Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for joing back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse decom link is in the description below you will get access to the into the cryptoverse website as well as many more things so do check it out link is in the description or the pinned comment let's go ahead and jump in a couple of days

ago I put out a video where we talked you know roughly about the bull market sport ban and and we we Contin talking about this 2019 comparison now I think at this point my YouTube audience really understands why I make the comparisons to 2019 because I'm more explicit in the discussion about it why it is it's obviously due to monetary policy and my Twitter following you know my Twitter fans I think are are are not as aware because I don't go as much into detail over there but I do want to again remind people why

do I make this comparison to 2019 after all it is a having year for Bitcoin but again the reason for it right the reason for it is all based around monetary policy right it's the idea that late business cycle environment right High rates and also if you look at the uh the balance sheet of the FED QT environment Bitcoin will Trend up initially right initially into it but then at some point at some point it'll fade right it'll fade as you as you get near the end of quantitative tightening right and and you can see

that it happened last cycle and it's probably happening in a very similar manner this cycle okay so that is an important aspect I think to to explore that hey maybe this is not playing out like prior having years but in fact it's playing out like 2019 and in fact if you were to go look at year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin in 2024 and if you were to compare it to 2020 you can see that we are slightly underperforming 2020 right now 2016 also slightly underperforming right very very slightly but in both cases Bitcoin ended up going

up into Q4 right you can see that Bitcoin ended up going up into Q4 in 2019 Bitcoin went down in Q4 now the reason I bring this up is because in 2019 the downtrend for Bitcoin if you exclude right if you exclude the hard Landing that was that came with the pandemic it only lasted 6 months right so it lasted approximately 6 months it was 25 weeks and then the market started to pick back up again right so the market started to put in a it it broke the lower high structure right if you zoom

in right if you zoom in here you can see that I don't even know if it technically broke through it but if you look at the high 10,520 this high was 10,514 so technically it was still a lower high but it broke through that structure right like the the obvious downtrend channel right you see that it it it broke through that by about the sixth or seventh month right about six to seven months later I mean it bottomed out six months later and by that seventh month or so Bitcoin broke through the downtrend line and

this is something I pointed out long ago and of course the reason back then in March and April was two you know two specific reasons that I mentioned quite frequently one of which was gold gold breaking out which is exactly what happened in 2019 it marked the midcycle top right there same thing happened this cycle right I mean gold breaking out basically marked what you might call the midcycle top and what's interesting is is that the the percent move from the bottom in both cases was about the same about a 350% rally or so give

or take so there's a lot of similarities between the 2019 rally and also the one we saw in 2023 and early 202 far so why did the quantitative tightening High interest rate bull market for Bitcoin this cycle take place over a longer period of time the percent move was the same but why did it take place over a longer period of time and I think the argument is higher for longer right the FED raised rates higher and they held them there longer if you were to look at how long the FED held rates at the

terminal rate last cycle you can they only held rates there for about 6 months but this cycle they've already held rates there for about 13 months so more than double the amount of time and naturally the QT phase of the bull market lasted a little bit more than double the amount of time so in that sense it makes sense that it took longer to play out the other thing to remember is there's two types of bull markets that Bitcoin has some are QT bull markets where there's a a flight to safety right people will leave

their higher risk altcoins and flee to the relative safety of Bitcoin and that is best seen just by looking at at say eth Bitcoin as an example you don't even have to look at the whole the the altcoin market you could just simply look at eth Bitcoin and say look there are periods where Bitcoin goes in these QT bull markets quantitative tightening bull markets where eth Bitcoin goes down but then at some point when QE returns and the bull market returns and Bitcoin goes up in a QE bull market instead of a QT bull market

that's when eth Bitcoin goes up but you can clearly see that this cycle at least so far this move occurred while eth Bitcoin went down which means that this move here is still more similar to what we saw back over there right so then the question right the question that I think would you know everyone would probably be asking themselves is well when could when could the transition occur right when could that transition occur where you get a QE bull market where Bitcoin goes up but it doesn't necessarily lead right then other cryptocurrencies start to

