3x World Trading Champion REVEALS His Market Approach - Jan Smolen

The person you're about to watch is not only three times World Trading Champion but he was also a poker Prodigy and a chess master so things like strategy risk management and thinking in probabilities are amazingly hardwired into his brain and in all of this he's also one of my mentors who really opened my mind on how many ways there is to use macroeconomics fundamentals and sentiment in the markets this is the Second one of a series of podcasting which I'm interviewing world champion and highly experienced trading professionals to bring you their insights and hopefully give

you a different and valuable perspective on trading more of these podcasts are going to come out so if you don't want to miss out on them subscribe now and click the Bell to get notified when a new episode comes out now without further Ado enjoy this very insightful chat I had with Jan Smallen well welcome to the podcast great very nice to talk to you very nice to have you here uh it's it's probably one of the very first interviews that people are going to see you proper interview to Young smolen online so thank you

for giving us this privilege so I would like to start let's start from the beginning I guess and let's go how did you started trading and what was your you know your your path your you know how did you get to be uh the world Champion at last for three years in a row yeah it's actually a bit bit already hard for me to remember because it's so some long ago when I found out about all this world of trading I remember I read a book our spoker uhhuh I don't know if if you know

about it but it was basically basically about about trading about invest Investment Banking and this kind of stuff and also I had some University classes MH so I attended University 2002 2007 and I was Quickly uh I studied management and I quickly realized that the finance classes are Mo most interesting to me and particularly the classes which are related to Investment Banking and and all this kind of stuff so so I probably already that time decided that this is like this is something which I want to do because I was quite good in chess I

had quite mathematical background and uh and uh I also like the stuff like related to games and probabilities and Yes even when I was a child like I was spent a lot of time just sitting and and uh reading some kind of uh encyclopedia and like checking like the population of different countries and and and GDP and like this kind of crazy stuff for when you were how old I don't know 11 or something like that I was really like interested in this kind of stuff so so then like when I came to the university

just somehow came everything came together that this Is like something I want to do I ended up actually working for EasyJet in the in the airline sector actually with the with the airline prices right I remember that with the with the air prices analysis which is somewhat to some extent maybe there is something something similar to the like you know also have like the prices oflines go up and down and you have somehow like optimize it and stuff like that you also mentioned that you have like a PhD in Finance where did you get it

did you get it here in Slovakia or in London I stayed in London for less than two years and uh then I came back I actually started to work for the electricity company in Slovakia also with prices also how that how did that work like you were predicting Energy prices so so it's different with the airlines I'm not sure like we want to go that much into the detail we can talk about it for a long Time obviously but not sure how much interesting it is but basically with the air you're setting the prices with

electricity you are more like predicting the prices and which go then in the projects like some of the project where that we are thinking about building the the Nuclear Station and what are the prices going to be and like basically the prediction with all the with all the different projects and then the sensitivity analysis you know if Something changes how is it going to impact the prices and all this kind of stuff so it was a pretty interesting job but but uh uh basically then I managed to get the the contract with the company like

they were quite happy with my job and uh I managed to agree somehow with them that I'm not going to work there as an employee but I'm going to like provide my services as a as a company okay and uh at that time I started my PhD so it was basically after I think Four years maybe you're not just a Trader you're not just a trading Champion you're also a brilliant in chess and poker how did that fit into this into this journey into this process it was just a passion you always had yeah it's

like it's like not sure what to say yeah also during all this time like I was doing this think I was also also at some at some particular time points of of this journey I was Also thinking about becoming a chess player a professional chess player which is probably not the best idea because like not not enough money in the sector and also and Al basically you you're making enough money if you're are top 20 in the world which is quite a high like you if you're a football player you can be like thousands in

the world and you still like make so much Mone it's incredible in Cas you need to be top 20 otherwise it doesn't make too Much M yeah and poker and poker is also like poker poker was also very interesting thing for me but then like what is what is interesting in poker what can I say about poker is that it a bit resembles what I think is a little bit happening with the trading this years but with trading obviously everything is on the higher level but with poker it was like that that like I was

playing it like the kind of hobby player and still Still was managing to play with some even famous players and and achieving quite good results but then it get it it kind of got much more much more sophisticated everybody's like like putting started to put like this best place in the world stop playing like by the intuition by some head calculations and stuff like that but they really like like kind of s like made the the poker so much more sophisticated than it was before so Like I played poker like a game I really wasn't

wasn't ready to put like 10 hours a day studying poker it just seemed like really silly to me to like to to like really study every single detail like what should you do at every particular step every particular situation and the people were doing this like really they were like they were closing everything and just studied poker like 12 hours every day unbelievable St do everything else and Just conate all their time on so at that time and this happened I think 2010 2011 it was kind of kind of it was visible that everything is

totally changed basically you are not able to compete with these guys which like if you rely on you you think good intuition and this guy start in 12 12 hours a day no way you you have a chances against him so yeah of course so and that times I like just no this is this is not for me anymore I'm not going to do it and uh And uh okay with the with the with the if I see some comparison with the with with trading is not in the way that that obviously the like everybody

is much more sophisticated so with trading we already starting with this point where everybody is is already like all in in trading but it's getting on even even higher level higher level for sure higher level with all these alos and artificial intelligence and all kind of stuff where where like it feels to me That somebody sometimes even like putting like 10 hours a day is like Still Still you need to like get somehow even on a higher level anyway definitely but but yeah I'm more inclined to to like do it with trading and I was

when I was with poker so so the approach is also I think on probabilities and risk management I think in poker you must have those basics of how much are you betting on this hand how much probability you have on this so I think There was there's a good interesting you know some things are are very similar I think in the way you approach of course there's there's a lot of a lot of similar stuff but then there is a lot of different stuff so yeah poker is poker is much more simpler yeah so it

seems complicated and you know that there is a lot of study I understand but compared to trading is pretty simple yeah but once you know the rules it looks way simp so basically you you are almost Able as a human being to analyze every possible situation and know basically you don't even have to if you are really good I think this best players they they don't even like think what they need to do in the in certain situations they basically just know it yeah and there is also confirmed that there are players who like who

pick like 20 different screens and they they play and they basically kind of kind of winning on all of them because they just know what what What they do they they know basically okay this situation I do this the situation I do this but still you you were competitive in also in trading cuz at some point you joined also the World Cup trading championships and I think as much as the poker competition changed also the trading competition changed both in the market and in the Championships so how how do you started like trading with you

started trading with your own capital I guess and how Did you move to also you know having the the ambition to win the World Championships uh so I always traded in my old C on Capital I never never traded on some demo accounts or something like I I was so right with that that if I kind of who some money I want to like field it you know it always seem to me that if somebody is trading on the demo accounts and even if he's successful he's still not necessarily is going to able to transfer

it to the yeah to The to the to the real life uh yeah real real Capital real Capital so I always traded with my own capital and had some painful experiences in the beginning so actually that was also one of the motivation which why I decided that I need also the full-time job if I need to if I want to to do trading yeah because because actually one of one of not one of my certainly the most painful experience with trading came just after I started so how was it so I Started in I think

