Hello everybody welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodity space today I'm having an epic conversation with doomberg author of The acclaimed doomberg substack where he writes about energy finance and geopolitics we're going to be discussing all three of those topics getting his thoughts on an impending energy crisis in Europe and what he sees as the potential collapse of the European Union along with how natural gas and nuclear nuar energy are set to change everything when it comes to the AI Revolution his thoughts on the Obscure tin market and of course the gold and silver markets as well without further Ado here is my conversation with doomberg I wanted to start the conversation today with something you wrote in a recent edition of your substack where you said unless and until Europe reconciles with Russia begins a massive exploration and production campaign for all three fossil fuels and embarks on a drive to build as many nuclear power reactors as it can the EU is stuck in an economic Doom Loop that can only end in its destruction so walk us through what you're seeing with regards to Europe and energy and how it could lead to the destruction of the European Union one of the things that we find interesting about macroeconomic analysis is despite the fact that most people intuitively know that energy is an incredibly important variable to study very few people include energy as a foundational aspect of their mental models to that they use to try to understand the world and of course one of the differentiating aspects of our writing is that we use energy as such a foundation and once you have that sort of axiomatic Instinct about energy um you can very easily explain that which might seem confusing to others so the particular subject at hand that causes to WR report was mariio dr's report on the eu's competitiveness or lack thereof and his proposed solutions to address this competitive gap between the European Union and especially the US and China and um for all the hoop jumping the report goes through it Dodges the most fundamental issue which is the European Union which notably does not include the UK and Norway they are not EU members the member states of the European Union produce basically very little of its own energy um in the piece um we we mentioned how the EU consumes something like 10% of the world's oil uh but produces only a half a percent of it um it's similar numbers for natural gas um it produces a bit more of its own coal but not much and so the laws of physics just dictate that you cannot project economic and you know U military power if you're an energy vassel um they rely on others for their energy um this was okay and manageable when a steady supply of reliable and cheap fossil fuels was on offer from Russia via Pipeline and um oil and and petroleum products alike that's no longer the case and that's it like that's the level of analysis you need to do um Renewables are not going to solve the EU problem um if you don't have energy you can't maintain industrial might and military might is a derivative of industrial might and so um the three things that we say in the piece that the EU needs to do they aren't going to do like let's let's be clear we don't predict that's what they'll do and for example like reconciling with Russia um even mentioning that they need to do that will inflame some people um and of course we're thinking in terms of years and decades not months and who knows how the war in Ukraine will resolve and who will be in charge of what countries um by then but the physics are just undeniable um Europe doesn't produce its own energy you you can't have um heavy manufacturing with a dumb energy policy so if you don't have heavy manufacturing you can't be competitive against the energy superpowers that do and it's just that simple now there's going to be comments below this there's always a lot of comments online about it's all by Design now in that same article you also noted how utterly out of touch political Elites such as drogy and Ursula vland are with reality it's a question I've covered many times on the show I know at doomberg you're very free of Hyperbole and conspiracy theories you kind of just examine the facts that are presented to you but are these people really this out of touch really this ignorant kind of caught up in their own bubble um or are all of the seeming policy blenders not only surrounding energy but immigration and the economy part of a greater plan being pushed by the Davos Elite uh you know we we understand why people hold such views the elites of the western world uh confound us with their own seeming lack of basic understanding of both energy economics and apparently um you know military strategy as we're seeing NATO being handed what amounts to a defeat on the battlefield um the sanctions as we predicted weeks after they were levied were all but designed to not only fail but backfire I still can't convince myself um that Justin Trudeau's obvious incompetence for example because he's not a very intelligent man doesn't explain the insanity of some of his policies more than some mischievous plot now some will argue that there's somebody pulling the strings behind Justin Trudeau and Ursula Vander and but you know Mario dragi is is a very talented person seems to be relatively patriotic um tried his best to save the the Euro for example famously when he was the head of the European Central Bank um I I'm still in the incompetence camp and not in