lead just like last cycle when does that occur when does that occur well remember last cycle eth Bitcoin bottomed when the fed pivoted from QT to QE again if you overlay total assets of the fed that's actually when eth Bitcoin bottomed right here you see that QT this move right here from QT to QE the blue line that's when eth Bitcoin Bottom now again it's only a single data point right I'm not asking you to take it to the bank we know they're not going to cash it in my point is everyone who's faded that

view so far they would have been wrong to fade it because eth Bitcoin has continued to go down and so to has the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve so there's at least an argument right there's at least an argument that hey maybe there's some Merit to this so while a lot of people I think are going to be interested uh in a week or two I guess next week September 18th about what the fed's going to do is it going to be 25 basis points is it going to be 50 right now the market

thinks about 2/3 chance going to be 25 I'm actually more interested in what do they do what are they going to do with their balance sheet because poell has said many times that they might actually continue QT even after rate Cuts began which shouldn't be a surprise I mean the exact same thing happened last cycle right I mean if you look here QE began in September of 2019 but if you look at interest rates by the fed you can see that they started to cut rates in July so it it it took another meeting or

two for them to actually stop QT so something like that could happen again where they they talk about potentially stopping it but they don't necessarily stop it and and we have to figure out you know what exactly does that mean for the market so as I previously said right Bitcoin at the very least and I said this back in March would would would likely experience a 6 to 9 month downturn where you put in low low highs and lower lows right lower highs lower lows just like 2019 now the angle of descent has not been

as bad as 2019 at least not so far right pretty clear to see so then have has Bitcoin reached the point where it can break through the lower high structure even if it means you know even if it's still a lower high can it break through the uh sort of this trend line kind of like what it did back over here in 2019 you see that you see how it broke through in about the 7eventh month so that would essentially correspond to October so next month could Bitcoin actually break through that and the answer is

no one knows right that's the real answer again you're not going to find me trying to provide Insight on something I don't know I mean I don't know if if it's going to or not but if it it does if it does it still would need to take out the high from July there's another way to view the market so so so one of the ways is the time way to just say look it took 25 weeks and it's been you know we've already gone 25 weeks so why not open our mind to that potential

outcome I think it makes sense to be open-minded to that potential outcome especially considering that that Bitcoin dominance is still not at 60% so there is still this idea that altcoins will continue to bleed back to bitcoin and Bitcoin will take that liquidity again last cycle Bitcoin dominance did not top until QE began so that's one view I'll be open to that view what's another view to be open to well one of the things to consider and again going back to monetary policy does monetary policy affect the crypto markets absolutely right absolutely and if it

didn't then you would have expected that eth Bitcoin and all Bitcoin pairs have already been doing well because normally in the having year they do if you go look at at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin dominance right we're going to look at at Bitcoin dominance excluding stables and you look at at what happened in 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin dominance generally trended down right and and by about this point in the year it was bottoming out before starting to go back up but do you see this year how Bitcoin dominance hasn't really had a downturn like

it has in Prior having years but in Prior having years we had QE and low and or low interest rates so this is proof in my opinion right here that monetary policy plays a role because if it didn't play a role then e Bitcoin should have bottomed last year which it didn't so when you think about you know will Bitcoin take out this High first of all you have the timebase component so if you're only looking at the time base component you would probably think absolutely right you know markets generally Trend up they need a

reason to go down not a reason to go up that's one way to look at it and of course you know the the people that are are perable will only look at that view and I I find it fascinating because it's not that I disagree with the view right I don't I mean I think there's there's it's plausible but what I find fascinating I said this in the last video is that a lot of the people that ridiculed the 2019 comparison back over here in March are now using it to support their bias but they

weren't willing to admit 2019 had any Merit half a year ago in fact they mocked it relentlessly but now because they can point to the time component of the downtrend now they're willing to discuss it whereas previously they were unwilling to because to acknowledge it would have meant to tell their subscribers that hey they were wrong and Bitcoin was not going to go to $100,000 before the having or just after the having like most of them were preaching back then right so you'll find that and I I've said this before and and honestly to be

