Crypto Breakout - How To Trade Strength

Hello and welcome through episode of Casual Friday I'm here with the duck as always the show is brought to you by woo links available in the description below so don basically you're a Bard [ __ ] who fumbled generational wealth on Dogecoin again any corrections before we get rolling no I mean that's just accurate perfect we'll get to the alt coins of course but happy BTC alltime High uh hopefully for real this time cuz I'm tired of these scam alltime High breakouts just like Sunday already uh that would be nice it's funny last week we

talked about how like previous all-time high well recent alltime High breaks have been kind of scammy like the one in uh 2021 very slightly the recent uh one in March that broke the 2021 high was scammy so after two like distinct alltime High scams don't you think that's enough and it's time to break out from this like six seven month Consolidation it's actually kind of crazy right like we're trading like 2% higher than we were before got president and Trump announced that he would buy a bunch of like Bitcoin as the President of the United

States like that's insane right like the curse is real and I I actually don't think I don't think it's going to get much better I I made this argument yesterday when I casual Wednesday or whatever it's called normal Wednesday I guess was on Wednesday which was on Thursday um that I think Bitcoin is just trading more and more like gold basically and if you look at gold that's done kind of shitty all-time high breakouts for the last decades it feels like um and we're kind of doing the same which is I don't think it's necessar

the end of the world right like just maturing as an asset but obviously the the the breakouts of old were so much more fun when you had a breakout and then you were up 40% the Next day like that's so much more fun than having a breakout and you're up 1% and everyone's euphoric already like it's a little bit different now than it used to yeah you kind of need to adjust for market cap essentially it feels like yeah uh and have different expectations for what that looks like I think like a lot of Traders

and investors are still indexing based on you know 2017 20K market cap breakout uh you know that type of stuff and or or even earlier Versions and they just extrapolate the percentages and go from there uh I I don't think that's necessarily the best model uh but still in terms of just purely from a technical perspective you know a breakout from a 7 month consolidation um whatever upside there is on BTC just helps the whole crypto market so I think it's just a natural byproduct of markets as a whole that as the you know the

Big Orange coin gets larger in market cap uh you can't expect It to have the same multiples but you will be able to find those same multiples in the longer taale of the crypto market like meme coins and proper [ __ ] coins and that type of stuff so it's still there I just think it kind of moves away from BTC itself and I also think that's like normal and not bearish if that makes sense I mean at the end of the day you basically you have very little risk in Bitcoin nowadays like just straight

up Your risk of Bitcoin going to zero is almost zero uh it used to not be like there was multiple times in crypto history where I think Bitcoin could have been killed right like if the US really tried or just generally like if there was any polit political will um or just by the wrong people dumping at the wrong time uh or like just people not buying could have killed Bitcoin like multiple times during its during its time now that that's gone Right you have way less risk but obviously like every time you have less

risk you also have less upside like that's that's kind of like it it correlates with each other right like however much risk you take um uh like if it if the risk is high there's probably more upside to be had and if the risk is low there's less upside um sometimes you get situations where there's little risk and quite a bit of upside and I think we've had that in the Last couple years um but at this point I totally agree with you that we're kind of in a in a state of the market where

it's kind of like I mean little upside in Bitcoin but you have the you have um very little risk and then you have the or coins where you have a lot of risk because there's almost a guarantee that they're going to go to zero but because there's so much risk and because they're so much smaller you also have the upside to to kind of balance that out I think The good thing is the the idea of sort of more limited upside needs to be qualified that's for us by Crypton native standards and by previous CLE

standards right but the cool thing is the ETFs you know if you look at the ibit chart for example it just looks amazing right cuz they don't have all the previous [ __ ] in it and by Boomer standards if they make what we call low reward or a conservative return or whatever for them that's going to make Their entire portfolio even in like a halfast BTC cycle right so we ESS again maybe get to create a perpetual motion machine where you know the the Boomer Trad fight ETFs just big bid up BTC and they're

