on the battlefield recognizing a situation and making a decision can save or end your life sometimes this realization takes time and sometimes it happens like a lightning strike North Korean soldiers in Russia are now realizing some things too raised under strict ideological pressure North Korean children consider it a great honor to fight and die for their leader these children grow up to become soldiers loyal to the Army and Kim Jong but this momentum was broken by the war in Ukraine 10,000 North Korean soldiers were deployed as Canon fodder for Vladimir Putin in fact Western and
South Korean intelligence emphasizes that Putin and Kim Jong will gradually increase the number of North Korean soldiers in the Russian army to 100,000 by 2025 considering that North Korea has more than 1 million soldiers it is very likely that Kim Jong will make such a move against the Technologies he receives from Russia but there are many complications between North Korean and Russian troops and the battlefield in Ukraine is even more difficult to live in than in North Korea initially it was thought that these soldiers would fight for Russia without objection the culture in which they
were brought up was the most important factor supporting this idea but the harsh realities of the front line have hit the North Koreans like a heavy slap in the face Ukraine's ground and air operations have shaken the Loyalty of Kim jong's solders with the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western missiles on Russian territory panic mode opened among North Korean soldiers witnessing the power of atacas and Storm Shadow North Korean soldiers are falling captive to the kingdom of fear but are these missiles as effective as the North Koreans fear considering the range of the
missiles it is quite normal for North Korean soldiers to panic and we know that these missiles have hit the headquarters of senior North Korean commanders and soldiers this attack has made the North Koreans face a harsh reality it is now known that soldiers will go to any lengths to save their lives they may Rebel desert or surrender to Ukraine Ukrainian intelligence has integrated the North Korean language into the I want to live project and developed special propaganda for them in addition North Korean deserter EXs soldiers living in South Korea volunteered to convince their North Korean
comrades to surrender or defect it is claimed that North Korean soldiers must surrender or Escape otherwise they will all perish whether 10,000 or hundreds of thousands of them the most remarkable claim came from a North Korean Defector the North Korean deserter said that all North Korean battalions will leave the front line when they attack Ukraine so what is the likelihood of these possibilities coming true can Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong prevent this from happening could Western missiles make such a difference to the ksk operation to find the answers to these questions we will travel to
the hottest spots of ksk first we will briefly examine the North Korean soldiers desertion cases and then then we will look at the pressure that the Ukrainian attacks on the North Koreans put on the North Korean troops in mid October North Koreans deserted from Russian war camps without ever being in combat in the case of October 15th 18 North Korean soldiers deserted and were captured by Russian FSB Forces 2 days later later when Ukraine targeted groups of North Korean soldiers for the first time a group of 40 North Koreans was destroyed by a kar's strike
only one North Korean Soldier survived and surrendered to the Ukrainian Army the subsequent attacks on ksk with aak AMS and Storm Shadow missiles shook the faith of the North Korean soldiers this was the flare that unleashed the panic mode of the North Korean troops the attacks on an underground main command center in ksk which eliminated several North Korean officers and 500 soldiers at once was the breaking point in its latest attack Ukraine illuminated The Kino air base in ksk it is known that Sue 25 fighter jets were previously based at this Air Base however it
is assumed that with Biden's permission the Russians moved these planes to another region nevertheless the Strategic importance of the Airfield has not been lost this Airfield was the closest to the front line in ksk oblast it was a high priority asset for President Putin as he sought to drive Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory and gain a stronger position at the negotiating table Kino Airbase was home to helicopters fighter jets and extensive air defense assets this made it a critical military hub for Russian operations in the ksk region Ukraine launched 12 atacms long range ground
launched missiles supplied by the United States Target in the base although the Russians moved their fighter jets elsewhere they chose to leave the S400 air defense systems and raidar at the airbase it was a costly mistake Ukraine successfully destroyed these critical systems significantly weakening Russia's defense capabilities in the ksk oblast the Russians kept quiet but evidence suggests that the famous S400 air defense systems successfully prevented at least some aicm from burning the place the placement of the S400 system and its Radars at the airbase had a strategic reason the Russians rely on their fighter jets
