Betfair Trading Strategy - Laying the Favourite Horse Strategy

hello everyone uh welcome back to making richie rich so today's video is going to be about every strategy i've been trying and i wanted to i've been testing for a while and i want to come on and just try and do some some live results see how it goes so what i'll be doing is i'll be placing a pound today i have to use market so it's not really bad fair trading but it can apply um so what we're going to do we're going to see if the strategy works over the course of the day and what i'll do is i'll jump in and out of each trade when i get on show you what i'm doing and then at the end of the day show what the results are okay so let's see if we can make richie rich okay welcome back thanks for that so the strategy i'm going to be trying today is one i've been looking at called lay the fourth favorite and horse racing so as you can see i've literally just placed a trade there which is just one and i led the four favorite at one minute before the off uh for one pound which is what i'm going to be doing today um and then what happens is my plan is to use recovery for any time there's a loss so if that comes up i'll show you exactly what i'm doing so we're going to move over on to the next phrase here which is the 13 15 and foul now i've been testing this mainly in the uk and but today i'm just going to get on whatever the races that are that sort of meet my criteria the criteria that i use is between the fourth favorite uh with the maxwell's of 14. okay you can scale that down if you're not comfortable going up to 14 or not choice is yours it's just what i've done um i have back tested this i'm using software free bet fair trading community and i had had if you were just simply laying the four favorite you would not win money you would lose overall but if you use uh recovery then it can be profitable the most that i noticed was even in all my back testing on my own bot was that the fourth favorite only ever lost twice in a row so if you have enough bankroll to cover that and then you're fine okay so for example um if it comes up we'll go industrious we've got one more minute to go before the off and for bankroll you need to work out your max odds so if you're about max odds of say 14 um well i'll deal with this race to go i'm gonna go place my i trade okay so i'll get one up for example um if you're doing max odds of 14 and you're using one pound you would have a liability of 13 pound okay um i'm gonna see if i can move this screen over yeah there you go so you can see okay um you have a max liability of nope still not sure there we go okay a max liability of 13 pounds if you lost you at least 13 pounds you want to recover that in the next one so 13 and there odds are 14 you would need um i'll let you need a bankroll of 169 pound there that's your liability to try and recover that risky yes i know but you can have that so for example instead of going 13 you could go uh six pound fifty and you don't need an 84 pound liability better with a bigger bankroll but you can scale this so you can start off with 10p um and build it up whatever maybe that's not profitable for some people but um hopefully at the end of the day you can see the kind of results i was getting okay there's a few other strategies i'm going to try regarding this and people can decide what's for them okay so we'll come back in a few minutes when we see this race also just to note um while i was doing the back test and it showed that there was less losses less um yeah overall loss on the the strategy on the software sorry there's less losses when he entered one minute before the race starts um and she's when you get closer to the rest starts you can see the odds bunch around a lot more so it maybe gives an idea of maybe who's you know gonna be in better position to win the race for me i think a lot of this is just a gamble you know i i don't know how accurate these odds are at times because i've seen the favorite at like 1. 5 lose and i've seen the favor you know at six odds of sex and when so i i don't know much about horse racing you know i don't know how it all works but for me it's just i just go with what works and if it's working just let it work i try not to read into the race um because sometimes i've seen like this is a huge race sometimes i've seen the four favorite went on a huge race i've seen the first four favorite lose in a race of six where they're really close odds so i tried to find even in my when i was looking at some kind of common denominator and i'm sure there's people out there better than this at me so maybe they can advise but i couldn't see it kind of pattern anywhere that was like stand the night to say well maybe i should leave this race out or should leave that racing you know it's just gonna be down to luck even not that a horse can be coming in their race in great form still lose sick football you could have won six nil in your previous match you should be going out to duff this team at the bottom of the league and you don't you end up drawing or getting beat it's it's just who turns up on the day kind of thing so i stick to seek the rule did you set strategy enter an extra point some people you may want to try and treat it out early in this which is fine if you can do um and save money but i've seen literally seen my four favorite common m at the start and looks like it's gonna win and then right at the post somebody overtaken it and you'd be kicking yourself because you traded a little loss so look find what works for you this is just what i'm doing and i am no no expert there's plenty of people out there who've been trading longer for me i'm just trying to find an edge in the market something that you know will work and hopefully share it with people okay so um we'll come back and we'll see how this retreat down in a few moments okay so that last race is still ongoing and i'm going to enter the trade here and let me see the fourth favorite is um with the bear and i'll put one pound on there okay um back there the foul race is currently still still going i think it's safe africa if i'm right um so sometimes there's a bit of delay in those generally i've just been doing this in the uk as well i have my bot testing non-uk and what i'll do is actually get my bot over in a few moments just to show um how it's been doing um and we'll see where we're at so pedro the bear come on pedro we want you to lose okay so we go um the next week one there uh also pedro the bear did not win that and highborne lady did not win the race so there you go um nice two-pound profit off the great start that's what you want um right so what i'm going to do is going to bring over my bot here um this is from the test that i've been doing and some of the strategies so horses lay the four favorite non-uk in ireland um 210 races 89 strike rate so out of 210 races 186 times um the trade one so the horse lost 186 times out of 210 that's outside the uk okay um i had to restart this one for the uk so it's been over the last two days as you can see five times in the last sort of two days and this is one um get that up there so they're all one point stakes and you can see just by scrolling down there that's it working okay and as you can see so i have my bot set up for recovery so i lost 9.

