US Election: 1 Day Left | The Opening Trade 11/04

ANNA: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH BOTH INDICATING A TIGHT FIT IS BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND KAMALA HARRIS. THE DOLLARS'S LABS WHILE U.S. STOCK FUTURES RISE. WE ALL WRITERS AFTER OPEC-PLUS MEMBERS AGREED TO DELAY A PRODUCTION HIKE AMID CONCERNS ABOUT FRAGILE DEMAND. IRAN THREATENS ACTIONS AGAINST ISRAEL. PLUS, REINER CUTS HIS 2020'S EXPENSIVE VEHICLES DUE TO DELAYS FROM BOEING, IT'S ONLY AIRCRAFT SUPPLIER. KRITI: QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS, YOUR STOCKS 50 PICTURES HIGHER BY 0.1%. WE ARE COMING THAT THEO'S ELECTION. ALL OF THAT SHOWING UP IN THE CURRENCY MARKET, DEVELOPING DENTS ACROSS-THE-BOARD SPRING BUTTON TO THINGS LIKE THE

CHINESE CURRENCY. AFTER ANYONE GETTING A BIT THIS MORNING. BRENT CRUDE ALSO GETTING A BED. WE WILL DIVE AT THE 74 HEBDO ON THE BED. THE COUNTDOWN TO "THE OPENING TRADE" STARTS NOW. GUY: GOOD MORNING, MONDAY NOVEMBER 4, ELECTION EVE. WE ARE WAITING FOR THE UNITED STATES, THE WORLD IS HOLDING HIS BREATH. IN JUST OVER 24 REST TIME, AMERICANS WILL START IN PERSON VOTING. WHAT WE WILL GET THE RESULTS REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION. IT IS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING WEEK AREA WEEK. KRITI: THIS IS NOT ONLY GOING TO BE TIGHT FINISHES, BUT IT IS ALSO

GOING TO DECIDE TO GET THAT IT PAVES A LITTLE BIT OF A VOLATILE PERIOD FOR ABOUT SIX WEEKS AFTER THAT, REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS. THAT FEELS LIKE THE SCARY ASPECT. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS THE PULL OUT OF IOWA MAKING HEADLINES. FOR A GLOBAL AUDIENCE, THIS IS A PULL THAT IS BEEN RIGHT FOUR OUT OF FIVE TIMES IN WHAT HAS BEEN A MAJOR SYRIZA. SEEING THAT SHOWING UP IN THE WAY TO THE MARKETS ARE BETTING ON THIS IN TERMS OF THE DOLLAR, TREASURY YIELDS. THE CHART OF YOUR SCREEN RIGHT NOW SHOWING AT THE LAST YEAR'S

SO I ACCORDED GOLDMAN SACHS POLICY INDEXES, YOU ARE ACTIVELY SEEING THE REPUBLICAN PAUSING BASKET STILL OUTPERFORMING. ANNA: BILLY ADAMS INCOME AT THE DOLLAR DOWN, THE VIX HAS BEEN INCREASING. DES MOINES IOWA HOLDS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION, BUT UNCERTAINTY AND REDUCING RISK IN PORTFOLIO SEEMS TO BE SOMETHING COMING THROUGH FROM A LOT OF COLLEAGUES WRITING OR JUST AS WE HAVE HAD. I WAS DRAWN TO COMMENTS FROM A BLOOMBERG ADVISOR WHO SAID NOVEMBER THE FIFTH IS GOING TO BE A BLINDFOLDED MY DRESSEL IN A MINEFIELD, WHICH SETS US UP FOR SOMETHING IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL, AND MANY

OF US ARE FULLY AWARE OF LIMITATIONS. GUY: IT INVESTORS BEING THE OPERATIVE WORD. IF YOU WANT TO INVEST IN IT IS HARD. IF YOU WENT TO BED ON IT IT IS HARD TO BUT IT IS A COIN TOSS. VOLATILITY SEEMS THE ONLY PLAY PEOPLE ARE PLAYING ON. BITCOIN FITTING OF THAT -- A LITTLE BIT. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A SENSE OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN HERE, IT WE MAY NOT GET THAT SENSE FOUR DAYS TO COME. KRITI: WE SHOULD MAKE THE POINT, UNDER BITCOIN FRONT KAMALA HARRIS HAS BEEN SEDUCING THE CROWD, SO BITCOIN

WILL BE A FASCINATING TO WATCH. ANNA: WHEN YOU SEE WITH THE RESULT IS, AND AS KRITI GUPTA POINTED OUT, IT WE GET THE RESULT WILL BE A HUGE ANSWER THE HANGOVER MARKETS, HOW CLEARLY ARE NOT THE RESULT MATERIALIZES. OIL IN FOCUS THIS MORNING, UP BY 120% ON THE BRENT CRUDE PRICE, 74482. DELAYING THEIR OUTPUT. I HAD INTENDED TO INCREASE BY 180,000 BARRELS PER DAY, BUT THERE WERE OTHER THINGS WE'RE WATCHING. IN THESE TENSIONS, AND TO BE HEARD FROM THE SUPREME LEADER IN AROUND WEDDING IS THREATENING AGAINST ISRAEL, CRUSHING RESPONSE IS THE LEG WHICH IS FOLLOWING

UP WITH A WALL STREET JOURNAL STORY TRYING TO READ, WHAT THAT MIGHT LOOK LIKE. WE ARE WATCHING THAT, BUT WILL VOLATILITY IN YOUR ONE YEAR HIGH, IT IS NOT JUST THOSE TWO FACTORS WE WATCH. WE WATCHED THE U.S. ELECTION, WHICH IN IS DOING, ALL OF THE DEVELOPMENTS ON GUY: THE CHINESE POLITICAL FRONT. GUY:GUY: DOES SEEM TO BE A FUNDAMENTAL STORY. GEOPOLITICS HAS MOVED AROUND, BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE COME BACK IN THIS OF THEMSELVES. OPEC MEANT TO BE RAISING CAPACITY IN OCTOBER, AT THAT IT WAS PUSHED TO DECEMBER. NOW IT IS BEING QUESTIONED NEXT YEAR. THIS

IS A FUNDAMENTAL STORY ABOUT WHAT THE SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE ON SIGHT. THEY CANNOT DELIVER WHAT THEY HOPE TO DELIVER. KRITI: I THINK IT IS FASTENING WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE GEO POLITICAL PREMIUM, OK PREMIUM BUILT INTO IT, AND THAT SEEMS TO BE BILLED TO THE UPSIDE NOT SO MUCH, BUT THE DOWNSIDE WHEN IT IS MORE PLAUSIBLE, THAT IS WHEN YOU SEE 5%, 6% MOVES TO THE DOWNSIDE, WOULD SPEAK TO THE VOLATILITY POINT YOU MENTIONED. I'M CURIOUS TO SEE A MUCH OIL IS RATABLE ON THE WAS ELECTION. I AM NOT SURE IT IS. ANNA: WE WILL

HAVE AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION ABOUT HOW THE DIFFERENT CANDIDATES DIFFER ON THEIR STANCE TOWARD THE ENERGY MARKETS. WHAT HAPPENS WITH WILL PRICES? AVIATION. GUY: CERTAINLY AIRLINES IN EUROPE MAKE SURE THEY ARE MUCH MORE HEDGED ON THE WELL FRONT THAN THEIR U.S. DATA PORTS, BUT WE GOT SOME NEWS OUT. THE MAIN OOZES FROM RYANAIR, CUTTING CAPACITY NEXT YEAR IN TERMS OF CUTTING THE NUMBER THE PASSAGE OF THE DILEMMA CARRIED. THIS IS BASICALLY DOWN TO THE FACT THAT THEY USE BOEING AIRCRAFT, AND THERE ARE NOT ONLY -- ANY BOEING AIRCRAFT. THE STRIKE MAY COME TO END TONIGHT. IT

LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE VOTE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASINGLY THERE IS SOME 50. WHAT IS INTERESTING AS I WAS JUST TALKING TO NEIL, THE CFO AT A RYANAIR, HE SAYS EVEN IF THE BOAT IS CLEAR THIS EVENING, TOMORROW MORNING WE LOOK AT THE RESULTS. BEFORE WE SEE BOEING BACK TO CAPACITY, IT WILL BE EARLY ON NEXT YEAR. THIS IS A STORY THAT WILL CONTINUE ON WELL INTO NEXT YEAR IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE MET ONLY ON THE AVIATION SECTOR, BUT ALSO ON THE U.S. ECONOMY. THIS IS

THE BIGGEST EXPORTER FOR THE REST. ANNA: WE GOT THERE WAS NUMBER, IT HEAVILY AFFECTED BY STRIKES AND BY HURRICANES. REALLY INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT WHERE THE BOEING STORY GOES, AND YOU MENTIONED UNION BOSSES BACKING IT. THEY BACK TO ONE BEFORE. BUT THE LANGUAGE THIS TIME AROUND DOES SEEM TO BE STRONG. UNION BOSSES SAYING THERE IS A POINT WHERE SUGGESTING THAT SAYS THAT THE TIME TO SAY YES TO THIS ONE. KRITI: THE FACT THAT WE ARE SEEING RYANAIR TALK ABOUT SUCH SUBSTANTIAL CUTS IS NOT A RIPPLE EFFECT I SAW COMING. GUY: THAT IS AN APD EFFECT.

U.K. HAS RAISE THE TAX ON FLYING, AND THEY ARE PUSHING BACK ON THAT. MICHAEL IS BENEFITS OF RESTS ON THE FACT THAT U.K. IS RAISING TAXES ON FLYING. HE WENT TO THE U.K. COME OVER THOSE TWO DEER LAKE EVENT. U.K. IS GOING IN THE EXACT OPPOSITE DIRECTION SAYING THAT WILL AFFECT POTENTIALLY THE MIDDLE OF THE U.K. POTENTIALLY SCOTLAND IN TERMS OF CAPACITY THAT BUT I NEXT YEAR, WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO WHERE THEY PUT THAT CAPACITY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING, BECAUSE THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TOO MANY AIRPORTS AND NOT ENOUGH AIRCRAFT. ANNA: ASSUMING THINK

AT THE ONES FROM BOEING. GUY: THEY WILL NOT HAVE AS MANY AS THEY THOUGHT, SO THEY WILL HAVE MORE OPERATING BASES THEY COULD GO THROUGH. AS YOU REMOVE THAT LIMITATION. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WE HAVE COMING UP WITH THE REST OF THE SHOW. A SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER WILL JOIN US. FIXED-INCOME TRADE INTO THE U.S. ELECTION. C.I.O. AT ALTI WILL BE JOINING US AROUND THE OPEN. A GLOBAL RESEARCH SCHOLAR AT THE CENTER FOR GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY. FORMER HEAD OF GAS ANALYSIS AT BP WILL BE JOINING US A LITTLE BIT LATER ON. KRITI: IT WILL BE AN

INTERESTING ELECTION CONVERSATION I IMAGINE THE RIGHT EVERY CONVERSATION THAT WE HAVE THROUGHOUT THE PROGRAM. THERE ARE PLENTY OF OTHER THINGS HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND, BECAUSE THEY GIVE WAS SELECTED AS ON TUESDAY, BUT WE MAY NOT GET THE RESULTS UNTIL AS LATE AS THIS WEEKEND, SO THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF OTHER THINGS TO GIVEN ION -- AN EYE ON. THE BOE, THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS GOING TO BE HITTING THE WIRE AS WELL. HOW MUCH OF THE ELECTION EVERY TWO TO BE BAKED INTO THAT IS ABOUT TO THE FUNDAMENTALS. I IMAGINE CHAIR GET QUESTIONS ON IT. IT

WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE THINKING ABOUT HEAVILY, PLUS PLENTY OF EARNINGS RESULTS ON BOTH OF THE LENDER, NEVER NOTICED -- NOVO NORDISK AND ARM, PLUS CHINA. CHINA TO WATCH WITH THE NBC CONVENING ALL WEEK LONG. ANNA: THE QUESTION THAT HANGS OVER THIS IS WHAT RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE? WE ARE THE POLICY DIRECTION, BUT THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CLARITY IN TERMS OF THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF MONEY ON THE TABLE, LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RESTRUCTURING, HOUSING MARKET, BANK CAPITAL, SUPPORTING DOMESTIC DEMAND. THE LAST POINT CRUCIAL FOR MANY EUROPEAN BUSINESSES. GUY: IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF

THIS WILL FALL INTO NEXT YEAR. THIS IS A NEXT YEAR STORY. AND, HOW LONG DOES IT ACTUALLY TAKE TO START HAVING AN IMPACT AS WELL IS AN OPEN QUESTION. THAT THERE WAS LOT TO BE DECIDED, BUT THE EFFECTIVE DATE MIGHT SOME TIME, AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE OUTCOME OF THE SELECTION -- THE WAS ELECTION AND, STIMULUS THE CHINESE ARE WILLING TO PUT INTO THE MARKET. IF TRUMP WINS, WILL THERE BE MORE STIMULUS COMING IN BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO COUNTER DEMAND WITH EUROS COMING IN. ANNA: THEY'RE CURRENCY ONE OF THOSE ON THE MOVE

AS WE SEE DOLLAR BETS BEING ON THE WEB. INTERESTING WAS A DELIGHT CENTRAL BANKS, NOT JUST THE FED, MORE THAN 1/3 OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL GIVE THEIR DECISIONS RUN INTEREST RATES. 25 BASIS POINT CUT SCENE AT THE FED, TO THE QUESTION THERE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS IN DECEMBER, WHETHER WE GET ANY CLOSE ON THAT. THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS INTERESTING AFTER THE BUDGET, BECAUSE AFTER THE BUDGET THE MARKET REACTED AGGRESSIVELY TO THE OB OUR NUMBERS OUT PREDICTING MORE INFLATION, SUGGESTING WE WILL GET FEWER CUTS ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND. WE TALKED ABOUT THAT A

LOT LAST WEEK, AND READS -- RACHEL RESIDES OVER THE WEEKEND BEING TOUGHER WHEN IT COMES TO PUBLIC-SECTOR PAY. THE SENSE THAT THIS THE MESSAGE THE MARKET WOULD LIKE TO YOUR RIGHT NOW. MAYBE THAT IS WHY WE ARE GETTING THE MESSAGES. GUY: THAT IS THE INFLATIONARY ASPECT, AND HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT WILL THE PLAYWRIGHTS IS THAT HAVE BEEN DISHED OUT, HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT? I AM INTERESTED TO FORECAST. WHETHER OR NOT THE CONCERNS OF THE OPR FORECAST AND SOME OF THE ERRORS MADE THERE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH WHAT A BLESSING FROM THE BANK OF

ENGLAND. I AM NOT SAYING THE, WE WILL BE PUTTING ERRORS IN THERE, BUT YOU WILL GET A SENSE OF HOW IMPORTANT IS OUR ERRORS ARE IN TERMS THE FORECASTING WILL BE SEEING. KRITI: ESPECIALLY THIS WEEK IS CRUCIAL, BECAUSE AS WE SAW SO MUCH VOLATILITY IN THE GOLD MARKET. YOU MADE IT WAS A WHITE, WHICH IS SO MUCH OUT TOGETHER MARKET -- THE GILT MARKET ACTS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE. 12,000 TO BE EXPECTED TO BE ANOMALY. GUY: WE KNEW THESE NUMBERS WOULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THEY ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.

