"Bitcoin Will Rocket Straight Past $100K to..."

[Music] so you all know I've been calling for a little bit of a correction unless Bitcoin can go over this trend line but yesterday I spoke to my friend R Paul and he said to me no buddy we're not getting any corrections until we get to $110 or $120,000 he also said some other crazy things well for one he made me look at the the Doge BTC chart so this is the Doge BTC chart over here and what he showed me is that if you go onto the one month view so you zoom out you'll

realize that Doge has actually outperform Bitcoin by about 1, 1600% just have a look at that so doge is the one token that has actually outperformed Bitcoin by about 1,6% it was one of the most fascinating fascinating fascinating conversations it was completely filled with Alpha and it's something that I just thought I Should share with you on this banter Friday so without any further Ado let's get into the alpha of the day we've got real P here today let's do this guys you know sometimes you just have those conversations with friends of yours and they

absolutely just change your perspective and absolutely just change your mind and for us that's like important because we live in this ecosystem all day we live in this bubble all day and sometimes you just need to Speak to someone who can do this and just zoom out and that's exactly what R Paul did so I'm not going to delay the conversation much further I just do want to remind you that we are heading towards Black Friday and the Black Friday specials that you get or the specials that you get during the Black Friday period are

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he beli he said it's trust wallet for their seventh birthday can it be a scam I said definitely a scam don't open it [ __ ] First time in my life being scamed I was like please tell me you didn't click anyway it turns out he did click he did he said it looked too much like binance and he basically gave away all the money and he basically had to he was forced to leave crypto now imagine being forced to leave crypto in a bull market that's absolutely crazy the only way to protect yourself is

get yourself a VPN if you get a VPN number one you mask your IP address but also Nord specifically has a Couple of other features which I have to show you the first thing is n have this thing called threat protect and threat protect protects you against these malicious websites and so now I think on Black Friday when you're getting 70% off go and get nordvpn and go and get threat protect there's a link below just do it and I'm going to remind you while we here last day today to sign up for Front Runners

on the Black Friday special when you sign up for Front Runners you also Get into the AP Asylum which is our which our which is our meme coin thing that's absolutely free and if you want 10% of your trading fees on bybit blof if you're trading without kyc today is the last day at midnight t night uh La time that's the end of the special so go down below and check out the Black Friday specials cuz they ain't ever happening again all right let's go so let's get into the alpha of the day remember if

you're not already Subscribed uh subscribe to the channel we are 1.15 1.1 6 million subscribers um also if you are here and you enjoy the alpha just smash the like button it does help us get distribution you know uh something very interesting um I was I was listening to Diary of a CEO because Ro Paul was recently on Diary of AO and you know that diary overo only has uh about 70% of people that watch his his stream are not actually subscribed to his channel whereas 78% of people that Watch bant are actually subscribed it

just shows you how loyal this community is and as I said yesterday I'm very thankful for you guys all right let's get into the alpha of the day and I mean I had a chat to Josh here earlier and I took Josh a bet and I said to him I don't think I think that bitcoin's going to go down before it actually goes up and I wonder what R Paul thinks of that bit so let's get R onto the stream well it's so good to see you my friend uh Before we start I took a

bet with Josh I told him that I think the flash Art's coming before we break $100,000 do you think we're at the part of the cycle where we like due for that first flashart I'm I'm going to show you the chart because this chart somebody stolen off me they're putting it around on Twitter and they've changed the um they've changed the time Horizon let me see if I can find the chart so this is the chart that people are using okay Let's get Let's Get Your Chart I want try get there we go there we

go yes Global man M2 yeah that's the one that's going around Twitter right now but the person who put it up copied our chart but he used I think an 12 an eight week or 10 eight-week lead we think the best fit is the 12we lead now who knows who's right in this right you know this is where're fitting patterns and hoping it works but generally speaking for me this is a rerun of 2017 it's very similar and That Peak out end of deck fell 35% in Jan um for you know like three weeks and

then rallied so your hypothesis I think is right I actually think it probably gets to the kind of 110 120 first but you know it's it's pretty 5050 which chart works but really what it's saying is liquidity because of the dollar going up ahead of the election because of rates going up ahead of the election in the fears about Trump and fears about um um tariffs and stuff like that that What was causing that issue and that does lead crypto prices so when you say uh fears of trump and and and interest rates going up

maybe just elaborate on on how that Global money supply works and why the global money supply started Contracting cuz we saw that everyone was talking about the global money supply increasing and now you could see in the chart that you just show that the global money supply is actually Contracting yeah it's really simple it's priced in Dollars and the dollar went up so dollar dollar gets stronger dollar gets strong that goes down so a strong dollar as we know is a rocket wrecking ball because it's tightening Financial conditions um sorry yes it's tightening Financial conditions

so that correction was the strength of the dollar so money supply is increasing but it was being offset even more so by that recent spike in the dollar which I think is reversing now um you know I think Scott bessent being put Into the treasury is likely to believe in a week of dollar likely to believe in low rates so you think that the dollar probably topped just just after the elections because of Trump's talks of tariffs and and making America stronger and everything else but tell tell us why you think that Scott coming into