completely honest like I'm guilty of that stuff too occasionally right A lot of times you know we'll have either on our our our bull goggles or our bear goggles and at one point or at some point you're only going to look at things that confirm your bias right so if you are bearish on the market you're only going to to to find things that confirm that if you're bullish you're only going to find things that confirm that and you're going to ignore everything else so back in March when I pointed this out of course it

was easy for them to ridicule it but it's because it went against their bias now they can use it to confirm their bias so of course why not use it it's just one more thing they can say in the hopes that their outlandish price predictions from half a year half a year ago actually come true okay so that's one way to think about the market and again I'm not saying that they're wrong I you know I I was the first to say half a year ago that it would be at least a six-month downtrend and

now it's been a six-month downtrend but I'm not here to talk about you know is that the only way out I mean again you're going to find everyone talking about that and I've already acknowledged that is a plausible scenario but I would like to explore other scenarios as well because again the market will always keep us on our toes it's not like we can just take this fractal overlay it here and then it plays out exactly the same way and if you did do that you would still get a hard Landing by the end of

the year right I mean even if you're looking at the 2019 comparison and you're saying all right well here's where it goes up you still have to ignore this and I get it it's not like we're going to predict another pandemic that's going to close the you know the world basically and and lead to a crash but we still have you know we've had an inverted yield curve we saw the 2-year 10year un invert recently um like if you go look at at at treasury yield spreads you'll see that the the the three-month and the

10 year of course are nowhere near to being uninverted but the 2-year and the 10-year uh have uninverted right and historically when these uninverted six months or so right so I'm not predicting a pandemic right I'm just say look historically when this happens something happens in the market and and there's a reason for it and I don't know what it's going to be by the way you might be interested to know that technically speaking we actually had an inverted yield curve in 2019 and then we got a recession um you know about half a year

later now again I'm not arguing that that yield curve predicted the pandemic but it's one of those things were like every time it happens the you know the the people that said it it won't lead to a recession we'll say well you know they they'll they'll rationalize they'll say well there's no way it was predictable but again every single time there was a reason that we found but every single time the yield curve told you that it was going to happen it's not like the yield curve tells you the reason it just says Hey the

economy's been sick for a while and all it's going to take is one more thing and that'll that'll that'll tip the economy into a recession that doesn't mean it has to happen immediately it could happen 3 months from now it could happen six months from now maybe it doesn't happen for another year or something maybe more than a year I don't know right I really don't but my point is that I'm not saying it's going to play out like 2020 but my point is if you're following the 2019 comparison just be aware that this could

still theoretically be in the future now what I want to talk about though is is sort of looking at what if it doesn't break the lower highs because we'll know soon enough you know I mean if within a few weeks Bitcoin is still unable to break through here then it's going to raise some questions right it's going to raise the question of well why is it still playing out like that like why is it still playing out like that because based on 2019 we've reached the time period where it should break out so in a

few weeks I'll probably do another video where we talk about did it break out or not and before we get to that point if it breaks out then the argument is that all right well it's just following the the 2019 move right 6 months down maybe you you get some relief around rate cuts and then you figure out if you have a hard Landing or not or a soft Landing right you know it could do something like this where it breaks out and then just gets a soft Lane and goes slightly lower but it's not

nearly as bad as that that's one option and I I honestly think it makes sense to be open-minded to that view again this is something we said six months ago at least a six Monon downturn and it's been 6 months but if in if in a month or two right if if some if for some reason in October the market is not going up what's the reason why right so if you again if you go back to to the crypto tab here you go to year-to dat Roi for Bitcoin you look in Prior having years

and you see that Bitcoin went up in Q4 if Bitcoin is not going up in Q4 right if it's not then what was going on like what would be the reason for that okay so that's what I wanted to explore I'm going into this assuming there's a reasonable chance it just follows what it did in 2016 and 2020 maybe a diminished version but even then I mean 2020 actually outperform 2016 so it's hard to even say but if by the end of the year instead of Bitcoin up here it's still down here what could be

