Bali’s Real Estate Market Is Shifting–Here’s The Data You Need to See! | [INDO & ENG SUB]

if you watch these particular numbers over time you'll see one Trend and that is that the number of results only goes up and never goes [Music] down hi good afternoon from Bali J welcome back so yeah it's me again Nadia and where are you J very good question so today I'm actually at the faculty of uh mathematics and computer science at the University gaj so just earlier I was speaking in front of a class of students who are interested in uh pursuing careers and startup in the digital industry so it was very fascinating opportunity to

speak to uh the young students in Indonesia right now I'm in The Faculty Lounge here with Fon who is actually part of our uh vice president employee experience team he's over there but the camera is right now so it's mostly okay all right Nadia good to see you again and are we ready to talk a little bit more about Market insights yeah sure so remember a few moments back we have discussed about Market turbulence and I remember you were seeing lots are happening and the market is not really good at the moment so we've got

some questions actually especially from our property owners can you show datas best to actually prove of what happening with the market excellent so so I can Sho uh a lot of data sources that anybody who can uh just go on the internet and go to a few websites can observe for themselves okay so what we do at book Vista is we use proxy indicators to try to figure out General Trends now this is a public Channel right now with the Vol Business Review so I will not be sharing any private information from bgat Vista that

is our proprietary information that belongs to our company and it belongs to the user Ser our company but what I can do is I can share some general methods in which any particular independent Observer can check for themselves okay so I'll introduce you to a few um interesting websites that any particular person can go and get a better handle of what's happening in the entire market so I'll share my screen okay yep all right perfect so let's go ahead and uh look into it where can we begin so the first website that we could take

a look at is glogal Trends is a highly available website that any particular person who is looking for understanding of keyword Trends can search on so you can open up this right here and on Google Trends you can type in words that you want to look for right you can look for words such as B and there you go you can see how Vol now looks on uh the search volume in Indonesia to in all categories so Google collects essentially information across all these different major verticals and then it's able to display the trends of

course we don't want to look for how popular is Bali in Indonesia we want to know how popular Bali is in the world and we also want to know how popular is Bali from 2004 until now okay so as you can see the particular trend line shows this right so sometime around the January 2020 this was slightly just before covid Bali reached Peak popularity in terms of searches on the internet that was 100 if you can see over here uh the relative popularity score was 100 right now these days it's about 80 so the popularity

of balle in terms of its Appeal on the internet has essentially Fallen a bit from Peak which is at January 2020 this was Peak Interest in buy and Peak demand after Co of course where nobody was interested very much in Bali except the people in Bali we see that it went down but it's climbed back up again so this demand essentially reached a peak sometime around last this year around May everybody was very Happ with the occupany and you can see it was 85 in comparison to 100 before okay and nowadays it is uh dropped

and it's 76 okay so here's a very simple research that anybody could use in order to see how things are going but what you can also do is you can also compare B to Thailand Okay you can compare B to Thailand and this is the trend Thailand in 2004 was actually much much higher in terms of popular area than B I know because I traveled to both regions when I was uh first coming to Indonesia and then sometime around the 2017s B crossed over in popularity and then B surpassed Thailand in popularity by almost 25

points here just before covid both destinations fell and then Thailand Rose but sometime around this September Thailand overtook Bali in terms of its overall popularity Now Thailand is leading relative to Vol buy almost what is that that's about 20 points or so yeah a little less than 20 points okay so that's one of the things Nadia that we can use on the internet to observe and say whether or not demand is picking up or not okay is that pretty clear Nadia yeah that's very clear okay fantastic let's go to another thing so often times people

will use let's say sources of government statistics and whatnot that they get but I find that those statistics really depend on the rigor the process of Statistics gathering in the country and and actually having some experience in faculties here I know sometimes that there can bees right sometimes it's not totally reliable so this is what I prefer to use to estimate also to On Demand it's this departure flight schedules okay flight schedules of Denpasar airport are fairly accurate okay why are they fairly accurate because if they're not accurate people would complain immediately about it because

there's a flight that's supposed to come in that never existed or a flight that was supposed to leave that never existed you can somewhat rely on the um accuracy of flight arrival information flight departure information so what do we take a look at we can look at the total number of inbound cities and flights and we know essentially from this also we can calculate what the capacity of each load of passengers are and so if you look at this over time what you'll find is certain Trends you'll find that it's seems like there's fewer flight

rights actually coming internationally to Bali so right now you can see all right where are the inbound flights coming from qu lumur Singapore hoi men Singapore Hong Kong qu lur Kur all these I'm sure anybody can actually do the work themselves but you'll see that there's a lot of flight routes that have been reduced over time once again how do you actually make observations about demand you just regularly go and look at these sites and you can see whether flights have been added or subtracted and that gives you some Market Insight that gives you Market

Insight on total number of passengers that are expected to arrive to B during any season during any time of year so this type of information you can also add together with the capacity of each airplane how many of those planes are coming per day and it gives you a total inbound perception of whether is capacity to of man coming to Vol as a whole and these numbers seem to actually been dropping there are fewer Direct flights from major Chinese cities there are also fewer direct flights from Japan other major markets that used to be here

as well or the frequency of these flights have been scaled out okay hopefully by just looking at these two really simple really easy to use tools consumers and investors can actually have a very clear picture of how to estimate demand and the point if you want to take it up a step even further what you can do is simply record the results via screenshot or if you're very Savvy you can have ai Engineers collect all this information in compile it over time and you can see what the actual amount of demand fluctuating is as a

