Nothing We Have Not Seen Before

hello followers of the four-year Journey this is Bob Lucas here on February 26 2025 with another installment of the 4-year journey I hope you've all been well first of all and had a great holiday period thanks for tuning back in I do apologize that it's been over 3 months since the last video to be honest with you I hadn't seen any real need to do another video up until I guess last week certainly the last few days here with a breakdown in bitcoin's price and we're certainly feeling the shift in sentiment here as a lot

of people beginning to fear a top a major top in the Bitcoin cycle so a lot of this video is going to talk about kind of the ebb and flow between fear Euphoria I want to spend some time actually talking a little bit about alts not going over alt charts but just talking about alts and how I think they're mostly dead there isn't a retail case there isn't a retail flow but that's all Al okay for Bitcoin I think we want to talk a little bit about the decoupling of Bitcoin as an asset class to

crypto as a whole I know Maxis or Bitcoin only folks have always viewed it like that but the market hasn't up until I think this cycle we'll talk a little bit about that then I'll get into the bull phase where I do believe this 4year cycle is still tracking well on and it's on track for a expansion or a continuation higher in this 4year cycle and then lastly I'll cover the model portfolio have some targets added now we're looking to start to unwind a lot of the position if of course assuming that we get another

leg a big leg higher in this fouryear cycle and begin to start looking at taking profit in that 4year cycle um if you like these videos they only come out every couple of months or so where there's a need I do Post three times per week on bitcoin live which is a site uh on bitcoin analysis and altcoin Analysis that is in the link or in the comment section below if you're interested so let's get stuck into the video again thanks for being here so as I record this video bitcoin's at 87,000 down from an

all-time high of around 110 so R about 22% draw down as I record which historically even for this 4E cycle is basically right on the averages for this cycle around the 20% draw down from a high and in Prior 4year Cycles we would see 30 to 40% draw Downs in the rising portion of a bull market consistently and that was pretty much the nature of Bitcoin this chart here is is a simple illustration of for example a couple of intertwine Cycles on different varying time lengths the blue one here just for for argument sake here

representing the four-year cycle so over a longer period of time you have the rising portion of the cycle and then this is a smooth line of course and then the declining phase of the cycle within that you have shorter duration Cycles like the weekly cycle that typically runs around a six-month average and that will oscillate as price goes up in the fouryear cycle and then of course continue to oscillate as price in the fouryear cycle begins to decline the key distinction here is that for these weekly Cycles as the fouryear cycle is rising most of

these weekly Cycles spend the majority of the time or two-thirds of the time in a rising structure and then they correct right sentiment in the short term becomes very bullish very euphoric everyone is excited people start adding late to positions they start buying things like meme coins and old coins they start to get greedy and then you get a short-term top the weekly cycle turns and then we move lower again so that repeats itself and repeats itself up until the eventual peak in the fouryear cycle and then what happens on the way down it's just

the same in Reverse where we spend a lot of the time in a declining nature shorter period rise ing in the in the declining foure cycle and mostly sentiment is pessimistic for the majority of those weekly Cycles this is the E and the flow of Cycles as they're intertwined and this decline that we're currently experiencing unless you expect or believe that the fouryear cycle has peaked which I do not I don't do not see any evidence of this at the moment we are at or near the bottom of one of the oscillating weekly cycles and

this is simply coming off a period here where we have a new Administration in the US a very crypto or Bitcoin bullish Administration with talking or talk of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve possibly even purchasing Bitcoin outright for a sovereign fund but also actions on the SEC front and regulations that are all very Pro crypto and Pro Bitcoin that got us up and pumped up meme coins and everything else and we got to a local high here in December in January and now as has been the case pretty much since the beginning of bitcoin's inception we're

in one of these periods where that excess sentiment is being worked off and we're now moving down towards this very pessimistic phase of the weekly cycle so I'm going to start with a weekly chart I don't often cover the weekly chart in these videos I do like to focus on the monthly and the four-year cycle but coming off that chart I just shared with the weekly cycle intertwined with the 4-year cycle what you see here are these blue arrows representing the lows of the weekly Cycles since the bare Market low back in November 22 and

we've had 1 2 3 four five and about to complete the fifth of these weekly Cycles in what is a market on the fouryear cycle time frame that is rising so you see the rising nature of this fouryear cycle and what you see around that is this intertwined weekly cycle that is spending a good portion of that of that cycle in a rising Manner and then you get the the declining phase of that cycle that serves to essentially punish those that came in late of each of those Cycles reset sentiment and then begin the next