the reason for that now I talked about this idea briefly and I want to talk about it again in the last video right but I I want to explore it a little bit further last cycle if monetary policy is important right right if you if you believe that monetary policy does have an impact which I feel like I've made the case for then you could argue that it takes a certain amount of rate cuts to lead for you know to to occur in order for Bitcoin to break through that structure right and last cycle it

took 75 basis points of rate Cuts so remember last cycle right last cycle the FED funds rate was two and a half% right it was two and a half percent so you have two well let's just do 250 again I write the fives from the bottom I know people have a fi day with it I'd say it's more efficient right because think about it if you're writing basically any number zero through nine most not all of them but most of them end at the bottom right so if you're writing a one and then you want

to write a five and I'm on here even if I'm doing it with a pencil and you're already if you draw the one from the top down it's easy just to go the five starting from down here rather than go one and then come back up here and start your five if I'm going to do a two and then a five it ends down there and then I just go right into the five I know this is not how they teach you in grade school I'm aware um but three five right you know that where

you in the three if you start from the top it's closer to to the to where that five is Right four five you see what I'm saying that's the point again I'm not trying to convince you of that as much as I'm trying to convince you the monetary policy is important 250 basis points 250 basis points was the FED funds rate last cycle and it took 75 basis points for Bitcoin to break through the lower high structure right or at least to to take out that trend line it still technically was a lower high right

but it took 75 basis points to break through now this time how many basis points will it take to break through if monetary policy plays a role and if it plays a role in a commensurate way right and we're basically saying well if it plays the role in the same way that it did last cycle how many rate Cuts would it take would it take 75 basis points of rate Cuts right now the market is saying that we'll probably have 75 basis points of Ray cuts by November okay you can see the market is saying

25 basis points in September and then 50 in November so it's possible that Bitcoin if it doesn't break out in October it's possible that this Trends down into the election and then after the election Bitcoin picks back up did you know that in years where the where you have an open field presidential election where the incumbent is not running rning that risk assets the stock market we can't really say it with crypto it's not we have that much data but with the stock market the stock market generally does poorly in September and October during years

with an open field election okay now let's go take a look right don't take my word for it and I I I have to say that a lot because I mean sometimes I could just say something I could be wrong 2016 it was an open field election right we had two presidential candidates that had never been president before running for office and you can see that the S&P back then was read in September and October and then in November that is when the market picked up after the election why is that is it because either

candidate are going to be better for the stock market that's probably not the reason although I'm sure a lot of people want me to say that right the reason based on hundreds of years of History is because markets just don't like uncertainty right it's not necessarily an issue if you know who the likely winner is right if there's like an 80% chance that one candidate's going to win over the other the markets like the certainty that's provided by that what they don't like is the uncertainty if you look at at prediction markets for instance it

seems like the the projected winner is flip-flopping you know every couple of weeks depending on which prediction Market you're looking at but because of that the market does not not like uncertainty it wants to know what's going to happen and when it doesn't know that's what causes volatility and not you in 2016 the market was red in I mean August September and October and the reason it stays red through October in election years where it's an open field not always but usually is because of the uncertainty right because of the uncertainty if you look at

2008 Yes I mean it was a recession obviously but again September and October we're red right if you go back to um 2000 right September and October were red so it's one of those things where election years already provide a lot of uncertainty especially around September October but when you have an open field even more so and and this time has been no different right I mean the stock market's down 3 and a half% so far in September and if it plays out TP like it typically does then that weakness would extend into October as

well so there is a chance and I don't know what the probability is but there's a chance that that the market that's what's happening you know I know the unemployment rate's going up you don't have to tell me guys you don't have to tell me and I do believe that at the end of this business cycle there will likely be Fallout from that but it's impossible to know the timing of that there's always a possibility that what's getting PR priced in right now has absolutely nothing to do with with the the labor market it could

just be seasonal okay I would contend that Bitcoin and ethereum could go lower into November and it's still just be what you might consider a soft Landing right some evidence for that right some evidence for that is if you look at ethereum if you look at eth and you look at the logarithmic aggression bands for it it has always gone to the lower ression band before getting a a you know QE bull market where it blasts off to new all-time highs in the post having year and it's happened many many times here it is right

