[Music] PU [Music] [Music] the this is just a natural match made in heaven 70% of China energy depends on import and CH Russian can really help in a big way on those import China's military has benefited tremendously from U Russian military input cin ping really views Vladimir Putin as a crucial partner in weakening the United States Russia is a very useful and important asset and partner in this long-term struggle it's increasingly the emperor and the SAR both China and Russian felt a lot of similar sentiment that been they have been forced by the US uh
to stick together China and Russia could combine their War plans and create an extremely effective Force for targeting United States the question is whether we have to plan in the event that we had a war with China that China and Russia would be working together the realities of conventional War I mean it's not something of the past it can still happen that is something we need to be preparing for now imagine that Russia does a large exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the time where China wants to make a move on Taiwan I think that
what puts a lot of us defense planners into a tough spot the whole mankind is at the Crossroad World Peace will be will be ENT you know going back to the Stone Age and and you know the very very dangerous la [Music] in recent years we have also done some uh what we call the join the patrol be it in the air and oil be at the sea so this kind of joint of Patrol uh are not exercises they're just kind of joint operations Chinese military has benefited tremendously from U Russian military import ever since
the 1990s so today Chinese military is uh growing with strength but uh without Russia's assistance yeah for decades and our own efforts probably the Chinese military would not be as strong as it is [Music] today [Music] in the 80s when pragmatic leadership arrived uh in Moscow and Beijing they decided that sorting out this territorial dispute not investing a lot of resources and money into this potential confrontation between two nuclear Powers but focusing elsewhere is worth it and that's where they found foundation for the relationship was built Alexander after collapse of the Soviet Union Russia emerged
as the major provider of military hardware to China China was under sanctions following the 10 and Men massacre in 89 and Russia was the only source of sophisticated military technology and China obviously used that to its advantage to buy a lot of stuff and by the way keep the Russian military industry afloat in 2006 the Border was finally demarcated and since that time maintaining peace along this more than 4,000 kilm border is Paramount for both beijin and Moscow Russia this is just a natural match made in heaven Russia has abandons of Natural Resources needs capital
in technology China is the exact opposite China is one of the secrets for longevity and survival of the system that Vladimir Putin used to build ch Alania cap La [Music] Miss format conferen for for [Music] for [Music] for [Music] [Music] for Al Putin uh is obsessed over control of Ukraine he believes that without control over Ukraine Russia is not a great power it's not an Empire uh and I think that this proposition has never been tested in the Russian domestic discourse like why dominating this 40 million nation is vital for Russia's prosperity and Security in
the 21st century but that's what Mr Putin believes [Applause] [Music] this the of History [Music] taian [Music] [Music] [Music] Tai e the Optics is very much the Centennial of creation of the People's Republic of China that will be in 2049 and by the time the party strives to turn China into number one Global power and ending 500 centuries of global dominance of the collective vest so Global power redistribution and of China as number one Global superpower Donal Trump joid we're getting billions of dollars a year from tariffs was us is putting a lot of pressures
on China on Taiwan and and many other issues so you can see that also us formed so many uh Alli surrounding China so so all those things make China insecure as well and I think Russian probably feel feel the same and I think in that sense they have some common uh feelings because they they all feel this uh Western pressure led by the us both China and Russian felt a lot of similar sment that been they have been forced by the US uh to stick together shared animosity towards the US is very much the glue
that brings the two men together it's increasingly the emperor and the SAR and since it's far less an organized institutionalized autocracy but a just more personalized regime definitely relationship between the two men is of Paramount importance cgp and Putin are age mates uh Putin is just six-month Elder they are in a way soulmates there are so many similar traits they have hardships in their youth both fathers fought in World War II against the Germans and the Japanese they both have daughters so there is a lot in common that brings them together and I've seen them
in person I think once and you see from the body language that the report is really [Applause] there for [Music] Fore based on what I know they danc around the topics and China's primary concern was nothing happens before the end of the Olympics and what they were anticipating was just a very limited scope military operation maybe uh focused on eastern Ukraine not an allout assault on Ukraine Russia doesn't really have alternative economic Partners amid Western sanctions Russia is the most sanctioned Nation on Earth so Russia is rapidly diversifying its economy towards Asia Pacific and that's
