The Fed *JUST* Issued Warning: Meet Kevin Report 1 [Jan 6].

just today on Monday January 6th the Federal Reserve provided a warning that nobody listened to Donald Trump got certified on the 4year anniversary of j6 I'll leave a comment down below if you were with me that day four years ago when we covered an over 10hour live stream of that day and Justin Trudeau quit with poly Market good old insider trading finding out before anyone else we'll talk about that as well as CES starting this week and people are claiming Dell is now copying Apple so let's hit it all in today's meet Kevin report news that makes you money look I quickly want to just start by saying I'm bringing this back because you asked for it somebody here wrote well actually 54 Woods girl wrote everybody don't we wish that Kevin would put out a new show once a day at least you were the best at this Kevin to which I asked on X and many other platforms is this real sentiment and many of you replied saying yes this is exactly what you want so because you asked for it let's give it a shot so first in macroeconomics this morning we woke up to a market rally thanks to what was going on with foxcon which we'll talk about in a moment propping up the AI sector but also this idea that Donald Trump might actually want or desire more narrow tariffs a lot of this was inspired through potentially leaks or rumors that Donald Trump is open to using a universal tariff amongst all countries rather than specifically targeting countries like Mexico or Canada or China basically saying look if you want to do business with the United States there's going to be a sales tax for you on it obviously Democrats latch on to this and say that any kind of tariffs are simply going to lead companies to raise prices and therefore consumer prices are going to go up but those of you with then economic interest know that the only way that could happen is if those companies actually have a large enough PP because without a large PP there is no way you could pass that extra cost on to Consumers instead without pricing power You're simply going to take it in the margin and nobody wants to take it in the margin taking in the margin is also what could end up leading to layoffs which so far we actually haven't seen which is one of the reasons why the economy keeps booming that hasn't stopped the Wall Street J though from talking about a little labor market being more poopy doopy than maybe it outright looks like it is but before we hit the Wall Street Journal just as quickly as I brought up this idea that Donald Trump might be interested in more narrow tariffs or a universal blanketed tariff Donald Trump basically within an hour or two came out and said that this was a fake news we're still doing bigly tariffs now in my my opinion when there are leaks like this and then you have people like Trump or musk suggesting that it's fake news there could be a sign that there's a little bit of Truth in it and I wouldn't be surprised if a universal tariff is what we end up getting it makes it the easiest way to sell to all com uh countries and say look everybody's going to start at 10% now maybe I'll give you a coupon code if you give me certain favors I actually kind of think it's a good negotiation strategy so I kind of believe that there's some truth to these rumors but we'll have to see anyway the Wall Street Journal did write a lengthy piece today with actually no Nick tamos in it I was surprised by that on the 27 we unemployment rate Rising now many of those of you who've been watching the channel for a while know that I've been specifically freaking out about this 27 we or 6month unemployment rate uh Rising uh and the Wall Street Journal didn't specifically mention the 27 week figure except instead rather they mentioned the six-month figure I just want you to know those are the same so the 27 week unemployment figure is up 50% since 20122 that figure is uh also uh hitting its highest level in categories like white collar worker categories like Tech Law and media what I basically C categorize as your like classic Tesla buyers and the unemployment to job openings ratio typically measured by the jolt survey uh job openings and labor turnover survey so I guess that's a little we done it the jolts uh ratio is now 1: one this is where Powell wants it to be the problem is we got here with one missing piece and I want you to kind of think about having a softer labor market as a puzzle imagine you're putting together the puzzle and you're going to go okay we're going to constrain demand so we're going to have less demand then that'll lead to less hiring so less job postings and it'll take longer for workers to find work and we'll have layoffs if all of those things come together and we get to an unemployed to jop openings ratio of 1 to one we're good that's what the Federal Reserve wants to achieve the problem is we have achieved that one:1 ratio with three out of those four components we've got the less demand you know outside of the AI sector we've got the less hiring and we've got the it's taking longer to find jobs portion so we got three out of four but we're already at 1:1 and we haven't hit layoffs yet and this Wall Street Journal article is arguing what happens if all of a sudden layoffs come in then we take what are marginal job numbers that we have today and potentially push us into a recession I'm not saying that to be a bear I'm just saying it to give you a heads up that when the Wall Street Journal starts putting on their front page hey just a heads up watch for layoffs because when that starts hitting the data that's already marginal for jobs data basically showing there's really only hiring in government and Healthcare which are lagging sectors although mining manufacturing Transportation are still holding up quite a bit everything