Will the US have a Civil War with @WhatifAltHist's Rudyard Lynch

[Music] yo what going on dude you're rocking with division Pro should I should I record the episode like this what do you you feel free to what are you what are you seeing let's uh let's see what our guest uh responds to it um how are you using the Vision Pro I'm just looking at sanki diagrams right now and it's like Total Vision Pro can kind of see the the full the kind of The full flow of of everything through sanki diagram we for for those who don't know which is probably some percentage of listeners

do you want to explain the significance of the zanki diagram perhaps the the relevance uh at the moment well let me let me come come out of special reality and and back into real reality um I don't know it's a uh pretty esoteric chart that uh got some Play Over the the last Uh week or so yeah yeah someone someone had a birthday and and uh yeah we can just leave it at that I I just sanki diagram birthday I'm sure you can find uh your your fill of memes how about that yeah uh Turan

was lucky to be the official sponsor of the birthday and um yeah she's very gifted um at becoming the The Talk of the Town the sort of U the current thing as we might call it capturing the Z guys um well you know It's funny it's I actually think um Aya and and Brian Johnson and and there are just a few people who just they know how to kind of really snap everyone's attention on Twitter and then there's like the interesting thing is there's a whole bunch of like uh I don't know if you call

them reply guys but um it's like growing Daniel or whatever just they just like feed whatever that Meme is yeah there's like a whole they're the First level just like absolute fire tweets bangers that that then the you know the kind of like mids like myself then try to make the the second tier jokes but that that Cascades out there's a and then it's like a week later and you have some random person in your real life send you a text being like did you see this tweet and it's like H dude like you don't

even want to know how many tweets that I saw yeah it's a m supply chain growing Daniel's like the 4chan of Twit of Twitter basically yeah yeah or or he's a he's a taste maker right like he can see he can art happening on Twitter and then just really put it into the Mee the meme grinder yeah uh maybe we should have him on at some point um I would love I would love that I mean I think he's my f I think he's the funniest account yeah great because I mean there are other funny

accounts but we're not allowed to talk about those accounts because you Know even on a a podcast like this I think they're they're beyond polite company hello Hi how are you R I'm doing great for some of the audience who may be new to R rer is the owner of the very popular YouTube history account called what if alt like what if alt history that I think has over 600,000 subscribers at this point and and makes these fascinating history videos we we've started a podcast together called history 102 where reard comes on and Explains you

know War I the Vikings modern China the fall of Rome um but R your just to give an intro to our audience how would you describe yourself as a historian like if there are schools of of thought as it relates to the different kinds of historians or that you're like following the lineage of or when you differentiate from other historians how do you think of yourself first of all thank you for having me and it's been a pleasure working with Eric On season one of History 102 and to answer your question question I'm not a

credentialed person I'm a 22-year-old who's a College Dropout so um as I like to say I am a person with no credentials who's betting against God that you listen to at your own expense and the reason I say betting against God is a big part of what I do in my channel is I predict the future based off the patterns of history and I always say That there's a million ways to be wrong and only a handful to be right so you're betting against God and and my my model of history and for my YouTube

channel it is history but it's also a bunch of other things where I look at anthropology I look at uh civilizations I look at geopolitics and the underlying work I try to do is to figure out the patterns in history and the rules that different Historic societies maintain so that you can kind of understand how the human condition operates and how the world works and there is a myth that I only read books written before 1960 that's not true the vast majority of books I read are from the 21st century but I do read a

lot of older authors because I think the peak of History writing was around World War II because you were able to combine the vast scope histories of 150 Years ago with the anal data focus of recent histories and something where I'm very proud of my researching is civilizations where I look at the different world civilizations like Western Indian Chinese Etc and from that um what their strength and weaknesses are how they came into being um what their cycles of history have been and that sort of thing cool so rard I this is really random Eric

said we were gonna do this Podcast and I couldn't fall asleep one of these nights and I was on my YouTube feed did you do a a video on the Byzantine EMP Empire I've done a couple um I did one what if the so I did alternate history for seven years which is like what if the South won the Civil War what if the 9s won World War II I did a video explaining the byz not I did a video what if the Byzantine Empire never fell that was like four or five years ago and

I think I watched that This week which is really funny manaker and and then you're basically talking about like if they never lose to the Turks originally what happen yeah I was a child it's funny to see people go back to my alternate history work because that that's what I did for the first I've been doing YouTube for 10 years I I founded the YouTube channel on my 13th birthday um and so first seven years doing alterate history and then I had a career shift during Co what what what Was the career shift first of

all I love that video by the way like I think butine Empire is is um is a woefully underappreciated aged you know period of History um I was stuck at home during coed and I kind of made a calculation in high school that if I wanted to to succeed I had to succeed through being an entrepreneur or if I felt the traditional track it wouldn't work and I was stuck at home during Co during my Gap year and I thought I'm just going to Work on my channel and I started branching out other content like

the one that I do now I just found it much more rewarding and when I look at the alternate history versus what I do today it feels like a lot of fantasy authors start out writing fanfiction of other fantasy novels um 50 Shades is the easiest example of that where it's her as Twilight fanfiction then she became her own author and that's how I kind of feel at alternate history where I think Alternate history informed I'm really glad I did it because it gave me a lot of YouTube training and informed how I think about

the world where if you're constantly thinking about if you changed blank it's almost a scientific method of analysis to determine what the causal variables in history are and how would you describe the what what you do now uh as I said before it's uh people have had trouble explaining it where I've had a group of friends where They're like I've had a group of friends where they've said is what atist anthropology is it history is it sociology is it geopolitics and I sit at the Crux where of all those fields and something people like about

my show is that I can pull in Neuroscience or I can pull in biology or anthropology or family structure um but the thing that I know the best is history in a field um I I know a lot about anthropology but I think the thing that I do the most is um Look at again look at the patterns and history to determine uh what they mean Dan you're something of a of a self-taught at the very least uh you know hob hobby historian certainly before your time running farcaster in your you know couple years off

um certainly the best uh historian in Tech that I that I've come across maybe except for Mark and dreon or something thing um or maybe you know Antonio is also pretty deep in his own way H how How when you trace a little bit of your your journey or what kind of uh sort of school of thought that you've think you or lineage that you think you you've followed yeah I I would be uh hardpressed to say that you know one of the best amateur historians but I I I do enjoy history and I like