where China is definitely the major partner that provides market for the Russian resources technology that Russia relies on including military technology and dual use Goods [Music] I think that the structural factor is the most important and if we can imagine different leaders presiding over pretty similar power structures with non-democratic us skeptical regimes we might end up in the same result the Russian view is that the US wants to bring down Russia first and then add rest China that's something what the conspiratorial minded Russian leadership believes uh it might not be true but that's unfortunately what
drives a lot of their calculations also including war in Ukraine they are concerned in very physical sense about expansion of US security alliances and where they seek to work together to undermine this us dominance in the system we see China dominating at the Human Rights Council and inserting some of C jinping's phrases about community of shared future into documents Bon German Marshall Fund in Washington convincing countri that human rights should be underpinned by um economic uh definitions uh not necessarily the kind of freedoms that we think about in the [Music] West and Russia have uh
voted together now to not impose more sanctions uh on North Korea they don't uh want to continue to implement uh these sanctions so they see North Korea as continuing partner of uh Russia and China this would protect themselves because they could control the further control the amount of information coming into their socities um and uh try to gain advantages in the ways that cyber could even be used uh in Wartime as war in Ukraine it's a mixed bank for China on one hand it's really keeps the US distracted a lot of resources are being spent
on European security the flip side is that the global economy gets more destabilized then also China sees certain alienation of Europe from China and then when people say we should focus more on potential nightmar scenario in the Taiwan Strait because of what happened in Ukraine and we need to start to dur risk diversify way frore offshore uh so all of that discussion is Amplified by Russia's war in Ukraine China would not give Russia an article 5 type of guarantee because it would ultimately need to be involved in war in Ukraine which it doesn't want to
if China uh provided military assistance to Russia then we probably were going to have a uh really the dawn of the third world war with China Russia standing on one side and uh NATO that by us on the other side this is the worst the nightmare so so China's nonp participants yeah in this kind of war is is out of its own interest of course but it is also has demonstrated huge huge responsibilities for the world I think that the way that c came to Moscow showing his unequivocal support basically not saying that he approves
of the war against Ukraine but saying that the first state visit is to Russia he comes extra to see his friend in the Kum spend nearly 3 days with him that's a big show of support both countries are religious about strategic autonomy but they can integrate their militaries and military-industrial complexes without giv this formal commitments and that will make it far more dangerous there had been some rumors that we were under counting the number of nuclear launchers in China we had seen some construction of a limited number of silos at a um concepts of operation
site um at a place called ganai a silo is effectively a large reinforced hole in the ground that you can um launch a missile out of and so we decided we're going to go basically look for to see if they had built up significant numbers of those um patterns of silos and we finally came across the ones um near a place called um where they're building about 120 solid fuel missile silos you had these inflatable covers all of them were spaced 3 km apart and we saw um trenches for communications wiring to cut and cover
underground command buers well China's Arsenal uh has been for a very long time uh relatively small but it is growing and by 20 uh 30 I think the prediction is that they will have about 1,000 warheads and by the middle of the 2030s uh as many as500 so uh China is is clearly on a trajectory of uh doubling and then tripling its nuclear Arsenal or most of China's existing ICBM that are currently deployed um are on mobile trucks they drive trucks around they have tunnels and the idea is that um it makes it harder for
the US to Target them because they're always moving the problem with that is that it's a really really expensive and complicated Force to operate no it's just a much more responsive Force you have when you're it's already in The Silo if you are on alert most of the time you have a near instantaneous launch position we should not underestimate the degree to which Russia and China will work together for example um uh developing uh shared uh nuclear planning I think that's an area that would be extremely detrimental to Western interests their combined forces are going
to outnumber us current forces um if the current trajectory holds and so the fear I would say is that you know the fear has been that China and Russia could combine their War plans and create an extremely effective Force for targeting the United States the question is whether we have to plan in the event that we had a war with China that China and Russia would be working together um and I think that in our nuclear planning in the past that has not been the Assumption and of course if you combine those two arsenals then