the malice camp and if there truly is a small sort of inner cabal of people who are deeply evil and they probably exist um at best they are exercising their power indirectly I I if I look at the the recent election results in Europe for example we're seeing as we predicted rightward tilt um the people and their votes are having an impact for example we're seeing policy changes in Germany we're seeing um coalitions being formed to keep certain parties out of power but by doing so they have to make certain compromises and and and uh you know partner with some strange bed fellows to say the least but um I think this kind of thing will correct itself um and so um if there is uh a small cabal of of truly evil people um they will be overcome um the upward direction of human progress is not something we would bet against um as shown in the global energy consumption graphs that just keep going up and to the right at 2% a year uh forever um so um if there is such a desire it will fail and um means will be regressed to and prices will come and go and the human endeavor will continue to progress forward hey guys just a quick break to hear from today's sponsor Ark silver gold osum they offer personalized service and competitive prices with no minimum purchase for silver gold platinum or osmium here's just some of the comments left on this YouTube channel about Ark sgo and owner Ian everard have bought from Ark good source and price I cannot say enough good about Ian and his company he is the most honest individual I could find in order to buy precious medals if you are looking to buy precious medals I recommend Ian at arkil he is a straight shooter so go to argo. com and contact Ian everard today at 37264 9441 or by email at Ian argo. com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you well I want to pull on a thread there regarding NATO getting defeated on the battlefield in regards to Ukraine why is it that we're hearing the exact opposite from the Western media and why is it that Western politicians are seemingly hellbent on the only option here is total Victory when that is so apparently not occurring at least I mean you hear all sorts of different things from different sources I know from your own analysis that you think it's not playing out in favor of of the Ukrainian forces and I've heard many people say the same so why is are we being fed a counternarrative and why are the politicians in the west just not willing to to concede or to at least sit down at the negotiating table one of the reasons why you try your best to not get involved in Wars is that you might lose them um and in this instance um again back to energy and physics Russia is a global energy gig of power it has outstanding Technology and Manufacturing sectors which are often under estimated in the west um we have been boning this relative techno arrogance that we see amongst predominantly Western analysts who just you know um assume that Russia won't be able to run its own oil wells or natural gas production facilities without the help of Western you know um suppliers um this is nonsense anybody who has any IND you know international business experience knows that Russia is a formable competitor um they have excellent education so we not being russof files over here you have to be realist and just acknowledge that they are a superpower they have the world's largest and most advanced nuclear power Arsenal um this war is much closer to their border than it is to the US's border the logistics of supplying an army right next to you is a lot easier than the logistics of Supply supplying an army from the Western Hemisphere where most of your components are sourced from China uh and they have way more people and um to them if you read the Russian propaganda which we do we read the Ukrainian propaganda we read the Western propaganda you can't read anything without reading propaganda but when you read the Russian propaganda this is being um shaped internally as an existential struggle and um it's certainly an existential struggle for Ukraine I should say like no country and no citizens of any country have suffered nor will suffer more than the ukrainians as a result of this war um they will say we had no choice this is Putin's uh aggress and that all may be true um but the facts are that Russia has more manpower um more Weaponry more capacity to build its own weaponry and has developed substantial technological advances since the start of the war and those advances are bearing fruit and even in the financial times and the New York Times The Washington Post were beginning to see articles where there are discussions about how maybe there's a a land for admiss to Nato deal or some other um negotiated settlement where Russia keeps the territories it has conquered at least temporarily and maybe we don't recognize Russia's sovereignty over that and and in 20 years or 30 years like Germany reconciled Ukraine will someday reconcile as well and in the meantime we'll welcome them into NATO um we we would fade those hopes um because the entire reason Russia went into war was to keep Ukraine out of NATO it would be hard to imagine that um with momentum on its side on the battlefield it would agree to such terms and frankly it's hard to imagine that certain aspects of Ukrainian society would be comfortable agreeing to those terms as well so it's hard to see how the war isn't settled on the battlefield however the war resolves it will be militarily and um if Nato one of our