ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the channel yeah I have my shirt off don't worry about it I'm I tried to put a shirt on but just swim in the ocean and it feels really weird so I need to shower first but we're going to go over everything you need to know about Tesla and the broader markets here in this video today's been a pretty eventful day Tesla stock is down about 2% at the time of recording this video and we do have the major event really for markets this week coming tomorrow and there's a lot of different opinions that are getting thrown out there of what that's going to do to markets and really a lot of fear mongering I believe more than anything else but there could be more fear that comes into markets depending on the potential outcome and we'll speak on that in this video as well let's start with some breaking news today for Tesla Tesla's just built its 10,000th mega pack and it looks like the boring company's tunnel connecting Giga Texas to an outbound what is presumably going to be a parking lot is almost finished and we will be having cars flowing through this in what looks like no time and it looks like the Tesla cyber truck duy is heading to the 2024 SEMA show in Las Vegas the model y was the bestselling EV in Sweden last month battery electric vehicles bevs had 35. 1% market share in the country with the model y far out selling even the second bestselling vehicle in Sweden and Tesla sold 68,276 per year-over-year did data from the China passenger car Association the cpca showed on Monday Tesla has launched third-party business tokens allowing thirdparty apps to give more value to Tesla owners quote thirdparty applications can now interact with cars they have been granted access to by a Tesla for business admins and nearly 5 years after its original unveiling Tesla cybertruck deliveries have officially begun today in Canada Tesla has secured a new $200 million megapack contract in New South Wales Australia the project will consist of two $ 10000 million battery energy storage system systems each sized at 200 megaw 400 megawatt hours with construction that will start in mid to late 2025 and it looks like Tesla has installed a 45 ft LED screen at its upcoming Hollywood Diner and supercharger another one will be installed as well and you'll be able to watch movie clips while you charge and eat the glass door to the diner has also been installed so getting closer and closer to being operational and before we go over the option activity the short position in Tesla some sentiment barometers we need to talk what's happening in markets today because again tomorrow is your major event for this week and really for this year everyone's been waiting for the election and there is implications to different sectors and the economy as a whole based on who wins this election and the makeup of Congress as I've said before here on this channel the worst thing possible is a sweep and a contested election so if we don't know who the president is going to be for an extended period of time that is a major problem for markets because it really affects liquidity okay so about 80% of the volume you see on the S&P sometimes more sometimes less on any given day is just market makers pinging orders back and forth just to create a market just have liquidity out there okay about 20% of the order flow in the in the markets is actual orders right actually people buying stocks well if you don't know the president is and there's a period of wide uncertainty then you will see that 20% of buyers really slow down and it doesn't take much to tip that balance and start seeing prices decline by a wide margin now we won't know if it's a sweep until we know who the president is so I think a contested election is probably the more imminent worst worst case scenario let's be honest but I mean there is always that chance like Al Gore and Bush in 2000 where you don't know who the president is for a month or so and that's where this would be a huge problem personally if if we have the election tomorrow if we don't know by tomorrow night which most people think we won't if we know by Wednesday morning or midday Wednesday this is not going to be a huge problem but if if it takes multiple days if we're going into Thursday and we don't know who the president is that's going to be an issue now CNBC crunched some of the prior election numbers for us what the markets have done before and after um elections and and you can see here the S&P 500 after the election um in 2020 was up 2. 2% the day after a week later you were up 5.
23% and a month later you were up 8. 83 per. so good returns there 2020 obviously there was a lot of money printing there was a lot of accommodation um during this period in time so I don't think that's as relevant to look at just because of the other dynamics that we're taking place but 2016 the markets were up 1.
11% the day later a week later markets were up 1. 91% a month later you were up 5% and a year later you were up 4. 64% so that's that's a that's still pretty good right 2012 you were down 2.
4% a day later and down about 4% the week later um and you actually ended the year down down negative 0. 15% and in 2008 obviously we were going into a recession at that time the day after the election results markets were down 5. 27% so the markets threw threw up pretty hard um November 4th 2008 and a week later you were down 10.
62% so sometimes um elections can lead to some pretty extreme volatility the median return the day later after an election is NE 0. 66% so you normally do sell off the day after the election a week later you tend to be down about a third of 1% 1 month later you're actually up 2 38% for the median return and for the year up 3. 72% so in the very near term you know the even after an election it still tends to be kind of a a weak period for markets at least historically now bond yields for the 10year treasury are falling six basis points today down to 4.