super comfortable with their returns which by their standards are really high but by Crypt native standards uh aren't super sexy and while they're lifting the market on the BTC front we go to the long tail of AI coins meme coins cult coins shitcoins defi Renaissance whatever and make our money there and everyone wins I mean that sounds pretty convenient I mean everyone wins until until the until it stops yeah I mean the Music Stops at some point like that's the funny part right and this is kind of like how the oins work like the music

stop at some point and then everyone's just [ __ ] but up to that point everyone wins which just I mean that's just how crypto is right that's why people call it the Ponzi and I mean I often times I struggle to kind of for God's sake disagree okay so it's like gold but it's also a Ponzi yeah but I mean at the end of the day like what isn't the Ponzi right when you look at things like the financial markets generally like Ponzi like struct es in a law of them right like if it's

not a security is it a Ponzi um I think you can make that argument uh quite convincingly right like if you don't have anything like a lot of the stocks Out there too right like when they if they don't pay you dividends like and and there's nothing that actually comes out of the thing it's just stock market like it's technically just an altcoin too right like it has nothing like the the price of that stock has nothing to do with um with with the real world in a sense so like that argument like yes we

have a lot of pones but you can look elsewhere and you're G to find like stuff that doesn't really make much Sense to it's just stuff is not a p Ponzi unless people kind of realize it's a Ponzi then it becomes a Ponzi all of a sudden um it's like the wave what is it the observer effect in physics yeah once it starts being observed it's it starts to behave differently it feels like the wave particle yeah yeah yeah yeah exactly um but yes again very like it just feels like the market is super split

in so far as reasonably everyone is cheerleading BTC as they should Because that's a prerequisite for alts to do like really really well and for the you know longer taale to start getting slammed but at the same time I don't think the average like Crypton native participant uh holds much BTC and is certainly not overweight BTC uh the common pattern tends to be like okay BTC looks good uh so I'm just going to add Leverage and adding leverage to BTC essentially means buying alt coins um and again I think that can keep working As long

as there is still a BTC buyer right even if it's not the crypto native people I think we run into problems if that logic is applied without a BTC buyer like hey this thing looks decent the entire market and all the inflows pile into shitcoins and then BTC starts to look weak I think that historically is a pretty bad and bearish Signal uh but if as long as the real world the boomers are willing to bid up BTC then you know as long as that boat is being Lifted and there's a rising tide we we

can sort of get away with uh the classic oh BTC looks good let me go buy something else um yeah that works until it doesn't but I I think it's been the prevailing theme throughout a lot of this uptrend I just feel you know we talked about it last week the idea that BTC ETF buyers have like bailed out a lot of Crypton native froth and I think that's true I I truly believe that um and so if if it continues now with a Better regulatory landscape Better Price action Etc then I mean thank you

very much right yeah it's quite funny like every single cycle cryptos like the crypto space finds a way to reward really dumb Behavior like like this time it's the ETF basically bailing everyone out and you've seen a lot of really dumb kind of like just generally dumb Behavior being rewarded a lot um and I think like you said it's because of the BT uh the D ETF Bailing people out last cycle you had like the the whole fraud thing going on right fraud based credit cycle basically exactly yeah and then the cycle before you just

had like infinite people coming in bailing the people out that were already in right like that that was like the 20 2017 18 cycle where crypto was like went from basically not being known to mainstream in one cycle I think that was 2017 18 like everyone at least heard Of crypto after that right and like every single cycle we find a way to reward dumb behavior and extreme risk taking uh this time I think it is the ETF people just just buying making making sure that the the crypto people aren't losing too much money uh

that said like the the the crypto natives the the only place that they've really won this cycle is in Bitcoin and in memes right and the memes are like very PVP I think like there's more people that Actually lost money on memes but like those have been the only two good markets in crypto besides maybe Soul um I think Soul's probably the biggest one where crypto natives actually just straight up one um but the the old coins as a whole because we always say all coins right but the all coins as a whole haven't really

done so well uh Litecoin still at $70 I remember uh how I sold Litecoin at Hundred something um at uh the beginning of the of the cycle like I I bought it at like I I think like 60 sold it at 100 and it's trading now at 70 and Bitcoin is up more than twice um like from where it was back then so for example like these old old coins these like the Forgotten ones basically and even the ones of last like like avac and like a bunch of other stuff they've basically not really participated

