What does Russia's nuclear policy change mean for world security? | Inside Story

President Vladimir Putin revises Russia's nuclear policy Paving the way for the broader use of atomic weapons the move heightens tensions with the west and escalates the conflict with Ukraine what does the change mean for Global Security this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the program I'm NE Barker since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago it's repeatedly threatened to use its nuclear Arsenal it hasn't deterred Western allies from giving Ukraine military assistance worth billions of dollars but this week President Vladimir Putin updated the country's nuclear Doctrine now if a non-nuclear state with the

aid of a nuclear power threatens Russian sovereignty it will be considered a joint threat and Russia can respond with at weapons Source behind Putin's laced its escalation how will it impact the fighting in Ukraine and how will the West respond will discuss these issues with our panel but first this report by Demetri medeno Russia has the largest nuclear Arsenal in the world and has been discussing changes to its nuclear policy since September scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be deployed now include critical threats to Russian sovereignty aggression by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear

state which will now be treated as a joint attack and ballistic missiles targeting Russia President Vladimir Putin signed the new doctrine hours after Ukraine launched us supplied tactical missiles attacks into Russian territory the fact that several attacks were used in the Brians region of course it's a signal that they want to escalate and it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles without the Americans Putin has said this many times Russia and the US hold 88% of the world's nuclear Arsenal like its European allies Washington called the amendment irresponsible rhetoric we have not seen any reason

to adjust our own nuclear posture um but we will continue to call on Russia to stop uh Bell coose and irresponsible rhetoric Ukraine's president Vadim zinski noted it was symbolic that the changes came into effect on the 1,000th day of the war even especially this day they presented nuclear weapon strategy why they didn't present peace strategy no of course of course nuclear weapon strategy I don't want to go deeply further to this and don't want to repeat very simple things Putin wants War a year into its in invasion of Ukraine Russia suspended the new start

treaty a 2010 agreement with the US to reduce nuclear arms citing America's involvement in the conflict Donald Trump is weeks away from assuming office and he promised to end the war in 24 hours but recent changes in policy by both Washington and Moscow could put that goal Out Of Reach Demetri medeno Al jazer for Inside Story all right let's bring in our guests from Moscow we're joined by pavl felgenhauer Russian defense and Military analyst in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania is Colin Clark the research director at the sufan group a global intelligence and security consultancy and in Munich

is Marina Miron a postdoctoral researcher in the war studies Department in Kings College London welcome all three of you to Inside Story pavl I wonder if I can start with you if you could set the scene for us can you explain why nuclear doctrines exist the US has its own that it reviews periodically other nuclear powers do too what role do these doctrines serve especially when they're altered pavle well in different countries they serve basically different purposes because the bureaucratic systems of governance in Russia and America well they're very very different and the United States

is a more legalistic Society with the the two- party system when the different parties change in power and then the these doctrines documents that have been legally adopted carry on though the party in power has changed in Russia it's very different uh Russia adapted publicly published uh military doctrines including nuclear posture Doctrine talking about right now uh that's kind of mimicking what's happening in the west the West has such documents will have these documents and they play a very important role because they play to the nuclear uh deterrent situation brinkmanship which has been used since

the beginning more or less of the nuclear age in the 50s and that's important of course though in Russia actually usage of these documents as a directive when there's kind of when actually they'll be deciding maybe one day you to use nuclear weapons or not to use nuclear weapons they will not Russian leadership military and political will not be looking up the doctrine right they'll be deciding at another adhoc basis okay Colin let's talk about the changes to Russia's nuclear Doctrine because Russia says quote nuclear strikes could be justified by aggression against the Russian Federation

by any non-nuclear state with a participation crucially or support of a nuclear State Colin to avoid any confusion who is Russia addressing here well this is clearly uh meant to threaten or blackmail the United States uh and its continued support for Ukraine uh I should point out that this is uh a stark departure though from Russian nuclear Doctrine if you think back to October 2022 uh when there was more nuclear saber rattling by the Russians there was multiple call calls between uh the United States and its Russian counterparts both secretary defense Lloyd Austin and uh