else is kind of falling you might want to pay attention in this comes at the same time the same day actually which is often not uncommon because the Wall Street Journal seems to coordinate with the Federal Reserve that labor warning comes on exactly the same day that the Federal Reserve issued a warning to today yes Lisa Cook over at the Federal Reserve said the quiet part out loud we reviewed a little logic puzzle by the way together with course members this morning and I'll give you a little preview of what that puzzle looks like and the reason I mentioned this puzzle is because I also want to provide an update that wait a minute when Lisa Cook gives this warning she a little bit gives kind of a quiet warning that's the opposite of what I think the Federal Reserve is trying to do take a look at this might be a little confusing at first don't worry I'll clarify this so here's a little logic game I did with course members this morning we uh we did every day the Market's open we do usually a market open live stream together it's about an hour of real estate and stock analysis and Q&A and everything so a little logic puzzle we wrote is a if fed signals concern Market Falls C you fall into recession in other words it's like a self-fulfilled crash right if the market If the Fed says everything is great the market goes up you might avoid avoid a recession the FED wants to avoid a recession and if the market goes up the FED may be able to avoid a recession therefore the FED should signal optimism to the market AKA therefore the FED will pump markets right so it's a simple logic game that says the Federal Reserve is actually in a place where they're perversely incentivized in English it makes sense for them to pump up the market which I think is really interesting but at the same time in like really quiet Corners there are people at the Federal Reserve that are Whispering problems okay take a look at this Lisa Cook says on Monday valuations are elevated in a number of asset classes including equity and corporate debt yeah there's like no risk premium between corporate debt and treasury debt anyway where estimated risk Premia are near the bottom of their historical distributions suggesting that markets May be priced to Perfection and therefore susceptible to large declines which could result from Bad economic news or a change in investor sentiment okay well remember this comes just at the same time as the Wall Street Journal is saying the last Domino to fall is layoffs we haven't seen layoffs yet which drum Powell says is good and everybody says is good but the people who are really paying attention realize that's the last Domino and when that last Domino goes at the same time that you have sky- high valuations well then you could have bad economic news and this is why I give a warning please pay attention to layoffs it's the last Domino and they are now saying the quiet part out loud that Jerome Powell won't say because Jerome Powell wants to play the logic game as in yeah basically manipulate markets pump the markets to try to prevent a recession the thesis here is that if wealth goes up because of the stock market or real estate market then people will spend more money and businesses will go back to hiring maybe that'll happen in fact that's what I hope will happen I hope that in January February and March every business goes out there and just starts hiring a bunch of people and we actually have job growth again not like the nominal growth that we've been having that's been mostly health care and um uh and government jobs you know you can have a lot of unemployed government workers soon if uh VI VI's plans come through but anyway this is a very interesting warning because this is all coming as the Wall Street Journal is also saying that the cape ratio which is basically Robert's this is Robert Schiller's cyclically adjusted price to equity ratio really like fancy fancy word basically what you just have to know from it is is that. com Bubble Burst levels now all of that sounds like the economy seems like it potentially maybe should be setting up for an oopsy doopsy but that's not really how it works see UBS even argues Yes Ford pees are high the cape ratio is high were higher than the 10 and 20 year average on forward pees but stocks don't fall because of high valuations they fall because of earning slumps or deteriorating fundamentals however if you invest new money at high fundamentals yes it is more common to have negative returns so it's just a little bit of a warning that I'm starting to read about from different areas especially since you have now Bloomberg arguing that Amazon and Tesla have hit quote they most EV valuation in 20 years yeah well it's made a lot of people money so probably a good thing anyway this has led some people to ask me Kevin what are the cheapest sectors in the S&P 500 right now and frankly there is only one the cheapest sector in the S&P 500 right now is real estate yes because markets are really positioned at the moment for basically markets to just keep going up obviously if we hit recession and yield fall that would actually be really good for real estate and you could see real estate sit at the top and outperform everything else that's obviously unless you have a big foreclosure crisis which seems less likely because of quite frankly people have very low lock-ins on 30-year fixed rate mortgages 15year fixed rate mortgages we have the Dodd Frank Act and the ability to repay it's very very difficult to qualify for a mortgage so of course there'll be some foreclosures and short sales for those taking non-qm loans non-qualified mortgage loans basically more Fringe loans like hard money loans but normal loans might not see that sort of disaster that we saw in 2008 who knows these are just some things that I'm watching and tracking right