I've lived through every Administration I've known these presidents I've known their teams nothing changed much from Clinton to Bush to Obama to Trump one to Biden maybe they got worse step by step Biden was the worst in my view uh maybe also because he was not compos mtis for the last couple of years and I say that seriously not as a snarky remark the American political system is a system of image it's a system of media manipulation every day it is a PR system and so you could have a president that basically doesn't function and
have that in power for two years and actually have that President run for reelection and one damn thing is he had to stand on a stage for 90 minutes by himself and that was the end of it had it not been that mistake he would have gone on to have his candidacy whether he was sleeping after 400 p.m. in the afternoon or not so this is actually the reality everybody goes along with it it's impolite to say anything that I'm saying because we don't speak the truth about almost anything in this world right now so
these are projects these are long-term events these aren't is it Clinton is it bush is it Obama That's the boring way to look at American Politics as the day-to-day game but that's not what American politics is so the next round of NATO enlargement came in 2004 with seven more countries the three Baltic states Romania Bulgaria Slovenia and Slovakia at this point Russia was pretty damn upset this was a complete violation of the post war order agreed with German reunification essentially it was a it it was a fundamental trick or defection of the US from a
Cooperative Arrangement is what it amounted to because they believe in unipolarity so the decision was taken in 1994 to expand NATO all the way to Ukraine this is a project this is not one Administration or another this is a US Government project that started more than 30 years ago the idea was that there would be Ukraine Romania Bulgaria turkey and Georgia as the Black Sea literal that would deprive Russia of any International status by blocking the Black Sea and essentially by neutralizing Russia as more than a local power binski is completely clear about this and
before brinsky there was mender and who owns the island of the world owns the world so this project goes back a time I think it goes back basically to Palmerston so this project began and we had a continuity of government for 30 years until maybe yesterday perhaps 30 years of a project Ukraine and Georgia were the keys to the project why because America learned everything it knows from the British and so we are the Wann toe British Empire and what the British Empire understood in 1853 Mr Palmer Lord Palmer excuse me is that you surround
Russia in the Black Sea and you deny Russia access to the Eastern Mediterranean and all you're watching is an American project to do that in the 21st century in 1997 zigu binski wrote The Grand chessboard that is not just musings of Mr binski that is the presentation of the decisions of the United States government explained to the public which is how these books work and the book describes the Eastward enlargement of Europe and of NATO as simultaneous events and there's a good chapter in that book that says what will Russia do as Europe and NATO
expand Eastward and I knews big binski personally he was very nice to me I was advising Poland he was a big help he was a very nice and smart man and he got everything wrong so in 97 he wrote In detail why Russia could do nothing but Ed to the Eastward expansion of NATO and Europe in fact he says the Eastward expansion of Europe and not just Europe but NATO this was a plan a project and he explains how Russia will never align with China Unthinkable Russia will never align with Iran Russia has no vocation
other than the European vocation so as Europe moves East there's nothing Russia can do about it so says yet another American strategist is it any question why we're in war all the time because one thing about America is we always know what our counterparts are going to do and we always get it wrong and one reason we always get it wrong is that in game theory that the American strategists play you don't actually talk to the other side you just know what the other side strategy is that's it's wonderful it saves so much time you
don't need any diplomacy in 2008 as everybody knows our former CIA director William Burns sent a long message back to condalisa Rice net means yet yet about expansion this we know from Julian Assange because believe me not one word is told to the American people about anything or to you or by any of your newspapers ERS these days so we have Julian Assange to thank but we can read the memo in detail as you know Victor yanukovich was elected in 2010 on the platform of neutrality Russia had no territorial interests or designs in Ukraine at
all I know I was there during these these years what Russia was negotiating was a 25-year lease to 20 42 for saastal Naval Base that's it not for Crimea not for the donbas nothing like that so as everybody recalls because we just had the Munich security conference last week in 2007 President Putin said stop enough enough stop now and of course what that meant was in 2008 the United States jamm down Europe's throat enlargement of NATO to Ukraine and Georgia this is a long-term project I listened to Mr sakash in New York in May of
