sell in 2025 and run for the damn Hills man here's the reasons why 2025 assuming we don't get some massive Great Depression happening tomorrow as some people are calling for all the time and have been calling for for years of missing the M massive massive rally in the market anyway here are the reasons why 2025 is the year to get the heck out of markets and run away before the proverbial hits the fan guys so let's get straight into this and first is of course the global liquidity cycle as you can see this is currently
on an uptrend but if you look back at previous Trends the likelihood is that we're probably going to top for this locally somewhere in 2025 have a revision downwards in 2026 grind up for the next big top in 2029 or something like that as they tend to move in these fouryear Cycles approximately so the global liquidity cycle is trending upwards central banks are cutting interest rates M2 money supply is up that's all moving the global liquidity index up okay so when this starts topping out looking like a big old fat Tower right or mountain peak
then it's probably time to get the heck out of markets before 2026 comes and we start revising the global liquidity index back down because that's when the hits the fan that's the trouble time the next is the China 4year credit cycle so you can just see on this chart look back look back 2009 2013 2014 14 2021 now if we're talking Bitcoin specific context here 2013 2017 2021 ra all Market cycle Peak tops 2009 for Global markets more broadly was not a super fantastic year we were starting to recover out of the 2008 slump but
it wasn't like you know Mega bull market Vibes right that's because the global financial crisis and of course if we again get some kind of massive us recession happening in the near future because something breaks in the system for example then all bets are off right about uh 2025 being the great year to sell maybe now is the best time to sell this very second before it all goes to hell in a hand basket but I don't think that's going to be the case I think we have a great rally ahead of us in the
market cycle still potentially seen a top and like maybe as early as q1 something like March 2025 that could catch a lot of people off guard because a lot of people are expecting the standard four-year cycle which we're going to talk about in a second but these fouryear credit Cycles in China are definitely something worth paying attention to and the next top probably in 2025 for Chinese credit cycles and when the Chinese credit cycle Tops Markets will go down following that okay before we get into the real estate cycle the yield curve all that fun
kind of stuff a real quick note to let you know about the wealth Mastery newsletter best damn newsletter in the cryptocurrency business every single week my team of writers and I we are sharing with you the latest and the greatest insights on altcoins airdrops Meme coins charts analysis the news we got the news guys that's the newsletter after all so check it out you can join 140,000 plus weekly readers for free for free check it out link Down Below in the description on YouTube or the pinned comment over on X our readers love it I'm
sure you will too so go check it out thank you very much so next up is the 18-year real estate cycle now this is an interesting one for the 18e cycle to play out it actually plays out in 2026 now there are some that are going to look at this chart and say well you know maybe there's some rhyming but 18 years is too specific and we're probably already in the downturn depression phase of that 18year real estate cycle maybe it was only a 16-year cycle this time and the yeah real estate moves in these
big Cycles because it's such a gargantuan asset class etc etc etc but the 18year model it just isn't a perfect fit right now the market downturn for property is already here it's all over this is not the mid cycle correction for that but if the cycle holds true and that the is a big butt right but if it does hold true then real estate has one final melt up potentially when interest rates start getting cut people start aping back into real estate again before the really hits the fan in 2026 and property markets correct down
once again I know what you're thinking there hasn't there already been enough pain in property markets potentially and potentially we could already be in that depression phase of the real estate cycle but the 18 years is 2026 so maybe 202 five ends up having a nice bounce maybe a dead cat bounce or a bit more dead dog bounce bit bigger right dead monkey bounce I don't know some kind of Bounce in 2025 leading to of course the final big collapse for Real Estate marks in 2026 multi-year accumulation period let's say downtrend the next is the
yield curve I know you hear a lot about the yield curve basically yield curves when shortterm bonds are paying better rates than long-term bonds the yield curve has been inverted for 2 years the longest period since the Great Depression which is leading some people to say hey because this yield curve thing we're basically going to have a new Great Depression and it's going to be the worst depression recession economic event of the century and it's all going to be over and that's scary man chances are they'll try and print a bunch of money to make
sure that that doesn't happen when they can only print money so long before eventually the US just buckles under the weight of its own money printing regardless the yield curve is currently in the process of uninverted now that doesn't mean that the yield curve UN inverts today and then tomorrow there's a recession it doesn't work like that these are big things that have delayed effects so maybe the yield curve has uninverted but it's going to take six months maybe longer maybe a bit less before recession finally hits enough things are starting to break in the
