Two guys are sitting together in a bar in the remote Alaskan wilderness arguing about the existence of God. While they're old friends they have very different ideas on God: one is a priest and the other is an atheist. The atheist says "Look it's not like I haven't given God a chance, I've even tried the prayer thing.
It didn't work! " The priest asks with some incredulity: "Did you really pray? When did this happen?
" "Just last month" replies the atheist "I got caught away from the camp and a terrible blizzard I was totally lost and I couldn't see a thing it was 20 degrees below zero and so I prayed I fell to my knees in the snow and cried out: Oh God if there is a god I'm lost in this blizzard and I'm going to die if you don't help me! " the priest looks at the atheist puzzled and says: "Well, then you must believe in God now, after all here you are, alive! " The atheist rolls his eyes and replies: "No, no that's not how it happened!
A couple of Eskimos came wandering by and showed me the way back to the camp". So, where do such different perspectives come from? Confirmation bias is a tendency to look for, interpret and recall information in ways that affirm our preconception.
Whenever we encounter objective facts on an issue we look at them through the lens of our own beliefs. As a result we see and overrate where the to intercept. The bias is strongest for emotionally charged issues or when we search for desired outcomes.
Wrapped inside popular narratives, cultural beliefs and family values a confirmation bias often gets passed on for generations. The priest learned from his ancestors that God is behind everything. The atheist was raised within a family that believed only in scientific knowledge.
When we are confronted with unfamiliar or new situations a bias helps us to draw fast conclusions. If every encounter with a stranger would require us to think of all sorts of possible outcomes, we would not come to any conclusions. Economically speaking it would be too costly.
To survive in a dangerous world we learn to operate like storytelling, pattern-seeking animals, each one of us thinking that our story and our head is the right one. Today we can afford to slow down and think more deeply about certain issues. When we do this we can become aware of our own biases.
We begin to realize that things are often more complicated than we thought. Psychologist Peter Cathcart Wason who coined the term confirmation bias left us with this fun little hypothesis rule discovery task, let's see if you can do it? What's the rule behind the sequence of numbers: 2 4 6 ?
And what comes next? Write the correct number and the rule we are looking for in the comments below! Now, fast!
Psychologists and nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman said: "A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition. Because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. ".
Which means if there is time to reflect slowing down is likely to be a good idea!