Rising portion of the cycle and it's my belief right here as we sit 25 weeks since the last major low that one being in September um where we had this 105% move I believe what is occurring right now is what has occurred so many times in bitcoin's history is that we're in one of these weekly cycle declining phases where we we are getting sentiment back into this very negative pessimistic place for the cycle to be reborn and a new weekly cycle to begin this just represents pretty clearly the EB and flow nature of the markets

and how after a now 10-week period of mostly moving sideways we're now into this sort of mini capitulation mode of it coming down what's interesting to note though is even though there's quite a bit of fear out there maybe less fear within the Bitcoin holder Community versus anybody or everybody else that's mostly in altcoins from what I can tell there's still a decent amount of fear that's creeping in on the Bitcoin front and all I can say for now is that we are from the highs around 21 maybe 22% off that Peak the decline last

summer this was a longer period around 30% the decline back a year ago 20% and a couple of 20% declines also in 2023 so we've seen a 20 a 20 and a 20 32s this is the 420 and a 30% decline in this 4year cycle so until I see evidence otherwise that suggests that this fouryear cycle has peaked I the timing of this weekly cycle suggests to me that we are experiencing one of these periods where we are in a declining phase into a weekly cycle low before moving higher the problem with this if you're

looking at short-term timing is that we don't know how deep a move in the very short term could could go there's no reason why this current move as I record couldn't drop all the way down to the low 80s and there's a more of an outside chance that it could also fall back into the 70s coming back to tag the high a year ago March 2024 which was also the weekly cycle high back in March and that one is down at 73 I think that's a little too extreme I don't think we get down to

that level but the point is when you're invested in an asset class with this type of volatility an asset that over a short period of time like this 15we period can rise 105% then and a draw down of 30 to even 40% is something within the range and should not come necessarily as a major surprise and should not at least initially have you thinking that the market has peaked a move down of 30% right now here gets you to 75,000 uh 30% declines in the last fouryear cycle and certainly the one in 2016 and 2017

which I think this cycle mirrors much better had around 630 plus% draw Downs while it was in the rising portion of the cycle so it's always good to keep that in mind because again if you're going to hold an asset like this if you're going to hold Bitcoin part of your success is going to be in being able to ride out those storms if you're one that took this 30% decline here over the summer and sold based on fear that we're going to enter into a recession or any other reason that you convince yourself then

you would have sold at around about that $50,000 level and saw Bitcoin double since then and still be up a healthy from these lows still be up a healthy 64% in that period so it it comes with the territory as they say until we have a top in the fouryear cycle I think we have to just Grim grim and bear this and see it through and then we should be in in a position for the next weekly cycle to begin and to start pushing up to all-time high territory again and moving forward I think a

lot of the fear that I'm seeing out there a lot of the comments I receive through my service also on Twitter um has a lot to do with allcoins and how allcoins have essentially decoupled from Bitcoin itself and the performance of Bitcoin is shown of course there are always some exceptions but as a whole the total market cap or the total ecosystem outside of Bitcoin is really not performing anything like it has in Prior cycles and and many participants even the big Bitcoin Believers I know have some allocation or decent allocations to all coins but

many many people in this space have significant allocations and they are essentially suffering here and without any real use cases there was this whole meme coin which I don't call a use case but it was what kept interest that seems to have died here it looks as if the Trump coin was the top of that which is probably not surprising in hindsight since then it's been scam after scam after scam then some of the other narratives from prior Cycles like Defi and nfts and icos and and gaming and so many others have really come and

gone and failed to deliver failed to bring in a broad retail adoption that when you have such a higher market cap in the altcoin space is needed it's only there only so much an old crypto Community a tired crypto Community can sustain and drive a market higher especially when you start talking no longer a billion or two billion or 50 billion when now talking you know a trillion dollars worth of market cap it's a lot of capital uh that's sitting out there to sustain and to hold value uh without a real retail use case where

people are coming to use these Solutions or these applications not for farming of a coin and so on but actually because they find real value in these and they want to use these applications we're just not seeing any of that and I think this is the reason why we now seeing a significant decoupling between what Bitcoin is as an asset which many of course you know have always known and believed but Bitcoin is become or has become a true institutional asset class that has attracted uh Pension funds big institutions that weren't crypto focused and and

