hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom guys it's been a long journey and this is one of those things that once it happens I almost don't even know what I'm going to do with myself but I want to follow through on this journey and and talk about something that's going to be something we need to watch
for if we see the move to 60% which has been the target for years now and and I've said for a long time that Bitcoin dominance should reach 60% in Q4 of 2024 and it sure as hell seems like we are on track to make that really important Milestone I also want to talk a little bit about some um you know some nuances to things some obvious questions that you might have and or at least questions that I think are are reasonable questions to ask me and I will try to talk about those as well
so let's go ahead and and and jump in here Bitcoin dominance is at 59% and it has been one hell of a rally guys if you look at at month I'm I'm excited what can I say but if you look at at monthly candles you know I've had a thesis on on altcoins for a long time and it's basically just you know let the Deion lose their money trading them while they put in lower highs against Bitcoin and they lose their Satoshi valuation to bitcoin and it's been such an easy strategy with high rates and
quantitative tightening and you might say well Ben they cut rates and I would say so what dominance went up for a couple months after the cut rates last cycle 2 so get that out of here right it did the same thing last and last cycle dominance didn't top until QE began and how can QE begin when you got you know when you when you still have when you still have the the economy still doing somewhat okay that doesn't mean it can't change right and maybe that change occurs after 60% Bitcoin dominance where the money printer
gets turned back on and then that's why dominance tops out but if you look at month L candles for Bitcoin dominance monthly hosi Candles there hasn't been a single red candle since November of 2022 not a single one yes if you look at regular Candles there have been but you can't expect a stochastic process to be up only right there's going to be periods where it goes back down to make people think that they are right right to make the the the faders of Bitcoin dominance to think that they are right and that their altcoin
is going to outperform bitcoin but I told you guys three years ago it's a three-year process and by the end of it most people will just be turned into a Bitcoin Maxi and that's when the alts finally bottom out against Bitcoin also furthermore altcoins don't always bottom out against Bitcoin at the same time that alts bottom out against the US dollar okay and and we're going to talk about two scenarios where and you're going to need to be prepared for either of them right and I'm going to I'm going to lay them out as cleanly
as I can so you know what to expect going into the end of the year but Bitcoin dominance at 59% is a big milestone there very well could be um a pullback at some point but I think it's going to go to 60% now one of the things that you have to ask yourself and if you're not asking yourself this then you're not you're not really thinking about it as critically as you probably should be right and and this is something that I'm I'm honestly struggling with myself and you know I I I want to
be honest with you I don't want to you know to hide anything I want to tell you when I'm wrong about something I want to tell you if I'm right and why I think I'm right and why I think I'll continue to be right but just because I've been right is no guarantee that dominance even goes to 60% wouldn't it be poetic if it topped at 59 now I don't think it's going to top at 59 I think it's more likely to overshoot 60 than to top it 59 but let's talk about two elephants in
in the room because there's two of them and we're going to address both of them the first elephant in the room is dominance is already at 59% but Ben you've been saying for years that all Bitcoin pairs will go to the range lows for years you've been saying 0.25 right they're oscillators at best altcoins are not oscillators at worst right don't tell me your altcoin is a lot better now than it was a year ago it's probably not right and the frankly lot of the altcoins that you could justify are better than they were a
year ago people don't even care about them because they're just too busy yell yoloing into mcoins which is going to present a problem for the cryptoverse in the future the fact that people keep focusing on the things they shouldn't focus on rather than the things that they should so if my view on all Bitcoin pairs is correct and they go to the range low which I don't know why they wouldn't right and you might say well what about stable coins I'm already subtracting out usct right and and you know everything else is basically just surrounding
a okay I mean yes there's usdc yes there's D yes there's a few other a few other stable coins but at the end of the day it it's going to more or less be a rounding error right it's not going to have a huge effect usdt has a much bigger effect now you could take out usdt to and if you want to do that just so you'll get off my back I can quickly do that but I'm just going to go right back to the this one but if you put in usdc as well you
get this chart which doesn't look that different right I mean it's at. 34 and the implication is that it would go down to 0.25 right so yes it's possible it's possible that all Bitcoin pairs don't go all the way down to 0.25 maybe they bought them out a little bit above that but you can't fault me for thinking they are oscillators at Best in fact you might say why at why not just say they're oscillators because this looks like they're they're oscillating up and down and up and down so why are they not just called