50 and recovered ideally i would want that recovered straight away um because you're on the risk of getting the loss but quite often with a four favorite you can go on a long win streak um but you can also have two in a row and then you know i've seen it where it's been two in a row when two and then lose again um and then go on along i've also been doing it on later dogs um as you can see oh a big loss there 55 pound hopefully that recovers pretty soon um but just these are things i'm testing but so far later fourth has been the most dependent to me there's less losses and a higher chance of recovery i know a lot of people say not to use recovery but i think when you've something like this can strike rate um i think it's possible so this is the whole point this video i'm going to do it today manually on smarkitz and we'll see it in action and see if it can work for people okay so you can see in this race we've got what's that seven seven race seven horses the odds do not meet their criteria it's too high so first second third there and you wouldn't touch these with a barge pool so that's uh we'd miss that match or that match that race uh so that's the 1330 at yarmouth and we will not be getting on that so i'll skip over the 1340 and you can see already there's potential there for the fourth favorite it's around odds of 9. 4 again and at the moment it's 13. 26 so it's a 1340 so i'll be getting on that at 13 49 okay one minute before the off so we'll come back whenever that happens and we'll get on it and see how we do um i'm gonna refresh there so still got one that needs to settle and my dog's going crazy okay so it's back in just about to place this next trade on dark moisture dark mosal moosie why is elle who knows um so get on that at one pound 8.

6 somewhere matched up and i'll just bring it over here just to show sort of um rubber after taste so already today is 4. 5 and the tree is going to settle bets there yeah four point five four mod pets for one so fingers crossed we have a nice long winning streak today i actually want a few losing streaks just so i can show how it works and i always like to try to think of the worst case scenario which we kind of have to in this kind of game and protect your bankroll okay so fingers crossed so on to the next one we'll see how we do okay so i forgot to hit record there so as you can see um on the 1345 here at foul and i jumped on miss elegance and i got myself against at 9. 2 and the odds are going up there nine point eight or nine point four nine point six so not a bad price so fingers crossed and we'll come back when we get a we win there okay um how did we do at the haddock once it went off yet yes i think we won there oh no i got a loss my first loss so there you go um what i'll do is on the next trade then show you how i would use recovery here to get that back okay so i actually had another loss in between so if we look here i'm actually minus 12.

11 for today so two losses um pretty much back to back now there it was um so i've already got an understand on berkshire breeze um f12 with a liability of 78 pounds so fingers crossed or i will cry because it will be the worst start to test uh i've ever done i thought the tennis one was bad the other day but um what am i do is saving get it up and watch this race to live stream in the blue white colors bring that forward and show well fox so loading underway for the two o'clock we'll bring this over and drop her in there hopefully everybody can see that and i'll come back when the race is about to kick off okay so we're off and as you can see the green numbers are bunching around here we want berkshire breezes number to keep rising um if we had the trade button i could see i could trade right now and try and get more money just cut my losses at five or six pounds [Music] very first of all majesty's runners that's running sir towards the inside and towards the outside and the uh where can't we come on keeper like come on uh and make sure your day a bit more interesting when you can sit and watch the racing as well and rip through your horse not the wind but berkshire breeze just clear away please just keep falling away to the back there do me a favor and let me prove that recovery can work if not i'll cry i'll push the video because you know i like to keep it real and i'll just take my loss on the chin and look at this a bit further in third place is naval college come on the outside is oh so audacious the grey on the inside and the red covers that sparked your breeze the yellow colors of suggest the blue and white covers of moon is strength and berkshire breezes prices starting to come in no go away oh yes yes there we go nice and high keep them up high and then comes general idea that very well strung out as they come down now with three and a half now i also find when you're watching the race and the racing here is far behind what the odds are actually showing of the chasing group then comes naval college in third gets a wake-up call towards the outside is the great berkshire breeze and the pressure is suit guards geez come on oh happy days come on come on baltic bird leaked by two two so if i click on cheeto we can see what kind of price you would be getting there eleven pound freddie one so you can just cash it not risk it but at the [Music] moment there we go nice win got a full recovery back and then we can continue on so hopefully it'll get too many more scares like that today um and it's a nice smooth challenge for the rest of the day so i'll be back a second and there we have it we have another loss so today has started off pretty poor and free losses at the freight start of the day is typical from whenever you go live i think i should just uh go i'll say live i should start recording what i'm doing because any time i seen them start recording something i seem to get losses so maybe when i start recording should start backing them instead um so that was 22 pound loss there on scholarship and trying to recover one pound that's all i needed to recover and i have to recover 22. so we'll come back and we'll see how we do you on the next one okay so this is a perfect example i've been testing this for so long in those days and when it starts getting real it's the perfect example of how your heart's different because technically i should be putting 20 pound on here to recover on bailey's darby day what's the wi-fi but i'm ready to send the four-pound liability and the fear of putting 20 pound on that i'm losing 140 pounds it's just it's scary um i'll regret that decision or or not even though i had the bankroll to do it still it was a fear that i had and didn't want to do it so hopefully i'll recover tampon here and recover tempo in the next one fingers crossed so we're watching we're watching here and see if it wins second position babies derby day these two followed them by what's the wi-fi code cheap sheepskin cheap pieces in third venture currency at the inside of the board richard king's good after getting away from the gates quite quickly against the point i think this race has what five horses in it the last one had something like 15 or 20 and the four favorite one at but you could easily not win this so i don't know if there's any people out there who knows stuff more than what i'm talking about in this video please leave a comment below let me know um i can maybe find her tune this strategy there we go that's the numbers i want to see there 15. it's going to trade take the 4.