in any of it um it's just Been it's just been Bitcoin uh it's been meme s p Solana yeah it's like the barbell portfolio meme you're either with the Boomers and you've been riding the ETF wave or you acknowledge that there you know there was going to be that Rising tide and then you position in strength which has been memes pretty much all year uh I think at least that part is relatively Trader friendly it's not like we've had four massive rotations the Entire way up and if you m Ed any of them you got

completely [ __ ] it's pretty much been the same Fe theme consistently throughout the entire year obviously what makes it difficult is stomaching that volatility and also depends on your definition of memes right because if you're positioned in the wrong memes then on a risk adjusted sort of returns basis or you know the profile of that type of portfolio is absolutely miserable uh but if you view It like sectorally then if you correctly identified BTC plus memes as the barbell portfolio which has been the case for quite a while now you haven't had to do

too much uh in terms of sectors at least now within the sector you if you picked wrong I mean God help you right you've had to Balan like 10 million times that's a that's a problem a lot of the memes that were strong early on are massively lagging behind now so the intra sector rotations are pretty Punishing but the sector to the inter sector rotations have been basically non-existent it's a bit of a mix bag like if you locked into the memes you're good but if you avoided memes and thought Oh everything else is going

to catch up and you know I'm holding Blue Chips from 2021 and [ __ ] like that you've just gotten [ __ ] you know and the Crypton version of that is up until very recently just being Mega overweight e the entire time um as I'm going to Make a call and say say that that's going to change a little bit now that we're gonna get Trump uh I I generally um and I mean this will be no surprise to anyone listening like you remember like how you made made fun of me for the E

the E posting last week um I think that's that's coming like back now that we like we're going to get Trump because with Trump as a president right like I said this yesterday and I I mean it's very true like he rugged me on an nftd Right um he he like basically rugged me on an nft the guy is gonna do stuff that the previous admin would call illegal in crypto like I'm almost certain of it um and I think it's going to be largely like defi stuff that um he would touch like the the

nfts defi like that's palatable I don't think like a sitting us president's going to NE necessarily do memes he might actually launch a mem coin but that's not going to be good for memes as a whole if anything that's Going to be good for his meme coin um but just generally I think he's going to be much more lenient and whoever he's going to pick basically is going to be much more lenient on crypto as a whole and the if you remember back like in 2021 and just generally afterwards the problem that defi had was

regulation right like it was regulation it was kind of them getting Suited left and right and I think that's not going to happen in in the next four years or if it's Going to happen um uh just much less severe and I think that's going to basically lead to a bunch of people doing stuff um that they would wouldn't have de otherwise which I think is going to be like a a general sector rotation where people are just gonna go from useless [ __ ] which is memes right but it's good to trade to things

that they deem useful like that you can actually sell to a broader populist and I think that would be like def5 Stuff so I think def5 is probably a good betat going into uh going into Trump whether that's going to be on Soul e or whatever uh I don't necessarily want to say I would go with Eve personally but that's just personal preference um but I think the defi stuff is going to get much more interesting and um I think that's honestly like for crypto that's a good thing like the more security like crypto products

become the more useful they are at the end end of the day um But people didn't want to go to jail that's why they didn't run that Playbook uh the meme guys meme guys they they did IL illegal stuff anyway and they didn't really care so I don't think that's gonna change too much under Trump they're just going to do the same thing right like it's not like the like there was any uh any fear of anything really on the meme sector people were just doing wild stuff breaking laws uh didn't really give a [