oscillators that's a good question and I'm glad you asked the reason right the reason is if I can find what it is I want to actually show you where's the parallel Channel stuff I don't remember where this stuff is I'm too excited right now um parallel channel the reason why they're oscillators at best is because is technically speaking technically speaking this is a low this is a high this is a lower low this is a lower high so again as I said in Prior Bitcoin dominance videos I am throwing the djins a bone by saying
that they're oscillators at best because I am choosing to ignore the high and the lower high and the low and the lower low I'm choosing to ignore that in favor of the DJ point of view the point of view that says you know what this is a high and this is a low and this is a deviation above the Range High and this is the deviation below the range Lev now individually a lot of altcoins do turn in to bleeders against Bitcoin but there's always new altcoins coming onto the scene a lot of which that
I'm completely out of touch with because I've just stuck with Bitcoin for the last several years but this is the question how in the world can Bitcoin dominance top at 60% it's already at 59 right how can it top at 60 if all Bitcoin pairs are going to drop another 32 to 33% right there's this and it's bothering me right it is but I don't really have you know I I don't really have the answer but I I will talk I I'll give you a couple of thoughts I'll give you a couple of thoughts one
possibility is that and I again I'm not sure how much I believe this at this point one possibility is that e Bitcoin bounces while all Bitcoin pairs drop doesn't really seem like the most likely outcome right but it is a possibility now if e if e Bitcoin bounced while all Bitcoin pairs dropped that could temper the the extent of the Bitcoin dominance rally right and and one reason why that could be the case is if you look at all Bitcoin pairs it looks like they're only just now starting to break down but if you look
at eth Bitcoin it already broke down long ago right it broke down long ago and it already went through its typical bottoming you know bottoming process where you know you have you have your sort of your your breakdown from the low and then dominance or sorry e Bitcoin then she theoretically should bottom within two to 3 months right here it was two months and then here it was 3 months and we're already in the third month right so there does exist a scenario where dominance only goes to 60 even on an ALT Bitcoin pair capitulation
because eth Bitcoin which I consider to be somewhat between Bitcoin and alts is going up during that time now is that the most likely outcome it it's a tough call especially considering that I think eth is going to go home in Q4 right to the lower logarithmic aggression TR line so I don't know how much faith I put in that I do know that last cycle though you know from a timebase perspective yes it was two to three months but it also did not bottom last cycle until the FED began to expand their balance sheet
they haven't started doing that yet and so perhaps it's still reasonable to assume that eth Bitcoin might go lower although I don't think it's going to go that much lower right I would say if 038 does not hold 036 if 036 does not hold worst case is 03 for the this cycle is what I would say so then you know H how do we get past this you know how how do we how do we rationalize this right how can it be that all Bitcoin pairs can drop 30 something perc and Bitcoin dominance tops at
60 well there's a chance it doesn't top at 60 there's a chance it goes beyond 60 on ITC premium about a year ago I put out a post it was called you know what keeps me up at night that's what it's called and and and in that video or sorry in that in that message um I almost wonder I almost wonder if I can if I can find it um let me see if I can find it uh here we go here we go this was this was something I posted to ITC premium back in
2023 I just want to share it with you so that we're all in the same page all right I I don't want there to be I'm not trying to pull the wool over your eyes or anything like that right but this is let me see if I can get a better oh I think it was just transparent on here let me see if I can change the uh here we go I just want to share this with you first for a minute this was uh this was shared in ITC premium a year ago in fact
this was when dominance was like 50% so you know what really keeps me up at night it is a 60% Target I've given on bitcoin dominance this was back when everyone was calling for the flipping and all this other garbage right but not because I think it cannot get there the reason it keeps me up is because I'm worried that I say alts are goodbye at 60% dominance and then we see dominance go higher to 70% now I don't think it's going to happen but that's what kept me up inight what if dominance is not
a bleeder what if it's an oscillator a bleeder puts in a lower low bit coin dominance topot all the money printing VC shills Etc did not put in a lower low so do I stay up at night wondering what alss I should recommend to you no I stay up worry that I'm going to be bullish and all at 60% dominance only for them to watch bit dominance go to 70% 60% is still my target as an investor it is important to consider all scenarios right for me it's been a long journey you know at 60%
I'm going to hang up my Bitcoin Maxi hat right I will h it up and I will see what happens I'll see what I'll see where dominance goes I cannot in good faith be a Bitcoin dominance bull for three years and say 60% is the Target only to change that Target as it arrives absolutely not absolutely not 60% is the target but could it overshoot the target absolutely is it going to go to 70% almost assuredly not right almost assured not and the reason why the reason why Bitcoin dominance can't will likely not go is