now Bloomberg does also report an increase in Short Selling in bonds towards the end of last year all of this pretty interesting now a course member this morning asked me hey Kevin but if the market ends up falling won't the Federal Reserve just cut rates and therefore St ulate markets just like what happened in 2020 therefore why not just stay invested and don't get me wrong I'm not arguing that people don't be invested right now I'm just saying if you have new cash there is an argument to potentially holding some of that new cash on the sidelines not saying you should try to time the market that's not the right move for everybody's portfolio in fact it's more likely the wrong move for people's portfolio but when it comes to the question of will the Federal Reserve simply bailout Market like they did the last time this depends mostly because last time we had coordination between the fed and the legislature we not only printed money at the FED but we helicoptered money that we helicoptered that money away through a Congress that was really primed to giving people stimulus and unemployment pay and basically money for doing very little these sort of bailout programs I think would be highly unlikely under a republican controlled Donald Trump Administration and legislature which is probably going to be too far in the oh no we might stir inflation again Camp which actually means the pendulum could swing the other way we could be going from too much stimulus to not enough stimulus in the future and then actually face a deflationary oopsy now of course nobody knows when that kind of stuff is going to come but it is interesting seeing this coordination between the Wall Street Journal and the Federal Reserve today in other news uh AI was very bullish today mostly because uh well foxc con's results were bullish they see significant sales growth for quarter one especially are expecting AI server shipments to be stronger than they were in 2024 now that's specifically for foxcon so I kind of question like well how strong were your server shipments in 2024 and you know that's a discussion that we can dive into in a separate video but it's worth paying attention to this Le Nvidia AMD and a host of other AI stocks including super micro computer to Rock It Up in addition to this you also saw some enthusiasm extending for hydrogen stocks like Plug Power this is potentially due to treasury guidance that came out late Friday for hydrogen tax credits something to keep in mind for a company like Plug Power uh is that a lot of these tax credits may end up disappearing under Trump so pay attention to that it's also worth noting that FUBU had one heck of a day today up over 200% rising from a buck 30 at its low to over $559 why did this happen well remember that FUBU TV sued Disney to block Disney from launching this program called venue venu was supposed to be a sports focused bundle of channels between Disney and fox that they would broadcast but since FUBU primarily operates in the sports Market FUBU SU I'm oversimplifying what is going on here but let's just put it this this way FUBU had a strong enough case to get the judge to block the launch of venue the judge involved in this litigation until the litigation was resolved which basically means the judge found fuu's arguments credible enough to say yeah Disney let's wait until this resolves so what did Disney decide to do Disney decided to take ownership of 70% of FUBU in partnership with Fubu manage FUBU FUBU shareholders will own 30% of the company Disney will own that other 70% and Disney agreed to combine Hulu Plus live TV with FUBU TV so you basically just made Disney even stronger but obviously FUBU now has a much lower risk of going bankrupt or disappearing hence their market capitalization explosion today in fact their market cap right now is 1. 6 $69 billion let's go that's up over 3.

5x today so uh if we look at that valuation beforehand and divided by 3. 5x you were under a $500 million company before this announcement today you about $482 million so you saw a huge run up now keep in mind trading liquidity is pretty dang low in fuboo it's not like micro strategy where you have a lot more liquidity though sometimes more liquidity can come as insiders decide to sell and you get a little bit more of an order book that can move however when you have a thinly traded stock you do have to be careful of a momentum runup that just moves too fast for its own good and it leaves some people holding a back in the future so just be careful on thinly traded stocks speaking of thinly traded in interactive brokers sent out increasing margin requirements for micro strategy sounds like they're starting to freak out over potential margin calls in micro strategy which is interesting because the stock was up about 10 11% today which is pretty remarkable it keeps running and Bitcoin back to its 102 line watch that 102 line carefully I think that line is pretty useful you can see how we fell under that line for a period of time uh right here but the last time we broke the line fell under it broke it again we rocketed up to 108,000 breaking through and sustaining this 102 line is critical to make it up to my next extension line of 155 and if you specifically look at a stock like Tesla it's really important that Tesla maintain this 4450 line though we did end up losing that line again today in this morning's Alpha report I talked specifically about this 414 line in fact in this morning's Alpha report I also talked about how the NASDAQ 100 was likely to have priced in most of its screen for the day at the beginning of the day and to be careful because I didn't think we would see much higher through the rest of the day and if you take a look by the time the alpha report was sent right around this morning hour here we ended at roughly the same