the the the treasury um would probably first yeah firstly 2016 Trump exactly the same happened the dollar went up and rates Went up January they all reversed and they continued down all of that period so yeah so we need to go back to 2016 that's over here so there you go right so what happened is 2016 we had that Spike uh then it came back down for the the rest of 16 and then eventually spiked uh later from 18 onward so you know that was perfect very similar kind of setup not identical looking but same

idea Scott Besson somebody I've known For 20 years um you know um he was a macro hedge fun guy he's been to my house in Spain that kind of stuff you know I've known him for a long time Scott gets the picture and if he wants to stimulate growth which is what he said he said you know the most important thing to try and pay this debt cycle off is to increase growth and then he talked about a weaker dollar and he's talked about lower rates and he's talked about lower oil all of those things

say he Wants um looser Financial conditions so if that's the case that's good for us and our bags essentially in Translation so I mean maybe let's dig into that a little bit so how do you see the Trump Administration actually playing out Trump get gets inaugurated on on the 5ifth of Jan how do you see it I mean you know on the one hand he's talking about a stronger dollar he's talking about bringing manufacturing onshore he's talking about tariffs against other Countries on the other hand uh they talking about a lot of spend they're also

talking about cutting government spending how do you see the first couple of months or the first year playing out what are the what do you see as the policies that are going to be put into place is it going to be much more loosening how do they tackle the FED first part is they need to get growth up right that's thing number one because they can't tighten um fiscal policy by Reducing the deficits and stuff until they got growth going because that will slow it down otherwise so they need to get rates lower now obviously

the Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent but they're going to try and force something to get liquidity and growth up if you think of the ism survey which is the business cycle still below 50 which says the economy is not really growing very strongly um the services sector is growing a bit better the Manufacturing is not growing at all so they're going to have to Goose that for a bit a weaker dollar lower rates uh injecting some liquidity into the system then it's going to take time to negotiate tariffs and and what the outcomes

are you know the Europeans are already going well you know maybe we'll play ball with you a bit more and the Mexicans have done the same so you know I think we've got that also think Trump one of the first things he will do in The first three months is try and resolve Israel which we saw the um um's already resolved yeah Lebanon already resolved so it's only it's only Hamas and Iran that's Iran that's basically left yeah and I think my view has always been Iran in the background has been agreeing to to whatever's

been going on um also um I think Putin and Ukraine will get resolved so a lot of the dollar premium risk premium comes out oil premium comes out oil can drop lower the Dollar can weaken just because geopolitical tensions go down so that's what I think the first order of business is get this stuff out of the way get things feeling better get the economy moving then start cutting government costs which takes time fora deregulation first and then via figuring out how can you save costs um and then there will be a broader implementation of

tariffs but that takes even Scott Besson said we can't rush Tariffs it has to take time and has to be thought through so that's more likely a 2026 thing which is usually the back end of the cycle anyway when liquidity is coming out so you can see the pattern of liquidity and then liquidity coming out as they really start stripping out government spending and they really start um tightening up on tariffs you you spoke about inflation or you spoke about um reducing rates and that obviously ties back to inflation Inflation the last reading we had

wasn't a good one it was like an increase in inflation and people started mentioning the word inflation again and inflation actually coming back in how do you think they juggle inflation coming back in with the need or the or the the desire to drop rates so we've just had a huge rise in the dollar that tends to lead to lower inflation yeah we've had oil prices at the bottom end of the range and the US Administration says they want To pump oil and they want to get oil lower so that's unlikely to be inflationary for

the time being China is on its ass so they're not buying commodi so it's not very inflationary Europe is the same so it's not very inflationary wages keep deflating so it's not very inflationary so I think it's just noise in the data so it's just it's just yeah I was about say just it sounds like a bit of noise in the data okay so that I mean that looks good um what do you Think of Elon and Vivic how how aggressive do you think they're really going to be I mean I've been following elon's tweets

and he's talking about things like abolishing the IRS and and you know reducing government departments how do you see that playing out do you think it's a real thing do you think they're going to turn America into like I mean they're talking about turning America back into a startup effectively it's and and America is one of the most Bureaucratic countries in the whole world where I mean there's so many layers to get [ __ ] done there that it's it's ridiculous it's it's it's absurd what goes on there it's absurd and I would say it

would be impossible in just politic for people saying it but the problem is it's musk and you never bet against Elon so something something suggests that he will do something now will they ever be able to push through a flat rate of Tax I mean think of the time I mean I live in the cands we don't pay taxes so you don't have to file company reports you don't have to file all your taxes you don't have to register every trade that you do you don't have to think all of that time consuming horror stories

hiring accountants and all of that stuff you don't have to do we pay it on import duties and um we pay it on would you live would you live in would you live in the Cayman If if if it was a taxable if the tax in the Cayman was the tax as the same tax as the UK or the the same tax as the US I didn't move it I didn't move it for tax I just you know I was living in Spain I didn't move here for taxes it just so happened I built this

