Global Yields Nearing A Breaking Point | Weekly Roundup

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Superior economics and best-in-class security hey everyone so we recorded this Roundup yesterday and I felt like it was important to be able to still have an analysis uh and a snapshot into what happened with the jobs report that happened this morning so what I thought I would do is just do a little you know 10-minute Preamble where we discuss the reason print and then we can look into how that reflects things and see from there how we're thinking about the market from then on so I'm just going to go through a few of the different

data points and then my initial take on it and then we'll go from there so right off the bat here I'm just going to pull up the data points but we got the draws report this morning and it came in very hot uh by all measures so non-farm Payrolls itself came in at 256,000 versus the consensus 160,000 jobs so way above expectations and not only that and this is the one that really surprised me as well um is that the unemployment rate actually down ticked so we saw it com in up 4.1% versus the consensus

of 4.2 and that's been a decrease since the previous month um one other really notable Point here is you just look at the bottom non-farm private payrolls very very very strong That came in at 223,000 versus the consensus 135 so by all accounts if you look at all data points this is a blockbuster job support um and as always with any of my analysis of the labor market I really lean on the burning glass institute's charts and Analysis here I think they do a really fantastic job of just really understanding and Distilling and visualizing the

data so this is a really great chart here that just shows the unemployment rate path Compared to the current fomc summary economic projection so they're forecast of the unemployment rate and what we can see is we downtick significantly um So currently their forecast for 2025 is to basically go to 4.3% and sit flat there and we've actually seen a a downward tick lower like I mentioned to 4.1% so what does this mean is that the labor market is even stronger than what was expected in the dot plots just a month ago So obviously a lot

of talk happens around revisions related to the jobs report and the nonfarm payrolls so just wanted to dig into that so in October we saw revisions increase from 36,000 to 43,000 and then for November we saw them actually get a downward revision by 15,000 so from 227,000 to 212 so that gives you a net lower revision of 8,000 jobs now this is the thing and I've said this a few times but the revisions are quite linear they're They're not really convex so it's quite easy to linearly extrapolate what you would assume is the revision so

this is what this chart does here where um KY Berger just basically bakes in the assumed revision into the nonform fal and that's what that uh strong line is compared to the dotted line so what we can see is that if you look at the dotted line and you bake in these revisions it's still obviously you can see that there's been a rebound higher Despite these revisions you can just bake it in from the GetGo effectively part-time for economic reasons um this is a really interesting one for just seeing you know there's been a lot

of this talk about you know if somebody's losing their job they don't want to go you know f for industrial joess claims or anything they can go get a part-time draw for economic reasons like door Dash or Uber um and so to see this reverse lower is also quite Notable that there's some strength forming in the labor market now this is this is the money one for really understanding what are the Dynamics that are being affected by the strength or weakness um in terms of layoffs and that Dynamic this is the key one so this

chart just breaks it apart and we can look at the most important one is the black line so permanent layoffs this is the one where if we were seeing signs of an early recession or Something like that we would see the skyrocketing so last month we saw this tick up higher um but we've seen a full reversal of that which is very notable at the same time that we're actually seeing job levers so people voluntarily quitting their jobs has actually ticked up higher which is really interesting so you know if there's confidence to your job

and that you have the confidence that you can go get another job in Fairly short order that's also another Positive sign for the labor market so that's that's the job report at a high level but there's obviously different more high frequency data points that we can look at as well so I just wanted to discuss as well the initial claims Point here um so this comes out every week we had this recent Point come out um just you know the last couple days and what's really interesting here is we've just seen a full reversal of

this uptick in initial Claims data if you look at the four-week moving average which Smooths out a lot of this noise you can see we're in a we're in a down move so this this data is seasonally adjusted um so there is that uh but effectively what we're seeing here is that the labor market is reaccelerating and then another key Point here is also just around jobs um openings so we got the drills report earlier this week as well so that gives a pretty good insight Into seeing what is the availability of the jobs market

right now and we've been in a pretty steady decline in job openings for the past two years and this was a lot of the premise behind why the FED felt like they could achieve a soft Landing is that they could try to lower inflation while there's this buffer of a lot of job openings so that as people you know lost their jobs there was this buffer where there was still a ton of jobs open that they could file into so We saw this decrease in basically bottom out in September and we've actually seen a pretty

significant rebound higher in job openings which is also quite telling so there's a lot of you know what I feel like was pent up decisions from corporations to hire that they wanted to wait until we saw a resolution from the election um you know we had Danny Dan that joined the round up a few weeks ago and this has been a lot of his thesis so Props to him on that one but effectively What we're seeing is a lot of validation of this right now so where does that leave us it leaves us in a

world with what looks like a very solid draw support even compared to expectations for a month ago from the Fed so we need to start to think about how that gets reflected against their dual Mandate of inflation as well what we're seeing is starting to tick up higher be sticky whatever you want to call it but the fact is when we get these data points That come in like this that are providing a lot of strength for the labor market at the same time that we're starting to see some some on the margin inflation concerns

that shifts the focus of the Fed so start to get reflected in Market and pricing for The Cutting cycle right now and effectively what we're seeing now is that the market is saying The Cutting cycle is done and this is what's really interesting is that Bank of America has Said yes it's done but also we think there's risk for a potential hike so this is pretty much the first time I've seen any talk about a reversal towards talking about hikes and this is very notable um you know for starting the shift towards a world where

we're thinking about hikes again in the next year or so so that can have some pretty interesting impacts on risk assets so effectively you know going into this there's about one to two cuts priced for 2025 um you know this chart here at the bottom is just showing the March meeting and you can see that yesterday we were at about uh 40% odds of a cut in March and now we're down substantially to about like 30% um so it's it's highly likely that we're going to see a pause now in March January is already baked

in as a pause there was no real you know change there it's it's been pretty baked in maybe if we saw a really weak draws Report we could see talk about a cut in in January but that's clearly off the table now so as we navigate this we have to start to you know shift our thinking a little bit towards okay the FED is is prioritizing it has to prioritize inflation once again there's no real reason for them to try to ease based on labor market data like we were seeing in August and September was

