ladies and gentlemen take a listen to what Tom Lee just said last week's inflation and jobs data uh it's an interesting time to get some perspective from our next guest Tom Lee says be prepared for volatility Tom is uh managing partner and head of research at fund Strat Global advisers as well as a CNBC uh contributor would you say towards the last time you were on you talked about the Trump trade being pretty strong um a lot of things turn back reversed uh djt revers Bitcoin didn't hold the didn't move into the mid 7s got
in the low 70s I don't know whether the banks and other Trump trade change and all the betting markets certainly moderated late last week came back a little bit do you think if you have a change in a in your opinion on the election now um well it does seem like over the last four or five days the the election really narrowed when you look at betting markets or the polls and I know a lot of people don't necessarily Trust polls but I think the quality and the adjustments of the polls have made them more
accurate so I think it it is really a tossup and it's it's going to be a a very close election and something our clients are preparing for because we did a survey last week 76% don't think we'll have a winner declared election night and 43% roughly expected one week after so I think markets are kind of bracing for this period of uncertainty I think that's why many of the trades have reversed we've also heard about some of the trading houses that are not going to be putting any software updates in this week even um some
people who want to be here rather than overseas to make sure they're closer on the ground to see what happens too yeah so I think it's going to be a week where there's going to be a lot of worry um one thing I'm I was thinking about over the weekend though is I think the Market's fear of uncertainty will Peak before it's very likely it Peaks before the election outcome actually decided these signals that we've been looking at one of the things I don't know if you read about it and I think we talked about
May during commercial break last week one of the one of the things that's happened in the polls is the view that there's a lot more women going going to to vote than before but that these signals whether it be Bitcoin or whether it be djt stock or whether it be the betting markets may also all be off if this is true on the on the assumption that actually there are are is a very small percent perc of the people in the betting markets were women for example there's very small percentage of people who are women
who actually trade in Bitcoin not who own Bitcoin but who trade in Bitcoin uh very uh small group of women who are trading in djt stock what do you think of that uh I think there's some Credence to that just because we know like when you look at the Iowa polls it was really the senior Women Voters that changed a lot and uh you're right these markets can be narrow um and they're very responsive to to changes in liquidity and it is I think it's a very tight race I mean it's it's going to be
very close I think anyone who thinks that they know who's going to win is is is really playing with fate because I think it's very tight race yeah it's interesting from uh when you when polls close too because we've got I mean there's a couple here Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia are are all East Coast so you know if you have some definitive answers there also you know supposedly Virginia and New Hampshire are are closer than people uh in the haris camp would like so there there could be surprises early on just wonder how long
it takes when you have so many more people who have voted early or mail vote votes too those take longer to tally so I mean you might just by default be yeah yeah I I actually voted last week and it it was there were I actually had to wait there a lot of people I mean turnout is really what's going to swing this election and there's a number of states obviously that by the way get the early votes and then don't begin to tally them afterwards for all sorts of reasons that I I would raise
some real questions about why they're not telling them kind of a bummer when we see sometimes it's written into the state legisl I understand that but there's a there's a view among those who are cynical about that that they're only not they're not counting them until after so that and there are' seen there's other countries that know that know by the end of there's other countries that know mid you know that night and we've been they've been talking you know we're like a little bit envious looking around you should be able to count here's the
problem if they were counting them early and it was some secret because you wouldn't want them releasing what the vote count was early what if it got out I mean that's the problem with starting the count early I I have not heard that as the explanation for it and only red states that have done this so there's there's there's you could you can you can think whatever you want to think about that um so other than this yeah other than this other than the ele because the elections once that's some that's sort of what you
hear about Wall Street elections don't really matter anyway so if it is gridlock which we don't know but more likely I think the odds are on that too so you're still bullish yeah I'm I I I'm bullish only in the sense that election uncertainty has caused people to drisk and cash to sit on the sidelines but the fundamentals have been good earnings season's been very good the FED is doish and I I don't think it's going to matter who ends up in the White House even if it's split Congress or a sweep I think markets
do pretty well either way so it sets up for a really good rally into year end but when it starts in November is just what we don't know no so when you look at what we were talking about what Buffett's thinking with apple or what he's thinking with bank I mean that's that you take apple and a leading financial and that covers a pretty big range of of uh the market and he Andrew thinks he's building an arc could you really it wouldn't work there's too many species to bring on there with a I don't
I'm just saying he's building a a cash Arc cash an arc out of cash or something or is that what he's doing he may be doing something else I don't know yeah I mean I know part of it is he's anticipating capital gains taxes could change so he's taking those gains now but and he's not necessarily having a big cost of money cuz he's earning 5% but next year you know the cost of money is going to drop so he he'll have some should to deploy it Tom Lee says that he is bullish after the
election and to Tom Lee's credit those points that he mentioned earning season being strong so far even though the bar was set low yes earning season um is is is pretty good the economy is not great but it's not terrible the FED is looking at cutting rates two more times this year and multiple times next year there's a very strong bull case to be bullish after the election the big question question is do we have a contested election or do we not and this is really the last video before well I guess there'll be another
video coming out at at at 400 p.m. um tomorrow before the election but we're getting very close to our major event and there's going to be a lot of jittery jitteriness in in markets if that's even a word heading into tomorrow throughout the day tomorrow and the longer it takes to find out who the president is is going to be the more nervous people will get like we haven't seen anything yet if we have a contested election if we don't know the election results and and this is not really because an extra day or two
like does anything to the economy or you know has a structural impact on markets but what it does is tactically investors they don't put money to work when there's a lot of uncertainty so you could see just liquidity freeze up and when liquidity freezes up then stocks tend to fall that's that's kind of what you seen in August right we had basically a flash crash at one point August 5th the NASDAQ was down 7% a lot of that had to do with liquidity drying up just freezing up uh because of the Japanese carry trade but
obviously different scenarios we're talking about here same point being if liquidity freezes up VA canest it ction we have a major problem you'll notice from what Tom Lee said he he does sound like he's expecting downside at this point in the near term for markets especially if we do have a delayed results for who the president is going to be now from a technical perspective the S&P is sitting right at about that 50-day moving average in the past you don't tend to stop selling off at the 50-day moving average you tend Toop sell off further
than that you tend to sell off closer to that 100 day moving average and we're just sitting at that 50-day moving average now so there's definitely some room to see further weakness here and again if we don't know who the president is that's a pretty good reason to fall to that 100a or in a more you know worst case scenario fall to that 200a moving average which would be about a 10% correction from top to bottom I also agree with Tom Le's point you could see the peak of volatility um before the election results are
out right uh I I think you're not going to see more uncertainty after the election results unless there's some kind of sweep or something along those lines and again that looks unlikely so really no matter who wins the presidency markets there's good odds that markets are going to like that either way whoever it is so ladies and gentlemen let me know your thoughts about our markets heading into tomorrow after tomorrow what you think is going to happen because honestly your opinion is just as good as the polls or just as good as you know uh
the Trump trade itself like nobody knows what's going to happen so uh your opinions are very valuable I would love to hear them down below in the comment section you guys have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