there's no I mean it can the reason why it likely will not go back up here is for the reasons people told you Bitcoin dominance wouldn't go to 60% they were right about the thought process but they underestimated how strong Bitcoin would be relative to the altcoin market right so their their their thought process is right right it's not wrong to think that stable coin dominance affects Bitcoin dominance it absolutely does if you look at at usdt dominance you can see that it's you know it's at 5.3% in 2019 when dominance was topping out usdt
dominance was only like 1% right and if dominance goes higher if usdt dominance goes to like 7% I mean that's that number right if usdt did not exist then Bitcoin dominance would be a lot higher right I mean it would it would be it would already be above 60% if you took out usdt out of the entire market cap of the asset class the dominance of everything else would increase right proportionally so if usdt dominance did not exist right and let's add on you know let's say all right well why don't we add on usdc
dominance usdc dominance right um and then we'll see where that gets us right that's already at almost 7% it's already almost at 7% so that's the reason that is the reason why it's unlikely to hit 70 but could it overshoot 60 could right it could um one thing to to think about here is is adding these up right adding them together and so what you're going to do what we should do is add up Bitcoin dominance plus usdd dominance and look at this guys right you know when the Fed was cutting last cycle Bitcoin dominance
plus USD dominance why don't we come up with a a nickname for it like let's call it flight to safety right because if you're if you're if you value your your portfolio in terms of US Dollars your flight to safety is usdt potentially I'm not saying it should be but and if you want to stay in crypto and if your flight to safety within crypto like if you value your portfolio in terms of satoshi's which is what I think is important Bitcoin dominance is important and sure enough this is breaking out basically around the same
time it broke out last cycle last cycle this is where the First Rate cut was this cycle this is where the First Rate cut is and you can see that it's breaking out at the exact same point in the cycle more or less more or less breaking out the exact same time so it makes sense to assume that it will continue to go higher why because last cycle this metric did not top until QE returned and that has not yet happened it has not happened yet and so it makes sense to assume they're going to
go higher they could go higher together now I know what you're thinking you're like well USC Dominus isn't it kind of going down right now well I mean it has been for the last couple of weeks but how do we know for sure how do we know for sure this isn't just a higher low on USD dominance and every single higher low everyone's getting all worked up over and they're yoloing into altcoins and saying well season is here and then Bitcoin gets a correction and and and ripy Al new it right and those those All
Season calls are premature for the 7,000th time over the last three years right how can is that a possibility that us dominance is just putting in a higher low again right is it possible could be right and if if Bitcoin if Bitcoin sneezes if Bitcoin drops at all right the altcoin market isn't going to like that right the altcoin market at this point is completely reliant on the idea that the top is not in right and the longer we go without putting in a new high the altcoin market gets more and more jittery right because
the altcoin market as I said if if if Bitcoin goes up the altcoin market can go up but the altcoin Market's not going to lead the the QT bull market right this is the mistake a lot of eth Maxi made thinking that eth outperformed Bitcoin in a bull market it outperforms Bitcoin in a QE bull market but in a QT bll Market you're better off with the King right and even last cycle you know when when Bitcoin USD was going up in 2019 people thought eth was going to outperform bitcoin then and it didn't right
Bitcoin went up eth went down same things happened this time right it's just that it's lasted longer because the rate hiking cycle lasted longer this is why understanding higher for longer was so important this is why you had to fade the people that told you the terminal rate was 3 and a half% and the only reason their altcoin went up was because Bitcoin went up if Bitcoin hadn't gone up their altcoin would be nowhere right now right these people are are are are living this dream of their altcoin leads the bull market when in reality
even the ones that have done the best that existed last cycle are still looking at lower highs against Bitcoin so is this trend going to change absolutely is it going to change soon probably my guess is that Bitcoin dominance will Top at approximately approximately 60% could it go a little bit higher yeah could it top out before 60 probably not right probably not if it did I would be extremely surprised and again the reason look at all Bitcoin pairs right I mean this is a a 30% drop I think that needs to happen why well
I've talked before of balance sheets of central banks right net liquidity you don't have to call it that you can call it whatever you want but there's no denying right there's no denying you well you can try to deny it but if anyone who's denied it for the last few years have been wrong if you overlay net liquidity onto the Bitcoin pair chart you will see they track each other pretty closely and when all Bitcoin pairs almost broke down a few months ago you can see that at the same time all the net liquidity was
