Mark, what are you looking for? What does the market need to hear from this update that is apparently going to give us some details on what substantial progress looks like? I can only assume the first reaction will be positive just because of how they'll sell it.
Look at the way we're talking about it. Look at the expectations out there. Scott Bastian is not stupid.
He wouldn't have announced there are substantial progress, use his words and been excited to have this press conference. Both sides agreed there was real progress made unless they could, you know, herald some some great headlines today. Now, the problem is we're not expecting many concrete things to have actually been signed.
It's more going to be about an aggressive framework for how they kind of make progress. But it might include the suspension of the really aggressive level of tariffs so far. So I expect that no matter what they sell now, they're going to sell it as a win.
That's what they've already teed up for this press conference. So the headlines that come out of this conference are probably going to look very, very positive, are going to get another big bump in stocks, despite the fact we've already seen a bump today. Now, the question is, what happens next?
As I said, this is only the first step. Everyone agrees that and they can't necessarily sign many, you know, serious deals. What they can do is maybe suspend some of the previously imposed things, but they can't get, you know, significant progress.
We're likely to end up in a world of much higher tariffs than we had a couple of months ago. Now, the question is, how quickly do we go to kind of studying the real final endgame and how quickly we get there and what the concrete terms are? Could that happen within hours?
Could it happen within days coming weeks? I'm not really sure. I will just point to one thing.
You know, last week I talked about turning practically bearish again after wanting kind of believing in the relief rally up until last week. And I said that, you know, the time to mark technicals. We're saying one more closing high.
We have another closing high yet Maybe we get it today, maybe it's tomorrow or you start trading the bearish scenario. But I've got to wait to the details in the press conference. Mark, walk us through the positioning story here, especially going to the fact, as you point out, that we don't actually know, is there a line in the sand that currency markets in particular I'm thinking of dollar investors are actually positioning for if we get, say, an 80% level, does that create some sort of response in one direction or the other?
No, I'm not sure that that there is such a binary level because again, it's about what what with the long term end game is here. I think if they talk about a major reduction, it doesn't really matter where they go down to. I mean, 80% still ridiculously high, but if they talked about that would be a real positive.
They might go even lower. Either way, it's those headlines that will be seen as a positive in the short term that'll see the dollar recovery, that kind of a temporary squeeze of the sell America trade. But longer term, we're going to care about the implementation.
And I said it might just be a suspension of temporary elevated tariffs. So I don't think there is one kind of binary level here. I think that you talk about positioning.
I think there's two different time spans here that the shorter term market has got short The dollar been looking for ways to play the dollar a little bit, squeeze in that trade, but still not position. But structurally, the world is still deeply long dollars. So I'd say that the weaker positioning in the in the short term is that short dollar position.
But at some point, if there's a squeeze higher in the dollar, there are big long term hands ready to sell into it aggressively. And I think the same situation for U. S.
stocks as well.