quite weak and that gave them a lot of validation to cut significantly this is basically the Complete opposite now so it's going to shape 2025 um and again this is being reflected we've seen we've seen Bon yields surge higher over the last day or so and you start to have to think about okay this is labor market data from the past couple months but we're seeing some tightening of financial conditions right now we're seeing bond yields rise across the Spectrum how does that get reflected in the growth narrative six to eight months from now and

so you know Generally speaking as we see these increases in bond yields one might think that that could have a slowing effect on the economy if you just use the simple analog of of mortgage rates in the housing market higher mortgage rates that's putting a a a pressure on basically income um and just the ability to afford House housing prices Etc so this was by all means a very strong report um and definitely shifts The Narrative for 2025 to be more towards Hawkishness um and tightening compared to the dovish inclinations that we've had for the

past six months so I hope that helps um you know the rest of the Roundup is still very very useful impression we sort of had this mindset of there's a lot of of hawkish just priced in but it could still occur so still a very useful episode and a ton in there to dig in so you know don't just uh jump out now definitely stay and commit for that one because it's a great Episode all right thanks everybody all right welcome back happy New Year random Edition for guidance we got the trio back in 2025

man it's been a few weeks I have been itching to get back to chatting with you guys how's your New Year what's going on guys Happy New Year I'm tired it's been at home with the kids for two weeks chasing them around good Lord you think a it's a vacation it's not a vacation it's a vacation for Qu you guys were skiing and having fun I dad dad dad that's all I've heard no it's good it's good it's good to be back though missed you guys the Fridays are uh I guess Thursday today but highlight

of my week it's fun to always fun to talk shop really is I feel like I've had so many like fragmented thoughts that you know normally we get this this Mo this hour every week to just kind of digest and distill things and I just feel like my brain has been scattered so I'm excited to uh get back and S of things with you guys um you got a cool new background you got a you got a blueberg showing off there now yeah look at that thing that's that's called Bloomberg yeah a lot of good

prices a lot of good prices lot of good data points to get lost in I gotta it's a great product you know I don't you know everyone's forced to use it because it's so damn good but it's like 30 grand a year or something something insane for Yeah it's tough to stomach but yeah it useful stuff you get your charts for free yeah let me tell you about trading view trading view is pretty good for free service it's true it's true it's true okay before we get into the swing of things got to do a

little shill Fest here um digital asset Summit happening in March in New York the three of us going to be there a lot of great guests that are regular on for guance are also Going to be there Joseph Wang um we have Muhammad alerian who's going to be one of the keynote speakers and just anoun today I am Mohammad alaran I love the Jets sorry and now and now he's about to cancel I like him I like him he's a good guy me too he's awesome he's he's no second best to the one and only

Michael sailor of micro strategy who was just announced that he will be speaking at it as well um so you Know come on by meet us meet Michael here hear him talk hear about uh the digital Bitcoin hornet nest or whatever he calls it um but yeah get your tickets it's gonna be a ton of fun we're all going to be there so don't miss up big land that's awesome yeah huge land very you know props to the events team I just get to show off but they've been grinding he's a huge uh fan of

four guidance I heard he should be for how much we well We don't always hype it up sometimes we say it to sell everything because it's trading at a 3X premium and that's [ __ ] ridiculous so Nuance takes as always balanced yeah in Balance Fox News yeah so I want to spend this episode just talking about our approach to 2025 it's been a few weeks since we've caught up um it feels like a lot of has changed but also not a lot has changed we obviously had that pretty hawkish fomc meeting that took a

lot of People by surprise I mean just look at the the impact on the vix during those days just to see how offside everybody was compared to what actually occurred and that sort of contextualized a lot of market dynamics since um um I know I've had a lot of time to think about how I'm approaching this year I know you know you both have and so I think what we could do is just you know I think a few of us have just some different ideas or themes to talk a bit about and that are

Going to dominate 2025 and and we can go through a few of them and obviously you know we start from the top line here and the first one I want to bring up is this idea of whether we see an economic slowdown or not in 2025 um you know I would say about a month ago this was very non-consensus as an idea of this potential grow slowdown um that could occur in q1 this year it's feels like it's starting to become a lot more consensus um we haven't necessarily seen That much economic data roll over

per se but you know if you just look at like the surprise index economic surprise that part has been rolling over but not the absolute you know data points so it's still in this this transition phase away from you know what I would characterize as from August until November or something of just constant upside surprises now we're starting to see some some downside surprises um so for Me that's my framework you know I guess you know I'll call myself consensus but to me I I view this you know you look at what's going on we'll

talk about this a bit more in terms of what's been going on with the long bond yields and that but these there's these factors that really are starting to affect the economy um you know mortgage rates are just getting decimated while inventories increase in the housing market and I think that's going to be another major Influence on the gross story for 2025 so I'm roughly in the camp of slowdown at least for the beginning um but I also think that people are getting a bit over their skis in terms of front running that I feel

like it's a bit too soon as well so I'm curious how both of you guys are thinking about that yeah I have a slide on page um I think it's slide 35 just showing the ISM Manufacturing us manufacturing non- manufacturing indices which are kind of turning up a little Bit you you know they bottomed I guess in 2023 is and and started to Peak back um obviously the labor Market's been deteriorating fundamentally for a while that's not really anything new and it's what really kicked off the growth scare in the summer but you know I

think people are getting over their skis quite a bit because while we're not going to be growing at the 2023 levels you know real GDP is still expected to be you know in the mid tws And you have inflation uh which add on top to the real GDP you're still getting a nominal uh you know pretty elevated growth growth level and so you know I think there's a lot of pro business pro regulatory progrowth aspects of a trump Administration and it feels like we are uh getting to a point of peak Trump fearmongering again which

tends to happen in these recurring Cycles uh you know the media has their way with um you Know kind of only emphasizing the good or the bad that that he brings which there's a lot of noise there's a lot of uh you know there's a lot of headlines but it's also part of his strategy and tactics and if you remember 2017 the same thing was going on into 2017 how it was going to the most tumultuous presidential and then the stock market had like a maximum of like a couple percent dip all throughout the year