breaking down right here you see that net liquidity was breaking down and all Bitcoin pairs look like they were about to break down in the summer of 2024 just like eth Bitcoin was but then what happened net liquidity bounced why did net liquidity bounce because the dollar was going down and net liquidity is a a it's a composition of balance sheets from different central banks and if you're going to convert that local currency to US Dollars and the dollar is going down that means those that that that is higher purchasing power but instead recently what
has happened after the First Rate cut well basically precisely what we said right it's going to Rally why did we say the dollar was going to Rally because the long end of the yield curve was going to Rally Because unless there was was an immediate sign that the economy was falling apart right unless there was an immediate sign that it was all going to crumble down then basically you have the dollar pricing in a recession and and rate cut with rate Cuts here and then you're like oh crap now you have a 50 base Point
rate cut and now all of a sudden you know the unemployment rate has dropped you know 2/10 and and and real GDP is still trending at 3% like what the what's the FED doing right so if all of a sudden recession fears get distilled at least temporarily and it could go on this like it go like this for months or quarters right this is not to happen immediately right but if if these fears are distilled right now which they have been there's no choice but for the long end of the yield curve to Rally right
there's no choice you you can't have you can't have it both ways right like you can't you can't have rate cuts and and and you know and and also expect the long of the yield curve to stay at 3.6% when when the real when the real economy is still tring at 3% real GDP you you can't right you can't have it both ways it's either the economies falling apart and these rate cuts are Justified therefore the market should be pricing in a recession and not the re acceleration of inflation or expansion or it goes back
up and when I said this I said look at the two-year it's testing this it's it's sweeping this low it's likely going to Rally back up to the bull market support band at the very least the 10year yield could easily rally to 4.3 to 4 .4% just to back test this and in fact the last two Octobers October 2022 and October 2023 the longer the UR rallied on up so why not right why not a lot of you guys like to compare this cycle to 2016 what what happened in 2016 in Q4 the dollar rally
by the way there was a recession scare back then too right and then we got a soft Landing it wasn't an inverted gu but there were still some places in the world that I I think did slip into a recession but you look at the dollar look at this weakness in August September and then a massive move by the dollar in Q4 massive move in Q4 and then it topped at the end of the year so you are right that Bitcoin dominance will likely turn around in 2025 I've been saying it forever but the final
rally by the dollar that c is net liquidity to drop is precisely what will take all Bitcoin pairs down to the range low right that's what'll take them down to 0.25 now I'll try to have some flexibility on 0.25 I mostly just care about dominance getting to 60% right if they're at 0 26.27 I'm not going to nickel and dime you on that okay especially if dominance is at that level and especially knowing that you know there is usdc dominance that's going to take a hit or or that's going to have some type of an
effect and that's already at 33 or something not 37 and the low was still 0.25 but this is still likely going to break down right and it's gon to it's probably going to go sub point three okay it's probably going to go you're likely going to see it in the point tws before too long now there's something that we got to talk about right and I I don't like talking about it um because honestly I mean again trying to be honest right I want people you know it's a struggle right I mean I know a
lot of people at the beginning this not like the Bitcoin dominance View and you know as a as an influencer for lack of better term you know people you know you want people to like you right you don't want people to not like you and so you it's easy to struggle with like you know what do I say what do I not say it's kind of like being a politician almost like how do I say stuff like how do I express my opinion without pissing people up um but there there's one thing that I keep
trying to wrap my head around right and I and I I I've struggled with it and I want to show you a perspective on the market that we must consider in Q4 because the bullish case is is is very clear to everyone for Q4 right and I I will just quickly I I'll show you what I'm talking about but I want to talk about the other view too right the bullish case is just look B stop over complicating things you know you look at having our Roi 2024 2020 2016 2012 every single time Bitcoin goes
up in Q4 of having year right stop over complicating it if you look at Roi from the bottom this is the time Bitcoin normally moves up this is why we said be prepared for a late October rally for Bitcoin this is when it normally moves up as as at this point in the cycle right this is when it goes up and right you could look at 2016 specifically when the dollar went up because some people think well how can Bitcoin go up if the Dollar's going up that's exactly what happened in 2016 right I mean
that is exactly what happened in 2016 the dollar went up in Q4 and so did Bitcoin you see I guess you don't see because I don't actually have some on there that's showing 2016 look dollar went up in Q4 so did Bitcoin but eth went down in Q4 of 2016 you see this eth went down Bitcoin was strong enough to overcome the dollar rally eth was not and Bitcoin dominance went up where I am struggling with this you know where I'm struggling with this is that seasonality is bullish right monetary policy view is bearish and
