welcome to lesson 3B which is on the nuclear nonproliferation treaty the MPT and the prohibition band treaty and we're getting more into issues to do with Ukraine to do with arms control to do with our guest speaker and then that equips us to understand our guest speaker and hopefully equips you as a global citizen I put a picture of myself there because there's no room for the video uh often I like to put more pictures in it's more useful for us to have pictures so uh what do I want to say here um in the
last lecture I I I mentioned that I can't test you on opinion whether we should have a a a fortress America whether a space force is a good idea or not I can test you on whether people think that's a good idea I can test you on facts and dates so a lot of students keep a separate list of dates as I'm lecturing and they just memorize them um if you want to serve Canada abroad or you want to be a global citizen or a student traveler you do need to think about issues to do
with nuclear weapons and the bound treaty the Bay of Pigs uh Fiasco uh was was uh featured by a decision by John F Kennedy pictured here I do often put in pictures of famous diplomats and ask you to identify them so I don't just I ask you about the pictures as well he set up an XCOM uh which All Bright space does not like it will frequently change the word XCOM here to X it does just doesn't like it it will automatically change it to something else it doesn't understand oh bright space anyway he wanted
it to guide his decision-making during the Cuban Missile Crisis the Cuban Missile Crisis happened 60 years ago more than 60 years ago and since then we've had a number of other crises let me talk about former US President Joseph Biden during his uh Reign he ignored the wise and Sage advice of military personnel and Military brass on the crisis in Afghanistan and he actually ignored the advice of his defense secretary so we are talking to the assistant Secretary of Defense guy Roberts and um Biden also ignored lyd Austin's advice and then pull the troops out
of a of Afghanistan by August 30th 2021 that was contrary to the advice of many diplomats who argued that the United States should undertake a conditions-based negotiations withdraw when it was a good time in Afghanistan rather than when it was a time decision time-based decision for the United States the US wanted to withdraw due to the cost and the numbers of of dead and and uh named people the US Secretary of State then uh Anthony blinkin appeared bullish another word for hawkish on Russia and Ukraine for example he spoke firmly against Russian signals that they
would invade at the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Ria I'll show you where R is in a minute uh on December 1st before the actual February 24th 22nd 2022 Invasion so recall that Kennedy himself ordered or encouraged behind the scenes the excom adviser General Maxwell Taylor I said recall but um you haven't learned that yet but he asked him to declare bellicose threats in favor of conducting a nuclear strike in order to see what the XCOM would argue meanwhile behind the scenes Kennedy's own brother Robert Kennedy pictured here or sometimes called Bobby Kennedy he was
also assassinated later uh so both Kennedy brothers were assassinated they counseled enormous restraint not to preemptively strike Russia not to undertake a first strike against Russia during the entire crisis so 60 years later the Cuban Missile Crisis is over and you heard me and Guy Roberts refer to the nuclear taboo which is the idea of a normative meaning a a learned inhibition against the first use of nuclear weapons the idea that most states do not want to go down in history as having used nuclear weapons first the United States so far is the only first
country in history to use them first in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and so that we saw the results of it you didn't but we've seen it um in many pictures and so on and those new findings suggest the view that even a medium scale nuclear war would bring about a global nuclear winter and you heard guy Roberts refer to that too the US decision to deploy intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe so you heard guy talk about intermediate uh intermediate uh nuclear weapons some people call those tactical nuclear weapons uh and so the the the vocabulary
is not well defined what's tactical what's strategic and so on what we do know is that Russian President Vladimir Putin say that these are a great danger and threat to us and he has claimed that the arms race between Russia and the United States was intensifying now the uh Russians uh talk about Washington's withdrawal from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty and the American withdrawal first from the 1987 open Skies treaty the ABM Treaty which dates back to 1972 was put in place after the Cuban Missile Crisis uh in 1972 so the Cuban Missile Crisis in
1962 and then the ABM Treaty the United States withdrew from both first uh the United States was non-com CL client non compliant um before Russia so guy Roberts was incorrect but during the dis you you saw me um be ambiguous you never correct people publicly on tap no actually never correct people Russia finalized its withdrawal from the 1992 open Skies treaty on December 18th 2021 the United States withdrew from it first President Putin often complained about activity near Russia's borders and he claimed that Russian forces could closely observe these different um Navy command ships so