__ ] so I think that Sector is going to stay the same but I think the def sector is going to change just based on based on that development and I think that would be bullish for defi um do you feel like this might be a mid curve type of argument because essentially it requires that the strongest sector stops being the strongest sector right and I mean it's like quite a big rotation implicit in that argument um is that a risk that you sort of just basically you know the Strong stuff keeps being strong uh

and this is just sort of cop to midwit rotate into something that's beening all year I mean I could see mem still being the strongest sector but I think def5 is going to pick up a lot uh and for people that don't really like for example me I'm not really interested in the memes too much right like the the the one thing that you can interest me in on the meme front is Dogecoin right and that's that's a stretch already like I I have Trouble holding that for too long um whereas on the defi side

of things like I that's much more interesting to me like if there's actually going to be something useful in crypto [ __ ] yeah I want to be on board there's very little uh in in my eyes useful things in crypto uh and if you then get something that's actually quite cool that actually interests me that actually works I'd must rather be in that sector and I think a lot of uh people like a lot of Money that's been around for longer uh feels the same way right and there like there's there's there's much more

space in the defi sector to invest and to just kind of like put a bunch of money in than there's in the meme sector I think um so I I think basically it's just you have Bitcoin very very like not risky at all and then you have like stuff like e and defi at that point which is risky um don't get me wrong like it's risky but not nearly as risky as the memes so you Basically you just go out right like the the further out towards memes you go the more risk you have uh

the more returns you can get um but I think defi is going to be nice Middle Ground where you can actually just like place stuff that is interesting um and then just uh avoid trading dog [ __ ] and I think that's that'd be nice like that could get me interested again in actually actively trading um something because I'm the one thing I'm tired of is just trading dog [ __ ] all the time like that's not fun like at some point you want to have something that's actually cool um and that could be defi

so I'm I'm excited for that okay so strength relative to itself at least even if it doesn't neily Eclipse meme coins uh yeah I mean generally I think basically strength in relationship or like related to like basically all the other old coins um and then memes might like some memes might Still outperform but I think uh it would actually in my eyes it's it's a very obvious bet it's basically like Bitcoin before the ETF right you remember the discussions we had where we were both like hey bitcoin's getting an ETF like this is such an

obvious thing right like why the [ __ ] would you bet against that and I think now that Trump is coming uh with defi I think you basically have the same situation as long as the market stays up and that's a big Ifig if godamn it I mean because it's always big if like look look at look at the [ __ ] world right now like it's [ __ ] wild like you have war in Europe you're gonna get War like Israel Iran you're probably gonna get like escalation there we're about to get Germany UK

If you keep barding I swear to God I mean I'm not b stting right now no no no I'm just saying like there's a lot of there's a lot of risk factors now that we used to not have um and I think That's probably in the next few years going to continue like just geopolitical stress China and the US I think it's going to get much worse the relationships there um not because necessarily because of trump this always funny like people were like saying like hey Trump sucks so much with the terrorists and like that

he put in against China uh on his first like like on his first presidency right um where the the Democrats were like hey like This is such a dumb move and then Biden came into power and he kept all of it right um so I I don't think that's because of of trump necessarily like something that he's gonna do but just generally how how the world is set up right now um China is kind of trying to be a world leader America like the US is one um I think there's going to be like a

bunch of geopolitical stress so you always have to kind of be like hey uh I I'm bu tarting here but you always have To be nimble because a [ __ ] of Geo like a shitload of geopolitical stuff can come up I think it's just the world we live in right now like everything send and then something something stupid happens somewhere in the world and then everything nukes and then it sends again um just how it is so like as long as long as uh the General market stays up I think defi is going to

be really good bet in the next four years and even if the market nukes I think it's going to Be a better place than most other things to be in yeah well crime is legal now basically in crypto so yeah those tokens on the switched on yeah you saw what they could do with a little bit of crime like I mean obviously a lot of crime when you like just crypto specific right but now you can do like non- crypto specific aot I mean crime is bullish because fraud is a type of crime and fraud

facilitates credit Bubbles and credit bubbles facilitate price going up Very aggressively I think basically we're setting up for something like that again I [ __ ] love it I mean it's just how crypto does like and we talked about this last cycle right with when when Luna did the the badshit insane move to kind of back itself with like Bitcoin we were like but what if Bitcoin goes down right you remember that like the whole discussion we had yeah it feels like we're taking crazy pills at the time Yeah yeah and we were like yeah

