BITCOIN REJECTION, Unrealised losses & Cycle Trading

[Music] [Applause] [Music] warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing CS a high level of risk the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all all right hello and welcome to camel Finance I'm your boy camel and we got a few things to

point out today okay so first of all I see I wish I wish I had something else to say but it's just the same stuff over and over again right last week we've already went through this I was talking about how there's so many brutal rejection for Bitcoin type comments and I was saying last week okay sure but did you really expect us to Hot Knife through the most important resistance of this Bitcoin cycle keeping in mind that that resistance goes all the way back to march to visualize this I drew the red line across

the top here and I said look I still maintain this is the key level now that just so happens to be exactly where we rejected again it speaks to not being able to just hot knife this thing it speaks to managing our expectations yes we're getting some kind of rejection here but it doesn't necessarily imply we have to go to new lows right as ever okay manage X expectations expecting to Hot Knife the bull market on and off button is just kind of unrealistic in my humble opinion so once again I say if you're out

here saying things like Bitcoin is crashing great another dump well you may just need to find yourself a girl mate on a little bit more of a serious note okay I wanted to talk about this today because I've been showing this of late this chart has been doing the rounds and there's this whole thing where the banks are sitting on massive unrealized losses and a lot of people are kind of confused cuz it's like held to maturity versus Mark to Market so I thought I'd just briefly explain this then show you a couple of things

that are quite interesting and then show you a video that I actually covered this over a year ago in this video right here the financial crisis you didn't know existed and it's only got 264 views so you probably haven't seen it but first of all let's deal with this held to maturity versus Mark to Market okay if I was to buy in this hypothetical example one Bitcoin at 60k here we go and then the price was to drop to 30k needless to say if I bought one Bitcoin at 60k and it dropped to 30k I

would be down 30k but how this whole HTM thing works okay is instead of Mark the asset price at the fair market value of 30k I would still be holding my one Bitcoin and I could just say no no no okay HTM we're just going to mark this on the books as I'm still holding 60k and that would be absolutely fine up until perhaps my wife was to come and force me to sell my Bitcoin and then of course I would be forced to sell it at Market at its fair market value which would be

30k realizing the loss so that is exactly what is going on here okay at the moment they are pricing these things on a heal to maturity basis which is essentially the same as like I said you buying Bitcoin at 60k it drops to 30 and you go no no no I've still got 60k is worth of assets because that is what I paid for it and that's totally fine and okay up until the point when somebody is forced to sell at Market of course because selling at Market reveals the true asset price so pertaining to

the unrealized losses from the banks okay this isn't a problem up until customers want their money back and then if we were to see Bank runs if we were to see people suddenly realize oh no I better get my money out the bank and put it in gold or Bitcoin or stocks or just keep it as cash under the bed okay the moment you get the customers wanting to withdraw their deposits the moment you get Capital flight from the banks they can no longer say well that's what I paid for it so that's what it's

worth and instead they have to mark to market the price and realize the losses so very very quickly if we see Capital flight from the banks it will reveal all of this is complete for gazi and of course it will cause bank failures and so the big question here is well camel won't the FDIC just bail them out and the answer is kind of yes and no okay first of all the FDIC Insurance Fund for depositors is $385 billion short of the total amount of losses on the held to maturity Securities by the US Banks

okay so they have 385 billion less than the unrealized losses that the banks are holding so when I said earlier yes and no obviously this amount here cannot bail out this okay but they could of course always print money to the tune of let's say 385 billion dollar and then use it to bail out so it's a yes and no answer okay as it stands the FDIC cannot cover the losses in the banking system but of course they have the magical finger that can push the button to the printer and summon the $385 billion to

plug the holes so they can and they can't okay will they won't they that's to be determined and so this leads me on to a little bit of side tangent here longtime viewers of the channnel anyone that has been following this whole thing anyone that has ever seen this video knows that I think this whole thing is a controlled Demolition and this right here believe it or not is pretty much the exact reason that I think this whole thing reeks of a controlled demolition to me that's why I was showing in this video I'm not

going to play the clip I'm just going to read through this slide right here but this is how the mechanism works for these unrealized losses during the c19 era they used the whole thing as an excuse to print 80% of all dollars that had ever existed in an 18-month window okay everybody knows that we saw massive printing massive inflation atal but here's what you probably didn't know okay that freshly printed money was given to Banks and here's the key thing the fed the Central Bank who is of course the boss of the other Banks told