major concerns is is how will NATO respond to losing a war will they escalate um which ends in a nuclear confrontation um so I don't know how we get out of the situation we're in but I think any objective analysis of progress on the battlefield um would tell you that momentum is clearly not on the side of NATO and Ukraine and by the way we have a very very tough winter coming for Ukraine uh in what we have openly described and believe are war crimes um Russia has targeted and knocked out much of the civilian energy infrastructure all across Ukraine the Russians would say that this electricity is used to produce weapons and makes it a fair Target but disproportionately this is going to fall hardest on the people of Ukraine and if it's an especially tough winter luckily last winter was mild um if we have a tough winter in Ukraine if you don't have electricity and District heating it's very difficult to imagine that we don't see significant migration out of Ukraine um which I believe is is the point of those targets targeted strikes on the energy structure and it's what makes them war crimes and so um trying to analyze the situation to understand the reality to the best we can does not mean that we are hoping for any particular outcome I I just think you have to be realistic about what's going on and uh it's difficult to imagine that the political support needed to keep tens of billions of dollars worth of Weaponry going into Ukraine whether we even have stock Pals to give is a different question um we're not on a war economy footing but Russia is and Russia's a not a country with a gas station on it as so many politicians over here believe it is a very sophisticated country that has defeated uh armies as they roll from uh east to west multiple times uh and this is in their mind just the latest example of them having to do that um there's an entirely different way to see the war and and we understand that but this is our view very interesting I want to shift to the United States now because we have perhaps one of the most polarizing presidential elections in recent history coming up as far as I'm aware neither candidate has discussed so far cutting back on government spending and reigning in the ballooning debt and deficits no matter who wins is this going to continue to be a print or die scenario in your view and do you see much of a difference between a trump and a Harris term in terms of how it impacts the economy and financial markets if you go by history um Trump was just as prolific a spender as any Democratic regime um and our base case is that um it's never popular to cut spending and um there's just an insufficient um ground swell for fiscal discipline it used to be that these things mattered you know the contract with America and nuking grich and all of these things and during the Clinton Administration he he did to Clinton's Everlasting credit um balance the budget deliver to Surplus in partnership with the Republican Congress which is probably kind of an ideal outcome you know mixed Congress and President either way you know Republican with Democrats or a Democratic president with Republicans because it forces some semblance of compromise and shaves off the edges of extreme policy implementations um there's one possible exception I don't know how realistic this is but there is this talk that um Elon Musk will be put in charge of you know um cutting government spending at the same rate at which he has for example taken out various Twitter employees um we would we would suspect that he would find this new challenge to be significantly more formidable than completely owning your own company and firing everybody um that you deem fit this is not how you know the the government employee unions have created laws and have judges in place and so on that make it almost impossible to fire somebody would require um substantially more Authority than even the president of the United States has granted um as a result of winning an election so um but I don't think that's going to happen anyway I I think um if Trump wins I I would suspect that um musk probably has better things to do with this time um but if certainly if if Harris wins or we get a a democratic sweep which is possible um then yeah I think it's print until we die I don't think it's print or die because I don't know how we get out of a trillion dollars in debt every 90 days and a trillion two now in annual interest payments you know it's uh we're going to run a very interesting experiment where the the global Reserve currency um is printing its way out of debt printing its way to pay off its interest actually which which is essentially a Ponzi scheme well I want to discuss gold as well and how it might play a role in this situation because obviously we have the brick Summit coming up I believe it's October 26 uh 22nd to 24th hosted by Russia there's a lot of Rumblings that there's going to be some kind of gold and commodities back currency system announced this was also flaunted maybe a year ago um when I believe the Russian Embassy in Kenya tweeted that this gold back currency is going to be announced it was not uh Putin has mentioned they are working on an alternate payment system I wonder what your thoughts are currently surrounding The Narrative of the bricks creating their own currency for trade potentially backed by gold yeah I don't necessarily think it's a currency um in the way that we think of the US dollar um it's more a mechanism to settle uh imbalances