to conduct daily sorties over the front line in ksk maintaining some air superiority however the destruction of these Radars and air defense Assets Now leaves a gap in their coverage it allows Ukrainian fighter jets to Target Russian positions in ksk more effectively and drones to penetrate deeper into Russian airspace so the purpose of the attack on the Airfield was to neutralize it this is disastrous for Putin and Kim's 50,000 strong Army but very good news for the 20,000 Ukrainian fighters in the ksk region as you can see the aacms missiles have dealt serious blows to
the Russians but atacas are not Russia's only problem following the US the UK and France have also changed their policy towards the use of the missiles thus Ukraine started using Storm Shadow missiles against military Targets in Russia For the First Time The Storm Shadow attack targeted a North Korean General while a place believed to be the residence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin was also affected an underground Command Center was allegedly located on this property store storm Shadows reportedly destroyed this Command Center it was reported that the North Korean General who was targeted for the first
time was in this Command Center that was destroyed because it was known that the command center was used by Russian and North Korean commanders serving in the region in other words Kiev managed to hit both Russia and North Korea right in the heart with this incredible pinpoint attack on ksk Western officials have not revealed how the senior North Korean officer was wounded or identified pongyang had sent a senior Officer Colonel General Kim y Bach to Russia to oversee North Korea's coordination efforts with Russia it may have been General Kim Yang Buck who was wounded the
targeting of a North Korean General is not the only thing pongyang should be concerned about in the Storm Shadow missile attack in ksk there were also reports that several North Korean soldiers were killed in Ukrainian Storm Shadow strikes on the Marino military command center in ksk Ukrainian media reported that nearly 500 North Korean soldiers were killed in kiev's missile strike on the ksk region in Western Russia this is the highest number of North Korean casualties in a single attack so far it seems that the ksk region is no longer safe for the North Koreans the
psychology of ordinary North Korean soldiers is also undermined by the fact that even senior commanders have been harmed in the attacks we already know that North Korean soldiers do not want to participate in this war and are deserting the recent Storm Shadow attack could lead to more desertions a soldier who defected from North Korea also says that desertions will happen hung Lee who served as a soldier in the Kim Army in the early 2000s says that soldiers in Russia will try to flee the war in Ukraine from the very beginning Lee believes that the soldiers
are not ready for the front line and will be used as human Shields by Russian soldiers if you look at the photos and videos of North Korean soldiers in Russia they don't look like the best trained Special Forces soldiers they just look like soldiers coming out during training they didn't look very fit and they looked like ordinary soldiers who had just recruited during training one of the reasons for the desertions is the behavior of the Russian soldiers towards the North Koreans because Russian soldiers do not respect them as fellow combatants so North Korean soldiers in
Russia will feel uneasy when faced with extreme pain and fear of death therefore we predict that they are very likely to surrender during the conflict try to escape and even seek Asylum so where can defecting North Korean soldiers go of course like Russian defectors North Korean soldiers can reach Ukraine Ukraine I want to live project welcomes North Koreans as well the I want to live hotline was quick to launch a social media appeal in Korean more than a month ago those who surrender to Ukrainian forces are promised shelter hot meals and medical care for those
in need it doesn't matter how many troops Pyongyang sends to help Russia it doesn't matter in which direction Ukrainian prisoner of war camps are ready to receive soldiers of all nationalities religions and ideological views the project spokesperson said that every fighter who reaches the hotline remains in constant contact a special evacuation plan is designed taking into account weather conditions terrain and where the soldier is deployed along the hundreds of miles of Front Line the spokesman added but can Kim Jong and Vladimir Putin prevent desertions in total more than 18,000 soldiers in moscow's Army have left
the service without authorization the Russian leader has not even been able to prevent the desertion of his own soldiers in North Korea it is impossible to imagine how tightly controlled Society is deploying large numbers of troops abroad is risky for Kim Jong-un who oversees a totalitarian state that rarely lets people out but the rewards for cooperating with Russia are great North Korea operates a complex social hierarchy in which citizens are monitored and classified according to perceived loyalty it is often inherited from the actions of parents and even grandparents and is effectively described as a form
of cast system those classified as the most loyal in North Korea may be army officers we speculate that those sent to help Russia were probably accompanied by officials from the ruling Korean Workers Party so this suggests that the soldiers are under constant surveillance every detail is under surveillance from their alcohol consumption to whether they send things to their families that they can't find in North Korea this minimizes the possibility of North Korean soldiers deserting moreover North Korea believes in generational punishment this means that if a soldier deserts not only the soldier himself but also his