2008 and I walked out called Sonia and said this man's crazy and a month later a war broke out because the United States told this guy we save Georgia and he stands at the Council on Foreign Relations says Georgia's in the center of Europe well it ain't ladies and gentlemen it's not in the center of Europe and the most recent events are not helpful for Georgia for its safety and your MPS going there or MEPS going there and European politicians that gets Georgia destroyed that doesn't save Georgia that gets Georgia destroyed completely destroyed so I
had a long and frustrating phone call with suvan I was standing out in the freezing cold I happen to be H trying to have a ski day and there are was Jake don't have the war oh there'll be no war Jeff we know a lot of what happened the next month which is that they refuse to negotiate the stupidest idea of NATO is the so-called open door policy are you kidding NATO reserves the right to go where it wants without any neighbor having any say whatsoever well I tell the Mexicans and the Canadians don't try
it you know Trump may want to take over Canada so Canada could say to China why don't you build a military base uh in uh in in Ontario I wouldn't advise it and the United States would not say well it's an open door that's their business I mean they can do what they want that's not our business but grown-ups in Europe repeat this in Europe in your commission your high representative this is nonsense stuff this is not even baby geopolitics this is just not thinking at all I'm telling you if I can give you my
honest view they're not very bright people and I've dealt with them for more than 40 years they talk to themselves they don't talk to anybody else they play game theory in non-cooperative Game Theory you don't talk to the other side you just make your strategy this is the of Game Theory it's not negotiation Theory it's not peacemaking Theory it is unilateral non-cooperative theory if you know formal Game Theory that's what they play it started at the Rand Corporation that's what they still play in 2019 there's a paper by Rand how do we extend Russia do
you know they wrote a paper which Biden followed how do we annoy Russia that's l literally the strategy how do we annoy Russia we're trying to provoke it trying to make it break apart maybe have regime change maybe have unrest maybe have economic crisis that's what you call your ally are you kidding on the Middle East by the way the US completely handed over foreign policy to Netanyahu 30 years ago the Israel Lobby dominates American politics just have no doubt about it I could explain for hours how it works it's very dangerous Europe has gone
silent about the jcpoa and Iran netanyahu's greatest dream in life is a war between the United States in Iran he's not given up and it's not impossible that that would come also and that's because the US in this regard does not have an independent foreign policy it is run by Israel it's tragic it's amazing by the way and it could end Trump may say that he wants foreign policy back maybe I'm hoping that it's the case I'm hoping that Trump will not destroy his administration and worse the Palestinian people because of Netanyahu who I regarded
as a war criminal uh properly indicted by the ICC and that needs to be told no more that there will be a state of Palestine on the borders of the 4th of June 1967 according to international law as the only way for peace it's the only way for Europe to have peace on your borders with the Middle East is the two-state solution there is only one obstacle to it by the way and that is the veto of the United states in the UN Security Council so if you want to have some influence tell the United
States Drop The veto you are together with 180 countries in the world the only ones that oppose a Palestinian state are the United States Israel Micronesia naaru poao Papa new guini Mr Malay and Paraguay so this is a place where Europe could have a big influence this idea that Putin is reconstructing the Russian Empire this is childish propaganda excuse me if anyone knows the daytoday and year-to-year history this is childish stuff childish stuff seems to work better than adult stuff so no designs at all the United States decided this man must be overthrown it's called
a regime change operation there have been about a hundred of them by the United States many in your countries and many all over the world that's what the CIA does for a living okay please know it it's a very unusual kind of foreign policy well we're facing Munich 1938 well we're facing Munich 1938 can't talk to the other side they're evil implacable foes that's the only model of foreign policy we ever hear from our mass media and the mass media repeats it entirely because it's completely suborned by the US government but in America if you
don't like the other side you don't negotiate with them you try to overthrow them preferably covertly if it doesn't work covertly you do it overtly you always say it's not our fault they're the aggressor they're the other side they're Hitler that comes up every two or three years whether it's Saddam Hussein whether it's Assad whether it's Putin that's very convenient that's the only foreign policy explanation the American people are ever given anywhere now when the maidan occurred I was called immediately oh Professor Sachs the new Ukrainian prime minister would like to see you to talk