Sergey shyu as well as general Mark Millie and general Valerie gasimov to clarify what Russian nuclear Doctrine was grov talked about three uh circumstances in which the Russians would use nuclear weapons in those cases one threatening the stability of the regime two foreign powers attacking with weapons of mass destruction and three uh tactical nukes that could be used to offset catastrophic Battlefield losses the US intelligence community at the time uh estimated there was a 50% chance the Russians might be willing to use tactical nukes in Ukraine this makes the uh you know this loosens the

doctrine uh and makes it more likely uh this is a this is a big sea chain this is not something uh to dismiss right we'll get into will they won't they use these weapons shortly but uh um Marina also in the not so small print of these changes to Russia's uh nuclear Doctrine it says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass destruction used against it or its allies or in the event of aggression using Conventional Weapons that threatens the sovereignty and territorial Integrity of Russia or bellarus so

bellus has been mentioned by name what does Russia mean by its allies we know of course there are large numbers of North Korean troops potentially poised to fight alongside Russia as it attempts to retake K is North Korea covered by these tweaks to the nuclear Doctrine by Russia good day well that is an interesting point as a matter of fact and I think there is a degree of ambiguity in terms of who is meant by Russia's allies could that also include China perhaps and Iran so I think the fact that that these are not named

by name uh is by intention because the Western World will keep guessing who is it that cannot be attacked or shouldn't be attacked otherwise the Russians might step in and I think what is even more interesting here we have been just talking about article 11 of a joint attack but I think we should also look at article 10 um in the the presidential decree 91 991 and article 10 says that one aggression of one state which is a part of a military block or an alliance is considered as aggression of the entire block and I

think these two articles should be considered in conjunction so while we were talking about the H Russians hinting at the United States supporting Ukraine I think if we combine these articles uh it's essentially it's NATO it's not just the United States so we can't take NATO obviously out of the equation here the threat is a little less veiled than uh than maybe we thought Marina can we assume then the Us and other NATO nuclear Powers will now alter doctrines of their own well I I don't know if it's going to trigger any alteration in terms

of nuclear Doctrine but it's uh certainly um beginning of this escalation spiral where the deterrent posture is altered by one state might trigger something in other states and we have seen a similar um matters happen with um National Security strategies where the Russians would read The American National Security strategy and then um formulate their own based on what they read so it's um very possible that um nuclear doctrines will be adjusted well as I'm sure you can imagine all this nuclear rhetoric May many thought of course was consigned very much to the past as covering

a very long Shadow over Europe and indeed Russia with the mood in Moscow here's Julia shaa according to kremlin's press secretary Dimitra bcov under the new doctrine the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by the Ukrainian Army against Russia may lead to a nuclear response former Russian president Dimitri mvv threatens the West with World War III in case of any aggression against Russia other officials have also repeated Russia's Readiness to retaliate as the updated Doctrine gives more room for maneuver for most people here though the news wasn't unexpected as back in September President Vladimir Putin announced

that the Amendments of Russia's nuclear Doctrine would be updated and now the president has just signed the decree uh according to Associated Press the update of the Russian nuclear Doctrine was expected by the us too but the country sees no signs that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict so analysts say Russia's new nuclear Doctrine is not a plan for the use of nuclear weapons but a list of potential threats and conditions for the use of such weapons so they say the doctrine is intended mainly for an external audience for NATO

countries and their allies and Russia's foreign minister Serge Lov has also recommended that they read the new doctrine carefully reporting from Moscow Yul pavalova Al jazer for Inside Story Pavo coming back to you uh let's talk about how we got here what is it about the specific decision by the United States to allow Ukraine to use uh these longer range attack missiles uh within Russia itself uh they've obviously had the attacks before they've been able to use them on Ukrainian territory now Biden's greenlighted the use of them uh on the land mass of Russia itself

why does that now means Russia feels it needs to rewrite the rle rules of its nuclear protocol well before in the first years of this war most of the fighting was happening in the south in the territory of Ukraine uh in zaparas West in theet oblast and there when these missiles arrived the first attack was a very successful rather successful one against the Russian helicopter base on the shores of the Azo sea uh uh but uh now the focus of the fighting has shifted to the north to wway where the front line is on the

border or in like in the ksk region it's already inside Russia and the Ukraine so the ukrainians are not basically legally were not allowed to use the weapons they have been provided because fighting is already on not on Ukrainian soil but on Russian so so that put them at a tactical disadvantage that right now has been corrected since the battle most likely will be shifting there very seriously if the uh North Koreans join in it's going to be a big battle in kka and they'll be allowed to use the battlefield uh weapons and attack a

attack weapon it can't reach Moscow there in on the battlefield so this makes military sense Russia of course does not like it and say that this is a very dangerous move uh but and that Russia will be resorting to new deterrence uh but nuclear deterrence of course is not the military Factor since 45 it's a political tool and it will be used primarily as a political tool the Russian announcement has already cused some Discord within NATO and Europe uh where different NATO European members react differently is this a bigger threat or a smaller threat but