entire family is subject to severe penal sanctions for Life North Korean troops have had their share of Ukrainian attacks in this context the combined Ukrainian offensive that took place the other day virtually wiped the North Koreans off the front line so how did this attack take place fpv drone pilots from the 414th unmanned attack Aviation systems regimen mahur Brigade 95th Air Assault Brigade 36th separate Marine Brigade First tank Brigade and 17th tank Brigade conducted a joint offensive operation the operation took Place Southeast of the village of cremano kineski District the North Korean troops were outnumbered
which made it clear that they were not Russian soldiers Russian troops usually move in smaller formations and stay close to tree lines to reduced their chances of being hit by Ukrainian Firepower the North Korean troops on the other hand were moving in the open they wanted to show that they were not afraid of the Ukrainian guns right above them but Ukrainian weapons proved that this fearlessness was misplaced footage of the attack was released to the press the footage shows convoys of North Korean soldiers on foot being attacked with cluster artillery and ammunition North Koreans were
defeated using fpv drones at least 30 North Korean soldiers were eliminated in the attack while many others were wounded in addition according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments at least three North Korean soldiers disappeared near the village of kurilova due to these losses it was necessary to reinforce the assault groups with new Personnel from the 94th separate Brigade of the North Korean army to continue combat operations in the ksk region this was an important turning point after months of speculation about what role pyongyang's troops would play in the war further details are emerging that reinforce this turning
point they suggest that North Korean troops may have lost as much as 4% of their strength in a single battle at the Eastern end of the 250 square mile Salient that Ukrainian forces formed at ksk in August North Korean infantry attacked in three waves in the open terrain outside the village of plov eventually driving out the 100 Ukrainian soldiers holding the village the attack may have involved more than 500 North Koreans reportedly from the 92nd and 94th separate Special Operations brigades of the democratic People's Republic of Korea however half of the soldiers involved in the
attack are thought to have been eliminated the North Koreans attacked in broad daylight walking over mines under the surveillance of Ukrainian drones and under drone and artillery fire according to the Defenders of the pleo settlement the North Korean soldiers attacked on mass or rather in large numbers Ukrainian Fighters repelled the first wave of attacks but then came the second and third wave of soldiers after the surviving ukrainians retreated Westward and the smoke cleared trucks carried potentially hundreds of lifeless and wounded North Koreans they represented a significant percentage of the North Korean 11th Army Corps of
about 12,000 men deployed north of the cors Salient for all their losses around pleo the North Koreans at least gained some territory the results on the other side of the Salient may have been less encouraging for the pongyang army fighting its first major battle in decades the Ukrainian 17th heavy mechanized Brigade which held the line at the Western end of the Salient claimed to have inflicted significant losses on its opponents presumably including the North Koreans the Brigade does not appear to have lost much territory according to Andre kovalenko head of the Ukrainian center for countering
disinformation the massive attacks by North Korean infantry are part of the Russian Comm Ander plan the Russians are counting on numbers kovalenko wrote it is unclear how long the North Korean 11th Army Corp can sustain its strategy of attrition attacks it is likely that the core buried or hospitalized one out of every 25 soldiers under its command last weekend the Russian narrative however paints a different picture the Russian telegram Channel romanof light claimed that North Korean troops la launched a hurricane-like attack on the village of pleo in ksk killing more than 300 Kiev Soldiers the
channel said the incident took place after North Korean forces wiped out the soldiers and captured the village in less than 2 hours taking no prisoners the Ukrainian defense Ministry has not yet commented on the reported attack former Ukrainian MP and pro-russian politician Oleg tof confirmed the news but did not provide further details all this shows that the ksk conflict has not lost its intensity despite its partnership with North Korea Russia is not achieving the desired success in the war the use of North Koreans as Canon fodder in the war adds to Kim jong-un's woes already
Jong-un has been in trouble for a long time his ruthless and arbitrary Behavior has offended even many of his Elites placing a heavy burden on their already difficult lives as they face inadequate food Medical Care energy supplies and consumer goods the videos books and pictures that North Koreans have obtained of life in South Korea have left them wondering why their fellow Koreans are living a better life than they are although Kim has carefully tried to prevent such outside information from leaking into the north some leaks inevitably occur the resulting Vision makes the Kim regime look