July 2015 was it and then I don't know if people remember but in August 2015 there was like the the largest crash yeah in the certainly certainly no no no no no just the indices uh maybe maybe like it was nothing compared to 1987 or stuff like that but like since I trade more full-time I I never seen anything like that still what happened to me basically one month after I started trading so it Was like Market done anything at all for the whole July and first time of August it was ranging so I remember

the S&P 500 was ranging in really 50 points 50 points range mhm for one and a half months mhm doing totally nothing it was somehow somewhere in the 2100 region it's going a little bit up and down so I you know like don't judge me too too harshly I was really a beginner I opened I opened I open some position on some like some small draw Down and then and then it went one day Thursday I think it was it went down like another 3% I was watch so I that is probably good opportunity to

little bit add little bit so I added little bit adding then it then it went down another like I don't know what 5 7% the other day yeah uh so I again eded little bit and then the Monday so then came the weekend and then came the and this Monday it was still still like in my Almost 10 years of trading I never saw anything like that it's just it just opened and it totally crashed like I don't know I don't know exact numbers like it's easy to check on the yeah on on the charts

but it's just totally crashed in minutes in minutes it totally crashed so you you had a really bad draw down in that and and my my account was zeroed out and it basically went into minus in minutes so wow so in I think 10 I had like i i s at least like from my Naive perspective that there is enough money on the account like to I cover at least losses for another another couple of days yeah and it just in minutes it went my my after the opening of so I think it went like

that even in the premarket session even it went a little bit into plus so S&P was a little bit even higher on the day then as we were closing to the to the US US Open it went like like really quickly down down down and then the markets open and it was Went like crazy crazy down like totally like I don't know how many percent but just not sure even what were EXA RS in circuit breaker then and and like yeah but I'm just basically remembering from my memory how it was what were you were

you traing cfds or Futures back then uh it was cfds cfds H cfds yeah yes so yeah there is also it was actually it was actually uh the thing also was that it was not even cfds it was kind of spread betting account and so so one thing Which is possible also there that probably this might kind of spread but think that they went even lower than the than the Futures went yeah which is quite possible yeah so so that maybe the added added some s to the injury and uh and yeah so so my

my account went to zero and ALS so they they actually they stopped me out when my account was so I had let's say 10,000 in my account it went to zero it not only to zero but to minus 3,000 so so I also ow ow owed them Another 3,000 so that's that was really really like almost like one month after I started trading experience something like that so was kind of kind of traumatic kind of I still like I still have nightmares remembering about about about this kind of stuff is still like is still still

go in my dream somehow that like my my my numbers goes to like minus and I can't do anything about this and kind can't stop it anything that is so Bad like luckily now we have negative balance protection in Brokers so you can find Brokers that don't go to negative or they have an insurance against it so I think also it changed in the at that time I didn't even think about this kind of I can imagine you probably didn't even know it was possible at that point yeah I didn't even imagine that the market

can do what it yeah of course I get it so from there how it it could go only better from there right yeah yeah That's that's a good thing so I I didn't like i s at that day that I'm not going to touch anything at all and basically also think about like how if I leave this minus 3,000 days or what are they going to do to me but then somehow I I don't know I what was what was the thing that made you click and you know started at that time I realized that

I need to start working full-time that like this is not this is not something I can do like so having an extra income Helped you to psychologically I I had already some kind of in income from this consulting stuff but I realize that I also need like really stable income to like somehow to be protected otherwise I'm not going to be able to to sustain these kind of things if it happens again or something uh and yeah so I started to work in the university and then somehow I after some times I after some time

I I come somehow recovered PID them B this 3,000 or something and and uh I mean recovered psychologically mhm and and financially hopefully also finan financially it was not that like I didn't lose oh I I had some some yeah some saving some savings and Reserve but still like I just calculated in my mind that if it continues like this not going to be like really sustainable yeah of course so so yeah so MH and how from that how did you find an edge how did you approach trading after That b experi so I started

to be you know how basically did you have any Mentor also or no no no I never never studied any particular books or something I just observed the market what it does like uh be okay in that time I didn't have too much experience yeah but but with time you're basically getting experience you basically start to learn how the markets operate and they basically not supposed to do what you They what you think they're supposed to do and all this kind of stuff and basically you learn yeah I also the only the only education kind

of I'm getting is uh from the twiter so following for you know a lot of people on Twitter who a lot of them are good Traders so basically you get some kind of ideas also there but basically it came from my my observation and kind of simple statistical analysis and and kind of that basically looking at the Markets and and finding finding where the opportunities might be mhm so about your approach which I think was very interesting cuz when uh you recorded our the master class for for our Italian students uh it was really mind

openening for me for so many different reasons because you know um I mostly studied from others you know there's a saying that I love from a quote from Richard wov where he said that people are studying what some other people said About the market not what the market has to say about itself which is was your approach and uh it was a very like I could see that I I didn't read those things somewhere else or like it was a very um very mind openening master class that you did and I applied some of the

concept with a really good Edge uh talking also about the um so about news trading that's that was that example was a was a mind opener for me because everybody used to say you don't trade News that's a rule of trading why you know if you see if you see you know so it was really it was really amazing and um about your approach to a new Trader who starting from scratch where where do you think he should go and find an edge which tools which types of analysis or what's your approach also to trading

it's hard for me to give advices to other people because like I have some some set of people people don't realize that Basically just copying somebody else is probably not the best idea because we all have some some strengthes and weaknesses and uh and unfortunately like I think some people's strengths and weaknesses are better better uh would be better like orientated to to maybe do something else than trading so maybe that's something import that's also something important to realize or Different style of trading also yeah yeah that's that's the other thing which I mean that

basically okay that's also important to realize but yes like if we are talking about trading like obviously there are many styles of trading and everybody needs to find their own way how to trade like basically to replicate some somebody else is problematic from two perspective first of all you are maybe not 100% able to do that because like you have different set of Capabilities Almost sure than somebody else and even like maybe maybe you pick somebody who is close to you like in that case maybe could be somehow possible but most people like are really

really different mhm so you need first of all it needs to be it needs to be also fun for you to do it m if if you do something which you not basically you maybe making money but you just don't feel like you are doing something which which is interesting to you and you are Spending your time well and learning something then I'm not sure it was worth it mhm uh well that being that being said what's your approach or how did you find an edge and then obviously the other thing is that uh that