it's easy to dismiss the monetary policy view right crypto exists it's a cycle you know it it exists outside of this it doesn't matter about monetary policy but I will tell you this it was monetary policy right out of everything it was monetary policy that helped me stay the course on bitcoin dominance right because if you looked at Bitcoin dominance excluding stables in having years it normally doesn't do that good right I mean it normally bleeds until the third quarter and then maybe rallies up a little bit in Q4 but still not that impressive right
and this is why so many people went into 2024 saying that eth was going to outpour bitcoin they were calling for the flipping and those same people calling for the flipping back then are now calling for the demise of eth it's funny how the market has tricked them but look at 2024 it's completely different than the last two hav years completely different it's never stopped the dominance has never stopped going up normally at this point right Bitcoin dominance is 10 to 15% below the yearly open but this cycle it's 10 to 15% above the yearly
open why because of monetary policy right so a lot of bullish things for Bitcoin and I said late October is going to be the time where it should have a go at trying to take out the lower high structure right this would be the time if it's going to do it it's going to do it now it does not have time to wait around much longer and I I will tell you exactly why right so this is the lower high structure by Bitcoin it has not yet been taken out it's a it's basically the inverse
of the usct dominance remember the higher low trend line it's the exact same thing just reverse first the reason you could argue that altcoins are stuck in traffic on struggle Street and going down while Bitcoin goes up is because usdt dominance does not want to go below that trend line right it does not it wants to stay above you know its trend line and therefore it's not willing to go down so every incremental move up by Bitcoin is an incremental move lower by alts so that USD dominance can continue its trend from a Time based
perspective in 2019 this is the time where Bitcoin broke out right it's been about 30 weeks right this was how long it took back then about 29 30 weeks it's been that long from that perspective you could argue it's time right it's time but I just want to show you one other perspective and I I I can't get out of my head and I I I I mean look guys I've said it a million times if you haven't caught on by now I don't know what to tell you but monetary policy has not been a
good idea to fade this year it's not been a good idea to fade it and so I will show you this one more time just so just in case the moon boys are wrong again right in case they're promising you 100K and they're wrong again what do we look towards we look towards monetary policy and so what happened when the FED cut last cycle all I care about right what happened when the FED cut last cycle let's pretend like the timebase component isn't important for a minute the FED cut here and when the FED cut
Bitcoin rallied to a lower high right it rallied to a lower high and in that rally Bitcoin Domin went to its pin ultimate top the top before the final top right so it went here on that lower high rally you see what I'm saying right pin ultimate top lower high after the First Rate cut and then following that Bitcoin bled back down for three weeks and then it got one more rally one more green candle and on that green candle was the final Top by Bitcoin dominance you see it's clear as mud right I mean
you can see it it's not rocket science rate cut rally to a lower high pen ultimate Top by Bitcoin dominance right pen ultimate top you know second to last pullback one more little move by Bitcoin two months after the First Rate cut that would be November and then what happened the drop the scary drop to the 100 we moving average but remember Bitcoin dominance topped before Bitcoin durably fell below the bull market sport band it topped here right it topped the week of September second and then a few weeks later it fell to the 100
we moving average now do you want to see something really interesting right remember everything I just said if 60% is the target what if we're putting in our pin ultimate Top by Bitcoin dominance now and that's this rally to the lower high structure right what if that's where we are right now where it's a rally to the lower high structure following the First Rate cut everyone YOLO in again and then nothing comes of it and then we just find ourselves back you know back down to 60k in a couple weeks because that's what happened in
2019 after the First Rate cut and then you might get one more little rally in November following the next rate cut which is in like three weeks which would correspond to this and that rally might get you to the final Target of 60% Bitcoin dominance before the end of the year could play out right I mean it's not like it's impossible for it to play out and the scary part about that for a lot of people because again like and again I I want people to like me I do I don't really want to fade
Bitcoin in Q4 of a having year as I showed you earlier I mean it's dangerous to fade it and that's why I'll just stick with Bitcoin because hell guys you know if this view is right and Bitcoin does eventually go to the 100 we SMA like it did in 2019 a few months after R Cuts there's still a good chance it's going to take a while to get there right I mean you know the writing would probably be on the wall right like if if Bitcoin drops back to 60k in November and then it gets
a little bit of a rally and it's just like yeah it's nothing then yeah it's probably a good chance it's just going to fade back down I think a lot of people are waiting to see if that octob U seasonality really kicks in and can get Bitcoin to a higher high right and please distill distill my fear and get Bitcoin to a higher high the problem is that's what happened in 2020 Bitcoin went to a higher high and it still crashed but I don't really think you should look at the pandemic crash as something that
