[Music] this is macro voices the free weekly Financial podcast targeting professional Finance High net worth individuals family offices and other sophisticated investors macro voices is all about the brightest Minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is bullish or bearish No Holds Barred now here are your hosts Townsen and Patrick cesna now let's get to that chart deck listeners you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research Roundup email if you don't have a research Roundup email it means you have not yet registered at macro voices. com just go to our homepage macro. com and click on the red button over Harley's picture saying looking for the downloads Eric let's cover crude oil starting with the eia inventory eia printed a build of 5.
8 million barrels great big build but the draw Downs on finished products more than made up for it with gasoline drawing down 6. 3 million barrels and distill it's drawing down another 3. 1 million barrels for a nit petroleum draw down of 3.
6 million barrels Cushing Oklahoma building 1. 2 million barrels the $6 correction of the last two days is exactly why I'm not chasing this Market there's no way that I want to be short this Market I think the geopolitical risks are extremely high to the upside but I don't dare go long in size because I think we need a better setup and there's plenty of possibility to take a huge loss in that trade if we go the other direction down before we go up in Energy prices well Eric we got a short squeeze on the upside and obviously it's now mean reverting but I think it is actually a trend shifter I'm generally biased to the upside and I wouldn't be shocked if there was another squeeze to the upside toward $80 I think it's purely liquidity driven and I wouldn't want anchored off of fundamentals which is essentially expect a lot of volatility as a lot of Traders are offsite on this just going to whip the market in both directions generally I think though that we could easily see oil back up into the 80 handle at least for a short period of time now Eric let's talk equities we're recording this before uh we see the CPI and PPI numbers uh but the market has broken slightly higher what are you thinking Patrick I'm not surprised to see the Melt up continuing here and you know call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but I think it's as simple as they're pumping the markets into the election plenty of good reasons to think about hedging here but again I I think these markets are uh likely to continue to melt up into the coming election now don't forget a lot can happen in these last few weeks before the election another attempt on President Trump's life is entirely possible I would say it's probably more likely than not and uh needless to say that could introduce more uncertainty and uh who knows which way this thing could go but I think barring major news events the most likely outcome here is that the market continues to melt up into the election Eric while the Melt up does continue there are a number of Target zones up above around 5900 that are on a way of being completed I think that even if the market does must s up a reaction to the upside first I think that a correction at some point is underway that doesn't mean it has to be a drastic one or a deep one but we are getting into earning season and there could be a number of variables that just allow the market to go through some degree of a consolidation let's say move on to the dollar which continues to bounce what are your thoughts just as I predicted last week a counter Trend rally is on to the upside in the dollar this week's close above 102 on the Dixie is a sign that it probably has farther to go with the next obvious resistance level just above 103 right around 103 spot 20 or so yeah Eric I'm try to keep it really simple on the dollar it was so oversold a bounce back to 103 where the FIB zone is and a bounce on the US dollar Yen back to 150 was a very typical retracement or reaction from a very oversold dollar but I I think that a lot is going to now hinge on the outcome of the elections and uh I think that the dollar is probably going to settle in and the next major moveing the dollar off of these levels is probably going to uh have the Tailwind of an outcome of the elections all right Eric let's talk gold Patrick I'm absolutely delighted by the pause in the gold rally we were looking uh two weeks ago at an extreme overbought situation we've moved from extreme overbought to just moderately oversold the slow stochastics are still pointing down so the uh correction is probably not over quite yet but we're nearing the end of it and we haven't lost that much ground on price that means that the uh stage is set once we do bottom out here on this correction to move to new High maybe getting above 2,800 by election time now of course as I mentioned earlier a lot can happen in these last few weeks between now and the election and uh needless to say there's plenty of room to go in either direction but barring unforeseen circumstances I do not think that this rally is over by any stretch I think we're in a short-term consolidation to just work off that overbought condition so we can have one last big rally into the election at least that's my base case well this retre in gold is now coming back to the moving averages the 2600 area was a area that I thought had every opportunity to be tested uh there's no reason not to assume that it's a buy on dip area and so as this pullback is coming in here we're tactically looking at putting on you long trades for a retest of the highs all right Eric let's touch on uranium spot uranium prices finally seem to have bottomed and the price discount in spot has vanished so it feels like the market is now maybe just having a little bit of a pullback from that first round of exuberance and uh excitement that the bottom is finally in and that means that we may be close to filling in some of those gaps that were left in the charts below the current price level my resting limit orders await those gaps in just in case they happen to get filled in coming days which I think there's a good chance that they will so I'm reasonably confident that the bottom is in for Uranium miners now of course you can't promise anything in this business anything's possible with news events and a broad Equity Market sell-off would certainly do the trick in terms of uh taking the wind out of the sales of this uranium Market but I think there's a good chance to fill those gaps before we move much higher in price and I'm going to be using that opportunity to add even more to my already overweight uranium Longs well Eric it's nice to see uranium come back to life after spending virtually the entire year in a deep consolidation the bigger question here is can we see the Bulls keep building on this uh recent momentum shift uh will we see accumulation on dips and all the other types of patterns to suggest that we might have another big upside going into 2025 at this stage this correction has been so long and so deep that there's no reason not to suspect that there's a new bull market potentially starting here folks if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of big picture trading the details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigp pictur trading. com that concludes this edition of macro voices be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest Minds in finance and macroeconomics macro voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigp pictur trading.
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