take a listen to what I said last night it is possible that markets do take the attack on Iran as a positive believe that or not we've seen that many times before in fact that's exactly what happened Israel did a limited attack against Iran for their attack on Israel which was hundreds of ballistic missiles but no oil production facilities or nuclear facilities were targeted so markets took that as good news and stocks went higher today and oil markets were trading sharply lower which would make sense given there was no attack on Iran's oil facilities oil is down 55% today but this is bad news in bond markets because Bond markets are continuing to be unhinged 10e treasury yields today are up 5 a half basis points to 4. 2 2 88% so almost 4. 3% on 10year treasuries stocks took this is real news as good bonds didn't care at all and you would expect that if oil was down 55% in a single day that would lower inflation expectations which would be good for 10-year treasuries that did not happen so that is unequivocally bad news and a bad sign now here in this video I will break down all of the news and information that you need to know for the trading day today in fact statistically October 28th is the best day for the stock market in any year so it would make sense why markets are higher today in fact since 1950 through 2023 on average the S&P goes up 0.
51% today alone and the S&P up 0 . 43% is pretty much right on par with historical averages October 29th has a historical Return of 0. 32% the following day of 0.
23% and then the day after that of 0. 08% so this move today is really just on average what you'd expect to see but we did have some bad news for the AI sector Nvidia is down 0. 74% today this comes after reuter reported that taiwan's semiconductor better known as tsmc had suspended shipments to china-based chip designer sofago after a chip it made was found on a howi AI processor Howie is restricted from buying such chip technology to protect us National Security tsmc could face penalties from the US Department of Commerce if it willing F violated us export controls in China tsmc alerted Taiwan and US authorities and began a detailed investigation after news broke that its chip had been found its way into a hoe product Reuters reported despite this the Russell 2000 is the outperforming index up 1.
6% today the NASDAQ up a half of 1% the S&P up 0. 37% and the Dow is up 0. 7% which the move in equities is what you would expect to see if oil fell 5 1.
2% in a single day that means inflation is less likely to be a problem that is less of a burden to companies especially companies that are vulnerable to fluctuations in energy which are Dao and Russell 2000 components but the move in bonds again is not what you would expect to see you would expect to see an opposite of this you would expect to see 10-year treasury yields down anywhere from 5 to 10 basis points today in fact they're up 5 and a half basis points which leads me to believe this move in equities following this drop in oil is probably shortterm lived in nature again I would feel a lot more confident to say stocks are going higher if 10e treasury yields went lower on this news they're not and in fact I think this is actually the election that has starting to get priced into markets even more today and I think that's why 10-year treasury yields are breaking out to now a multi-month high the last time you were this high on 10-year treasury yields was July 24th 2024 and that makes me ask the question if 10e treasury yields are pricing in more of an election risk does that get reflected in equities in the coming days and I think it will judging that the bond markets are pricing in the election risk but it's still an uncertainty is it possible that equities just don't price in any election risk and the bond market prices in all of the election risk that is a possibility although I think it's unlikely it's a possibility as I talked about in the last video this week is really filled with earnings economic data and potential election risk and I think that's why for the next couple of weeks we are really in an elevated risk environment where I think the odds of a correction considering we have not seen one in a while are higher than what they normally are there's always risk of a correction at any given period if you're investing in markets but there's certain periods that have higher risks and I think we are in a higher risk environment allbe it most people expect we're not going to know who the next president is or who controls the Senate right after you know November 5th some people think most people think it's going to take a couple of days at least to figure that that out and that's where a lot of the problem could come in for equities as long as there's liquidity in markets you don't really want to be concerned but if there is a delayed result of the election liquidity could dry up and that would push stocks lower so I don't think it's just this week that you know could be problematic it's after the election that could be problematic as well if it's not a just blowout in one direction or the other politically speaking and that's actually what Sven hendris someone we site on X all of the time just said on CNBC as long as liquidity remains you want to stay bullish via government deficits being 6 to 7% of GDP that typically happens during recessionary periods that is stimulative so on and so forth if we don't have election results right away liquidity could dry up and that would