house here and ended up staying and built real Vision here it it wasn't because of taxes at all you know I was living in Spain okay all right okay so you're saying that the the Quality of life there is is is is just amazing it's great it's great you know you're now from Miami three hours from New York direct flight to London direct flight to the West CO you know you can get anywhere from here and got almost no crime super high quality restaurants supermarkets everything else so your life is it takes a lot of

that stress and strain you know you're in Cape Town you've got brownouts every single day you've got enormous amounts of crimes You have to live in gated communities you know there's there those stresses around you don't exist here yeah yeah yeah and that's a big deal I didn't realize I didn't realized you didn't move there for the Texas it sounds like like a like a it sounds like a crypto move or a wealth move uh to move there foras because I built this house and fell in love with the place uh and then so I

live in Grand Cayman mainly but I'm over in Little Cayman today but that was That was because I fell in love with the place I thought I'll stay here for a bit 11 years later I'm still here it's amazing it sounds amazing and the house looks absolutely amazing um let's talk a little bit about crypto and and uh and the Bitcoin cycle so obviously bitcoin's had an amazing run uh actually before we before we before we started I looked at the price and how much we had just moved up since the election we're up like

50% since the election um too much too Quickly like or do you still see like a like a long run in Bitcoin how do you see for example the next couple of months playing out yeah you know don't forget we had an eight-month consolidation with a 40% range yeah that's why I ask right so so generally speaking it's intensive explosive coming out the banana zone right and I kind of set people up for the banana Zone and here we are in the banana Zone um so the question so we're in the banana zone so So

we're in you're saying we're firmly in the banana CH how could it not be bananas right 50% in a month yeah how big are the banana how big are the bananas in the Cayman because that's quite a big banana okay they're not very big here but um we're not far from a lot of big banana plantations in different Islands but um so that's a decent Siz banana but that's the start right because generally speaking the post elction year or what We would call crypto fall or crypto Autumn tends to be very strong so it tends

to be very strong the macro backdrop is obviously very good because of deregulation new government all of that stuff so we've got a good setup it's gone far and fast I think everyone's bit PTSD still so which is why I ER towards the the it probably has one more squeeze because so many people think it needs the correction now um but you know I Hear your point of view too so I'm not you know saying it has to be one or the other but that's my view it goes up first everyone thinks oh it's fine

we're at 110 we're getting 150 now and then it corrects in everybody's faces quite sharply so you're saying max pain you're saying max pain is another leg up that's what you're basically saying max pain is Max pain is is sending this thing one leg higher yeah one L hiring kind of disbelief and Then kind of trapping a bunch of new entrance in and then it does the typical 30% correction in a week and a half and everyone's like holy [ __ ] what is this thing I've bought you know why did my friend of Thanksgiving

tell my you know cousin Thanksgiving tell me to buy this it's gone down 30% you know we got to go through that sort of stuff then normally it should rally all the way through till us tax season which is April that's that that's April Yeah it's the March April period it usually is extremely strong going into that and then if it's very strong then you have a very big correction because everyone needs to pay some taxes so and then normally what happens is it corrects again so you can see it there in 2020 uh 2021

it then had a 50% correction that time and I'll come on to that in a sec and then and then it rallies into year end I think we're closer to a 2017 analogy which was a Much stronger back end of the year I think people have real PTSD from last time and I was actually going through this morning you know what was the key factor that caused the stunted cycle last time it's because the speed the business cycle went up straight out of recession and um how fast Financial conditions peaked they peaked in March of

2021 and the market essentially Peak there with the second attempt at rally um 20 17 peaked way towards the end of The year so it was just the weird setup of the postco you know inject all the liquidity then oh my God we need to withdraw it that setup I think caused that that cycle while 2017 and 2013 were were more similar okay and that means a correction over the summer and then a a big rally into year end okay so let me that's Bitcoin let me ask you a question if you had $110,000 right

now to invest you had to pick a horse would you pick Bitcoin or would you pick eth cuz eth Was was a trade that hasn't hadn't done much but I have been watching eth over the last couple of days um from a chart point of view I mean I think you are a man of the charts and that's pretty much what the chart looks like um another chart which probably with looking at is this eth BTC Channel which which which we've been following look you know go back to the longer version of that because everyone

shows this and goes oh my God it's Awful that is a big kind of wedgie pattern it doesn't look catastrophic right it's been kind of sideways range yes but my guess is same way as you that eth probably outperforms and the reason being is you're just going to deregulate this thing and if you are a financial institution you will tend to build on eth or E layer 2os and the reason being it's like IBM or Microsoft it's a broad deep EOS system you don't Get fired for doing it I mean again I think that's true

but I also think that um the the eth ETF flows I think the eth ETF hasn't had much love and I think the the fund managers are looking at this and going look bitcoin's up 50% since the election eth is not up 50% since the election ether's is up a lot less since the election and I I remember when I came into crypto and I thought I'd missed Bitcoin it was like Bitcoin had just rallied from 500 to 1,000 I was Like okay I've missed bit I've missed Bitcoin I get into eth and then it's