you know could have been predicted right so I look at it and I just think to myself you know everyone's calling for alt season on a Bitcoin dominance top there does exist a scenario where Bitcoin dominance tops and all season does not immediately begin last cycle when dominance topped right after that dominance went down but it was going down on a Bitcoin dump to the 100 we moving average the only reason Bitcoin dominance was going down was because Bitcoin was dropping faster than the altcoin market QE had arrived and rate Cuts had arrived there just
hadn't been enough rate cuts and there hadn't been enough QE so people were speculating on altcoins but because the demand for Bitcoin had reduced because people were taking on more risk the floor fell out Bitcoin fell to the 100 we moving average which would represent a soft Landing just look at this for a minute you have your your broadening descending wedge whatever the experts want to call it right let's hope Bitcoin can just break through I don't want to deal with this anymore right I I'm fine if if Bitcoin wants to just break out here
and you send Bitcoin dominance to 60% on a Bitcoin rally so be it right I have no problem my portfolio value going up that's fine with me but if it can't break out and usct dominance holds the line again and it sells off what would be really interesting is that it would if it sells off down here it would correspond to the 100 we moving average which is exactly where Bitcoin sold off to in October of 2019 but remember back or September of 2019 but then the rate cut was in July so September was two
months after the First Rate cut this time two months after the First Rate cut is not September it's November which is next month so if Bitcoin sells off into the end of the year then the 100 we moving average is the Target right now the reason why there are issues associated in my mind with Bitcoin breaking out while eth goes down why do I think eth is going to go down it's going to be on the quiz next week it's because in 20 26 and 2019 and the summer of 2024 every single of those all
those years that's when eth Bitcoin broke support right the eth Bitcoin chart if you think about it when did it break support it broke support in summer 2016 right well broke here and then it rally then it really broke again summer of 2019 and summer of 2024 right here April and then it it really broke in in August or so July August and every single year that eth Bitcoin broke down in the past ethusd then dropped until Q4 was over right until like December of that year right this is December of 2016 this is December
of 2019 and this could be December of 2024 which would be exactly where the lower logarithmic aggression trend line is why is it that Bitcoin put in a new all-time high and eth has not it's because Bitcoin already went home right Bitcoin went home long ago go right because it has its own regression Channel if I can find it right it went home it even went below home long ago so it already had the juice to go to alltime Highs but eth never went home right and I know people laugh about it but the reality
is it also never put in alltime high so I don't know why you're laughing right so if the base case is that eth Bitcoin breaking down sends eth home by December 2016 December 2019 and December 2024 how does eth go home does it go home on a Bitcoin rally does it go home on a Bitcoin dump in 2016 when Bitcoin rallied in Q4 Bitcoin was putting in higher highs all year long right it was putting in higher highs all year long in 2019 when Bitcoin dropped in Q4 it had already started the lower high structure
right the lower high and lower low structure and it dropped in Q4 rather than rally so when you think about it like that right when you think about that view of the market and you think well you know what happens if that plays out again right you have to wonder what has been taking eth down so far this year every single Low by eth was accompanied by a Bitcoin low right if you overlay Bitcoin USD right every low April low Bitcoin is dropping August low Bitcoin was dropping December low 2016 the monthly eth USD candles
are the same in 2024 as they were in 2016 same exact thing you count them I mean look look every Green candle January February March 2016 and 2024 green April red May green June July August red for all three or red for both um September was Green in both cases October November December Red October so far is Red if it's not red if it's slightly green it'll look more like 2019 where you get two little green candles here below the bullmark sport band and then it capitulates in November December and where does it capitulate home
you see how the similarities so it's it's really hard for me to to to to to see a scenario in my head where Bitcoin rallies in Q4 and and eth drops right it's really hard to imagine that although it shouldn't be because right now eth is down 1% this month and Bitcoin is up 5% so maybe it shouldn't be hard to Rally maybe it shouldn't be hard what I will say is this you don't know I don't know right we don't know what's going to happen there's no way to know if it's on a Bitcoin
Rally or a Bitcoin dump and I can't know if bitcoin's going to go to the 100 week SMA I can guarantee you guys I don't want you guys getting the pitchforks out if it breaks out to higher highs so I'm I'm I'm I'm telling you guys until dominance is at 60% you're still likely going to see some durable strength by Bitcoin it doesn't mean it can't go back to 60k and then bounce again back up to 64 like even if it goes to the 100 we moving average it would still bounce around here for at