if you just copy somebody a lot of things are changing on the market so even if you if you copy somebody who you think is really good and has really good credentials it's very likely that you will learn Something which maybe work before but not going to work anymore so so that's that's always a problem so so uh so you always need to be able to adjust on the market so basically need to be very very flexible I think and really like like listen to what Market is is telling you uh because Market is always

evolving Market is always always kind of uh you know you need to be one you need to learn the way how you can be one step ahead of the market so Market is Somewhere and you already need to be one step ahead when Market comes where you are you need to be again one step ahead so you know for example like long time ago maybe it was enough to to trade kind of supports and resistances and it worked for you and you could make money maybe not like now the market obviously will go up and

down up and down up and down until it's like stops you out enough time so that you're probably not going to make money In such a simple way yeah so so yeah so you need to learn how to stay one way ahead one step ahead of the market and it's really hard to do it's it's really it's really hard also depends on your style like there very different styles of trading I can you know uh as you said my style is probably kind of a bit different than than other people's style so it's hard for

me to to talk about the you know about the probably most of the people they trade in a different way so I I don't know too much about I can I can say only what what I do you know yeah of course I think we we can go deep into that so so hard for me to to give advices for for the other people so uh your approach to trading is based U I would say it revolves a lot around fundamentals and sentiment rather than purely price action or technical based even though there's a part

of that too uh so how how is your approach to markets which Markets do you trade and let's say let's talk a little bit about your trading style so yes so basically you characterized my my trading style right I think and uh and what I'm saying is I'm trying to stay one way one one step ahead and uh and uh is is evolving for example now the intr direction is is getting a little bit uh too crazy for me like maybe it suit somebody but it doesn't doesn't suit too much my style so I'm orientating

more on the swing Trading where I basically don't have to compete with crazy AOS on the on the intraday intraday level which like before I was doing more more intraday stuff now I'm starting to do more of the of the uh of this kind of longterm stuff and basically trying to to find uh the instances where the algo went really crazy and uh and basically use it To my advantage and to use it to my advantage I need to I need to look at it on the more long-term basis because like if I like somebody

else has different style maybe can they can predict what algo is going to do but it's not my style so I need to I need to uh being able to assess when the algo went too far too far and like provided really crazy prices and only then start to very very like very carefully starting my position Calculating that algo will probably get even much more more more crazy and that's that's what I want in that time in in this instance I'm going to basically I'm I'm building my position in a more longterm way so basically

so basically using this crazy AUST my Advent yeah some anomalies let's say that you see and particularly this is particularly particularly good on the wrong side so you need to be you need to be really careful even like obviously we Know that trading short side is Much More Much More Much more difficult than than trading on side but particularly in this environment where the alos go go really crazy like you know with this GameStop company like for example like everybody everybody knew that is like like I don't know 20 times over valued or something still

you were not able to to short it because a short squeeze of it can go it can go to it can go to 2,000 whatever like you don't know yeah Yeah of course so so you are not able to really do it that way on that well on the short side but you are you are able to do it really well on the long side and then there they Alo are a bit of the disadvantage that they have this zero this zero which they at least with the most instruments they're not able to break so

so they basically you you are covered basically on the downside and you can you can do M multiple so basically basically the the the good Idea in this in this uh environment is basically that you you do risk reward like idea to get like 300% for example risk reward yeah it's it's quite good and basically yeah yeah so that's like kind of one example obviously obviously we can talk about many others but yeah that's that's that's the one one example how how my Approach is evolving evolving in this in this environment so that's that's What

I mean by by basically you know using using what the market gives you yes yes of course and uh as you said like technicals can have um I would say uh a faster Edge Decay so the it's deteriorating through time because alos are kicking in more and more people are using the same Concepts the same zones and stuff do you think that macros has a like um less quick Edge Decay how do you how Did you see macro change in this year if they if they even changed and how do you use them in your

process so my my my trading was uh not only but from the large part maybe 30% from my trading was was that I was relying on some intraday patterns mhm that I was relying on that price there is high probability that in some particular situations price is going to do something yeah it was a out of my Trading on the on the really shortterm basis this is almost not totally but from the like at least 50 maybe more perc of it is gone it's basically this Al this C is crazy how go are clean it

it's taking away like one one such age after another they just taking it it's just just I don't know almost fascinating to see like how you had the Hedge there for like I don't know 5 10 years and now you don't have H there basically they just And you see you basically see that somebody Pro I don't know somebody maybe something looked into it and and probably saw what I saw that oh there is some edit here let's take it away yeah yeah so so so this is on the kind of intraday sculping basis but

but as I answered the previous question like if you maybe think about this from some more longer term perspective maybe you can get different type of HD mhm Alo maybe sometimes gets uh too too upsid it For its own sake yeah but you need to be really like much more much more precise much more careful and uh much more risk management orientated there if you want to use it to your advantage mhm and uh yeah as I'm saying probably building your position over over longer longer period of time build the position gradually so basically when

you see some totally crazy price from your perspective and and then obviously you need to be able to differentiate what Crazy price is because for example Nvidia on 950 it's it's not a crazy price um there is a large large growth and nobody knows what Nvidia like is going to be worse in two years it could like you can very well make a case is the like price of Nvidia is 10,000 just by a bit different growth to it and and it can be 10,000 so that's not what I mean I'm not going to short

Nvidia for sure yeah that's like many people say that this is Kind of this is the IR rational price that Nvidia is at 915 that's not what I mean you need to be able to differentiate what what crazy price is yeah so crazy price for me is that basically all the fundamentals are pointing to the different way yeah the there is no kind of excitement about the market there is like anything at all and then like the price of something is just going up just because the algo algo decided that this a good that needs

this Particular stuff for some reason and then and then I probably not didn't provide a good example now because that way you would need to short to basically short the market yeah which is not optimal so you basically want to basically something else you get a quite good AI company in this in this in this market you want to choose some some AI company which which probably has good fundamentals which probably will come with good products but for some reason Algo has decided that that this is not company we VI we wanting to we are

wanting to buy at this point and we are just going going to shortly for example this is not with the but recently there was something like that with the with the marathon miners which is Bitcoin minor and basically is you know it's a sector which is laughed it's sector which everybody is interested in it and it was just selling like crazy uhhuh it's a Probably good company as far as I know as far like as my go fun fundamentals are right and it's selling off white crazy in a sector which is like L sector yeah

and uh and basically it went I think recently from it's a Bitcoin miner Bitcoin went from 60 to I don't know 75,000 and this Bitcoin minor went from 34 to 18 in in a similar time yeah so then like okay you can structure a really good good trade there because like you are kind of kind of protected By zero yeah yeah and uh also this company owns a lot of Bitcoin so probably it's not going to like if it goes to 10 is kind of really crazy obviously Canen of course and in this particular case