you know like $9 we started buying eth because we didn't even know what it was we just said well you know it's it's just crypto and it's not Bitcoin and bitcoin's had a run and I'm getting the same Vibes now like I'm I'm looking at Ethan I'm going you know like as a Layman you look at this and you go look I don't really know what Bitcoin is and what eth is I don't really know the Difference they're both cryptos one's the big one one's a slightly smaller one uh it looks like like like eth

eth may actually have a run yeah I I don't disagree there's that weird psychology that goes on it's Al I think you know there there is going to be fundamental flows behind it as well I think they e overbuilt capacity or block space for where we are currently in the market because of the layer twos but over time I think we'll use that block space up Because I think the institutions will use eth I think I agree with you although I think a lot of the eth layer 2 block block space is redundant I got

to be honest like I don't see why we need optimism and arbitrum to be honest like I think you know optimism kind of solves the problem by itself or arbitrum solves the problem but I think coinbase chose an optimism stack so I don't think we need those I think you've got a lot of these layer twos which are like like ZK this and ZK that and and and those things I don't know if we need that much block space I I don't know if we're ever going to need that much block space but that's probably

true I mean every one of these big infrastructure booms who overbuild whether it's Broadband whether it's whatever you know you always overbuild 3 G everything so yeah and I must say I also think that that eth without coinbase is nothing so I think like for me when I when I think about Eth I think they lucky that they had coinbase and that that coinbase brought in base because I think otherwise the the the hit on eth would have been a much bigger hit on eth like like one of the things that that I can't help

thinking is that the eth devs are probably the smartest people in the world and there's so many of them I don't know I went to e Devcon and I in Bangkok and I saw the amount of working and the amount of Brain power working but as I walked around there I couldn't help but think that they're all working very very very hard but they're working hard to solve a problem that it has been solved I mean if I look at if I look at what they're trying to achieve they're all working really really really hard

to fix eth and they're fixing eth by adding a layer two and adding reaking of the layer one onto the layer two you don't need that just use salana just use sui like why do we Need why do we need to fix the layer one again think of Apple versus Microsoft okay right there is no Investment Bank in the world that uses Apple because why the ecosystem of developers and applications for Microsoft is much bigger this is exactly the same okay so we may use Apple at home we may use all Apple phones but the

big corporations don't use apple unless they're in the media industry and and that's because and That's because they feel more comfortable that mic with Microsoft devs in the institutional setting so to speak and you can hire more because there's more around and there's more applications already been built on it um you know it's so it's past the kind of Lindy test so they think okay this is the easiest way to do it so let's say we're a bunch of Banks and we want to have some internal settlement system between us for derivatives whatever it Is

right we're unlikely to use salana we're more likely to use evm the reason do you think we're far down do you think you're far down in the in the road for for institutions to to be dead set on eth because like to me it also feels like we're really early in the race like I think if you look I mean you could argue that very few real world applications have already been built and so I think we're like in in the first mile of the race it depends what it is So if it's NASDAQ I

think it could be Sal Oru something because it doesn't have to to integrate it just needs to work fast right yes if it's something that needs to be settled processed clients systems accounting all of this [ __ ] the depth is all there for evm that that that's my that's what's my working hypothesis so from what you're saying what from what you're saying that means that eth would probably be maybe the trade of the cycle right now maybe you Don't need to buy eth because on a static but you could look at buying say eth

options or or something like that but I mean that would be probably based on that thesis you know Solana's had an amazing run against eth um I mean got I've got the soul e chart open I was looking at it earlier um Bas go back go to the weekly one of that or something I I still think the so e chart looks like it probably continues Um I think it probably continues that break out of that basing pattern suggests it goes quite a bit further so I'm not sure eth will outperform soul but I'm pretty

sure from now on eth outperforms bitcoin cast your mine back to 2020 yes November 2020 that eth really started outperforming Bitcoin yeah I remember I remember that well so so you say so you think that eth outperforms Bitcoin but but soul outperforms eth and The Soul eth chart continues to run yeah and I think sui outperforms um Soul so that's my risk stack so the least risky Bitcoin starts to underperform now we're getting to alt season as Bitcoin dominance Falls eth will do better but Sal is earlier in the adoption curve so it does better

S is earlier than the adoption curve and riskier so it does better generally how I think and and what do you think happens on salana after memes or do you think it's too Soon to be talking about after memes because I mean look there is a lot of good stuff happening on salana like there's there's drift derivatives gito with the with the with the me and the staking and everything else but I mean you could argue that right now the the transaction count and the and the um and the fun is being on salana is

being powered by the memes the the degenerates and their memes right um so what we're doing is Battle testing the speed and Efficiency of that chain right with memes and we it's proven itself endlessly that it is a really [ __ ] good experience so that itself is going to bring other applications layers whether it's gaming or whether it's Financial Market stuff whatever we've battle tested it by stupid [ __ ] memes launching 100,000 memes a day and trading them like degens all day if you think about that a bunch of users testing your product

do you think the Memes will that some of these memes will be here next cycle like I know I know you've been a big fan of of smoking chicken fish and I don't know Pepe and whatever do you think that they're still around next cycle or not some will which ones are they I have no idea will it be Bonk will it be whiff will it be something else when you say some are you talking are you talking some like 10 or some like 100 or thousand like you like My thesis is to me the