esoteric history right the more esoteric and and to your point about books before 1960 um you know the older the book and and you know definitely nothing in the 21st century in my view most of the time is is anything worth reading but um I I I think the thing that I and Eric I think we we talked about this a couple years ago when I first came on your podcast um I think I've always liked history but I think when I finally had some time off and I went really deep and you know read

something like 140 books or 150 books in in 18 months which for the first time in my life I just like Literally had nothing do so I could just kind of follow my intellectual interests is I I got really interested in the question of how does the modern world work and fundamentally I think a lot of that comes down to his understanding history and and what are the kind of big macro trends that have driven us to where we are today and then the longer the more you peel back the reason for why that Trend

ended up happening is you start to get a deeper understanding of The kind of like big macr trends in history and then um and then to your point rard I think the interdisciplinary approach makes it a lot more interesting right like just to kind of only view it through the lens of like the great men of history or you know history is just a history of Economics or energy or any of this kind of stuff is I think it it it's too simplistic it's a pretty dynamic system um I think actually one book that really

impacted me in terms of how I Think about history from not just the the people side of things but more the scientific side you know a lot of people talk about like gun gun jours and steel um which I think is actually you know gets a a lot of hate but the reality is the reason it gets a lot of hate is because it was really popular and and I think there's you know a lot of interesting stuff from that book it's Jared Diamond for those who who don't know it but um I actually think

David Reiches uh who we are and how we got here I've read the Tyler Cowen recommendation in 2018 and you know marginal Revolution and he he said at the time he's like this is probably one of the most important books of this year if not this decade and so I immediately bought it on Amazon and then I went and read it and I was at coinbase and I wasn't that busy and it was just eye openening to have such a you Know uh relatable like in the sense that I was a lay person in this

topic of like kind of like widescale genetic analysis but at the same time he could bring me along on the Journey of all the the the kind of research he had done and I think that kind of really clicked for me going into this time that I was off is and and rard I'd be curious how you described this but I think that there's this uh big gaping hole in in kind of like modern history writing Around like a systems approach to history in terms of like what are the main factors and how does history

work as a as a scientific thing rather than what I think most modern history is is very political or or it starts kind of like agenda I've I've read that book you described it's very good it's a book on um how we've Rewritten the history of the ancient world through genetics so I'd recommend that um also I'd recommend to you my video on Modern civilization Where it's one of my best videos in my opinion where I break down what I I see that there's a separate modern civilization independent from other civilizations I talk about how

that formed but it's pretty easy in my opinion to say why we don't do that it's because we don't want to know the the answer because if you start to look at history for rules on how to run Society then you have to see if you come up short and That's not something we really want to do where if you look at all of our society today it's based upon the abdication of social standards where we don't want to be assessed by any of them and if you start going back through history you'll start to

see unpleasant things and my favorite authors are people a lot of my favorite authors are people who do at those patterns where my favorite history writer is Amor durur who he was a French writer of the World War II era and he did like five brilliant intellectual jumps that I haven't seen any anywhere else so one thing Amar duraner did is he talked about how the relations between men and women have changed the course of history so look at different civilizations in world history how they gave men and women different rights and then that how

how that resulted in their rise and fall um then he also wrote a book of the civilizational Cycles comparing Rome to America and he said wrote writing in the 50s he thought America would gradually slide into caesarism like the fall of the Roman Republic and he also he explained Indian and Chinese civilization in the best way I've seen anywhere else and a brilliant book he also wrote was the eye of Shiva which was a way of integrating Eastern mysticism with modern science so I have tremendous respect for Amar rakor but there's like five or six

authors of that Time period who were trying to develop an a method to create a science of history and then starting with the Baby Boomers that was all shoved in the trash can basically and and why do you do you think it was just political or what what stopped that kind of progression I think um first of all as a society we just lost interest in history as a discipline where I I've made a video about this where if you compare Almost anything you'd look for or anything You' look for you'd find that the importance

of history and Society has collapsed precipitously and an easy example of this is look at Pop Culture references if you look at the most popular movies in the 1940s 50s before that the most popular books if you even if you watch light-hearted comedies you can tell from little details like they'll make references to Edward the Confessor or they'll talk about some Obscure Wild West figure and I was reading this book bullfinch's mythology and the book was written in the 19th century to be a guide so that newvo Americans could catch up on the knowledge of

the classics they need for society and this is something you get you can read books written in the 19th century and people say it was a casual dinner party and he mentioned Cadmus and Narcissus and I'm thinking that would never happen today and so from all these Details you can piece together that this was a much more historically literate society and I think what happened starting in the 60s is that we gained the idea that we didn't need we became such a wealthy society that I think we lost a concept that we had to have

external pressures to survive or we had to hold ourselves to standards and so there was this purposeful Amnesia against history it's funny it's funny you say That because I actually just saw Dune 2 recently and you know you read you read the book Dune and you know depends when you read it and how much context in history you have watching it in a very visual way um I I was just kind of thinking as I was leaving what percentage of the audience in in the US today understands how much of the the kind of the

the motifs in that movie yeah are are are just like overtly religious in in the sense of both like Christianity and Islam and and the fact that like like that just would fly over most people's heads because they're just not cultured in any amount of uh kind of like Western Civilization background which any educated person or or or kind of any person who was literate in in the late 19th century or early 20th century would have had that shared language right even even if you're not a you know kind of like a history nerd like

it just that was the Assumption whereas you know Today's culture is everyone can tell you who Taylor Swift is dating basically yes um driis Kel but yeah with Frank Herbert he he was actually a historian I think he got the training to be a professional historian and if he didn't he was something pretty close and so I like that you brought up Dune because I think a reason Dune is so popular and if you want to look at um Narnia Dune Conan the Barbarian and tolken they're all written by people who Are nearly history professors

tolken was a professor of anglo-saxon his same with Warhammer the the guys Foundation azimoff he starts with I was reading Gibbons fall Roman Empire and I thought I should make a Space Opera yeah and so these people were pulling from history and with Frank Herbert um he it's almost as if he read some anent author on the cycles of history because you look at Dune it has all these Contiguous factors over human history because when we when we stare into the future our f of what we want the world to be is often what we

believe the future to be more than the historic record if you look across the historic record there's always corruption there's always autocracy there's always scarcity there's always religion and no matter how wealthy the world's economy has gone up probably 30 times over since in the last century we still have all those Things and with Dune you can tell that it's a future which looks a lot like the history which makes it feel real and deep and like I'm going to throw some shade in the way it doesn't feel like that for Star Trek absolutely I

mean it it it is the universal components of of humanity and and then the Brilliance of of Dune from a Sci-Fi standpoint is he he removes the technology in the sense that he just leaves it about the humanity right yeah There are some some technological elements yeah and and it and and effectively it is about economics it's scarcity and religion which are are the two primary drivers of kind of major historical forces right hey we'll continue our interview in a moment after a word from our sponsors if you're a startup founder or executive running a