I want it to happen basically so I basically only very carefully start to buy it here at 18 and I want to Alo get even more crazy mhm yes yes I get it if we get if we now maybe get some correction in equities or something correction maybe it will get To my price my my wanted price of 9 or 10 or something like that and then like mhm yes there you can structure a really good good trade because even if you are totally wrong and it goes bankrupt and it loses all the Bitcoin it

has and all the capabilities to mine like all the Bitcoin and it goes to zero okay but still your risk reward if it doesn't happen is just was just I don't know 5 to one or something of course so so unless some there is the there is the Troice yeah it shouldn't happen like us like WTI oil that it goes negative like doing Co it happens yeah so actually actually with the if if we are talking about the crazy stuff yeah yes that was czy you need you need no I mean I mean uh for

example you need you need to differentiate what to be able to differentiate like what most people think that is crazy is not it's not that crazy for example for example with the AI stocks it's not not that Crazy at all that the prices are quite High yeah with this oil for example no it's not that crazy as if you don't have the storage capacity that you get the the in the electricity sector you get the negative afterwards when it already happened it's easier to say course I I'm not saying that did you leave that process

did you trade that that yeah yeah I'm I I lost money actually during the that oil trade but I lost like a little bit of money I saw that maybe Around were you trying to buy it around 20 I saw that is it could be a bottom yeah but then when I saw like the kind of quick quick drop I caused it somewhere at 17 actually 16 basically I got early I I was was expecting it can go it can go crazy negative like negative did you because because I I'm I'm I was predicting electricity

prices electricity prices is the most common thing true story common most common thing like it goes negative so so it Happened already I mean I mean in my job and Consulting practices I was I was predicting electricity prices right and on the electricity Market it's very normal prices go negative it's it's just it's just the the part of business the price is going so so that's that's why that's why this wasn't like the kind of so much crazy thing for me that's kind of I kind of that's why I I wouldn't cause my my trade

at 17 if I knew that I was covered By zero it would it would be easy for me to go along there because like you know that it will it will come back so you know that there was a chance for it to go negative that's why that's why I close my trade when it like when I stopped out it it I seeing it's going down like crazy and also the like I kind of heard the fundamental news I closed it like really maybe maybe hours before it went negative uhhuh because like if I knew

if I knew that I'm covered by zero It would be the the like easiest trade on the planet to go long yeah did you along it after or did you trade anything yeah yeah yeah after afterwards there was also there was also another good trade there basically not not going long immediate contract but going long the the the Futures one year one year after so then that's where you are basically there there's no no real real chance there's no reason for it to to stay negative of course for the for the For the one year

because like in the in the commodity sector the low low prices cure cure low prices basically so the longer the longer the front the lower the front contract goes the better for the the better for the for the far away contract so if you so there was a really good trade to buy by the the more far away contract contct so this was one thing which was possible to trade there and the other way was obviously to buy producers because you can you can buy Stocks and there you also covered by zero true story not

going to go B so so it was it was yeah it was it was very good so basically basically yeah I I went long a little bit of of the front but uh stopped out pretty pretty quickly and uh and uh then went after the crash happened it was already good sign that the bottom is in I bought the producers and and the contract the far away contract nice nice and um another really um another thing that I started uh Implementing in my let's say trading analysis lately and then you confirmed is monetary policies and

central banks they are literally driving the [ __ ] markets like a joystick yes yes there's nothing else basically that the stocks are not interested in anything else yeah I bit little bit interested in AI stuff but much more interested in in what Treasury and and monetary policy does it's just it's just unbelievable how they how they basically they can they Can get whatever reaction they want if they want it to go up it to go up if they want it to go down also currencies I would say also currencies of course of course how

so how do you how do you implement them in in your strategy or you know also we talked a lot about inflation or you know unemployment data how do you integrate them in your process on a general level so so now the question is about the central banks or central banks the Question yes so I would say the question is um if you can give us some insights on how you use macro data on your trading process on a uh monetary policy level yeah so uh uh uh so OB obviously the central banks are important

and and the best way to best way when to go go when to start the trade is when they change direction mhm this happens I would say maybe once in two years where you just clearly see that you get the some fed meeting and Obviously the FED meeting is the most important one I'm actually starting to look about into some other other meetings maybe also to to like trade Euro and this kind of Japan Japanese CN and to look into this but by now I I didn't find I didn't put enough effort yet so maybe

I will find something there I'm not sure yet but usually yeah there much less impact it's not enough to trade so I'm not sure you'll see but but with the with the fed the best way the Best best trade which is there is when they change direction so everybody is in on one side of the ball because everybody now know that fed is basically committed for example to Rising Rate rates or to Ling RS they're on the one side of the boat and then the CH fed changes course and if they change the course they're

not going to change it again immediately like they will at least at least even if they're totally wrong they will at least like have some Kind of some kind of continuation that at least a couple of meeting they will they will like continue in the similar stance so then they like they're quite hopefully it's not going to change it's also the thing which might change but there is this kind of continuity for example I think with the Japanese bank it's not like that they're much more tricky like they say something and then they don't fall

through with it they just say to like somehow you know to a Bit like te the market and then and then they and then they do totally something else so it's so it's not it's not given it has to be like that but but fed is like is uh more careful with the market is uh kind of uh is valuing its uh uh it's all its own credibility of course it's it's like that with fed not so much with the with the Japanese Central Bank for example so so it's not given this like that but

they they are and and good thing about It is that when they do something you can basically they they set the course for financial markets for the long period of time so basically you have a a train following trade right here that basically markets will go in one way for example from this point on for a longer period of time it is not going to finish tomorrow is this trade is going to work so for example when the FED in December this last December they started to be quite doish so there was a clear clear

Change nobody was expecting it and there was there was no clear like clear clear reason for them to get doish y nobody was expecting it but they get they got doish so you had basically a lot of a lot of trades right there to short dollar buy gold uh maybe the best would be buy basically whatever yes buy basically whatever definitely yes yes so so crypto yeah everything everything of that's that's when actually even before That you got one signal from the treasury from Janet Yellen uh um there h uh it's a bit of more

complicated stuff but basically she decided to fund the the the budget through the shorter term maturities bonds compared to longer longer term maturities bonds um don't want to go too much into details but basically she she did kind of easing Already before that and then and then fed confirmed it by being doish and then we got a really good mix and after that everything like just shot up and did is so stop until this point so so that's how you basically trade the the the monetary policy and it's really good because as I'm saying it

goes basically one way for one time and then similar thing happened in January 2022 when fed first acknowledged that the inflation is real problem they totally transitory Transitory before and then in January 2002 they basically said probably even even even little bit before for probably already in the final meetings on 2021 there were like three meetings maybe two meetings where the realization gradually came mhm that the inflation is really Pro real problem opposite trade everything went down yeah for a long time yeah yeah all 2022 buy Dollar sell everything definitely and now now we're reversing