them to buy the bonds and promised them that they would not raise rates okay so they print money they give it to the banks they say hey buy these bonds and we promise we're not going to stiff you here we promise we're not going to hike rates okay only 3 weeks later did the FED embark on the most aggressive hiking cycle that the world has ever seen so needless to say when you hike the rates and you hike them at a very aggressive rate the bonds decrease in value and the yields go up why because

of course they are inversely correlated when yields go up Bond value goes down and when Bond value goes up yields go down so once again let's take it a little bit slower this time okay they print a bunch of money they give it to the banks and they say buy these bonds we promise we won't stiff you the FED then stiffs the banks by raising rates fter than it's ever raised them ever before in history causing all of these massive unrealized losses as a result of buying those bonds with a freshly printed money from the

c19 era and again the issue is at the moment it's not really an issue because we are pricing them on a hell to maturity basis it is when they are forced to be marked to Market that's when we reveal these unrealized losses that's when we cause things like the bank runs and that is what could cause the banks to potentially collapse so I also showed in this video okay that it came out that in 2021 the banks actually lost depositor's money and then hid it in the footnotes instead of notifying the customers that's in here

somewhere that'll be in this section I think and this bit here I pulled all the documents this also led to one of the early forms of stealth QE that we saw in this ball Market since the 2022 lows okay this led to the btfp the bank term funding program this was printing money and using it to plug those holes in the banking system that were caused by the FED in the first place so this is why I've been making the case that this whole thing reeks to me of a controlled demolition okay keep in mind

I I know I've said it a couple of times but really really process this the central bank boss the FED printed money gave it to the banks said here buy these bonds then it raised rates really really aggressively after it promised it wasn't going to do that and it caused this issue so there's basically two ways to look at this was that an accident was that incompetence or did they do that on purpose to force these Banks to be reliant on the central bank I naturally have a tendency to go towards this was an orchestrated

and planned thing I don't believe this is sheer incompetence I don't believe this was an accident I think they absolutely knew what they were doing I think they wanted to create this just so that they had the banks needing to rely on the FED via various forms of stealth QE such as this btfp and we saw other things like swap lines and stuff introduced later in the cycle and then of course they just continued to raise rates and raise rates and raise rates and keep monetary policy overly restrictive keep the pores at 5 and a

qu to 5 and a half% for extended periods of time all the while making these losses worse and worse and worse for extended periods of time and so why do I think they're orchestrating a control demolition why do I think this is all part of the plan and it's ultimately because I think at some stage they want to completely destroy and Crush these Banks so that they can usher in their cbdcs time will tell as always maybe okay maybe just maybe I need to lay off smoking that thing I love to smoke but needless to

say the FDIC is now warning that 66 Banks always has to be that number right face the possibility of insolvency after being added to its problem list again is that really surprising that the FDIC sees a bunch of banks that are in trouble given that this is the state of their balance sheet and given that the money is currently just not there to plug the holes should the whole thing go kaput so there is my rather long-winded explanation of this chart I get lots of comments from people asking me to cover this and give my

opinions and you know does it matter well if you didn't know now you know and this has been one of the reasons I am so so so bullish on bitcoin and gold and silver because over the coming decade you know something has to give okay this you know this it's happening right in front of us okay you can choose to ignore it or you can choose to think there's something to it it's entirely your prerogative in the more short to medium term as I said earlier okay go and get yourself a girlfriend we're not going

to Hot Knife the most important line of resistance in this entire bull market and as Tony points out we might have a little bit of a warning sign here let's put in our red line of bull market onof switch note how the RSI has rejected at the 70 level just like it did here here here okay and what we saw was consolidation and a bit more pain so maybe this is going to put on a situation where the yellow Squig is going to be invalidated we're going to have to chop sideways for a bit and

be ready for the breakout later in life or maybe this thing is just about to turn around and blast off into overboard territory just like it did all in here and in here and in here which of course corresponded to huge pumps for Bitcoin so time will tell but once again okay we were never ever ever going to just hot knife 9month consolidation that's just not how markets work unfortunately I do think though given that we've got a cycle low due around November 5th you know you know we're probably going to work this thing out