how does this make any sense like back then and people were like n dude Luna is just going up in well what was funny is we live that in bitmex like the story of bitm is people being long crypto using long Bitcoin crypto using Bitcoin as collateral like we all know how that ends you know this wasn't it's like there wasn't a sample size for that yeah and that's exactly my argument like we managed to do this every cycle and People always like this has to be the last time like Luna implosion has to be

the last time and then there's like a million other like times where we've had this exact scenario before where we've managed to kind of like lever to the tits the entire cycle a sailor is kind of like on a on a low risk basis doing the same thing right but he's doing it smart he's he's staying kind of low leverage at to an extent um but basically sailor Style just someone else That does it like that gets a little bit more greedy and I think that's almost guaranteed to happen uh it's just how crypto functions

right people want this thing to happen like everyone is that obviously yeah I mean the the funny part is like you don't want to sell before it you want want to sell while Happ yeah yeah of course yes like you want to you want to have all the price appreciation of the fraud but you want to get out before the fraud kind of gets exposed For fraud and I think that's basically going to be the next four years um tether example in many cases right you had people being like Oh well te tether's manipulating the

BTC prices upwards I mean they were blatantly wrong but if you really believe that then I mean your first action leas as a Trader should be to buy that [ __ ] shouldn't it with the fraudulent price insensitive buyer who's having real Market impact and sort of ride the coattails that Seems way more appropriate yeah I mean that's the way to go you see fraud you join in I mean it it's I mean it sucks like from a human perspective right you see something that you think really shouldn't be happening um and you're like the

your your human instinct is like like this is [ __ ] up but your Trader Instinct has to be like hey how long is this going to go for because those are legit like the biggest opportunities price-wise that you can Have it's just um obviously not a good thing generally I think fraud and all that stuff obviously is not a good thing but for a Trader it kind of is like because and this is why crypto has been such a good Market to trade because you've had so much fraud and so much like illegal [

__ ] happening pump and dumps whatever because basically what it means is that something that is inherently kind of decent which is crypto gets pumped up like 10x to the Valuation that it should be and then you can sell as a Trader and then it nukes 90% because it kind of just goes back to where it would have been and then overcorrects even sometimes um even lower than that 90% And then you have the opportunity to pay to buy something like 90% discount 80% discounted right so you have the 10x to the upside that goes

much further than it really realistically should and then you also have the downside where goes much lower Than it should because fraud blew up which was 16k for example last cycle like it really shouldn't have gone there again but we had so much fraud that blew up that we kind of manage to and then you have both sides like both extremes um the only people that really lose are the ones that are attracted whenever whenever the fraud is at its peak right those are the ones that get really [ __ ] and that's been retail

every single time uh it's why I think retails Not really come in this cycle like you don't really or at least it's very quiet um in comparison to previous Cycles because retails come in 2017 got [ __ ] and then they came in 2021 and got [ __ ] and now they're just kind of like Hey we're not GNA fold for this [ __ ] again um but but they will I mean if Trump keeps pushing this right which I mean it seems like he will uh they're GNA have to I mean price is also

the best Advertiser for these things isn't It like yeah um you know no matter how hard you may have been burned in the past it's very hard to get over the impulse of greed and if things go quickly enough and high enough and you know people around you who haven't been burned previously is starting to make money you kind of just fold at some point and give in against your better senses um ta Don don't know if you've heard of that thing oh we do that to on the show yeah sometimes yeah when it's Not

philosophical sophistry and other [ __ ] um so let's say someone hasn't been following this chop for the last seven months and I think that's actually a pretty decent frame of mind to have periodically like if you following the market very closely you might have some uh biases biases baked into it and you might just uh view things as a participant who's been sort of chopped up for the last six seven months so sometimes I think at least weekly uh It's nice to just delete all of your lines all of your levels and just take

a fresh look from the high time frames and kind of re-anchor uh and realign yourself with what's going on I think that's generally a useful exercise uh and in this instance someone came to you and said look you know I know some basic ta stuff whatever haven't been following uh crypto stuff for a while uh this is looks pretty sick you know they'll say that BTC was ranging for 6 seven months And has now made a new uh alltime High they'll look on the weekly and make a similar argument that you know since September you

