close enough to know what the what the difference is and if

you can actually walk around the bend there but certainly on the old weather in here the scenario markets closed up with quite a lot but yeah I agree and good ideas stop a race you know pause a video halfway through a race especially the car remember the results of every when you're watching the rear buyer and tell you tell yourself decide which sauce is in the best position which sources in the worst having water while the sectionals are and that sort of thing because I can that can be a useful tool you know sometimes you

pause the races sailing feels on the or whether three furlongs out you can tell you know which sources are just too far unless they've gone absolutely crazy gala and tells us to leave more like Ashley so yeah I agree the point that you're making a race is being a corn absolutely and it can be that can be missed by market sometimes more than the life stages yeah I know I've heard you say it before believers watching racing and reading races and getting to know horses you know you're forever looking for things that are different for

the horse does something different to what they normally do you know can be either negatively or positively it can be a big pointer to take away with you you know at the example to tie in the point I'm making now with did the previous points but the first third of a race you know I thought it was great example of us on a high profile stage with enable in the act you know she's obviously run a great race and just got a run down Nate either was my second battles early on because her demeanor and

the the first third of the race was so different to what we're used to you know normally she's very alive and she she often operation ariane whereas shaman last October she just she was behind the bridle you know I know why she's gone on to run a very good race for me she just didn't look in the same in the same frame of mind or the same farm if you will from a narrative stage and I would very much stand over that you know you can take that to a muscle as well you see horses

you expect to race in a certain manner in the first third of the race and if they're if you're doing something different it might well be that there's something not quite right on the day you know if you don't respect them to be strong and they're behind the bridle and they've gone on to run below farm you know to its needs it it's a big red cross in terms of legitimate excuse [Music] because there's no just become react yeah and there's no question I could that that would be the most energy inefficient time almost to

make a forward movement everything is accelerating from naught to 60 kilometers an hour all at the same time and you want to you're asking your horse to go even faster than the rest to make up links to that stage and it's very very expensive lengths to be buying you know not equal frontrunners yeah you see it with horses that just missed the cake at the right it drives me mad I really don't like seeing if you see riders like you say scrub in the head of them for a few tries to try and take back

a few of those links and I see a big correlation when that happens the horse and ends up on heels because he's asked him to accelerate the horse you got quite fired up and more often country to rider have to take back to need to get off heels and as horse over racing as well so it's Astra's no you know there's not many horses especially in a low-grade handicap for example it's very rarely a horse would have that sort of a first far along and be able to recover and come back so the stacks are

a big big thing for me I make note of it's probably probably go bit too far I would open up and make a note of and how every horse in every race starts I've got a series of symbols and they correspond to various you know from being a whale which is better than the average to you know twelve slow very slow eccentric so I think it's worth knowing busy use patterns as well insert pace mapping would be a big thing for me and it can be a big help of pace mapping you can anticipate how

quickly a horse will you know especially when you know more about in terms of runs if you can anticipate have they're likely to start it can be a big been in building the picture of the early stages of those races obvious events and experiences maybe run once or twice I'm actually not unhappy if it's drawn why because if he does slightly mister rank it's got more options the horse you can even use because in the major and novice there's gonna be a lot of dead wood in there that this is just gonna drop out towards

the rear in the early stages in it it always seems much easier because of the disparity and ability and experience force it's drawn why so angry position and can usually if you've got horses got experience in a race with not many even if it's drawing you know 10 or 11 it can usually get at least no more than one off the rail in the early stage has been in a good position ya know if you can see the same pinging in big races to you know I always get the impression Franken Vittori would much rather

be drawn wider than lower in a lot of those big races because you'll see here John from the gates and interesting therefore little oil for ferlyn I just note these races off on a pacemakers in them you just sit and assess and wave before commits to a position whereas if you're drawing low you have to make your decision much quicker because if you don't if you want to go forward and you don't someone else is going to be in your spot and all of a sudden your tooth right there is a risk of getting trapped

wide when you're doing doing a Frankie if you if you will you know a particularly good at and just hang out there prefer long before slapping and like in maidens and races with less experienced horses the same thing reasons I suppose like you say bigger disparity and abilities and in those races with lots of inexperienced horses you get plenty that just floored stacked quickly and we'll get into the strike quickly and as a result the field is a little bit more as spread out a prefer loner so okay so the real star cluster formers are