memes are amazing don't don't get me wrong I love the memes I play the memes it's the most fun that I've had in in in finance ever um you know that's it's it's it's it's it really is it's you Bard on a day you open a meme chart you throw some money into it and that's that's pretty much the rest of your day gone um and I've made a lot of money in mes but I also made a lot of money when nfts happened and I was like now when I look back at My nft

bags every single one of them is at zero um and and I don't ever see a Revival in those nft backs no I mean what's survived is Krypto punks which going to survive I mean barely it's surviving but it's but it's it's goping for I know it's like 40 something 50 maybe yeah yeah it's not small right um it's not zero value board Apes less value further at the risk curve um and then the art has been some of it been trading at almost record Highs but other than that yeah you're dead right so I

think it's the same playoff 99% of everything goes to zero and a few things do well but but you still think that people are GNA are going to be interested in in in in in in the culture behind the smoking chicken fish or the culture behind the dog with the hat no yeah yeah I must say I think I want to be out of my meane bags by the end of the cycle it's all about attention Yes something will do has captured attention since what 2013 or 12 unbelievable um but others won't capture attention I

just a game of attention I think Doge I think Doge um I think Doge becomes the biggest meme ever and the reason is I think in the next four years in the next four years I think we're going to hear more more about the department of government efficiency than any other any any other anything in the United States I think That there's going to be such a Elon and R are going to make so much noise around like someone someone want someone said to me the other day he said this is elon's presidency so it's

like it's like this is elon's presidency but I did read I did read something the other day where someone said both Trump and Elon have got big Egos and at some stage the two big egos are going to rub each other the wrong way and there's going to be a blowout and you don't want to be holding Doge when when that blowout happens between Elon and and uh and Trump my the I mean I agree with that um my thesis for doge is actually you's going to integrate it intox because like if I want to

pay you in South Africa and I'm in the Cayman Islands it's a pain in the ass crypto rail is so much easier but what's the what's the value of that I mean you're talking about Dodge I just want to open the latest market cap because the market Cap's like like Pretty high question is what is a payment system that's integrated into Twitter value cuz $58 billion I mean that's quite a I mean that's quite a number what stripe know it's a private company it's private company I think yeah um PayPal uh let's have a look

let's go look at let's quickly go here and quickly just quickly Google PayPal it's p PayPal PayPal Holdings let's see what PayPal Holdings is so PayPal Holdings is let's have a look here key earnings by market cap 86 billion so doge is $30 billion under PayPal that's like it's a meme coin this is this is the payment system of the world so to speak it's not a mean coin because doge is actually its own blockchain yes so it is diff it is somewhat different and just because of elon's ridiculousness he will force it into being

that's my general thesis like I canot formed a government Department called Doge I mean it's ridiculous Elon paid $40 billion for t this is valid at doge is valid at the same as Twitter I mean that's big yeah yeah but but I mean if it's about attention doge is going to get more attention than anything else in the next four years because Elon and Vic are going to go there and every single news headline is going to be about how they're cutting and how they're cutting And how they're cutting right yeah and then there'll be

lots of memes about Doge and you know Doge the warrior defeating the government Doge this Doge that that Bloody picture of a do will be up all of the time and he'll be posting it it'll be as you said if this game is attention it will capture gigantic amounts of attention so eth goes up more than Bitcoin Soul goes up more than eth sui goes up more than uh Soul Doge goes up more than sui or not so Much I don't know but the hell of a chart is I don't know if you've been following

the monthly chart of Doge Bitcoin Doge Bitcoin ugly truth that nobody wants to talk about is really do has been outperforming Bitcoin in its existence and it's just so look at the monthly chart since the beginning okay so let's look at that and look at the monthly chart since the beginning here it is keep going on a log you need to put on a log scale oh is is it on log Scale yeah uh is it on log scale it is no there it is so it came out it corrected it outperform it's causing a

flag I mean it has outperformed Bitcoin since it came out by 500% that's insane okay so what are we saying here that doge is harder money than Bitcoin is that what we're saying oh sorry outperform Bitcoin by by 160x well 1,650 per. okay sis that's crazy okay that's something we may joke we may Joke about this but it's been harder money than Bitcoin I wonder how many I wonder how many I'm just throwing rocks over the fence with that but you know what I mean right and I look at that that looks like a flag

if that bloody thing is a flag oh my God okay yeah I see I see the flag as well yeah yeah and if you look that if you look that on a weekly chart now if you change It to the weekly and then look at that flag it's actually broken out it's break move the trend line move the trend line down to the other high which is that high it's just broken it's just broken out on the weekly okay I see the point yeah so you see see my point right I see your point I

see your point so at 58 billion we should probably be adding to this position as opposed to cutting this position yeah I've been long for a while just on this thesis but this chart is Something I can't get my head around yeah you've learn my You' learn my outcome that the strongest Curren would be Doge I mean that is the funniest thing I've ever heard that is crazy I must I I I haven't I've obviously watched the chart and I've been around but I've never had that kind of perspective which has been like holy [