that arise in international trade um using gold as an anchor neutral Reserve asset um and some basket of currencies um that I hear is tentatively being called quote the unit which um rather humorous name for it um but um and the numbers I saw it would be like 40% back by gold um and so I Believe by the way that this is the the most rational explanation for why gold has basically gone straight up this year um because if there's going to be some form of a new neutral Reserve asset used for the settlement of imbalances in international trade that involves gold then the price of gold in US dollars needs to be much higher um and so um we shall see uh the meeting is in Kazan as you said and it's hosted by Russia and we've written a bit of a speculative piece that maybe Lula would Brazilian president Lula might torpedo the whole effort um as sort of a double agent for the US that was a bit of a fun piece that triggered a bit of controversial response but that's that just means we're we're writing provocatively um we'll see we're watching with interest as everybody else I and I should disclose it I'm uncomfortably long gold I took a little bit off recently it it it unsettles me when gold goes straight up because it usually means other aspects of my portfolio um need to be uh dealt with and perhaps some concern about um because you know gold in our view is not an investment and it's not speculative media it's a it's a store of value and if gold is going up then the value of the US dollar is going down is is how we interpreted and we have a lot of US dollar based assets um that don't involve gold and and they would all be um you know being derated uh because of currency debasement so um and very very few Western investors have any exposure to Gold that matters and so um you know social cohesion and economic crises and so on if gold were to if we were to wake up tomorrow and gold were $5,000 an ounce um the small you know double digit percent of my net worth that's currently in Gold would double and the rest of my portfolio would go down by more than that and on balance I would not be happy that gold is at $5,000 an ounce and so um but I I I own it and other real assets as Hedges not Investments and you know you don't really want your Hedges to pay off yeah absolutely any thoughts on Silver here obviously very far from its all-time highs holding above $31 at this point in time I believe I've had a lot of silver Bulls on this show Making what some might consider outr rageous calls $50 $100 silver is is on the horizon it's going to go parabolic you've seen these types of interviews you've seen those types of headlines I wonder what your thoughts are on the future of the silver market yeah I I see those that's sort of content click bity type stuff which you know um sometimes the YouTube um thumbnail is different than the discussion and not being on YouTube professionally I can't say that I understand how the the algorithm Works in that way um for more Nuance but equally bullish view I would suggest maybe give a plug to uh one of our friends in a new substack writer who you should probably have on the show by the way um uh John Johnston of of the author of Market Vibes um is known by his friends as Sir JJ he's not kned but um he has been in and around the commodity sector for 50 years if you can believe it was trading in the pits in the 70s and he writes a fantastic substack daily twice daily substack on the markets and he is bullish silver um has been bullish silver for the last five6 dollar um and writes pretty compellingly um why he's bullish silver we we don't own any um I just buy gold it's it's more a higher density of storage um you know in my safe but um I understand why people are Buller silver because there is this uh incremental potential demand and solar Ford and so on but sir JJ's bullish silver and if he's bullish silver then I would say that U given my respect that I have for him and the quality of his analysis that uh that he uh he's probably right so his substack is jj7 45.
substack docomomo of nuclear energy adoption around the world is accelerating uh you've written several pieces about this I'm wondering what the latest catalysts you're currently paying attention to are when it comes to nuclear and the uranium sector as well yeah we we recently wrote a piece um about a very important event that uh we think was even more important than the astonishing announcement that Microsoft would facilitate the reopening of three m Island the piece was titled um cometh the hour um the same week that that announcement transpired um it really important meeting happened on the sidelines of climate week where 14 of the biggest banks of the world got together and decided or proclaimed um at the urging of no less than John podesta the US climate are that nuclear energy be treated and financed with the same favorable sustainability profile as wind and solar and that's a sea change um unimaginable that that would have had occurred when we started writing doomberg just three and a half years ago and um there's been many many voices calling for for this that you can't really be serious about carbon emissions and be antinuclear at the same time um and so I think finally we're getting to where physics dictates we have to go and nuclear will be slow right where another piece we're working on about which facilities are likely to get financing built first based on time to completion and permitting and so on but it once you have a nuclear