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be your your your belief that we might be headed towards another another civil war but I'll let you pick which of the predictions you you think might be most interesting for for a audience or most non obvious in some way so for people who are getting into my content I want You all to know that it's like the Marvel Cinematic Universe and that I have hundreds of hours of predictions on the future and so um I might say some crazy things but keep in mind there's a lot of backstory here I'm it's going to take

me some time to pull you into the cult um and one of them is that I believe America and I've made like six videos on this I think America will have a civil war or a revolution in the next year I I I said actually that I think It'll happen by the 2024 election and I say these things that you know I'm not a Charlotte um and if I I'm wrong I'm wrong and so that's prediction one we can go through these uh prediction two is I think we are in the process of experiencing Mouse

Utopia which was an experiment in the 60s where you dropped a bunch of mice in perfect conditions and then they kept breeding and then the mouse social structure completely broke down they stopped having kids the mouse Colony failed that's prediction two uh prediction three and this is something I've become a Meme Over is I think turkey will found a powerful Empire where I think turkey is the future power of the Middle East in prediction four is I think China is on the verge of Revolution so let me let me kind of react so I think

China you know verge of Revolution or or less stable than it is probably something I agree with and we Can discuss turkey actually as a power in the Middle East also kind of agree with that's a little bit Zan although I would I would say um it it is quite helpful to have uh the funding that the Saudis get from this like magical money source that comes from the ground um like Dune the the revolution in the United States or the Civil War in the United States that actually would be an interesting one to talk

about because the mous Topia I actually I think I Agree with in the sense that you know declining birth rates I mean Elon makes a big play of this on Twitter um it's this kind of like slow moving car crash that everyone knows is happening yeah yet you can't create an 18-year-old without 18 years so uh that that is that that's its own problem but maybe let's start with the first one it's good to know that we're mostly in agreement then um yeah I I I don't know if I agree on the the revolution point

but let let me Let me see if I can kind of maybe make a point I haven't seen your video so are are you kind of a big fan of this like 80e cycle like you know for turning one of them I have like five or six models that okay that come together at once I mean that in one fra term of phrasing not in the other term um okay I have like let's hear your argument for the revolution whether it's 2024 or 2025 but why it's eminent in in the near future this is like

two-thirds of the podcasts I go on but that means people like the content um so one of which is that we have a computer model that predicts revolutions and this has worked over 20 times in history and it predicts it based off three different factors that being income inequality um average wages and people competing for good jobs based off these three factors You can predict over 20 revolutions over history to the years they take place in and Peter turchin developed these computer models And so they predict the Russian Civil War the French Revolution the Roman

Civil Wars the Black Death the fall of um the 1600s war of religion the fall of room Etc and this is a theory where it goes back decades and it's originally stems from a theory David hacket Fisher made that you can use inflation rates to predict revolutions and this is one of the theories I use of many but the way this works is that if too much money is in the hands of a Small amount of people and everyone's competing for not a shrinking amount of good jobs it removes incentives for cooperation as the population

gets gets more desperate it remove it means the population has to have a war to survive and the last easy example of this in the western world was the French Revolution um other examples I spoke about before are like the 1600s the black death um and this is a a set pattern every 200 or so years you could go back as far as we Have records every 200 years in this happens um and all the variables line up now and they're just bleeping there's a bunch of factors you can use for example when the average

age of marriage gets above 28 they're going to have a revolution when height declines that's a a useful variable um Peter turchin the guy who does this he established about uh 20 different variables that correlate together over history and those variables are are bleeping off right now Um so that's one the second one you mentioned is the generational cycle uh and I haven't gotten that deep in that theory but it's in the back of my head where there's a generational idea that every 880 years the English speaking world is a conflict for example the last

one being World War II American Civil War American Revolution Glorious Revolution English Civil War Etc um so that's another one um and there's a third model which is based off economic Data where they I'm going to cut out a couple ones that are too like weird to explain but this third one is based off this is one of the worst books I've read in my life too it's based off economic data where they look at spending in stuff like the military and then from that there's a basically a major war every Century in the Western

World so last one's the world wars before that the Napoleonic Wars before that the uh the war of Spanish succession 30 Years War Etc and so that's what I'm looking at but also besides that something I'm looking at is that we are a population in which fighting AG men are massively dissatisfied where you have this entire generation of young men where um a third of men to 30 are virgins um Mass economic issues where genz men have 90% less spending Capital than the Baby Boomers in their 20s and we're at a point where over 90%

of new job entries are not going to white people and so you Built up this incentive structure where you have this large group of young large white men who don't have anything going on and if you look at the elite where the cultural Elite um if we're going to be frank the cultural Elite is uh Dei people who are based in every major institution of society whether the media government bureaucracy Academia the government the military the upper ranks of the military the government Bureau the government Bureaucracy um major corporations you have this Elite which doesn't

like the idea of using physical force or having standards and they think aggressive masculinity is toxic so what you're looking at is a pressure equilibrium between a dissatisfied group of well-armed aggressive young men who have nothing to lose and a ruling class which is scared of using physical Force how does this balance out well I mean the the challenge with That is in in Prior uh instance of this the technological difference between the kind of military forces or the state or the people in power versus the the average Joe I think were a little bit

more normalized and I think yes Americans have 400 million weapons 500 million weapons for you know 330 million people but if you look at if you look at the last 70 years um the military difference between um a regular for Forces versus Industrialized militaries has shrunk so America lost the Vietnam war France lost the Vietnam War uh America and Russia both lost in Afghanistan Hamas did better than we expected in Israel the ukrainians are beating the Russians or at least they've kept the Russians from conquering them and so we have a lengthy list of cases

in which the underdog military force has punched above its weight against a more strong industrialized power um and the point I'd also make is that a majority of the US military is Right leaning the upper brass of the military is left leaning but if you look at the enlisted men it's right leaning and I can't imagine if there is some kind of Revolution that the enlisted men in the military and the officers the in these SS of revolutions the people like the colonels and the sergeants are generally the ones that the enlisted men want to

fight for because they're identifiable and so in The French and the Russian revolutions as an example the military just sided with the rebels because they sympathized with them more but in in the case of the right-leaning you know enlisted man versus the the kind of top brass being leftwing what if if you have Trump get elected right and assuming they don't put him in prison maybe maybe that that's the Catalyst for all this is that they put him in prison even though he's Elected and and that's where you get something like um a real Insurrection

not not fake stuff like January 6 but the the thing I would say is isn't he the release valou so you you put Trump in office and he kind of doesn't do anything because the establishment is its own board but the reality is the the disaffected young man got to vote for Trump which is a big middle finger to The Establishment and on we go right I I think you know and and we were talking About I don't know I'm assuming you're familiar with ctis yarvin but you know his his kind of like big American