they were worried about a possible attack by NATO uh and the exercises by NATO with different uh warships concern them I bring that up uh now because we will talk in the future about the Black Sea moving on on Russia's troop buildup near Ukraine NATO's Secret AR Jen which uh guy Roberts will say SE gen uh stoltenberg stressed before The Invasion that there will be a high price to pay these are the deterrent threats that they put in place before the Russian aggression and obviously that failed and they they uh Ukraine is still not one
of um the NATO allies they extended out invitations for it to be a partner but uh uh Ukraine and Georgia are Partners but they are not allies at the time Sweden and Finland had not joined after the Russian invasion Sweden and Finland joined NATO so now there are 32 members of NATO 32 I'm moving quickly covering a lot of time a lot of things here's Ria uh laia uh and here's here's Lavia and there's Ria and they wanted to consider how they would deal with Russia's troop buildup near Ukraine and they discussed how to deter
but obviously they didn't they weren't able to deter they were very aware that in 2014 Russia annexed invaded occupied and annexed the Crimean peninsula here which was part of and is still part of Ukraine but it is now annexed by uh Russia and so the president of Ukraine uh who we nobody knows who he was back then but now we all know who he is and the prime minister of Georgia visited NATO headquarters during the covid pandemic at that time uh Canada decided to send more armed forces the Canadian Armed Forces to op what's called
operation reassurance in Central and Eastern Europe in order to detour to Signal Canada's willingness to be part of a collaborative Collective defense by NATO after the meeting in R blinken and Biden told the world press that the United States would respond to a possible Invasion with a range of high impact economic sanctions and we're going to have a special guest speaker who help put in place those sanctions so that's going to be a very exciting um a Foreign Service Officer from the government of Canada has agreed to talk to us about this and that should
be quite interesting and that is also part of the strengthening of Alliance defenses on NATO's Eastern flank okay President Biden and President Putin held a video call uh here you can see uh it from president uh Putin's perspective to quell the crisis I under NATO Arrangements at that time shrouded in secrecy guy Roberts does refer obliquely to the tactical nuclear weapons that are owned by and controlled by the United States their American nuclear weapons and they're in five NATO Allied countries there's approximately 150 of them we we don't really know for sure how many there
are and these are dual capable um on Dual capable aircraft meaning they could deliver conventional or nuclear weapons and that's another [Music] issue so under the NATO Arrangements which are still shrouded in secrecy there's five states Belgium Germany Italy the Netherlands and turkey that host up to we don't know 150 nuclear weapons and they may have been moved out of the United Kingdom maybe they're in Scotland we're not sure they're here in Turkey which some people think is risky because if Turkey was taken over uh these are in a small village in surck uh and
then there's some in in Italy and Germany and the Netherlands in May 2023 Russia began deploying Tactical nuclear weapons in Bellas so Bellas is a military dictatorship that is situated north of Ukraine and east of kenrad which is the Russia's Baltic Sea Enclave here on the Baltic Sea during the 1990s Bellas along with Kazakhstan not pictured here and Ukraine surrendered their nuclear arsenals to Russia in exchange for security assurances so you heard uh guy Robert let talk about security insurances they they allowed the um Russians to pull back their own nuclear weapons back into Russia
in exchange for security insurances from Russia the United States and the United Kingdom that's why you'll hear many people are very critical uh that uh the United States did not defend uh Ukraine in the wake of the invasion belus is a military ally and that is where the Russians are deploying troops it's a staging ground for Russian forces uh and it continues to be so um during their Northern Invasion they're coming from the north into Ukraine in early 2022 so where is kenrad in this giant picture uh it's interesting the maps are always red of
Russia and so this is their Russian Enclave kenrad where they are also deploying uh tactical nuclear weapons the secret agreement back in 196 2 uh was and the real outcome was that the United States agreed to withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons which were called Jupiter missiles from Turkey so the United States pulled them out of turkey in exchange for Russian withdrawal of its tactical nuclear weapons from Cuba that was the exchange behind the scenes in Secret Letters between uh kushev the Russian uh president and uh President Kennedy now with tensions at their worst since 198
9 1990 when the Cold War ended 30 years ago three decades ago we see that the Russians are threatening and they have have threatened to deploy nuclear missiles as well the Russian incident on the Black Sea uh in June 2021 led to more uh tensions the Russians have been complained for a long time about NATO exercises on the Black Sea which they consider to be threatening the drills the thousands of troops dozens of ships and um they do need to have more transparency more new thinking about the Black Sea um at NATO headquarters here's Yen
