The compounding machine is exactly this. It's the idea that you buy, let's say, when Bitcoin's 1. 6 standard deviations oversold, where it is now, assume you don't sell, which is this no sales idea, is how much it compounds over time.
Yeah, the no sells is is how much it does over time. And this idea is how you really compound compound wealth. It also takes all of the stress out of markets because you look forward to when it gets two standard deviations.
You have to ask yourself, is tomorrow going to be more digital than today? If yes, carry on. If not, then you've got something else to worry about.
But that's basically it. And it just keeps you in the trade. And markets have a way of humbling everyone.
Whether you're a retail investor managing your first portfolio or a seasoned macro strategist with decades of experience, this cycle has repeatedly challenged assumptions that once seemed almost certain. Traditional playbooks have broken down. Bitcoin has behaved differently from previous cycles.
Artificial intelligence has created entirely new investment themes, and even some of the most respected market voices have found themselves adjusting their expectations as new data emerges. That makes one question more important than ever. How should investors actually position themselves in an environment that's changing this quickly?
Today's discussion features macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raul Pal alongside Real Vision's chief crypto analyst Jaime Coups as they review real portfolios submitted by members of the community. Rather than making broad market predictions, they break down actual asset allocations, explain where they see strengths and weaknesses, discuss risk management, and share how they're thinking about Bitcoin, Ethereum, artificial intelligence, tokenization, and the next phase of the crypto cycle. Whether you agree with every conclusion or not, hearing experienced investors explain why they would structure a portfolio a certain way offers valuable insight into how professionals think through uncertainty.
In today's video, we'll look at two very different portfolios. The first is built around artificial intelligence stocks, Bitcoin, altcoins, and cash, while the second combines long-term equity investing with an aggressive Bitcoin allocation and carefully selected crypto positions. You'll hear exactly what Raul Pal and Jamie Coots like, where they think changes should be made, and which themes they believe could define the next several years.
But before we jump in, if you enjoy thoughtful discussions about Bitcoin, crypto, macro investing, and the future of financial markets, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, share it with someone who would find it useful, and turn on post notifications so you never miss our future uploads. Your support genuinely helps us continue producing content like this. The first portfolio comes from Demetrios Aram and is built around four major allocations.
30% is invested in artificial intelligence focused equities including Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, Palanteer, AVgo and Koi. Another 30% sits in Bitcoin as the portfolio's core holding while 20% is allocated across Solana, Hyperlquid, Sooie, Near and Aerodrome. The remaining 20% is held in USDC as dry powder giving flexibility to deploy capital when new opportunities emerge.
It's a portfolio that blends artificial intelligence, digital assets, and liquidity, but is it balanced correctly? Here's what Raul Pal and Jamie Coots had to say. This to me is a very solid kind of exponential age technology portfolio that units of intelligence per, you know, yeah, output of intelligence per unit of energy.
This is right in line with that. It's like, you know, it's got all of the component parts at top level that you'd want. You've got hyperscalers, you've [snorts] got the chips, you've got the intelligence layer, uh you've got the robotics layer.
I mean, I just added Robo. Um I was tossing up between Robo and D and Koi to add to the GMI portfolio recently. Um so I think it's pretty solid.
Um you will get some rotations um over time, but you know Tesla's been underperforming. You know, Alphabet did really well. Um, and we will still sort of see a rotation through this.
So I think at 30% you're not overly weighted, you're not underweighted and the BTC thing is, you know, a pretty solid, you know, core construction. So if you think of that, the core construction, the cash part looks good, too. And whatever optionality you want to choose from that, I don't think you got anything really dragging, nothing really dangerous to me.
Jamie, what do you think about the alts, the sizing, what he's got, how he's thinking about it? [snorts] Well, I mean, if it's okay, if he's been more AI exposed over the last like 12 months, 18 months, he's he's done very very well. If he's shifting into alts now and he's got a higher he's got a higher crypto component or a higher crypto waiting than the AI exposure at the moment, I think going forward, that is the right play.
Um, it might be like I still got this view that it's going to be a little bit bumpy for a couple more months, but in terms of like positioning for the next big wave, it's I think back into crypto because of the agenda commerce and tokenization themes. So, the waitings look pretty good for like 12 months to 18 months out. And the only thing I would I would just point out with the portfolio is that there is no positioning in ETH.