Caesar push but that to me seems more reasonable in the sense that like so when people say Civil War it's you know two armies lining up fighting they're making this dumb movie about the Civil War you know modern Civil War in in in the US that's coming out later this year um but I think of it as like a revolution could also just be a Political revolution in the sense of like a true American Caesar who comes in and really you know FDR style So within the establishment but but radically changes everything that to me

feels like a a more likely outcome of an American Revolution um but it's not like people are lining up and and fighting battles and Tulsa what I would say is that expecting the world is not reasonable and expecting the world to be reasonable is In fact unreasonable where if you look over human history we resort to violence very quickly um and it's it's scary to watch and what I would so first of all a disclosure I throw out is I can say these General Trends I don't know how they could play out maybe it won't

start next year maybe it'll start in five years I don't think that's true but it could happen um I don't and I work off probabilities here so I think there is a Probability the left could win under certain circumstances and this election is a massive toss card where this election will determine a lot and so the future as of now will be determined by choices that are made in the next year um that being said we're at a point where almost the entire establishment is leftwing and doesn't like Trump so I can't imagine that if

Trump was pushing them to change the system that the establishment would go with him and We're at the point now where the incentive structure for the Republican and the Democrat leaders is to start a civil war because that's easier for them to stay in power where um if you're a Republican leader your voters will be so enraged when they four years the Democrats then why not just start a civil war to keep staying office if you're a Democrat leader um why if if Trump's winning why not just start a civil war to stay in office

and my Opinion is there are a handful of gauges that we can't push much further the debts one of them where our debt is piling Higher and Higher and Higher and we're only barely passing new budgets every few months but if you're constantly rolling those dice it's going to turn over and you look at the French Revolution the English Civil War most of these conflicts the easiest thing is a to start it is a budget issue immigration is another where if Biden Wins um I America like I think Red State America there's a solid chance

they'd launch a revolution to not have more immigration and so there are all of these things where people I think most people don't realize how desperate the average American is and how so many people in this country want there to be a war and the thing is most people can be normies who don't want this to happen but if 3% of the population on each side wants there to be a war and they start It that will force everyone else's hands to do the war and I see these small factions of radicals already existing who

would push for that yeah I I find it hard to believe like so tech let's take the Texas situation where you know Abbott is writing this this sternly worded letter and saying we're going to take it to the courts but what what is he going to mobilize like Federal military troops that are Stationed in Texas or call back you know Texans to come and protect the state of Texas I I just don't it doesn't doesn't seem like that that that like logically plays out at least in the modern system I've done this debate like 10

times I've been a lot of these podcast and I always hit this argument that it doesn't seem right because our brains we assume that the future won't be like the past but that's what every era thinks and every era is wrong so you can't have an Extended period of peace and you look at the American Civil War people didn't think there' be a war um World War I people didn't think there'd be a War World War II people wouldn't think there'd be a war people always think it's not going to happen this time and it

eventually does yeah but it it part of it is also I just don't think that there's the allegiance to the place in the same way I mean I think part of the modern way of Living is you you move people all around the country and so yeah I'm a Texan but I'm living in in San Francisco working in Tech or I'm I'm a Democrat who happens to live in Austin because I'm a history Professor I I I think the the locality compared to something like the Civil War is is significantly different and I and I

think that the the willingness to die for a place doesn't feel like that is the national Consciousness now I think that basically The only thing left is people are willing to die for the country and it's a very small percentage of right like you know that fighting fighting for the country in World War II was a much more universalizing Force than than it is today and I I I think I I I T tend to set um side with with Curtis on this is that like basically you can't even get people to do any violence

in the streets for the most part and what they do is they just kind of sit on Twitter and That's where like trigger fingers to Twitter fingers I use this line from Drake all the time but the reality is like the amount of kinetic energy that is available to protest things today compared to the 60s I mean I think I read something in in want to say it was in like nixonland or or um the the follow-up book um where it was saying that something like there was like a bombing a day in the 70s

like for like a three or four year period the FBI was Responding to like a a mailbox bomb and it it was just the level of like kinetic energy that radical leftwing people had in the 70s relative to today was just significantly more so I'm curious how you think about that because I I think it's almost like the smartphone has kind of like taken away the will of most people in a low Society how do people have the energy for it like it depends what sub demographic you're in I think I find people tend to

Assort in like-minded groups so what you said about people around too much that's probably true of the people in your network but it's demographically a relatively small group of Americans where this is actually the era of American History when people move the least across state borders in their lives um and also for the English Civil War when at the start of the war everyone said we're way too uh we're way too pacified as a society England hadn't Had a major war uh at least a land war in over a century and so at the start

of the English War English Civil War everyone said people are too lazy to fight this and that's not what happened and the the thing is you need a small group of insane people to mobilize and because the normies don't mobilize right they don't really get a say and then the insane people conscript the normes so in the English Civil War they um they just randomly conscript guys off the barroom Floor or from towns and then the radicals would get the normies to fight and and um I do see these people all the time because I'm

stuck on right-wing Twitter and I just see it all the time and I see in both the right and the left because I'll GL Glimpse at leftwing Twitter most major maybe a majority of leftwing influencers have said that you need to use violence to fight the right vou a leftist influencer who hates me he said leftists need to start buying guns To fight against the right Jackson Hinkle said something similar and on right-wing Twitter there's this parallel of people I say blood lust is bad I say killing I I literally make tweets where I say

needlessly killing people is bad and people are like you're a loser and I'm thinking yeah and that is that criticism from the right or from the left or both oh from the right yeah okay but but these are People who are not doing any killing it's not like they they' they've kind of like been in the military and and you know these heroic like this is just you know it's it's the classic South Park meme of the guy who's like sitting there at his his computer you know playing World of Warcraft like I I I

