No Bull?

hello followers of the 4-year Journey this is Bob Lucas here in New York City coming to you from Station 3 myc this is October 10th 2024 and this is yet another installment in the 4-year Journey series first of all I just want to say I hope you've all been well it's been a while since I recorded a video almost 4 months probably the longest um gap between videos and um a lot has happened and a lot hasn't happened in that period I just really haven't seen a need to come out with a new video since

that last one since the market has mostly trended sideways uh in this consolidating range so there just hasn't really been much in terms of a change in the outlook for for Bitcoin in that period and that's a reason for kind of this extended delay but there's a lot to talk about today and the main topic I have here is this question of no bull so do we have a bull market or not are we going to make all-time highs I sense there is now some fear creeping into the market the ETF has been out for

quite some time now we've also had the harving come and go and some of these uh narratives that we all kind of um got behind haven't panned out just yet and here we are in October of 24 with the stock market making all-time highs seemingly every week even gold making big all-time highs and Bitcoin continues to languish and altcoins uh pretty much dying a slow death the only thing out there that's really working is the really speculative meme coins so there's a lot of sort of um kind of fear out there and negative sentiments developed

and I just think that's kind of normal we had a pretty substantial move in the first period or the first half of this fouryear cycle and we're close to the all-time highs from the prior cycle still so today I want to talk about this idea that is there a bull market or not and then you know we want to talk about the fact that you know8 months consolidation is actually pretty bullish at the timing is right in the fouryear cycle sentiment is right it's been Rec set fundamentals macro I think they all look right the

question that many have is is this too obvious um and I don't think it is and and then I'm going to talk about this being right now right here the most bullish period in this fouryear cycle that's coming directly ahead so with that let's get into the video and just essentially I'm just going to sort of just free talk my way through this video and just put out some random thoughts on on kind of where we stand in this cycle how we should be approaching this and how we should be thinking about this overall as

always let's start with the monthly chart of Bitcoin right here where we're now sitting since the lows of the last cycle back in November 22 23 months in so just shy of a 24mon or 2year anniversary of this cycle which is exactly the point of the cycle when measured from one cycle low to the next cycle low that's due around the November December time frame of 2026 so right here sitting 23 months into a cycle there is quite a bit of fear that's sort of crept into this market after what was a very bullish very

frothy period um from the leaking of the ETF approval back in September October of 23 all the way to the peak of the March 2024 High I guess the biggest fear everybody seems to probably have is the fact that Bitcoin made the last all-time high back in March 7 months ago and for seven months we've been forming these lower highs on the monthly and also to some extent a lower low structure here as the market pick consolidates uh over time into this 2year anniversary Mark that that is I guess creating some fear because as usual

a lot of people entered the market way too late waiting for confirmation and then being locked out when the market went on this 1 2 3 4 5 S month move not giving many people an opportunity to buy as they were looking to buy on a dip which never really eventuated so I think as usual people get in late their average price is a lot higher and then uh they probably also rolled into a bunch of old coins in this later period that are now down 5060 70% and before you know it we're we're what

almost 2 years into a cycle that is still up around 3x off the lows and some people a lot of people are feeling as if they've actually haven't extracted any sort of value out of this cycle or in many cases have actually lost money over this period when you look at allcoin performance and so on um or used leverage of course at the wrong time and so on but this to me is quite normal from a cycle um structure perspective we had a very very strong initial phase of this cycle and in fact a lot

stronger than we've seen historically in any other cycle during this period up to the the peak in March we didn't see a typical 30% decline at any given point the biggest declines that we had were mostly time based and were only around about 20% from Peak to trough before making a new high uh that threw a lot of people off that made it difficult for people to get in and were caught offside but essentially this Market has been super bullish and super powerful all the way up to the March 24 highs and if I'm looking

at this just purely from a price and chart perspective the only thing the only way I interpret this really is that we've just had to consolidate and and completely reset sentiment in order to prepare for the next phase of this 4-year cycle but sitting here 23 months just around 20% or so of the all-time highs and of the last 4year cycle high back in 2021 this to me feels more primed for the next phase of the 4-year cycle than anything else also one interesting note and I've covered this in Prior videos we're sitting like I

said 23 months from the last cycle low but interestingly enough from the cycle low in December of 2018 to the first point where it made a new high it took 23 months to get to the price uh 4year cycle High to exceed that before going on of course and pushing the boundaries and pushing the alltime highs 23 months to get to that point in the cycle before that as well it also took I believe 23 months it actually took around 25 months just to pierce the highs that were set in the prior 4year cycle and

the same is true for the ccle before that which took I think around 22 months if I'm not mistaken to make and push to all-time highs this cycle did that in just 16 months much sooner and I think some of that a lot of that has probably to do with the ETF news which really was a surprise for the market overall when that came out and that forced buyers in earlier in the cycle than than normal pushing Bitcoin up to an all-time high exceeding the price cycle within just 16 months that though in turn I