be a problem for markets also today Apple intelligence just launched this is for the latest iPhone 15 and the upcoming iPhone 16 but you're really not getting many features many of the features that some people are looking forward to like the ability to edit an an image out of a picture for an example comes out in December and in Spring of 2025 I have my concerns the Apple intelligence which is the second product ever in AI that is expected to merge AI into the mainstream population is a bit overhyped and is going to underd deliv in the near term but I have no idea when we're going going to know that with a certainty in fact it wouldn't surprise me if Apple just tries to pump their stock on earnings and say apple intelligence is doing great like honestly that would not surprise me at this point Apple has quite a way of tricking investors making things seem like they're a lot better than they actually are in fact apple is a no- growth company Apple has no growth it doesn't grow and apple is trading at alltime highs Tim Cook sure has a way with words and part of the reason why apple is trading higher today by 1. 34% at the time of recording this video is because Dan IES one of the best highest ranked Tech analyst said that apple is going to beat expectations for this quarter earnings now in all fairness Dan IES says that every quarter about Apple and he's very on big Tech into year ends so that's really not anything new over the next coming days we will get more analyst commentary about upcoming Big Tech earnings and that will help swing markets higher or lower heading into them which as I previously reported we have big Tech earnings coming tomorrow in after hours with alphabet you do have Microsoft and meta Wednesday and after hours and then Thursday and after hours you have Amazon and Apple so five companies over a trillion dollars a piece in market cap will be reporting this week I personally think expectations are high for big Tech and I mean I'm going to be surprised if we walk away from those earnings just blown away I I think you need blow your mind kind of earnings from Big Tech to get another 5 10% higher from here I think just okay earnings not below your mind kind of earnings could easily give you 5 to 10% downside on any of these big Tech names and that's why I'm a little bit more concerned about big Tech at least for earnings than I am for the rest of the markets other notable earnings that come out this week today and after hours you have Ford Cadence which is important for the AI trade waste management and F5 big uh software name there that's done very well in you know recent months over the past 12 months tomorrow morning Sofi PayPal BP McDonald's 5 are Royal Caribbean JetBlue and Crocs also Tuesday and after hours you have AMD Snapchat Chipotle Visa First Solar Reddit and chub Wednesday premarket Eli Lily caterpillar human Biogen ADP and jle solar Wednesday and after hours besides Microsoft and meta you also have coinbase Robin Hood sonova Etsy Riot Roku carvana and Starbucks even though they already pre-report it Thursday premarket Uber pelaton Merc kico Phillip Serius XM that's one Warren Buffett's been buying a lot recently Altria MasterCard Estee Lauder kelan NOA and Norwegian Cruise Line Thursday and after hours Amazon Apple again Intel atlassian and a couple of others and then Friday pre-market you have fubo Chevron and Exxon Mobile as well as Wayfair let me know your thoughts Down Below in the comment section if you're bullish or bearish on this earning season and what companies you are bullish on what companies you are bearish on and wow Ryan Dietrich on X writes the last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in November was 2008 it has been higher 11 of the past 12 years and this has been the best month since 1950 the past decade and in an election year the second best month of the past 20 years only July is better now what tends to happen what really Skuse these numbers is after elections you tend to get a rally in markets at least historically and just normally you're in the holidays season you're in the holiday period people tend to be more bullish during this time of the year you tend to get that early Santa Claus rally as well in November so that's why November tends to be a standout month and Bank of America's Sav is back with a similar prediction that Goldman Sachs just had she says quote today's valuations suggest 1 to 2% price returns per per year for the next decade but five to 4 to 5% returns for equal weighted S&P 500 so honestly at this point you should be begging for a bit of a flush out in markets to reset valuations a little bit the NASDAQ 100 index long-term moving average breath continues to diverge from price when you get these bearish diverences they do tend to lead to pretty major Corrections you can also see this Divergence in the snp's RSI there's definitely a bearish Divergence in the RSI where you're hitting higher lows right where you're not going as high as you previously did now that has been happening for a period in time uh over the course of you know really at least since 2024 at least since July you've been in this bearish Divergence but if you look at the weekly there's definitely a bearish Divergence here in the SNP dating back I mean really to again early 2024 where the RSI hit a high of about 80 it fell it went back up it did not quite hit that 80 it only hit about 7879 or so and ever since then ever since July 2024 there's really this lack of of momentum