yeah yeah so it works for a Long time you know basically the AOS are not going to kill you there because it's too longterm like also because you just swing it for a long time you don't care what the short time but also I think like big Market participants uh when they take long-term position of course they take it through a long period of time to be able to fill their orders you know so I think also most of the best performing hedge funds in the world are using Global macros to to beat the Market

so I think that that's one of the that's one of the best way if someone aim is to you know do better than S&P I know do better than 8% per year I think Global macro is is is definitely one of the it's also really good you just can buy stuff and just keep it there you don't need to watch it you don't need to trade at all you just basically yes you just basically set and forget yeah it's going to stay there J Pavo said is is going to be Okay yeah there is a

little bit of a problem if China for example invades taian or something basically everything might go crap and stuff but there is very high probability that it's going to go your way if you position correctly after it nice so yeah I'm saying it's probably every two years these changes happen mhm and also when the the best trade ever was when they when they saved the markets after covid yeah they went they went all in that was that was the Best that wasone yeah yeah yeah everything went just totally crazy I I I wish I would

have known more about macro at that points and you know really took advantage of that because what usually maybe takes five to eight years to have a full economic Cycles happened in a matter of like one year two years it was crazy that was really unbelievable crazy crazy that was that was the best probably trading setup ever and also you won the championship at that time in That period correct like 2021 2022 yeah that was that was like I've won it also in 2019 so I I wouldn't necessarily been pointed to that particular point it's

true I won in 2020 and then yeah so one of them I won I won during that time but uh that was actually uh more the Forex one which also obviously it also applied to Forex but at that time the best risk reward you were getting in crypto which basically Yeah I I parked some of my money into crypto crypto was was easily the best because it was so much so much uh pressure down yeah and the r re there was just just totally crazy even 10 to1 was nothing yeah so you could don't get

anything like that anywhere else yeah also yeah the the oil produces were good but 5 to one in this period yeah of course it was nothing compared to that of course was the W mhm talking about the Championships uh first I would like To ask why did you decide to join actually my friend mentioned to me that this is the championship he's planning to win he didn't yeah he didn't even join it he actually he he became a crypto Trader so he didn't even like yeah he didn't even try at all mhm he he stopped

trading everything else just cryp rest in peace yes but uh but yeah but uh so I just okay that's a good idea like I was when I start started first okay is there Any chance I'm not going to Wi it like it's the clear thing but it wasn't so easy so I started in probably I don't know 2018 uhhuh yeah so I won actually pretty quickly but yeah yeah yeah but not not the first two I think first two three I like yeah at that time like trading seemed so easy to me it was UN

water just Just go theread with it so it wasn't that easy but yeah but still in 2019 I I managed to to win the the first One mhm so uh actually I was I was leading I was in a first place for a long time in a future section actually uhhuh maybe in the first or second I joined but didn't win it in the end mhm so yeah so so managed to win it after some time I'm I'm saying yeah in in 2018 the trading seemed seemed so easy to me it's just just so and

also it's it's a bit problematic for me now because I was used basically that I'm going to make money whatever I whatever I do I'm going To make money it's not like that anymore so so sometimes in this these days I'm I'm like learning that that markets are not that easy that compared to what I S 5 years ago mhm yeah so yeah yeah so there there lot of examples so so as you say I maybe I was trading in a bit different way and somehow the things I was doing like nobody else was was

trading that way and there were like really really crazy edges in in in things where yeah they gradually Gradually take it away but yeah still still still possible just need to need to as I'm saying stay one step ahead mhm how was your experience with the Championships and the the robins cup um like uh you're competing also today I think in the last Global uh the global cup how how did the championship evolved throughout the years if it evolved I don't think there is too much evolvement I think that basically the the performances of the

people who are There kind of similar sometimes there's somebody it depends also the market conditions so sometimes the market conditions are easier so somebody gets gets better better results but I don't see too much evolvement for me the evolvement is that that during the this period of time first of all it was easier for me to trade during that time but also but also uh I put much more emphasis on this on these championships then I'm putting now So now I'm trading it but I'm not I don't really I I wanted to win it I

want it already three times so so like if I win it four times or not I'm not really so much so much depending on that like I basically fulfilled my targets yeah and uh and now I have some other targets particularly like in the uh like maybe putting my my basically trading on the on the higher level in in a sense that basically trading larg sums of money also maybe man managing this kind of Stuff mhm yeah of course I think at some point that's the upgrade every every tra so I'm more I'm more like

interested in this kind of things things than to win in the championship of course of course and also yeah so the the the platforms they used and the Brokers they used I bit not the best ones I've experienced that as well so so it a bit a bit stressful for me to to use this platforms so yeah so I'm probably not going to participate anymore mhm is There anything you would improve about the championship how they currently are I just take it as it is you know obviously like the one thing I would certainly improve

I think like this this this like totally creppy platforms they use is is just totally unacceptable so this is like the I would improve the Brokers and the and the platforms and the and yeah this kind of stuff but uh yeah you probably don't like that is too Much ret orientated but that's the way they do it yeah so if you want to do something Prof professional so like you can do it but yeah that's that's the way it is so I don't really mind this kind of like I take it as it is I

just would like that at least like if uh if it worked as it should do which in some cases it doesn't doesn't yeah me too like if if we're talking also about spreads and commission or you know there was a Couple of things that I I saw also fabul is in the Championships right now and he's telling me especially in the Futures if you're trying to be a day trader or a scalper commissions make it [ __ ] impossible like he his strategy sometimes takes some break evens but every Break Even if you work with

micros with micro contracts it's it's it's a little bit hard to manage I me don't I don't want to to give bad publicity to the no it's not about bad I think some Some some positive criticisms I think some posit positive criticism can help them to build a better platform I wouldn't even mind so much about the charges it's more like it's more like the some some things like could work better okay yeah yeah I get it but also it can be you know a stress test of of your Edge you know in a way

because condition can be harder so it's harder to get a harder a bigger performance so could also be seen in a Positive way but anyway um I think the point of the Championships is mainly you know to have a showcase platform um but I guess I don't know risk management wise the approach is not the same as you would use in your personal uh your personal Capital how is your approach to risk management were you're pushing a little bit more with the risk and with the GU of course you are pushing but you know like

it's a different because if you put your All money into one account then obviously you're not going to push with all your money but if you if you have like your money in in many different accounts then then obviously with a little bit of Leverage then obviously you can you can push more in one account and be more conservative in your in your private account so yeah so basically it's not it's not a problem from the risk management perspective so obviously yes of course I pushed more yeah of Course that's how I mean of course

you you don't win by just being conservative or pointing to do 30% per year so yeah of course of course was there one or two most memorable trades in the Championships that you would like to walk us through or one trade I don't even like differentiate between championships or not championships I don't even particularly remember that this particular trade I did in the Championship and this particular trade I did or in general so in your in your trading uh journey I I don't try to you know to to make one particular and it's it's not