believe has created this Dynamic where we now have to rotate a lot of coins a lot of whales a lot of Alzheimer's um are unlocking or even trapped Longs from the prior cycle that got in late here um have have had the have had the opportunity to exit and rotate while institutional players larger account players have been accumulating those coins in this period it's just a matter of time more than anything else and this period right here that we're seeing is a uh is a process where we end up erasing all that bullish sentiment that

brought us from the lows of the last foure cycle up to the highs to new all-time highs allowing a complete separation from one phase of the cycle to uh to this phase of the cycle that's uh that's sort of a the a midcycle decline so to call it that um again a cycle on this time frame is measured over four years the midpoint of a cycle is typically or is the half cycle point and we typically see some weakness into that and this is exactly what we're seeing so you can almost consider this as like

a 2-year cycle coming in now towards um if I take this candle right here sorry A little sloppy right there um and we look at this from a midcycle point then this becomes a 24mon cycle or a 2year cycle all Cycles are intertwined I just don't cover all those time frames but essentially you have a cycle uh within the cycle for example and I believe here what we what's happening is we're coming towards the end of this sort of first half of the cycle in preparation for the next phase of the cycle so before I

get into the um the path the projected path of where Bitcoin could be heading going forward from this point I like to always sort of highlight where this analysis could be wrong and um what the alternative might look like and there's always a possibility that um that bitcoin's topped that Bitcoin has has already shown us a high for the cycle I talked about the possibility of a big left translated cycle many times over the years and there is still a possibility although I believe it is pretty low of a possibility but there's always a possibility

that Bitcoin spent the first 16 months running up to exceed the prior highs and is now in a declining phase for the remainder of this cycle all the way into 2026 um I I know most of you are going to be like that's just crazy that's ridiculous and I don't really think it has a highly probable um possibility of of of being um what's going on here but it's something that is a possibility simple as that there's there's no way to deny it um stocks are at all-time high gold is are alltime high Bitcoin has

had an ETF behind it and yet it still hasn't in six seven months being able to push through or continue that Trend uh if the stock market for example we're heading into uh some recessionary based bare Market that could also weigh on this so this is not me trying to create some fud um I'm just pointing out the fact that in investing there's always an alternative there's always a worst case and um to not acknowledge that I think it's just being mostly just ignorant uh of of possibilities um and again that's why the goal of

this series really has been about getting us in on a 4year cycle early to be able to at least uh if a situation like that were unfold to still be able to walk out of it in the future having profited or done well um and uh and not lost a lot of capital that's really the goal of the series so by getting in uh this time around again around the 17,000 level cushions us from the absolute worst case possibility so for example uh you know a drop maybe a final thrust in a distribution kind of

pattern maybe to double top once more maybe make a slight High it doesn't really matter how it works out and then kind of a process you know and again it can it can come in in many different flavors but this type of process all the way down to the the next fouryear cycle low before moving and breaking alltime highs again I know this breaks power laws and it breaks stock to flows and all these other models out there um and and that's why I'm not seeing this is even a remotely preferred option for where Bitcoin

could be heading but it's something that is is is is definitely not a zero probability and how you place some like that would be difficult that's that's that's a fact it'll be difficult to play and we may have to huddle through something like this if it were to occur um if we were to get a move like this where uh let's say we test the lower $50,000 range one more time and then we make one big surge above 70 maybe 70 to 75 at least we would be able to probably draw a line around this

50,000 level which would be a place where if we were to go up and make a high and then the market say in the first quarter of 2025 or second quarter of 2025 revisits this lower level it has no business doing that if it breaks this consolidating pattern and gets back above the 70,000 Beyond if it gets back above there and then rolls back over and then takes out say the 50,000 level even below that even above that to be honest with you but if we were to take that out that would be a major

major red flag in the future if that would occur and I'd probably be looking to uh unwind or protect some of the account on that scenario so I want to spend three minutes covering that but really what I want to cover is a more bullish view a more positive view uh one that's rooted in essentially what Bitcoin has done since Inception the cycles that it's followed the trajectory that's followed when you zoom out right it's it's basically being one move from the lows on this path with this oscillation here in the Cycles to a peak

the Peaks um are obviously periods in in the cycle where the speculation the Mania goes to an extreme and we top out and we go through a one-year bare Market period and we've done that consistently now three times before this and so far in this four-year cycle I see nothing that has change has changed that trajectory nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is any different to the last Cycles so therefore I think from a probability perspective following the pattern that Bitcoin has given us over time also taking into

