let bringing our political director Washington bureau chief Rick Klein Rick the poll's all bunched up as we head into the final weekend walk through some of the different paths that each candidate has yeah good morning George the 538 uh Battleground polls tell the story right now the polling averages everywhere all seven Battlegrounds no one has a can a lead of of more than two and a half points all within any poll's margin of error so to start with if you just assume that the polls are accurate which of course is a huge assumption this is
where things would land at the end of election night Donald Trump over 270 electoral votes he would clinch the presidency for a second time but no map is a foregone conclusion so let's play with a scenario here uh let's say that that the polls are understating vice president Harris or that she has a big ground operation eeks out just enough votes to win here's a scenario that's probably her likeliest path to Victory she picks up one electoral vote in Nebraska and then Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania the Rust Belt the blue wall holds right there if there's
no other surprises that's 270 electoral votes but of course the polls could be off in the other direction or Trump is able to hold this is Trump's likel path to Victory if he holds the two Battlegrounds out west in Nevada and Arizona and the two Southern Battlegrounds Georgia and North Carolina he is then just one state away from clinching the presidency Pennsylvania is the biggest prize on the map that's the best opportunity for him the single most important Battleground State on the map probably for either candidate George Rick we have massive early vote but does
it tell us anything well look this is what we know so far 65 million Americans have voted already that is something it's 40% of the total turnout from 2020 was still four days to go we don't know who people voted for quite yet but the Harris campaign's been touting what they call good news for them in the early voting they're looking at the gender gap so far women making up about 55% of the people who have already voted that Gap was actually a little bit larger by a single point four years ago although in 2016
uh it was a little bit more even so they like those numbers the other thing we can tell is the likely partisanship of people have already voted so far across the Battleground States a two-point Edge for Democrats of course they like that but four years ago it was a nineo point Edge a lot of things have changed in terms of voting in the four years so it's hard to read too much into that but the bottom line there is no data that definitively says who will win and who will lose this race the votes that
will decide it almost certainly have not yet been cast George and it's just so hard to read okay Rick Klein thanks very much