30% we're still up a lot uh six basis point drop on the 10e treasury is a pretty big drop for any given day but considering how much we've run how much yields have went up it's really not that big so it is good but it's not that big okay hopefully that makes some sense the real million-dollar question is how do bonds react to let's say a trump win or a camela win from prevailing you know kind of sentiment and positioning and and commentary we've heard from investors if a camela win were to happen you would see 10year treasury yields most likely Fall if a trump win were to happen you would most likely see 10year treasury yields go up now that's the normal correlation but it's the reasoning behind a rise in 10year treasury yields that has been worrisome I mean we only had 12,000 jobs created last month and 10year treasury yields went up 10 basis points that day that's not supposed to happen you should have dropped 10 basis points so there is a a really big disconnect here and it has to do with the election so after if let's say Trump does win the bond market could become unhinged and yields could rally a lot more from here we could be talking 5% or 5 and a half% there's there's really no telling when a market like the bond market comes unhinged it's it's kind of like the stock market right you know when you're going into a covid like event it's going to fall you don't know how much it's going to fall same thing to the upside when when markets get all behind a a certain narrative there's no telling how high they can go right that's kind of where you're at with 10-year treasury yields and that I think could make investors nervous especially if markets are correct in pricing in a trump win and if Trump does win so I will specifically be watching the bond market it could also make sense why USC bond yields actually come down after anyone wins because we've we've seen yields run up into the election itself could be a situation of you know buy the rumor sell the news here on the day today the Russell 2000 is up 0. 62% again because of yields falling on that 10e treasury NASDAQ is in the red negative 0. 03% S&P down a tenth of 1% and the Dow which is fascinating is down a half of 1% usually the da and Russell kind of move together because they're both economically sensitive um the Dow is not as s sensitive to interest rates and yields like the Russell is so I guess that makes sense from that perspective but normally you see the Russell and the da kind of trade together now the da and the Russell again structurally are a lot different but that's the correlation we have experienced in recent days nonetheless here on the day today for Tesla stock is bearish uh at least sentiment at 44 NE uh yesterday you were neutral at 50 52 so not as good as yesterday message volume is normal at 46 yesterday it was low at 41 and the participation ratio is high at 58 option activity today for Tesla's stock is coming in very positive positive order value of 84% you have 130 different trades totaling 98.
6 million and as I explained previously here on the channel you do have two times as many calls relative to puts for this week so there is a lot of bullish positioning in Tesla that we can definitively say so people are betting Tesla Stock's going to go higher over the rest of this week now short interest upper flow sitting at 2. 84% 9. 72 billion currently sold short in the stock 79.
2 million shares uh that are sold short and here on the day today you actually have 1. 08 million shares that are being covered on so there's actually shorts covering today on net relative to shorts selling Tesla stock which which is pretty interesting given Tesla's down almost 2% CNN's fear and greed index is coming in today at 44 uh Friday you were at 48 so sentiment is dropping a little bit today which again makes sense because markets are red Google Trends data did show a pretty large up up trend Trend uptick if you will for the Cyber truck cyber truck went from 37 to 43 model y dropped a little bit from 35 to 34 the model 3 went up from 29 to 30 and the model snx staying unchanged at 12 and 8 respectively per of stocks currently trading above their 50 day moving average is at 50. 3 2% so today you see 2.
2% of all stocks breaking above that 50-day moving average so despite what you're seeing on the headline markets there are a decent number of stocks that are actually doing well today from a technical perspective Tesla was down over 3% at one point today you did find some support that started to come in around that 20-day moving average currently at about $237 34 per share if if you get back to that level that's going to be a drop of about $7 from here it it to me it's possible but given Tesla's earnings you you really would need to see a riskof environment for the markets as a whole to really see Tesla fall materially lower than that because right below that at $234 74 you do have the 50-day moving average which is H going to serve as another very solid level of support so as long as things don't go bad here in markets I think Tesla is going to do just fine for the rest of this week with that said ladies and gentlemen that is going to conclude this video that is all of your major news and your events that have taken place today in markets you did also have Factory orders month over month that came in at negative half of 1% the estimate was negative 0.