market of vol so that gives you like some top level uh idea about how demand works okay not is this so we can see that the demands is slowly decreasing time to them what about the supply is the supply also the same decreasing or what do you think what is happening Supply is not decreasing the supply is only increasing and once again concurrent with our previous analysis on Market turbulence the supply is increasing at a faster rate now let's go ahead and try to go on once again public resources where we can actually take a

look and understand how quickly the supply is increasing okay yes so any type of Supply that intends to increase will probably make itself onto a few marketplaces one of the marketplaces that Supply will will emerge is of course the real estate market so you can probably guess that most people looking to buy B of real estate will probably look for the keywords B real estate this is the most popular search term if you want to buy B real estate you can probably also search for I don't know you can probably search for B property for

sale I happen to know these keywords quite intimately because my previous experience for almost four years I worked as a Property agent in the South part of B for the company exotic which used to be the largest Property Management oh sorry property sales company in the area so we worked on selling Villas and also land so where do we go and find the largest markets for Real Estate we simply go here we go to the largest organic ranked sites why do we just go to the first large sites because these sites probably have already been

ranked by Google these sites have already been identified as having essentially the most complete database the uh most engaged users so you don't need to go very far down this particular list in order to get a good picture of what essentially is available for sale in the Bui property Market you don't need to research thousands and thousands of sites Google has already helped you quite effectively by prioritizing the correct sites up to the highest ranking search positions for the keywords fly real estate fly property so all we need to do is then open up these

particular sites we then just need to look at how many properties are for sale and we just need to keep track of that currently on this particular site this is real estate.com.au there is 2,420 results okay so that's a figure but what does that mean does that mean there's TR truly only 2,420 results not quite as we zoom out and we take a look at some of these particular properties we find that some are actually multiple unit properties so there's not just one actual unit listing there's multiple listings per unit so the actual number of

properties that could be for sale could be numbering in much much higher than just what we see also it pays to pay attention to how quickly these numbers change over time if you watch these particular numbers over time you'll see one Trend and that is that the number of results only goes up and never goes down and do you know what that means NAIA it's meaning there's a lot of Supply currently in the market correct so a balanced Marketplace should actually see listings go up but also listings come down after they've been sold after all

who keeps on selling property if it's not available however if you see that the results keep on climbing over time that indicates that the U appetite for buying properties is not as strong as the urge to sell properties so simply put you can examine all the major real estate sites and you can examine how many results that they have available which is generally easy to find find and some corner of the page over on the side over here right you can take a look and sort by Price you can sort by order and you can

start seeing how many properties are actually available in the particular Marketplace and count so these are uh the numbers over in Bali realy I'm sure they have probably a number here okay we got about three pages of this particular result over on this side now not every property in the market is essentially in the uh I would say in the order to actually uh be sold some are simply just uh hunting for a lucky buyer but simply put if you pay attention to these websites and you just uh are able to read the results count

the number of pages see what the total numbers are you will find that all property Pages only seem to be increasing in the number of listings without decreasing in the number of listings and so that is obviously not so good the other major thing that often is not so good too is this most property real estate sites would organize themselves according to a simple digital marketing strategy you would organize your landing page the first page on your uh the immediate page in which you land onto their site to be the most optimal with products that

are the easiest to sell the reason behind that is that increases the overall revenue and the overall conversion rates of any particular real estate site now if you open a real estate site and just just go through the mindset of you know what I actually buy this particular object for the price that's listed is this good value and you find a lot of good value that's a good indication that let's say there's a healthy Market but if you go on to essentially the first page and all overpriced and off plant objects then that probably means

that there are no good objects and that's why the real estate agent has not actually placed any particular anything on that first landing page because there's nothing good this is another intuitive signal to any Savvy property investor that the amount of Supply is also growing and this is essentially what's also adding to the market turbulence now I encourage let's say any particular Saud investor to just take a simple process in the workflow that I've just described to just simply Monitor and check what's going on so that they can make their own conclusions on what's Happening

and if you do find that you have a different conclusion than the one that I've come up with please please once again Market insights is about open conversation it's about transparency so let me know in the comments below and I'd be happy to be educated by somebody who knows more about the marketplace than I do but with the experience and the background and the years I've been here in Bali in Indonesia I haven't found too many people yet that actually have been able to offer counter evidence or any particular direction or narrative that supports a

different understanding of this okay so here we use use data here we use transparency here is how we use essentially the fundamentals of uh just basic micro and macroeconomics to explain things in the marketplace uh we hope that this particular culture of using datadriven decision-making can overcome cultures of uh anecdotal narratives that people find from rumors spread by drivers or whatever they hear in the local bars and nightclubs whatever establishments in a smoking Circle or whatever right this is based on facts this is based on data this is based on analysis and we hope that

this Bly Business Review episode can uh help educate investors who are looking to make a smart decision on how to do research on their own time and on their own efforts if you're too lazy to do the research I'm sure you can probably plug this all in by screenshot into chat GPT have to count up all the listings for you and you can just simply monitor what's happening to as well that's another very effective option that can Empower The Savvy investor with doing their own research and finding how to find a good bargain in the

marketplace okay all right so anyways that's just general advice that say could be helpful for anybody looking to escape marketpl so those are some data sources that are publicly available any other questions that you would like to ask at this momenta so yeah thank you so much Jing for the explanation I'm pretty sure everyone who asking or who are curious about the evidence to back up yours PR to statement about Market Tri bones I hope it's clear for everyone and you have any more questions feel free to leave it in the comment and we'll make

sure to make more followup Market inside video in the future so thank you so much for watching it was a pleasure to be here on work insights Again by the B Business Review look forward to seeing engagement on the comments below and engaging with our very esteemed B investor communi see you guys thank you byebye [Music]