the next big question that we're all asking I can't even believe we're just asking it two years later and and you actually just wrote about it um you said that it is possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days from now two years ago did you think that and when you say a few thousand days I can do various versions of math on what that means well I mean there is wide uncertainty and there's also different definitions of what super intelligence is uh I yes two years ago we thought we were
on a pretty steep curve I mean we started open a ey because we thought this was possible and maybe not that far away and it has gone well but we hoped it was going to go well like we we believed in deep learning as as this unbelievable new discovery of humanity and we thought it could go here and we had a duty to get it here and to make it go well and to broadly share the benefits but yeah we did think we could get here and we still believe we can get here it's not
for sure there's a ton of hard work a ton of research and Engineering still to do but I think it's possible uh and I think it's possible not super far in the future I expect that in 2025 we will have systems that people look at even people who are skeptical of current progress and say wow that I did not expect that that does change what like what um agents are the thing everyone is talking about I think for good reason you know this idea that you can give an AI system a pretty complicated task like
a kind of task You' give to a very smart human that takes a while to go off and do and use a bunch of tools and create something of value um that's the kind of thing I'd expect next year and that's like a huge deal we talk about that like oh you know this thing is going to happen but that's like that if that works as well as we hope it does that can that can really transform things okay so what are we supposed to think there's been a whole bunch of headlines in the past
couple of weeks where people have talked about maybe that the scaling laws of AI actually are slowing down and you put out this I don't know it was cryptic or it was very direct you put out a tweet where you wrote there is no wall I don't see how it could be any less cryptic than that like that was an attempt not to be cryptic at all and say hey this is going to keep going in fact um hopefully this will put it to rest at least for a while uh yeah I I've always been
struck by how much people love to speculate on is there a wall is scaling and to keep going is there and like rather than just like look at the curve of progress and say maybe I shouldn't bet an exponential against an exponential like that in any case um we have a bunch of new great stuff so we're doing this kind of fun thing for the holidays we're doing 12 days of open AI starting tomorrow but we're going to launch we'll either launch something or do a demo every day for the next like 12 week days
and without saying too much about the thing for tomorrow it is continued progress