the ones who are able to do things as late as possible you know you think of cricket and all sorts of sportswear and it's the same with you absolutely right in terms of where he positions himself and he just waits and he picks his moments to slot in to do that because if you end up being three [Music] people advising all the top jockeys got people giving them advice on the best way to ride race and where the paces [Music] that was faster my job I was supposed to tell him that but he was doing

anyway he'd be saying to him well paste and he and he rattle off the you know the two or three making they're running and I'm sure that most of its our jockeys especially in the big race is just going for running their plastics only can we know for the they'll be they lived on their homework and they'll know where the pace is and where the men worked out where the gaps are slaughtering the likely to be will be to going on and then the rest are all medium types or you know tend to chase the

leaders race problem in which case it might be a bit more difficult you can you can help yourself to have an advantage we thought have been knowing where you like it fell to slaughter and then when you get to the very very highest level you get you get all sorts of bluffs and doubled lofts and so you know when you have a buddy Doyle but a few different pacemakers and you know they're just thinking another couple of levels deeper and we've seen some fantastically tactical races over the years I was only watching one back I've

forgotten about how enthralling of Oz it was these clips that not now Kato one coming across to the nearside the early stages that race are absolutely fantastic authorized to the pacemaker that's shot for and body Doyle had two pacemakers in there for George Washington they've initially shot forward and then taken right back and left left or her eyes pacemaker ignore at all by himself is an absolute no pauper and farm mean why the new body Doyle horses are brought back to the main body defeated presumably to play the George Washington speed and take away that

the stamina to rise you know say again that's that's deeper thinking again but just on the subject you of the importance of jockeys we can have a little bit to the importance of trainers you know would you find yourself studying trade they're not just trainer form you know we're just quite well established but trainer patterns you know do you try to get to know certain trainers and what to expect from that terms of how did they campaign their horses and but they might be taking absolute laughing that's the equally the single most significant way you

got to approach trainers jockeys it's no use just knowing who people people will often say to me when the most often questioners I guess most often answer is a widely tips course because it's written by jockey wives very good citizens or jockeys you know my answer to that is well if you look at the jockeys championship every year and look at the top ten then we all showing a huge level states loss so you know basically still looking for value and generally in my opinion the top jockeys into the holsters price question yeah absolutely and

knowing your trainers and knowing what the habits are what their hands are what their strengths are how their horses sense of run in different situations which trainers tend to be tend to have flurries of form which trainers improve a lot from the first run while most of them improve a lot for the first one but it's the degree to which they do so and the concepts to do they improve when the horse has almost been being outside sometimes you know there's some trains like a salute yes that's one of the keys to the to understanding

the game I think understanding what different trainers trainers again it's generalization with trainers tend to be creatures of habit and you can you can find some surprisingly robust patterns if you go looking for them you know just to give two small examples in Ireland and Pat Flynn you'll generally find with are very few winners in the first couple of months of the seas and the Harry Rogers the same the horses they carry send them to the races into fitness I think is part of these and they're just no rush but by the time you hit

June July you know the carcasses might have run pretty poorly two or three times but generally it doesn't always happen but generally those start to run into form and you know having everyone will tell you all there are four six months but you know you know your guide about us know what to expect finding little patterns like that little tendencies can be can be quite useful yeah definitely trying to think of an example I always sort of tell me Carol is a trainer who can go through quite long spells of just fairly ordinary form and

then ill suddenly this windy and cracking winter on the old weather and you just kept on turning our witness but he's tended to be a shiny new one see this severe form he's gonna have a flurry of winners and then perhaps he won't see so many for a few months after that there's loss of a little not queer slime but little habits like that and yeah because lots lots of leads I say the trouble databases have become more sophisticated and more people have got them now so more people are aware of these kind of things

there's a lot more awareness about this kind of thing than there was even 10 years ago so you perhaps need to do that too eager to find them but Hugh we're up and running we've spoken about some of the theories and some of the thoughts behind how you read racing and how you go about your study and getting to the next stage which we're going to talk about which is hopefully backing winners so please join us again for part two of this after race is dark home bedding special