the toppling of President Bashar al-assad was met with scenes of euphoric celebration in the streets of Damascus and cities across Syria but with the transitional government now in place the country's future hangs in the balance this week on UPF front we unpack what this moment means for Syria and the region after five Decades of the al-assad family rule in a 13-year Civil War Syria is now free of one of the world world's most brutal dictatorships in under two weeks a coalition of armed forces LED Byam also known as HTS marched through Aleppo Hammer Holmes and
Damascus and oued president Bashar al- Assad who fled to Russia so what will Syria's future look like joining me now to discuss this is bassm Hadad founding director of the Middle East studies program at George Mason University hel RAR former Arabic language spokesperson for the US state department Mustafa EOL Turkish journalist author and Senior fellow at the KO Institute and from Moscow Alexi klebnikov consultant and Middle East expert at the Russian International Affairs Council thank you all for joining me uh BM I'm going to start with you uh we've seen incredible images coming out of
Syria uh we've seen seen things like the toppled uh statue of ha assid uh we've seen thousands of detainees released from prisons uh what does this moment mean for the Syrian people you know we cannot underestimate how this moment moment is uh literally uh momentous in so many ways the it's the end of an era of uh literally brutal dictatorship there's no mincing of words and those who would like to see other aspects and dimensions size of this can well do that but not uh in a way that actually diminishes the repression that syrians have
faced for the past uh 54 years in some eras more than others and it is beyond the words relief uh that we should use to describe what's going on and I have friends uh I have family in Syria but I also have friends who have been actually imprisoned in solit solitary confinement for as little as writing an article and these people mind you are not necessarily either islamists or supportive of a liberal American political order they're actually Pro resistance they're actually uh against Imperial designs and actions in the region and yet if they actually uh
overstep an Iota they could actually be uh reprimanded imp Pleasant or worse so we're talking about an unprincipled dictatorship in so many ways which is now symbolized by the manner in which the president simply left without a word to his people even those who actually supported him that's interesting H I hear people all over the world echoing uh what bessam has said right but then there were people who were saying it's too you know that's not right you know this is American imperialism uh putting his thumb on the scale this is Israel weighing in you
know the new uh you know leadership is going to be worse there were people who were saying that this is something other than a moment of of celebration for the Syrian people in light of what BM has said should we be holding space for another idea or another thought at the same time that's a very good question and I want to Echo Bam's words that this is really a time to give syrians space to celebrate after such brutal years not just one not I mean decades really but to your point we are able to have
two truths at the same time and that's the reality of the situation obviously we've seen how the changes were basically overnight right I mean we we woke up to the news and it was so quick and the syrians went out in the streets and are pro are celebrating after years of trying to gain some type of freedom and legitimacy in their own country and as adding to bassam's point it wasn't merely political repression it was day-to-day life that was so difficult for the average Syrian not able to have sufficient electricity struggling for food struggling for
gas the basics of everyday life became untenable for syrians in addition to obvious political repression political prisoners families being ripped apart at the same time the second truth that lays right next to this first truth is that countries like the United States states countries like Israel have been wanting to topple Ed for years right uh and this is very much known and those in the Anti-Imperialist Camp see this as a res as a result of all of those years of interference but to bassam's point considering everything that the syrians have gone through we need to
give them space to be able to celebrate this moment with a clear mind as to the other forces that are at play and support the Syrian people in this transition and this revolutionary time in their country Mustafa what do you make of this I share the joy and happiness of the Syrian people uh they just got rid of a very brutal sadistically cruel regime and if if anybody has not seen until this today I mean what's coming out of the Sadaya prison and other torture chambers of this regime should teach us I mean I I'm
glad that the Syrian Revolution succeeded toppling one of the world most cruel dictatorships I mean we should be happy about that in itself regarding the GE geopolitics of this it's true that imperialism colonialism has ravaged this region harmed the peoples of the Middle East and other parts of the world a lot but also we should see that regimes that call themselves Anti-Imperialist anti- Colonial can be very brutal in their own ways I think every regime should be measured first of first and foremost about by looking at how they treat their own people and if they
treat their own people by you know putting them in Dungeons and torturing because they wrote a critical tweet or wrote an article you know it's I think that's evil and and whatever it stands on our geost strategic understandings that regime has no legitimacy right causes should be pursued by right means and if you're saying okay I'm defending the Palestinian people I'm doing this and that might be right in certain ways but you know that that becomes a justification for pretext for a regime which can be very brutal and I think Syria is the most most