a good mentality or every time I think I think this is maybe important to mention that every time you kind of like want to I don't know on one side maybe okay so yeah because because I'm saying that that basically the way I would approach trading is that that you don't trade Like you are not so much involved in the markets for the for the long periods of time and then you see that now now you need to go all in so you go so you now you go and now you push so that's that's

that's one perspective but the other perspective is that basically if you are too much excited about something one trade about one trade if there is too much excitement then it's probably not going to work so so so so it's a bit contradictory I understand it but you Know there's not not much much between a very right mentality and very wrong they are very close to each other you know like love and hate is is close to each other like right and Drug mentality is very close to each other so you need to be really like

on the one hand unemotional on the other hand you need on the other hand you need to realize okay now is now is now is the the basically now is the chance to to make money now let's let's go for it now Let's get invol a little bit more yeah so so that that kind of stuff so I'm not sure I better remember my bet bet trades that's that's more that's more important for me to remember my bet trades then remember my I said memorable trade not necessarily in a positive way so I told you

about this one then then there were a couple of Trades where I was sure the market has to do something mhm and uh and that and went like more more than than was probably appropriate And uh and the market pushed against me and and uh and pushed against me in a way the the worst the worst trades are where you are basically right you are just not able to sustain the pressure of the market and and right timing maybe and and and you basically close the trade at the at the point where where it's is

turning down yeah so it was it was the trade for example it was not so much not so much important trade in any way but now in December I think the the Oil went up every single day it went up and from my perspective like for no apparent reason so so I was a bit a bit like confused because because I'm saying now is the the period of time where the alos basically and the the sentiment and all this kind of stuff are driving everything and obviously there is the saying that the markets can stay

rational longer than you stay solent and Course we understand of this kind of stuff yeah like the experienced Traders we know all this kind of stuff but I think like during the last two years this notion uh put is a bit like more irrational than you would expect five years ago yeah that five years ago that I that basically what irrational there limits there were some limits to irrationality now the irrationality There is like mayy basically the the five years ago you were started the you were you were finishing the trade this was your last

add up now you need to start this this this point you need only to like only to start at this point so yeah so in this sense it was a little bit memorable trade for me so the the oil was going up for no apparent reasons for me it seemed like the the oil is bearish when when was this the last December Right I think last December maybe November I don't know something like that like a couple of months ago so it went it went up uh I saw the the oil Market is is is

bearish over everybody was B buying oil like crazy that everybody was like Yeah so basically and every single day it was going up up up up up up and uh and yeah and I was averaging aage it down in avering up on the short side and uh and uh basically It managed to close me close me exactly at the turning point so that was that was yeah yeah and and at that at that particular point when it did this this basically this large last points of craziness I was like really Almost sure that that basically

that I'm right and the market is wrong but for the sake of the old times for the sake of for really for the sake of the old times I close the position because like I was used that That basically you know that's basically how how the experienced Traders teach you to trade and obviously like you know it from experience that when the when the price is going going against you and you don't know why then probably price is right and you are wrong yeah and I think it it's not that way anymore like I think

I think like really in the last two years I really like start to to see on the markets that usually when the price does something Crazy from my perspective no the price is not right it's just just buying it or selling it for the sake of buying or selling it like there is nothing else they just they just decided it like uhhuh so so you need to you need to have like if you want to trade against this is so here maybe I made a little bit of mistake that I traded it on the short

side and the short side on the short side you maybe you don't need to like to expose expose yourself in this way Because really like okay they they indeed they finished there on the 95 so they went from 80 to 95 which is not so so much but yeah really they could go to 110 120 I like really really it could happen like yes uh so that wouldn't be the craziest thing ever so on the short side it's it's not such a good trade but on the long side on the long side where it's a

really good where you see this kind of irrationality and you can go long and You can average down with the good risk management and and the zero covers you yeah they are really good opportunities on the market I think yes definitely um okay so we talked about irrationality and also a little bit of trading psychology here and there like how do you approach uh uh the the euphoric parts or your cognitive biases let's say uh a lot of Traders nowadays has a majority of problems sitting I think more in the Psychological part rather than in

the technical side of things um what's your what's your um you know relationship with psychology and trading was it ever a big problem for you yes like certainly that's the biggest biggest problem is that basically you need to somehow live in the world of greed and fair fear so basically why people lose money is not because they wouldn't be able to make some money almost everybody is is able to make some money on the market if they Just like really stay disciplined and and average down on the wrong side and start at the good point

is almost impossible to lose money yeah and then still like everybody lose money so why why is that because they're getting too greedy yeah and then and then they're getting to fur which is on the which is basically again like opposite but very close to each other it's very very very happens very quickly when you you get from the point where you greedy to the Point where you where you just fear fear like consumes you yeah so so yes so I gave you the example of a trade where where I I of mistake and and

if I if I went with better risk management into this oil trade I would make quite a lot of money there and because my risk management was bad I I lost money mhm so so that's the psychology yeah you need to uh particularly today yeah so that's what I'm saying that in 2018 these things MH kind of you could uh uh even even if you got at some point a little bit caress with your risk management you could still like uh manage to get it out it still it still worked out all right in most

cases not not in every but if you were smart about what you were doing obviously not not that not that every every stupid thing would work but if you were if you were smart in the trade Design only a bit little bit careless for example with risk management mhm in most cases it still worked all right yeah now no now you you really can't like is it's almost sure thing is going like if you if you are not like 100% precise with how you manage the trade you are going to get killed so so you

really like much even much more important at any time before is really like risk management stay away from your emotions don't structure your trades in A way that emotions will come into your wave because like the AUST for sure like maybe before there was like I don't know large chance they will use it against you but now they will use it for sure they will for sure put the price where where you will not be able to sustain to sustain the pressure if if you don't use the proper risk management and structure of the trade

and in this sense yeah I'm saying it's Also probably important don't like not using the short trades too much even if you are trading on the short side probably uh you need to to lower the size of the trade that's first thing and the other thing is that uh probably like structure the way on the trade in a way that you are going to the long side so if you want to short indices probably it's a bad idea but if you really need to is probably better to go long for example volatility or like Some

some opposite kind of stuff here this this kind of inverse inverse indices so just for sake of your of of protecting your your so the best way to protect your your psychological heal is like not short almost almost anything in this environment where really like you can't put a a limit where where where yeah of course where it could go obviously if you are just trading you know the kind of price action and and you basically trade on the on the basis That you try to predict what the algo will do and you put the

tight stop losses and this kind of stuff obvious you can short but I'm talking more about the more long-term fundamental approach and this kind of stuff where which I do and very is much much harder to trade on the short side than than on the wer so even if you need really need to to short something for example better use use inverse yeah you protected by by zero anyway basically most of the trades are Possible to structure in a way that that you are still getting basically wrong I'm not sure yeah so in a pie