about the economic crisis because I'm pretty good at that and so I flew to Kiev and I was walked around the maidan and I was told how the US paid the money for all the people around the maidan spontaneous revolution of dignity ladies and Gentlemen please where do all these media Outlets come from where does all this organization come from where do all these buses come from where all these people called in come from are you kidding this is organized effort and it's not a secret except to citizens of Europe and the United States everyone
else understands it quite clearly now in 2014 the US worked actively to overthrow yanukovich everybody knows the phone call intercepted by my Columbia University colleague Victoria nuland and the US ambassador Peter Pat you don't get better evidence the Russians intercepted her call and they put it on the internet listen to it it's fascinating I know all these people by the way by doing that they all got promoted in the Biden Administration that's the job then came Minsk and especially Minsk 2 which by the way was modeled on South Troian autonomy and the belgi could have
related to mitsk 2 very well it said there should be autonomy for the Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine it was supported unanimously by the UN Security Council Trump one raised the armaments there were many thousands of deaths in the shelling by Ukraine in the donbas there was no Minsk 2 agreement and then Biden came in into office and again I know all these people I used to be a member of the democratic party I now am strictly sworn to be a member of no party because both are the same anyway and because
this is I the Democrats became complete Wars over time and there not was not one voice about peace just like most of your parliamentarians the same way the United States and Ukraine decided it was not to be enforced Germany and France which were the guarantors of the Normandy process Let It Go and it was absolutely another direct American unipolar action with Europe as usual playing completely useless subsidiary role even though it was a guarantor of the agreement so so at the end of 1991 Putin put on the table a last effort in two security agreement
drafts one with Europe and one with the United States the US put on the table December 15 uh 21 I had an hour call with Jake Sullivan in the white house begging Jake avoid the war you can avoid the war all you have to do is say NATO will not enlarge to Ukraine and he said to me oh NATO's not going to enlarge to Ukraine don't worry about it I said Jake say it publicly no no no we can't say it publicly said Jake you're going to have a war over something that isn't even going
to happen he said don't worry Jeff there will be no war these are not very bright people lots of uh important things are uh now on offer and the table and I believe that the war will end quickly because of this and this this will be at least one blessing in a very uh very difficult time exactly what the settlement will be I think uh is now only a question of the territorial issues uh and that is whether it is the complete for oblas including all of Heron and saresia or whether whether it is on
the contact line and how all of this will be negotiated I'm not in the room of the negotiation so I can't really say more but the basis will be there will be territorial concessions there will be neutrality there will be security guarantees for Ukraine for all parties uh there will be at least with the US an end of the economic sanctions uh but what counts of course is Europe and Russia I know the Russian leaders many of them quite well they are good negotiators and uh you should negotiate with them and you should negotiate well
with them uh I would ask them some questions uh I would ask them what are the security guarantees that can work so that this war ends permanently what are the security guarantees for the Baltic states what should be done part of the process of negotiation is actually to ask the other side about your concerns not just to know what they know as you think is too true but actually to ask we have a real problem we have a real worry what are the guarantees well I want to know the answers also uh by the way
I know Mr la Minister lavro for 30 years I I regard him as a brilliant foreign minister uh talk with him negotiate with him get ideas put ideas on the table put counter ideas on the table uh I don't think all of this can be settled by pure reason because of oneself you settle Wars by negotiating and understanding what are the real issues and you don't call the other side a liar they express their issues you work out what the implications of that are for the mutual benefit of peace I think that there are and
maybe there will be a restoration of nuclear arms uh negotiations which would be extraordinarily positive I think that there are tremendously important issues for Europe to negotiate directly with Russia and so I would urge president Costa and the leadership of Europe to open direct discussions with President Putin because European security is on the table I'll just make a couple complaints first Europe is not NATO as I said I thought stoltenberg was the worst but I was wrong it just keeps getting worse could someone in NATO stop talking for God's sake about more war and could
NATO stop speaking for Europe and Europe stop thinking it's NATO this is the first absolute Point second I'm sorry but your high representative vice presidents need to become diplomats of course you don't yet have a a constitution for Europe which really underpins a European foreign policy and it can't be by unanimity there has to be a structure in which Europe can speak as Europe even with some uh dissent but with a European policy I don't want to oversimplify how to get there exactly but even with the structures you have you could do a lot better