91 covered blue cat still travels nicely followed then on the outside by what's the wi-fi code and dragons will rise is still at the rear of the fury because they never come on the way down inside the final half mile let's shake a leg who's still out in front by about three um i remember doing lay the third favorite and i got terrible results in it and had five losses in a row i did a previous video where i talked about that um and then changed over on to later fourth so but the way things are going looks like that's gonna screw me over okay it isn't going very well has it gone by what's the ride dragons will rise skipping up the inside rail down towards the front come [Music] see when the bot does it i don't have to care i just let the ball work away and i just see the results let's hear doing it manually is kind of heartbreaking all right well we'll check back in a few minutes to see how we get now all right everybody and so we're back again just to show where i'm at with my lost recovery here um five per nier and we're currently on bowling joan for five pound just a few of those races there were quite high odds and i wasn't comfortable putting big money on like 14 and so i'm gonna risk 32 pound here so five pound on bowling joan and i will recover me and we'll see how we get on so i'll see you in a bit and have an absolute mayor today because bowling joan just won and lost me 32. 99 just as i was about to finish recovery i think i'm going to have to readdress this so it's just going to be one of those days where new i was going live and yeah not good uh not good at all so we'll see how i'll keep going um and try it out and see how we go so on to the next one okay so um as you see we laid the fourth there i managed a couple losses and recoveries but that's me back on par and 24 wins with 24 pound which is how my recovery should be working um out of 30 trades today so we'll keep going the next race here is the 1740 um it's sundown so i've got another eight minutes before they off and it looks like i will be going it's a pretty tight race which i think's that's what you sort of want um because i mean it's gonna be competitive but we'll see so at the moment i'm looking at a connex how do i know if that's the right word name the way you say that so hopefully we'll get on that next and we'll get a couple two more trades go and see how we end up at the end of today awkward and slow start okay okay so that's us off uh equinoxes it connects the first one to ship come field there from on valley lad who's handy so we'll check back in a few seconds and see how this is getting on so we came back in towards the end of this race let's see how we're getting on is yes come on get those odds up yes that's what we want to see come on yes lovely lovely and we'll take beaten blue that the back it's dennis who's running on well but the whip masters happy days great win another one so we'll get on a few more trades um i'm not gonna bore you with too many i just want to show you exactly me doing it live and what happens um i'll go over here and just do a quick check show the profit these are all one pound stakes so and i'm sitting doing it manually to show you i also have a bot running as well that's doing them which probably be more advisable you want to do this all day um unless you've got nothing to do like me so okay we'll be back in a few seconds so this is the kind of races you want to see um when the one you get on is just so far behind it's ridiculous uh there we go lighthouse lady 130. and has no hope of one in this one so [Music] and the big chaps away so again doing well we've got 14 more races left today 13 more races so i plan to get on them all uh as long as the criteria meets and see how we get down so currently there we go 26 races um so going well so far after a very dodgy start and let's keep cracking all i'll see in a couple more races so i've jumped in on this race here and it was very tight from the start look at those odds were all even tight um dramatic star is drop the way down which is good for me but i just want to show one of these races so i'll come back and let you know how this gets on this nice tight race um how long is this race um two miles free for long so good long race so [Music] fingers crossed normatic star falls away to the back so we're just going to come back in towards the end of this race and thankfully my horse fell away to the back um it was a nice tight race which is i don't know if it's good or bad sometimes you just can't tell horses so but again another great win to add to today i think there's probably four or five more races so i'll get on a few of those and then show my final results see you soon okay welcome back um i say welcome back it's only been a few seconds supposed for you and that's me at the end of today's trading um there's a couple more races left today but the odds are all outside um the criteria that i'm looking for so i only go as high as odds are 14.