I DO NOT KNOW WHAT REVISIONS WILL LOOK LIKE. TALK ABOUT FORECASTING ERRORS, DIFFICULT TO JUDGE AT THE MOMENT WHAT THE DEBTOR ANNA: ARE TELLING US. ANNA:YOU HAVE A DID A PRINT YOU CAN PAINT ANY STORY ON THROUGH TO BETTING UPON HOW MUCH EMPHASIS YOU PUT ON THE STRIKES IN HURRICANES AND OTHER FACTORS. TREASURIES ARE OPEN NOW SENT TO THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THEY WERE CLOSED IN THE KITCHEN SESSION, TRADING IN TOKYO, INTO BC BECAUSE HE WAS DOWN AFTER WE TALKED ABOUT A LOT OF YIELD RISE AS TRUMP TRADES WERE PRICED INTO MARKETS OVER RECENT

WEEKS. KRITI: WE LOOKING AT 4.16 ON THE TWO YEAR. 4.31 ON THE TENURE -- TEN YEAR, BUT A STEEP DECLINE ON GHOST PICTURE. A LOT OF THAT TO THE PAULDING WE GOT OVER THE WEEKEND. GUY: IOWA HAD A GIVING EFFECT YEAR, AND MAYBE THAT IS WHAT IS BEING REFLECTED. 4.3 INTO THE U.S. 10 YEAR RIGHT NOW, DOWN SEVEN BASIS POINTS. WHAT ELSE DO YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS MORNING? THE OFFICE OF ISRAEL'S PRIME MINISTRIES BEING ACCUSED OF LEAKING CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS. THE JUDGE SAYS FOUR PEOPLE INCLUDING AN NETANYAHU SPOKESPERSON HAVE BEEN ARRESTED AND ACCUSED OF REMOVING

SENSITIVE IDF INTELLIGENCE. NETANYAHU REJECTED THE PROBE AS A DEEP STATE WITCH HUNT TO DISCREDIT HIM. SPAIN'S KING BLESSED WITH MUDS AND INFLUENCE -- INSULTS. THE PRIME MINISTER WAS WESTWAY BY SECURITY BUT THE KING STAYED TO SPEAK TO A GROUP OF PROTESTERS. ANGER IS GROWING OVER THE HANDLING OF THE FLASH FLOODS WHICH ASK -- WHICH HAVE KILLED 211 PEOPLE. NVIDIA IS SAID TO REPLACE INTEL IN THE DOW JONES AVERAGE BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPEN ON FRIDAY. THE CHANGE REFLECTS THE BOOM IN AI AND N A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE CHIPS INDUSTRY. NVIDIA'S MARKET CAP IS GOING

TO $3.3 TRILLION. ANNA: WE HAVE BEEN THERE. KRITI: [INDISCERNIBLE] I AM ARGUING WITH RED NOW. ANNA: COMING UP ON THE PROGRAM, WARREN BUFFETT COUNTS HIS APPLE STAKES WHILE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY'S CASH FILE CONTINUES TO GROW. WE WILL DIG INTO THE LATEST EARNINGS, PLUS RYANAIR IS SEEING A BUILDING IN FACT IS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING WHILE STRIKING WORKERS AT THE PLAYMAKER IS THAT THE VOTE ON THE EMBATTLED MANAGEMENT. MARKETS HAVE A LOT TO PONDER THIS WEEK BETWEEN U.S. ELECTIONS AND CENTRAL-BANK DECISIONS. WE WILL DISCUSS THE IMPACT OF ALL OF THAT, OUT WITH THE MARKET POSITIONED AS WE

GO INTO THIS INCREDIBLY CONSEQUENTIAL WE. IF YOU WANT TO BE PART OF THESE CONVERSATIONS, DIDN'T TOUCH. IB+BBTV<GO> IS THE FUNCTION TO USE UNDER BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ANNA: WELCOME BACK TO "THE OPENING TRADE." THE POLLS ARE GIVING NO CLEAR INDICATION OF WE WILL WIN TO HE WAS ELECTION TOMORROW, SOME INVESTORS ARE PARING TRUMP TRADES. VALERIE IS HERE TO EXPLAIN. >> WE ARE GETTING A GLIMPSE OF PRICE ACTION WE CAN SEE ON ELECTION NIGHT. SEEING A REVERSAL IN FAVOR TRUMP TRADES. U.S. 10 YEAR YIELDS WITH THE BIG RALLY, NEARLY EIGHT BASIS POINTS. THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR

INDEX DOWN WHEN FIVE OF 1%, AND SEEING UNDERPERFORMANCE IN SMALL CAPS. THESE WERE ALL THINGS FAVORED UNDER A TRUMP WIN. WE ARE SEEING THAT REVERSED. I WANT TO DELVE IN DEEPER INTO THE CURRENCY PICTURE, BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN THOSE CURRENCIES THAT ARE MORE EXPOSED ITERIS BEING ON THE BOARD. MEXICAN PESO STRENGTHENING VERSUS THE DOLLAR. THAT IS KNOWN AS AN AN ECONOMY VERY MUCH EXPOSED TO TRUMP TARIFFS, AND DOLLARS CNH STRENGTHENING BY .50 1%. IT IS DIMINISHED CURRENCY, SO THIS IS ITS FIFTH BIGGEST MOVE IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. LOOK AT OTHER BETTING MARKETS HAVE FLIPPED

INTO FAVOR OF PARIS. WE HAD THE PULLOUT FROM IOWA. IT SEEMS LIKE ARIS IS TAKEN OVER TRUMP IN THE BETTING MARKETS. ANNA: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. VALERIE WITH THE LATEST. GUY: WHAT IS HAPPENING THIS MORNING? ARE WE SEEING THAT 10 YEAR REACTION TO REACTING TO WHAT WE GOT ON FRIDAY NIGHT? A LOT OF VOLATILITY AROUND THE PAYROLL NUMBER, OR IS IT REVERSAL OF THE TRUMP TRADE? PROBABLY EVERYTHING INTO THE MIX. A SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER JOINING US AROUND THE TABLE. WHAT DO YOU THINK? >> INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IT YIELDS A LOSS TO THE CLOSE ON FRIDAY, SO

PART OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A REVERSAL OF PRICE ACTION WE SAW ON FRIDAY THAT TO YOUR POINT WAS HARD TO EXPLAIN. IT WASTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUALLY LOOK GOOD WHEREAS PAYROLLS WERE WEAK AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS WERE PREPARING. THERE ARE NOT JUST U.S. ELECTIONS BUT SO MANY THINGS GOING ON. ON ELECTION DAY IT IS TENS AT THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION IS 30'S, AND ABOUT GETTING SUPPLY FROM THE U.K., WHICH WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MARKET PARTICIPANTS TAKE THAT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE OPEN, IT IS QUITE CLEAR.

POLLS HAVE TIGHTENED, BETTING MARKETS HAVE TIGHTENED. IT IS HARD TO TELL. IT IS ON A KNIFE EDGE. IT IS HARD TO TELL WHAT IS GOING ON. GUY: HOW MUCH MONEY DO YOU THINK IS ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW? IS MONEY WAITING TO GET INVESTED AFTER THE ELECTION? HOW CLEAR DO WE NEED TO SEE IN TERMS OF THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION? >> IF YOU LOOK AT THE PRICE ACTION, YOU WOULD SUGGEST MAYBE YOU DO NOT NEED THAT MUCH, BUT IT ALSO DEPENDS ON POSITIONING. IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK AND SAY IN 2020 IT TOOK

US FOUR DAYS. WE THINK IT WILL TAKE TWO OR A LITTLE BIT LONGER, BUT IN TERMS OF THE DIFFERENT REACTION OF THE ASSET CLASSES, FX GET A MOVE FIRST. WHY IS THAT? IT MATTERS MORE ABOUT WHO IS GOING TO TAKE THE PRESIDENCY RATHER THAN THE WHOLE SUITE OF GOVERNMENT, SO IF YOU ARE VETERAN VICTORY, THEY DO HAVE CERTAIN FX TRAYS THAT WILL PERFORM, BUT IF YOU GOT A HARRIS VICTORY YOU GOT OTHER ONES. THE DOLLAR WITH TELEPHONE THAT'S AN AREA, AND THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING ON THE WELLINGTON OPEN. KRITI: YOU MENTIONED THE

VARIOUS CURRENCIES. WHICH ONE IS TOP OF MIND FOR YOU? THE EASY ONES OF THE MEXICAN PESO, CHINESE YUAN. ARE THERE OTHER ONES IN EUROPE FEELING THAT? >> OF COURSE. THE EURO IS THE ONE WHERE YOU CAN HAVE THE LARGEST VOLUME, SO IT IS GOING TO BE A DECENT MOVER, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE, THE TRUMP VICTORY, SMALL AND OPEN ECONOMIES, THE ECONOMIES WHERE IMPORTS OR EXPORTS IS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF GDP. THEY WOULD STRUGGLE UNDER TRUMP ASSUMING KEY PERCENT OF THE TARIFFS HE IS TALKING ABOUT, WHICH IS 60% ON CHINA

AND 10% ON THE REST OF THE WORLD. SCANDINAVIAN CURRENCIES AND EASTERN EUROPEAN CURRENCIES. POLAND, HUNGARY, CZECH REPUBLIC WOULD STRUGGLE IN THAT SCENARIO. THAT IS THE PLAYBOOK WE SAW IN 2018 AND 2019 IF WE REMEMBER THE WEEK THIS THAT PUSH THE ECB TO GO INTO NEGATIVE RATES AS WELL AS DOING EXTENSIVE QE. IF HARRIS WINS YOU ARE LIKELY TO SEE VOLATILITY COMING DOWN AT RISK PREMIUM BEING LOWERED. IN THAT SCENARIO, ALSO IF IT IS DISPLAYED GOVERNMENT THE FED MAY NOT HAVE TO KEEP MONETARY POLICY HAS RESTRICTED. IN THAT CASE GARY WOULD COME INTO PLAY. MEXICAN PESO,

ALSO A RISK PREMIUM WITH TRADE TENSIONS IN THE UPCOMING NEGOTIATION OF THE USMCA. THESE CURRENCIES ARE THE ONES SENDING OFF SIGNIFICANT GARY. KRITI: THE NEGOTIATION IS FASCINATING, BECAUSE TRUMP CREATED THAT FROM NAFTA. TALK TO US ABOUT PARITY IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF PARITY WHEN IT COMES TO EURO-DOLLAR IN A TRUMP 2.0. IS THAT SOMETHING WE HAVE TO REVISIT? >> EVENTUALLY. IN A TRUMP VICTORY ASSUMING IT BECOMES A SWEEP, HE HAS A LOT OF EXECUTIVE POWER ALSO ON THE PHYSICAL SIDE END OF THE TRADE SIDE, SO YOU HAVE A DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR EURO WHERE THE U.S. ECONOMY

IS PERFORMING WELL, AND WE CAN TALK ABOUT U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM. IN EUROPE WE HAVE OUR OWN ISSUES WITH FRANCE. ITALIAN GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE BIT. SPAIN IS THE SHINING LIGHT IN EUROPE, BUT ALL OF THE OTHER ECONOMIES ARE STRUGGLING, AND IF GROWTH SLOWS DOWN YOU GET ISSUES ON THE BUT THAT SIDE. GRANTS COULD BE IN TROUBLE, EVEN GERMANY ASSUMING THAT THE DEBT BREAK STAYS. IT WILL BE CHALLENGING, AND IT MAY TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE FISCAL BUFFERS START MOVING FORWARD FOR GROWTH FOR EUROPE. ANNA: THAT IS THE EUROPEAN STORY AND ELECTION IN FOCUS.

WE ALSO HAVE THE FED AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND WITH THE RATE DECISION AND SOME OF THE RIGHT DECISIONS HAPPENING. FOCUS ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND BECAUSE OF THE MARKET WAS WITH ALL THIS WEEK. WE HAVE HAD THIS NEWS OVER THE WEEKEND, RACHEL REEVES SAYING THERE WILL BE MORE DISCIPLINE AROUND SECTOR PAY, BUT WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR AS WELL IS WHAT THE BANK OF ENGLAND THINGS WILL HAPPEN FROM HERE GIVE IT WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE OBR, NOW ASSUMING THERE WILL BE FEWER BECAUSE FUN FROM BOE BECAUSE OF INFLATION. >> REALLY GOT A POINT.