so I think there's a lot of things at play And people have a right you know our right to be a bit more you know just have a skeptical lens we we've kind of been talking about that for a while now the liquidity setup has not been great but is it the time to be getting you know Max grow scare bearish after we've had such you know kind of Fairly large Moves In yields and and everything I think there's there's going to be need to be some time for it to feed through if it does

and I think you until proven Otherwise you probably want to fade that because one the fiscal deficits are going to continue like they're going to cut things but they're also going to try and reduce taxes so those offset and um you know like it's overall still fairly healthy so um and the FED still has room to cut right we know know they think they're in a restrictive stance and we know that um QT is likely to end this year so there's still tools in the toolshed that are likely to be used to Bolster growth bolster

liquidity so I I I just be these macro things take a long time to play out and uh I I I maybe am seeing people in the uh investor Universe latch on to one of my core Tendencies which is most macro Tendencies which would be way too early you you feel like you can see for macro people is that we just we're too early and it takes longer and to your point I'll just quickly show this chart from Andrew Saron talk about what You mentioned which is that last time too we saw the Dixie rise

quite a bit um and then basically as he As Trump took office it was just basically a down move there so this has been my framework personally it's just like that we would see the top and the Dixie heels I've already been wrong and kind of thinking that we're at the top and then we keep topping higher so who knows CH what you think Tyler yeah I mean I this is where I am not Going to lie I said this next couple weeks or months period is really the cloudiest period so protect yourselves overall I

still think it's a bull market I haven't seen any companies report really dire earnings yet when that starts happening and you really see it flow through earnings I'll probably change my tune the biggest problem of the market is on The Sovereign and geopolitical side and that is what you know it's it's the global Margin Call on US denominated debt outside of the US that's really what's going on right now and I can go through a couple charts just to to go through it I mean hit me with slide 22 and this is just to get

give you a sense like a lot of countries they issue US denominated debt and as the dollar Rises it they have to pay back that debt in more expensive dollars so you know low-income countries use you know us Bond markets to essentially raise their Debt you can see here this is low-income countries external debt payments and as that goes up and then if you go to slide 23 this is the US dollar trade weighted dollar which is basically at all-time high so this is C causing like a giant Global liquidity crisis for collateral and dollars

and you know that's why we're seeing funky stuff happening in FX markets Um this is what's what's funny to me is it's it's largely a policy decision so if you go to the you next slide is the two tens curve they allowed the yield curve to essentially steepen for you know 2022 and 2023 Yellen was issuing paper on the front end of the yield curve in the duration problem on the longer end bonds was not an issue and now they're actually letting you know you could say It's the the debt cealing you could say it's

all these other things but the yield curve is steepening now which is causing kind of a constriction in in liquidity and you know the term premium is rising so so if you go to the next slide you can see this is from Mike how great great chart the black line is the net supply of duration so the amount of longer term bonds coming to Market and then as that rises the term premium Rises which is the orange line so like That's why we're seeing the steepening of the yield curve and then you know it what's

tricky to me if you go to SL 27 and this is all to say this is why the dollar has gotten way stronger we've talked about this this is the Asian dollar Index on three different time frames the first one you can see the RSI it is at 28 it's so oversold so it's like we're basically go going full on into like a US dollar crisis right now Um which can be solved because like corporates are doing fine you know generally speaking this is all geopolitics and Global policy so you know and I call them

vult controllers and the V controllers could stop this with swap lines they could stop this you know with saying they're easing but we're going to we're going to see what decision they make here which is really annoying because they might actually let let things you know roll off too just to Be fair but the Asian dollar currency is getting absolutely annihilated if you look at the Yen the Yuan the Korean Juan the dong um which is Quinn's favorite um these are all weakening to like such extremes like the next slide is the Yan Chinese Yan

if you go out this is basically you know they have to ease and is as they ease this is globally deflationary or disinflationary as the WAN goes higher To the dollar that means you know there's more youan to dollars that means the dollar goes stronger and when that happens you know Luke groman had a great podcast on this he's like there's 13 trillion in Emer or Emerging Market debt in the US as that dollar goes higher it causes them to have to sell you know the $68 trillion worth of equities to basically pay off that

debt so it creates this like you know Global sucking of liquidity they sell equities To sent and then they sell the debt and and every all the reserves kind of shrink and that's sort of the environment we're in which is which is basically because we don't have enough dollars floating around the system um now that could also be and then go to slide 30 this is just to give you a sense this is this is also we talk about this you know before the break but the Chinese two-year Yields basically China's in massive deflation and

they they're in a balance sheet recession and as these things we need China actually loosen up their monetary policy as well but that could cause the dollar to even Spike further so it's just it's kind of self-reinforcing global liquidity suck is what we're in right now even in the face of all that what's tricky for me and this is I'm getting to my last point and this is where I'm mind-bogglingly Like if you look at all these things happening geopolitically fx- wise you would expect high yield bonds in the US to be blowing out and

financing costs to be like outrageous but if you if you go to slide 31 this is the CDX on high yield I mean it's it's up a little bit from the lows but it's still really like it's still very good financing for for the the crap companies in the market so you know to to to Quinn's Point like gross Slowdown I don't see it on the corporate side like I think everyone's just going off of you know the interest rate Spike and fast forwarding and expecting everyone's Gonna Miss earnings but like corporates have financed themselves

okay like they're actually their balance sheets are way healthier this is the this is a sovereign problem which could flow through to you know if you get this Global liquidity Su you got to watch This chart specifically because you know if this spikes that means Sovereign investors are repatriating capital and and bringing it back home to pay off their debts Tyler I feel like the the point you made at the beginning about how it feels like we're in this weird gray danger zone for the next little bit here it feels like that a lot of

that is caused from the stalemate that you just described in terms of like Global fs and and Global yields right now where you Know China can't stimulate right now because the Dollar's too strong versus the the Dollar's too strong right now because there's a lot of you know potential talk right now from you know Trump tariff Poli Etc and what that could do um and it feels like none of this can be potentially resolved until at least the inauguration you know where you know there's a good chance that you know San ping and Trump come