like a failure even Kim himself has admitted this to counter external information Kim has decided to implement the two Korea Theory during the transition period between 2023 and 2024 Kim has renounced the peaceful unification of the koreas and now calls South Korea a hostile foreign enemy Kim seeks to isolate his people from the outside world arguing that any foreign information especially from the south is enemy propaganda that should not be consumed according to US ambassador Julie Turner Kim took this action as a desperate attempt to gain control of the internal information environment Kim is already
facing growing internal instability and is apparently desperately trying to maintain control this fundamental shift in the North Korean perspective is changing its goals and strategy Kim has taken a series of action that he hopes will counter growing internal instability but in doing so he is taking some serious risks what is Kim afraid of in recent years it has become very clear that Kim Jong-un is very afraid of outside information leaking into North Korea at one point Kim suggested that K-pop was a malignant cancer that was corrupting the clothes hairstyles speech behavior of young North Koreans
Kim worries that South Korean culture is turning the younger generation in the north against his regime indeed North Korean media have said that if Kpop is not controlled North Korea will collapse like a wet wall there is nothing more frightening for Kim Jong-un information from South Korea shows that the Korean people have a much better lifestyle than even the miserable conditions in which most of the North Korean Elite live to counter this information the Kim regime has imposed extremely severe penalties for importing information from outside and also for possessing and being exposed to this information
indeed even peaceful unification could endanger the North Korean regime in the basic agreement in 1991 and then in the pan munum declaration in 2018 North Korea made agreements with South Korea on numerous personnel exchang to start the process of peaceful unification but on both occasions North Korea backed away from them the Kim family had to impose severe monitoring and restrictions on the activities of North Koreans visiting South Korea otherwise a degree of ideological contamination could develop that could be worse than listening to K-pop or watching videos of it even if North Korea can Master a
peaceful reunification as Kim Jong-un probably hoped when working with former South Korean president Moon Jin The increased exposure to South Korean culture will over time endanger the North Korean regime Kim Jong-un would not want to send his army into South Korea for fear of outside information North Korean soldiers would be immersed in South Korean culture while trying to defeat South Korean defenses individual soldiers would be exposed to Serious ideological contamination that could seriously jeopardize Kim's regime even if his army somehow conquered the South thus even though Kim's grandfather invaded South Korea in 1950 with the
aim of unifying Korea it is likely that Kim felt that Conquering the South was too risky for his regime indeed by rejecting even peaceful unification Kim downplayed North Korean hopes that Conquest could lead to a viable prosperous and unified Korea under North Korean control this does not mean that Kim rejected The Invasion altogether Kim is constantly stoking fears that South Korea and the United States will invade North Korea this is something that would not be in the interest of either country yet he wants his military to be ready to subjugate the entire territory of South
Korea by mobilizing all physical means and forces including nuclear forces if at some some point in the future Kim senses that his army is preparing to rebel against him he will no doubt want to have a backup plan to prevent it from attacking his own regime by sending his army into South Korea this would be a truly desperate move for Kim especially since us commanders in Korea have often argued that they can repel a conventional attack by North Korea in such an extreme situation it seems likely that Kim would use nuclear weapons to suppress significant
elements of South Korean and US military power on the peninsula Kim has threatened to completely destroy South Korea to give Kim a chance to survive the conflict which option does Kim prefer Kim seems to be pursuing a different option this option is the domination of South Korea Kim Jong-un like his father and grandfather is not interested in peaceful unification under mutually beneficial conditions for both koreas Kim said he gave up on Peaceful unification because both South Korean political parties constantly talk about unification under liberal democracy this is unacceptable to Kim we envision that Kim is
really looking for a two Korea solution North Korea will isolate and largely protect itself from South Korean influence it will use its military superiority to put pressure on the south without sending its personnel to the South to avoid ideological contamination it will probably demand that South Korea pay the north a subsidy of perhaps $40 billion a year that would be enough to double North Korean GDP Kim could use this money to maintain his military Supremacy by calming instability in the north as well as improving life there a little but not to make North Koreans Rich