I believe the main uh Target of this announcement is the incoming president-elect Donald Trump who during his uh uh presidential campaign and his AE repeat it now was accusing the Biden administration of uh moving in direction of World War I and now this Russian announcement uh uh legally Ling the nuclear threshold gives uh the new president reelected president Trump uh the arguments to try and swiftly end this war on terms that Russia would consider more favorable right more on Trump a little bit later on in our discussion but Colin I want to remind our viewers

of something Russian's foreign minister Sergey Lov has reiterated specifically about the green lighting of these attack them strategic missiles for use on Russian territory he said without the Americans it's impossible to use these high-tech missiles can you explain he means by that how directly involved is the United States and by extension NATO well uh he's talking about the uh Logistics of using these missiles the targeting data that goes into it uh again these are fairly complex weapon systems um but it's really not a departure from what the United States and NATO allies have been doing

in Ukraine here too for uh it's just a different weapon this time that's got a longer range and the potential to do uh damage inside of uh you know Russian territory R Russia proper I think it's important to look at the broader geopolitical situation right now we're two months out from an Administration change and we've got both sides the ukrainians and the Russians doing everything they can to solidify uh you know territory uh you know in advance of what's likely going to be if there is a negotiated settlement a freezing of the of the battlefield

lines the Russians have been advancing uh ukrainians defensive lines have been brittle this is a response to that uh and and US involvement will continue sure very keen to know whether all of this uh jostling for Supremacy means a degree of Paving the way for a negotiated settlement to all of this but I I'm very very keen to know what the implications are in terms of European military support for Ukraine going forward whether or not this change of Doctrine by Russia will in any way force a rethink particularly when it comes to uh Marina France

or or the United Kingdom deciding whether to go ahead and Supply their Storm Shadow scalp missiles that are similar to the attacks I understand they have a slightly longer range will they now rethink doing that given Russia has clearly laid The Gauntlet here Marina well that's a very interesting question because uh we have just mentioned how Russian nuclear deterrent has lost its deterr power that being said we should also remember how long it took the Allies to approve certain packages of aid for certain am arment I would argue that it did still function in that

it slowed down the European support specifically for Ukraine and the United States and in in some cases the United Kingdom had to be leading powers to send specific weapon systems before others for followed suit such as um the tanks and so I think um because um Storm Shadow and scul missiles are already in Ukraine um maybe there will be a pause essentially but the whole question is how many can France and UK Supply Ukraine with to make a substantial difference on the battlefield and I think we should also recall what uh Putin said when he

was interviewed about the possibility of Ukraine using long range weapons inside Russian territory um he also mentioned the fact that it would need to be assessed on um Case by case scenario so how significant is the damage caused by those missiles that being said um it's Al it will be also difficult for Ukraine to deliver those missiles because unlike attack thems they are air to surface missiles therefore uh Ukraine would have to use fighter jets so I I'm not sure whether both Britain and the United Kingdom will reconsider supplying or even lifting restrictions on their

use given the fact that there is a limit of what they can achieve all right let's continue our discussion in a second because uh as youve as you've all alluded we are in a transition period we've got the Biden Administration on its way out we've got the Trump Administration on its way in Trump famously of course saying that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours here's the view from the White House with our correspondent kimy hin the White House is downplaying Russia's shift in nuclear Doctrine it is something the White House believes

has long been planned and is nothing more than an attempt to intimidate Ukraine using what the Biden Administration calls irresponsible and bellicose rhetoric that it believes will not improve Russia's security Now the United States View used the recent addition of 10,000 North Korean troops to Russia's war effort as a significant escalation still the White House says it has not seen any reason to adjust its own nuclear posture now president-elect Donald Trump has not commented directly on the shift in Russia's nuclear posture however his son Donald Trump Jr has accusing the Biden administration of trying to

start World War II in advance of his father's January inauguration Kimberly hkit Al jazer the White House Colin coming to you the Assumption of course is Trump could simply overturn Biden's latest move to uh bolster uh Ukraine by giving it the green light to use these weapons on Russian territory if that is the case would Russia then simply reverse this apparent escalation its tweaks to its Doctrine I'm not sure that it would reverse uh its Doctrine this is a pretty major step uh it may just be content that uh the fighting has ended or is