of 100% how much percentage would you attribute if 100 is this you know success of a Trader how much is psychology in this 100% I'm not sure what what we would need to Define which part of the what exactly is psychology like is is is proper proper risk management psychology is related to psychology because because like if you Are too greedy for example you are not going to trade with the proper risk management and then is it psychology or not I don't know is it proper R management like could do yeah the point is uh

let's say that PSY when psychology inter because risk management is technical entry is technical trading is technical by itself by definition so by psychology I mean when the choices you're making are not based on your rules but are based on how your gut Feeling you know but at the same if if if you trade in a totally technical way then there is no room for emotions so then you are basically covered like if you do everything everything you said based on the technical some kind of analysis and Technical technical kind of things like then then

you don't need to think I think about emotion because you just calculate everything and that's what you do I think the the thing is maybe you deviate from your plan or from Your from your technical side because of for me it's a bit different because like I spot about the I spot some kind of irregularities on the market and I try to use them and and basically there is there is no there is little technicality for example in in where I put the stop us I have to decide somewhere where I put it but I'm

not putting it on some some technical calculation I just need to basically so very very hard for me very Hard for me to if I if I believe for example that something is something like you'll do something where where to put the stop l so cuz this is another topic I would like to discuss because it's really interesting and there's so many different views because there's much mechanical and technical traders and then you know there is let's say more intuition also can play a role or you know there's some things which you can't quantify every

time you trade you know Or it's hard to put them in an algorithm let's say so so I'm I'm certainly less technical than most people trading certainly maybe maybe even than almost I don't know than the large lar large percentage for sure so for me is the emotions and this psychology is more important than for the other people so who is people who are more Technical and calculate everything just somehow based on some calculation or some some programming then they don't need to deal With emotions but I need to yeah I need to and and

for me is yeah the basically I'm saying as as uh with the with time progressing is more important more and more important for me to to to keep the correct risk management yes of course yeah I would say that for people who are not let's say are mentally strong enough to trust their bias and to respect risk management some more technical approach would fit uh I I wouldn't say that Having a very discretional approach like yours can can work like I think you're one of a kind on some point like you're very how can I

say uh like you can trust your intuition in a way so subjectivity and objectivity I agree with you that's why also when you asking me to give advices for other people it's hard for me to do because I'm not sure this this approach would work for they need to find their own way I'm not sure This my my Approach would work for for for most of the people because like really I'm yeah I'm I'm observing things on the market and which I think would it's hard to replicate sometimes and uh and uh yeah like for

for most of the people some other approach would be probably probably better yeah yeah of course that that's that's really interesting subjectivity in because you know most of most of the industry or most of the books or most of the people Are here saying that you should be 100% objective you should be able to quantify those rules you you should be you know tending towards the quantitative approach as much as as much as you can because that avoids uh avoids you being interfered you're trading to be interfered by psychology and it is true I think

for most people but it's not the only approach for sure yes yes and uh and you know like they say in the markets like When everybody is on the one side of the bat and maybe the opportunities there are some opportunities on the other side so you're a contrarian Trader also as well I I guess not so much so much when example when I said for you for example to to go long when when when when J pav goes it's the easiest tra on the planet which everybody everybody knows this so there not contrarian yeah

yeah yeah I guess in I I maybe a contrarian doesn't Define what I meant as as I mean more You're watching sentiment and crowd psychology or Market psychology a lot right yeah but many times you want to go with the crowd yeah of course definitely definitely to go against or to go in favor definitely but but to decide which one is better actually actually I'm saying going with the crowd are easier easier trade than definitely sometimes it's you just need you just need to find the point where you go with the crowd yeah when you

go go with the crowd in The end of the cycle that's the problem you go with the crowd in the beginning of the cycle when the crowd only only beginning to to put their money into something this best best tra on the planet that's just need to to find the beginning of the of the of the kind of change change of the sentiment where everybody will go go this way yes so did you like what are your reference points for sentiment uh well there are many like One of them is Twitter when like so you

see basically what what people are shouting there when you know laser eyes on Twitter and stuff like that I don't know if you if you you about it like everybody everybody put laser eyes in a site that like we are owing on crypto obviously turned immediately so there also this kind of sentiments then you have these Cod reports many many people use this this Cod data and then you have some sentiment indicators so yeah there Like like really many of them so uh from some some sides you can see what RTO is doing yeah uh

but basically there's it's not a question what the sentiment is yeah when Jon pav was was Rising rates like crazy like what what would you expect the sentiment to be yeah you don't you don't really need to to check it out too much obviously everybody was buying doors and and uh was selling stuff and like yeah Also some some kind of this indicators like how how what's percentage of people are bearish and what percentage of people are bullish actually also the this this sentiment on the bearish side is much much better on the bullish side

because bulls have advantage over the Bears so so the bullish sentiment can stay for long periods of time but the when the when the period when the sentiment gets really bearish then uh probably like it's Easier to to find these bottoms yeah compared to Tops mhm with the sentiment in most cases you don't need even to check like it's obvious what what do you think the sentiment is with the stocks right now like you do need to check of course you just check you just take the price yeah of course you need to check so

in most cases like obviously I check like I can check code data I check what the what the Twitter people are saying in most cases is not even needed too Much yeah yeah price can tell you already kind of yeah yeah if you went back let's say if if now you could look back to yourself let's say 10 years ago at the beginning of your trading career what would you say what was what would be three things three tips you would give to yourself to make the road easier well certainly like uh uh really to

grasp the importance of risk management Because like in some cases like there were some painful traits for sure where the real the only only mistake was improper risk management and that's that's basically a bit related to the fact that that I saw that trading is really easy at particular times and obviously it's not that easy or at least not that easy anymore so so that's certainly certainly one most important thing mhm uh Uh I'm not even sure there is something else mhm I think I did more everything everything in the right way this was the

only only thing which cost me caus me some some pain mhm where obviously I was wrong some on some of my trades but it's fine it's not some of the problem the approach is the approach is is all right yeah I was I was like the only the only thing I I think was a problem for me a little bit that uh that uh I got a little bit Spoiled by the market uh which everything was working for a longer period of time and then 2022 was the year where where which was a bit problematic

for me so it wasn't it wasn't from the perspective that that uh before was going up and then the things were going starting to go down actually I was expecting that but I was even talking in some presentations about about that the things are probably going to change soon yes and everything is Going to down but but the way the way the trending conditions changed like got me a bit by surprise so so with the lower liquidity on the market uh the trading actually I'm not sure what what the reasoning was maybe maybe it was