we would be facing a massive threat in a situation which there is a crisis or limited war with China um making sure that there are still deterr Assets in place to make sure that Russia doesn't um do something in Europe or vice versa if there's a limited war with Russia making sure that China doesn't see the opportunity to DET take Taiwan that's the problem that we have right now when you have these new technologies like stealth cruise missiles you're getting into territory in which it's possible that you could destroy almost the entirety of the opponent's
missile forces very quickly and when you're in that situation the solution is effectively that you need to be the first mover right so that's what I worry about situation which both for example Russia and the United States have stealth cruise missiles or both Russia and and China and the United States have stealth cruise missiles the room for decision making is very very short the window for decision here is extremely small and that's what I worry about and that's the stabilizing right because you have a situation in which now any amount of hesitation on one side
would result in um possibly unaccept the United States first called for trilateral uh Arms Control discussions in the Trump administration of course the Chinese were not interested and I think it is unlikely that the Chinese are going to agree to that today today uh but going forward as China becomes more confident in its power and particularly in its nuclear capabilities I think we should hold open the possibility that we can have arms control talks with China it may be bilaterally it may be trilaterally but this is not something that we should rule out I don't
think that we're currently in that big of an arms race I think it's possibly we might enter one sometime soon but again that depends I think largely in part on a how bad the Russ situation gets and two how China views its forces and how they want to talk about it cuz if China doesn't want to talk about it then that limits a lot of what we can do I'm hopeful that China will'll talk about it um but we'll [Music] see [Music] EST [Music] [Music] e 60 years of Border architecture went up in Flames overnight
uh since then there has been significant uh troop build up by both sides um and this is a live problem when uh prime minister modi's government first came into power they really tried hard to reach out to China we often heard of the China model of development being touted in India um really a hope of uh forging good ties and relationships with with China um however that was spurned from the Chinese side when we almost simultaneously with these meetings started seeing more incursions on the India China [Music] border in Sri Lanka in Bangladesh all they
see is now patterns of um intimidation and an aggression followed by China with most of its close neighbors where Japan of course with the case of Taiwan in South China Sea and now on the Himalayan border what kind of international actor would China be as it rises um and the answer unfortunately is quite um is is is a difficult one it's a scary one you have seen now the conversation in India change completely within the political Spectrum there is no single political party that sees China as a friend China is seen as the most consequential
foreign policy issue an existential threat to India the Indi Russia relationship I like to say is one deeply rooted in Nostalgia um Russia previously the Soviet played a very important role in the history of Independent India India as it was building its institutions including the Indian military so for example my parents generation have a very uh romanticized view of the country it is definitely moving into the direction of Moscow being Junior partner to Beijing and that really is a difficult scenario for India given that China is the most important threat India faces right now La
India Shai I've even spoken to certain folks in New Delhi who mentioned that they were surprised by Russia's Behavior they've been surprised at how openly Russia has been batting for Chinese positions in these multilateral formats where in the past Russia would often hedge with India they would use India they brought India into SEO to balance China the reality of conventional War I mean it's not something of the past it can still happen it happened in Europe it can happen in in parts of the Indo Pacific and I think that is something Taiwan contingencies what happens
next on the amalian border that is something we need to be preparing for now rather than waiting for it to happen or hoping that it wouldn't that Russia could potentially play a spoiler role in the case of um when the India China conflict On the Border heats up even if it doesn't play spoiler it plays neutral it can still have you know tilt the scales in China's favor um and those are really dire consequences possibility of a Pakistan Russia China access for India is really the nightmare scenario given its geographical location given its history with
at least two of these actors given its dependence on Russian uh weapons and arms and Military technology as Russia China alignment grows closer and stronger there will certainly be tensions and fraying in India Russia ties the real push in Delhi right now is to make sure somehow slow down this growing alignment between Russia and China and to see where India can still play a role in keeping Moscow separate and keeping them engaged and slowing down this what through the rest of us seems inevitable process prime minister modi's visit to Washington DC resulted in some takeaways
