with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. The presidential race has reset, but how much has it reset in terms of the gender gap among voters? That is what our Harry Enten has been looking at for you.
This morning. And he's here with us now. So set the scene.
How are men and women responding to Harris? What's the big reason why Harris is gaining in the polls? Yeah.
All right, it's the gender gap. It's something we've spoken about in politics for a long period of time, and we're really seeing it here. All right.
Let's take a look at the national polls versus Democrat versus Trump margin. And I want to point out this is average across the same pollsters. Look at Biden versus Trump.
Women and men. What we see as the gender gap is working. And Donald Trump's advantage yields a nine point advantage among men against Joe Biden and Joe Biden.
Only how to vote four point advantage among women. But take a look. Now look at how the race has changed.
Instead of having a four point advantage among women as Biden, good look at Harris has advantage. It leaps up to 11 points. In fact, men haven't changed their voting patterns at all, at least in the national polls.
A nine point advantage for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, a nine point advantage against Kamala Harris. What has occurred is women voters are flocking to the Democratic ticket. Look at that.
Look at that. Four points versus 11 points. That is the reason that Kamala Harris has turned this race around.
You said this is nationally, right? This is nationally. What about in swing states?
What's going on in the swing states. So let's take a look at those Great Lakes battleground states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This is among registered voters.
What do we see here? It's a very similar picture. Biden versus Trump women.
Biden has a little bit a larger advantage in those Great Lakes battleground states, scoring those New York Times going to college polls at ten points. But again, that surge among women, we're seeing the same thing in those battleground states as we saw nationally. Kamala Harris, up 70 points among women men.
Very little change. Donald Trump doing a little bit worse, but still a very clear advantage. But the same story in the swing states as we see nationally, the gender gap was working for Donald Trump against Joe Biden.
And now it's working against him, against Kamala Harris. Is this the same smaller or bigger that? Can you, like put it in context?
I mean, is it the same that we normally see? Yeah. All right.
So let's take a look. Let's go through time particularly here. All right.
This is the Democrat versus the Republican for president. Again this of these key great Lake battleground states Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 2020 and 2016 are final. These are the exit polls 2024 is now.
Look at the women margin. Look at what's going on here. Look how much better Kamala Harris is doing.
Among women voters, there was 11 points Hillary Clinton back in 2016, 13 points in 2020. Look at this margin now 17 points. Interestingly the gender gap becoming wider over time.
It's much wider this year than what we're normally expecting because in fact, Donald Trump is winning men voters by 15 points. That's better than he did in 2020, in these same states. And it's even better than he did in 2016, or just slightly better.
But the bottom line here is Kamala Harris is winning this race right now, at least in these key battleground states, because of what she's doing. Women voters, women voters are energized and is the reason that Kamala Harris turned a deficit that Joe Biden had into a lead. And also, just a quick we talked about the we do not know, because there's a lot that goes into it that there that this is because she's a woman that's just there support for her.
Correct. We don't know that. We don't necessarily know the reason.
We just know she's doing better. Women voters significantly better than Joe Biden was and better than either Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton did back in 2016. Fascinating.
Great stuff here. Thank you so much. Thank you Sarah.
All right. For more on this, I'm joined by Lance Traver, former spokesperson for Republican Governor Doug Burgum, 2024 presidential campaign and Democratic strategist and consultant Simon Rosenberg. Thank you, gentlemen, for being here.
as of July 2024, prices are 20% higher than they were in February of 2020, which is people say, look, it's crushing our personal economies. So, Simon, what does Kamala Harris need to do today in her first big policy speech, which is on the economy? Yeah, I mean, I think she has to remind folks how much better the economy is today than it was when we came into office.
And to lay out her agenda for how she wants to continue to create growth and opportunity for the American people. Her basic phrase about the economy is we want people not just to get by, but to get ahead, which I think is a very powerful way of talking about the economy. And today she's spending a lot of time talking about how she wants to continue to lower costs and makes life more affordable for working people.
It's a very sensible, commonsense agenda that she's going to be laying out today. I think the new thing that is going to be that's a little bit different from what Biden had been doing, is a big emphasis on housing and lowering housing costs by building more housing in America to make housing more affordable across the country. I think that's going to be a really key part of her discussion today.
Langston. She needs to differentiate herself, in your opinion, from from Biden. Well, I think the first thing we need to remember is how we got here.
And you talked about it just now. Prices are up over 20%. She and Joe Biden are the reason that's here.