power plant unless you're the Germans and you're stupid um it's good for 80 years 100 years I mean these are forever Investments um if you properly maintain them and and most people do um you could run them basically Forever The Only Exception to this is the British um from a technology perspective but the Germans was just you know self- impalement um you can keep running these plants for a very very long time they're the ultimate set it and forget it trade the Chinese are cranking these reactors out at a pittance compared to what it cost to build them in the west and will establish a multi-decade economic Advantage for having done so and and the quicker we could get going on this the better and financing is a really important part of this and as we open that piece with one of our favorite Expressions which um I wish I could remember who taught it to me but it comes from the Venture Capital World which is um all the deals are undersubscribed except for the ones that are oversubscribed and financing uh be it startup financing or in this case project financing is nothing but a confidence game and if everybody else suddenly knows that everyone else is willing to back a deal in this case the big Banks and the government you'll find all manner of pension investing money who need to duration match and so on willing to front uh Capital with a an assured payback period um that matches their future liabilities and if everyone now is blessing nuclear at the same time then you'll go from Z to 100 overnight and that's what I suspect we'll see and that's why we decided that that event was worthy of a full piece well I also want to talk about natural gas and how it fits into the AI picture because you wrote about that in your latest piece where you said will natural gas be the bridging fuel that carries the AI boom along until a full nuclear Renaissance can be realized all the signs are there talk to us about your findings in regards to natural gas and Ai and do they point to a potentially bullish future for prices in a resource that you've mentioned before you think is in a supply glut yeah so you said the two most important words Supply glut uh we wrote a piece a few months ago that we quoted in this new one called generational Arbitrage um how the North American Natural glut must eventually clear um we miss this part of it which is why we came back to the topic um we felt back then that some combination of engine switching and so on um would necessarily mean that the oil to gas ratio would collapse again um when we first wrote about it the ratio of the price of oil in barrels divided by the price of natural gas in million BTUs was 45 and on an energy content basis it should really be six historically it had traded between sort of 10 and 20 because of the difficulties in handling natural gas um it's a bit more challenging of course because it is a gas um and what from the time we wrote that piece that ratio has indeed come down from 45 to 25 at the time that we wrote this latest one um you can't have the cleanest burning hydrocarbon being given away indefinitely um people will find use for it um if for no other reason that they must find use for it in order to keep oil production going in the perian for example because it's a co-product and the gas to oil ratios in the peran are very high the interesting thing about gas for AI is there's a few significant advantages one um very very cheap fuel um right now even at 275 per million btu natural gas Henry Hub Today front month that's 1516 a barrel oil um two clean burning three quick to bring online um and if you collocate data centers right next to the natural gas production you don't need to grid connect you can actually Envision closed systems the sort of PODS where natural gas goes in one end of the Pod and data comes out of the other and it's far easier to ship data around the world than it is to ship natural gas and so one of the things we speculated in the piece is that the major LG exporters of the world Malaysia Qatar would see an influx of investment and they're seeing it because why chill natural gas and put it on these expensive ships when you could just use it directly and circumvent all that hoop jumping that goes into um making LG the the globally traded fuel that it is um that doesn't mean that we will see less LG by the way it just means we'll see more natural gas produced in these countries because they have an abundance of it there's one thing that we know is the world has an enormous amount of natural gas you can spool up a natural gas turbine to create electricity rather quickly much quicker than a nuclear power reactor can be reopened let alone built from a standing start um far more cheaply and more safely um and we think will do it the one major constraint is how much do the microsofts and the Googles of the world care about carbon emissions because you're still burning a fossil fuel to run a computer or to cool a computer or to do both um but we suspect that if they won't do it others will and and we for example a great place to do this would be in Alberta and British Columbia where it's cold in the winter which helps with cooling requirements and you have this Supernatural gas field uh that is just waiting to be exploited um they could do it in Argentina they could do it in Russia do it in Saudi Arabia um and so we think the computers will go where the gas is and this is probably bullish for North American natural gas um another you know kick in the you knoww