hello and welcome to howard's horse handicapping this is howard kravitz welcome back to the channel hope you had a great week the first thing you do is make sure down below you hit that subscribe button hit that notification bell and please also i want to hear comments and see your comments underneath the video so we can improve the channel i love to hear from you because this is going to be a fantastic video that you're going to see today so let's talk a little bit about last week before we do that hopefully this is the last video that you're going to see that's a little bit goofy with the technical issues i'm going to be getting professional mic also working on some other things and so hopefully this is the last time that you'll uh the video won't be quite as perfect as i'd like it to be let's talk about last week quickly i had two picks on my channel started off the channel with a great success had a pick four a sixty four dollar caveman ticket and it hit for four hundred and forty dollars hope you guys have that nine talks about the late pick five on saturday gulfstream had a tough one there had a horse pacific gale i never would have had so that bet didn't come through when you bet pick fours and pick fives you're most likely going to frankly lose more of those bets than you're gonna win but here's the key when you hit you need to hit bid and that's what happened last week for us so we spent 132 on one tickets 64 on another and those were just caveman tickets for 196. of a cost but got back 440. so again you need to be patient again if you play pick fours pick fives you're probably gonna lose more of those tickets then you win don't get frustrated the key is when you hit you need to make sure you hit big so let's talk about today's video so a lot of people were asking you howard how do you handicap a race what goes into a race now there's a lot of really good handicappers out there there's a lot of good programs and software that you can get to handicap today i'm just going to show you what i like to do again there's many different ways to do it i don't have all the answers but i have had a lot of success and if you really want to do well in horse racing you definitely need to take time and handicap the right way so i'm going to go i'm going to i show you the process that i use to handicap a race and it's going to be mainly through the lens of daily racing forms uh formulator pps so we're going to take a look at that so the first thing i'm going to do here is i'm going to share my screen and i'm going to show you what's on the agenda for today which we'll do right now here in just a second so as i'm setting this up you're going to see what the plan is again just bear with me here a second and you'll see what we're going to be doing so the first thing we're going to talk about let me grab this for you so here's our plan for today let me just get this up for you sorry about that and had it ready for you but disappeared on me okay so let's talk about what we do here so here's our plan for today and this will be a little bit of a longer video just to let you know but i think it's important to talk about it so how do i handicap a race we're going to go through quickly very quickly through drf formulators program and its features and then we're going to talk about a race that happened sunday at gulfstream race six we're going to talk about race flow buyer numbers which is what i like to use personally we're going to talk about class we're going to watch a replay or two possibly and then we're going to talk about angles so these are the things that i go through every time i want to handicap a race this is what i look at in order to do that so first let's take a look at drf formulator so dr formulator is a great program that i like to use and again you can buy this through daily racing form now i just want to make this very clear once again to everyone i do not work for daily racing form i don't get any money for uh suggesting you you buy this this is just what i like to do and what i believe is best this works best for me so very briefly as you can see at the top you can see that the condition of the race that it's a mile race we're gonna look at a mile turf race this is twenty thousand dollar claimers down to sixteen claimers non-winners of two lifetime that's at n2o again some of you already know this some of you might be a little more beginners i'm going to try to play the summer in the middle you can see where they start the race it's pretty short run that first turn and it's firm conditions all right now there's a lot of really great features you can use draft formulator for anything you see in blue here blue handwriting or blue fonts are active links that you can press and see what happens for example you can take a look at the site you can press temple city there and you can see what happens you know i need to go to another program sorry second let me go back to this i had to go to my interactive link okay so again anything in blue you can click on so for example i can click on temple city there and you can see here's uh temple city these are all this is the record so temple city has had 555 offspring so he's um has 555 horses that would call temple city their father you can see race records all sorts of things statistics etc and then here are the past performances of the sire temple city and you so this was a very talented horse obviously you can see the buyers are excellent they're um involved in graded stake races all over the place mainly long on turf you can also for example look at trainer situations so if i click on edward pleaser there a junior here's his stats you can see his all-time stats there you can see his most recent races are there