in the next few sessions November 5th cycle low and then off we go to the races and we probably are going to see what Bernstein suggests here which is that Bitcoin will be breaking above $70,000 because the sentiment at the moment still screams risk on there is still a wall of worry to climb we're know we near euphoric yet telling me to keep an open mind about something like this in the not too distant future and so all that is left to talk about really are the charts and to be honest since yesterday obviously not

a great deal has changed okay we'll start off with the okay so as I was saying this first daily cycle here is going to be right translated right now and that's fine but the question is what happens to the next daily cycle because if it right translates again then I'm probably going to call a bottom here I'm probably going to call a three-year cycle low and expect massive upside for the dollar which really given that the stock market is in third angles and thinking about breaking down I mean it it kind of just fits the

whole idea of blowoff top big deflationary buff right it fits that idea but of course there is a chance that it seems to me a little bit of a crowded trade just based on my experience okay it seems that the dollar lower is a bit of a crowded trade at the moment but if we go right translated here for the dollar and then left translated and failed daily cycle okay that certainly puts on a downside scenario and then hopefully we can get really really really blowoff toppy in the rest of these asset classes but everywhere

I look I see people saying dollars go a you know sub 90 or whatever or sub 100 and I've even been one of those callers I was the call all the way from the top I thought we were going to basically do this get to here and then Smash down to Mid 95 then this move kind of caught me off guard and so did this move and now really I'm being caught off a third time around but when the market speaks we got to listen right if we couldn't break down there we couldn't break down

there and now apparently we're rallying you know if we chain together two right translated Cycles then it does put on this scenario from here and ultimately is that really really different than how I had it drawn originally I don't really think so so we got to watch out for that but unfortunately I I get a lot of comments on a near daily basis camel what do you think of the dollar well that's what I think I don't know we need to give this thing a bunch of candles a good couple of weeks to see whether

or not it puts on a scenario like this okay if it does something like this right translates right translates and off it goes then I'm probably going to be calling the bottom like I said if you are a dollar bear if you think this thing is going down below 100 then like I said you also need to see a left transation and a fail come out of here otherwise the Cycles just do not agree with a downside scenario for the dollar in any way shape or form something else I think is really important to watch

over the coming couple of weeks are the yields okay now the whole way down with this yellow squiggle playing out I was saying things like tell that to the bond market and the reason I was saying that is everyone's always got their opinions right including Me and Everyone likes to think that they know more than the fed or that they can predict what the fed's going to do and all of this kind of stuff but the reality is the reason I just kept saying tell that to the bond market is because the bond market knows

best okay doesn't matter what our opinions are it doesn't matter what anyone thinks their read is over the macro or it doesn't matter how smart you think you are relative to J pal the reality is when the yields are selling off like this the bond market in aggregate is telling the FED it's got a cut rates okay but of course the inverse is true if this is a breakout and remember this is the 10-year yield so this is what we call the chart of truth if this thing is going to break out and this breakouts

for real then unlike when we were moving down here okay where we were saying to tell that to the bond market we are definitely going to see cuts and of course we did get a 50 basis point cut now what we're seeing is the bond market say whoa whoa whoa we think we might have made a mistake AK maybe things weren't as bad as we thought they were if this is not a fake breakout and this continues to the upside then the bond market is now saying everyone that thinks there's a cut coming is wrong

okay the bond market if the yields continue to move higher is now saying whoa whoa whoa slow down fed we don't want you to go cut in too fast so as ever like I said earlier we we've all got our opinions right we've all got our ideas we've all like to think we're smarter than the FED but the reality is yields moving downwards is fed has to cut pretty soon and has to continue to cut and yield moving up like they are now are saying we might even be putting a pause back on the table

so this is why I'm always so dismissive this is why I always say things like tell that to the bond market because ultimately none of our opinions matter what matters is what the yields are doing and again right you could see my expectation that this would be rejected at resistance and roll over so far that's not what we've got and again if we continue to see these yields push higher then we are going to put more pauses on the table or perhaps a 25 basis point cut currently the CME still thinks we're going to see

at least a 25 basis point cut and and that would make sense a few days ago we were at around 120 basis points behind the curve okay when you do the 2-year yield minus the FED funds rate we're now down to about 108 basis points behind the curve needless to say this is going to continue to move higher if we do see a 25 basis point cut but is a move higher here something to be championing and celebrating well what do we see last time we got down to this kind of huge fed behind the

