Futures: Intraday Hourly Price Movement Ranges

[Music] hey traders Wragge here and in this free video I'm gonna walk you through a question that we had going into the latter half of the day and a little bit of a how-to on how to day trade the afternoon but specifically how to day trade after dramatic moves so we saw a pretty dramatic move as the market sort of read I jested the blurred comments on from what Wharton radio and then also had to suddenly digest the news that the Chinese are in fact not going to Montana thus pretty much evaporating all hopes of

even a small sort of agreement to buy more eggs in the US Chinese are going back home markets basically sold off on that and of course we know that's probably going to prompt a whole new series of potential tariffs and and the ratcheting of the trade war which I think all from a timing perspective work out really good for some of the shorts that we're looking at we'll dive into those a little bit more in the premium video but here in the free video I want to talk about a little tool that we use called

hourly price movement ranges and it worked on the SMP pretty nicely and it worked on the Nasdaq really nicely too so we get this big sell-off and the market crushes the typical price movement ranges that we would see between 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. remember these are hourly price movement ranges what these are are calculations based upon the historical price movement range for any number of it's really for anything I have these calculated for indices for commodities or individual stocks and ETFs so ultimately what we have is every hour there's a low average and a high

probability for how many points we could move for that hour and we get this information straight from Autochartist so this is a service that I've personally used but involved with for many many many years and we look at this kind of data well this just gives me an idea of how many price how many points we could move depending upon the time of day and I'll tell you what it's one of those tools that really is so elegantly simple and yet one of those things that there isn't any real measurement for this is not Average

True Range it's to me Average True Range is more awesome cousin so based on the time of day we have an expectation of how much we could move so then we take this data and then we transfer it to the charts and it's it's calculated based on the highs and lows of each hour so you can project a high and a print project a low so let's talk about these projections into the latter half of today so I'm going to talk about just a couple hours here the last two hours the day two to three

three to four and notice that here's the here's the upper end projection and that's that's actually projected the moment we have a new low for the hour soon as that low is in and it will adapt accordingly we know that that level is the resistance level so and once we know the high we can project the load so it's almost like mocking out what the hourly price candle would look like so what it ends up doing is giving us potential exhaustion levels so this would be resistance and this would be support now some folks I

think tend to want to do you know this kind of stuff which is but just fine I think that's fine but I think that most traders or mental transmission doesn't go from Drive to reverse that well in other words I think most traders do not do well buying and selling buying and selling some do some don't I like to have a directional bias it allows me to make bigger bets and more confident bets so what I do is once we sold off notice that we were trading below the anchored volume weighted average price cluster the

trio of volume weighted average prices that I use or below those so I have bearish bias fact we've been below those all day and so it's much easier to be a bear be a seller in that environment so we get rejected from that level early on in the day and we're well below it we get the bad news about the Chinese in Montana and then all of a sudden we know that as long as we're still below this short short right now obviously you can take profit at levels like this no doubt so this is

going to be support and these could essentially be your targets so this is one of the tools that I use as a trader this is a tool that I've the actual what's known as the volatility analysis for mono Chartists is something we use in the room each and every day especially during the fall training months volatility analysis so think about how you're projecting what the probability of price movement from hour to hour may be and then how that could actually factor in to your decisions about entries and exits and that's something I'd love you to

consider how are you measuring that right now and if you could what would you do with it this is how I use that kind of information we'll talk more about this an upcoming free videos but in the meanwhile just kind of introducing the concept and I'll see you the next update