Q4 of 2019 Q4 of 2016 Q4 of 2015 Q4 of 2018 what if it's just Q4 of 2024 before move up next year so you don't have to convince me right I mean like I I would say eth could go down here and it just be a soft Landing just like we've had before but a lot of people might think it represents a hard Landing a hard Landing is when eth goes below the regression ban not when it just goes back down to it right so there is a chance that what's being priced in right

now is just this uncertainty associated with the election now again I'm not here to dismiss the labor market concern again I have been talking about this forever that that the labor market Market that the markets will eventually care about the unemployment rate it's hard to know exactly when my guess is that it really starts to matter when the labor market where the unemployment rate is going up because of layoffs and not just because of an expanding Workforce so you might be interested to know that one of the main reasons the labor market has been showing

weakness the unemployment rate's been going up is just because of of new people going into the labor market right so if you go look at um the macro side of things and we go to uh unemployment statistics unemployment level sorry I want to go look at unemployment level by reason for unemployment right yes job losers is going up but what's really going up re reentrance to the labor force but new entrance to the labor force do you see that do you see how quickly that's going up one of the reasons why the unemployment rate is

so is moving up the main reason is because of this is because new graduates new insance to the labor force are having a hard time finding a job and it makes look at at hires look at the hiring Market hires are down you know and they've been trending down basically since February 2022 just before the First Rate hike I believe the First Rate hike was right around March or so so it makes sense that new insance to the labor force are having a hard time finding a job so it's unclear if the markets care just

yet about it because job losers right job losers hasn't been going up as quickly as new entrance to the labor force right and you can look at permanent job losers and see yeah like it's not that it's been going it's not that it hasn't gone up it has but it's not going up as quickly as it did over here in 2000 and 2008 so my guess is that if the market is going to get a hard Landing eventually then it would have to be because this is going up more parabolically and not just because people

can't find jobs okay so yes I get that I absolutely get that and and one of the things I've talked about before with with the labor market is if you look at the S&P divided by the the unemployment rate squared it kind of looks like you know you know prior to these big fallouts where it it you know it goes up into a channel for a while and eventually it breaks down but it's not there yet and then the other the other thing that I I looked at briefly before was you know you if you

multiply by interest rates and then also the US inflation rate year-over-year you get a chart that looks like this and and it really it really does show you just how how crazy things have been this cycle because normally when you get these these bubbles you know they eventually return back down here and this one's still way up here suggesting that you know things are still very much heated right now more so than maybe Mar PS give it credit for okay so thinking back right to to bitcoin and and and and these lower highs the lower

high structure that it's been in the the most optimistic scenario is to just say the time component is right and that it's been 25 weeks you know and really even if it has been 25 weeks it still took another couple weeks after that it was really week 28 where the market really started to move up and week 28 will occur uh the week of September 23rd so the week after rate Cuts right the week after rate Cuts so that hasn't happened yet okay and and the question is is is it a Time based component that

matters is it just that Bitcoin needed six months to cool off or is it that we actually need looser monetary policy so if we only need 75 basis points then that should occur theoretically by November December potentially at the latest if if they're just going to do 25 each meeting there's always a chance they pause for meeting don't do anything like they cut in September nothing in November they get like a bad inflation read or something then cut again in December so there's always a chance it takes until next year to get 75 basis points

but right now the market is essentially saying that there is only a a um that by December the market is saying that there's basically a zero chance that the the rates will still be at 5% okay now obviously this Market can be wrong but the market is not pricing in right now anything but at least 75 basis points by the December meeting so with that in mind if the time component is not important but the rate cut component is important then it could continue this through the end of the year kind of like eth bled