LET'S REMIND OURSELVES THAT THE OBR FORECAST OR NOT THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND FORECAST. AT ONE OF THE THINGS WILL BE LOOKING INTO HIS IS THE MULTIPLIER THAT THE OPR HAS, IS THAT THE SAME FOR THE BANK OF ENGLAND? ADDED IT NOT BEEN FOR THE BUDGET, WE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT THE BANK OF ENGLAND WOULD HAVE BEEN A PLEASE. SERVICES INFLATION IS COMING DOWN AT 4.9% NOW. HEADLINE CPI BELOW TARGET. CORE HAS BEEN LOWERED, SO THIS IS GOING TO PROGRESS. ANNA: THAT WAS THE THING WE HEARD MORE RECENTLY FROM BAILEY IS MORE CUTS,

NOT FEWER. >> WE THINK THE FORECAST WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER PAT THAT A RATES IN CONTRAST TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN TERMS OF MARKET REACTION HERE, SO IT WILL BE A CRITICAL WEEK, AND ALSO THE SUPPLY WE ARE SEEING THE DAY AFTER ELECTION VERY IMPORTANT. WE HAD EXPECTED THE GOVERNMENT TO COME OUT AND GIVE US TO BITS IN TERMS OF FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY. ANNA: INTERESTING THE TIMING OF THIS WEEK AS WELL, THE FACT THAT WE WILL GET THE BANK OF ENGLAND AND THEN FED. THANK YOU VERY MUCH, FREDERICK. WITH US TO PREVIEW

A BUSY WEEK AHEAD. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY'S CACHE FILE REACHES A NEW RECORD AS WARREN BUFFETT CONTINUED TO REFRAIN FROM MAJOR ACQUISITIONS. GUY: 30 MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF OPENING TRADE IN YOUR. 30 MINUTES OF THE START OF "THE OPENING TRADE." IT IS THE FIFTH OF NOVEMBER, ELECTION EVE TODAY. U.S. FUTURES AT THE MOMENT NOT GIVING US A CLEAR INDICATION. EUROPEAN FUTURES THIS MORNING NOT GIVING US A CLEAR INDICATION. THE EQUITY MARKET MAY SIT ON ATTENDANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BOND MARKET IS DOING SOMETHING INTERESTING, BEING LED OUT OF THE UNITED STATES. EUROPEAN ABOUT THE

MARKETS MOVING A LITTLE BIT, BUT THE U.S. TEN YEAR, WHICH HAS JUST OPENED BECAUSE JAPAN IS CLOSED TODAY IS BASICALLY REVERSING THE MOVE WE SAW LATE FRIDAY, WE ARE SEEING A BIG BID INTO THE U.S. BOND MARKET THIS MORNING, AND WE ARE WHERE WE WERE PRE-PAYROLLS. THE MARKET SEEMS TO BE IGNORING THAT NUMBER AND LOOKING AHEAD TO THE ELECTION. KRITI: WHEN YOU LOOK AT ABOUT A MARKET MOVE DOESN'T SHOW UP IN A CURRENCY PICTURE? DOES IT SHOW UP IN THE LOW PICTURE? THE INFLATION STORY IS ON LINKING COMMODITIES TO THE BOND MARKET. THAT'S GOING TO

THE COMMODITY STORY, OIL EVENTING AFTER ABOUT WAS AGREED TO PUSH BACK ITS DECEMBER PRODUCTION INCREASED BY ONE A MONTH AS TENSIONS ESCALATED AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST. JOUMANNA BERCETCHE JOINS US NOW. WHAT DID WE LEARN FROM THE OPEC PLUS DECISION? >> GUY JUST TALKED ABOUT FIREWORKS ON NOVEMBER THE FIFTH, QUITE A FEW FIREWORKS AT THE START OF THIS CONFERENCE. WITH THE DECISION THAT CAME THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT FROM OPEC+ TO DELAYED THE DECISION TO BACK 180,000 BARRELS PER DAY BY ONE MONTH, SO ENOUGH OF A TECHNICAL DECISION TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THE MARKET, BUT AS

WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT PLENTY OF CONCERN FROM INDUSTRY LEADERS FROM OPEC+ ABOUT THE STATE OF GLOBAL DEMAND, PARTICULARLY SOME OF THE SIGNS COMING THROUGH FROM CHINA IN ADDITION TO THE GROWTH OF NON-OPEC+ SUPPLY. WE HAD A NICE CHART ON THE TERMINAL JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO SHOWING THE GROWTH IN U.S. PRODUCTION HAS FULLY COMPENSATED FOR THE REDUCTION IN THE PRODUCTION THAT IS COMFORTABLE FROM OPEC, SO THAT IS TO BE PLAYING ON THE GROUP'S DEMAND FORECAST AND SUPPLY FORECAST WHEN THEY LOOK OUT INTO THE FUTURE, BUT TODAY SPECIFICALLY WE ARE SEEING A BALANCE NOT

JUST ON BACK OF OPEC'S DECISION, GEOPOLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS, BACK AT THE FOREFRONT AGAIN. OVER THE COURTS THAT WE COULD WE GOT COMMENTARY FROM OUR LEADERSHIP, THE AYATOLLAH SAYING IRAN WOULD CONSIDER A RESPONSE TO THE ISRAELI ATTACK WE WEEK AGO. THEY WERE SORT OF MODERATED AND DID NOT SAY A LOT THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. MUTED IN THEIR RESPONSE, BUT THAT CHANGE OVER THE BACON PERHAPS BECAUSE SOME OF THE HARDLINERS WITHIN LEADERSHIP OF IRAN ARE PERCHING FOR A MORE FORCEFUL RESPONSE, SO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR GEO-POLITICAL BACKDROP AS WE COULD HEAD INTO AN IMPORTANT CONFERENCE FROM

THE ENERGY COMPLEX. ANNA: YOU ARE IN THE PERFECT PLACE TO UNDERSTAND HOW THOSE IN THE ENERGY MARKETS ARE GOING INTO TO WAS ELECTION, AND HOW THEY ARE FEELING ABOUT CHINESE DEMAND, WHAT THEY MAKE AT THE LATEST NEWS FROM OPEC+. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF WHAT YOU ARE HEARING? >> CERTAINLY U.S. ELECTIONS IS A BIG ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. WE JUST HAD THE OPENING BATTLE OVER HERE. A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS WERE PRETTY FORWARD ABOUT HOW THE RIGID WOULD RESPOND TO EITHER HARRIS OR TRUMP WIN. THEY DIED TO THE QUESTIONS DIPLOMATICALLY, BUT THERE WAS CONCERNED ABOUT HOW

MUCH PRODUCTIVE IS YET TO COME IN TO GIVE US, AND NOT JUST PRODUCTION DID IT IS ALSO ADVANCED ELEGY, DRILLING HAS REALLY TRANSFORMED THE SPACE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, BUT I THOUGHT IT WAS ALSO INTERESTING TO SEE HOW SOME OF THE THEMES HAVE EVOLVED FROM A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO. A FEW YEARS AGO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE ENERGY TRILEMMA, GAINING ACCESS TO ENERGY THAT IS AFFORDABLE, SUSTAINABLE, BUT ALSO EQUITABLE. NOW THERE IS TALK ABOUT THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH END THE ENERGY DEMAND SAID THAT THOSE NECESSITATE. ALSO A VERY BIG THEME

THIS YEAR'S BED THE RISE OF DATA CENTERS AND WHAT THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY GOING FORWARD, AND JUST TO GIVE YOU NUMBERS THAT CAME OUT FROM THE OPENINGS TO BEACH -- SEECH -- SPEECH. SHE IS SAYING DATA CENTERS WILL DOUBLE CAPACITY AND DOUBLE THAT AGAIN BY 2040. THEIR PREMISE IS THAT YOU NEED TO BE INVESTING IN ALL FORMS OF ENERGY, HYDROCARBONS. TO OFFICIAL COMMENTARY WILL BE PART OF THE SOLUTION, BUT SO WILL RENEWABLES AND NUCLEAR, WHICH IS A PART OF THE ENERGY UAE THEMSELVES HAVE BEEN INVESTING HEAVILY IN. DATA CENTERS AND

AI OBVIOUSLY SAI IS EVERYWHERE A BIG THING THAT THE CONFERENCE. ANNA: CONTINUES TO BE A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION IN MANY GEOGRAPHIES. WE HAVE ANOTHER CONVERSATION ON ENERGY POLICY THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GUYS ELECTION COMING UP LATER IN THE PROGRAM. WE WILL SPEAK TO A GLOBAL RESEARCH SCHOLAR ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY AND FORMER HEAD OF GAS ANALYSIS AT BP. GUY: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY'S CASH PILE POSTED A RECORD $325 BILLION, AND THEY CUT THEIR SAKE IN APPLE AGAIN BY AROUND A QUARTER. LET'S BRING IN CHARLIE WELLS. BUFFETT SOMETHING APPLE, BUT WHY? >> YOU COULD READ THIS IN

THE INTERESTING, SPICY WAY IS MAYBE BE WARREN BUFFETT ABOUT APPLE. HE HAS NEVER BEEN A BIG TECH GUY. APPLE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT YEAR. THE FLIPSIDE OF THIS AND PROBABLY THE MORE REALISTIC READ IS THEIR EQUITY EXPOSURE ON APPLE WAS HUGE, SO THEY HAD TO TURN THAT DOWN. THIS IS A PORTFOLIO AFFECT STORY AND TECH STORY. THERE ARE CONCERNS FROM BUFFETT ABOUT TAX RACES IN THE FUTURE, SO SELLING NOW COULD HEAD OFF SOME OF THOSE HITS. KRITI: WALK US THROUGH OTHER BETS WARREN BUFFETT IS BEEN MAKING. HE IS AN VALUE INVESTOR. IF NOT APPLE, THEN

WHAT? >> EVALUATE INVESTMENT AND ALSO A CONSUMER COMPANY. THE IPHONE IS THE CONSUMER PLAY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR AND IN THE THIRD ORDER HIM CUTTING BANK OF AMERICA STAKES AS WELL, SO THAT WAS ONE THE LATE OUTFLOW FOR BERKSHIRE, AND NOW THEY ARE UNDER THE 10% OWNERSHIP OF THE BANK. THEY DO NOT HAVE TO REPORT THEIR MOVE SO FREQUENTLY, SO THAT SHOULD BENEFIT BERKSHIRE AS WELL. ANNA: THEY CANNOT SEEM TO FIND PLACES TO PARK THE CASH OR THEY DO NOT WANT TO PUT THE MONEY TO WORK? >>

NET SELLERS OF EQUITY PART THE PROCEEDS INTO SHORT-TERM T-BILLS, AND THERE WAS A SENSE THAT THERE IS NOTHING OUT THERE TO BUY, WARREN BUFFETT THAT HIMSELF AT THE ANNUAL MEETING THAT IS FINE. THEY WENT TO LOOK FOR LOW RISK INVESTMENTS THAT CAN MAKE THEM A LOT OF MONEY. THAT THEY DO NOT SEE A LOT OF THOSE OUT THERE. SOMETHING STRIKING ABOUT THE THIRD QUARTER IS USUALLY OF THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT BERKSHIRE WILL REPURCHASE TO THEIR SHARES, BUT THEY DID NOT DO THIS THIS QUARTER. GUY: THIS IS THE MOST INTERESTING TELL HIM WHAT HIS THINKING LOOKS

LIKE. IF YOU THINK YOUR OWN STOCK POTENTIALLY IS OVERVALUED, IT IS GOING UP, BUT THAT TELLS YOU SO MUCH ABOUT HIS PERCEPTION OF WHAT HE THINKS THE WIDER STOCK MARKET IS. >> EVERYTHING IS TOO EXPENSIVE, AND UNLIKE A LOT OF OTHER FINANCIAL FIRMS, PERMANENT CAPITAL MEANS THEY CONSIDER UNDERWEIGHT. KRITI: CAN WE TALK ABOUT TOGETHER FACTOR THAT BERKSHIRE HAD THREE MAJOR INSURER. DESPITE STRIPES, HURRICANES, ABBASID HITTING BERKSHIRE? >> IT IS IMPORTANT YOU BROUGHT THAT UP, BECAUSE THERE EARNINGS FROM INSURANCE UNDERWRITING WERE DOWN 70%, AND YOU HAVE GOT TO THINK ABOUT HURRICANES. HURRICANE HELENE HIT INTO THE

THIRD QUARTER. THE COMPANY ALSO SAID HURRICANE MILTON WILL HAVE A HINT GOING FORWARD. KRITI: WE TALK ABOUT THE INSURANCE BUSINESS. THEY ARE AN INVESTOR, INSURER, REAL ESTATE COMPANY. CHARLIE WELLS STANDING BY WITH ALL OF THE INSIDE. IT IS FASCINATING, BECAUSE IS BETS ON GOLD, FAIRLY OFTEN, SO IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THIS RISK OFF STRATEGY AND GOING INTO GOLD. ANNA: REALLY INTERESTING TO SEE, HE HAS GOT A LOT OF CASH. WE HAVE A BIG EVENT TAKING PLACE THIS WEEK. I AM WONDERING IF HE IS LEAVING HIMSELF IN A POSITION TO TAKE ACTION ON WHAT THE NEXT

FIVE YEARS OF U.S. POLITICS WILL LOOK LIKE. GUY: HE IS LOOKING FOR A EVALUATIONS. HE WANTS TO SEE A BETTER ENTRY POINT. HE IS SELLING OUT OF THE NUMBER OF MAJOR POSITIONS, SITTING ON A LOT OF CASH DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEIR CASH WILL BE YIELDING LESS AND LESS GOING FORWARD, SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE. WHAT IS THE TRIGGER FOR BUFFETT TO GET INVOLVED? HOW BIG EVALUATION DROPPED WE NEED TO SEE? ANNA: DOES EVERYTHING HAVE TO BE CHEAPER. KRITI: WE TALK ABOUT APPLE AND HOW BIG OF A DEAL IT WAS THAT THEY INVESTED IN

APPLE. I WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHEN HE SAYS NVIDIA IS A VALUE STOCK, BECAUSE HE HAS HAD A LOVE-HATE RELATIONSHIP WITH INTEL AS WELL. IF YOU ARE SAYING CHIPS ARE THE NEW WILL HEDGE OR VALUE BET, WHEN DOES IT SHOW UP IN NVIDIA. ANNA: MAYBE NO ONE WANTS TO HAVE THE CONVERSATION. WE TAKE A LOOK AT RYAN THERE AFTER THE AIRLINE CREDITS PASSENGER GROWTH TARGET. WE WILL FOCUS IN ON WHAT RYANAIR HAS SAID THIS MORNING AND OF THE STOCKS TO WATCH. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ GUY: 15 MINUTES TO THE OPENING TRADE IN EUROPE. IT

WILL BE AN INCREDIBLY BUSY WEEK. WE HAVE SO MUCH ON DECK. THE ELECTION FRONT AND CENTER. LET'S FIND OUT WHAT IS SKETCHING KRITI GUPTA'S EYE. KRITI: EVERYTHING YOU'S ELECTION-RELATED WILL BE CATCHING MY EYE, BUT WHAT IS INTERESTING IS HOW THE MARKETS ARE INTERPRETING THE ELECTION. THE DOLLAR, BITCOIN, MAYBE EVEN TREASURY YIELDS. HE WOULD SAY THERE WAS CONCERN ABOUT THE IOWA POLL, BUT TAKE A STEP BACK. THESE ARE THE GOLDMAN ELECTION BASKETS LOOKING AT THE REPUBLICAN POLICY BASKET LOOKS LIKE AN DEMOCRATIC POLICY BASKET. THE DEMOCRATIC IN THE WHITE LINE. THE BLUE ONE IN THE REPUBLICAN ONE.