to some Sort of currency agreement you know like that has been something that they've talked about at least on the Trump side that they want a lower dollar and they're willing to do currency devaluation China would love that it would allow them to stimulate and get out of this deflationary SP that they're in right now so it feels like there's a lot of these stalemates right now that are just hard to rectify for at least the short Term yeah and I think that's the main the main issue is like you look out two to three

months almost everyone's probably like yeah dollar is gonna be lower because like if it's not we're all in a [ __ ] storm you know like if it's not boomers are going to have a hard time paying their pensions like what what what's so crazy to me is like Boomer's Bond portfolio is get absolutely torched and my rule of thumb is the Boomer Ponzi scheme will find any Way to bail out the Boomers you know that that's just the the end result with diluted dollars so you look out you know three to six months the

dollar has to be lower because if it's not then like the system doesn't work is is sort of my my general sense the one thing that's been tricky is uh price setion in a lot of days the last few weeks have just has just screamed like like the end of Fiat um where the market you know risk Assets I would say people are getting very bearish now I mean stocks are off what like five percenti is four to five bitcoin's off like 10 to 13 or something off highs um so you know that it feels

like we're getting to a point at least locally where there's more more of the negatives getting priced in maybe it's not enough maybe we got to go lower but um you know a lot of these trades it's like you don't want to own bonds and and the other thing is you look at gold Which has been so sturdy despite this real rate rise I mean frankly Bitcoin and stocks have been sturdy too because it it's sort of like the market saying ah we see the dollar zooming up but it's kind of a sovereign problem it's

not a corporate or or earnings problem so and it's not a dollar liity problem yet yeah yeah it's like we know how this ends and I think there's some reasons to be to think we're we are reaching a local peak in uh in in yields like the FED still People are conflating the long bond with the front end right and and uh I think the FED still does have room to cut and they're GNA end QT and we know the yield curve curve has to steepen to a More normalized Level if you I have some

charts on um actually well while you find that I just want to quickly say on that point of like Global bond yields like to your point this has not been an like if you look at inflation swaps which is Something like Tyler brings up often in the show those have been flat as yields have been going higher and like a lot of these countries are in pretty like shitty economic growth situations right now so to see the bond yields surge like this despite that it tells you it's something else going on right now so it

tells you like you said it's it's it's the Sovereign you know long Bond issuance debt problem really it's it's less so the inflation situation check Check uh this is check slide 32 if you can this is I this is where it's 32 yeah there we go okay is this the guilt this is the guilt the tenure on the guilt and this is the worst combination you could possibly have this is the UK basically turning into a third world country so you have the 10year yield on the guilt is is shockingly going going up and then

if you go to the next one the pound is weakening it's it's like money is is getting the F out of the UK and where do You go like you go you probably go to gold and this is one of the world premier like Global centers for financial Capital markets and they've completely messed up everything there and that that in itself is really scary when you think about I mean we're seeing like the dollar milkshake theory in action right now yeah exactly and that's well what happens when you know if China China has this giant

you know tradeing balance they we buy their stuff they get Dollars they usually reinvest it in buying treasuries what if they stop doing that and just start buying gold instead it's like that's what I'm that's the end game here where maybe then we all turn into giant money printing machines and debt doesn't mean anything and you have to decide on a different you know Sovereign collateral that could be the world like things are changing that fast I don't think people are realizing it but like that could be The world where you have to decide as

a country am I gonna plug into the Allied system and buy you know us debt am I gonna plug in you know the Asian Financial system and use gold as as collateral like we're kind of getting there and otherwise but but I think with Trump at the helm you get this Global piece dividend you get some negotiating the dollar goes lower you know we get some disinflationary effects in the game goes on but like there's there's also an Alternate reality where things get really ugly and and get out of control so that's why I say

Watch the watch the credit spreads but right now Sovereign that are just really concerned uh Quinn what charts are we talking about there you wanted to um yeah side 38 and then 37 38 is the yield curve the the three Monon the 10 year minus three Month you can see how inverted it was um negatively which was which was historically very abnormal and that's why you saw small Banks and small businesses being hurt so bad is because the long end was being suppressed by the treasury and fed's you know coordination um yellen's front end issuance

and and they were that was allowing them to keep the the front end abnormally high and now we're seeing that reverse right where this is I would Call this like normalization of of interest rate policy where the back end should be higher and the front end should be lower which is why I kind of believe like at the end of the day there are more rate Cuts coming um whether they're necessarily good or bad you know if they're too too late you know and there's there's already the problems underway you know the the inertia of

the economy is is real um is remains to be Seen and and but there is liquidity to tools available the FED believes they're restrictive if you go to the slide before 37 we can see uh basically rate cut expectations for the fomc 75% chance of only one or less cut by end of June and uh 50% chance of one or less cut by year end which I just think is too low I mean even in a healthy economy uh policy is on the front end restrictive are you know the long end is becoming also restrictive

so I I think that that will Need to be continue to be balanced out but you know these things don't mean that a certain stock or a certain asset is a good buy or not it um you know there's other Dynamics at play but I do think there's you know I just caution getting like extremely bearish too early because I think there are levers to be pulled here yeah I think to the same vein not getting too bullish either like this is I I do want to emphasize like the reason I've been sort of short-term