for India which are often only given to us allies India is not one but it is still has still developed a very very close partnership with the United States with Japan with Australia in the quad I think the Indian vision is still very much multipolarity um the idea would be to have several poles in the world uh which is another reason why it continues to work with Russia and hopes that it isn't isolated continues to deal with China in certain formats as well um but I think the the ideal vision of multipolarity when confronted with
the realities of the world has meant that India has had to change track I think currently all of India's foreign policy choices its vision from the world is seen through the lens of the China problem um all the Partnerships that India has all relationships that India has is refracted through the China lens who can help balance China who can help compete with China who can help provide alternatives to China for China wants to be more as a guaran as a helper as a imediator uh as some kind of a you know uh convenor I mean
anything that China is needed China will be willing do and China wants to see the War ending and China's president is talking to president zalanski has talked to President Putin Putin actually uh is not the first Russian president who won go against NATO expansion actually this k from a Soviet leader like mik gach down to borison and then to Putin so Putin's difference from uh his predecessor is that he not only give warning but he also carried it into action China well China certainly doesn't favor any NATO expansion if Ukraine stays out of the NATO
probably things could be easier to reach a peace peaceful process China does at least three things it keeps the Russian economy going by purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and other Commodities by providing Russia uh access to R&B China keeps Russian industry going including military industry the red line for the Chinese communicated by the Americans is not violation for of sanctions in a very avert way and no supply of kinetic military goods that would dramatically help the Russian military effort I think that for the time being China Kips these two red lines and respects them but I think
that everything outside of the scope is red lights is really helpful for Russia to continue this lengthy and tragic war of attrition I believe the best outcome is Ukraine will lose some new territories in addition to Crimea uh so where are these new territories it is somewhere within the provinces that are already declared by Russia to be Russian territories uh then the worst outcome is uh uh President Putin decided to use a tactical nuclear weapon and the whole mankind is at the Cross Road War peace we we may end up you know going back to
the Stone Age and and you know the whever dangerous it feels pretty confident that time is on his side that things don't go well in the front lines but they don't go utterly miserably for him and then at some point the Western will to support Ukraine might be broken we might have Donald Trump back we might have a different president in France we might have a different Chancellor in Germany and that's where ukrainians start to fight internally and that's ultimately he doesn't get control over Ukraine but he keeps what's left of Ukraine broken dysfunctional miserable
depopulated and that's a good enough outcome that's his b right now there is a war yeah uh uh in Europe which will last for many years nobody knows how many years but this is the only conclusion we know that it was simply lost so for for for many years uh NATO will simply be buen down in Europe imagine that uh Russia does a large exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the time where China wants to make a move on Taiwan I think that what puts a lot of us defense planners into a tough spot because
you obviously need to allocate resources to address the challenge in the West in in in Europe for concerned about potential instability in in Russia is going to be there going forward and Beijing will be watching this closely cing really views Vladimir Putin as a as a crucial partner in weakening the United States it is my view that it is no longer possible to drive a wedge between Russia and China if it was ever possible the view in Beijing is that China is in the spirit of prolonged confrontation with the United States and nothing short of
full surrender will deliver fundamental Improvement in us China ties so China thinks about its relationship with Russia in a way in counterfactuals so what if we throw Vladimir Putin under the bus criticize his unlawful invasion of Ukraine uh introduce sanction of our own demand that he Vates all of the Ukrainian territory including in Crimea then probably Putin's regime is doomed at some point and it collapses and then there is a new government that wants to be friends with the West so the West will just pocket this concession and say thank you China good Boe now
what about Shan what about Taiwan what about yourp theft what about your technological programs that really challenge the US dominance in those fields what about your military buildup so China will lose a very valuable partner and instead get even more problems with the United States for
