hello everybody Welcome to bitcoin. crypto you can find me on Twitter X forest toal and in today's video I'm going to talk about the man who predicted 84k Bitcoin yesterday and he predicted it 129 days beforehand he predicted it in November with this cryptic poem that he posted on Twitter and he acted upon it he knew that uh or well he predicted that Bitcoin was only going to be 84,000 and he uh it was counter to what a lot of bitcoiners thought bit a lot of bitcoiners thought okay this is the rally we're going to begin the rally we're going to see much higher prices and uh Josh Mandel is who I'm talking about he didn't think so so he was actually selling in the money call options on micro strategy which is a very risky play because you can see those those shares called away uh if those expire in the money but he was confident that Bitcoin was actually going to go down to 84,000 and uh when you sell in the money call options you earn a lot of Premium on those so he was able to turn I've seen some estimates he was able to turn around $2 million of strategy into $20 million of strategy uh through call options through selling covered calls through going short going long and all of that we're going to go into exactly what he predicted exactly what happened and um some more information about who Josh Mandel is so Peter dwan actually did a lot of the work here for me he he posted this thread on who Josh Mandel is first I want to cover what actually happened so this is uh Josh man's um uh tweet here that predicted exactly on Pi Day which is uh 3:14 2025 he predicted 84k uh Bitcoin and what's very interesting is I have a very similar screenshot of this so he said at the close of Bitcoin Bitcoin trades 247 so the close or when the new daily candles begin to get formed is at uh 8:00 P. M Eastern Standard Time so 5:00 p.
m. my time so I was watching the chart seeing if this was going to happen and I got a very similar one uh it depends on the trading Pairs and the exchanges and the amount of liquidity you're going to see a little bit different here and there some people were getting just under 84,000 some people got 84,000 exactly I think mine was $84,000 38 on exact close so incredibly accurate and predictions like this they become infinitely more uh or or less um likely the more you predict the exact date and the exact dollar amount right so he said 84,000 he was going with 84,000 exactly and to be so close to such a specific dollar amount at a specific time becomes incredibly unlikely what we can see here actually is Jeff Walton actually uh posted this he said Josh Mandel was within 0. 27% of the actual close 129 days out this seems as hard as guessing a seed phrase that isn't accurate at all uh and cck M actually had to come in here and clarify that not to belittle the prediction but guessing a seed phrase would be so many hundreds of orders of magnitude less likely I saw another tweet I can't remember who posted it so and and I didn't uh bookmark it but what's interesting about this is there have been people in the past that have predicted really similar types of events not maybe to this exact um accuracy uh but one of them being Plan B with the stock to flow ratio so he was right on two different uh predictions and then wrong on the third so what's very interesting about that is people find that when somebody's right about a prediction that they're going to believe uh the likelihood of their next prediction even more so if somebody's right twice it's going to create a lot of certainty for a lot of people to think that the third one is going to be correct so what that means is often times position sizes uh according to that bet is going to go up which makes uh a lot more risk right so what Jeff said here really is that this is extremely unlikely this this prediction is just you know so wild like we haven't really seen something like this before such an accurate prediction and I think it's it's to be taken for what it is and the within this tweet that I'm going to read out there's another prediction so do we take the other prediction the next prediction of Josh Mandel uh more seriously because he was right about this first one I think we should be very cautious about that because we could have some false confidence that this guy is from the future that he knows these things are certain to happen yes he was correct about this yes he doubled down on it yes he he bet his own money on this prediction but will he do it on the next one and should we do it on the next one I I'm not so sure so let's read out this tweet it's a poem so we kind of have to decipher it which is uh a little bit interesting but uh this is what he said and he posted this on November 5th 2024 so he said I hope that I have established a little bit of credibility with a few of you so that this will help this time is different the fourth turning is upon us Thursday 117 116 2025 314 2025 when 84 becomes the base Bitcoin calls will melt their face this is how you get ahead bu ibit calls in size instead 10 to one you'll ride it up the stock it Soares into the skies then sell the call and exercise see the path of Pistol Pete try a slug and then repeat look every day at close and lows when 84 is on the dock the car will launch a real hole shot feel the G feel the G's hear the Roar the coin won't stop 360 more a trio of fours times a grand that's the top the BTC Fades this is how a cowboy trades a nation state down by the sea I think it's called I think I'd call it empathy no room for hate nor jealousy Essentials they would be on me work if you want but just for fun think in the shade play in the sun okay so this is wild and he reiterated another time he actually uh called out muu Hodel and said um the exact uh you know not in