markets that recession hits six months from now for example or markets top six months from now and then start going down so again maybe we look at a q1 top March for examp example of 2025 Market stop and then we go down to Hell in hand basket okay so this is worth keeping in mind here as well we also have of course Very specifically it's all macro stuff we' been talking about so for very specifically for Bitcoin we have the Bitcoin fouryear cycle basically every four years Bitcoin finds a new cycle Peak always comes after
the Bitcoin having anywhere from 12 to 18 months post Bitcoin having now if this holds true for this cycle then the absolute latest that we're likely to see that happen is December 2025 potentially it could come a lot earlier though historically if you look back at all the fouryear Cycles we had so far they've all come within about a month of November 28th uh of the fourth year of you know 2025 2021 2017 2013 Etc so in that case latest probably December 2025 but if we have a cycle like 21 but without the second rally
that might lead us to a March 2025 cycle Peak Bitcoin fouryear cycle has been a pretty powerful thing so far and I know there's a lot of fear in the markets and this could be derailed Again by some massive dysfunction and US markets leads to a US recession I keep pointing this out because nobody has a crystal ball okay I don't have a crystal ball we have models we have charts we have ideas to work on right but there are always things out there that are happening that are beyond our control and sometimes can hit
the fan in markets right so you have to be careful about that but assuming that we don't see the Bitcoin fouryear cycle completely derailed than post Bitcoin having usually about six months after the Bitcoin having this putes on par for about on course for about let's say late September or sometime in October for a big rally to start for Bitcoin maybe that's when we finally go back over 72k start the new rally into the end of the year the final leg of the market the Elliot waiver guys are out here saying it's gonna be the
fifth uh wave of the market cycle and then that is when the Market's going to top for Bitcoin the bare Market will start after that sometime in 2025 we also have the pi cycle top indicator last few Cycles been basically perfectly called by the pi cycle top indicator 2020 for example it came within a day or two of the 64k top now it didn't call the 69k top later on that year but honestly had you simply sold at 64k and then all your altcoins within the fall two weeks you would have done you would have
out reformed 99% of people in the market okay because a lot of people were held down and held back up to 69k and didn't sell okay definitely not something to fade if we get it triggered so you can't only wait around for that one thing to trigger but if it does trigger then it's probably on course to trigger sometime in 2025 especially if we go to Rapid expansion into the end of the year it could again trigger in like February or March or April of 2025 and that would be something not to fade when it
hits pay attention get out run for the hills everyone of course when that happens going to be convincing you no no no look bitcoin's $150,000 whatever now it's gonna go to 500k don't sell now it's gonna go 500k maybe it does maybe you'll be wrong to the upside but chances are it's not going to go to 500k and those people will get stuck and they'll have to ride their bags down to zero or you know whatever they go down to in the bare Market the dollar Index another thing we talk about this kind of again
more macro but very much related to the price of Bitcoin so recently the dollar Index has been in a downtrend it's been struggling to hold on to the 200 we moving average so basically the rise of risk assets happens when the dollar loses strength now usually once the 200 we exponential moving average has been lost for the dxy you can basically start the clock running because usually have you know six months or something like that before markets Peak again we can go back to our q1 thesis we can go back to the yield curve and
it how being about a six-month lead sometimes into recessions and all that kind of stuff right so a lot of things to consider here and look none of this necessarily predicts the future what happened in the past does not guarantee something's going to happen in the future obviously markets are chaos very few make it out in profit tops are only obvious in hindsight the top could come earlier than people expect it could come even at the end to 2024 and catch everybody off guard or it could come early 2025 and catch enough people off guard
or it come late 2025 and be consensus but still probably catch most people off Garden because most people won't sell nobody knows when it's going to come one thing I don't know for sure 100% is that if you do not sell especially your altcoins you are going to be screwed super hard when the bare Market comes you won't have any options you'll have bags are down 99% and you'll think why did I do this now what's selling meeme do you need to sell all your crypto coins and stocks obviously not but keep in mind that
stuff like high-risk Alt coins mem coins they're going to go down 99% you can keep your Bitcoin if you're happy to ride 60 70% downside volatility yourp of 100 stuff whatever sure fine all good your tech stocks probably going down massively and look here's a a final closing thought for you you need to take your profits or the market will take them for you and you have to remember that you cannot compound wealth from cycle to cycle and buy those bare Market fire sales if you never take profits you've got to especially with your altcoins
okay again Bitcoin whole cycle cycle whatever you'll be fine especially with the altcoins you got to get the heck out man you got to run for the hills when the time comes okay put it all in cash wait when the bare Market really heats up and everybody's losing their minds and is you know talking about the end of times on your timeline probably a good time to buy back in and then you can 10x your money again in the next cycle but if you don't sell you can't do that thanks for watching