enough to break free from the control of the Kim family the north could insist on some cultural changes in the South such as ending Kpop to reduce the pressure for change in the north to dominate South Korea North Korea needs to appear clearly militarily superior to the South to do so North Korea would need to secure the breakup of the South Korea us Alliance then build on already existing Perceptions in the south of North Korea's military superiority given the North's nuclear weapons North Korea has used various provocations to put pressure on the alliance but these
efforts have so far mainly brought the alliance closer together this was a major failure of the Kim regime the US intelligence Community has said that Kim is more likely to use his nuclear weapons for coercive purposes this coercion already included North Korea's major threats of nuclear attack and Kim is producing and testing intercon Continental ballistic missiles that raise questions about the US commitment to the nuclear umbrella just as the French questioned the US nuclear umbrella during the Cold War this effort has contributed to South Korea's confidence that the United States would respond to North Korea's
use of nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons falling from 51% in December 2022 to 39% in December 2023 Kim could turn to limited conventional and even nuclear weapons attacks on the south to test us commitment but doing so would risk the survival of the Kim regime what should South Korea and the US do to defeat Kim's threats South Korea and the US should counter the regime's efforts to undermine their Alliance including the potential to use limited strikes for coercive purposes they also need to prepare to defeat a North Korean Invasion if Kim turns to his backup
plan Kim's attack on us extended deterrence is a key element of his effort to undermine the South Korea us Alliance South Korean confidence can be strengthened through strong implementation of the 2023 Washington declaration and President Biden's commitment to for the first time give Soul a central role in strategic planning for the use of nuclear weapons in any conflict with North Korea the efforts of the nuclear Advisory Group created by the Washington declaration are at the core of this commitment however for security purposes these efforts have been largely kept secret this Central role needs to be
demonstrated publicly at least to some extent to rebuild the confidence of South Korean citizens in the US nuclear umbrella and to deter Kim from escalating his coercive threats South Korea and the United States must be clear that even if North Korea attempts limited strikes against South Korea they will be met with a swift overwhelming and decisive response to fulfill this commitment South Korea and the United States should follow the procedures developed for limited nuclear options against the Soviet Union during the Cold War these procedures involved pre-planning such as identifying potential targets for Soviet attack identifying
response targets that would be painful but not too escalatory for the Soviets and having us and Allied Forces ready to act against those targets shortly after an enemy attack while it is not appropriate to publicize the details of such pre-planning it should be appropriate to disclose the fact that such planning has taken place South Korea and the United States could take a variety of actions to better protect their forces against limited or major attacks and and especially against potential nuclear weapons attacks such actions include the dispersal of Air Forces and other high value targets enhanced
air and missile defenses and improved intelligence to make it easier for South Korea and the United States to Target the North Korean leadership and the North's nuclear forces in particular and to thwart ongoing or subsequent North Korean attacks South Korea and the United States could seek to reduce or halt North Korean nuclear weapons production they could do so by threatening North Korea that the regime will jeopardize external information if Kim does not freeze nuclear weapons production at selected facilities they could also seek to thwart Kim's various provocations such as missile tests by threatening to counter
and potentially neutralize them such actions risk escalation with North Korea and therefore South South Korea and the United States will want to create deterrent threats against possible escalation by North Korea and South Korea and the United States could try to separate Kim from Russia thus denying him various Russian military Technologies this will be difficult but basically they need to convince Kim that selling his troops to fight for the Russians against Ukraine jeopardizes his interests by increasing instability among his Elites in North Korea and leading to massive desertions of soldiers from Elite families who do not
want to be killed as Russian cannon fodder if fully implemented this and related actions would significantly increase the level of South Korea us conflict with North Korea but such actions would overlap with the increase in North Korean conflict over the past few years the current and relatively passive South Korean and US approach could minimize the risks of escalation in the short term but it carries the risk of North Korean power rising to a level that could eventually provide serious leverage against South Korea South Korean and US vigilance is needed in the short term to counter
North Korea's growing long-term threats thank you for following us