__ ] look at that um what else what what else is is is is peing your attention at the moment so I I know You're I know you're close to suie I know you're close to salana um I know you're an eth man and a Bitcoin man but and I know you in this part of the cycle you always tend to move down the rist curve I remember I remember in the last cycle this is where you started moving really down the risk curve so look at the suie Su Sal cross Su killer yeah uh

okay wait i' have I'd have to go Soul Su let's see if we can do Soul su Su soul is what you need but you just have to you're not on crypto that's why I'm not on crypto no if you oh yeah there we go Su s Su Sal not found no you have to do it Su divid USD divided by Soul USD okay then let's go so sui is usdt divided by S usdt okay okay broaden that base out that's an inverse head and shoulders I see it yet so there it is One two

all the way down if you put it on on The Daily it's pretty clear if that breaks yeah just scrunch it up further okay okay it's it's pretty clear inverse Head and Shoulders there we go that's the inverse Head and Shoulder and it is it's just under the neckline now yeah exactly so if it were to break that neckline that would force me to go further out the wrist curve that would I think it I think it Will break it because you know I've luckily I've managed to get this trade early not just because on

the foundation just because like I look at all of these crosses but that is the yeah that's the trigger in fact if it's a flat line and it goes if you just make it a flat line as opposed to sloping so on the right hand side drag that up it actually is perfect the two tops exactly so it's about there is yeah do yeah okay so so you're waiting so you'd break that and That would force you to take that would force you to take sui or to to I've already got sui but it would

force me to relocate Sal into sui more of it force you to reallocate salul into sui so you you would actually trade it you would trade your two risk assets one for the other correct I would go further out the risk curve because we are heading into full alt season so if you look at um if you look at um what's it called total total three No not total three um it's it's the it's the one crypto crypto total market cap excluding top 10 others others so if you go is that the um yeah if

you look at the others one okay there we go that's the daily yeah go to the weekly always like trying to look to the really long-term stuff where I can to give me perspective right that's a that's e a wedge or cup and handle whatever you want to talk About there there's a real breakout there's a real breakout that's happening yet look every time it does these wedges then it breaks in the year after or the election year in the year after we are there and so if that is the case and that chart breaks

and we start going to new highs then that means the risk curve goes out because don't forget so's not in the top 10 salana is so anything in below the top 10 is likely to Outperform yeah and so then you want to get what is the better bets now other people will have other bets versus mine which is suie it might be say it might be whatever monang could rip when it comes out whatever it is so I'm not saying you know you have to follow my advice but that's that's how I see the risk

curve now I wouldn't go all in but I would just reallocate a bit more because you know really what we're trying to do here is we are trying to Outperform that's why we're active if we weren't we'd just buy Bitcoin and go to the beach and not do anything so do you look at do you look at narratives or do you look at or do you just look down the risk curve when you look down the risk curve do you ever look and say okay I I want exposure to AI in crypto or I want

exposure to I did I did that last cycle I just had a wallet of Shame of a bunch of [ __ ] that I was left with that I didn't care about I tried the balance Portfolio on a bit of Defi and a bit of gaming and a bit of metaverse a bit of that it was all a waste of time because there is a limited amount of attention and a limited amount of capital and what you find is like there's like three to five horses that bolt out of the gate that are big enough

sure somebody else will find something much smaller and make 10 times as much money as me that is much more difficult the problem is that they'll Lose on 10 others and they won't talk about the L on the on the 10 others and I know that wallet of shame that you've got cuz I have it I have that same wallet where you it was once worth a lot of money and I think I got emotionally attached that wallet that was worth a lot of money and it just never ever recover the opposite is I wasn't

emotionally attached because I had a broad group so I thought the best way to nail the old season is have A broad basket right it just the only ones of that broad basket that worked for me were Avalanche and soul all the rest of it was a bunch of [ __ ] what about carda I mean do I know you followed it last cycle there's no no one really building on it well i't of many people building on it I know the cardo people are going to come here and tell me that everyone's building on

cardo but I mean there's rumors of Charles going up to to to assist Trump like any faith In In Those Old those old coins every time I talk about this I get into trouble and people attack me online so I'm not going too I know exactly how you feel I know exactly how you feel I've got views about all of this stuff but I can't because it just becomes unbearable well well let's talk I just wish everybody makes money let's let's talk let's talk broadly about old coins let old coins let's not let's not um

talk about specific ones but of the old Coins do you think other than salana which seems to have got traction and and eth and Bitcoin and Doge would you be looking at at Old Coins or would you rather be looking at New Vintage coins I I I think doge is an old coin it has no use yeah an old coin yeah yeah yeah it's an old coin it's a dino coin and there's a bunch of Dino coins and many of them have very strong communities and so that's why they're persistent they capture attention There's a