Concern SL bearish whatever you want to call it has been because we're finally getting this this third you know mo like I trifect or whatever of tightening that's finally occurring so you know we've had the the hike of the FED funds at the short rate that's been going on for a while and that's done some slowing to different parts of the economy but this has been something like Andy conso has talked about a lot over the last couple years that we haven't seen that Final tightening push because the long end has just been basically too

low to do any sort of marginal tightening and so now it feels like okay we got the short rate high plus this tilt towards hawkishness since December um from the fomc at the same time that we're seeing long bond yields globally rise substantially at the same time that we're seeing the US dollar Surge and do its dollar wrecking ball thing those three together they're an expression Right now of what looks like almost like too much economic strength SL inflation but the weird thing is that I don't know six months down the road from now those

are actually going to be the contributors that actually lead to this marginal slowing you know not saying recession or anything um and you know it's whether that is slowdown is more than what's expected right now by some people or you know less than what's expected but the fact is that that's Occurring so when that occurs and we can get into this too I know is around just like positioning Dynamics and Equity valuations is when you have those factors start to be reflected against the tension of positioning that's where you start to get these these pockets

and risk um and so personally that's why you know I believe that we're seeing you know Bitcoin struggle here and we're seeing equities you know vola is increasing we haven't fully broken down Or anything but there's been there's been a lot of volatility um to the upside and then to the downside that looks like you know it's been compressing somewhat but the ball's about to expand we're going to get the resolution better for worse um that's how I think about it what do you guys think I've noticed every single morning when Europe opens crypto takes

an absolute Digger to me that's a sign that like something's Messed up in Europe too and and I think I think people are trying to just like get the hell out because the European I guess governance system right now is so anti- capital and I I think that's that that might be who's really keeping a cap on this stuff but you know you'd think with a strategic Bitcoin Reserve from the the US government on on the headlines the next couple months potentially there would be more of a premium baked in for Some scenario like that

and it it just seems just seems like there's there's odd uh forces at play here especially when you see the doj selling six billion uh on you know the day where the Market's closed I'm like come on yeah classic it's just a kicking the junk like and everyone's like this is always you know this is how they operate it's completely nonpolitical and like how do you how do you even remotely say that at this point it's like you can't you're Doing something that is complete antithesis of what's best for your citizens in having you know

a a if your if your government saying they might do a strategic Bitcoin reserve the incoming president has talked about it and you're going to you're going to sell that before like come on that's that's worse for your you don't care about your citizens I mean and the six it's funny six billion dollar is like I mean what That doesn't even register on the Pentagon like like any of these government agencies print that overnight but like at the same time it's here here's a here's an exercise what to you guys okay so we have the

two tenure at a positive 43 basis points the highest since the highest since February 22 all right um or March 22 February 22 and we have the 10e what what do we have the 10 year at at uh 47 the 30y year at 49 what Like what what need to happen for these to keep Rising if anything like because because I'm looking here and I mean we're talking about oh like you know these are the reasons I was cautious and bearish a few weeks ago yeah but now they're peeking out I mean like or maybe

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it just shows this is super helpful for contextualizing what we're talking about it's the 210 curve and then it's basically colorcoded by what stort of Like steepener SL flattener that's been occurring so you can see like you know in in the summer the green part so you know from August to late September that was all bull steepener so that was recession fears that was that was the twos that was the shorter end of the curve coming down relative to the long end we have the exact opposite situation right now so even though the curve is

steepening it's due to the bare steepener not a um so we've seen the Long end go higher compared to the short rates like the twos um so that's a some I look at this as a complete political setup but I mean you you should get into this about the minutes too from the fomc but you know it's quite interesting um but yeah so remind me about your question again Quinn on this um on the two 10s my my question is like as everyone is getting very you know bearish on Bonds hawkish on yields here What

do you what's your what are people's targets because my targets have kind of been hit in the in the near term on on the long long bond yields and um personally like you know I think we're starting to get the reaction you know from from people that they're too tight and so my inclination is like okay well that's going to start pressing on growth if they are too tight and kind of put a a meter on how high they actually would go so I'm I'm curious if people are very Very you know bullish dollar hawkish

yields here like what what is the continual continuation of that yeah so I mean I felt like two weeks ago was going to be the peak and I was I was wrong and and it feels like a lot of that is because of the amount of uncertainty right now between today and the inauguration so in in my opinion you look at like the 5% threshold for for the long end like tens or something when we've gone to that point it's things Have occurred that aren't not quite official but you look back and you're like okay

you know that was around the time when you know Janet Yellen was doing trips to China and these sort of ideas start to happen around these levels so we're getting you know the t is getting really close to that 5% threshold where stuff starts to happen and then you look at like turn premium on the 10year we've broken out of like the last Peak that was I don't know a Year ago or something like that where that was when equities are starting to get pressed by bond yield so we're around that level right now and

it feels like a lot of the reasoning for it is baked into this idea of again uncertainty around Trump policy and inauguration ETA so yeah I I don't see what would bring us much higher other than perhaps like just a panic SL lack of faith in Bon yels and just like a panic cell and That's where you know you might start to see potential for a temporary QE type operation like we saw in bank bank of England a couple years ago with like the guilt crisis where they came in for two weeks and did q

and then reversed it six months later whatever I think that's the potential but yeah it feels like to me this is this is it or very close to it so I don't know what bring us higher here's my thing is this REM me so much of the pre-election in 2016 Fearmongering like as if we didn't have four years and I hate to get on this like I I'm off the political train and train worked and I was right but I and I don't want to get back on it but it seems like the same exact

thing I mean we had four years of trump he oversaw disinflation we saw his tariff policy in action he renegotiated NAFTA he used the Tariff to get better trade deals and he used them as the carrot and stick approach and he never once you know Completely blanketed you know full industries that mattered to CPI and so I'm kind of sitting here and it's like we're on the doorstep of his inauguration right now everything's just talk and people are scared you know and and I I just feel the bearishness elevating and and granted the thing that

cautious you know gives me the most caution is the fact that they're hasn't been a big release on risk assets yet and and normally you you feel much more Comfortable stepping in after that release occurs so maybe that happens soon but um my point is just that like let's let's remember who's coming in his treasury best one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time in the macro world you know we have Moran we have I mean Kevin warsh who's who's you know a top pick for potential fed or whatever like these people

like their goal is not to like say oh you know Yellen left us a big [ __ ] show We're just gonna let it all rinse to the floor and you know their goal is to keep stability and I just think like these are the best brains in the world you want and what it is it's a managed control of policy shift and adjustment where the back end has to go higher the front end has to come down and it it really has to because of how much centralization and control the Vault controllers that Tyler

mentions have had to get out of it You' still need that so Like we talk a lot of you know about yelling and how much she's Juiced these markets and there definitely politics there and it's probably gonna like here's here's off for the other side the people who don't like the incoming Administration are going to say the same thing because they're going to say well bessent and Powell are working together to maneuver the the yield curve steeper while bringing front- end rates down while not causing a recession and Keeping risk assets elevated that's G to