also like this this algo stuff and and many different things but but like yeah in 2022 trading trading changed a bit compared to to what it was before so sometimes uh when when what what I was Able to rely on some kind of some kind of price action intraday price action before I think the 20 2022 was a change where where this real reability like changed it was much hard after it to to rely on something like sometimes really like price on the short-term basis was doing really like crazy stuff I wasn't I wasn't prepared

so like really like somebody started to buy euro when there was like totally no Reason whatsoever I didn't see like any reason whatsoever for for anybody to buy euro and I was quite good in these things like this word for me for me for a really long time so it's it's not like the beginners kind of stuff that people think that okay something should happen and and it doesn't happen and then there no it worked for me for a long time so it was really like large change there that some kind of really fundamental change

of how how things worked on the Market so mhm so so yeah so so the I I needed to to to readjust but it's that's also normal the the markets evolve you need to be to be ready to be ready you think they're to evolve your your strategy and your methods and what you use it's it's also like nothing too strange about it so so that's that's probably probably the only thing I would really like emphasize is to to be to be really stricter with with risk management where I made a couple of Couple of

mistakes due to yeah due to due to this but other other than that I think I be fine nice do you think that in the next years's you know you talk about algorithms and artificial intelligence do you think that it's going to be more and more of a problem what's your what's your your view on that again it's hard for me to talk for for the other people because like I think what I what I see on Twitter for example also that like people people try To predict not not what uh uh basically they try

to predict what Alo is going to do yeah maybe for them is it's great great I don't know I think maybe the algo is going to get more sophisticated and maybe it's going to get harder to predict for them but uh you that's that's the different kind of story I don't know I can't I can't talk for them so I can talk only for myself and and uh I'm saying that basically you need to adjust you need to to use this these Things which are happening to your advantage which is I think is probably possible

to do still possible yeah still like you know to to like raise the flag of humanity against against the crazy stupid sophisticated machines still like still still we can do it amazing um do you think I'm going to go with some question which are going to be I guess quicker to answer but I don't know we'll see um do you think that Banks conspire against retails and their Stop losses I think that's this question is totally wrong answer every every Market participant just does what is what it what is to their advantage so so they

they trade the way the way is advantages for them and like if you call it Market manipulation is only because like they have more money like so you can't move the price they're probably going to move the price because they they're larger than you are and they're trading to their advantage like so like What what do you mean what do you mean even by M manipulation you you you mean that by the the fact that they putting in the market or that they going to move the price that's the that's the point of the market

of course how do you think that they are going to do something stupid of course which they know that is stupid yeah that's basically going to do something stupid on purpose no they just put the market order there to to to make The largest benefit possible for them yeah that's what they do yes it's going to move the price and probably probably it can affect your stop losses yes yeah your stop losses can can can end up in in some you know that's that's what you do when you trade the market you trade against other

Market participants that's almost not not in every sense but in in some sense it's a zero point zero suum game yeah with derivatives for sure yeah no not in every sense but in in some Sense it's a zero zero SU game so they they're trading against you so mean like they they Von against you and you call it Market manipulation like of course they they don't want to lose they want to win against you they they they are probably better than you so yeah of course um do you think there is a Holy Grail in

trading there is one strategy that always works or there's you know perfect that was pretty easy to answer do you think that market moves Always in the same way no oh I don't even understand what you mean it's it's very big it's very open question you know but obviously I I I think I explained you in this podcast in quite in detail definitely definitely how um for a person that starts from zero how much money do they need to make a living out of trading provided they have a nice Edge that's a hard one everybody

has different different needs and if you if You are right to to live in your mother's basement for like 5 years until you grow your account I don't know maybe thousand is enough like yeah mhm okay obviously yeah it's better to start with the AR C mhm so realistically if one wanted to live only out of trading has its own house expenses paid how much would be the there a lot of examples of the people who put who put some thousand dollars into some Dr coins and they they make like 10 Millions for I understand

we are not talking about this this particular cases but yeah what do you think it's a good it depends you know what do you mean what do you mean by good Edge for example in crypto you can have higher Edge than than you have in the in the traditional market so like doing the boom Market in crypto you can make maybe living of out of 1,000 EUR mhm I just saying it's it's very different yeah then we can like Obviously I don't know I would say for most people I the chances are of course for

most people the chances are they're going to lose most of their money for sure but um I think it's an interesting interesting question like it it's so variable there's so many variables in this uh so this question are very open because of this just to to inspire some discussion about it but yes I think for most people that starts day trading in Let's say the traditional assets like Forex or um I don't know stocks uh or cfds and futures um I think if we say as a parameter that a good yearly return is I don't

know 30% or 60% or 20% you know it's it's it's hard to put a goal also in in how much money you're going to make I understand how much difference there is between 60% and 30% that's totally totally totally different double completely yeah no but it's it's like It's double in two years but but in 10 years just calculate was the differences yeah of course how much you're going to make if you make 60% and how much if you make 30% if if we do for example 100% And 20% it's going to be just totally

like if you do 100% a year in in 10 years you you do you do thousand thousand times not th% but thousand times yes thousand times your portfolio yeah that's enough yeah if if you start with, you have Million yeah of course of course that's not so bad if you do 20% how much you're going to make in in 10 years not so much maybe three times I don't know yeah how much is it with compound interest is a bit more four five times but whatever it's not going to be that great so so we

are talking we are talking that in one case you make million and in the other case you make make 5,000 with with a nice Edge as you call it yes so Nice let me check real quick and then we don't even talk about your needs and how much you spend and all this kind of stuff yeah of course of course that's that's that's what that's what I mean by making a living you know making a living if we add that that this guy who made million lived in his mother's basement and these guys who makes

20% needs a lot of money to live in so he spends much more than he makes from this 20% and the difference is even much High yeah yeah Have to say okay if this is a like bit of a like joke questions like very open questions if there was one tool you could pick on your trading what would it be to trade only with one tool monetary policy monetary policies and just put a trade there when the monetary policy changes and look work in half a year at least what happened to your portfolio mhm nice

and if there was one Financial int Instrument to choose from which one would it be Depends for what probably Crypt probably C right but then I'm not sure it's going to last I think probably we are in the last last kind of cycle where we get this crazy crazy stuff of movement and then then I think either it normalizes so Works more similar to other markets or just with technology because it's just kind of technology and just I think there is high chance it Becomes obsolet so it gets solved or something like I'm not so

much of a technical guy to be able to predict it but just just you know talking from experience like most of the Technologies we we were able to create become obsolete after some time I think it's going to happen with Bitcoin as well yeah maybe there's some other cryptos come maybe more sophisticated cryptos but then it's going to kill the present cryptos anyway so I personally for Myself would be very very careful with storing your v in Bitcoin thinking that that is necessarily going to be a future of the vote maybe but I'd be surprised

if it is MHM nice okay I think it was a very nice talk I think we we we provided a lot of really nice insights so thank you very much for uh for your time and being here with us it was very nice to talk to you thank you we're good