for the European economy because this will necessarily mean that l&g will probably get more expensive and that's how they're powering themselves these days but the US North America Global Energy gigap power swimming in natural gas it's the cheapest fuel on the board it's the quickest to bring to Market and I don't think concerns about carbon emissions will be enough to withstand all of the natural forces that point in that direction so that was the the piece uh we just wrote called Bridge burning um we will burn natural gas as a bridge to the time it takes us to build nuclear power and then when that new nuclear power comes on by the way we'll probably keep burning natural gas anyway because all primary energy sources are additive to the human endeavor but that's a that that was a call that we made um and and we think it's highly likely to to pan out we've also been writing recently about how AI could disrupt the tin market walk us through what you're seeing there tin obviously kind of an obscure commodity at least when it comes to the investment side of things um there's a community for it on Twitter I believe a tin X Community uh what are you seeing when it comes to Tin and its implications uh with the AI picture tin's a two-part story AI is but one part of it um tin reminds me of uranium when we first started writing about uranium you know $60 a pound ago um in that it has a small vocal community on Twitter it's an underappreciated but really important metal and for a very long time the things that that Community has been saying are both true and not reflected in the price and so one wonders When You Reach sort of a turning point um what makes the tin situation unique and what motivated us to write about it um was the fact that we have the largest mine fort in the world in what used to be known as Burma um and that mine has not been producing for more than a year um the country is undergoing civil unrest um ongoing Civil Wars there it's a really tragic story you know sandwiched between India and China this particular mine is in what's known as the the W state right next to the Chinese border and uh when the uh entity that controls um that state which by the way the US is sanctioning uh the United W State army or wwsa um last April they announced that the mine would be closed indefinitely because of safety concerns and permitting issues people assume that this would last a few months and that you know the global pin stocks would be able to make up for any shortages U but the mine is still closed and nobody quite Knows Why um if that mine reopens suddenly you can expect a downdraft in the price of tin but tin is one of the better producing or better returning medals on the board for 2024 um it's doing quite well up some 30% at the time that we wrote that piece and uh it's something to keep an eye on um so it's a two twofold story you have an artificial Supply Crunch and you have a potential increase in demand driven by AI because the primary use use of tin is uh in soldering applications which is driven by semiconductor demand and the demand for semiconductors is coming out of a mini bear Market um and and look set to finally catch up to some of the AI hype uh that surrounds the stock market today we've seen geopolitical risk in the form of an escalating conflict in the Middle East seemingly Drve the oil price higher at least that's what several people have been alluding to as the reason why WTI Crude prices shot up recently what are your thoughts there is there a connection do you think that a further escalation of that war could drive prices even higher uh so first of all that is clearly the reason why oil is spiking higher you could see when certain you know bold red headlines cross the wires on Bloomberg um the oil price spikes $3 um we're we're pondering publishing a piece on this we're we haven't decided whether we will but I'll give you sort of a preview of it we have a bit of a counterintuitive View and if we're wrong by the way and were wrong before this podcast publishes will be spectacularly wrong um but we would fade such concerns um for the following reason and again this is sort of classic example of a problem in the way we like to think of it that might be um contrary to Conventional wisdom we observed with everyone else on Twitter the Iranian attack on Israel on October 1st um with some surprise um we saw with our own eyes various you know uh amateur films of the event directly published it which is what makes Twitter great right when you have one of these events unfolding you see raw data sometimes the occasional signal uh with no censorship no Spin and we saw what everyone saw which is dozens of missiles striking Israeli territory and very little in the way of the much Ved Israeli air defense system knocking these missiles down um and even the Washington Post a few days later was forced to admit or concede to this reality that dozens of missiles had gotten through and struck a major Israeli Air Force base and a couple of missiles even struck quite near to the Mad headquarters apparently um this tells us a few things um it tells us that Iran has ballistic missile capability that perhaps the West has underestimated it tells us that perhaps the Israelis have overestimated the effectiveness of the air defense system um we assume in this piece that we're contemplating that Israel didn't fire the entirety of its repertoire that it still has several thousand missiles which is what the sort of Western analysts