I just don't think that the organizational energy exists it's like where where is the radical change that is happening in any level of society by Anybody it's just like slow moving idiocracy from like a woke Dei Borg of of federal government it's like there is no like radical revolution in any state whatsoever well that's my question for rard is who are the people who are going to be fighting is it these people on on I totally agree that people on Twitter will continue to hate each other and just like digitally fight every day and at

some point like you know there'll be like civilian access to like weapons or Something where they actually don't have to like fight in the streets or something they could just like fight from their computer and maybe that's that that will be you know what what we're talking about here but the people who are actually doing the fighting record is that the people on Twitter or is that sort of like poor white people are not on Twitter and poor black people are not on like who are the people who were going to be doing the fighting

when You look at these crises what occurs is that there's a flash point that people can't deal with World War I the arch Duke France Ferdinand dying um American Civil War Abraham Lincoln getting elected English Civil War not being able to pass a budget French Revolution not being able to pass a budget and so this tiny issue at an impractical moment demands one side give something the other side take and they just say we're not going to do that we hate you too Much and so the Civil Wars often start for intractable small reasons um

and then it just spirals out and so at the be people's mindsets change very rapidly in a civil war so this happens people become tribalistic and for every major war the englishspeaking world is done for the first six months they were unprepared that happened for the American Civil War it's happened for the English Civil War it happened for World War I World War II the American Revolution in every major english- speaking War we weren't ready when it started and then we had to spend the first six months preparing and so I see an entire generation

of young men who don't really have much going on and they'd be the ones fighting it's guys who can't get a good job they're not in a relationship they who are they fighting yeah like what are they doing so you're in Ohio you're one of these people are you hopping in car and Driving to DC like what what is the you taking it would be a series of triggers in which it's not the world we see today the series of triggers are something like um Step One the um the Republicans and Democrats can't pass a

budget then Texas says we back the Republicans Democrat says California says we back the Democrats there there's a split between States on which states support the other faction's budget um Texas then Texas National Guards or let's say Ohio National Guards then start skirmishing with New York National Guards you have this Skirmish one officer refuses to one officer escalates he invades New York there's um a political crisis at this point and then someone else escalates and now at this point we know that the state are split up they can't really do anything so over the next

six months the Republicans and Democrats both conscript young men inside their army and so in the same Manner where do you remember what our worldview was like before Co yeah we're we're like five steps more insane four years later imagine adding another let's say four years on top of that the processes of us getting more insane since Co just make that exponential or or it's a Whiskey Rebellion and the Federal comes in and crushes it because they have you know f-15s and they cruise missiles and and that's the end of the rebellion in Ohio Like

what i' say though is look at the look at Texas where 29 25 States supported Texas in 10 states supported Texas militarily so Texas did this and then 10 states said we will send troops to Texas to fight for Texas and this why didn't why didn't that why didn't that escalate anymore like that like what what what organiz ational capacity they actually have outside of doing effectively the Tweet which is what the letter is oh they have a tremendous Amount the American National Guards are one of the most advanced militaries in the world um like

you'd put you'd probably put Texas as National Guard in the top five or six militaries in the world um and so they don't they don't have any air assets they don't have cruise missiles like I feel like look at the Vietnam War look at Afghanistan you don't need that to win a war Afghanistan's Appalachia is twice the size of Afghanistan and that also Assumes the military will follow the centralized government which I don't think it would all do I think it would split or lean heavily right um but so but let let's play this out

so you you have like okay so Texas is now what independent they just they don't want to they for a separatist government in Austin this separatist government claims to be the main government the 25 stat which support Texas no one secedes they just have the one true Government but that's just federalism and and like as long as the federal government gets their taxes are you saying that they're not going to pay the taxes anymore no they say we are the one true government Washington DC are evildoers who are destroying the truth of American democracy thus

the provisional government is in Austin now then 25 States support this provisional government and what are What are the the congressman from Texas and what did the Senators from Texas say do they go home and they recognize that or do they realize that like their power lies in I think a couple normies are gonna cope about this and then as time passes the normies will lose the ability to cope I mean yeah I I I co happen so rapidly and you could be in retrospect oh my God the states wouldn't support the government's decision on

Co when Co happened it happened in a week we all fell into lock Stat yeah yeah but I guess what I'm trying to say is like so CO's a great example is like the states just decided to do their own thing but the reality is they all suckle at the te of the federal government they need that funding so they they they cannot operate without the federal funding structure that that is part of the FDR plan is but everyone is dependent on on the federal system like in terms of the federal budget the federal you

know Revenue collection the These red States need California taxes Dan let's de man the other side for it does seem plausible that red America and blue America will continue to cleav like continue to become kind of their own tribe that have less and less in common with each other as they continue to marry each other and have have kids and kind of create this parallel economy um and so 10 years from now 20 years from now does it seem to make sense that they might want to sort Of not have anything to do with the

other or like but the reality is everyone's rich in the United States even even like you know like the people who are poor majority of Americans so this is based off perceived income rather than actual income where uh a majority of Americans don't have ,000 doar for an emergency Bill most Americans are on the edge of of barely survive they're on the edge of bankruptcy and it doesn't matter if They're richer than Egypt because they're not comparing themselves to Egyptians but but the average American is always thinking that they're just one good break away from

making it big and that is fundamentally an American belief right so I I think I think that's always kind of been the case and and so I think that you know you can look at data and and this or that but the reality is I think like I don't know I I know plenty of Average Americans like and I don't think that life is that bad for them like could it be better sure but I I think most people want to keep their head down and and not and I don't think that the radical people

have that much organizational capacity nor do they have that much we have a bunch of statistics on this between um gen Z today has 90% less spending Capital than the Baby Boomers did in their 20s the cost of housing has Gone up 80% since Co um the cost of basic necessities has gone up 50% uh the cost of education's gone up 400% over the last couple decades and you look at I I look at that stuff the thing I look at the most is Wellness statistics and that I think that's the best proxy if you

look at how much sleep people are having what their weight is how often they get married how many kids they have I think that's a proxy for their mental state and what happens when a large part Of the population because most Americans the age of marriage is getting higher the kids they have is less is that on an evolutionary basis if people can't procreate they're going to start a war because we were designed to procreate and um it doesn't the political opinions of the normies generally don't matter in Civil Wars um and you look at

these conflicts what often happens is a tiny minority of insane people win the Bolsheviks were 3% of Russia's Population before this before the Russian Revolution the Jacobin were also 3% or less of French France's population the insane Puritans were 10% of England's population Before They seized control of England and a dictatorship so what happens is that let's say the 50% of normal people no one's like let's build the normal person identity let's let's have riots for normal people and so they kind of get shoved Along by these crazy people and so when you have Two

