the markets have seen a very bad year in 2024 for the altcoins as ethereum has dropped by 35% against Bitcoin causing the altcoins to drop constantly over the year so the question is what's 2025 going to do for ethereum let's discuss as you know I'm quite a big bull on ethereum and I've actually been going all in into altcoins and most ly into the ethereum ecosystem and I actually predicted what was ready to take place which is that I'm going to be doing it too early which was during this summer and my portfolio went down
substantially but some altcoins have been making some gains for me so it's not as bad as you think it could be but ethereum has been underperforming significantly and we can see it in the data ethereum has been the the terrible one for 2024 in the sense that it has seen a 46% return against USD but it went down by 35% against Bitcoin and if we reference that towards other altcoins we can see that Solana had an 86% return in 2024 against the US dollar and only Min - 15% against Bitcoin and you might not say
that it actually went down against Bitcoin but the actual return for salana was made in 2023 2024 it had a negative return in 2024 we saw that sui had a 43% return against the dollar and a 140% return against Bitcoin so yes ethereum has seen a relatively bad year and the chart that we have here which is salana versus e shows what ethereum has been performing or has been doing um we have seen a th% run on salana versus e since May 2023 but the times are changing as we have also seen that Solana versus
e has peaked in the previous months and we already seen have seen a correction of more than 30% since that recent High indicating that money might be reversing from Solana Into The Ether ecosystem the question is though what is the reason that ethereum has been underperforming as in the previous Cycles we have seen that ethereum is the actual core pillar of an all season or for momentum for the altcoins well the first argument is the fact that macroeconomic climate isn't favoring going more into the risk curve which is that if the yelds are very high
and the dollar is very strong there's no interest into the ethereum defi ecosystem and as we can see the yields have been going up by 30% since the beginning of September indicating that government bonds yield a higher return than going into stable coins taking on E for instance as you know ethereum is Defi and when there is high yields there is a less interest into Defi and when there is less interest into defi there are lower returns into defi as there is the demand the supply case and that pendulum that swings both ways so if
the yields go down the yields uh go down on the government bonds the interest rates on Define eat go up and there is more interest into eat the good part though is that the tvl has been running up substantially so what we see in the data is that we have been breaking this Cycle's high already while the price of ethereum hasn't been breaking through it yet and we can see that we're getting into the stages of the 2021 highs on tvl which show that there is a certain interest into Defi and it starts to accelerate
in the trend is upwards and that there is an actual gap between price and fundamental um aspect of ethereum in the sense that fundamentally the tvl is crawling up but price is lagging behind and that's what we see quite often the second thing is that ethereum hasn't seen um any hype there has been many fundamental upgrades taking place and many complex changes taking place in 2024 but it didn't result into immediate effects in the price we have seen that it went from girly to heski which is a change in the terms of the test net
that they use we've seen the denune upgrade which is one of the biggest upgrades that we have seen in terms of scalability we've seen that blops in terms of Proto Shing have been getting into ethereum in which also scalability has been a big aspect of what has been taking place within ether one of the biggest issue that ether has in the previous years and we've seen that there were big steps going forward in terms of account abstraction through which we can all start using ethereum and the transaction costs go down um this is from AIP
7702 the next upgrade to come is pectra which is expected to happen in q1 of 2025 and this is all very complex and Tech IAL and Retail and users don't really see any result out of this except for the fact that you can see that the transaction fees have been going down however when we talk about transaction fees we can see that Solana has lower transaction fees so that's why the hype shifted towards Solana mostly so the costs have been have been lowered on ether L 2s are doing great um optimism arbitrum they are all
doing great but there there is still no hype while Solana has been seeing the hype with deep in um Solana at the beginning of the year Solana has been seeing um interest in terms of the mcoin fiesta and there has been a rumor where they were expecting to be doing better than ethereum which is something that we have been seeing going over the Cycles as well then finally the ethereum ETF wasn't an actual success in the sense that we've seen an outflow at beginning and not really that much interest into the ethereum ETF um in
general compared to bitcoin and that few the negative sentiment surrounding e and that has resulted into the current price action but in the last weeks of 2024 we've seen that more than a billion has been coming into ethereum so the question is what's next now the question is what is ethereum going to do in 2025 uh um as in the previous three years we have seen a downward Trend against Bitcoin and the question is when is that going to reverse and how is that going to reverse to actually get more momentum into the altcoins and
right now with the ethereum ETF we see that there is a substantial amount of inflow and that has a marginal bigger impact into the price of ethereum that is one D behind what ethereum could be doing and I would like to go through all the data to actually make that statement real which is if you look at ethereum the current market capitalization of ether is 420 billion um while Bitcoin is currently at 2 trillion which means that Bitcoin is five times larger than ethereum is at this point and ethereum has something unique which is it's
proof of stake while Bitcoin is proof of work ethereum has 33 million each Stak at the this point which is approximately 120 billion in US dollar value that is close to 30% of the entire Supply being locked so that is not circulating actually takes a lot of time to get it out of there which means that in order to get a price move taking place the market cap is even reduced by the amount of St staked eat then on top of that we've got a bunch of ether that's being used by deps for gas fees
transactions building or just storing into treasuries um to fuel or to continue building those projects that are building on top of eat then something more technical which is the amount of issuance of eat versus Bitcoin per year um if we look at it on a daily perspective then we can see that since Jan January 2024 only 280,000 e have been added onto the supply of ethereum and the total supply of eat is around 120 million which means that there is a 0.23% inflation in 2024 and you the thing is that the more eat is being