with negotiating directly the first rule is your diplomat should be diplomats not secretaries of War a diplomat is a very special kind of talent a diplomat is trained to sit together with the other side and to listen to shake hands to smile and to be pleasant it's very hard it's a skill it's training it's a profession it's not a game you need that kind of diplomacy I'm sorry we are not hearing anything like that diplomacy means going to Moscow inviting your Russian counterpart here discussing this doesn't happen till now finlandization landed Finland number one in
the world happiness report year after year Rich successful happy and secure that's prenado so finlandization was a wonderful thing number one in the world when Sweden and Finland and Austria were neutral Bravo smart when Ukraine was neutral smart if you have two superpowers keep them apart a little bit you don't have to be right with your nose up against each other especially if one of them the US is pushing snows into the other one so Europe should be Europe with subsid don't lose all of the wonderful wonderful national and local elements but Europe should be
Europe so the good side is let's I want Europe to have diplomacy for example with Assan and I spend a lot of time with the Assan countries if the the EU green deal wonderful idea I said many years ago okay to the Assan leaders make an Assan green deal and then talk with the Europeans so that you have this uh wonderful relationship trade investment technology so last year they announced an Assan green deal what did Europe do about it nothing it said sorry we're in the Ukraine war thank you no interest so this is my
point the prospects are very positive if we construct the piece and so finlandization to my mind has a very positive connotation so does Austrian isation Austria 1955 signed its neutrality the Soviet Army left and Austria is a wonderful place by the way absolutely wonderful and so this is uh basic how to avoid conf if the United States had any sense at all it would have left these countries as a neutral space in between the US Military and Russia but that's where the US lost it but the point I would really make is that Ukraine and
Georgia were too far this is right up against Russia this is in the context of the complete destabilization of the nuclear framework this is in the context of the US putting in missile systems on Russia's borders if you listen to President Putin over the years probably the main thing if you listen carefully that he's concerned about is missiles 7 minutes from Moscow is a decapitation strike and this is very real the US Not only would freak out but did freak out when this happened in the Western Hemisphere so it's the Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse
and fortunately Nikita Kev did not stand up and say open door policy of the Warsaw Pact we can go wherever we want Cuba's asked us it's none of America's business what kushev said Is War my God we don't want war we end this crisis we both pull back that's what kushev and Kennedy decided so the most important thing is stop the yelling stop the warmongering and discuss with the Russian counterparts and don't beg to be at the table with the United States you don't need to be in the room with the United States you're Europe
you should be in the room with Europe and Russia if the United States wants to join that's fine but to beg no I have no doubt of why Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia wanted to join NATO the question is what is the US doing to make peace because NATO is not a choice of Hungary Poland Czech Republic or Slovakia NATO is a us-led military Alliance and the question is how are we going to establish peace in a reliable way and by the way Europe does not need to have Ukraine in the room when Europe talks
with Russia you have a lot of issues direct issues don't hand over your foreign policy to anybody not to the United States not to Ukraine not to Israel keep a European foreign policy this is the basic idea if I were uh making those decisions back then I would have ended NATO Al together in 1991 when those countries requested NATO I would have explained to them what our defense secretary William Perry said what our lead Statesman George Kennan said what our final ambassador to the Soviet Union Jack Matlock said uh they said well we understand your
feelings but it's not a good idea because it could provoke a new cold war with Russia so that's how I would have answered it when those countries joined uh in the first wave I don't think it was that consequential in fact except that it was part of a bigger project and the project was spelled out already in 1994 there's a very good book by Jonathan Harvard University press called hubris which uh gives a detailed historical documentation of step by step what happened and it's it's really worth reading so this is the real consequential Russia even
swallowed with a lot of pain the Baltic states Romania Bulgaria Slovakia and Slovenia it is Ukraine and Georgia and it's because of geography it's because of Lord Palmerston it's because of the first Crimean War it's because of the missile systems that this is the essence of why there was this war