groups of crazy people all these normal people in between they're like I have to back my crazy people so that their crazy people don't don't uh seize power but in in all of those cases and and Martin Malia's uh book on this I think is the best treatment is it's all Elites versus Elites that start the conflict and then the normies and right crazy people are used as tools by those Elites I don't see there's no fracture from the elites even play it on TV go Out to Texas go out to Ohio rich people aren't

in conflict in the unit what about Elon imagine if Elon became president and you know as long as the McKenzie people are making money and like and the Goldman people are making money and and and the kind of like you know basically Rich Coastal Elites as long as they continue to make money whether they're Republican or Democrat most of them are Democrat you saw the I mean if Trump was As competent as Elon with with everything that they threw at Trump could you not I mean like they were making money during the Trump era but

people went ballistic right like people went legit insane like people like but the economy still keeps working and so like that that's the thing is what what incentive do the elites have to break the system so so there is no historical basis of the the masses revolting against the Elites it doesn't Work it's the elites when they fracture one group grabs the the convenient group and then overthrows the existing system people don't believe this but red State and blue State America of the exact same economic size so the coasts don't completely dominate the American economy

because Florida Texas uh even States like Pennsylvania where I grow up those are economically significant States and there is a sizable anti-left Elite which is how the Republican Party gets funding You go to you again you go to the states I described like you go to Dallas Dallas has a massive economy and it's almost all conservative similar with Miami Philadelphia's Elite I think leans a lot of his financial Elite Le leans right and these are not unimportant places but they send their kids to Harvard and Dartmouth and all of these woke institutions University of Texas

or university of uh I think that they're all all the rich people for the most Part like yes there are some exceptions they're all in one Big Blob and they yes they have certain political opinions one way or the other but they all go to the same dinner parties they all belong to the same clubs right Rich you there's in in the the models I've looked for this it's the top 10% who are the Elite and um what I would say is that you look at the French Revolution the aristocracy who got killed in the

French Revolution were the Top 2% of the population and it was being egged on by the merchant classes who um were also wealthy but they weren't part of the same Elite um and also you want to look at Elites the military um there there are lots of people in the military who would tilt right like off like Colonels sergeants even Admirals and Generals who haven't been replaced so there is a conservative Elite who uh could who doesn't who has an incentive To defect and what I'd also say is that if you're a young white man

what incentive do you have to not defect if you're a young white male Elite aspirant because the vast majority of new hires are not white men but young Elite white men still get jobs like like obviously they do depends what range of the elite you're talking the one% I'm talking the 10% yeah I guess I just go back to as like who who controls all the levers of power it's it's it's very small group I Don't think it's in the top 10% I think it's closer to the top 1% and I think as long as

those groups are in control even if they're right or left and they're all benefiting from the system I don't think the system gets rock you could have said that about France before their Revolution you could have said that at Russia before their Revolution but France is fundamentally a pro a fight between the the king and his you know derl X spending habits and and a like You know dying feudal system so it's still fundamentally an elite problem right they still Ked off the elite right but but that is that is in the throws of a

revolution after you already have a split it's the same thing with the English divided how come the Republicans and the Democrats are fighting each other over the budget so tightly that's two Elite coalitions fighting each other and I think that's Just made for TV drama like it's like Marie Taylor green showing up actual political issue um and if you why does it always get funded because the incentive is not to defect yet but they're constantly like you'd be insane to think the right and the left is a madeup struggle in American politics um and if

for the society you're describing that's Canada Canada is a country where there's a single coherent Elite and nothing like Trump has been seen in Canada um so you can compare Canada and America where Canada is what you're describing but in America the right and the left are constantly buting heads yeah but I I think Congress is a different thing than a than a national uh popularity contest which is what the president is and that that's why Trump manifests in the way Trump does at the national level but we despite the the kind of you know

people who are obstructionists on the right side in Congress it's still for the most part Kevin McCarthy is is the the Republican bulk in terms of you know their establishment it's Mitch McConnell right like yes they they they got some judges in there but the reality is they're all swamp creatures I think you've been projecting the social structure and TI technology ACR across the rest of the population a unified very small leftist Elite based on the coasts a population of transience politics doesn't really Matter it's an alliance in different Power this is a description of

the social structure of Technology not of the general public well it's it's a social structure of the elite and and that's what I'm there are multiple Elites Texas oil guys are an elite um there's you have a giant a bunch of different sub economy in America that people don't think about that are still incredibly important I I I don't doubt their importance I just think in terms Of how much influence they have over the actual American political establishment is the problem with all these revolutions is that the elite overestimated their power Visa the public that's

what the Russian Elite say say before their Revolution that's what the french Elite would say before their Revolution they would say the small Elite has total power thus we don't have to worry but they miscalculate it Yeah anyways let's um I know we only have so much time I'm curious if we want to talk about one of your other predictions sure how guys how long you guys want this to go for maybe let's do then you got like 15 more minutes or yeah works good for you guys I mean you guys should keep going if

if you want to keep going and I I'll just say it's always easier I really appreciate the prediction it's always easier to to SC like startups to say why a thing won't Happen then to you know go out on a limb and say why it could happen so let let me let me put mine out there I think I so I agree with that the 80e cycle thing is like a Rough Guide of like there's going to be some amount of change and I suspect that within the next few elections I I'm I'm more bullish

on the American system is going to continue to work uh partially because I just don't think any other country is thriving if there was like actually an ascendant Star I would actually say maybe maybe this is the end of the Empire I think I much more in the camp of um you know we are going to end up with some version of an American Caesar and and it's it's FDR so it might not be as dramatic as Crossing the Rubicon but I do think a fundamental shift of the American system by a trump-like populist who

is competent that is actually and it could be on the the left which would be very scary to me because I think like an AOC Or someone like that could could pull that out and and that actually if you get a left populist then I would actually believe you that you might have a little bit more of a a fracture but my sense is is probably going to be a right-wing populist um just given where the establishment is the power structure and I think that that right-wing populist is going to be as populist As Trump

but way Slicker in terms of the the kind of feel and he's gonna be able To actually totally overhaul the system what so so some people will think that is that is uh caesarism right like the end of the Republic and other people are going to be like you know maybe in the Curtis Camp of like wow this is pretty great we have Public Safety like we don't have some of these asinine policies we've cut the size of this huge Federal bureaucracy so maybe that's a little optimistic but that that's what I think we probably