and you can also do a lot of the things like for example if you hit the customize button there there also are things you can break down by many different categories and you can look and see what else you might want to take a look at which we'll also do a little bit later now the other thing i really like about drf formulator is if you look on the left side in blue here if you press the december 20th on the left side it says december 20th if you click on that this is diligence last race so here are the here's the standard chart or what happened in dylgen's last race and here's what i also really like if you look here these are all the horses that were in the same uh that were in the race that dylgen just ran and if you see the darker bold uh names those are also horses that are in this race today so when i see there's four horses that were in the race last time that are in the race today that means i'm definitely to watch this replay and try to compare share the blame diligent bad boy ej and maverick kitten and see how they uh compare to themselves also anything in italicized b catcher that means b catcher one is last race so that also is a good indicator how strong the race is now the great thing there's race replay and you can click on the replay there and we can watch the race which we will watch uh not this very moment but even watch the race also so there's a lot of great things you can do and we're going to be talking about all that as we go along so that's a very very brief look at drf formulator and some of the things you can do you can also by the way take notes of either what you see or what you're going to see if you see there it says notes sort of in the middle of the screen and if i press notes you can there's a drop down you can add a note for the card if you can tell your gulfstream card you can add a note for a trip that the horse got or you can just add a general note about the horse so there's a lot of things you can do there also which we are also going to do so there's a brief uh history or example of what happens with tierra formulator all right now let's take a look at our agenda here so we're going to look at the race the first thing we're going to take a look at is what i look at first usually which is race flow how is the race going to be run so i'm going to click back to this feature now where i can actually right and highlighting here so if you look at the race you will see that there are pace time form us pace figures at the top here you see them right here that i've highlighted all right so the higher the number the obviously the faster or the better number there so you can buy time form also a lot of people like to use time form also and what time form us will do is at at the top of their past performances they have sort of a a check a square there where they write the chiclets and you can see what they believe is going to be the fastest horses early and how it's going to set up so for example they might have an eight tier one i'm just making this up right now maybe three is a dead closer of course the horses are going this way so that means eight is projected to be on the lead one will be in second this is just their expectation it is based on real data they're not just guessing but here's the issue a horse might stumble horse might be uh get bumped out of the gate the uh trainer might tell the jockey let's not go to the lead this time there are a million factors that could occur it's not set in stone and time form also will tell you which i don't usually use but it'll tell you if they expect a very fast pace a very slow pace something between etc so all right sometimes it frees up on me there i apologize all right so we're gonna be talking about race flow and a bunch of other things also let's see if i can go back to that all right so when i look at this race dil one of the first things i do is i try to figure out what the flow the race is going to be so when i look at diligence here he's got a 94 as you can see that's usually for this class it's pretty pretty quick as you scroll down you see l solitario only a 70.
and you can just go scroll down etc and you can take a look and uh bad boy ej 58 as you can see uh maverick kitten 56. there's 73 59 so far the one is the highest share the blame 54 king otakar 78 where are you going owen 83 and emoji guy 74. so first of all what that tells me is it's not a very fast paced situation there's no horses that have in the hundreds and not only that but it seems a favor the one in this race because the one has the fastest figs uh for the early pace so that tells me i'm gonna keep back my mind that diligent should be near the lead and projects to get a pretty soft trip because there's just not a lot of speed in the race all right which means of course that also tells me that this race is going to be hard to close into so any horse that has speed i'm going to automatically upgrade based on that buyers now i like buyers there's you can use rags you can use the sheets time form us numbers there's aqua base numbers there's a lot of different speed figures that you can use in order to look at a race so certainly one size does not fit all i prefer buyers after i try to develop the race flow i then take a look at just scroll write down the pps and ask myself who has the best buyers who's improving declining expecting a ford move etc so let's take a look at that so the buyer figs are right here it's this first column you can see there's 70 and 67 most recently recently this horse has got only 60 59 etc and again you can just look at all these i'm not going to highlight all of them but you just go down to pp's you can look at who's fastest etc there's map for kitten it's got pretty much high 60s