[ __ ] ton of content online on YouTube that exists so if you ever start going down the rabbit hole let's say you open a wallet today you look what's available in Robin Hood you see a bunch of tokens that were from last cycle you go on that you go on to YouTube and there's so much content about these things then you're like oh these are the big ones how do you reconcile how do you reconcile buying something that hasn't got Network effects just because like I I I watched the altcoin run last week last

weekend there was that massive altcoin run in fact you know without without getting ourselves into any trouble I'm going to call up the the weekly and you can kind of see on the weekly things like alaran Stella lumens uh sandbox sandbox the the sandbox has 50 these are all tokens I owned in that wallet of Shame last cycle all of them 50 it's it's 50 uh 50 users per day on a market cap of 1 something billion now Question is I I watched this run and I thought and Dot as well and I I watched

the run I thought it was pretty like obvious that it was going to happen but I actually decided not to participate in it because I just couldn't reconcile putting my money into something where I know it has no value because I just thought it's a game of hot potato and when the Music Stops I'm going to be left holding the hot potato and I don't want I don't want to do that I did that Last cycle look I don't want to comment too much but they're just attention and that's would you play the attention game

would you play the attention game I wouldn't it's not for me it's not for me but I understand why people do um happens is why tell me why you didn't tell me why you didn't you don't play Hot Potato why you don't play the attention game if it's so obvious because you don't know how long The attention lasts right that's the meme game which is why I only play small amounts in memes because you just don't know when the attention stops and goes somewhere else suddenly these things plummet right so the attention game is everything

um and I find that more difficult than something with fundamental proof like three is pretty easy because you can see the onchain activity building you can see the number of devs building it's It's like there's metrics that you can use um that don't apply to many other things to Doge for example apart from Doge nodes have been exploding and I don't really understand what that is um I must say I've actually never I've never looked at at running a doge node but okay I mean I thought apparently there's almost more than Bitcoin nodes now but

it's been accelerating in the last few months and there's speculation that Tesla are going to use or SpaceX are going to use the satellites for Doge noes I don't know so so when you so when you when you move down the risk curve I mean are you saying that you're going to go as far down as as sui and kind of stop at suie and maybe add so you're not going to go beyond that and like build a bag of like 10 other alt coins further down the further down that's not my game um I'm

not good enough um to do that and I don't have the attention to be able to manage a very active basket where things can change you know there's a for me right now there's a bunch of tokens that are of that new cycle that are meaningful and important whether it's Celestia whether it's suie whether it's SE whe you know there's a few of these around um maybe some of the AI ones but still a bit early for that and so I just think well that's just safer I'm not trying to make 100x Would you take

would you take leverage on on like would you would you increase Lage on these things or is that not not how you increase your exposure I've never used leverage all I've occasionally done is B call options very very occasionally I've never used leverage that is insane okay I I must say I use the first the first rule look it depends how experienced you are I'm a very experienced risk taker I don't like Leverage because this is the biggest Macro trend of all time the worst thing ever to do is lose your tokens yes rule number

one of the biggest trade of all time is not to be out of the TR trade it's as simple as that and you and I know in crypto there are so many ways you can [ __ ] this up ways you don't even understand don't worry I fuor up last cycle I trust me I know exactly and people will take your tokens or the market will take your tokens in more ways than you can possibly think about And so your job is to try and narrow that window of losing your tokens which is why I

don't use leverage I'm not trying to be the richest man in the world I just want to capture this biggest Trend in the world and you think it's just as simple as that just put your money into into the into the the the biggest Trend in the world what would you say what would you say to someone who doesn't have a lot to start with like if someone's got I don't know Five grand and and they're entering the biggest Trend in the world with five grand there's a lot of people out there that that have

that easy for you and I we've got we had some wealth before crypto started we could invest in it look I understand I understand that point of view and I understand how far they want to go out the risk curve but it becomes more about luck than skill there's very few people who are very good at that game it takes time it Takes a couple of Cycles at least before you kind of understand the casino and the rules right most of the time you don't so I would say if you've got five grand now stick

three of it into one of these kind of bigger tokens that can still do a 10x from here so that would be 30 Grand yes and then play in the mcoin casino lose some money maybe make some money but get the experience but then you've got that Balance where you can't [ __ ] the thing up because 30 grand is a lot of money to somebody who's got five yes that's what I'm trying to say they don't see it because they think I want to got a million dollars now because I saw a bloke on

Twitter who made a million bucks is you are definitely going to [ __ ] it up if you do that yeah I mean those people on Twitter never say I've lost my five grand Stak I've lost my 10 grand never say that you only hear the Winners so and let me ask you about trading versus holding it seems to me like you're much more of a holder you're not trading in and out of positions you're taking positions and you're holding those positions throughout the whole cycle um is that because is that is that because you're

a bad Trader or like what's the what's the rationale behind that um yeah I'm not the greatest Trader when it comes to Super volatile instruments I mean I've traded my whole Life um my if I've got superpow my superpowers ass and so longm time Horizons so like you immediately pull up a chart and it's probably the hourly chart I immediately pull up a chart the weekly chart I'm I'm the daily weekly I don't I'm I'm not the guy who trades I don't I don't have time to trade I and I spend very little time trading

but you know what I mean is many people pick up the hourly chart and you Know every chart I went through with you is like pick up hey look at the weekly look at the monthly yes so that's how the time Horizon I think in is is I'm trying to think of like from here to 2030 how do we make as much money as possible without losing control of our tokens that's the game but let me but let me ask you let me ask you let me ask you again a question like asset allocation works

for people that have assets to allocate I'm watching this as A viewer I I want to participate in this it's I don't have a lot of money like you know that asset allocation an amazing game would you recommend that those people maybe try some trades or would you still say said do third two3 yes I normally say do 8020 or 9010 so the speculative but if you're starting with a small position I did this with my sister-in-law in 2020 she's like I've got my 401k there's [ __ ] all in it what do I do