so vake Ramaswami no absolutely not I was say Lil Xanax yeah exactly how do you react to that does that sound yeah I think I think that's generally right um what I'd say is that Trump proved something where Trump is like a hurricane who just smashed in he did his thing but Trump is not um Trump trump has certain shortcomings which the person who comes after Trump who fills his shoes could fill those Where um someone could be more again as you said more slick than Trump uh more polished more cunning um that person can

show up and just do really really well because there's that void that established by Trump and has been demonstrated to exist that being said I I think once you have the trial run of trump you could look back and think these are the things that would change yeah and I mean look you you have um if you actually want to really beat This analogy with you know dead horse type thing um you you have the the pompy before Caesar right so you you already have the change in the Roman system before you actually have the

one who shows up who then is killed and then you have the the unifying one the one that creates the actual piece and so my my view is we probably are going to see evolutionary versions of trump Beyond this this next fouryear period that are going to um just like Covid are going to get even more and more infectious within the population because they're going to hit that seam in the same way but they're actually going to have a level of competence potentially when they're in office because so much of it it's it's one thing

to get elected and I think the banon interview which I I don't know if you've seen this red yard there's a there I want to say it's like four hours of cutting or uncut interview of B uh Steve Bannon with Frontline so not necessarily the most um uh favorable a like you know interviewer but he just goes through the whole thing and and he the most interesting moment of this interview is when he talks about they didn't think they win the election they win the election and the immediate dissent of the entire Republican establishment to

just kind of remove this change engine and his frustration of saying this could have been you know It's like Bannon Steve Miller like not not the people that most people are excited about but the the idea is that there was a cohort of people that were early to Trump when he was the contrarian bet Peter teal bology potentially being the FDA chair like all of these things that could have happened in an alternate version of the Trump ad Administration instead he he kind of the dealmaker the the people pleaser that he is thought he was

going to be able to Integrate himself into the system and obviously the system you know across the board basically rejected him so I think revenge Trump might actually be different so I'm curious but I just don't think he has the competence from a managerial standpoint um and the trust in people like you know you could argue that Kushner is a competent person and and he's you know as close to being trusted as anyone but even then it's like Everyone knows it's kind of trump is shooting from the hip but the ability to radically overhaul the

the federal bureaucracy and fight that kind of entrenched set of interests I think requires a a Caesar or more importantly an Augustus like personality who who who deeply understands the system and his ability to manage it right this reminds me of the almor duror book I spoke it before the coming Caesars we're writing the 50s he said that America would Descend in the cism with a similar process to Rome and um I think the closest figure to Trump is thei brothers who um in Rome before right after Rome had become a great power and this

is right when when Rome descended into the civil wars in caesarism the Rome experienced a lot of very similar social issues to us today it was an intensely unequal Society it was very politically divided between two separate parties it was Rome was a Rel An superpower um and there was mass corporations that killed the Roman middle class as well as immigration and globalization which killed the Roman middle class and the gry brothers ran off the ideal let's basically make Rome great again let's rebuild the Roman middle class and then they um they did they went

off this platform they were very popular they got elected and then the leading Roman establishment tried to Remove them for saying they were trying to make themselves dictator and then assassinated the gry brothers and then the assassination of the groi brothers resulted in the the fall of the Roman Republic which took like 70 80 years which we spoke of before like pompy and Crassus and Caesar and gustus and that's why I've said it would not surprise me if Trump gets assassinated yeah I mean or or gets put in jail which is effectively the you Know

in in at least the modern political sense you know a Ticky case in Georgia taking the the duly elected president of the United States and and now we have some weird thing where he's president but he's sitting in a Georgia jails I mean it's just like you're asking for just chaos right and so yeah look I I I I I basically my my my view is very much I just don't think the average American is has the ktic energy that they did 50 years ago call blame low te Is what Eric said but I do

think we are in for a call it 10 to 20 year period of of political turbulence that on the other side of that I think there's a fundamental change in terms of like how American society especially at the federal level Works um so I I'm very much in that camp obviously if I knew exactly how it play out maybe let's segue and close on uh sort of you know the China topic because It's the biggest counterforce of the us obviously um re are you in the Zan camp that sort of implosion is basically inevitable you

don't think they can innovate their way out of it um whether it's AI or other sort of uh you know technologies that they maybe advanced in or could advance in that could help replace some of the human labor Z Zan's been a big influence in on me and I do believe he's right where I think China's going to have a revolution and I think China has far more serious social issues than America does in that uh Chinese youth unemployment is at 50% now and they have weird rules where you can't leave your hometown so I

think for all of us we're transients we don't live where we grew up that's technically illegal in China um in China they have mass aging where their birth rate is now a quarter of what it would have to be to be stable um their housing Market's absolutely insane a quarter of the en CH Entire Chinese econom is in the housing market so I think you're basically setting up a series of variables where the average Chinese person doesn't have an incentive to cooperate and they're going to have a revolution where the there's a large bracket the

largest young bracket of Chinese are people who are in their late 30s so they're not going to have K killed children they don't have the money to retire they're aging out of the Chinese labor market That's very young Center so I think this will result in Social panic and just even if it doesn't happen now how survive with a country that is four times as many people in their 80s as their 20s that just not going to work yeah I mean I'm I I think their demographic bomb is is unsolvable I think bology is probably

the most credible answer to it in that he would say that they would do this through Automation and that Japan kind of dealt With something similar um I I think to your point they have they have way bigger issues because they're a much poorer country than Japan was yeah in terms of at that point and I I think you can see it in how the CCP under G is just taking away bit by you know you kind of hit this peak and I think of it is actually manifested through a lot of this Chinese Tech

um and then the the kind of X flip where now it's like you're taking Basically who should be celebrated is these kind of global Heroes like people knew who Jack ma was right and you're disappearing them you're you're kind of pulling things back in and I think it's hard to just be an observer from from the United States not in China I don't speak Chinese I don't actually know anyone meaningfully who who lives in China but I think just observing the the kind of public change at at the CCP level to me feels like it