pretty consistent doesn't look like that horse is getting any better again mid 60s has a 170 okay not bad rickens is interesting has some numbers that are okay at back numbers but recently you take a look at his recent efforts they don't look too good so i just quickly look through that share the blame has got some good numbers based on this race 7274 etc king otakar has some big numbers he's got 78 278 83 and 79 bath numbers this horse clearly uh has some of the fastest figs etc and you can just look at all the races there where you're going owen and emoji guy again appears to be a little bit slow right now so that's the next thing that i look at okay now who's expecting a forward move that can be tricky that takes years of experience to look at but it is something that you need to certainly uh understand and work on so when i look at this race i ask myself who's going to improve well in my personal opinion you can see that diligent here is very lightly erased only six starts as you can see there at the top right and it looks like he's improving so to me i'm going to put an arrow up there meaning i think the source is going to continue to improve it's just a guess it's like the stock market you're trying to figure out what is going to happen in this race today uh el sartario just looks way too slow bad boy ej a little bit up and down but again looks too slow i probably won't even consider him member kitten consistent but really not improving so i just keep in the back of my mind it's a horse that i'm probably not going to use too much in the race depending on other situations montauk summer is interesting extremely light race only has four lifetime starts for an excellent trainer christopher coleman and louis um but numbers appear to be a little slow maybe a forward move this would be a question mark really not sure what to do with this horse i have to look more into detail all right then you've got riggins who looks like he's declining so i'm not sure he's going to take a forward move i'd probably put a down arrow there meaning i don't really like the way that he appears to be moving right now share the blame is pretty much he is improving slightly but not very much he's staying about the same and then king otakar so he is off a layoff he hasn't raced since august 7th so it's really hard to know what he's going to do but to expect a big ford move seems unlikely he's probably going to run somewhere in the low to mid 70s i think you could project which in this race is clearly good enough to win where are you going owen again looks way too slow to me emoji guy is very lightly raced but has a lot of improving to do doesn't look that much of a factor so to me the 10 right now looks like the best horse in terms of the numbers the one to me uh looks like uh he could be ready for an improve we'll just have to see and look at other factors all right class who's rising class who's dropping class so let's take a look back we'll take a look now i just literally just go right down the pp's i'm going to move things along a little bit more here and again remember now this is a 20 claimer non-winner is a two so the one was in the same class but he is improving his two has been in the same class again the three has been the same class for a long time that's not a good sign the four has been in similar class for not quite as long the six is the question mark this horse was in a main special weight is dropping a little bit down from 30 claimers so he certainly could be live uh riggins was into big time races in terms of class earlier in his career relative to other horses in this race but he was in the same class last time didn't do anything at all sure the blame has also been in the same class multiple times which is never a good sign in my opinion and then you get to king otaka look at king otakar in terms of class absolutely lays over the field in terms of class you can see here it's got allowance races optional 25 allowance races was actually even in a grade stake race in 2019 the source is by far by far the class of this field on paper where you going owen again same class level not much emoji guy is dropping down a little bit so you could say he's interesting maybe he has upside but seems very slow right now so based on that you'd have say 10 is clearly the class of the race replays who's coming out of common races who has troubleships replays folks are huge you need to take the time and watch replays if you can now i mentioned that diligent and how do you know by the way who is coming out of what races etc you have to look and see because it's not always easy to tell but obviously you're looking for the same dates i see december 20th there and there's another december 20th though that was a different race but bad boy ej's coming out of the digital footprint race anyway you take a look at the dates and you see okay there's four horses coming out of the same race and when i click on the date there you can see and i mentioned this already share the blame diligent bad boy ej and maverick kitten are all coming out of the same race all right now let's take a look at the replay so we have a better understanding of what to watch so drf formula will do that for you and the great thing today is if you look on the right side you see share the blame is the one horse in this replay diligence the two bad boy ej's the four maverick kitten is the 11.