account that we still have massive inflows into Bitcoin mostly institutional players no new retail has come in I think it's all the same crypto folks that are still in this market but who's buying all this selling the German government sold uh FTX has imploded um there's been other big Sellers as well the US government for example big sellers in the market I'm talking billions of dollars yet um those coins are being absorbed and pric is down 20% from the highs or so 25% it's held up well the ETF is still there it's going to be

pushed through the independent advisor channels and so the timing is there the um the macro the fundamentals are there we of course had the harving some months back as well but more importantly I think what I'm most excited about is the fact that the third year of each of these foure Cycles is where the magic happens it's the first year uh that surprises everybody that makes up a lot of ground the second year seems like as we've seen the past seems like it stalls because it consolidates that first year of gains second year consolidates and

the third year is the Mania year and right now beginning next month we have the Mania year that is on on Deck so for that reason when I look at this 8mon consolidation sitting at the 10-month moving average a rising 10-month moving average with all those factors in play my only conclusion here is that there's a very high probability that within the next 90 days and this there's a reason why I say 90 days and not immediately but within the next 90 days I believe we're going to break out of this consolidating range we're going

to break to the upside and once we do that I don't think Bitcoin is going to look back I think we're going to go in a period to the highs of the cycle that may only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green Candles now from a price Target perspective everyone keeps asking what's your target what's your target I don't have a Target I don't know I don't think anybody knows right I don't want to talk super cycle I want to talk diminishing returns all of those are open all of those options a

massive massive Mania blowoff move which involves institutional and so on could see Bitcoin up to some pretty crazy numbers you know five 6 7x multiples from here even at the same time there is a diminishing returns right each cycle is not making as big a high as the prior cycle as the market cap grows it becomes a lot more difficult Okay so going up to the to the hundreds somewhere between 120 and 180 also seems very reasonable again the point mostly is though that we're focusing on time and sentiment so we're looking for a move

up in the range where prior Cycles have peaked which have actually been very consistent at around month 35 since the last low month 35 from the November 2022 low gets you to October of 20 25 and that basically gives us another 12 months to a expected or projected Peak now that's also not in stone that could come 3 four five months earlier we could get five six straight months up to a peak without looking back and that could be it it can come in many different flavors is my point but mostly the the point I'm

making here is that at some point probably by the summer to the end of the 2025 Peri period we're looking for Bitcoin to begin from this this base and leave this base right right where the all-time highs from the last cycle peaked and begin that final Manor extension and as it pushes through alltime highs one more time I don't think it's going to look back I think the sellers will be completely exhausted and sentiment will quickly turn turn bullish institutional money will flow very quickly and once Bitcoin is making all-time highs again the media will

get picked up and then we're going to get I think a lot of retail participation not just traditional um crypto retail that we've seen in Prior Cycles but kind of the Boomer retail as well in retirement accounts and uh those big shrub accounts for example I think you're going to see a lot of rotation into Bitcoin but only once Bitcoin makes a push to all-time highs again and Beyond so that's what I think is directly ahead of us I don't again see any reason why that should change even though I've pointed out kind of the

the bare case scenario if I had to guess I think it's 8515 it's 9010 it doesn't really matter the point is that I'm positioned for it uh the model portfolio is is certainly positioned for it there is no upside price Target we're looking mostly for a big extension into the into the six figure range for Bitcoin over a period in the 2025 year where um Bitcoin just doesn't look back and and as we saw right here from September to March it can cover a lot of ground in a very short period of time and during

this this phase right here we saw a 200% move in the phase back in December 2020 of course it was 500% again diminishing returns perhaps but anything is possible and it only takes five or six good months of solid green candles before Bitcoin before you know it is up into that again that mid 150 100 to 200,000 range pretty quickly and I believe that's what's ahead of us here in the coming months um what about the next two months or so and that's where it gets a little murky there's a lot of factors still at

play right now so I don't normally cover a weekly chart on this uh on these video series but I want to try and illustrate a point of what we're seeing here on the weekly time frame these Blue candles represent the weekly cycles and those are around 6 months apart generally the last big weekly cycle occurred back in July and since then we've actually exceeded to the downside below that and formed what's called a failed cycle right now we're showing a week four high of a 26 we average cycle they do come sooner um but the

point I'm trying to make here is these red candles are even shorter Cycles on a 60-day time frame and they've been forming lower highs all the way through so we certainly seeing this declining structure and the lows for each cycle have mostly been forming lower right now as you can see the structure is still in place it hasn't changed so in the intermediate time frame between these 26 we Cycles we are seeing lower highs and lower lows and it would be a little unusual for Bitcoin and I've been saying this for for some time on

my on my private service a little unusual for Bitcoin to push through and push make an all-time high given that the last weekly cycle occurred in July and has already formed in a failed State now we have a couple of interesting uh items coming up on the calendar and this is by no means in any way a political statement but um it looks as if you know Trump and the GOP have really been pushing they obviously have been pushing crypto and Bitcoin to the point where a lot of the community has seemed you know have