Is a a move towards more control and a move towards more control is usually in a society that they either believe that it's going to be less stable so therefore they need to put in more you know more control now because that that's the only way to kind of keep the system running I agree with that I think it's important the number one thing to look at is someone's actions in the Chinese government through their actions dictates that they're Desperate yeah I mean like everything right like what they haven't opened anything up to make it

easier they've only made it harder and and so what what could the revolution look like or what would China look like on the other side of that is there is there worlds in which there's still you know a major Global threat or does it implo basically my best guess is that in the coming American election crisis China attacks Taiwan this Invasion fails and then Through that it precipitates the collapse of the Mandate of Heaven which lets the populace Rebel because in Chinese culture there's this ideal that heaven or God establishes the emperor's right to rule

under certain conditions and then if they failed an invasion of Taiwan that would demonstrate the conditions have been broken and the Chinese can morally and legally remove the government yeah and whether or not they They're able to invade Taiwan I think my read of that is just look what happened with Russia and Ukraine and I think the difference is Russia has oil that it can sell even if it's kind of janky in terms of how they're doing it and the discount China doesn't China's China's doesn't have a commodity like the whole Chinese economy Works off

the fact that Walmart and all of these other kind of Western big corporates manufacture stuff in China yeah and so those corporates are Not going to be smuggling t-shirts out of China or whatever whatever product that they're doing and in that world that loss of of ability to play in the kind of WTO approved China like economy that they they've had for the last 20 years that that would be this most significant fall that's a great point I hadn't thought of it but you're definitely right right yeah so so so so fundamentally is just even

a and I mean Zan would say this but like I think just Even a you know you Lop off 25% of Chinese exports because you have some number of countries that are now in compliance I I think I think the whole system falls apart and and so you know I think the China China Bulls would say Okay China's domestic consumption could could be its own thing but the reality is just look at it it's dependent economy and this is I think I I've had a very like up and down relationship with zahan in terms of

I Think I have some um Y Man Amnesia in terms of like as soon as you started talking about Tesla and crypto and things that I know a lot about and he just off the like reservation I'm like okay is this guy completely right but I think one interesting point and you can just look at the primary sources is the US is the least export dependent economy in any of the major like economic countries like we we literally just don't export stuff that Is Meaningful outside of services and things that are like the highest part

of the food chain um and we're energy independent right and so I think the strongest parts of Zion are actually rooted in just like the simplest observations demographics like energy like what what are you actually dependent on to make your country work and I think that to me feels like the most fragile thing for China is like it is heavily reliant on energy Imports Despite them building 400 nuclear reactor plants or whatever like it's just like they still need fossil fuels and they are dependent on exports and so any version of them attacking Taiwan um

and and by the way I think this is like a decent chance that they attack Taiwan if if you just fundamentally believe that XI is now an actual dict Ator and seems a little kind of baddy in terms of like he's just making decisions and um yeah you know Hard to know how much of that is actually true but if you just put it as like a okay he's the next Stalin or ma or pick your whatever and and we have the historical records there is that you know absolute power like that really can make

you make a lot of weird decisions um and especially if you're surrounded by siop Fant that are going to just tell you what you want to hear but I think just like a very simple like import export China needs the world Economy and if they get cut off by the world economy as a result of the West just saying you're not getting to participate I think it's going to be because those are where the markets are right like I don't think China can turn around and do one belt one road and sell all the exports

they were previously selling to the west to Africa I'm sorry like the only thing you can sell to Africa is like cheap money and and railroads and the reality is they're not Consumer markets right yeah I think your Point's generally true where if you look at thinker the under the simplest assumptions they make tend to be the best and the more they extrapolate out the sillier it is so for example a lot of people won't believe this because we're politically different Carl Marx has had a giant intellectual influence on me and you could say Carl

Marx is one of the thinkers which has influenced my thought The most even though I'm the opposite side of the political spectrum because Karl Marx invented class analysis and class analysis is something I do all the time Sigman Freud to people hate Sigman Freud he invented the concept of the subconscious which we use all the time and so for a lot of these thinkers they have these Baseline Concepts that are brilliant that we use all the time but they've become such baselines that we don't reflect on how brilliant their Initial creation was this is this

is my thing with um the book sapiens which I think gets this terrible rap um I like the book actually which will yeah I think it's great and I think the concept of a myth which like we have another term for that Meme like like I live it every single day and like the idea that you know I work in cryptocurrency like why is Bitcoin valuable because other people believe that it has value right and and so like it's fascinating to me That there is just like an educated person just doesn't doesn't actually understand that

as a fundamental human concept because they think everything should have intrinsic value and it actually it it creates this thing where I think an otherwise intelligent person when they they just like cannot accept that humans are mimetic like that I now start to question I'm like what what other things do you actually just like don't fundamentally understandable the Way I I can explain this uh Ken Wilbur has a theory of levels of consciousness and people can't literally see beyond their level of Consciousness so um someone at level six they think everything's independ most of our

society especially California's at level six people at level six they can't think in statistical probabilities because they think everyone special they can't say someone of certain demographic does something more on a statistical basis You like I could meet someone of that group who's not like that people at level two they're incapable of thinking past their basic group and so if you go to a group in the Amazon and they'll you tell them hey if you do this someone in a different continent will die they'll think not my problem they're not part of my tribe um

and People level four that's the level uh like a lot social conservatives are at where it's I if it I I Will Follow My Religion and my Social code and anything beyond that is unimportant to me so people are stuck at different levels of consciousness and they just can't neurologically understand what goes beyond that level of Consciousness it reminds me of um I'm G to get this wrong it's it's something like a double conditional or something and it's it actually related to IQ and something basically say that again most I know what you're talking About

it's the idea imagine I didn't have breakfast and I was in a foreign country a majority I think a majority of the population is incapable of comprehending that or some staggering number might not be a majority but it's some really scary number well well this is the the point of that is like you or I are you know I think a lot of people listening to this podcast like can take that that double hypothetical and like construct the situation and There's a good number of people in the world a a lot of people in the

world that stop after the first one yeah and they just like can't they can't process them simultaneously in a completely abstract sense yes the theory I've developed is that people have cameras so a camera is how many perspectives you can see at once someone at One camera is I can only see how I see this two cameras I can see this and also how my ideology sees it camera three is you can Compare two views at once and so the amount of people who can see multiple cameras gets exponentially smaller where you get to a

genius who's at six cameras where um let's say sunzu sunzu was a strategic genius he could see at six cameras thus he wrote The Art of War because he could do all these different analyses and so when I look at people I think how many cameras do they have on this at once that's a great great frame thanks I I have to run this was an enjoyable conversation S I gave you a hard time on the part I mean part of enjoyment of the podcast is is hearing both of the sides of the perspective yeah

it's my job to get my balls busted when I need to this is this is a great discussion rer thanks so much for coming to the podcast and uh thank you so much for having check out this and history 102 all right thanks Dan thanks Roger