not even Tech Focus for per se we now have of course sovereigns even possibly central banks s Sovereign wealth funds as I mentioned so it's it's gotten broader Syria Capital has come into this place and we are now going to need more and more of that to sustain bitcoin's rise but it is my view that this allcoin space is dragging down a lot of the sentiment and I think you're going to see that Divergence continue here now there's probably going to be a period in this four-year cycle if we continue moving higher that there'll be

some type of recovery in the allcoin space but really I think they are mostly uh there's just too much Supply too many narratives too many ideas too many people trying to essentially steal from each other or take from each other and they're very P PVP sort of environment and uh I don't think that's sustainable so this is about Bitcoin let's leave all that behind and not let that experience or that performance taint what we're seeing on bitcoin because as I mentioned on bitcoin the chart here still looks pretty good um I see no reason for

concern when I flip to the monthly so first of all the major sort of trend here is respected we're still in the rising portion we saw an all-time high only last month we're at the 10-month rising moving average and I don't see I haven't seen any major sort of euphoric moment blowoff kind of like moment in this 4year cycle what came a little close was basically a year ago into the all-time high that was set March 2024 but is my opinion that the fact that we didn't break down from that period we had a solid

7mon consolidation below the prior all-time high and then went off in another move that didn't get at all extens didn't extend itself all that far in the end didn't show five six straight months um of of excessive sentiment uh to me this looks like just yet another step up so we've seen these levels throughout this bull market where we had the initial move of the 4year cycle low we built a nice level here over four maybe five months then we had another move up we got a bit of consolidation right there we had a secondary

move up this was the first half of the fouryear cycle move it peaked for the first half of the fouryear cycle declined into the the midpoint of a 4year cycle if you look at kind of where that fell from a month standpoint it came in around about the month 22 so right near the midpoint of the fouryear cycle and now this should be this is the second half of the fouryear cycle which traditionally has been the more euphoric the big bull phase of the fouryear cycle I know it always looks sort of it looks pretty

scary when you have a decline like this but they happen they come and if anything they just serve to reset sentiment on uh on the way up and make the bull market more sustainable now I do get quite a few posts or notes of concern from people about yield curve inversion and recession possibilities and tariffs and so on and so on and all I can say to that is that I've been hearing that pretty much since the this bull market began um and the market has continued to follow the cycle it's not a guarantee that

this cycle will look and feel exactly like the prior Cycles have where it Peaks around that month 35 give or take a few months in either side forms a fully right translated cycle meaning that it right or at least maybe 2/3 or 3/4 of the way into the cycle before declining into the bare Market phase there is zero guarantee and I try and make a point in every video that I've done pretty much in the last almost six years now that there is no guarantee of that but it is following that script it is following

that structure it is behaving like it has behaved in Prior cycles and therefore I tend to want to put more weight in the probability or more likely more so the possibility that this cycle is following the script of Prior Cycles there's going to be a time as I've shared also many times in the past that a 4year cycle is not going to be a 35 Monon move from the bottom up and then a 12 month or 13mon decline to a bare Market low there's going to be Cycles fouryear Cycles in the future that look vastly

different but to to me at this point this cycle still looks a lot like the prior cycles and especially a lot like the cycle of 16 and 17 not perfect but very similar consistently grinding up and then getting to a point near the end where the move accelerated so if it's going to look like prior Cycles then I think once this period here of decline comes to an end whether that's right now like today around this $86,000 level or whether it has to drop to 80 or maybe the mid 70s I don't have the answer

to that I don't think anybody does but whenever this comes to an end and sentiment is cleared I believe we'll get another move up and this trend on the fouryear cycle will continue again I see no reason why that H has has ended that this Market is in a topping motion at this point uh price action certainly doesn't warrant that type of judgment or call maybe fear does a lot of people do act and think based on fear fear of losing what is a good position that they've had or sitting on highly profitable position from

a open profit perspective that starts to weigh on the mind as the bull market keeps on going higher there's also that PTSD from prior Cycles where you look back and say oh if I only had sold I would had so much more you're not going to ever time the top perfectly in any Market that goes without saying and also what goes with saying is that a market ultimately can do absolutely anything it wants to do it's a humbling force that nobody has the answers for so my analysis here has always been about finding repetitive structures

or repetitive price action over cycles and looking that as a looking to that as an edge trying to get in as best as possible when people are finally dumping and capitulating holding that for as long as possible and trying to extract the maximum amount of value that we can in the cycle in preparation for a rinse and repeat an e and flow back down to the next period or next decline back down to the next bare Market low for um the next 4year cycle to begin hopefully being able to cap near those loads again and