curve by 150 plus basis points okay we saw this and what did that correspond with when you look at the date down here okay that corresponded with the GFC what about the time before when we got down to support and bounced off strongly what did we see okay that would be the dotom bubble bursting somewhere in here so should we be champion in this not necessarily but then again does this fit in with the whole base case hypothesis does this fit with the dollar getting ready to Moon shot its way higher as I showed you

with that whole deflationary big yellow squiggle of mine it does does all of this kind of make sense given that we've been talking about this since the lows blowoff top three angles third angle violation okay it says right here in pink at the top Dixie to 130 140 long the Vicks again we're getting dangerously close to finding that low and long in the vixs at the end of this month so it kind of all makes sense right it does kind of all make sense on a balance of probabilities I do probably think it makes more

sense to me to see this yield roll over and start to price further Cuts but you know we'll take it one day at a time for now similarly to the dollar we're just going to have to give this thing more space because there's no way of knowing it's far too early to draw conclusions here gold continues to push higher and remember the key thing to look for here since we're on Tuesday today is if this is going to left translate it should be today or Tom tomorrow that we see a reversal so if we don't

stage a reversal then that puts on a new scenario where we right translate in this daily cycle then left translate in the fifth to go down and find that Weekly cycle low to be honest I kind of want to see this thing rip higher that's that's really what I want to see since I'm positioned for that by some miners that are starting to really outperformed now but either way if we start to see some reversals and third angle violations then I'm probably going to get short here since we are late in the weekly cycle I

have had high success rates with that in the past I think somewhere in this neighborhood I did quite well at catching it and then somewhere in this neighborhood I actually was short going into the weekly cycle and had to flip long once we got this range break here I also would consider shorting this Market even on a third angle violation kind of like jumping in front of a train here it kind of seems a little bit like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller trying to Shorter Trend this powerful but again if the third

angle breaks and at least they got a thesis to do so and an area on the chart to manage the risk around ultimately I still think longer term this is what we're doing something akin to this notice how this would be a weekly cycle low due you know end of November Maybe early December and then out of that we should be seeing some bull market resumption so overall longterm doesn't change much shortterm still trying to extract some additional gains as and when the Cycles present opportunity to do so stock market to me looks like it

wants to come in for a touch of this third angle and then we're going to get a reaction whether that's a break down and cam will flip short and locks in the profit from all the stock trades or whether we're going to make a touch of this and then shoot up that's kind of what I'd like to see but we are getting pretty late in this third angle they don't typically last that long and I'm seeing a whole sea of people very very convinced that we are incredibly early in this cycle and we're not you're

just not a cycle trader sorry to be the the bearer of bad news if you were a cycle trader you'd know we were extremely late so anyway hopefully there is more upside right NASDAQ still kind of holding this level and not doing a great deal Dow Jones coming back in for a touch of third angle and similar deal right if it breaks down then I'm going to lock in this one and a half thousand odd points I think it might be a bit more than that and if not then hopefully we can get a touch

and a resumption of the ball market for a little longer but like I said you know longer term Cycles are they're coming to an end here and we're seeing a whole heap of people saying this thing's just started well I hate to break it to you it's not just started okay since November of 2022 or October the Dow is up 51% okay like nearly 15,000 points you're you're not early to this bull market you're incredibly late still expecting this vix to roll over and give us a new low and then hopefully we can get some

Hedges on and that should be able to offset any kind of Black Swan that shows up if it were to do so not calling for one by any means Russell 2K still doesn't want to emerge towards my 2700 Target but I think it probably will at some point and Bitcoin as I was talking about the start of the video right I mean did you really think this thing was just going to Hot Knife the ball Market on and off switch because that doesn't really make sense my base case as part my yellow squiggles is was

that we might just have a pop up here take all that liquidity trap a bunch of breakout Traders and then sort of wreck them into that daily cycle low before resuming it looks to me a little bit now like I mean there's always a chance we do this okay and then I won't be far wrong but it looks to me a little bit now like we might be doing an ABC in here into that cycle low in November and then going so either way I'm fine it doesn't really change much I'm going to stay long