be the the thing and it's going to be true because they have to otherwise they would oversee a crash and it's a p it's a Ponzi yeah so like I just I just can't I like I was I was pretty cautious pretty bearish I'm I'm I'm not like uh getting crazy uh bullish or anything there's not like this big Catalyst like I was pounding the table on in November but I I just think that um you know these things take way longer to play out And it does feel whether it's now maybe it's in a

week maybe it's in two weeks are are are seeing the hysteria levels rise I mean for example the long bond yield if you if you just think about it like this the implied volatility in the long bond has moved up TR dramatically uh like V TL vix TLT basically is is near near the highs um and that's usually a sign right of like Max uncertainty I got for that I don't know what's like I guess I'm like the if the Economy isn't blowing out inflation is still kind of like Meandering along I just don't know

what like is so so uncertain right now uh why that implied ball isn't going to come down like I feel very good Trump investment are not gonna like cause a covid style inflationary like burst with tariffs you you want to know my this is my my call for tomorrow morning this is the jobs number tomorrow morning this is just off positioning so just take it for what it Is but right now everyone is long the dollar everyone is short yields everyone is long vix the vix is almost inverted if you get a jobs number that

is worse than expected all those things are going to reverse which basically means fed expectations for easing goes up the dollar goes lower yields go lower and the market takes off higher that's the the POS that's where the positioning is most extreme and then here here's a Great this is a great chart on let's see what is this slide 26 this is to your point on TLT we you know Quinn said tlt's V spiked so you see this is the different look this is shar's outstanding of TLT which is kind of fascinating and so it

went all the way to new highs uh in was that November and then just had this massive draw down and then when you have the massive draw down shares outstanding starts going away Because people are selling right selling their TLT and then it based off of the 250 day it's RSI and this is probably a chart crime because we're looking at shares outstanding and not price but to to to your point like it's kind of based and if you look at the VA Dynamics the VA blew out on the low and now investors are not

positioned for that so like positioning short-term positioning standpoint you'd almost imagine that the Market would unwind those those things and then maybe you get some Trump commentary on a weak dollar Etc and then then things the narrative changes yeah I Tyler your your point about it being a CH crime I I I think it's so useful look at that even even throughout 2022 right shares out say yeah rising Rising rising Rising rising and never once dipping like that that despite yields straight vertical up like the last time RI the last time RSI was there Was

in you know was that January of 2022 and from there it went on a giant Ripper this this looks like capitulation of the long Bond incessant flow in because to your point throughout 2022 inflows kept hammering in because they're like oh you know return to zerp return to zerp and now finally we're seeing this reversal um this is a really great chart doesn't mean go straight down but yeah exactly it's like we're at a local fever pitch Where everyone was like screaming top bloody murder recession like four months ago it's like crypto Twitter like screaming

alltime highs three days ago and then we dropped 10% everyone said the Cycle's over it's it's just hilarious this e and flow we're getting these moves in like days that normally take weeks I really want to talk about this just from a social perspective too if and like this looks like this is the same chart as like xhb like if you look At homeb Builders or anything tied to housing if this goes lower housing is in it's like 30% of our economy just takes an absolute [ __ ] bad things happen yeah and here here's

here's a fascinating thing this is what I talk you you take take take the chart down let's this is existential let's go one to one one of my buddies like he's like five years younger than me and he's like dude I'm working my balls off I make you know 250 Grand a year and he and he's like I do Pretty damn well I can't in my right mind buy a house in in like a pretty like a nice suburb where interest rates are like that's Insanity he's like I'm paying if I at the where the

30-year mortgage is right now making 250 Grand I'm paying like it was like something like 12 Grand a month with 20% down on that house he's like the math doesn't math he's 35 just had his first kid and like that the math doesn't math for the Next Generation unless interest rates are lower that does that does that make sense like this is more just generationally you can you're making 250 Grand and you can't afford a house in a nice neighborhood like and maybe that's a an egregious thing to say but like it's if you do

the math for like a million dollar house at a at a mortgage a 30-year mortgage at 3% is way different than a million dollar house at a mortgage at you know 7 % well here's Here's just a less like it's a more objective data point not even you know pining on his affordability my condo to rent it the the cost I'm paying if I were to purchase it with a new mortgage you know just assume like 10 or 20 whatever 30% down and just the average mortgage rate plus HOA Plus Insurance plus tax my monthly

payment would be 2x what I pay for rent and I hope my landlord isn't listening to this but like that's clinically insane like how How could you even think about I mean why would you it's just like like you said the math does a math I wouldn't you wouldn't buy why you and then take on top okay in fire Insurance like think about California fire insurance going up costs cost of Labor there's not gonna be any insurance if you didn't have if you didn't get a mortgage when it was low it makes zero cents to

buy a house and then one of my buddies Kell grineer good good watches the show good buddy he's like You know this this is an asset that keeps up inflation but then you have costs you know your your costs your taxes go up every year on it anyway too so it's a it's a horrible store of value so well it's it's it's an extension of bonds yeah because you're pay you're tied to the local government you have to pay whatever they tax you just like inflation is taxing Bond holders you're getting ta it's it's hilarious

but the reason to buy it would be because your Dollars are worthless so you're like well [ __ ] it's got well I mean you know talking for Canada here where our entire economy is [ __ ] built up on this [ __ ] like it is it becomes part of the social contract of the government to support it and if if you fail that social contract like bad things happen to society birth rates creater like they are you know people don't partner up and Mary yeah you do you have to dilute the currency or

know one as kids yeah exactly the Bottom line there's no pass through of the assets the assets have to be sold to the Next Generation or they just create like this Haves and Have Nots like people that own assets and then just rent them to you because they locked in a [ __ ] interest rate really low like I mean I got insanely lucky buying my house when I had 3% interest rates and then I'm like and anyone who's buying in with interest rates up here is just a [ __ ] like I my house