so over a long period of time being able to one take advantage of the rising cap market cap of Bitcoin over multiple fouryear cycles and using these fouryear Cycles to be able to gain additional Bitcoin as a result so with that said as I mentioned humbling Force I don't have I can't say with any certainty can't say it absolutely that we haven't seen a top in this market I personally give it a lower possibility uh it's it but it is a real probability a probability that the market is peaked so people ask often how would

you know and the problem is when you have an asset class that can give us 30% draw Downs in an uptrend you really have to give it a lot of room and and it basically says that you have to draw down significant amount in theory before being able to say definitively that the market has peaked uh and even then that's not fullprof for example back here in 2021 we had a significant drop then back to alltime highs you can still get a significant drop and then continue moving higher so that's is why I say with

an asset class with such volatility unless you get the absolute top like we get a 17 like move where I do believe that would have been or that was uh a much easier Market to predict for a peak uh it's going to be very difficult to in real time find the absolute Peak but what we could be look what we could look for here is a situation going back to the weekly chart as a guide where if we can see this Market bottom out let's just for argument sake say next week at 81,000 it could

be today but it could be next week it's relevant we formed this weekly cycle low sentiment is completely in the gutter by that point and then we make a move up and I think what you would see if this Market has already peaked and already formed the top in the fouryear cycle is you'd have a sharp aggressive counter Trend move right here and I don't know how far that would take you maybe takes you back to 103 105 maybe it makes a brief alltime High it's irrelevant what it does but once you once we see

the beginning of a new weekly cycle here the early phase of that and it begins to Peak early and rolls over so it doesn't continue doing this higher to the next next weekly cycle Peak but instead at this point comes back down to this 990,000 level comes back down and takes out this level this low that forms wherever that forms whether it's today or next week or the week after we don't know but wherever this forms and takes this out then this to me becomes your topping pattern so we should be looking for a market

that does something similar to Prior weekly Cycles forms the bottom and moves forms the bottom and then moves up right we should be looking at that and that's what that blue line represents that's a continuation of the four-year cycle that is the E and flow of the cycle if we get this move up over the next let's call it three to 8 weeks to a April or May period and then rolls over and takes out this level that to me would be extremely concerning and essentially is is what's called a failed weekly cycle and a

failed weekly cycle is where the uh we don't see a higher high in the weekly cycle time frame and you see a lower low that indicates a change in Trend and therefore a change in trend on the 4-year cycle time frame so until that happens until we see something like that which we won't be able to see for at least another month possibly two months I'm of the opinion that this 4-year cycle is mirroring prior fouryear cycles and therefore this is a cleansing period that we're experiencing today right here and a continuation of this fouryear

cycle is directly ahead in either the coming week or coming weeks and that sets up for essentially the final bull phase of this 4year cycle we're in now year three of the cycle we are sitting on month 27 since the bare Market low and if the narrative right here is that this is following prior fouryear Cycles then we start to look at where prior fouryear Cycles have peaked and that would be around about the October time frame of this year so we are getting close to that and in fact we are just months a few

months historically at least around eight months from that fouryear cycle Peak and when you look at it on the weekly time frame these weeklies typically go for like I said around 24 weeks they do vary quite a bit but um if you look at the next weekly cycle up to a high if it follows prior Cycles where it Rose for around about 90% off the lows uh if you get down to an $80,000 level and you rise by around 90,000 it's po potentially possible that by May to June time frame over a 16we period this

weekly cycle can Peak maybe around the $50,000 level Then followed by your sort of 20% or more draw down as you can see these draw Downs get massive from a nominal standpoint so you start talking about 30,00 ,000 draw downs but which essentially are 20 and 30% down into a weekly cycle low a period of again EB and flow and resetting of sentiment but then by that point when you're looking at the summer late summer months now you're getting very close to your traditional 4-year cycle High not leaving a lot of time between late August

and October and this is where I would think again this is only if it follows script follow prior Cycles but then we' be looking at a final launch a final speculative cycle that doesn't run very long from a weekly cycle standpoint and runs up to a peak again I want you to kind of ignore the numbers we're looking more at time than anything else and we're following the structure okay respecting the EB and Flow nature of the market as it moves up dissected by a 4-year cycle trend line that runs through that to a peak