know August September has just been making higher highs and higher lows in the context of a six seven month consolidation uh and now it's breaking out you know same with the daily time frame you could draw like a really big range if you wanted to and now it's breaking out again with the it's not just a breakout from range to break out From a 6 seven month range so ordinarily at least in ta terms you would argue you know longer consolidation the longer the expansion as as a rough rule of thumb and so in this

case it just looks like clear skies uh technically and a better regulatory environment and so on and so forth um so you know they're like Don you've been you've been here since 2017 etc etc this is my technical view why shouldn't I be Allin at the moment now obviously the Allin part is hyperbolic But do you agree with that Baseline assessment uh yeah I I mean you you obviously never should be like if you if you have to ask me right like if you if you can't make up your own mind you come to me

and you have to ask you really shouldn't be all in anything right um first first off like don't like if you have no idea what the [ __ ] you're doing don't don't just put all your eggs in one basket I think makes a lot of sense but that said like it does look really Good like if you're on the monthly time frame right now um like when you have these kind of big consolidations that break to the upside and it kind of looks like it is currently obviously the monthly Clos is in 22 days

so that's a long time away but it doesn't really make much sense I I had a bunch of people yesterday ask me like hey um what if this is a false breakout and I'm like dude this went up like one or two% since Trump got Elected um and it's kind of broken out and you really shouldn't assume it's a false breakout and this we repeat this over and over and over again but people just really want a fade breakouts like just don't assume it's a false break breakout until it's actually a false breakout right like

it it doesn't really pay you uh to be like hey I I'm the first one that spotted this false breakout um and now I shorted 76k uh instead of like 71k when it's actually like a confirmed fault breakout uh like false breakout I think that's just like a relative simple ex like simple exercise to not get [ __ ] over by like high time frame breakouts is just don't assume something's false until it's actually false and you're going to have plenty of time to to be bearish if it's actually false breakout just look back on

on 2021 right where we like if you're on the monthly time frame We we had the 58k close in in APR April and March April and then it it nuked it came back up made a higher close technically started breaking out and then it didn't and closed back down below it and that's like that's where I was like okay this is this really shouldn't have happened uh I'm going to be on the defensive now which is like 10K from the alltime high rate and you could be like oh like 10K is so much but in

in relative terms It's nothing and if it would have broken out and went up like 20 30k I would have hated to to kind of miss that back then um and I think the same is kind of true for where we are right now so basically assume it's it's true uh this is breaking out um be bull bullish if it doesn't like if this month doesn't close above like the prior High which is 72k I think we like we could be in in the same situation that we were in 2021 I see very little reason

for that to be the Case like with Trump pumping crypto and all that kind of stuff like it just seems a little bit far-fetched to kind of assume that we're going to do the same thing again um but like if that happens I I would kind of have to assume so because we would R trace the entire Trump pump that's great actually Trump pump I love it yeah good but so basically you don't want to see that um but un unless that happens I mean I'm just going to tell like I'm just going To be

like be bullish until until it's proven otherwise and for me right now what I could see happen um because the breakout is very weak right I think you agree with this right like the breakout you would have assumed that it goes up more on a trump presidency um I don't know how you think know I think it's weird I think there's just a lot of there's a lot of churn at the moment because a large part of those positions were essentially pricing in a Trump win so there's understand I had so many I had so

many people argue with me on this because I made a tweet like two days before I was like the reason why it's like just chopping and not going so well is because people are pricing in Trump win um and therefore like if it goes up it's going to go up less than you would otherwise think and people are arguing me about this no I don't think that's an insane thing to say that's not the same as saying the entire thing is Trump win now it's s the news and it's [ __ ] over right it's

just a partial explanation for some of the flows we're seeing completely grounded in reality like I think just a bunch of crypto natives like and this is true right like 80% of crypto thought Trump was going to win right and they were all positioned for it and then like now it's gone up and a bunch of people are taking profit doesn't mean it has to go back down it's just to explain why it's sluggish Because yes the non Crypt native marginal buyers are going to be slower than the crypto native buyers who are positioned for