clear case of that uh Alexi Russia was a staun supporter of Al Assad through the war throughout the war and Russia's military intervention in 2015 turned the war in Assad's favor Russia's military bases in Syria are also its only military foothold outside the former Soviet Union for all the efforts Russia uh went through to prop up and prolong the Assad regime including bombing Syrian civilians uh how big a setback is this for Russia um well in the first place uh commenting on your um words about uh Russia supporting us at uh in the from the
very beginning of the um uh onset of the Civil War uh Russia made it clear and its leadership made it clear that it uh was not supporting in particular a person a personality uh but the state structures the state regime and uh one of the most uh important goals back in 2015 uh uh in in in September when uh Russia decided to deploy its uh Air Forces there was that actually it was about two or 3 weeks uh before um collapsing under the offensive of Isis uh back in 2015 and the the main idea was
to actually uh avoid that and to preserve the the functioning State basically so it's not about the the leadership the figure itself as a personality but the this uh the system for some that might feel like a distinction just for a moment that might feel like a distinction without a difference to some folk given that the system itself uh enabled this type of brutal repression and violence well uh we should distinguish you know system I mean the the the repressive apparatus the the cive apparatus and the state structures you know even now when HTS terrorist
organization took power and took control over you know Damascus they actually yeah they're trying to get freed off the senior uh leadership but I mean they cannot just uh destroy all the state structures and they've clearly declared that they want those who you know employed and uh do their work continue to do that because they don't want to you know destroy everything and start from scratch and uh I mean actually Syria was never been you know the the highest priority for Russia's foreign policy and if you think I mean uh about uh the Russian military
presence on the ground since 2015 it it it was quite limited I mean and again you cannot compare it with the amount of hisbah Fighters Shia militias or Iranian aluts forces I mean it was quite limited so for now the biggest setback for Russia is definitely a a um a risk of losing its uh its military basis in uh in the coast and that's uh what currently uh Moscow is trying to negotiate so far they received guarantees from uh uh from the uh from those who are in in in control in power that uh they
guarantee so far uh security and presence there but everything will be decided later by the uh by the government after transition period uh hello let me let me bring it back in uh hours after uh Al Assad's fall from Power Israel launched its first uh overt ground operation in Syria in about 50 years uh Israel also drastically scaled up its Air B government of Syria destroyed its Navy and claims that they uh preemptively struck military targets uh how do you see that is Israel exploiting uh the ostensible power vacuum here uh in order to make
territorial or or geopolitical gains I mean without a doubt the question is how long is it going to stay that way right so I want to be clear and I don't want to mince words either this is an invasion right they're going and going into further into the golon heights uh it is illegal the United Nations has already come out and and condemn the actions of Israel secondarily they're attacking from the air and basically destroying every military apparatus of the Syrian state but the question is what is the impact of all this Beyond Israel's strategic
means of securing itself if the goal of the International Community is to have a successful Syria this is quite destabilizing right they're almost setting up these Rebels whatever you want to call them they're almost setting them up for failure how so uh their focus is supposed to at now be consolidating State apparatuses consolidating their own power trying to hopefully unify the Syrian people but at the same time when you have a foreign aggressor bombing incurring uh into more territory it's destabilizing the question is and again this goes into the realm of conspiracy theory so I
don't want to go too much into this conversation but were there agreements made beforehand to basically allow some of this to occur um agreements between potentially like you're saying HTS look I can just say this as someone as an American Diplomat who previously worked on counterterrorism I am absolutely stunned at the transformation of someone like julani who previously had a $10 million bouncy on his head who was previously arrested by US forces in Iraq and and was in in prisons including AB right he's a designated terrorist but at this point his rebranding has been extraordinary
best when we think about Israel's interest Beyond securing their own sort of state which is their argument right we're doing this for our own safety it's a war on terrorism abroad Etc uh what other concerns should we have about their kind of geopolitical aspirations is this part of the greater Israel project is this is this a goal to to for plunder is this a goal for territorial expansion what should we be thinking about here well beyond uh the moral and political position on the dictatorship in Syria there's a huge world that we should pay attention