that then eventually gets followed by the bare phase of the fouryear cycle and that goes back to the Chart I shared with you originally from an intertwined cycle perspective so all this to say that staying patient staying invested uh believing in the fouryear cycle but also understanding that yes you know it's come a long way and there are signs out there of excess we have obviously like I mentioned Trump with his own coin scam celebrities doing meme coins and so on and so on there are signs we're also getting later in the cycle we're already

a right translated cycle No Matter How This Ends up we have come to a point where if this was the peak it would be past the midpoint of the cycle it's also comfortably above the high of the last foure cycle so we' we've already fulfilled the sort of right translative fouryear cycle narrative or expectation that we had in the beginning of the cycle what we're looking for now is that final piece that mirrors what it's done in Prior Cycles but as I mentioned there are no guarantees of that there are no absolutes in analysis and

anything is possible I'm sticking with what I believe the cycle is doing and we're are try going to try to be as Nimble as possible in identifying that the market has peaked and looking to then um unwind positions as a result uh so until that point we follow this script we follow this narrative and uh and we stay in position we don't allow short-term weakness short-term fear and short-term capitulation to crowd into our long-term mindset we have on the fouryear cycle investing we do few buys and few sells over years we don't trade over months

certainly not weeks or days therefore we shouldn't be trapped in what Bitcoin is doing over a short period of time because if we look back just to November Bitcoin was at 69,000 October which was only 4 months 5 months ago down to a 58,000 and just in September which wasn't that long ago 51,000 so we ignore the shortterm fear we widen the lens as I like to say and we accept that bitcoin's a volatile asset class and it's going through one of its volatile periods as we speak so so flipping over to the model portfolio

which you can find on bitcoin. live I have a link also in the comment section below um looking at the first sell of the fouryear cycle currently at 153,000 is the number listed now that's probably going to change over the week it's going to depend on where this local or current decline comes to an end but as I mentioned the target for the the first sale is based on the idea that each of these weekly Cycles have gone up around 90% to 100% so looking for a move of around 80% to be comfortable in taking

profit from wherever this low forms so a move right now from this point to around 80% gets us to around this 153,000 level understanding that if we get a major blowoff that might be to low and that's okay I'm going to be okay with that because at least I think we'd be selling a portion of the portfolio on a local euphoric kind of move right an 80% move from where we are now gets us to a position similar to where we saw other weekly Cycles Peak so we want to try and capture a big move

over a 12 to 16 we period to an area where we are getting very close to that to that October 35 month level even though I'd be well short of that but a level where we start to say that's enough I'll take the extraction here I'll take profit and then put that aside and let's see what else the cycle can give us and if it can follow prior markets prior cycles and give us something like that and even if it gives us a good draw down from that point we can look for one more final

move and then look to draw another level where we would take profit so on the 4-year cycle portfolio um looking and adding added the target cell here again that's going to change um of 21 BTC in this model and which represents half of the model portfolio that goes into if it does trigger into a cash position and then we let the rest of the cycle unfold now depending on how this unfolds I did share with you kind of a bare Outlook right if we do manage to get this low form and then any clear evidence

that a new weekly cycle has begun say a move back to 100 or so then I'll be adding a stop Target for getting out of a position and that may include a stop for the sale of the entire model portfolio a good big portion of that so be aware of that that will only get updated after the fact after we get some type of clear evidence of a low some type of rally at that point leaving behind a defined low from which we can anchor a stop from so in summary I just want to say

that I know when Bitcoin goes into a draw down like this of 20 plus percent that your mind starts racing and you start freaking out about locking profit taking profit and being secure in that sense and that's okay if you've maybe made a lot and there's a way to secure some of your future this is not a bad spot okay it's not the end of the world in if it goes to a good cause like paying down a mortgage buying a home where you've been renting uh securing a level of Financial Freedom um that this

could afford you to do there's nothing wrong with doing that because there will be other bull markets not just in Bitcoin but in general in investing they come around often and frequently there'll be more opportunities so if it makes you feel comfortable in doing that you can do that with a portion or even if you have to sell some of your portfolio to put your mind at ease and as I said Bank something buy another good performing asset with it there's nothing ever wrong with that but otherwise it's mostly fear right and don't forget we've

had these periods in this fouryear cycle we had these periods in the last foure cycle we certainly had those periods you can see all these long weeks and the monthly candles those are 30 plus% more and we had them again in this fouryear cycle they come they're part of the territory we have to learn to navigate those and to work with those on the way up towards a high so I hope you've enjoyed this video I'll do another one where I see the need for it probably in around eight weeks or so until then be

well I wish you all the best and take care