so what you want to do is watch for the one two four and 11 in this race the one two four and eleven so let's see if we can get this to work here all right sorry about that oh first time so let's just go watch the one two four and eleven here so what i see right away is the two dylgen has speed got out of the gate well again we're looking at the 1 2 4 and 11. now what i notice right away and i'm sorry for pausing it but the 11 who's maverick kitten in this race is already in the three path already a little bit wide you never want to be wide on the first turn and surf race meanwhile one share the blame is saving all the ground on the inside so i'm gonna go ahead and stop it right there so the two got the first quarter in 23 and two and the half and 47. at this level that's a pretty decent pace not only that he is facing some pace pressure on the outside i noticed the 11's in between horses a little bit hard to tell you can watch the video on your own i'm in red and white you don't want to be in between so right now i'm an african 11 has been three wide and has been between horses the one meanwhile share the blame has got an absolute dream trip no excuse on the inside the two of course is diligent who's setting a somewhat pressured pace and the four right now is at the end of the screen there back saving ground on the inside so let's stop it right there so diligent when three quarters of one ten and three now gulfstream can be a bit speed favoring no question about it uh and is a pretty fast turf course but for this level that's pretty fast one ten and three and he's had to be used pretty hard to get there so this has not been an easy trip the alum by the way is swinging on the outside and the red and white had a little bit of trouble um in terms of the trip in my opinion the one a little bit hard to see on the screen there the second from the inside and about sixth or seventh with the i believe like the green silks and the four is behind him uh trying to close also and i'll just go ahead let's just watch the stretch so there's the finish the race and what i want to show you is the two ends up finishing i believe fifth there on the inside the horse just to his outside which you can't see right now because of the um the play arrow there that was the one who was making a nice close finished fourth however to get a perfect trip and a pretty good setup the whole time uh the 11 is and the four are both going to be further back i'll just let you play i'll play it out here so there's the four and the 11 they are just finishing again the four made no threatening move whatsoever i would definitely not use the four in this situation the 11 looked like the horse just the rioters sort of pulled him up probably can race better than that um so the 11 would be a bit interesting to me so what does that tell me well that tells me a few things first of all let me back up here so again what that tells me what i read from this in my personal opinion is you have to upgrade the one the one got the lead but was setting a pressured pace the entire time went fast you can see the fractions say unavailable there for his last race let me go back and use this these past performances where i can write in this and again i apologize for the a little bit of a delay here as i'm using a program called notability so what that tells me is diligent to me is better definitely uh better than again who's else is in this race so definitely better than bad boy ej who was the four in that video and in my personal opinion he's better than the nine the nine in this race uh go ahead so excuse me there's maverick kitten ever kitten by the way is the eleven the four uh who was the eleven of the replay a little bit interesting so you know i would put in terms of the replay maybe an upgrade question mark depending on what you think the problem is the source doesn't seem to be getting any faster in terms of his buyers but the nine who i'm gonna again scroll down to here share the blame who was the one in the race we just saw i personally would downgrade this horse based on the video i just saw again you have to watch a lot of replays and be used to it um know what to look for etc it takes a lot of practice so next to dylgen i'm gonna write in and i'm just going to hand write this in just for my own personal notes i'll go ahead and put this in different color i'll go ahead and put this in purple here i would say the one over and i put a little oh that means better than the four and the nine and probably eleven these are all the horses that are excuse me not the 11.
it's gonna be the three four and nine are coming out of this series so i think though this horse is better than three four and nine in this race today just my opinion based on everything i saw now another thing that you're going to want to look at and let me go back to the replay because it's very important to do that so let me go back to the replay here if you go back and look at the replay here's the chart of the race that we just watched okay and what you're going to notice here and i can't use my pen right now so you have to look carefully but if you look in the column all the way on the right where it says finish so digital footprint obviously one beat catcher second shining through third share the blame fourth when i jacked it etc but look at the quarter time this is where the horses were at the first quarter the horses that came first second third and fourth after the first quarter were fourth fifth eighth and ninth what does that tell you that means the race sort of fell apart and it favored closers for sure as you can see on the video that means you should upgrade speed well dylgent was the only speedorus really that was up close and hung around so again upgrade diligent in my opinion okay so now we talked about all that trouble trips etc replays you can look and see who has trouble trips let me just go back there are short comments that i think most of you know about of course and if you look at the form you can see all the way on the right side there in the blue are