least a few more weeks right and if I'm and if that view is wrong if if my interpretation of that is wrong and it just breaks out to a higher high here then you're you're better off holding you were still better off holding Bitcoin there just doesn't really exist a scenario in the short term where the altcoin market is a better play than Bitcoin that doesn't mean like tomorrow it can't go up right I mean certainly tomorrow maybe all Bitcoin pairs will go up but especially with dominance at 59% like if this is the penultimate
top for Bitcoin dominance by the way if if this is the penultimate top if dominance drops here let's say it drops back down to 58 58 and a half then that would raise the likelihood that dominance does top at 60% if it just plays out exactly like it did last cycle what's interesting by the way about that that view is if it does go back to the 100 we ese that would correspond to the yearly open right for Bitcoin um and it would also correspond to exactly where it dropped last cycle 2 months after the
First Rate cut to the 100 week moving average so you can't ignore it I'm just saying if Bitcoin is back down here at like you know around 40K by December it's exactly 2019 all over again it's exactly 2019 and instead of the time based comparison of breakout after 6 months you could still argue we're up in this phase where Bitcoin is still absorbing that altcoin liquidity and then the drop to the 100 we SMA just hasn't happened yet so Bitcoin dominance is the way to navigate the market right it it it it it basically allows
you to have exposure to something that gives you exposure to the upside but it also minimizes your downside risk because if Bitcoin does drop it'll still probably eventually recover right and if coin drops a lot then it will completely annihilate some of the altcoins it absolutely annihilates some of the altcoins so you got to be careful right you got to be careful with the altcoin market you know I've said before eth Bitcoin will probably bottom out between .3 to 0.4 so I'm looking for it to form that structural low um dot Bitcoin I don't know
what to say it just keeps on going lower link Bitcoin still you know you know basically new lows a Litecoin Bitcoin what else is new at a Bitcoin I got told you guys three years ago was going to go to 400 STS and they ate you know the cardano community dunked on me on Twitter and now it's at 51 stats um so Bitcoin what I think is going to happen I think it's going to follow eth Bitcoin I think it's G to think it's going to fall down here and then bounce back up in early
2025 is what I think I think it's going to do something like that that's why I think Soul bit will do avac Bitcoin is probably just going to bleed back down to the low and I've been saying that all year this pattern looks a lot like the dash Bitcoin pattern from a cycle far far away right dash Bitcoin sets the lows gets a big bounce in the having year here and then spends all year bleeding back down and then eventually takes it out and then gets a little bit of a rally in the post having
year but it's still just a lower high and the rest is history it's interesting how this is all played out so similarly right I mean like if you look at another reason why 60% was the target was because last cycle when dominance broke down you know the 618 was where Bitcoin dominance stopped this cycle the 618 corresponds to 60% and I told you guys back when it passed the 0.5 FIB that's what marked the midcycle top last cycle right when Bitcoin dominance passed the 0.5 fib and sure enough it marked it again this cycle Bitcoin
dominance passes 0.5 FIB here Bitcoin USD tops but then Bitcoin dominance continues to go up while Bitcoin USD puts in lower highs the same exact thing is happening this cycle right Bitcoin USD pass the Bitcoin dominance pass the 05 FIB Bitcoin USD tops but then Bitcoin dominance continues to go up while Bitcoin USD puts in lower highs it's the same thing as last cycle the same thing so my view is this my view is this just to be clear I think that Bitcoin dominance will Top at around 60% it's more likely to make it it's
more likely to overshoot 60 than not make it there because of how far all Bitcoin pairs are off their lows when Bitcoin dominance tops whether that's the bottom for all USD pairs or not will depend on when it happens if Bitcoin dominance hits 60% soon then it's more likely that Bitcoin dominance will then go down and then all USD pairs go down until the end of the year but if Bitcoin dominance gets a pullback at 59 and then slowly grinds back up to 60 between now and the end of the year then you could get
a situation like eth B Bitcoin where it bottoms out at the same time as eth USD like in in in um in 2016 ethusd capitulated in Q4 and eth Bitcoin found its final low in Q4 right and then the market went up the following year so then it corresponded to the bottom but last cycle in 2019 when eth Bitcoin bottomed Bitcoin USD was still not even it was only halfway through its downtrend right it was only halfway through its downtrend and it was also you know right before Bitcoin USD dropped to the 100 we moving
average so that's where we stand with Bitcoin dominance that's where we stand it's been a long journey I I I'm I'm happy for those that have tagged along I'm happy I'm really appreciative of those that you know didn't just give me a hard time about it for the last three years and troll me and and laugh at it and mock at you know mock it the reality is if you stuck with Bitcoin for the last 3 years you've been so much better off than chasing the latest and greatest altcoin if you did Chase altcoins and