Yeah, I was I was thinking that as well. There's one blind spot would be ETH in this. Yeah, I like I mean everyone likes to dunk on ETH.
It's still the center of gravity for the crypto economy and I think it's starting to shape up really well if you look on those long-term charts. Maybe we can get to some of those charts towards the end of the show. But that's the only thing I'd point out is that you know ETH deserves a a place there.
But if we well let's go out to the weekly. We should always start on the longer time frames. And if we look at ETH right now, and I will put on the demark on the weeklies because that's where it really matters, and I'm not sure if you're following like the counts here, but we're still some way away from really getting an exhaustion low in ETH, but that's what I'm watching for.
And you're looking at long-term support that's multi-year in nature. If we had time, we could go over the fundamentals. So I don't want to spend too much time on it, but like is ETH ETH has actually picked up in terms of transactions and on the fundamental side is looking a lot better than where it was sort of 6 months ago.
And so these areas around sort of like 1,500 have been on my radar for quite a long time. So look, what I'm just saying is that I think for the whole space to rally, ETH is going to have to be a part of that. And I think, you know, you know, it's weird, Jamie.
We had a nine count on ETH that flipped this week. Did it. Yeah.
So, we got nine on on um on No, we're sevens on Bitcoin. Salana is a 10, but we flipped a bunch of the counts because it's been so strong, which is it's can be a good sign. Can also be like really.
Do you spend much time on the monthlies? I do and they've uh um Sweden its monthly uh let's have a look. Hold on one sec.
Yeah, I do. I love to see the confluence. So Swedes got the monthly nine last month.
Bitcoin is a monthly nine this month. ETH is a monthly nine and a 13 monthly nine. A 13 monthly Salana.
I mean that's a full sweep of monthlies. The weeklies either have confirmed or were confirming and then flipped. We got a price flip.
Uh yeah, I I think it's super interesting levels as you said because they're on the key big lines as well. Yeah. So I mean like monthlies really are in in crypto a very longdated a very longdated view but it doesn't happen often when you get Exactly.
So they are worth noting. Now, monthly can mean that it could still bump around for a little while, like weeks and months thereafter, but I think we're starting to see the signs that of exhaustion in this downtrend. So, all I'm saying is with ETH is that it may not outperform some of the other L1s, but if you've got a portfolio and you're trying to play it relatively safe within the space and you want exposures to to crypto, then ETH is probably worth consideration.
After reviewing the first portfolio, one message becomes clear. Both Raul Pal and Jaime Coots appreciate the overall construction because it reflects several of the technological trends they believe will drive long-term growth. They like the combination of artificial intelligence infrastructure, Bitcoin as a core position and a diversified basket of leading crypto projects.
While Ethereum has faced heavy criticism throughout this cycle, both believe its improving fundamentals and central role in the crypto economy make it difficult to ignore, particularly if the broader digital asset market is preparing for another expansion. The next portfolio takes a noticeably different approach. Submitted by David Nez, it separates investments into two distinct buckets, crypto and traditional equities.
On the crypto side, roughly 65% is allocated to Bitcoin with additional exposure to Salana, Ethereum, and Sooie. The equity portfolio combines broad market index funds through the S&P 500 and NASDAQ with targeted positions in strategy, Bitmine, TN, SMH, Microsoft, and Tesla. Perhaps most importantly, David explains that he has been compounding for six years without selling his Bitcoin or index funds, choosing instead to keep buying during market pullbacks.
That long-term philosophy becomes the starting point for Raul Pal and Jamie Kutz's next discussion. The compounding machine is exactly this. It's the idea that you buy, let's say, when Bitcoin's 1.
6 6 standard deviations over sold where it is now and assume you don't sell which is this no sales idea is how much it compounds over time. Um uh yeah the no sales is is how how much it does over time and this idea is how you really compound compound wealth. It also takes all of the stress out of markets because you look forward to when it gets two standard deviations.
You have to ask yourself is tomorrow going to be more digital than today? If yes, carry on. If not, then you've got something else to worry about.