place as where we started maybe up about 30 cents on the QQQ but this sort of enthusiasm in the AM did wear off pretty quickly so just watch for that we want to see these levels sustained it is good for the NASDAQ though that we basically triple tested this now 52175 line it's actually a bullish thing for markets moving on uh Ulta just announced a new CEO in my opinion this has Buffett's influence written all over it so not a surprise given that he's got a decently large stake there when it comes to politics we did hear that Justin trud has resigned which poly Market basically predicted interesting about Justin Trudeau resigning uh is his party's kind of been falling apart since 2021 it's kind of worth noting what's been happening to Liberal power since 2021 look at this here's 2021 on the left where liberal power in Canada and you see this in the United States as well was much stronger or decently stronger maybe about Five Points stronger than conservative power but that sentiment in polls reverse bur and split especially in the middle of 2023 and throughout 2024 where basically liberal polling power has fallen to almost third place uh and conservative power climbing to the strongest levels we've seen in quite a while now a lot of folks are wondering why is this happening is this simply because Justin Trudeau was unliked after all a bunch of people were resigning from his cabinet over the last few months it seemed like every week somebody was resigning from his cabinet uh a lot of people are claiming that they were frustrated with Trudeau's uh black face from earlier in his life when he wore black or brown face for his Arabian Knights costume others other say he they're frustrated with Trudeau because of covid lockdowns others say it was him using emergency Powers against the trucker protests others say it just has to do with this Obsession of not just Justin Trudeau but liberals in general focusing too much on immigration or I should say a lack of immigration like focusing on Asylum support for anyone to come into a country climate change and identity politics and prioritizing those things over the things that people say matter to them people say what matters to them most is why don't we focus on the issues that we have at home like better schools so we can have a stronger economy and lower inflation legal immigration and secure borders so this has been leading a lot of liberals to lose support not just in Canada where now Justin Trudeau is resigning keep in mind he's just resigning as PM until a different Liberal Party PM comes in though the fate of the liberal party or the liberal Coalition may not last very long uh given this sort of sentiment so just pay attention to that a lot of people are looking at what's happening across the world and saying maybe the Progressive Movement is just over Trump has come back marking a rise in conservative ship uh we've seen a rise in uh the same thing in Canada and in Germany as well as other countries look at the IFD the alterative for deand the alternative for Deutschland uh and the fact that now 75% of European governments are led by or include a right of Center party in its leading Coalition people are saying this is all happening why because of populism which frankly this should be very simple to understand what is populism hey let's focus on our own problems first our own economy first our own people first and our own people's ability to get jobs first today the Wall Street Journal argues that the workingclass voters feel that Elites academics Bankers politicians are just disconnected and don't care about us that they don't care about fighting for us small business owners small business entrepreneurs or people just trying to make a buck and make a living it's no surprise that we're now in an age of potentially population collapse Elon Musk talks about that all the time and we can talk more about that later but basically this might be the first century that populations have declined ever in the history of the Earth for humans since the black death in 1300 kind of crazy uh anyway uh social media by the way this is my opinion May accelerate some of the divisions that we're seeing but I personally don't think that social media making the divisions uh apparent is a bad thing I I I do think because ultimately I think things that need to be exposed should be exposed but I do think that social media makes it harder to heal after issues have been uncovered because everybody kind of gets a little bit more entrenched in their places and so healing is really the hardest part and and it's really difficult for politicians to help heal a community because usually they just pour gas on their enemies and like I mean that sounds graphic but and people just sort of bag on each other more so anyway uh this same thing by the way that you've seen in the United States in Germany and Canada you're seeing in France you're seeing in the United Kingdom it's happening all over the place uh center right parties are focusing on helping people feel like somebody's fighting for them the downside of this is it could lead to potential gridlock and we've seen some of that already in the United States consider the following yes Donald Trump and JD Vance were certified uh as President and Vice President elect however the first action of this new Congress we have to elect Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House in the first ballot it did get done it didn't take 15 attempts like it took last time to get Kevin McCarthy elected and his speakership didn't last anyway but there were some problems this was not easy going Republicans could only afford to lose one vote versus what Democrats had and since six Republicans abstained and three voted for someone else other than Mike Johnson it took some real convincing to get the rest of the