into Q4 and it does that often actually e strength e strength normally comes in q1 and Q2 so when we think about that is it is it as simple as that is it as simple as to say you just need 75 basis points right maybe again that might be the more moderate view right so the optimistic view is to just say ah time component it's been 6 months if you take that approach you still have to deal with the fact that there could be a hard Landing by the end of the year and actually if

you look at the time based component 25 weeks it was actually another three months after that where the hard Landing occurred so if you have 25 weeks to get you there you know 12 weeks past that puts you November 25th right right after the election kind of interesting right it's kind of interesting so that's the uh that's the 2019 view extending into 2020 so does it just take 7 of Base points to rate Cuts does it and I I could be on board with that honestly I could be that with all the money printing that's

gone on who knows where rstar you know where rstar is but if you're not familiar there's this theoretical neutral rate called rstar that when interest rates are above it the economy is slowing down and when interest rates are below it the economy is speeding up and heating up and obviously the FED they've made reference to this many times they've put the economy into sufficiently restrictive territory meaning they think they think that the FED funds rate they think that the FED funds rate is greater right now than our star meaning interest rates are sufficiently restrictive because

they're above the theoretical level that would cause the economy to cool down so that's what they think and I think they're probably right I mean I do think that the economy you know that their rates are sufficiently restricted but again it's not about just the rate level it's also about how long do you hold rates there okay and the longer you hold them there the more of an effect it has and the more the the the bigger the toll that it takes I know a lot of people watching this video you're probably tired of all

this right you just want it to be this this stuff to be over and for locer policy to arrive and to go back to the to the good old days right A lot of people want that but 75 basis points is one potential option but there's this other thing that makes sense to consider and that's the fact that the terminal rate this cycle was not 250 basis points it was actually 500 and 50 so then it draws into question do you actually need 75 basis points of rate cuts for Bitcoin to break the lower high

structure or do you have to solve for x right so if back in grade school when the math teacher was saying well you know you need to solve this equation you're like well when am I ever going to use this hey this is a good chance to use it so go over to Wolf frame Alpha and you can say 250 basis points divided by 75 equal 550 ID X you solve for x and x is uh sorry let me see if I did this right 100 yeah so it's 165 so what that means 165 basis

points so if x is 165 basis points that's pretty close to 175 so how long would it take would could is there a possibility that Bitcoin remains in this structure until there's at least 165 basis points of rate Cuts is that a possibility again I don't want to marry that view because I don't necessarily believe that it has to play out like that but it's something to consider right like if by the end of the year if Bitcoin has not broken through this lower high structure and everyone's like well why the hell not you know

I thought this was 2019 it's possible that it's 2019 but there's more to the market than just time there's also the monetary policy component so if Bitcoin has been unable to break through by the end of the year then perhaps this is the reason it could be that the market that Bitcoin needs 165 basis points of rate Cuts so what is the market saying right now how long would it take to get 175 basis points of rate Cuts according to the market right now well again the FED funds rate right now is 550 so 200

basis points is 350 so 175 will be 375 so 3.75 the market right now thinks that the that that the FED will get the the the FED funds rate to 3.75% by March of 2025 okay so that's another way to view the market now I also have to say that this could be completely wrong right and the reason I say that is if the unemployment rate continues to move up as quickly as it is right now then the FED could end up cutting a lot more right they might not wait until March to cut you

know 175 to get to to get down to like say 3.75 or 4% it's probably the most likely scenario unless something bad happens but um you have to consider that if like the unemployment rate follows something like this then they might cut a lot sooner one interesting thing how many times have people said this cycle that this time is different right you probably heard it say a lot and that the labor market is is different this time post pandemic but what's interesting is is that's actually not true like if you take a bar pattern from

the financial crisis and the unemployment rate back then and you just overlay it over here it's actually a near perfect match right like the the the bottoming process of the unemployment rate took place over the same amount of time and it's going parabolic the exact same time that it did over there and if you look at it from the do era right and you take that unemployment rate and you overlay it to this cycle it it actually again looks identical right so it's one of these things where I think a lot of people want to