have hinged kind of their hopes on Trump being elected personally not a fan of that view I don't like my government or the government being involved I think there plenty of time for uh very favorable regulation in the future but I feel that um uh now is not the time for that but regardless the market is certainly going to respond very very favorably to a election whenn by the GOP purely because of the stance on crypto but that election is not coming up until the November 4th period coincidentally the next 60-day cycle low is due

around that week as well um and when you look at the cycle count on the weekly time frame that gets you to around 18 weeks in the last big weekly cycle low so it's my thinking at least at this point that this Market is either going to just Trend sideways into that period November and from that point forward possibly form a weekly cycle low so this would become an 18 we cycle low and end the the the the up phase of a 4-year cycle this move to the upside cannot happen or in theory from Cycle

Theory should not happen until a weekly cycle low occurs because these Cycles are intertwined so for me I think we still have around 3 to 4 weeks of some some trending sideways trending action it's looking right now as if it wants to maybe revisit some support down the mid 50,000 level but I'd be highly surprised if this Market can push into the 70s before the election here in the US um ultimately though again not to make this political in any way I don't think it matters one bit I don't think it matters who wins um

Bitcoin has has really existed throughout a period that governments have been pretty especially in the US have been very hostile towards it yet Bitcoin continues to make um all-time highs within each cycle and as you can see from the fouryear cycle paths continues to ignore that and if anything of course Bitcoin is an anti-government movement so uh there is an argument to be made that it the more bullish path is not a GOP win um that Bitcoin is still attacked and hardened and is the anti- kind of government money and not something embraced and accumulated

by governments uh why would why we would want the government to accumulate Bitcoin is beyond me personally anyway I don't want to cover it too much cuz I know many of you are probably going to go crazy in the comments because you can't keep away from political commentary so that's not political commentary it's really more about um how a market May respond here at coming up so a GOP loss may even result in a sharper decline for example temporarily before something like this were to happen the point that I'm really making here is that I

don't think we're going to see a lot of clarity and this move higher in Bitcoin until the November election once that concludes I get I have a sneaky sneaky suspicion that this Market's going to respond favorably in either result with maybe um a one or two week um bigger volatility event depending on who wins that election so keep that in mind Here My Views that I've been sharing on this video about the 4year cycle ahead is mostly to say that this consolidating period is soon coming to an end that this 8 to n month consolidation

that we're in is actually very bullish it's acted as a setting period and that is the kind of foundation that you need to launch the next phase uh and the Mania phase of a 4-year cycle so um wanted to keep it relatively short today because I don't want to complicate much of the analysis the analysis really hasn't changed throughout this four-year cycle it's behaving like other fouryear Cycles have I want to remind you of how important psychology uh the role psychology plays in hodling um I know you're tempted all the time especially when you see

others posting big winds it doesn't change cycle to cycle in Prior Cycles like in 17 it was icos and people posting massive gains in some really shitcoin was out there then there were nfts and then there were you know other coins and meme coins and so on there's always something people are speculating on in this space and it's it's our job here that are hodling to not waste our Capital diverting it from something like Bitcoin that is showing a much shorer path to a high to a four-year cycle High um to chase these these short-term

speculative gains I know some people make a lot of money in that but the fact is the majority of people end up just being liquidity uh excellent liquidity for these early uh degens I guess um to cash out on so don't be that don't be that liquidity for them um Bitcoin offers a very good reward okay it's not yes I know it's not the 100x stuff that some of the old coins and and meme coins and so on can if you get lucky uh can provide but from an investment standpoint uh Bitcoin still offers massive

gains by any metric and um don't forget one thing none of those me meme coins will continue Rising none of those altcoins would do well unless Bitcoin does well that is almost a guarantee in crypto nothing will do well unless Bitcoin does well but the reverse is not true if Bitcoin does well it doesn't guarantee everything else will do well so this is a offers a shorer path a with a good sizable return potential still ahead of us in following videos if we can break out of course we'll look and start to think more about

sentiment as it approaches higher levels we're still well short of that we still need to of course break out of this consolidating range get to New highs and then we can start entertaining the idea of where this Market might be topping out we're still a couple of videos at least short of that so in the meantime time it's all about being invested um having that position being locked in hyperfocused on this and um in it for the next phase of the 4-year cycle if you've been looking to add if you've been thinking to add of

course you want to keep your position size reasonable but like I think I said in the last video uh this range is certainly a good spot to be adding given what the potential lies are ah head in this foure cycle so wishing you all the very best um I'll get a video out probably before the end of the year in December hopefully at that point the video will be about the breakout of this of this range that would be nice and we'll talk about uh what that cycle or what that breakout might look like but

until then be well and wishing you uh a great period thanks very much