the short comments you see bump start two three wide driving for the second one back so looking at the short comments let me just go back here and oh can't get it up here right now but anyway looking at the short comments is another way if you see a horse with trouble you definitely might want to watch those replays also now trainer angles jockey changes layoffs that's the last thing that we're going to take a look at so this race does not have a lot of those however there are a few things worth noting so i'm looking for one of the first things i look for is see if there's any jockey changes in this race that might be of interest to me and just scrolling through uh bad boy ej as a jockey change to corey lannery from miguel vasquez not too much of a change there um so there's really not much to look at from a jockey perspective so far montauk summer let's talk about the source for a second so this horse which a lot of people would use in this horse in this race end up being five to two so he was second choice in this race over the 10. source cost 130 000 decent sized price tag uh well bred this horse was in for 30 and now the connections are just pretty much giving up on this horse and putting them for twenty thousand that is a bad sign to me i know it's clemod i know it's sayas the horse could win but i do not like to drop down the situation it just seems like they're giving up on the horse to me that is not a good sign whatsoever so it's probably a horse i would use but not as strongly as some other ones another angle that i like to look at is their record now share the blame looks decent on buyers however if you look at his lifetime pp's here look at the top right you'll see that he's one for 15 and although he's been in the money he's definitely not a win machine that was the one by the way in the replay so i'm a little bit negative to the nine also because it doesn't seem like he can clear his condition i don't know if the source is improving and he goes from the rail to the nine hole and he's a closer so there's a bunch of things that he's sort of against in my opinion he's nine to two but he could win but to me not quite as likely then you go to the ten now the 10 is dropping down he was the favorite in this race seems very logical if he's already off the layoff and you could look at trainer stats but here's the big difference between for example the 9 and the 10. the 10 is also only one for nine all these horses have only one once however this horse has been facing much much tougher so if he's ready you have to figure that this horse appears to be uh ready to win this race even from the 10 slot so after looking all that here were my final picks for this race so my a's my top choice would be the one and the ten i put a star by the one because i really like the one quite a bit in this race for a lot of reasons he's not gonna be the favorite projects to be on the lead or very close to the lead um got a pressure pace last time should be slower this time could be improving i use six nine as bs that's mon the montauk horse and the ni uh and also the horus that we uh discussed who had the one in the replay and then four seven and 12 you could use defensively but i don't think they're really likely winners now let's go and watch the replay of this race and actually see what happened and let's take a look at the results so let's watch the race i'm just let you watch it and then we'll comment afterwards now at this point i thought the one might have a lead but he's sitting a perfect trip on the inside the 10 the favorite showed more speed than i thought and you can see the other horses they're lining up you can see the chiclets at the bottom just for full disclosure i made a decent sized windbed on the one and you look at the odds there on the screen on the left side i was shocked the one was seven to one i loved the odds on this horse i couldn't believe i was getting seven to one for the reasons i mentioned the favorite was king otaka or two to one montauk summer was the second choice of six horses five to two and the shirt the third choice was share of the blame the nine horse in this race who again was the one horse in the replay race that i didn't especially like so of the four top choices in this race based on my handicapping the one i liked the most was the biggest price i was looking my chops our sound disappear enough so i'll just do a little amateur race calling here but again the big bomb was on the lead where you going owen the chalk king otakar was on the outside uh maverick kitten who was the 11 in the replay race uh showed more speed which was somewhat predictable to me only because he was ranked and remember that was the horse that was three wide so you see the one getting another a great trip maverick kitten's been wide the whole time and king otakar takes over montauk summer the six on the outside and here comes diligent splitting horses getting a nice trip i thought i was gonna get there at the one oh brutal beat there in terms on the win end so that was unfortunate we're gonna go back here again from the top of the stretch the one bumped a little bit with the four but really overall got a nice inside outside trip i thought he had a chance to run down the favorite here you see 12 on the inside and as they approach the wire it was really close and the wire was just before they just couldn't quite get there so the final results were right here so king o'takar won diligent ran a nice race in second montauk summer third i played a nice exacto box 110 and the two dollar the dollar exactly paid 2880 which i was really happy with so i had that several times i miss on the one end of the one i also had the trifecta and the 50 cent try was decent 54.