I said stick it all in Bitcoin Then I helped her with some allocation switches to Ethan salana and I don't know she's got hund and something thousand in that or whatever the number is it's now lifechanging and if it if it goes up another 5x into year end okay that's you know changing and that was One S I think we underestimate how how long the this um change or this opportunity is going to run for I remember when I got into the opportunity in 2016 I kept looking at it as if it Was going to

be a one or two year opportunity and I kept saying I got to make the money one or two years I got to make the money one or two years here I am almost seven years later you know or or 8 years later and so I think my my advice to people who are watching this with that with that canundrum is just keep DCA just keep dcing because inevitably the cycle lands up being much much much much much longer we're already for me for I've been I've been in the Cycle now for for eight years

you know and I thought it was going to be a two-year cycle and I thought I had a two-year opportunity and it landed up being eight years and if IID only just DCA consistently for those eight years keeping the conviction I think I would have had a much bigger bag than I had because I put money in and I was like okay the recycle is going to end I shouldn't be putting more money into this I should have just carried on dcing And dcing and dcing and saying that the cycle is going to be much

longer than we expected to be maybe not the specific cycle but the broad ccle because we hear we hear only about the cycle the fouryear cycle right so now everyone's like we I've got one year I didn't do that at all last time I just bought in 20 added in 2020 um two and so I was back at alltime highs in p&l well well before the market was because I bought a bunch of cheap Stuff and just thought about it in this long-term trade so again I'm still not thinking about oh when am I going

to time the top and get out all of my positions I will take some lifestyle chips off on Route because there's some stuff I want to do but I'm not out gonna get out of this Market why would you I was just hanging out in Silicon Valley with a friend of mine he bought a lot of Bitcoin at $3 is that is that Dan or Dan um no not I don't want to talk about I Won't mention him um because he's now very off the radar screen but he was very famous um I mean that

if he bought his original stake it would be 66 billion oh [ __ ] wow but you know whatever magnitude of money he's now got but it's it's billions and billions and billions of dollars I saw I realized when I first bought Bitcoin in two in 2013 I paid 200 bucks and I put a decent sized bet in you know 2013 right 200 Grand and I traded out at 2000 in 2017 it went up to 20 you know 20,000 blah blah blah if I have just held that original position to today it have been h100

million yeah I think it goes back to just keep keep dcing I you know generally as my as hard as it is try and DCA more when when the market goes down and less when the market goes up and if you listen to anom if you listen to Kobe they've all got long-term Holdings and then they trade furiously With the rest yeah they and they all say anam's very clear about this is keep a long-term bag do your trading separately you can do all the leverage all the stupid [ __ ] with that money because

if you lose it all you've still got 80% of your money in the long-term trade because this trade is currently $3 trillion market cap I think it goes in 10 years to hundred trillion do so we are 3% of the journey along yes yes 3% don't lose your tokens exactly I Think that I think for me that's the biggest lesson stop thinking about this as a short-term trade it's not a one-year trade crypto is not a one-year trade it's already for us being 10 you yours 2023 it's 11e trades mine is is slightly less it's

2015 so it's been a a seven or sorry it's been eight or nine year trade this is a trade that's going to continue for another 10 years just get into the trade and just get the exposure and keep increasing your Exposure I think that what we're building here is we're building the Google's and the Microsoft and the Amazon the next batch of the Googles and the microsofts and the Amazon which are going to be much much much much much bigger being the global decentralized Etc and I think that you just need to keep look how

many trillion dollar companies there are and how many trillion dollar blockchains one one how many trillion dollar companies I don't Know there's four or five now yes and at the end of this cycle there'll be five or six and something like Tesla or whatever is going to be worth three or four five trillion these blockchains are still cheap they're still cheap and so going to keep going on that note well thank you so so so much my friend it's so good to see you uh I see someone here is asking what your favorite restaurant is

in Cayman til's at Palm Heights the hotel Okay Tiles at Palm Heights yeah it's it's amazing the hotel is a super cool Boutique Hotel uh and the the restaurant is fabulous all right brother so good so good to see you so much love thank you so so so much my friend and to you guys we will see you guys again on Sunday remember on Sunday suay we have a an amazing meme show we're going to teach you guys how to use a new meme finding tool which is absolutely beautiful also remember there Are Black Friday

specials Below in the description there's a nordvpn one there's the 10% off the exchanges it's your last 5 or 6 hours to get into Front Runners at 50% off make use of these specials while you can because Black Friday ends in six hours I'll see you guys again on Sunday until then trade well my friends [Applause]