Republicans to vote for Mike Johnson now the reason they pulled it off was because if they didn't then Democrats would have chosen hakeim Jeff and Republicans fear that Democrats would have blocked the certification of Donald Trump and JD Vance kind of like four years ago so like all we don't want them but we'll take them okay now there's a lot to do like the budget the debt sealing deficit spending Ukraine immigration energy bills the extension of the Trump tax bills uh tax cuts from 2017 which expire this year next year and you know Trump has been talking about wanting one major package to get everything done like a border Bill Energy bill tax Bill and everything together but now there are rumors that they might even be open to doing a two Bill approach where they split some priorities maybe split taxes and immigration into different bills who knows but some of that hardliners ship if you look closely enough is already starting to come so that's going to make 2025 really really critical for Trump because you really only got 2025 to pound legislation through in 2026 everything everyone does is going to be focused on the midterm elections 2025 is really the time to get things done now of course Elon Musk adds to this conversation by saying had this election not been won by Donald Trump civilization would be lost another one that Elon Musk adds is in response to Johnny ascola who on X writes Elon Musk is rapidly becoming the largest spreader of disinformation in human history hijacking political de debates in the process Elon Musk promptly replies Fu to which Luna then replies sorry Elon I couldn't resist 1229 2024 please post a bit more positive informative content Elon Musk 8 Days Later Fu Michael bar the vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve has step down voluntarily now I find this actually really interesting because Michael bar is somebody who said he would stay in his position at the Federal Reserve somebody who wants more banking regulation and banking supervision he kind of promised that he would stay at the Federal Reserve and he would sue to stay there if he needed to what actually happened is he's now agreed to step down so it kind kind of makes you wonder wait a minute did you think you were going to get fired by Donald uh because all of a sudden you're doing the opposite of what you said you were going to do which is quite interesting so a lot of people are wondering could this be a leading indicator of what happens with Jerome Powell where Jerome Powell says I absolutely won't step down and then all of a sudden you end up stepping down anyway oops in other news CES is back uh it starts on Tuesday Jensen Hong that's tomorrow Jensen Wong is expected to give the keynote address there from Nvidia a lot of people think he's going to talk about Blackwell who knows if he will uh AI devices are obviously expected to be the showstopper there PC AI updates blah blah blah blah at the same time India's government is now wanting to issue helicopter money to companies like apple to move production from China to India this has previously been challenging due to fragmented politics uh in India basically like you know trying to get cities to work together to get things done in India has been very very difficult well uh the Indian government is now trying to step in and simplify and streamline this process and throw billions of dollars at the problem as well to make it happen this obviously while China's economy is not doing so hot anyway D is also rebranding their computers now to Dell like their laptop Series Dell Dell Pro and Dell Pro Max which a lot of people now say is Dell just copying Apple Dell says nobody owns the word Pro or Max so they're just simplifying their brands they're also now authorizing uh the first AMD chips ever to be used in Dell computers which they say will be better for an AI future okay then uh what else do we have oh we had the first H5 N1 death in the US it was in Louisiana someone over 65 years old with underlying health conditions apparently they were exposed to a backyard flock of birds and the health briefing said please don't touch dead birds or dead animals or even sick animals no human-to-human transmission has been evidenced also in Louisiana specifically New Orleans where we had the Bourbon Street Rampage the assistant district attorney there just shot themselves Saturday night and died he was 34 years old and joined the bar in 2023 that person apparently wasn't working on the Bourbon Street case because they specialized in sexual assault cases but people are still wondering what is going on in New Orleans so with this we should bring up a dad joke of the day the dad joke of the day is what do you call a Ford Fiesta that has run out of gas the answer a Ford Siesta okay with that let's take a look at a bonus The Babylon B has awarded the worst vehicle by the National Association of terrorist car bombers and the metal goes to the Cyber truck Tesla cybertruck voted worst vehicle by the National Association of terrorist car bombers also sent out another Daily Wealth email I was talking about a viral post circul ating by the CEO of loom the CEO of loom sold his company for just under a billion dollars which is really cool you know nobody knows how much he actually net especially because you know he may not have owned 100% of the company and then he got to pay taxes and stuff so it doesn't matter the point is he's probably got hundreds of millions of dollars and now there's a viral post going around from his blog about how he feels confused about what's next he feels empty he feels uninspired he feels like everything's a haze and a side quest he almost s numb and so that's where in my Daily Wealth email yesterday which remember you can sign up for that over at M kevin. com along with the alpha report at M kevin.