you made a lot of money I congratulate you I tip my hat I'm not against you okay it's just that if you did it you're you're one out of a 100 probably because a lot of people probably just lost money trading altcoins and for every altcoin that I'll perform Bitcoin there's probably a hundred others that underperformed or went to zero okay if you look at dominance excluding Stables it just keeps on putting in higher highs and now is at 62.3 6% and really excluding Stables is probably the better way to look at it right then
you don't even have to worry about the stable coin dominance you just say well you know where could it go right I mean how high could it go so we will see we will see what happens to alt Bitcoin pairs I know that last cycle when all Bitcoin pairs broke down they started to move quickly and I don't know what's been taking them so long but we've been following this really really close for a while and one of the things I've said is that sometimes you get into a situation where you have a low that
the market doesn't really want to go below that low but eventually it does but then it keeps fighting to get back above it and then it requires the bull market support band to come down to that low to say you know what you shall not pass and this is where you get rejected and this is where you go to the range low and that's exactly what's happening right all Bitcoin pair is rejected here look at others Bitcoin 0.16 and I talked about this a long time right I mean last cycle they did the same thing
others Bitcoin dropped 60 rallied 60 dropped 60 after rate Cuts same thing this cycle right drop 60 rally 60 they've already Dro 40 everyone keeps thinking the lows in what if it's not right what if it drops below that I could be on board with others Bitcoin bottoming out here if dominance is at 60% but until that happens I'm still bearish on others Bitcoin because normally what happens is others Bitcoin sets a low rallies sweeps the low rallies to the bull market support band gets rejected goes down right low rally sweep the low rally to
the bullmark sport band get rejected go down and I pointed this out well in advance people yoed into alts the entire way down they laughed at me when they rallied back up to the 20we SMA and now they're getting rejected once again this isn't you know um telling people exactly what's going to happen and being lucky because I certainly don't get everything right and then it happening and and people acting like it was impossible to see coming but this is exactly what happened last cycle exactly the only difference the only difference between this cycle and
last cycle is the rate the the the hiking cycle took longer right this part of the cycle took longer so then it took longer over here too but it's the same thing it's the same thing it's just a larger version of it so my guess in the short term is that is that Bitcoin will still stay around these levels you know for a while longer um if the optimistic view is right if the year-to DAT Roi and having view seasonality is right it should break out soon okay if if it can't break out by November
then you got to ask yourself is it just going to play out like last cycle be a lower high send us to the 100 we SME by November that's what I'm looking out for I don't know yet I'll try to keep you guys updated but you know I feel very conflicted I feel very conflicted because normally for Q4 having years are bullish and cycle Roi looks bullish the only main thing that looks bearish is the monetary policy component and how the monetary policy component has helped with the being on the right side of Bitcoin dominance
for the last three years so I can't ignore it as much as I want to I can't ignore it I have to show you guys even if you hate me even if it's not true right even if Bitcoin rallies to a higher high and and it's not true I have to present it to you because if I don't you know if I don't and then the market follows 2019 into the 100 we SMA I I I want you guys to be prepared for that outcome and not be completely caught off guard so I mean it
could mean having a Bitcoin position then having some cash set aside in case that's where we go by the end of the year so that's where we stand um and and I I think I showed you guys I mean the whole net liquidity thing net liquidity is rolling over which is why all Bitcoin pairs should fall and I think the other issue is that rate one of the reasons I think alt Bitcoin pairs are struggling a lot recently is because a lot of the a lot of the aggressive rate cuts that were probably the reason
why alt Bitcoin pairs rallied in the first place like you know one of the main reasons that that others Bitcoin was rallying in the first place was probably because of the aggressive rate Cuts getting priced in but then now all of a sudden a lot of those aggressive rate Cuts have been priced out right rather than getting two more 50 basis point rate Cuts now the Market's just saying only two more 25 basis point rate Cuts Market doesn't like that all coins don't like that they need those rate Cuts last cycle it took 75 basis
points of rate cuts and QE out of a terminal rate of 250 to turn other to turn this around this cycle the terminal rate is 550 and so far we've only had 50 basis points of rate cuts and by the way when it turned around others Bitcoin was going up but others USD was dropping because Bitcoin was dropping it's just that others USD was dropping slower than Bitcoin it's got to be a view in your mind guys it's got to be a view in your mind it can't be something that you ignore let's get a
let's get let's get Bitcoin to a higher high and then say to hell with that theory but if that can't happen if that can't happen and and we're still we're still playing in the sandbox over here thinking we're here then I just want you to be prepared for that outcome and so far Bitcoin dominance supports that view it does so far so let's see what the end of the year holds I think we'll wrap it up there thank you guys for tuning in subscribe give the video a thumbs up again we do have ITC premium
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