shouldn't be like A sticker value of the house is just not what it is the price has to come down because the rates probably won't yes but like I I don't think the government would actually do that because what does that mean for pension what does that mean for pensioners or for the the commercial real estate market or all these [ __ ] that's why it's such a [ __ ] Ponzi it's so ridiculous that even though we know the dollar might come down and they'll be like we know in Three to five years that

dollar is going to be worth nothing and diluted and we're gonna print the hell out of it and like that's the end game no matter what but like I don't know I figured housing is great to talk about because it really is for your guys generation zist getting married they're having children they're they're doing the math and the math doesn't math you know I I think um I I have a good Catalyst for and and yeah I love how Ral Paul has been so early to This notion and and he's gotten taken a lot of

heat from traditional macro people but in reality I think I'm seeing more and more come around to the death of Fiat notion like it was a very taboo thing to to be saying literally buy Bitcoin because the dollar is worthless but like it's now you're now seeing like cuppies you know welcome to Africa or Zimbabwe project Zimbabwe memes every macro person is now coming on to it it's just not every macro person is changing Their investment style to to adjust right so I have a you know we we didn't really come up with a catalyst

for why bond yields should continue rising from here I think Panic fear and and just the fact that the yield curve should ultimately be steeper but I think we're at sort of a localish top here or so I have a catalyst why it might be relieved which is one the higher they go the the more downward pressure it puts on growth and therefore yes the lower like it puts A cap on them but the second is um there's still some left in the RP which is needs to get drained that that should be drained right

they should use that um bant should use it and two uh the budget you know there's been a lot of fear and anxiety about the debt ceiling and burden but what would actually be the most logical thing to do if you're bessent and Trump would be to drain the TGA to zero extend the debt ceiling and budget Negotiations as long as humanly possible to get whatever you want past and done meanwhile you're relieving you're you you've you're not issuing debt you're draining the TGA that by definition takes duration out of the market uh by by

there's no new issuance and you're taking it out of the the treasury bank account at the fed and that takes a very large seller out of of the market the issuer so I think that's what you do here um and you provide some liquidity Reprieve you see the next you know month or two of inflation and labor I I think the underpinnings of this recent labor market data has been uh not that strong like the the same small business weakening Trends are continuing and I think the fed you know maybe they don't cut March but

maybe they caught April maybe they start guiding towards like April August December or something you know and you get to a little bit more of a normal path that's you know it it they Shouldn't cut a 100 Bas basis points in three or four months like they did in the fall that was they should have started July 25 and then they would to need as many Cuts so you know we just tend to move towards these extremes of growth you know boom recession you and it's like just trying to like stay balanced and not too

bare hold and not too bull hold because you know it's a very choppy environment that's why I like the the two-year trade so much Because to your point the long bond yield is what's going to slow the economy but we don't know really how much higher it goes we we know fundamentally this is about as high as it should go but again things can get emotional but the fact is that whatever does there gets it'll pass the Baton to the two-year note which is basically at equal to Fed funds right now so it's saying unless

we started to talk about hikes you're you're side is pretty much Capped um you can lever that up on the two-year um and run with that and that is just basically your upside convexity on any further Cuts than what's priced right now um and that's sort of like neutral to any sort of Market bias yeah the the the Haw Tua trade the Haw Tua trade yeah the ETF Tyler is is Tua i i s this trade to a couple buddies like it it is being like my of my favorite plays right now just just longing

the two-year and every single Person I S it to just replies haha Hawk to like you're so original like it's just like that's that's our society everything's a meme everything's a m yeah um okay I want to ask you guys like everything we talked about it feels like it's coming around this point of tension and inflection of the inauguration so I want to hear do you guys see that you know originally I was thinking that we would run up you know Bitcoin for a while into the inauguration up only and It could be potentially like

a short-term sell the news it almost feels like a buy the news situation now do you guys agree with that yeah I I I'm like if if you just zoom out here and look at the biggest draw Downs that uh Bitcoin and and I'm kind of just talking about Bitcoin because I mean even alts have corrected alts have corrected massively like I stopped looking at alt charts like three weeks ago when I turned cautious and I Just pulled them up ran through them today as was like oh wow some of these are actually looking interesting

um you know when I was I was told I'm an idiot for not being balls long every single altcoin and now they're all minus 40 um but I think I think yeah bitcoin's Max draw down last year was 27% I think from Peak to trough and that took six months with many many bounces in between and it took a recession scare and a uh no fed Liquidity at all so I'm kind of like we're down like 10 to 14% from alltime highs like I really don't think like the world's falling apart like this quickly I

think there's a very capable uh you know Treasury and team coming in and like at the end of the day there's sort of a trump put like in a sense like there's if you know it seemed like over the last few weeks every time Bitcoin dipped like a trump family member was out and about talking about it And if you're just like Game Theory I know everybody's talking about the Strategic Bitcoin res Reserve which I'm personally sort of a fader of like in terms of its impact on the market like cool narrative sweet awesome but

like are they goingon to just start gobbling up Bitcoin probably not but if we're having this conversation and you know there's no way we're the only people in the world seeing the endgame here for for financial markets which is Fiat the Death of Fiat if you're a central bank like you're China you're Japan you're trying to protect your currency right now what are you doing you're selling your treasuries you're selling your dollars you're selling your other assets and and you have to buy something that's going to hold value and you know traditionally that's gold and

oil but I really think like you know there's there's going to be more sovereigns that do adopt this and and to me that's just Like like I yeah just not a reason to get super bearish at range lows um going into what I think could be a big catalst it hasn't broken from the breakout Point like 90k would really be something where You' you'd be concerned something's changed in the market like is there disinflation you know deflation impulses but yeah I don't I mean this has just been in a channel the whole time um exactly

two months it's it's tough to Get yeah over one one guy I wanted to mention before we go is David zervos has been pretty spoton and consistent about the market for the past like 10 years really and he's he understands the inard of the FED he worked there he's jeffy's Chief Market strategist and his new theme is basically buy risk parody which is stocks and bonds will both rise here SPO and blues he calls it and uh I I think he might have even said like it's going to be just a great year for Equities