to and we should look at the connections the Viewpoint in my view should not exclude the connection between Israel and the United States in almost engineering so much of what has happened in the past 25 years when you look into uh the Syrian situation today you see things that you cannot deny but if you do not zoom out hisor Ally and analytically you will not see the pattern of the destruction of every single state that has in one way or another opposed US foreign policy in the region or Israel's hemony or domination and expansion in
the region from Yemen to Somalia to Sudan to Libya to Syria to Iraq and Lebanon in uh various ways it is uncanny how this is uh I don't want to say orchestrated but orchestrated is definitely part of the game uh to remove any obstacles to almost complete domination of the US in the region the lay of the land in the future is now going to be very open for any Israeli us and Friends uh domination without any response Iran as you will see will also be not necessarily next in the sort of the simple sense
but will be also under so much pressure to not continue you this resistance axis that we have seen crumble whether or not the components of the resistance axis are your or my or anybody else's cup of tea uh Mustafa let's talk about turkey for a minute because turkey's played a very important role in all of this uh they backed the key armed armed groups uh who overthrew Al Assad uh why does turkey make this Choice what's turkey's motivation in supporting these groups yeah I mean I again I was in Turkey when the Syrian Revolution began
in 200 11 and actually initially in the first months I remember that the Turkish government which had good relations with assab before I tried to convince him for transition like announce free elections you know let's support you I mean the revolution began so just let it be not not like Libya and all that Assad regime didn't give up and he started to brutalizing his people so then turkey jumped on the opposition wagon and I can say I mean I have many criticisms of Turkish government on a lot of domestic issues but I think I can
say turkey has stood on the right side of history on this I mean Assad regime was evil terrible and it was doomed to collapse and ultimately with great pain it did collapse and now turkey will play how much of this was selfin though how much of it was like hey we want these refugees to go back you know edana will have a much stronger position of course there is self-interest but I think there I think the the ruling kadre in Turkey were were genuinely horrified by the suffering of the Sunni you know majority population as
they are I mean mid Gaza I mean people do have feelings and I think that that was there and they have ideological links too I mean Syrian Islamic groups had friendships with turkey AKP so besides that I mean turkey open its borders to Syrian refugees and I think that's a good thing I mean turkey welcome more than three million refugees now an anti-refugee xenophobia emerg in turkey and you know it but more on the opposition side I should say now turkey is happy for I think a few reasons first of all I mean Syria is
will not be a probably hostile regime anymore the the the Builders of new Syria who will they will see HTS and others hopefully in a more democratic way turkey will try to steer that best you like you were about to jump in uh go ahead well I just want to say that even though um Mustafa I had a really nice time in the waiting room uh I am uh really fight I'm really concerned about this idea that uh the Turks uh or turkey or turke or erdogan or the Turkish government are horrified by what's happening
in Syria directly before the upzing the Turkish government and its uh business sort of um uh businessmen business communities were connecting with the Syrian regime in one of the most uh Grand scale projects supposedly to happen in the Middle East they had no problem with Syria Turkish products were seen all over Syria on all of the shelves there was not that kind of like you know a repuls nature what happened is Right during the early part of the uprising there was a rift at then turkey adopted this position but turkey is not alone all of
the other countries have actually had double standards on all this and we actually also I mean it's really interesting that we're talking about Syria we're talking about the kind of repression that existed in uh in within Syria which is absolutely correct but this is taking place while at the same time the United States and Israel are committing one of the most horrendous genocides in modern history happening today in 20 2024 not in the 19th century and we should actually recognize the connection between what is happening in Palestine what Israel is doing in GZA and everything
else and finally this view when people in the United States especially here look at what's happening in Syria in prisons which is extremely um horrendous at all levels we should not forget that we live in a country that has the highest rate of incarceration in the world where that more than 1% of the adult population is in jail more than two million people are in jail in horrendous uh conditions and violent conditions and more than 38% of those in jail are are uh African-Americans so as we look at all of this we should recognize from
what perspective we're saying this and who we are because we are administering so much of the ills that is taking place I'm not excusing anybody all right before we go I I hate to make you put pull your crystal balls out but there is a way that I'd love to get your sense in the midst of all the uprising all the tension all the resistance all the push back all the things that are happening you know how do you think this thing turns out in the short term Alexi I'll start with you oh well it's