this poem way but he said um let's make a bet I call Pi Day 84k on close tell me your price prediction and uh we'll we'll bet something on it so that's another tweet he has but uh what's interesting here is he said said when 84 is on the dot the car will launch feel the G's hear the Roar the coin won't stop 360 more so my um interpretation of this is 84 becomes a launching pad for the next 360 days and then the he's predicting a top here a trio of fours times a grand so 444 time 1,000 is 444,000 ,000 he's calling that the top and the BTC Fades after that and so he's calling a top basically 3 359 days now as it's the day after uh the prediction was uh prophesized and uh he's calling the top 444,000 which is a lot higher than a lot of people think that this top is going to be and he's saying that this bull run is going to last my understanding of this is 360 days I mean he could make he could be referencing the coin won't stop 360 more maybe 360 as like going around in a circle you know uh did a full 360 um not sure I think it's a prediction of the days again that's that's what's very cryptic and weird about this is that it's posted in this rhyming poem scheme and it's not maybe that's to like hide uh a little bit of or not to put like oh I didn't say this I said this kind of thing I'm not sure but what I might understanding of it is is that he's calling for a top in 360 days so roughly a year from now um of 444,000 so he also makes a call on how to play this right so this is very interesting so he says buy ibit which is black rocks ETF of Bitcoin uh spot Bitcoin calls in size so instead of buying spot Bitcoin yourself or you know cold storage or anything like that he's saying you buy calls now he doesn't say what duration what what uh um what out of the money in the money he doesn't say anything like that but he says um 10 to one you'll ride it up his idea here is to buy ibit calls um so that's leverage on uh Bitcoin with with an option contract and he's buying ibit because it's the most liquid spot Bitcoin ETF out there for the options market and he's saying buy it in size so this is what he I guess is going to do I I'm not sure I mean again this is posted in November so has his thesis changed at all I don't know copy trading is really really dangerous right and again he was right on one prediction will he be right on the other calls are inherently more risky than to buy actual Bitcoin um there's additional risk you you take on buying I bit as they have custodial risk as well um calls you if you don't if you don't pick a uh an exit an exit will be picked for you which is the expiry date and if they're out of the money they expire worthless so inherently more risk there as well uh Josh man has completely done all sorts of risky trades like I said he turned 2 million into 20 million uh selling in the money micro strategy covered calls so again that's a very risky play um not the most risky play you could do right because the the only like the worst thing that could happen is you miss out on potential upside you you're still selling um you're still collecting premium uh all that right so it's not the most risky I would say this is a much riskier uh position because he's predicting that the Bull Run is going to go and it's going to go really high so if you these calls right and if they were mispriced and if Bitcoin does perform like Josh man says and you have these far outof the- money uh long-dated uh Bitcoin ETF calls you're going to make a ton of money from that you would make a obscene amount of money from that so maybe there's a part of your portfolio that you are a little more risky with uh I you know call options you you got to think of them as a lottery ticket you have to think of them as a gamble because often times the the price is going to go against you in the time frame that you've bought this uh call for and the call is going to expire worthless or you're going to sell it back at a at a huge discount so really from there you you can see that this guy's already legendary for his call he's he's called something uh amazingly well he'll be written into the history of Bitcoin that's for sure but uh who is he let's get a little deeper into this flannel wearing uh fellow here so he called uh you know Bitcoin was at 74,000 when he called this so to say it would go up um what is that maybe 7 8% or something like that it's not totally out of uh out of the realm of possibility you know it's it's within that range so it's a fair call to make um to be exactly at you know so close to that call though was was really well done so Peter is done some of the research here and he says who is Josh Mandel Josh is a retired Wall Street Trader with some of the most impressive credentials per his Twitter bio he worked at Solomon Brothers during its Heyday of 1990 to 98 most recently he was a Trader at kton Associates uh 12 billion asset under management hedge fund with headquarters in New York Singapore Monaco and Dubai why should you trust his Bitcoin judgment as the saying in Bitcoin goes don't trust verify that said Josh man has been trading Bitcoin and strategy in public for the last year you can see all of his trade histories he originally seated his portfolio with $2.
1 million approximately one year ago and as of March 7 2025 it has ballooned to $22 million you know this is me this is me reading it too so I'm kind of learning this with you I thought he made uh the 2 million into 20 million uh in the last 129 days it's been a year that it that it he's done that which is unbelievable I mean unbelievable gains like what is that like a th% uh insane so this is some of his uh public uh facing portfolio that he's done so he's got these really um uh long calls uh that exp I mean he's got $3.