But that's basically it. And it just keeps you in the trade. And then, so if we assume those are his core positions, uh, let me just close this window.
If we assume that those are his core positions, um, I makes perfect sense. So really in his po core positions, it doesn't show the split between equity and crypto. Um he's then got layered on some Asana overweight um Ethan Sui and then the smaller weight micro strategies which is more Bitcoin.
So he's very very overweight Bitcoin. So and that's fine. That's fine if that's what you want to do.
The equity stuff is kind of noise. It's so small outside of the ones you've got. Um, it depends.
I do like the soul. Like there's there's a little bit the last portfolio didn't have any energy exposure and coming from someone who doesn't have enough energy exposure. I I like the fact that he's got 5% in 10 because that's a very smart play.
Yeah. Yeah. I I like that.
I like that play a lot. What I'm questioning is is 5% worth the hassle? And it depends how diversified do you run your portfolios?
I tend to be more concentrated because I find what I've learned over time is you have too many stocks you don't watch them because it's only 5% and then you lose money in all the small that you don't look at. Yeah. Well, I think with this the way I'm sort of looking at it and thinking about it is that it's basically because tan is such a low volatile strong trend and it's a long theme that what you're doing is you're just lowering the volatility of the overall portfolio.
So depending on your risk profile to me this is someone who has very keen eye on what's happening with respect to all technologies and is basically looking at the best way to play it with minimal volatility. I mean you can't I'm not sure about I'm not sure about micro strategies as minimum volatility. [laughter] Well, as [clears throat] a percentage overall, but yeah.
Yeah. I mean, uh, also if you bucketed them as like crypto core, equity core, and then AI, the AI trade, you put TAN, SMH, Microsoft, Tesla all together, at 20% weight. That's that would make sense if you think of it as a bucket, I guess.
Yeah. Does that make sense to you, Jamie, then? That way?
Yeah. Yeah. No, absolutely.
I quite like it. I mean, it's probably a little bit overweight Bitcoin. Um, just where I think the the world is going, but like I I have run Bitcoin at those percentages for a long time.
So I can I sort of sympathize with that view. But I think with the world going the way it is and I'm a huge believer in Bitcoin is a lot my largest position. I think the the reallocation back into sort of the oversold smart contract platforms and some of the applications is going to play out a little bit better this cycle or the next the next four years than it did in the last four years cuz clearly that was a Bitcoin dominated uh Bitcoin dominated cycle.
But I think with the tokconomics improving in crypto, the supply discipline that I'm starting to see come through from a lot of protocols, and then all of the demand that's going to eventually show up because of tokenization and agents, I think L1's and a few of the applications are going to do a little bit better than what they did in that last cycle. Looking across both portfolios, one consistent theme stands out. Raul Pal and Jaime Coots are less interested in chasing the next short-term headline and far more focused on owning assets they believe will benefit from long-term technological change.
Whether that's Bitcoin, artificial intelligence, tokenization, smart contract platforms, or the infrastructure supporting the digital economy, their emphasis remains on identifying durable trends rather than trying to predict every market swing. Another important takeaway is that portfolio construction matters just as much as individual investments. Diversification isn't simply about owning more assets.
It's about understanding why each position exists, how much risk it adds, and whether it strengthens the overall strategy. While both experts agree that Bitcoin remains a cornerstone of long-term portfolios, they also suggest that improving crypto fundamentals could allow assets like Ethereum and selected layer 1 networks to play a larger role than they did during the previous cycle. Perhaps the biggest lesson is psychological.
Raul Pal repeatedly argues that compounding works best when investors avoid constantly jumping in and out of positions. Instead of allowing short-term volatility to dictate decisions, his approach focuses on remaining invested in long-term trends while adding during periods of weakness. Whether viewers ultimately agree with that philosophy or not, it provides an interesting framework for thinking about investing in an increasingly digital world.
If you found today's breakdown valuable, we'd sincerely appreciate your support. Please like this video, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already, share it with friends or family who are interested in crypto and investing, and turn on notifications so you never miss our future videos. Your support allows us to continue bringing you in-depth analysis from some of the biggest names in macro investing and digital assets.
Be sure to check out the other videos on the channel for more conversations with leading market experts. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you in the next video.