believe that this time is different but then you go back and look at even the 1990 recession and you're like is it or is it just doing what it's always done and we're just too impatient to watch the whole business cycle play out is that a possibility is that what's going on right now and and people keep making these desperate comparisons and hopes that the market repeats itself exactly when in reality people are falling victim to thinking this time is different and it's not actually different so that is something I I think is important right

so I want to be open-minded guys you know and I back in in March I I feel like basically no one was open to to this view this 2019 style view of of just slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows while Bitcoin goes up a lot of people didn't believe that so I want to be open-minded to to that process being almost complete but not quite yet but almost complete open-minded to that but also open-minded to the point where if Bitcoin cannot get above this structure and it goes on and puts in another lower low

then this is probably the reason right it's because we haven't had enough rate cuts and and there again there there there is EV to suggest the monetary policy is plays an important role right again if you go look at at the year-to date Roi and and we we showed it for um for Bitcoin already but you know if you look at it you could still make the case that it is still similar to the prior having years of 2016 and 2020 right you could make that case it's harder and harder to make the case that

it's following 2021 or 2017 right it's really falling off those paths um and even if you take the average of 2017 and 2021 it's really fallen off that path which once upon a time it was following pretty closely but what I think is still important is to look at that 2019 move and that 2019 move it was just lower highs and lower lows for a long time now this time the lower high started in March whereas over here it started in June so it's been about 6 months and that's why I say at least 6

months and if you go look at 2020 where that 6 Monon downturn ended the Bitcoin picked back up and then it crashed into a hard Landing so when I look at this when I look at this and I try to think what's going to happen right what's going to happen I say all right time based component could be correct but if it's not right if it's not and and Bitcoin ends up getting another lower low that's not a hard Landing like if it's just another lower low and it's not a hard Landing where you know

it's not like this type of a drop but it's just sort of like another slightly lower low again then I think your answer is right here and that would definitively say once and for all that hey look you guys keep you know the people that keep ignoring monetary policy you should not keep ignoring it okay so let's see what happens let's see what happens here with Bitcoin um and and how it reacts going into the First Rate cut what's interesting is that last cycle Bitcoin if you look at at at where the First Rate cut

occurred it occurred July 31st right so the FED on July 31st came out and said that was when when they were going to cut rates they cut rates 25 basis points so when they cut rates you can see that the week so two weeks before they cut rates Bitcoin went up but then the week before they cut rates Bitcoin went down and then right after that first going into that First Rate cut those those two weeks going into that rate cut you can see that Bitcoin went up and it formed a lower high right it

Formed um a lower high one way to be the market is to remove the bullmark spend and just put the 100 we ese on there and just say all right listen there is this support level there in 2019 just like there's been this support level here in 2024 and the move by Bitcoin to the 100 we moving average did not occur until about a month and a half after the First Rate cut right so we're about to get the First Rate cut so if Bitcoin does what it did over here and it just sort of

rallies into the first you know if it rallies into the rate cut like what it's doing and then bleeds down again and then drops to the 100 we moving average by November that is what AA or October right that's what a soft Landing would look like and then it's possible that Bitcoin just finds support there kind of like it did in 2016 when it broke through the 100 week Ese and then fell back down to it which by the way there was also talk back then about a soft Landing or hard landing and and when

Bitcoin fell there in 2016 it was also when the stock market was dropping as well right like if you over overlay the S&P 500 you can see the stock market was dropping and that's when Bitcoin went back to the 100 we ese right um so yeah I mean even here right Bitcoin fell to the 100 we SMA and and the stock market was really struggling through that time after Bitcoin went to the 100 week the stock market picked back up again for a while and then we had the hard Landing so there's a lot of

different ways to view this Market in a lot of different ways but I I would say that be open-minded to time based component but also you know don't ignore the fact that monetary policy does play an important role and the fact too that if you look at at this low over here right right around the time of the ETFs eth has already retraced to that level right uh the altcoin market is close to retracing to that level right it's not too far away it already kind of has Wicked down there Bitcoin has not yet gone