WOULD YOU ARE ACTUALLY SEEING IS OUTPERFORMANCE WHEN IT COMES TO THE START DID IN THE REPUBLICAN BASKET. IT IS STARTING TO TERM BUT OUTPERFORMING, AND IT IS NOT SPECIFIC TO A TRUMP TRADE. IT IS TALKING ABOUT A RED SWEEP . YOU CAN SEE HOW VOLATILE THIS TERM IS BEEN. YOU CAN SEE THE SIDE TO GET THAT BACK IN THE EVENT POINTS -- PIVOT POINTS IN THIS CHART WAS THE TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. YOU CAN ALSO DO THIS TURN IN TERMS OF KAMALA HARRIS'S OVER THE NATIONAL TICKET. ALL THE WAY INTO THE DEBATE THAT YOU SAW OVER

ONE MONTH AGO. A REAL TURNAROUND THAT COMES DOWN TO NOT JUST IT WAS IN THE OVAL OFFICE, BUT HE GOOD MIX OF CONGRESS. ANNA: WITH THAT IN MIND WITH THAT ANY WIDER MARKET CONTEXT. MARK CUDMORE WITH US WITH THOUGHTS AHEAD OF THE WAS ELECTION. TALKING ABOUT CHANGING EXPECTATIONS AROUND WHETHER WE GET A TRUMP PRESIDENCY WEATHERBY GET SOME KIND OF RED SWEEP IN WASHINGTON D.C. MARK: THAT IS THE DYNAMIC. I THINK IT REFLECTS A LOT MORE ABOUT POSITION PAIRING BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY, RATHER THAN A REAL CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS. TALKING TO TRADERS ON THE WEEKEND, I

HAVE COME BACK AND TRIED TO PULL AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE. MOST PEOPLE ARE POSITION FOR A TRUMP VICTORY BUT TENTATIVELY POSITIONED. THERE TENDS TO BE A BIAS IN THE MARKET. WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE MARKETS THE TRUMP IS LIKELY TO WIN, BUT POLLS SEEM TO BE GUESSING THEMSELVES. BECAUSE OF THAT, PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE HIGH RISK EXPOSURE. I THINK THAT DYNAMIC WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF SESSIONS IS PAIRING BACK RISK RATHER THAN SWIVELING TO THINK THAT HARRIS HAS A MUCH GREATER CHANCE. GUY: WHEN DO WE START TO SEE THE BIG

DIRECTION? HOW HIGH IS THE BAR? WHEN WILL THESE INVESTORS LOOKING TO BE DEPLOYED MONEY INTO THE MARKET? MARK: I THINK THAT FOR ALL OF THE HEDGE FUND GUYS, THEY WILL BE ACTING LUNCHTIME ON WEDNESDAY . WE WILL GET ENOUGH INPUT FROM KEY SWING STATES TO KNOW WHETHER THE POLLING ADJUSTMENTS HAVE UNDER CORRECTED, OVERCORRECTED TO OR WHETHER THEY ARE IN LINE, SO THAT MEANS PEOPLE IN THE MOST ACCURATE MODELS BY AROUND THAT TIME ON WEDNESDAY WILL KNOW ROUGHLY WHETHER THE MODELS ARE CORRECT OR THEY COULD ADJUST THEM AND HAVE A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTS, AND

THERE IS AN EXPECTATION THAT UNLESS IT IS TRULY CLOSE WE WILL KNOW WHICH WAY THE RESULTS WILL BE BY LUNCH ON WEDNESDAY ON ASIA. REMEMBER, FOUR YEARS AGO WE KNEW WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN TO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASIA, BUT TO GIVE OFFICIAL RESULTED NOT COME THROUGH FOR A FEW DAYS LATER. FROM THAT MOMENT ON WE WILL START SEEING TRADERS REACT. I THINK THE CONVICTION IS AROUND TRUMP TRADES, BECAUSE TRUMP IS A CHANGE OF THE STATUS QUO, SO THAT IS WHERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ACTION WILL HAPPEN. IF TRUMP WINS, PEOPLE WANT TO BUY THE

DOLLAR. DOLLAR MEXICO, DOLLARS CNH WILL REACT STRONGLY IF TRUMP IS WINNING, WHICH WE SHOULD KNOW BY WEDNESDAY AT LUNCHTIME. KRITI: MARK CUDMORE JOINING US THIS MORNING. IT A MORE UP-TO-DATE ANALYSIS FOR MEN IN THE TEAM. GO FROM THE MACRO TO THE MICRO. HERE ARE STOCKS TO WATCH FROM JOE EASTON. JOE: RYANAIR DOWNGRADING ON THE IMPACT OF DELIVERIES. THE OUTLOOK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOEING ENDING THE STRIKE SOONER THAN LATER AND ALSO PRODUCTION RAMPING UP MORE QUICKLY THAN IS CURRENTLY PRICED AND ACCORDING TO THE COMPANY. RYANAIR HAS BEEN HIT THIS YEAR BY A DECLINE IN FARES,

THE CEO HAS WARNED OF A DECLINE. DROPPING CLOSE TO 22 AND WENT BELOW 14, NOW AT ABOUT 18. THE RISING OIL PRICE HITTING THE COST IN TERMS OF REDUCING MARGINS FURTHER. THEY COULD BE ANY IMPACT FOR THE COMPANY, BUT FOR THE MOMENT IT IS BOEING STRIKES GETTING THE COMPANY'S PASSENGER NUMBERS. IN TERMS OF BOEING, WILL RISING OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE OUTLOOK OVER IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ALSO OF THE SUPPLY CUT POTENTIAL FOR OPEC AS WELL, SO WE COULD BE -- COULD SEE FEEDTHROUGH INTO THE ENERGY STOCKS. IF WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE OIL MARKET

IN TERMS OF STOCKS, WE CAN SEE SHARE PRICES HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN UNDERPERFORMING OVER THE PAST YEAR TO DATE GIVEN ANALYSTS DOWNGRADING THEIR FORECAST FOR OIL PRICES, BUT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE RETRACEMENT OF THAT MOVE. IN TERMS OF CHIPMAKERS, GOT OUR EYES ON ST MICRO, AND IT'S ONLY DOWNGRADE TO SELL OVER AT MORGAN STANLEY. MORGAN STANLEY CITING WEAKNESS IN THE AUTO SECTOR, SO CHIPS OF BLOOD INTO THE AUTO SPACE WITH A HUGE TARGET DOWNGRADE GOING FROM 35 EUROS DOWN TO 20 EUROS SAYING GROWTH IS A CHALLENGE FOR THE COMPANY. 17 BUYS ON THAT ONE. IN TERMS

OF YOUR OTHER ANALYSTS RATINGS, THERE ARE A COUPLE IN THE U.K. TO BRING YOU. STANCHART COMES DOWN TO NEUTRAL AFTER A BIG RALLY. NATWEST RAISED TO OUTPERFORM FOLLOWING THEIR RESULTS WHICH WERE BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED TO, AND WE HAVE THE U.K. BUDGET. FRASERS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM. ALL OF THOSE WHO BEGIN FOCUS THIS MORNING. ANNA: THANK YOU, JOE. AFTER THAT LIST, THEY'RE VERY VERY SHARE PRICE -- THE BURBERRY SHARE PRICE, THE LUXURY GOODS SECTOR REPORTING THERE COULD BE -- WE ARE SEEING IT BE PICKED UP BY A NUMBER TO PROGRESS AS SOMETHING THAT BY MOVE THESE SHARES. GUY: WAITING

TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN, IS THERE GOING TO BE M&A AROUND THE STOCK? YOU HAVE BURBERRY, MONTCLAIR, I AM WONDERING IF WE CAN DRAW A LINE BETWEEN ARNAULT AND BURBERRY. KRITI: I FEEL LIKE THE MESSAGING IS A DIFFERENT. AREN'T BURBERRY TRYING TO REACH A MESS AUDIENCE -- MASS AUDIENCE? GUY: TRANSCODE'S -- TRENCHCOATS. ANNA: WE HAVE SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC AND FOCUS REPLACING THEIR CEO, AND THERE IS BEEN THE SUGGESTION THIS COULD GO WEAKER AT THE START OF TRADE AS WELL. THEY SAID IN A STATEMENT THAT THE BOARD DECIDED TO APPOINT A COMPANY VETERAN WHO HAS BEEN WITH

THE BUSINESS FOR DECADES. THE COMPANY AT THE FOCUS OF A LOT OF THINGS CHANGING IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY RIGHT NOW. GUY: IT FEELS LIKE THE BOARD DID NOT FEEL LIKE HE WAS GOING FAST ENOUGH. THIS IS A COMPANY THAT NEEDS TO ACCELERATE AND PUSH HARDER. THERE ARE KEY SHORTAGES WITHIN THE ELECTRICAL GRID SPACE AT THE MOMENT. ANNA: PLUS THE FACT THAT THEY WERE HIT BY A PENALTY. THE FRENCH COMPETITION AUTHORITY HIT THEM WITH A PENALTY, SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WEIGHS ON THE BUSINESS. WE GO INTO A BUSY WEEK WITH INVESTORS SAYING THEY ARE LIGHTENING

UP ON POSITIONING. THE THING WE HAVE BEEN EXPLORING WITH A GUESS THAT IS SENT IS WHAT THEY EXPECT TO HAPPEN, BUT ALSO THE TIMING OF WHEN THEY EXPECT THINGS TO HAPPEN. MARK GIVING US HIS THOUGHTS. LUNCHTIME ON WEDNESDAY IN ASIA. WILL INVESTORS KNOW ENOUGH TO START PLACING THOSE TRADES? KRITI: WILL THEY KNOW ENOUGH OR WILL THEY GO LONG VOL? DOES THE CHINA NEWS DRIVE AND MAGNIFY. GUY: HOW MUCH NEWS WE WILL GET OUT OF CHINA IS A QUESTION. A NUMBER OF STOCKS WE ARE FLANKING INTO THE OPEN. WE WILL DEAL WITH THE DETAILS OF THOSE.

"THE OPENING TRADE" IS UP. FUTURES FAIRLY FLAT. WE WILL GET DETAILS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. GUY: COUPLE OF MINUTES UNTIL THE OPENING TRADE IN EUROPE. IT'S LOOK AT THE LEGACY FROM FRIDAY. EUROPEAN STOCKS, THE WHITE LINE CLIMBING INTO THE CLOSE, LITTLE FATE AS WE COME INTO THE CLOSE IN EUROPE. POST PAYROLLS WE GET AN AFTERNOON FADE IN THE U.S.. U.S. MARKETS FINISHED JUST HIGHER BUT THERE WAS A DEFINITION OF FADE THAT NEEDS TO BE PRICED IN THIS MORNING. KRITI: FROM THE BOND MARKET AND THE EQUITY MARKET, YOU SEE THIS IDEA THAT CAC 40 FUTURES ARE

DOWN 0.3 PERCENT, IT IS YOUR UNDERPERFORMER IN FUTURES TRADE THIS MORNING. THE FTSE 100 TAKING A BEAT LOWER. I THINK IN ANTICIPATION OF THE U.S. ELECTION, IT MIGHT BE A MICRO DAY TODAY. ANNA: WE HAVE OIL PRICES GOING HIGHER TODAY. RYANAIR IN FOCUS. WE HEARD THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACT OF THE BOEING DELIVERY DELAYS. THEY CUT THEIR PASSENGER ESTIMATES FOR 2026. THAT WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE AVIATION SECTOR. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BURBERRY, MEDIA WITHIN THE LUXURY SPACE TALKING ABOUT WHETHER THERE MAY BE AN OFFER FOR MONCLER. WE WILL WATCH THE SHARE

PRICES TO SEE IF THERE IS A SENSE THESE TWO BUSINESSES COULD FORM SOME KIND OF OUTERWEAR BUSINESS TRADE SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC IN FOCUS, IS THIS JUST ABOUT A DIFFERENT ROADMAP FOR THE BUSINESS? OR IS IT TO DO WITH THE PRICE-FIXING THEY WERE ACCUSED OF? THEY SAID THEY WOULD APPEAL THAT DECISION BUT THE BUSINESS WAS FINED. GUY: LET'S FOLD ALL OF THAT INTO THE MARKET OPEN. IT IS TIME FOR THE OPENING TRADE THIS MONDAY MORNING. WE WAIT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR SOME CLARITY ON THE U.S. ELECTION. I DON'T EXPECT WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE OUTLOOK

FOR EUROPE THIS MORNING. MONDAY MORNING FEELS A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INVOLVED. AS RESULT OF WHICH YOU ARE NOT SEEING MUCH SENSE OF DIRECTION AT AN INDEX LEVEL. THE FTSE 100 BARELY BUDGING, THE STOXX 600 DOWN LESS THAN 1/10 OF 1%, THE IBEX DOWN 0.1%, WE WAIT FOR THE CAC, THE DAX AND THE SMI THIS MORNING. THE DAX DOWN 0.1%. THE CAC MAY BE LITTLE BIT OF SOFTNESS THERE VERSUS PEERS, DOWN 0.3%. AT AN INDEX LEVEL, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A CLEAR SENSE. BELOW THE SURFACE, MAYBE SOME SINGLE STOCKS. KRITI: A SECTOR STORY IS