moving toward an end uh and Putin is is likely uh pretty optimistic that he's going to get what he wants I think there's other things worth mentioning here that kind of impress upon the sense of urgency uh with the Biden Administration these last two months the administration's also approved the use of anti-personnel landmines in Ukraine uh in an attempt to fortify defensive lines and the administration sees this really as an escalation um in response to the introduction of troops from North Korea in response to a lot of the Russian escalations here so I think you

know we we tend to look at um these kind of tactical developments back and forth but when we take a look back we take a step back we look strategically from the beginning February 2022 to the current the administration is looking at it along those lines we're now down to the wire um most signs indicate that the Trump Administration will attempt to force a negotiated settlement here it will likely favor Moscow pav what do we assume moscow's demands would be when it comes to a negotiated settlement given all of the saber rattling we've seen so

far from both sides uh well finding a a magic formula to stop the fighting won't be easy at all uh there's one thing on which both President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Vadim zinski agree fully both say they don't want a freeze of the present Frontline situation and it's hard to imagine what kind of formula can avoid some kind of form of freezing so uh there's uh the beginning negotiating positions of both sides seem rather incompatible they're miles and miles apart and finding something in between will require the capability as I don't know of Henry

Kissinger negotiating in 7374 after the end of the yur war and I don't see maybe who will be performing that uh uh uh bout of diplomacy so uh it's kind it will be very hard to find a compromise to stop just simply stop the fight Russia demands that Ukraine do this that agree to the annexation and take over of these territories and also uh become neutral and also disarm and Ukraine says you should withdraw from the territories I mean it's very hard to find the formula uh but there'll be there is an there'll be an

attempt there is a momentum to find some kind of formula since no one seems to be winning outright on the battlefield it's better to stop this conflict like in Korea in Kashmir and Cyprus and find some kind of way to continue as it is but without the Carnage so Marina the ultimate formula nuclear weapons and without the thread of nuclear weapons to be very very clear so Marina the magic formula is not very clear at the moment obviously the thread of nuclear weapons isn't particularly helpful by setting the right kind of tone when it comes

to diffusing things are we talking about escalating to deescalate well um that could be a possibility and what I think from the Russian perspective right now as they are waiting Donald Trump to enter the White House they are trying to take as much territory as they can under their control so that they can achieve at least uh partially their military uh SL political objectives in some cases in order to position themselves in in a more favorable negotiating position and uh certainly they will not seed um their position and well it remains to be seen what

Donald Trump does now changing the nuclear Doctrine we we should look at it also from the informational perspective and creating a smoke screen because I think uh while we're waiting for Donald Trump Russia will be responding to Nato but it will not be responding with nuclear weapons it will not be responding necessarily by military meets it will continue strikes on Ukraine within the framework of of what it calls military operation however the whole NATO is in danger but a different kind of danger such ASB Mar let me let me jump in the last few minutes

because it's interesting you raised an interesting point there about the kind of response that we may well see in in the interim because Colin a couple of new developments we need to take in firstly the US closing its KF Embassy citing quotes specific information of a potential significant air strike and also most recently these two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea connect Finland with Germany and Sweden and Lithuania apparently cut European government uh European government inspect to Russian sabotage uh Colin is Russia widening its War here to include NATO countries directly I think look Russia's

been at war with NATO from from the beginning they've uh conducted even before Ukraine uh operations in the United Kingdom poisoning dissidents in Berlin uh blowing up arms Depot in Czech Republic and Bulgaria so uh you know this is nothing new this Russian Behavior Uh it's likely to intensify over these next two months as Russians press uh what they see as their own Advantage uh but but again this is not something that that just started uh Putin would like us to believe that everything he does is in a response to what NATO is doing but

that's far from the truth uh this is an ongoing saga we can even go back to 2014 uh if we wanted to long before this uh I just want to make one point on the freezing of the of the current lines the Russians say they wouldn't be in favor of that but if it does happen they're still cleaving off a large chunk of a Sovereign Nation and so it's not like they're they're not getting anything out of this they're essentially taking over a large part of another country whether it's a demilitarized zone or recognized uh

through some kind of agreement as autonomous territory that that belongs to Russia all right well we have scratched the surface of this incredibly interesting uh Topic at a very very crucial time I'm hopefully it will be meaningful to all of our viewers who've been watching this discussion on Inside Story pavl felgenhauer Colin Clark Marina Miran uh thanks to all three of you for your time and thank you too for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website al.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com/ AJ insid story

you can also join the conversation on X our handled is at AJ insid story for me NE Barker and the whole te bye for now [Music]