assume and have reported for years that their stock pilot is measured in thousands not hundreds and they shot 200 missiles against Israel in this one volley um and then the fourth assumption Beyond those three is that the Israeli government now understands this and this changes the strategic game theory rather significantly because Israel is vulnerable in several important ways first of all it's a very small country as we know it's roughly the size of New Jersey and has roughly the same population as New Jersey but its energy and its domestic water infrastructure are actually you know their electricity is produced predominantly in five power plants and it's desalinated water which accounts for 80% of the drinking water in Israel the developed water in Israel um is produced at five desalination plants and all these 10 facilities are ground everybody knows where they are and if Iran truly does have Precision guided ballistic missile technology that the Iron Dome and the other Israeli um air defense systems are incapable of knocking down uh as comprehensively as they have been able to do so in the past and then we think this exposes Israel to a significant vulnerability not unlike what the ukrainians have experienced with a direct targeted assault of their energy infrastructure to be perfectly clear Iran would be very foolish to do this because it would almost certainly trigger a nuclear response from Israel but at the same time Israel has to be aware that this is a real possibility um and so this sort of mutually assured destruction now changes I think the game a little bit and we would be surprised if Israel attacked Iranian oil infrastructure with this new development our assessment of the Contemporary reporting of the potentiality of this outcome does not give sufficient weight to the consequences of what transpired on the 1 of October this year and if we're right um and we could be wrong and as I said at the beginning of this answer perhaps even spectacularly so but if we are right then we would fade risk of escalation because we would assume that um both sides would realize that it's in neither side's interest to directly escalate in know war with each other that's probably a controversial view but at least we show our homework and and those are the sort of exatic foundations of how we arrived at it well it's fantastic to hear different views on a subject such as this instead of just people piling into oil thinking that it's going to the Moon because the war is going to escalate it's very important to view all of the factors at play and you always do that which is why I appreciate your work so let's talk about that next uh the doomberg substack uh give us some more info on the type of Articles you write obviously we've discussed a lot of uh topics today that were based on your articles and and where people can find it yeah I appreciate the opportunity and I really enjoyed this discussion Jesse and and always happy to come back on um I think what listeners probably heard today is that we strive to be analysts and not Advocates and so while we study energy markets thoroughly we're not cheering for them to go up or cheering for them to go down we're trying to do our best to understand the Dynamics at play um to the best of our abilities and to write honestly about our beliefs showing our homework and admitting when we're wrong um and I think that's um a different product some people like a day trading product some people like to have their biases confirmed that's not what we do um if we think oil is going to go up we'll explain why we think oil is going to go up and and again show our homework and if we think oil is going to go down or oil shouldn't be where it's priced we we'll explain and and then we're not afraid to Pivot based on either learning why we got something wrong or the market reality is changing and this is an example with this Israeli story that I just told when we saw those missiles striking Israel with the speed and quantity that they were that that was a game changer for us we had just assumed that you know Israel had uh Superior defensive capabilities in this regard and when you look at the true vulnerabilities of a small country like Israel with only 10 million people um and very few but very critical you know infrastructure needs and then you could see okay maybe this is different and maybe this The Superficial stuff we're reading in the New York times is not quite true um and so then you put it out and and we like to say that defending our pieces is one is just important as writing and editing them and and we are very active in our comment section as well which is closed to paying subscribers just to keep out the uh the trolls and the noise so doomberg dcom is where you can find everything um we write seven to eight articles a month we also have a pro tier where we do a deep dive presentation once a month on on all things energy and a few other topics these are put together by us and Del deled via webinar form um but the the annual subscription gets you all the Articles and the pro tier gets you the Articles and this monthly Doom Zoom as we call it um Jesse it's been great um again I always enjoy talking to you and looking forward to coming back anytime you'll have us thank you for joining us today as a reminder this episode is brought to you by Ark silver gold osmium for all your precious medals needs Head to argo. com contact owner Ian everard today at 30726 49441 or by email at Ian at argo.