EMERGING FROM OUTPERFORMANCE IN ENERGY NAMES. SHELL, TOTAL AND BP AT THE TOP OF THE PACK ALONGSIDE THE LIKES OF ANGLO AMERICAN. TO THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH SOME HEALTH-CARE/PHARMACEUTICAL STOCKS THAT HAVE BEEN OUTPERFORMER'S LATELY ARE DRAGGING THE INDEX DOWN, THE LIKES OF NOVO NORDISK AMONG OTHERS, BUT RIGHT NOW ENERGY AND COMMODITIES IN FOCUS. ANNA: AND RYANAIR IN FOCUS. THERE ARE A COUPLE REASONS THINGS MIGHT BE NEGATIVE FOR THE AVIATION SECTOR. NOT ALL THE AIRLINES ARE NEGATIVE TODAY BUT WE HAVE RYANAIR DOWN 1.4%. SOME OTHER TRAVEL AND LEISURE RELATED STOCKS ALSO FALLING DOWN. WE HAD THIS UPDATE ON

WHAT IMPACT BOEING DELAYS WILL HAVE BUT WE HAVE THE OIL PRICE MOVING HIGHER AND THAT CAN HAVE IMPACT. PERSONAL CONSUMER, DISCRETIONARY, GROCERY STORES IS ANOTHER AREA OF WEAKNESS BUT SOME OF THAT IS REVERSAL FROM FRIDAY, RECKITT BEEN CAESAR -- RECKITT BENCKISER A STRONG PERFORMER. GUY: IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THIS CONTINUES. THE ELECTION CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THIS SPACE. IT WAS INTERESTING THAT THE U.S. MAJORS REPORTED SOFTER NUMBERS. THERE HAS BEEN THIS CONCERN AROUND THE DISCOUNT EUROPEAN MAJORS TRADE TO THEIR U.S. PEERS, I WONDER WHAT IMPACT THE U.S. ELECTION COULD HAVE

ON THAT. OTHER AREAS WE ARE WATCHING, REAL ESTATE SOFTENING UP THIS MORNING. SOME OTHER NAMES, ARE WE SEEING MOVEMENT IN BURBERRY YET? I THROW THE HOSPITAL PASS TO ANNA. ANNA: STANDBY, NO, I DON'T THINK WE HAVE GOT THAT ONE OPEN JUST YET. WE WATCH WITH INTEREST THERE AND MONCLER THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT NEWS STORY. GUY: VESTAS IS UP WHICH IS INTERESTING, THE OFFSHORE WIND. VESTAS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STOCKS THAT COULD BE FIRMLY IN FOCUS. TRUMP INDICATED STRONGLY HE IS NOT IN FAVOR OF OFFSHORE WIND. KRITI: YOU HAVE SEEN THIS SHOW UP IN

RENEWABLES STOCKS BUT HE IS IN FAVOR OF SOLAR WHICH IS INTERESTING. IF YOU GOING TO THE NITTY-GRITTY OF THE RENEWABLE STORY THERE IS THIS ELECTION BET BETWEEN SOLAR VERSUS WIND. IT COMES BACK IN THE MEANTIME WHILE WE AWAIT THOSE ELECTION RESULTS, WE ARE GOING TO KIND OF SEE WHAT INVESTORS ARE SUPPOSED TO DO, IN THE MEANTIME WE HAVE THE PERFECT GUEST. ANNA: NANCY CURTIN JOINED JUST, CIO AT ALL TT ADMIN GLOBAL -- ALTI TIEDEMANN GLOBAL. ONE OF OUR GUESTS IN THE LAST HOUR WAS TALKING ABOUT THE NUMBER OF INVESTORS WHO ARE REDUCING THEIR EXPOSURE TO

THE EXTENT THAT IS A TOOL POSSIBLE TO THE RESULTS OF THE U.S. ELECTION HOW ARE YOU APPROACHING THIS WEEK? SHARON: WE SAY TO OUR CLIENTS YOU NEED TO BE LONG-TERM INVESTORS. WE WERE NOT POSITION AHEAD OF THIS EVENT ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAVE IMPACT ON MARKETS AND FRANKLY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL. THIS IS A PHOTO FINISH AS WE KNOW AND IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT WHO WINS THE PRESIDENCY, IT IS ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN CONGRESS AS WELL AND I WOULD SAY THOSE ARE VERY HARD TO CALL AT THE MOMENT. TRY TO POSITION AHEAD FEELS LIKE

A FOOLS ERRAND BUT IT IS NOT WHAT WE DO, WE STAY WITH A CLIENT'S STRATEGIC ALLOCATION AND FRANKLY BOTH CANDIDATES ARE PROGROWTH, SO LET'S PUT THAT IN CONTEXT AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO 2025. ANNA: CAN YOU SEE A WAY EITHER CANDIDATE CAN BE GOOD FOR RISK ASSETS? NANCY: KAMALA HARRIS IS MORE OF THE SAME, IS THAT A BAD THING? U.S. ECONOMY IS DOING WELL, TAKE OUT THE FUNKY JOBS NUMBER LAST WEEK, BUT WE HAD SOME HURRICANES AND OTHER THINGS AFFECTING THAT. -- THAT SEEMS PRETTY GOOD, I WOULD LIKE THAT ONE, THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE

BETTER AT ALL AND TRUMP, MOST PEOPLE THINK HE WILL TRY TO EXTEND THE TAX CUTS. AND LOWER CORPORATE TAX RATES WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT OF A BOOST NEAR-TERM TO THE MARKET BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LONG END OF THE BOND MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES. THE FISCAL SITUATION IS RATHER CHALLENGING, SO HARRIS STANDS FOR LESS FISCAL IMPROVED AND TO SPEAK, SO I THINK NEITHER OF THEM ARE PARTICULARLY BAD, BOTH ARE PROGROWTH AND I WOULDN'T SAY ONLY TRUMP WILL BE GOOD FOR THE MARKETS. DON'T FORGET, THE STATUS QUO IS NOT

SO BAD AT THE MOMENT. KRITI: BUT YOU MENTIONED THAT PROGROWTH POLICY AND CRITICS OF THAT ARGUMENT WOULD SAY A LOT OF THAT COMES DOWN TO TAX CUTS. THIS IDEA THAT TRUMP IS TALKING ABOUT MAJOR TAX CUTS, WHICH WOULD THEN TO BALANCE THE FISCAL ISSUES, BE OFFSET BY THE TARIFF STORY. THE TAX INCREASES UNDER KAMALA HARRIS ARE BY A LOT OF CORPORATE PLAYERS THOUGHT OF AS ANTI-GROWTH, BUT WOULD YOU SAY TO THAT? NANCY: ARE THE TARIFF INCREASES GOING TO FUND TAX CUTS, I THINK THAT IS A BIT VOODOO ECONOMICS. ANYWAY WHAT WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE IS

DEPENDENT UPON THE COMPOSITION OF CONGRESS, RIGHT, AND EVEN IT LOOKS AT THE MOMENT LIKE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE THE SENATE, HOUSE STILL REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT EITHER WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY. CONGRESS DOESN'T ALWAYS JUST WROTE ALONG PARTISAN LINES. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY, MAYBE SOME THINGS WE TALKED ABOUT OTHER THAN TARIFFS WHICH CAN HAPPEN BY PRESIDENTIAL DECREE, MAY NOT GET THROUGH TO THE EXTENT, ETC. THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF CAMPAIGN PROMISES OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. KRITI: LET'S TALK ABOUT CONGRESS AND THE SPLIT THERE. WHAT WOULD BE THE

FIRST AGENDA ITEM ON THE CONGRESSIONAL SPACE? IN EUROPE WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT THE DEFENSE SPENDING STORY, 10 DAYS AFTER WE HIT THE BUDGET, WHAT IS THE FIRST THING ON CONGRESS' AGENDA? NANCY: CONGRESS HAS TO LOOK AT THE FISCAL RECTITUDE OF THE UNITED STATES OR LACK THEREOF. EVEN PUTTING ASIDE WITH TRUMP OR HARRIS COULD PUT INTO PLACE, WE HAVE FISCAL DEFICITS OF MORE THAN 6% AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE, AGING DEMOGRAPHIC IN THE UNITED STATES, INCREASING COSTS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND HEALTH CARE NOT TO MENTION THAT INTEREST COST NUMBER. A TRILLION DOLLARS IN

THE DEFICIT ANNOUNCED AT THE END OF DECEMBER. I THINK CONGRESS RECOGNIZES BOTH SIDES THAT THIS IS A PROBLEM. AND THEY NEED TO DEAL WITH IT. KRITI: YOU ARE, OF COURSE, A LONG-TERM INVESTOR BUT BETWEEN THE INAUGURATION OF THE PRESIDENT AND THE CONGRESSIONAL BUILD THAT FOLLOWS, THERE IS A MEETING IN DECEMBER WHEN IT COMES TO APPROPRIATIONS AND WHERE BUDGET SPENDING GOES. I'M CURIOUS AS WE WAIT FOR THAT LAME PERIOD, HOW MUCH MIGHT THAT CHANGE THINGS FOR AN INVESTOR THAT MAY BE SHORT-TERM? NANCY: IT IS GOING TO BE A BAR FIGHT, THE WHOLE DEFICIT SITUATION IS A

BAR FIGHT. NOT ALL OF CONGRESS VOTES ALONG PARTISAN LINES, SO WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT TURNS OUT, IT IS GOING TO BE MORE PROTRACTED THAN PEOPLE THINK. THE KEY THING FOR US IS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF FISCAL RECTITUDE AS OPPOSED TO SPENDING, SPENDING, SPENDING GET SUPPLIED. BY THE WAY, THE SO-CALLED BOND MARKET VIGILANTES WHEREVER THEY HAVE BEEN, ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT IF THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF SPENDING INCREASES AND WE DON'T GET PAST THE DEBT CEILING WHICH WILL COME AGAIN IN JANUARY. THESE ARE RISKS AHEAD BUT BROADLY IN OUR

VIEW, WE THINK GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES IS GOOD, WE ARE OVERWEIGHT EQUITIES. THAT IS STILL THE PLACE TO BE. THERE IS A LOT MORE ATTRACTIVELY PRICED STOCKS, NOT JUST IN U.S. LARGE-CAP THAT WE POSITIONED IN, BUT ALSO DIVERSIFICATION, KEY MESSAGE FOR CLIENTS, MAKE SURE YOU DIVERSIFY AND WE HAVE OTHER THINGS IN THE PORTFOLIO THAT SERVE AS A BALLAST TO EQUITIES. GUY: THE U.S. OUTPERFORMS REST OF THE WORLD, IS THAT TRUE THE NEXT FOUR YEARS? NANCY: THERE IS A LOT OF RESILIENCE, A LOT OF GOOD THINGS HAPPENING. THE CONSUMER IS STRONG, SITS ON A HUGE

AMOUNT OF HOME-EQUITY WEALTH, ETC. BUT IT IS INTERESTING WE ARE IN A GLOBAL SYNCHRONIZED EASING CYCLE. LET'S NOT FORGET THAT, BANK OF ENGLAND LIKELY TO CUT ON THURSDAY, ECB WILL CUT PROBABLY IN DECEMBER. WE HAVE 10 EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES THAT HAVE CUT INTEREST RATES. FISCAL AND MONETARY STINGLESS COMING FROM CHINA. MAY NOT BE ENOUGH ABOUT WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT TURNS OUT, BUT GLOBAL SYNCHRONIZED EASING CYCLE SHOULD HELP GLOBAL GROWTH. GUY: THE FED IS INCLUDED IN THAT -- NANCY: WE DO THINK THE FED WILL PROBABLY CUT THIS THURSDAY. GUY: AND THEN? NANCY: I THINK

THEY WILL BE DATA-DEPENDENT AND COME OUT THIS THURSDAY, WHICH WE EXPECT PROBABLY WILL CUT, AND TALK ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DATA. THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE NEW ALL RIGHT AND WHETHER IT IS 2.9% OR 3.2% REMAINS TO BE SEEN, WE ARE ON A POLICY NORMALIZATION PATH. AS INFLATION HAS COME DOWN TO REAL RATES HAVE GONE UP WHICH IS A FORM OF EFFECTIVE TIGHTENING, SO WE THINK THEY NEED TO BRING RATES DOWN. ANNA: WHAT YOU LOOK AT IN EUROPE? WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THE UNITED STATES. A LOT OF THE

VULNERABILITY AROUND THE ELECTION, IF THERE IS SOME, MIGHT FALL ELSEWHERE RATHER THAN ON THE UNITED STATES. ARE THEY ARE SECTORS YOU ARE ACTIVELY AVOIDING RIGHT NOW WITH THE ELECTION IN MIND? NANCY: LONG-TERM INVESTORS, YOU KNOW, EMPHASIZING COMPANY'S WITH GREAT MOATS AND CASH FLOW IS THE WAY TO DO IT LONGER-TERM. BUT I DO THINK THAT EUROPE NEEDS A GROWTH STRATEGY. DRAGHI TALKED ABOUT THAT FROM A MACRO PERSPECTIVE, EUROPE DOES NEED A BOOST, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, EUROPE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A STOCK PICKER'S MARKET AND THERE ARE GREAT COMPANIES, NOT SO GOOD AS WELL,

LIKE EVERY OTHER MARKET, SO IT IS ABOUT FINDING THOSE QUALITY COMPANIES, ETC. GUY: YOU ARE CONFIDENT YOU CAN FIND THEM WHEN WARREN BUFFETT SAYS HE CAN'T? [LAUGHS] NANCY: WARREN BUFFETT GOT A LITTLE LONG ON HIS KEYS IN HIS APPLE HOLDING BUT WE COULD EASILY HAVE SOME TURMOIL, VOLATILITY IN BOND MARKETS. WE WERE UP SIX WEEKS IN A ROW -- GUY: YOU ARE HAPPY WITH VALUATIONS AT THE MOMENT? NANCY: THE U.S. IS EXPENSIVE, RIGHT, LET'S NOT PRETEND IT IS NOT EXPENSIVE. I THINK A COUPLE OF THINGS, THE SO-CALLED MAGNIFICENT SEVEN TRADED AT 30 TIMES EARNINGS ON

