Trump wins big letters on a big screen but how big was the victory well there's different ways of looking at this the most important of course is this map of the state and the Electoral College votes 2020 this is what it looks like there's a lot of blue there Donald Trump turns that red and that's really really important because look it's all about these Battleground States here we talked about those so much during the election actually if a few thousand people change their mind in those Battleground States it can change the course of an election
we've worked out how many people if they ch their mind would have ended up with kamla Harris being president it's just 123,50 different votes would have had CA Harris as President elect now that may seem like a Raaz of thin margin especially when you think the expected electorate was around 160 million votes but actually this is pretty good going we've compared it to previous presidents and Donald Trump's margin is a lot better than Joe Biden's in 2020 it's not as good as Barack Obama's who did very very well here but it's bigger than Bush's in
2004 and of course in 2000 we're just 269 people if they had changed their vote in the right places it would have had a different outcome another way of looking at this is counties now this is all the counties across the S you can see how many there are and any of these in red have been flipped from Democrat to Republican might not look like a lot but actually that's a really good showing it's very hard to flip a county in fact in twoth thirds of these counties Donald Trump had the best performance for a
republican since 2000 the year 2000 that is again a very impressive showing and it really counts as well because if you do it in an important place with a big population Center like Donald Trump did here we go over to Detroit and the county of Wayne County around it comla Harris has won this but actually Donald Trump's performance here with more than a third of the vote is the best for a republican since 1988 and that adds up to a lot of votes those votes add up to the state tally and all of that is
even more impressive when we talk about favorability and how much favorability Trump had now this shows you going back to 2012 2016 2020 202 for the net favorability you can see the Democrats uh candidates the presidents were just about favorable Donald Trump very unfavored in 2016 minus 22% he's improved that slightly but he's still minus 7% but still what he's done with voters in terms of his voting coalition is really interesting here this is a change in votes share amongst various different groups and look 18 to 24 year olds they used to be firmly on
the Democrat side they have gone much closer to the middle they're still Democrats in blue but look at that shift look at that shift in Hispanic votes a small shift in black votes income under 50,000 that used to be Democrat voters Donald Trump has taken them over to the Republican side he's done the same with Suburban voters and he had a lead in people without a college degree but he's extended that lead so that all bodess really well for the Republicans in 2028 if they can maintain that and if it's not too soon to be
talking about 2028 there's two interesting places I want to take you just before it because going into this election there were nine places nine counties since the year 2000 which had predicted the correct winner every single time now we are down to just two so these are Bell weathers which are not sort of predicting it but if you want to look at where has been getting it right every time Essex County you know we're going back here but actually goes back to the 90s but you can see every time it's picked the right winner over
there and if we go into Republican territory we'll head over to Montana and we'll look at another County Blain County here that's had a similar thing always picking the right winner so when it comes to 2028 keep an eye on Essex County and bla County they may hold the clues as to who the next winner will be