Today is the anniversary of the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act, which, as we all know, dumped a ton of money into the economy and lit inflation on fire. So that's first and foremost, this is like the arsonist calling the fire department today. And look, a couple of her proposals, no taxing on tips and and expanding the child tax credit are things that the Trump campaign has already called for.
But what's most disconcerting to me about this are these, like, Soviet style price controls that she's going to call for an answer like, you know, hey, the Soviets called. They want their price controls back. I mean, that's about the price controls on drugs, on food, on food.
She's going to call for government intervention, price controls on food. That's something we tried in the 70s. It didn't work.
Mean the Soviets called. They want their economic policies back. I find that very disconcerting.
I think it's something voters should pay attention to. let's talk about what Trump has been saying. He he had a press conference yesterday.
It began, pretty tame talking about the economy, staying on strip. He talked about the high price of things again, everything from housing to food. But he then spent a lot of time on personal attacks.
Here's some of that. I think I'm entitled to personal attacks. I don't have a lot of respect for virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants, but actually, beyond the number of 100%, it's a much higher number than that.
Kamala is reportedly proposing communist price controls and Maduro plan like something straight out of Venezuela. She actually called me weird. He's weird.
She's weird in her policy, 100% of jobs has not gone just to migrants. All right. this seems to be a strategy to show that he's doing press conferences to show that Kamala Harris is not doing press conferences.
Axios put it very succinctly this way, that the Trump campaign is hoping his press conferences will goad Harris into more unscripted appearances and interviews, where they believe that vice the vice president will stumble. So far, though, Harris isn't taking the bait. All right, so are these pressures doing what he intends for them to do?
Lance? Taylor. No.
If you know what two press conferences he's done in the last week, how many has she done? Zero. They won't even commit to doing one by the end of August.
And I think that's a travesty for the voters in this country. But she is not stepping out and taking questions from reporters unscripted, not in front of a teleprompter, not with a scheduled list of reporters to call on. I mean, we're 80 some days out of an election, and we have a presidential candidate who isn't willing to step in front of the media and answer questions.
What does that tell you in terms of what they're doing now? Look, I get it. I get the play and what they're trying to do, but at one point, this honeymoon is going to come to an end.
Post Labor Day, voters are going to start keying in, and I think they're really going to start looking at these candidates closely, their economic policies and where they stand. So I'm not sure the strategy can play out post Labor Day for sure. But Lance points out to in all Simon.
But when you watch these press conferences and the way that they go, do they help Trump or is it backfiring? No, I mean, Donald Trump's performance in the last few weeks have been some of the most disastrous events that we've seen in modern American political history. I mean, he's dropped six points in the polls in the last few weeks.
Kamala Harris now has a lead in all the battleground states. we are you know, the election has changed, and I think it's changed in part because the with Biden struggles now not being in the in the news every day, we've gotten to see a lot more about Donald Trump. And it's been scary stuff.
I mean, some of the stuff he said yesterday reminded us of how fundamentally unfit and unwell he is. And so I do think this has been a really rough patch for the Trump campaign. I think the JD Vance pick was also something that's dragging them down, and somehow they've got to change the fundamental dynamic of this race.
They're bringing in a whole new team to try to shake things up. Now, we've learned yesterday and they need to do that because right now we're winning and they're losing. And if they don't somehow fundamentally change the trajectory of this election, they're going to lose the election.
I got to ask you about this investigation that was done here at CNN, showing the secretly recorded video of one of the architects of project 2025. He's also a former cabinet member for the Trump administration and the director of the RNC team that rewrote the party's, official platform. Trump says he doesn't know anything about project 2025.
He said that publicly several times. But here is what one of the architects of project 2025 said about it. Notwithstanding, I expect to be here ten more times from the rally.
The president, you know, distancing himself from the left's boogeyman, a project 2025. Yeah. and you're not worried about that?
I worry about it. And so I see what he's doing is just very, very, conscious, distancing himself from my brand. He's very supportive of what we do, and, and know that we have an all manner of things that we do that's, you know, even unrelated to project 2025.
This is all about politics. He says at one point, Simon, I mean, how does Trump keep saying he doesn't know anything about this? I mean, his agenda is project 2025.
There is no he can try all day to distance himself from it. But what he's laid out in Simon Lands, do you agree with that? That is the same agenda.
Simon. You made this. This.
You know, quip that it is about 2025 and his agenda is. Lance, do you agree? Look, the president says he doesn't know anything about 2025.
We take him at his word. The media lets Kamala Harris walk back every single one of her positions every day. So I think we should take the president at his word.
But he doesn't know anything about it. All right. Simon Rosenberg and Lance Trevor, thank you both so much for talking through this with me.
Appreciate it.