used then it might even become deflationary increasing the potential price of ethereum and that's the pendulum that swings within ethereum as well if we combine that or compare that towards Bitcoin we can see that the Bitcoin inflation is 1. 70% which equals 900 Bitcoin per day which equals 85 million per day in Us doll value when we talk about ether 0.23% which is 767 eats per day which is 2.7 million per day which means that if there is an influx in the ethereum ETF then the impact is going to be substantially higher um in eat
than in Bitcoin and the ethereum ETF inflow continues to be super positive as it is ethereum is the most compliant with regulations ethereum is the most secure and scalable blockchain so in the last month of 2024 we've seen two billion in inflow in ethereum and you can see that with the inflation and the um Supply increase on a daily basis that if that continues to be the case then the price impact will be substantial and also so the macroeconomic landscape is likely going to turn in the sense that the FED is likely to predict um
two more rate cuts to be taking place in 2025 which means that there's more interest going into eat but they also expect that the unemployment rate is almost not going to change and GDP is going to be positive or stays positive the moment that it goes out of balance and the unemployment rate starts to Rally up or the GDP becomes negative those are going to be triggers for 2025 that the yields are likely going to drop and those are going to be triggers where ethereum is likely going to do well and then on top of
that we know that in 2017 and in 2021 ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin significantly and that is due to the fouryear cycle and the heaviness of going off or going heavier into the risk curve which I think is going to be repeating itself as history repeats itself self let's discuss the TA as I mentioned in the previous Cycles there's one year that ethereum was outperforming Bitcoin which was 2017 2021 and hopefully as well 2025 so it's time to discuss the technical analysis which in this case you can see that I'm not lying um in the
actual case of December 2016 we marked the low of the price action of ethereum against Bitcoin resulting in to a 2,000% increase against Bitcoin after that I do not believe that we're going to have any price related increase compared to that it was the first cycle of ether you can also see that in 2016 we already had one first initial run um in 2020 December 2020 we had the exact same and after that we had a 300 to 400% increase resulting after that in a bare Market of three years taking place and likely we are
again in November or December of 2024 we are bottoming out at this point likely to start having a rally taking place from here however the difference that we can see is that in the periods of the previous Cycles so in this case of 2015 and 2016 we already had a run in 2019 we had a run and in 2022 to 2024 we didn't really have any upwards run taking place the markets were down marking the longest bare Market that we had now if we start looking at what we can predict then we could be looking
at a bare bare thesis a neutral thesis and we can look at a bull market thesis and the first thing is if we are going back towards the previous high that we had in 2021 that would result into a 175% increase if we take half of that we can basically Mark that as the bare Market Theses which is an 80% increase if you add the 80% towards the current price valuation of ether you get toward 65,000 to 75,000 for one each if you have the neutral thesis of 175% then if you do that on top
of the current price action you get towards $10,000 now if we are going to have some momentum that we break that high and get a 300% run which is close towards the high that we have seen in um 2017 then that would indicate that we're going to have a 4X of the current price which equals 125,000 to $15,000 and that is just ethereum alone if you have these runs and you compare that to what's Bitcoin going up again then you need to multiply it even more and that's where the actual gains start to kick in
so if you have let's say 6 and a half ,000 10K and 15K and if Bitcoin is going to have a 50% run to 150k from here you get to $10,000 you get to $15,000 and you get to 22k and the higher Bitcoin goes the higher ether could go especially if ethereum gets hype and it becomes deflationary and ethereum ETF starts to kick in so ethereum is currently at the lowest valuation in this cycle has seen a three-year bare mark market and it's not really weird to be looking at a potential case of a $20,000
ethereum that if ethereum goes or triples against Bitcoin and then you're already at 10 and a half to $12,000 and it's also not where to expect Bitcoin to double from here so then you get to watchs the thesis of 20K per e and if that is your thesis then everything on top of ethereum which are optimist for instance is very likely to outperform ethereum in the sense that it can yield an even higher return and as you can see here optimism against ether is currently also at a cycle low where in the previous runs in
December 202 2023 we have seen a rally taking place of 2x we've seen another one in December 2022 and it's very likely to expect that this is going to have another run taking place and that's why if you're looking to get more return if you're investing into The Ether ecosystem you need to if these are there you need to be looking at charts like optimism versus eat which indicates how much of an upside that can be made and in this case we are likely going to be back to watchs these highs resulting into a three
a against each and then you can do the math again when it comes to how high optimism can go the same can be said for chain link against ether it's very clear the chain link against ether has seen a disastrous bare Market as we had this peak here at 46,000 um in August of 2020 and now we're consolidating at 3,000 and we start to make higher highs and higher lows in the sense that we're making an actual uptrend indicating that there's a lot of upside to be made and that is not weird for chain link
against ether to do a 3 to 5x and then you can start calculating it again you understand the point and especially if we're looking at the D defi ecosystem the same can be said for things like synthetics which is still making new lows while defi is already waking up and finally if we look at total three versus Bitcoin we can see that we have the biggest and longest bullish Divergence taking place where the altcoins are valued against Bitcoin which indicates that the reversal is already taking place and that we're just at the start of the
actual bull cycle where expecting ethereum to outperform and yielding a potential return of 20K or 10K to 20K is not where to expect thank you very much for watching to this update make sure to subscribe to this YouTube channel and I'll see you again on Thursday for a new one ciao