to that level and it doesn't mean that it has to like obviously you expect during QT High interest rate that that Bitcoin would would be the most resilient but on the other side of rate cuts and and and QE you know if it plays out like last time Bitcoin took this plunge right there to the 100 week right after QE began right like if you overlay total assets by the fed and you look at at when Bitcoin had the drop to the 100 we SMA it was actually right you I think I actually overlay Bitcoin

um if you overlay total asset soell by the fed you can see pretty clearly that right when the FED pivoted to QE that is when Bitcoin fell to the 100 we moving average and we haven't had that yet right we haven't seen that pivot from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing so that's also a relevant way to look at the market and again this isn't something that most people on Twitter are even going to talk about because you know it's better for them to just talk about hey it's been six months you know we laughed at

you know we laughed at Ben back in March when he said that was what's likely going to happen but now that it has happened let's use it to confirm our bias okay so be careful right be careful I could see that view but don't lose sight of other views as well because that's how you can get wrecked if you just sort of you marry one outcome and you're unwilling to see any other outcome even eth you know eth is one of these things where like ever since March I feel like so many people thought they

were right especially with the launch of the ETF and how many times did I say it's not going to affect anything the the eth ETF is not going to change anything in until loose for monetary policy returns and you can see that it didn't change anything yes I mean it it got another pump back up in June so you had a March pump and a June pump but so what you had the same thing in 2016 a March pump and a June pump who cares even in 2019 you you saw the market sort of go

up here right into March and also into June who cares it still bled in the back half of the year right and that's been what it's been doing ever since so that's where I stand right now on the market I mean by the way if you're curious where does Bitcoin need to go to break this trend line right where would it need to go it depends on how you draw but if you draw it like that where would it need to go well it would really need to get above 69k right I 70k right really

around 70k is where it needs to go the the last lower high was at $70,400 so it would need to get above that for it to to break this structure okay and and to follow that 2019 pattern but in the same way that that this this the uptrend took six months and the downtrend took six months this uptrend took over a year right so I mean it's possible that the downtrend takes longer than just six months if it's Equitable in terms of time right and that's the thing right that like that's sort of the thing

about the bear goggles versus the bull goggles right if you have your bull goggles on you're only going to see the uh the six-month down right the six month down before it started to go up and you're going to ignore the hard Landing right if you have your your your bear goggles on you're going to say oh well yeah if you're looking at the time component of six months yeah about about really it took what till week 28 to break the lower high structure till week 28 guess how long the uptrend was 28 weeks but

this uptrend over here was 68 weeks and 68 weeks put you all the way out in in June now that seems kind of crazy right June of 2025 that seems kind of crazy there is precedent for it right it's not like it's impossible for that to happen it's not necessarily my base case honestly um the only real precedent I can find for it is what happened with the stock market in 1946 to 1949 right and and basically what happened back then was you had World War II you had a lot of money printing because of

World War II and when you had that and you had high inflation you you had the you know you had the market sort of dealing with all that inflation and then at the very end right you know you can see that the markets topped out in the summer of the election year they topped out in the summer of the election year and then they bottomed a year later right so if the SNP has found a local top right it has found a local top which I don't really know I mean I I it there are

some similarities to to Prior tops but if it has found a local top and it and it just goes down for a while and it maybe it goes down until the summer 2025 that would be sort of following 1946 1949 again it's not necessarily my base case U but it is something to at least be aware of um so those are my views that I I wanted to express I wanted to outline those those sort of those two to three core views of how it makes sense in my opinion to be reading this Market to

try to put the pieces of the puzzle together and to say you know what if the lower high structure is isn't is not broken in October then it might just mean we need more rate Cuts if it is broken then perhaps Bitcoin is just following what it did in 2019 with still the chance of a hard Landing by the end of the year so we'll go ahead and wrap up there uh I do appreciate you guys tuning in make sure you subscribe give video a thumbs up we'll be here every step of the way we'll

see what happens and again check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom I'll see you guys next time bye