AVERAGE, THE REST OF THE MARKET 16.9%, 15% DISCOUNT TO LONG-TERM AVERAGE, SO LET'S BIFURCATE WHAT IS GOING ON. THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN IS VULNERABLE TO DISAPPOINTMENT AND WE SAW THAT IN RECENT EARNINGS. THE REST OF THE WORLD, NOT SO EXPENSIVE, MID-CAP WE THINK IS ATTRACTIVELY PRICED IN THE STATES. YOU HAVE GOT TO PICK YOUR SPOTS BUT THE U.S. MARKET AS A WHOLE IS EXPENSIVE, BUT REMEMBER, PROFITABILITY THE LAST EQUITY AND RETURN ON EQUITY HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED IN THE UNITED STATES. THAT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER AS WELL. GUY: NANCY CURTIN, CIO AT ALTI TIEDEMANN GLOBAL, THANK YOU

VERY MUCH. SCHNEIDER FIRMLY IN FOCUS, CHANGING OF CEOS AT SCHNEIDER GENERATING A 1% MOVED TO THE DOWNSIDE, IN LINE WITH OTHER STOCKS AROUND EUROPE. NO VOTE WHICH REPORTS NUMBERS LATER THIS WEEK SOFT. LUXURY IS HOLDING UP DESPITE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CHINA. MAYBE THE ANTICIPATION WE DON'T GET STIMULUS DELIVERED THIS WEEK. ANNA: WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CHINA THIS WEEK. PICKING UP ON SOME OF THE LUXURY CLOTHING THEMES PERHAPS, HERE IS JOE EASTON. JOE: WE ARE SEEING BURBERRY THE BEST-PERFORMING STOCK IN EUROPE TODAY ON THE STOCK 600, UP 4.5%, IT WAS UP 7% OF

THE OPEN. THERE IS REPORTS IN THE FINANCIAL AND LUXURY BLOGGING WEBSITE CALLED MISS TWEED WHICH I WASN'T AWARE OF BEFORE TODAY. THAT IS REPORTING THAT POTENTIALLY MONCLER IS LOOKING AT THE U.K. COMPANY, MONCLER IN ITALY. LVMH'S BOSS RECENTLY INVESTED IN MONCLER AND THE REPORT SAYS HE WOULD BE IN FAVOR OF SUCH A DEAL. WE ARE SEEING A AGAIN, THE BEST PERFORMER IN EUROPE AT THE MOMENT. RYANAIR GOING THE OTHER WAY, COMING DOWN, THEY HAVE DOWNGRADED THEIR GUIDANCE FOR PASSENGER GROWTH. FOLLOWING MORE THAN IT WAS OF THE OPEN, NOW DOWN 3%. THE INTERESTING NOTE IS THIS

DOWNGRADE TO PASSENGER GROWTH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRICING ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS. THAT MIGHT TAKE FOR STAYING OUT OF THAT MOVE. BUT WE SEE STEEP DECLINE FOR RYANAIR THE MOMENT. WE MENTIONED THE OIL PRICE IS RISING POTENTIALLY, ADDING TO LOSSES FOR RYANAIR. WE HAVE THE MOVE HIGHER IN SHELL AND TOTAL WITH CRUDE FUTURES UP 2% OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THAT PLAYING INTO THE SAME THEME AT THE MOMENT. SCHNEIDER, GUY WAS RUNNING THROUGH THAT ONE A MOMENT AGO, SURPRISE CHANGE IN CEO. THE CEO HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE ROLE 18 MONTHS, SO THAT IS A SHOCK FOR THE

MARKET, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO THOSE LEGAL THINGS THAT WERE MENTIONED EARLIER, SO THAT WHEN COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. OVER IN MINING, WE'VE GOT SOME DEAL NEWS ON ANGLO. ANGLO OFFLOADING A THIRD OF A COMPANY IN AUSTRALIA ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT, IT IS WORTH AROUND A BILLION DOLLARS, SO PRETTY SIZABLE SELLING THAT FOR THE COMPANY LISTED IN LONDON. GAINING 1.5% OF THE MOMENT. THE MORNING CALLS. SOME INTERESTING ONES. THE MORGAN STANLEY DOWNGRADE IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON ST MICRO. THE ONLY BROKER RECOMMENDING SELLING ST MICRO. THE PRICE TARGET CHANGE WAS WHAT STOOD OUT, THEY ARE AT

35 EUROS FRIDAY, NOW AT 20, EVEN MORE DOWNSIDE EXPECTED FOR A STOCK THAT HAS DECLINED DUE TO THE DECLINING AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND. THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE SETTING FOR THAT MOVE. ANNA DID MENTION RECKITT EARLIER. THEY HAVE GOT DOWNGRADE TODAY OVER AT BERNSTEIN. ON FRIDAY, RECKITT HAD A BIG RALLY FOLLOWING NEWS ON THE BABY FORMULA LITIGATION. SOME POSITIVE UPDATE BUT ANALYSTS AT BERNSTEIN ARE SAYING THAT MOVE IS OVERDONE, SO THEY RECOMMEND YOU COME DOWN ON YOUR HOLDING IN THAT ONE, AND RECKITT FALLING 1.2% TODAY IN LONDON. ANNA: JOE EASTON FROM OUR EQUITIES TEAM WITH THE STOCKS

ON THE MOVE. MY EYE GOES THIS MORNING TO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR, BY FAR AND AWAY THE WORST PERFORMING IN EUROPE TODAY, AND THAT DOWNGRADE JOE WAS TALKING ABOUT TO ONE PARTICULAR STOCK ST MICRO COULD BE PART OF THE REASON BUT IT IS NOT LIMITED TO THAT. AS WE GO INTO THIS CONSEQUENTIAL WEEK FOR SO MANY REASONS. THE U.S. ELECTION FIRST AMONG THEM. THE INTEREST-RATE DECISIONS, BUT ALSO, THE EARNINGS STORIES OUT OF TECH. HOW WILL THE SECTOR CONTINUE TO DEFEND THE PRICED TO PERFECTION VALUATIONS? KRITI: ST MICRO IS FASCINATING. IT HAD A 35% DROP TWO WEEKS

AGO I THINK IN THE U.S., SO THERE IS THE VOLATILITY STORY WHICH IS WHAT TECH HAS NOT TRADITIONALLY BEEN GOING INTO AN ELECTION WEEK, IT HAS BEEN THAT SAFE HAVEN AND RIGHT NOW IT ISN'T. GUY: IS IT A VALUE TRADE? IS IT THAT KIND OF A TRADE STILL? THE VOLATILITY SEEMS TO BE INCREASING AROUND THIS SPACE WHICH IS INTERESTING. BE SEMI IS DOWN TWO POINT TWO, SEM DOWN 125, AND SEMI DOWN 1.58 - ASMI DOWN 1.58, THESE ARE DECENT MOVES FOR A SECTOR THAT HAS BEEN POSITIVE FOR QUITE SOME TIME, BUT YOU ARE REALLY SEEING

THE DIFFERENTIATION WITHIN THIS SPACE. ANNA: THE COMPANIES THAT ARE REALLY EXPOSED TO AI AND THOSE THAT ARE EXPOSED TO THE TROUBLES IN THE AUTO SECTOR. THOSE TWO ARE VERY DIFFERENT BUSINESS CASES AND WE WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT IN THE TECH SPACE. GUY: YOU HAVE VOLVO CARS THIS MORNING REPORTING WHAT NUMBERS OUT OF CHINA. AGAIN, THAT CONNECTION BETWEEN THOSE TWO ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING. KRITI: SINCE YOU MENTION VOLVO CARS, WE SHOULD MENTION THE SWEDISH INDEXES HAVE PERFORMING THE REST OF EUROPE, I'M NOT SUPER SURE WHAT IS DRIVING IT AT THE MOMENT. IT SEEMS LIKE A

MIX OF FACTORS, THE LIKES OF SWEDBANK, VOLVO AND OTHERS TRADING HIGHER BUT OUTPERFORMING THE REST OF THE MARKET BY QUITE A LITTLE BIT. WE WILL DIVE INTO OTHER STORIES IN JUST A FEW MINUTES. COMING UP, RYANAIR CUTTING HIS PASSENGER OUTLOOK AND IT IS BLAMING BOEING. WE WILL BRING OUR INTERVIEW WITH CFO NEIL SORAHAN NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ GUY: 21 MINUTES INTO THE SESSION. THIS IS WHAT EUROPEAN STOCKS LOOK LIKE. GOING NOWHERE IN A HURRY. THERE IS A FEW ANOMALIES IN SINGLE STOCK STORIES WE ARE WATCHING BUT THIS IS A MACRO STORY, AN ELECTION STORY,

A LATER ON THIS WEEK STORY. BUT SOME SINGLE STOCKS ARE WORTH FOCUSING ON, RYANAIR IS ONE OF THOSE. EUROPE'S LARGEST LOW-COST CARRIER, SHARES DOWN THIS MORNING, THE CARRIER CUTTING HIS PASSENGER GROWTH TARGET FOR NEXT YEAR. THE CFO NEIL SORAHAN SPEAKING TO TOM MACKENZIE EARLIER ON. THIS IS WHAT HE HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE OUTLOOK. >> REDO DO TO GET 11 AIRCRAFT IN THE QUARTER BETWEEN SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER, I DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE ANYMORE AIRCRAFT THIS SIDE OF JANUARY OR FEBRUARY. WE LOOK LIKE WE COULD BE LEFT SHORT 10 AIRCRAFT, POSSIBLY MORE, INTO PEAK SUMMER

OFF OF 2025, WE ARE PLANNING ON THE BASIS OF 210 MILLION PASSENGERS INSTEAD OF 215. WE HAD THE SITUATION THIS SUMMER AND LAST SUMMER WHERE WE WERE OVER CRUDE AND WE JUST DON'T WANT TO BE THERE AGAIN, SO EVEN IF WE GET MORE AIRCRAFT, WE WILL USE THOSE AS OPERATIONAL SPARES. I AM HOPEFUL RATHER THAN CONFIDENT I WILL SEE THOSE AIRCRAFT COMING IN AND WE ARE NOW PLANNING ON THE LOWER GROWTH. >> YOU ARE PLANNING ON 10 FEWER AIRCRAFT THAN YOU ARE EFFECTIVE FOR THE PEAK SUMMER SEASON NEXT YEAR? WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR PEARS

AND PRICING BECAUSE THEY HAVE COME DOWN 7% THE MOST RECENT QUARTER? >> IN FAIRNESS, THE DECLINES ARE MODERATING. BOOK IS STRONG INTO Q3, WE ARE MODESTLY DOWN, STILL MORE CAUTIOUS ON Q3 BUT IT IS IN A BETTER PLACE THAN IT WAS. WE HAD THE IMPACT IN Q1 OF THE ABSENCE OF EASTER. THE CONSUMERS HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH HIGHER INTEREST RATES FOR LONGER. THEY ARE STARTING TO UNWIND IN EUROPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THE CONSUMER SEEMS MORE CONFIDENT. CAPACITY IS CONSTRAINED. WE TALK ABOUT BOEING AND AIRBUS HAVING PROBLEMS GETTING AIRCRAFT OUT THE DOOR WITH THE

PRATT & WHITNEY ENGINE ISSUE. WE SEE CONSOLIDATION PLAYING OUT AT LUFTHANSA AND DAP WILL GO UP FOR SALE SO CAPACITY WILL BE STRAINED FOR SOME TIME, WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT POTENTIALLY MORE RISKS TO THE UPSIDE THAN THE DOWNSIDE ON PRICING. GUY: CFO AT RYANAIR NEIL SORAHAN TALKING TO TOM MACKENZIE EARLIER ON THIS MORNING, AFTER THEY POSTED NUMBERS AND DOWNGRADE OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT YEAR. LET'S GET A SENSE OF HOW THE VARIOUS PIECES OF THIS STORY FIT TOGETHER. GLOBAL AVIATION REPORTER SID PHILIP JOINING ON THE TABLE. RYANAIR IS BLAMING BOEING EFFECTIVELY. THEY ARE NOT GETTING

THE AIRCRAFT THEY WANT, THEREFORE THEY WILL NOT CARRY THE PASSENGERS THEY EXPECTED TO CARRY NEXT YEAR, IS THAT REASONABLE? IS RYANAIR'S FINGER-POINTING AT BOEING JUSTIFIED THIS MORNING? >> IT IS TO A LARGE EXTENT BECAUSE BOEING IS THE SOLE SUPPLIER OF RYANAIR. RYANAIR IS A NAME ALL 737 OPERATOR SO TO OFFER THEY CAPACITY THEY DO, THE FLAMES NEED TO COME IN AND THAT IS NOT HAPPENING BECAUSE OF BOEING'S ISSUES. GUY: IN TERMS OF THE SUPPLY-DEMAND DYNAMIC THEY ARE SAYING WE WILL NOT GET THE AIRCRAFT WE WANT, BUT FARES ARE SOFT, I WOULD'VE THOUGHT IF WE DO

NOT GET THE AIRCRAFT, THE FARES WOULD BE FIRMER BECAUSE THERE WOULD NOT BE THE CAPACITY -- THE CAPACITY IS NOT THERE TO REDUCE FARES. WE WILL NOT GET THE AIRCRAFT WE WANT, BUT FARES ARE STILL SOFT, THAT DOESN'T FIT TOGETHER LOGICALLY TO ME. >> WE ARE GOING TO THE SLOW SEASON RIGHT NOW. AIRLINES HAVE TO TYPICALLY SPUR FARES TO GET PEOPLE ON. THEY NEED TO DO DISCOUNTS. RYANAIR HAS SEEN A SLOW SUMMER THIS YEAR. THE SUMMER HAS BEEN MUCH WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY. THAT IS BECAUSE AIRLINES ARE STRUGGLING, PEOPLE HAVE STRUGGLED WITH COST-OF-LIVING AND HAVE DECIDED

NOT TO GO ON HOLIDAY INSTEAD OF PAYING ASTRONOMICAL FARES. THAT AIRLINES HAVE SEEN THAT AND HAVE HAD TO CUT FARES ACCORDINGLY. AT THE SAME TIME, RYANAIR WHEN THEY WANT TO SPUR DEMAND OFFER SERVICES TO PLACES OTHER AIRLINES DON'T REALLY FLY TO. SO FOR THEM, IT IS A BIT OF PUSH AND PULL. ANALYSTS ARE HOPING GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE IS FEWER AIRCRAFT, YIELDS WILL BE HIGHER. KRITI: IF THEY DO CUT THOSE FLIGHTS, WHO IS BENEFITING, IF ANYONE? >> THAT AIRLINES WILL BENEFIT, IF THERE IS FEWER FLIGHTS, THERE WILL BE MUCH HIGHER FARES. THAT IS A