and strong until that next cycle low and then I'm going to be adding another position out of that cycle low with a stop below wherever the low forms and you know hopefully that should be that on our way to 100K I do have enough experience trading Bitcoin to know that I see a lot of people in my comments and on Twitter saying surely it's going to pull back to this level or see you at 40K cam I've seen all these kind of comments and one thing Bitcoin loves to do is just lock people out okay

that's what all of this whole move off the lows was right this was very very quick to go from 18 to 25k and then everyone was going oh no it's bearish it's bearish and the whole time through here people were screaming at me saying like what the hell is left translation what is what do you mean alltime high before the harving the thing clearly going back to New lows or at least a retest of 16k and then again in a matter of weeks it was a doubling again to 50K everyone was going ha biggest ball

trap of all time we had like massive accounts here selling a 702 retracement and all that kind of nonsense and then again in a matter of how many sessions is this 50 days right not even two months Bitcoin rips again and does another doubling to about 73k so this is what I mean when I say Bitcoin can do Bitcoin things there's a whole heap of people out there thinking to themselves well it has to go 60k well I'm not touching it till 49k I'm not touching it till 40K but most of the way you harm

these people right is is just to do that have this big squeeze that only lasts 8 10 12 weeks up to 100ish K and then the whole thing collapses and leaves everyone thinking oh my gosh I ruined my entire opportunity I I got the entire cycle wrong right so that that just that just makes sense to me that we're going to do something like this cycle low and moon shot we'll find out okay we still have to be open of course as always to Bob lucas' scenario into that Weekly cycle low and go we also

still have to be open I guess if this thing continues down to actually seeing perhaps even a second angle touch or violation this one is the one I think is the least likely because we've just spent so much time in here wearing everyone out that it seems like now would be the perfect time to just like I said lock them out just like it did back here just like it did back here the thing moves so fast that people can't keep up with it and again it kind of goes back to this you know we'll

finish how we started here there's so many people that see a 3% candle for Bitcoin and they go oh it's dumping it's dumping every time you post it dumps right but I mean it it shows you how inexperienced they are and it shows you how unable to handle a volatile asset this is a 70 Vol asset and it went something like 32% okay in 40 or 45 days and then from that high it pulled back what are we down now 3.8% in the last two candles and people think this is a dump okay how come

we're not counting this move off of here how come we just ignoring the 32% before the minus 3% you know it speaks to like I said people just can't handle the fire it was the same in here there's 174% move in 150 days people are just not mentally prepared to sit on board something like that and I see a whole heap of people saying things like this is the worst cycle ever okay this is the hardest cycle ever you know bit Bitcoin hasn't done anything but the reality is from that low approximately to that high

we did 350 odd perc even today at today's price after the quote brutal rejection or massive dump again for Bitcoin okay we are up 315 per. and so I say this out of love and respect if you're not up close to 35% if you're a Trader you should be up more than that okay because you know the longtime viewers of the channel know we had leverage positions that caught the bulk of this move okay yeah we paid a few stops on some Cycles on the way down but I must be above 1,000% for my performance

on this Bitcoin cycle just trading Bitcoin and that doesn't include the miners and so if you're not close to 300% or if you're sitting on a loss here ask yourself what is a better use of your time is it better to sit on Twitter all day telling people the things dumping and watching a two-minute chart or a one minute candle or a 5-minute candle or is it better to look at what you did and try to learn from your mistakes try to improve try to come up with a game plan and a system for how

you can actually extract some profit out of this Market because for those of us that have been here before for those of us that have been getting in at the right time you know this has been an incredibly easy and profitable cycle and yet everywhere I look I see people you know don't spend your day writing it's dumping after a three minute candle when we moved up 30 something per 32 33% in the prior 40 days you know that's not useful once again okay you need to find yourself a girl mate just do anything other

than watch the one minute chart okay anyway I say that out of love please do hit that subscribe button if you want to see how I handle the upcoming cycle low for Bitcoin please do hit that subscribe button if you want to see me handle the rest of this gold cycle and of course follow along as we continue to extract as much profit as possible from the stock market during its third angle I'll also be looking for that hedge with the vixs towards the end of this month so hit that subscribe button turn the notifications

on needless to say if you're a level three member you'll get notified in real time with exact levels and other than that have a fantastic week touch grass at least wait for a daily close I'm your boy camel peace touch grass relax at least wait for a daily close keep your marbles and tght appreciate the cycle is your r that STS the time just to the rest meanwhile look forward to another we find set to distress