in the RSI time whereas markets continue to go higher so markets are going higher the RSI is not that it looks like a short-term technical problem for markets and it looks like that will spell more downside eventually now when does that downside come when does that correction come I think that is still a very open-ended question in my personal opinion I believe you get a correction here relatively soon I made I made my prediction on October 21st that you would see a 10% correction within the next 6 weeks so we'll see if that does happen if that does happen it means November is going to be a statistically very bad month where it normally is a good month for stock so it's a really it's really a call that's going against the grain of what a lot of people are expecting and and that's kind of what tends to happen in markets you tend to get the markets that try to screw the most amount of people as possible and if everyone believes markets are going to do great into year end that probably means the opposite is going to happen now I am expecting another correction in Spring of 2025 I believe that correction most likely comes with the second round of growth concerns that that's likely going to mean payroll reports that start to miss expectations that likely means retail sales consumer spending that starts to miss expectations wouldn't surprise me if the holiday a shopping season misses expectations and that can also cause some fears in the first couple of months of 2025 so I actually think we're in for a pretty volatile next couple of months but longer term I have gotten more bullish on the prospects of a soft Landing it has become obvious to me inflows are going to keep on flowing people are going to continue to plow their money into markets I think to a certain degree degree the Dynamics of investing have have kind of changed hence why I don't think valuations really matter I don't believe the Goldman Sachs or Bank of America argument that returns are going to be lower in the future based on where valuations are today because I don't think we can look at markets historically and say yeah we're overvalued or we're undervalued just look at the rise of retail investors alone don't even consider 6 to 7% you know uh deficits the government is running which is very stimulative in in nature those are like recession Ary deficits that are happening today in a strong economy no reason G no wonder GDP is over 3% we're running recessionary like deficits during a time where the economy is on paper not in a recession I I don't think you can use the same standard quo as valuating markets you know over the past 50 years as you can today again the rise of retail investors that tend to be more risk on in nature like we haven't win anywhere I mean I've been in the market since 2015 2016 but other investors right that join the markets 2020 until now they're here largely speaking they have not went anywhere and they continue to buy they will continue to buy now Norway's $1. 8 trillion wealth fund has issued a stock market warning per CNBC it said heightened uncertainty and concerns over the econom IC Outlook mean that the stock market risks are tilted to the downside they say quote time to be a little bit cautious they said now let's be clear this was norwegian's wealth fund a 1.
8 trillion dollar wealth fund what this fund does is it invests in publicly traded companies it it can invest in private companies as well but a large chunk of this is in public markets and it's not in Norway stock market let's be clear it's in the United States stock market this is not a warning for Norway's stock market this is a warning for America's stock market because that's where they are investing this $ 1. 8 trillion largely speaking so it's not just me that says it's time to be a little bit more cautious it's also Norway's $1. 8 trillion Sovereign wealth fund now here on the day today Dallas fed Manufacturing Index did Miss expectations you were expecting NE -1 we came in at -3.
0 so again weakening economic data did not have the effect of pushing down 10year treasury yields 10year treasury yields rallied in in spite of that okay now if we take a look at tomorrow's economic data we will get wholesale inventories month-over-month Advanced Data we're expecting 0. 2% last month was 0. 1% really not a big deal retail inventories excluding Autos expecting that to be positive 0.
3% and the goods trade balance um Advanced Data for September expecting negative 96. 1 billion worse than last month by about 2 billion the big data we get tomorrow is jolts job openings we are expecting 7. 99 million job openings last month was 8.
04 Million job openings if if we see this number fall a lot that's going to lead to concerns about the lab Market I don't think that's going to happen I'm really not concerned about the economic data for this week considering it's right before the election take that for how you will but I'm not too concerned about it could it come in low sure it's definitely possible CB consumer confidence is expected at 99. 3 last month was 98. 7 so expecting confidence levels to grow with in uh CEOs jolts job openings or jolts job quits are expected at 3 million uh down from last month's 3.
84 million Dallas fed Services expected at -2. 1 last month was negative or 2. 5 last month was negative 2.
6 so we are expecting things to get a little bit better with the Dallas fed Services you also get a 7year bond auction that will be something to watch coming out at 100 p. m.