DEMAND AND SUPPLY EQUATION. ANALYSTS ARE HOPING WHILE RYANAIR CUTS BACK ITS PACKET SERVER -- PASSENGER FORECAST, THEY WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE FARES AND GET MORE PROFITABILITY. ANNA: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF COMETS ARE ON THE BUDGET, O'LEARY NEVER HOLDS BACK ON THESE THINGS, HE CALLED IT IDIOTIC TO BE INCREASE ON PASSENGER DUTY BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THE INCREASE MAYBE NOT THAT BIG ON LOW-COST FARES? >> THE IMPACT COULD BE MUCH HIGHER ON RYANAIR VERSUS BRITISH AIRWAYS OR OTHERS WHO HAVE MUCH HIGHER FARES. THIS IS A TWO POUND PER PASSENGER ON

SHORTFALL FAIR -- SHORT HAUL FARES AND I COULD PUT OFF SOMEBODY LOOKING TO BUY FOR A FAMILY OF THREE OR FOUR. GUY: OUR BOEING WORKERS GOING BACK TO WORK TOMORROW? >> EVERYONE MUST SUE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. THE UNION RECOMMENDED THE WORKERS TAKE THE DEAL BECAUSE THEY SAID THERE MAY BE AWARE WORSE DEAL AT THE END OF THIS, THEY ASKED THE WORKERS TO TAKE 38%, SO LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS. GUY: WE WILL HAVE THAT RESULT FIRST THING TOMORROW MORNING. WE HAVE TO PRICE THAT IN. KRITI: THIS IS "THE OPENING TRADE." SEEING SOME GREEN ON THE

SCREEN WHEN IT COMES TO THE EQUITY MARKET. ALSO SEEING GREEN WHEN IT COMES TO THE COMMODITIES SPACE. WE ARE DIGESTING TWO DIFFERENT LINES OF NEWS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE IDEA THAT IRAN HAS FORMALLY SAID IT IS GOING TO TALK ABOUT A MORE COMPLEX ATTACK ON ISRAEL. THAT BOOSTING PRICES IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT OPEC+ SAID THEY WILL NOT INCREASE PRODUCTION. AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. BOTH OF THAT CREATING A TAILWIND INTO THE OIL STORY. BRENT CRUDE JUST SHY OF THE 75 HANDLE, NYMEX JUST SHY OF 72. I WANT TO LOOK DEEPER INTO ENERGY

POLICY THROUGH THE LENS OF THE UPCOMING U.S. ELECTION. HOW COULD POTENTIAL POLICY HAVE IT'S FROM KAMALA HARRIS OR DONALD TRUMP IMPACT EUROPE? WE ARE JOINED BY ANNE-SOPHIE CORBEAU, GLOBAL RESEARCH SCHOLAR AT THE COLUMBIA CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY, AND FORMER HEAD GAS ANALYSIS AT BP. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. LET'S START WITH THE OIL STORY. I WANT YOUR VIEWS ON NATURAL GAS. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT OIL AND THE MOVES WE ARE SEEING IN THIS MARKET BEING CUSHIONED BY THE FACT THAT SO MUCH EXCESS SUPPLY IN THIS MARKET IS PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES

WHICH IS THE NUMBER ONE EXPORTER OF THE WORLD. TALK ABOUT HOW THAT MAY CONTINUE UNDER A NEW PRESIDENT. NANCY: THIS IS VERY INTERESTING BECAUSE OIL AND GAS ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY SHAPED BY MARKET FORCES. I DON'T THINK MR. TRUMP OR MS. HARRIS BECOMING PRESIDENT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON OIL AND GAS SUPPLY. IT MAY BE DIFFERENT WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT U.S. DEMAND FOR OIL AND FOR NATURAL GAS BECAUSE MISSES HARRIS MAY HAVE A MORE STRICT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DECLINE IN U.S. OIL AND GAS DEMAND EVENTUALLY. IN TERMS OF SUPPLY, I

DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE MAYBE WITH ONE EXCEPTION ON METHANE EMISSION WHERE I EXPECT MRS. HARRIS TO BE MORE STRICT, BECAUSE THE U.S. ENTERED THE GLOBAL METHANE PLEDGE IN 2021. THIS IS SOMETHING HARRIS IS SEEN AS CONTINUING. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THINGS ARE EVOLVING RAPIDLY, SO WHOEVER IS PRESIDENT MAY HAVE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SITUATION IN JANUARY WHEN THEY ENTER OFFICE. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND. TWO MONTHS IS A VERY LONG TIME IN GEOPOLITICS. KRITI: WE WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THE GEOPOLITICS IN A MOMENT. I

WANT TO ZERO IN ON THE POINT YOU MADE ABOUT THE NAT GAS STORY, YOU MADE THE POINT THAT CANDIDATE HARRIS MAY BE FALLING IN LINE WITH THE POLICIES OF JOE BIDEN, BUT THAT DOES INCLUDE CONCERNS AROUND PIPELINES, FRACKING AND EXPORTS TO EUROPE AND THAT IS WHERE MY INTEREST LIES WHEN IT COMES TO A EUROPEAN AUDIENCE. THIS IDEA THAT SO MUCH OF THE EXPORT PICTURE OF THE UNITED STATES LNG THE LAST TWO YEARS SINCE THE ONSET OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE HAS BEEN WELL RECEIVED IN EUROPE IN THE ABSENCE OF SUPPLY FROM RUSSIA. DOES THAT CONTINUE

IF SOME OF THE BIDENS POLICIES ARE CONTINUED UNDER HARRIS? ANNE-SOPHIA: LET'S PUT THINGS BACK IN CONTEXT. THE U.S. IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST LNG EXPORTER AHEAD OF QATAR AND AUSTRALIA. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN SO AND IT WILL ACTUALLY DOUBLE LNG EXPORTS BASED ON THE FACILITIES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION. THIS IS A FACT, THIS IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. THERE IS A NEW LNG FACILITY STARTING, AT THE END OF THE YEAR WE WILL HAVE CORPUS CHRISTI, GOLDEN PASS IS DELAYED UNTIL 2026 BUT WE HAVE A LOT OF LNG COMING TO THE MARKET. THIS IS A FACT.

WHAT MR. BIDEN HAS DONE WHICH IS REFERRED TO AS LNG PAUSE IS BASICALLY SAYING ANY ADDITIONAL PROJECT CURRENTLY BEING REVIEWED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WILL STOP BECAUSE WE NEED TO DO A FULL REASSESSMENT. I AM PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FACT THAT THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY NEEDED TO DO REASSESSMENT. ESPECIALLY ON WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE IMPACT OF THIS HUGE AMOUNT OF LNG EXPORT ON THE DOMESTIC U.S. MARKET BECAUSE THE LAST THING WE WANT IS TO HAVE U.S. DOMESTIC GAS PRICES RISING. THIS IS ALSO SOMETHING THAT A U.S. PRESIDENT WOULDN'T WANT TO

SEE HAPPENING. WE HAVE NEW REGULATION IN TERMS OF METHANE IN EUROPE WHICH WILL BE EVENT FULL WITH U.S. LNG EXPORTS. WAS THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY RIGHT IN DOING THIS PAUSE? YES. WAS IT CORRECTIVE TO MAKE THAT AS A BIG POLITICAL STATEMENT AND USE THAT FOR THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS? PROBABLY NOT. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE THERE IS A LOT OF ENERGY COMING TO THE MARKET. NOT ONLY FROM THE U.S. BUT ALSO QATAR AND A LOT OF ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 300 BILLION METERS CUBIC OF LNG CAPACITY COMING TO THE MARKET BETWEEN 2034 -- 2024

AND 2030. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED. WHETHER U.S. LNG COMES TO EUROPE DEPENDS ON THE PRICES. WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020 ECONOMICS 101. PRICES WERE HIGH, LNG CAME TO EUROPE. GUY: IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU ARE SUGGESTING IT WILL BECOME A BUYERS MARKET WITHIN THE GAS PHASE, WHICH WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR EUROPE. WE HAVE THE GASIFICATION PLANTS IN PLACE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. IS THE U.S. GOING TO BE A RELIABLE PARTNER WHEN IT COMES TO GAS SUPPLY? THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL BE USING ALL LEVERS AT ITS DISPOSAL TO GET THE POLICIES IT WANTS TO SEE OUT OF

EUROPE. IS GAS GOING TO BE PART OF THE MIX? ANNE-SOPHIA: POTENTIALLY ASKED, BUT REMEMBER, A LOT OF LNG IS CONTRACTED BY A LOT OF COMPANIES. THEY CAN BE FROM EUROPE, FROM ASIA, INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES. THIS LNG IS SIMPLY OFF TAKEN AT THE EXIT OF THE LNG PLANT, THEN THE OFF TAKERS ARE TOTALLY FREE TO SEND IT WHEREVER THEY WANT. ECONOMICS 101, IF THE PRICES IN EUROPE ARE INDEED HIGHER, THEN LNG OFF TAKERS WILL SEND IT TO EUROPE, IF THE PRICES ARE HIGHER IN ASIA, THEY WILL SEND IT TO ASIA. THE BEAUTY OF U.S. LNG IS INDEED

WITH FLEXIBILITY. IF I WANT TO GO BACK TO HISTORY, WHEN THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN COMMISSION HAD THIS AGREEMENT THAT A LOT OF LNG WOULD BE SENT TO HELP THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION AND UNION BECAUSE OF THE DROP IN RUSSIAN GAS SUPPLIES. IT WAS JUST REALIZING THAT YES, THE ALLERGY WILL GO THERE, BUT THE PRESIDENT DOESN'T HAVE ANY POWER TO DICTATE WHERE THE LNG CARGOES WILL GO. IT IS NOT IN HIS POWER. THE POWER OF THE ADMINISTRATION IS TO GIVE THE AUTHORIZATION, OR NOT TO SEND THE LNG TO NON-FREIGHT AGREEMENT COUNTRIES AND ALL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE FREIGHT

AGREEMENT COUNTRIES FREE THE ONLY THING WHICH WOULD BE CONTROVERSIAL ARE IS THE METHANE RULES. I DON'T THINK HE WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH THAT. THAT MAY BE A PROBLEM EVENTUALLY FOR EUROPE. THAT WOULD BE AFTER A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BECAUSE IF MR. TRUMP IS SAYING DON'T CARE ABOUT METHANE, THERE IS NO WAY THAT U.S. LNG WILL BE READY IN TIME FOR WHEN THE NEW RULES ARE KICKING IN, IN 2027 AND ESPECIALLY 2030, BUT THAT WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR U.S. LNG EXPORTERS. ANNA: YOU SOUND QUITE CONVINCED THAT A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT USE LNG SUPPLIES AS A

TOOL OF FOREIGN POLICY. THAT'S YOUR ADVICE TO EUROPE? ANNE-SOPHIA: YES AND NO, BECAUSE AT THE SAME TIME, EUROPE WILL BE UNDER PRESSURE TO SIGN LONG-TERM AGREEMENTS. IN 2022, I AM FROM COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY BUT ALSO BASED IN EUROPE, I WAS RECEIVING CALLS FROM PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO BUILD NEW LNG EXPORT AND WAS WONDERING WHY ARE EUROPEAN USERS NOT SIGNING SOME LONG-TERM CONTRACTS WITH U.S. LNG PLANTS? THE TRUTH IS EUROPEAN OFF TAKERS ARE [INDISCERNIBLE] BECAUSE OF THAT HAD ZERO COMMITMENTS IN EUROPE AND THIS IS SOMETHING TRUMP DOESN'T LIKE. IT DOESN'T LIKE CLIMATE COMMITMENTS OR CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE

IT IS A HOAX. IT WOULD BE PUTTING PRESSURE ON INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES, AS HE DID DURING HIS PREVIOUS PRESIDENCY, WHY DON'T YOU SIGN LONG-TERM CONTRACTS WITH THE NEW PROJECTS WE ARE GOING TO BASICALLY AUTHORIZE? THERE ARE A LOT OF U.S. LNG PROJECTS WHICH ARE WAITING FOR COMMERCIAL AGREEMENT TO TAKE OFF. IT WOULD PUT PRESSURE ON GERMANY AND MAYBE COUNTRIES IN EASTERN EUROPE, ETC. ANNA: THAT SOUNDS QUITE TRANSACTIONAL. SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST AND MIGHT SEE AGAIN. TALK ABOUT THE BIG PICTURE POLICY AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE, WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO MEAN FOR

THAT? SOME PEOPLE HAVE POINTED TO THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT AND THE SUBSIDIES THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO CLEANER ENERGY AND SAID THESE ARE HAVING A BIG POSITIVE IMPACT IN RED STATES, AS A RESULT, TRUMP WON'T ROLL THOSE BACK. ANNE-SOPHIA: PARTIALLY. I AGREE, BUT FIRST TO PUT SOMETHING IN CONTEXT, THERE IS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND ALSO WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH CONGRESS. A PRESIDENT IS LIMITED BY WHO IS IN POWER AT THE CONGRESS. IF THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN POWER AT THE CONGRESS, AND ON TOP OF THAT, WE HAVE TRUMP IS A PRESIDENT, THEN HE HAS MUCH MORE POWER

THAN IF WE HAVE A DIVIDED CONGRESS. THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT WHICH IS LAW WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO REPEAL IF HE DOESN'T HAVE CONTROL OF CONGRESS. A LOT OF WHAT BIDEN HAS DONE IS ACTUALLY BENEFITING RED STATES. SOME HAVE SAID CLEARLY WE DON'T WANT THAT TO DISAPPEAR BECAUSE THIS IS HELPING US A LOT. I THINK THERE WOULD BE PROBABLY SOME -- IT WOULD MAKE DIFFICULT TO SPEND WHAT HAS NOT BEEN SPENT YET. IT WOULD MAKE CONSUMER TAX CREDIT, MAY BE ON EV'S ESPECIALLY, MORE DIFFICULT TO GET. THERE IS ALSO THE HYDROGEN TAX CREDITS WHICH HAVE TO