stoltenberg he was one of NATO's longest serving leaders since 2014 since uh and he his term was extended by two years and then two years during the crisis and he remained focused on Military Readiness increasing defense spending investing in major equipment new technology cyber warfare outer space the new Secretary General is Mark Ruta who is the outgoing prime minister of the Netherlands so he's the former Dutch prime minister in Washington both the Republican and the Democratic parties acted in a bipartisan fa fashion and you hear guy Roberts speak about that at length in terms of
the amounts of spending that are being put forward by both part parties in agreement the 200 2022 spending was 768 now it's actually 842 billion and you hear guy talk about that that's as he puts it a you know an unfathomable amount of money to be spent per year so how much is it approximately well he says around 850 but they agreed on 842 billion I would add that the United States then is the most powerful military country on Earth uh despite its own decaying infrastructure its lack of free medical care and the onslaught of
a pandemic that surpassed 1 million total deaths far more than in Canada proportionately taken together the consequences of military escalation over Ukraine are very serious for humankind and for all Earth species because of the nature of war and technology in this Century military satellites in spaces vulnerable atmosph feric Zone combined with complete Reliance on Military communication by computer mean that the former cold Wars bipolar system between the United States and Russia is now multi-polar and therefore more less controllable quickly uncontrollable Decisions by Third parties unlike during the Cuban Missile Crisis here you see Kev and
Kennedy meeting together um we don't see that we we the problem is that Decisions by Third parties like China and the United Kingdom's decision to increase its nuclear warhead stock Ball P caps can defy logic you heard guy Roberts start to talk about Game Theory uh and the need for um understanding the the the Chinese buildup I can't recall if during the taping he talked about the Chinese buildup but he um here to four has always been very concerned about Chinese missiles and their buildup back then in Game Theory traditional Game Theory uh I have
not taught that to you and I will not be teaching Game Theory to this class but if you took my other classes we talk about Game Theory and we talk about new ways to amarate the tensions so things like letters um but that that's all been jettison now in favor of digital communication so we're in a new age as you know and now I mean you heard guy Robert talk about threats to annihilate he kept I couldn't he kept talking about uh how we've issued we the United States have issued threats uh to North Korea
and so on so now threats to annihilate are hurled in seconds using Twitter and they're not really as newsworthy because they're distributed so widely people are are kind of deja vu they're they're used to it uh former US Secretary of Defense assistant Secretary of Defense Roberts hinted that they are in news releases phone calls and in explicit threats delivered by diplomats including with press uh to by to the Press so that was quite fascinating uh very interesting part of our taping just need to move on we're at 17 minutes and I need to be done
in 20 minutes uh here's uh Fidel Castro he was the president of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis and during the Bay of Pigs and he schemed for weeks that us intelligence he was worried would notice the movement nowadays to move even 10,000 soldiers is very visible we know that there's North Korean soldiers along the uh Ukraine uh front deployed by Russia back then you could secretly do this and the United States couldn't see from space but now it's impossible uh they can see a license plate from space so that does mean that it's possible
um that the International Community can act quickly and instead of engaging in weeks of speculation the International Community can quarantine using for example travel bands within hours over all sorts of things including before we quarantined important countries because of the Ebola virus uh we have quarantined because of China and Russia over fears of the Corona virus and so on we're going to talk about sanctions uh with uh ad deian plov who is a diplomat who helped put those sanctions in place and we're going to talk about that but let's just focus for a moment on
this date 2007 the Russians Landmark Cyber attack on Estonia another NATO Ally so they attacked the government and the banking structure so far they have not attacked the NATO allies uh infrastructure they've just focused on Ukraine which brings me to North Korea and Guy Roberts went there but then he went into South Korea being a threat uh which was a new threat and surprised me uh normally he would refer to North Korea's attempts to count uh conduct hacking cyber warfare against big companies like Google and Sony and then he would be worried about Afghanistan but
you heard not a word about Afghanistan from him during the entire taping and uh basically the concern is that emerging cyber warfare capabilities will rapidly complicate the Ukraine military crisis so let's leave that and and I've got right to 20 minutes here and there's some pictures of the North Korean cyber Warrior soldiers beinging trained in China in a secret location in China and some pictures of the Taliban which took over Afghanistan and are in charge and are the unrecognized government