uh in general but but you know what he he also said is he's using the acronym lfg um less funding for the government I believe and basically saying that that should keep you know the government if you look at the past 10 years has crowded out the private Market in a lot of Senses with the amount of treasuries they've they've issued and the funding you know they've crowded out from the private Bond markets and if you do cut Spending in some of these egregious things like I saw you know the the head of water and

park uh in La was making $750,000 a year you know and which is just insane there's just egregious spending everywhere you look Tu Tucker Carlson had this great line too he was like um you know I looked around in my neighborhood in Washington DC and and I realized there beautiful multi-million dollar houses and nobody in the Neighborhood actually produced anything they didn't produce anything and so you think about it like for a generation we've really been pillaged by the public sector and and not like you know I'm not I I'm a Believer in the public

sector like I I think there needs to be I'm not like a this hardcore right winger by any means but I do think there's egregious things that have been spent on that if you annihilate that maybe treasury yields comes smashing back down is is Sort of what I'm saying it's like you know some of the pork that's in these bills is just gotten so insane we're handing money over to Ukraine at like I mean insane amounts and it's I don't know the whole the whole thing yeah that's an interesting idea because I've been a pretty

big fader of the Doge thing in terms of like the actual dollar value of deficit they can decrease but that is a bit more interesting around what would that occur in terms of Psychological impact and like potential impact on yields too it's like you know okay like you know Elon said today like two trillion is not going to happen and it just takes 10 seconds to look at like what congressionally mandated um in terms of spending in Congress and treasury but just the fact that they're going and doing this could have a larger impact on

things like bond yields that's a really interesting idea could you imagine if you're if you have an Investigative reporter that's like hi you make $750,000 as a Public Employee what do you do on a daily basis or or like you know what do you you if you had people that just went out and like thr a light on it because largely the the the centralized media has has actually been an accomplice to like this whole thing and now you have decentralized media I'm sure there's GNA be start this pendulum is going to swing and you're

gonna have The spotlight on you if you're doing nefarious stuff well let me just walk through the mechanics here for people for listeners on why this could this is good I hear people saying oh well it's bearish if Doge occurs and the deficits fall uh and and it's bearish for risk assets no that's actually unbelievable it's the same way you invest in a company when they cut useless costs and their earnings rise because what happens is all the billions of dollars to Ukraine all the billions of dollars to wars in the Middle East those are

the deficits are only bullish when they're being financed and printed money to to support right if if we spend a trillion dollars of excess and have to finance that into the open market and splash that on the market and you have to find all these duration buyers who otherwise would would be investing in other productive assets that's bearish but then that's not happening because the RP And the FED is monetizing the debt and printing dollars out of one pocket to fund the other pocket but if what happens if Okay so we've been sending tens of

billions of dollars to the Middle East and Ukraine Russia we're literally print we're we're we're not that's not printing dollars that's spending dollars that need to be financed to create more geopolitical uh you know risk in the market there's it's a twofold bad for the market we're Literally increasing the price of oil by the Geo by prolonging the geopolitical conflict we're creating uncertainty and volatility in the market by funding these wars and it's coming out of our pocket like that Meme of like somehow our tax dollars somehow also our tax dollars of the Iranian and

israelian missiles that's real and so if you remove all the spending or the the person who sits in in their house and gets paid 500k to work from home and Oversee like random useless things uh that's just money back and then those people have to go get real jobs be real productive citizens not leeches on the system they're actually building things that the economy needs and the government is spending less and everybody's better off so like there are really bullish outcomes it's a matter of like how Co co-opted by the the swamp do these people

get like can Elon actually get it done I agree I I think like to a Certain extent I don't want to completely knock government spending there's a lot of great things that have come out it's just you need to have that government spending go to productive means I think it just got this last like 10 years have just gotten so egregious with like you know if you look at the money supply just up and to the right where they started hitting money out for anything and it's got to go back to like this chat GPT

moment to basically like How do you take a bill that's like you know whatever gazillion pages and distill it so that you know what's in it like people don't even know what it's so like I think that's massively productivity enhancing in itself and maybe we Our Generations get back to the point where it's like let's do things that are productive instead of just like spraying and praying yeah the one Nuance I want to add um and push back on a little bit is just around the the Deficit in whether it's stimulative or like money printing

or not I think to your point you hinted out there is it depends on how that duration is getting issued like if it's bills like it's been I would say it's outright Printing and stimulative um but if it's you know longer duration in terms of how that gets financed I think you're correct that it could be a good thing so if we're assuming that we're moving back from this heavy dominance of bills Towards coupons then I think your point is correct yeah it's interesting man like the the the amount of at a time where you

know it feels like may maybe it's not always maybe it's always been this case where things are this centrally controlled and this manipulated but it it's maybe it's yeah but but it's definitely a first in terms of the universal access to information public knowledge social Media and understanding of these topics and and that's what's is pretty interesting because you're seeing it's it's the decentralization of everything the best ideas are now not at Big Bank research they're in Twitter threads and substacks and seeking Alphas like this just you're seeing it everywhere um and it's just super

fascinating to see how it's going to play out because in back in the day you know you probably had JP Morgan and and the bankers controlling The world in a in a room of four people making decisions now it's it's kind of out in the open and like you know we're just going to increase transparency which overall is good the truth sets you free yeah you you just got you gotta get the ability to go viral the hard you know on the left you could say like oh yeah but then you got like Elon Musk

and all this the larg he's got trumps here there is some concern with that which I totally get too to be Fair but well guys let's leave it at that um good to Hash things out um this was overdue this it's going to be a fun year um sure maybe this will be maybe this will be the year that uh crypto natives stop basing every assumption of the market they have on one 2021 cycle that came with very insane Mac abnormal macro conditions and we can finally kill the fouryear cycle notion and just accept that

no asset in the World trades on pre-ordained fouryear Cycles uh you Know gold every all every all calling doesn't all go up in unison there's such thing as dispersion so yes we can rant about we we missed out we were going to talk about that about just talking [ __ ] about the fouryear cycle we'll do it next week but uh I agree awesome boys good chat fun to be back yeah looking for a blockchain that combines high performance with zero headaches scale is your answer with its Advanced parallel processing and modular sharding scale delivers

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