BE FINALIZED BUT THE END OF THE YEAR. WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THEM ALREADY MORE THAN ONE YEAR. IN TERMS OF EVERYTHING WHICH IS ABOUT CARBON CAPTURE, THAT WILL REMAIN, BECAUSE DEMOCRATS ARE IN FAVOR BUT REPUBLICANS ARE AS WELL, AND THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IS VERY MUCH IN FAVOR OF THAT. EVERYTHING WHICH IS ABOVE 45V WHICH IS BENEFITING RENEWABLE HYDROGEN WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME STRANGE RULES AT THE END OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF A TRUMP PRESIDENCY. KRITI: ONE FINAL QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE OTHER PIECES OF LEGISLATION THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS

PUT FORWARD. I WANT TO COME BACK TO THE NAT GAS PIPELINE STORY BECAUSE THIS HAS BEEN A POINT OF CONTENTION IN NEW YORK AROUND PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WILL GET BUILT AND POTENTIALLY HELP THE UNITED STATES EXPORT EVEN MORE NAT GAS BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN PAUSED, I AM CURIOUS HOW MUCH OF THAT IF KAMALA HARRIS IS ELECTED TO THE OVAL OFFICE, STAYS IN PLAY? ANNE-SOPHIA: MY THINKING AROUND THE ADDITIONAL LNG EXPORTS IS THAT SHE WILL AUTHORIZE POTENTIALLY WITH STRINGS ATTACHED. YOU HAVE TO GO BACK ONE YEAR AGO. WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO THE PAUSE WAS THIS REPORT

AT THAT POINT THAT U.S. LNG IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN COAL. AND THIS WAS A RED LIGHT FOR THE BIDED ADMINISTRATION, FOR DEMOCRAT ADMINISTRATION, BECAUSE UNTIL NOW THAT THINKING HAD BEEN THAT U.S. LNG WAS BENEFICIAL FOR THE CLIMATE BECAUSE IT WAS DISPLACING -- THAT REPORT BECAUSE OF THE METHANE EMISSION WAS SUDDENLY CHANGING THE WHOLE PICTURE. WHEN I AM SAYING STRINGS ATTACHED, I THINK THERE WOULD BE POTENTIALLY MORE CONSTRAINTS IN TERMS OF THE METHANE EMISSION. YES, YOU CAN EXPORT LNG BUT THAT GAS HAS TO BE CLEANER, AND ON TOP OF THAT CHEMICAL FACILITY HAS TO BE ALSO

LOWER EMISSION AND WE ARE SEEING THAT ALREADY HAPPENING. WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROJECTS, SOME ARE PLANNING TO USE CLEANER ELECTRICITY, OTHERS ARE PLANNING TO USE CCS LIQUEFACTION AND SOME ARE TALKING ABOUT [INDISCERNIBLE] NATURAL GAS. ANNA: GOOD TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE. GLOBAL RESEARCH SCHOLAR AT THE COLUMBIA CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY. 840 FOR HERE IN LONDON. WITH THE U.S.-CHINA AND TRADE WAR IN FULL SWING, WHO WOULD BEIJING PREFER TO BE IN THE WHITE HOUSE? WE WILL LEAVE YOU WITH A REMINDER OF WHAT BOTH TRUMP AND HARRIS HAVE HAD TO SAY ON TRADE

RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO. >> TARIFF, TARIFF. I AM A TARIFF MAN. THE MOST BEAUTIFUL WORD IN THE DICTIONARY IS TARIFF. >> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RESULTED IN A TRADE DEFICIT. ONE OF THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICA. >> I WANT TO CUT TAXES ON AMERICANS WHILE PUTTING TARIFFS ON CHINA AND FOREIGN COUNTRIES. >> FOCUSING ON RELATIONSHIPS WITH OUR ALLIES. GUY: WELCOME BACK TO "THE OPENING TRADE." AROUND 24 HOURS UNTIL THE START OF THE U.S. ELECTION PROCESS. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN VOTING BEFOREHAND VIA THE POSTAL VOTES, BUT IN PERSON VOTING KICKS OFF THIS TIME

TOMORROW. IT IS GOING TO BE AN EXCITING 24-48 HOURS. U.S. MARKETS BARELY BUDGING AT THE MOMENT, EUROPEAN MARKETS BARELY BUDGING, THE FTSE OUTPERFORMING A LITTLE BIT. SHELL AND BP DOING THE HEAVY LIFTING. CHINA RELATIONS GOING TO BE PIVOTAL. RELATIONS HAVE FACED MULTIPLE CHALLENGES IN RECENT YEARS. BOTH PARTIES ARE SIGNALING THEY WILL TAKE A TOUGH STANCE TOWARDS BEIJING. OUR CHIEF NORTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT STEPHEN ENGLE LOOKS AT HOW THE ELECTION IS BEING VIEWED IN CHINA'S CORRIDORS OF POWER. ♪ >> WHILE BEIJING LIKELY ISN'T ENAMORED WITH EITHER DONALD TRUMP OR KAMALA HARRIS, THE CHINESE LEADERS ARE NOT SHOWING

THEIR HAND, IT WOULD BE OVERLY SIMPLIFIED TO ASSUME CHINA WOULD PREFER CONTINUITY OVER UNPREDICTABILITY. LIKE THE ENTIRE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP, IT IS FAR MORE COMPLEX. >> FROM A BEIJING STANDPOINT, THEY WOULD PREFER TRUMP AS PRESIDENT THAN THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE. THE TRACK RECORD SHOWS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS NOT AS ANTI-CHINA AS HE IS PERCEIVED TO BE. >> YET TRUMP HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE WOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE A HARD-LINE APPROACH ON TRADE WITH CHINA THREATENING SIZABLE TARIFF INCREASES ON ALL CHINESE EXPORTS. >> OUTSIDE OF LOVE AND RELIGION, IT'S THE MOST BEAUTIFUL WORD THERE IS. TARIFF! >> HE

HAS THIS CRAZY, CRAZY NOTION THAT PUTTING A TARIFF ON 60% ON EVERY SINGLE PRODUCT IMPORTED FROM CHINA IS A GOOD IDEA. THIS MAN HAS SO LITTLE UNDERSTANDING OF TARIFFS, HE THINKS THAT CHINA PAYS FOR THEM. >> INFLATION NO DOUBT IS ON THE MIND OF U.S. VOTERS. HARRIS BLASTED THE FORMER PRESIDENT'S TARIFF PLANS AS A TRUMP SALES TAX. YET THE CURRENT BIDED ADMINISTRATION HAS MAINTAINED TRUMP ERA TARIFFS ON $360 BILLION OF CHINESE GOODS AND ADDED BILLIONS MORE ON OTHER CHINESE PRODUCTS, INCLUDING ELECTRIC VEHICLES. PERHAPS BY DESIGN NOT TO ANTAGONIZE AMERICAN WORKERS IN MANUFACTURING SWING STATES, HARRIS

HAS BEEN LESS SPECIFIC ON WHAT HER TRADE PER D'S WOULD BE -- REPEATING THAT AMERICA MUST BUILD ITS COMPETITIVE EDGE OVER CHINA IN CRITICAL SECTORS LIKE ADVANCED COMPUTING AND SEMICONDUCTORS. >> THE THIRD PILLAR OF OUR OPPORTUNITY ECONOMY IS LEADING THE WORLD IN THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE. AND MAKING SURE AMERICA, NOT CHINA, WINS THE COMPETITION FOR THE 21ST CENTURY. >> THERE IS A NARRATIVE THAT WAS PREVAILING WHEN THIS ADMINISTRATION TOOK OFFICE THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS ON THE VERGE OF BEING SURPASSED BY CHINA AS AN ECONOMIC POWER. THAT UNITED STATES INFLUENCE WAS WANING IN THE

WORLD, THAT CHINA'S INFLUENCE WAS ON THE RISE. >> GEOPOLITICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA HANG IN THE BALANCE. NO ONE ENSURES FIRST SURE HOW EITHER CANDIDATE WILL DEAL WITH CONTENTIOUS ISSUES LIKE TAIWAN, THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST. NOT TO MENTION TRADE POLICIES BASED ON NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS. >> IF KAMALA HARRIS COMES IN, WE WILL HAVE CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT POLICY DRIVEN BY THE NATIONAL SECURITY LOBBY. TO ME, THIS IS THE POLICY THAT HURTS CHINA THE MOST. >> OR DOES IT? CHINA IS NOT SAYING. >> WE HAVE REPEATEDLY STATED THAT WE

DO NOT COMMENT ON U.S. ELECTIONS AND OPPOSE ANY U.S. INDIVIDUALS MAKING AN ISSUE OF CHINA DURING THE ELECTIONS. >> AT SOME POINT, WE KNOW CHINA WILL INEVITABLY TAKE A STAND REGARDLESS OF WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. STEPHEN ENGLE, BLOOMBERG MEANS. -- NEWS. GUY: IT'S GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING FEW DAYS FOR CHINA. IT IS GOING TO BE WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE ELECTION. IT IS ALSO GOING TO BE WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE MPC . WHICH OF THOSE FACTORS WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON CHINESE MARKETS? ANNA: REALLY INTERESTING THAT THE ANALYSIS

FROM STEPHEN ENGLE -- TAKING US BACK TO THE CONVERSATION AROUND ENERGY MARKETS, THAT IT IS SOMETIMES DIFFICULT TO ASSESS WHAT TRUMP WILL BE LIKE ON ANY PARTICULAR POLICY PLATFORM. YOU HAVE TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE RHETORIC FROM THE TRANSACTIONAL NATURE OF THE POLITICS AND THE WAY IT HAS PLAYED OUT PREVIOUSLY. KRITI: ALSO FASCINATING, THE PACKAGE MADE A POINT THAT POLICY MIGHT NOT CHANGE AT ALL. THE STATUS QUO WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASED A TARIFF PICTURE MAY JUST BE THE STATUS QUO, HOW MUCH MORE CAN YOU REALLY ADD WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL? GUY: WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE

MAKEUP OF CONGRESS WILL LOOK LIKE. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WILL LOOK LIKE. WE DON'T KNOW AT THIS POINT. AND CHINA DOESN'T KNOW EITHER. IT CAN MAKE CALCULATIONS. THE OTHER FACTORS THAT ARE IN THE MIX HERE ARE WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH UKRAINE, WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH NORTH KOREAN TROOPS, WHAT IMPACT IS CHINA HAVING ON THAT? THERE IS SO MANY OTHER COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE MIX. THE U.S. ELECTION IS JUST ONE OTHER WILDCARD. ANNA: WE WILL SEE HOW INVESTORS GLOBALLY PLAY ALL OF THOSE ANGLES ON THE ELECTION, AS KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP MAKE

THEIR FINAL CASE TO VOTERS, THE FINANCE INDUSTRY IS GAMING OUT THE IMPLICATIONS OF A HISTORICALLY CLOSE RACE THAT COULD SWING POLICY. MANY TRADING DESKS ARE BEING STAFFED THROUGH THE NIGHT. JOINING TO DISCUSS MARKET SUPPORT OR VALERIE TYTEL WITH DETAILS. HOW ARE INVESTORS PREPARING? SOME INVESTORS TODAY SAYING THEY ARE TRYING TO PARE BACK EXPOSURE TO THE EXTENT THAT IS POSSIBLE. >> FOR MANY FUNDS, THIS IS BEEN A WEEKS LONG MAY BE-LONG PREPARATION OF PREPARING MODELS, JUST HOW THE MARKET COULD BE. EVEN RUNNING ASSIMILATION'S WITH POLITICAL CONSULTANTS ON AT ONE POINT COULD WE GET A SWING TOWARDS

HARRISON A BIG SWING TOWARD TRUMP BECAUSE THAT FOR MANY OTHERS, THE DISLOCATIONS COULD BE WHERE THE VALUE LIES. SOME TRADERS ARE SAYING THEY ARE NOT WATCHING THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, THEY ARE FOCUSED ON CONGRESS AND THEIR TRADING BOOK IS MORE ATTUNED TO SWINGS THERE, A REPUBLIK AND SWEET VERSUS DIVIDED CONGRESS. -- REPUBLICAN SWEET VERSUS DIVIDED CONGRESS. THEY ARE CURING TO TRADE IT. WE COULD GET INFORMATION OUT DURING ASIAN MARKETS AND THEY ARE NOW NOT TO PICK UP ON ALL THE NUANCES OF THE U.S. POLITICAL STORY, SO THERE COULD BE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY TO PUT IN

TRADES, IF TRADERS ARE KNEBEL AND GETTING READY FOR THAT KIND OF GAME PLAN. GUY: HOW STAFF WILL U.S. DESKS BE? >> MANY ARE PREPARED TO DO ALL NIGHTERS. SOME TRADERS TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WILL TAKE CAP APPS ON COUCHES. JP MORGAN PLANS TO INCREASE STAFFING IN EUROPE AND ASIA IN CASE THERE IS A BIG SURGE IN VOLUME AND U.S. DESKS NEED TO BE SUPPORTED IN OTHER AREAS. GOLDMAN HAS HUNDREDS OF SALES AND TRADING TEAMS ON SITE IN NEW YORK THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERE IS ONE MAJOR INVESTMENT BANK SAYING THEY ARE HALTING ANY TECHNOLOGY UPDATES DURING

THIS WEEK BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT ANY TRADING GLITCHES HAPPENING DURING THESE VOLATILE SESSIONS. KRITI: IT WILL BE A FASCINATING ONE. ARE THEY HAPPENING ON THE CURRENCY MARKET, THE BOND MARKET? THAT WAS THE CASE IN 2020. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT PLUS THE SLEW OF EARNINGS AND CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS AROUND THE WORLD. THAT WILL BE COVERED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE U.S. ELECTION WILL BE FRONT OF MIND. PLENTY OF EUROPEAN NATIONS, GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND INVESTORS ALIKE, PAYING ATTENTION TO A. EUROPEAN STOCKS BEARING EARLY GAINS.