a good question in the first place I mean uh regardless of uh either one you know happy or like cheerful about what's happening in Syria it's just one chapter which is over but the story will continue and there is no end uh you know uh in the forceable future I mean first of all uh a terrorist organization came uh to power a terrorist organization now seeing how just in the matter of two weeks the like all media around the globe just uh changing their mind changing and coming up with new uh definitions and words for
who is julani now he is a progressive jihadist what does that mean um that's first thing second thing you know HTS is not a homogeneous and monolithic group in Syria it consists of a variety of different groups of different degree of radicalism and uh where where is a guarantee that uh julani and his Affiliates will be able to keep that in control where it guarantee that there will be no infight between all of these groups uh how uh we can be sure that the uh you know the new government transition government will not uh get
back to a sear sectarian politics and and practices how to make sure that Israel are not advancing because now it's not only air strikes as the colleague were mentioning I mean tanks and the ground forces moving I mean they're already in sueda Province parts of Da Province where Drews minority is living and they're advancing and they' been um destroying not only military sites but even the sites with information with analytical centers me personally I have no uh kind of uh positive or happiness you know for for what lies ahead I mean it's a very hard
road with a lot of ifs with a lot of uh possible scenarios uh and with a high degree of a the destabilization in chaos Mustafa glad that Assad regime is gone but of course we'll see now what comes next and uh two things are important here one is whether the HDs will keep on the moderate path you know that it's been signaling lately and in idlip there are some examples of that they which they govern already uh obviously they're group roed in you know very radical copy jihadism which goes all the way all the way
to Al-Qaeda but they have changed to some extent and that should be given a chance and that should be encouraged further more and turkey can actually play a helpful role there actually turkey helped the moderation of HTS back in idlip as far as I know the other risk is attention now with the Kurdish armed groups and the new government in Damascus and that could be also diffused instead of ignited now one thing there of course turkey is important here again as the king maker and also both the country that has the biggest problem with the
kurish forces there now one thing that good that happened in turkey is that turkey has been pretty hawkish against the pkk in the several years but lately turkey has started giving signals of a reconciliation with the pkk and turkey taking their leader out of jail bringing him to Parliament so if the region is lucky if Turkey softens its tones inside turkey if there's a Reconciliation a peace process in turkey again and if stf if the Kur Kurdish forces in Syria actually keep giving on reconciliatory messages which they've been doing in the past few days there's
a chance of some deescalation and some peace here yeah we should all work to see a peaceful Syria which is not going to be happen but you know it could be on the right path if the right path is is a great start hello would say you I I want to be hopeful too it's a very precarious time right I think time will tell but the reality is that a lot of powers are invested in at least a stable Syria at the moment right the goal of the United States and Israel both has been to
topple Assad they got their goal they won right and so now what are they going to do again I go back to the economic realities because I think that that is what matters matters the most to syrians are the gulf Arab states going to come going to assist are they going to provide alternatives to the captagon trade to any type of actual resources for institutions I found it very interesting that when jalani spoke he kept on referring to institutions building the institutions of the state it almost seems Lessons Learned From perhaps Iraq lessons learned from
Libya making sure not to repeat the mistakes of regional actors so we we we will see but again the the disunity has to turn into actual tangible Unity words into action in terms of less repression and an inclusive society and I hope for the Syrian people that it's bright days ahead you know ultimately the folks the people the states the actors that have actually worked to make to give the green light including turkey to give the green light for HTS to come out under what playoffs with the United States and other Arab governments we don't
know those States are not going to make to let any single party rule in Sy and definitely not HDs they're going to all work in the next several months to make sure that a government in Syria is perhaps representative but more importantly heterogeneous because heterogeneity will mean you reduce the possibility of collective action especially regarding acting abroad lynchpin of the resistance access was Syria this has to be cut off based on all of the actors that have played a role in this so that this govern new government and the new poity is not going to
be able to act in the same way that the previous regime did whether or not uh the previous regime you know uh whether or not you however you feel about the previous regime and that is almost a guarantee you will see a syia that is weakened you will see an Arab State system that is weakened in relation to opposing existing domination of the region and one hopes out of all of this I hope that syrians will finally be able to Express themselves but this expression is going to be very domestic very limited very local but
so many syrians today will take that and I will take that I don't have to be the last word but haded herart Alexi K mov and Mustafa AK thank you so much for joining me uh everybody that is our show up front we'll be back next week