this already that that seems has it it doesn't seem insane to me is my position there okay good because I I was feeling like I was taking crazy pills because I had like three or four like bigger accounts sub tweeted me with the Tweet being like Don lost it but crypto like bitcoin's up 2% one to 3% since like since the the prior High before Trump got elected where I'm like you would have like any other time you would have expected at least a 10% oh if it wen't priced in you'd expect a larger magnitude

effect cuz exactly Yeah by definition I'm not saying like hey this this doesn't go up because like everyone bought I'm just saying like the move was so much smaller than it should have been okay like at least like sometimes I'm like wondering am I just not no I mean that seems reasonable it's Just some post news churn you know um and it takes a while for some of the other non- Crypton native allocators and you know technical traders and stuff and funds Etc who want a pro crypto you know a good regulatory environment mandate to

start raising and aping in ETC it's just a bit and even with the ETF people right yeah it's the same story right like also with the ETF like we had a bunch of front running and I think that's where the last seven months of chop have come From right like just all that front running had to be absorbed because people are just like okay I I bought I front run this at 30k now it's at 70k uh maybe I don't want to have that risk anymore then you have front run selling you have new people

that buy the ETF buying and then you have that kind of choppy range that we got I think like that's just makes a lot of sense um yeah yeah I think that's reasonable um but you know if both of us think something's Reasonable maybe it's completely B [ __ ] insane um so with regard to the monthly all-time high whatever I remember your call at 58k or around there um is it the kind of thing that generates a equally sized bearish signal if it doesn't work or is it like at the moment strong bullish signal

and then if it fails it's like weak to moderate bearish signal do you think it's both extremes like this looks really good but if it doesn't then it looks really bad like how how do Those is there a symmetry between those two yeah I think it would look really really bad um like below 70k like if we go back below 70k even though we had this good news and all this kind of [ __ ] I think it would shortterm look really really bad um and then I would expect like I think at that point

I would expect a complete leverage un like I'm unwinding basically and that could easily take us below 60k again um I'm not expecting this just for the record Like I'm not like I'm not in the in the camp like Hey we're gonna go below 70k and then we're gonna go to like 58 or whatever again but I think it would be really like that's just a really bad signal and I think at that point a lot of people would be trapped on the wrong side uh the good news is that now that we have like

a uh a US president that is very bullish crypto I think 58 might actually hold again like the monthly level like if That happened and that's a big if um so like even if it happens I think the the unwind would kind of happen from 70 to 60 and then it would start getting interesting again um which is I think good news for anyone like being nervous about like this being a false breakout or whatever um but I'm not expecting it I generally for me right now when I look at the monthly time frame it

kind of looks very similar to what we got in from 2019 August 2019 that high to September 2020 where we got the breakout and nothing happened and we got an immediate retest so like basically we are currently on the breakout I could see this go towards like 80k is um and then actually retest the the prior high without actually failing it um I could see that happen um and then just going up it's a similar kind of price acttion similar kind of structure when you look look at it right um that's more likely To me

than just straight up failing it as in basically go up now get a little bit of fro in uh go back down to Nuke that fro and then actually just run but um right now I'm just assuming this's a breakout uh and that is probably going to go up do you still hold the yeah okay so from a technical perspective all the stuff mentioned previously like you know break out from a long consolidation yada yada all that stuff is bullish and positive uh and you at least have a Short to medium-term invalidation of sub 70k

which means in the short term you should be worried but at the moment it looks really good and I think another thing worth mentioning is that we're not that far away from it you know it's like one daily candle that basically lifted us through that level so if you're trying to set up like aggressive momentum continuation trades or swing trades or something uh of that ilk to uh realize the idea it's not the kind of Thing where your inv validation is 50% away and the whole thing just reeks right we're still the proximity to validation

for a breakout of this magnitude and relative to a consolidation of this magnitude is still pretty good you know and again you're never going to have it perfectly because if the Wake out is break if the breakout is weak Jesus uh if the breakout is weak then the signal itself starts to get messy and if the breakout is really Really really strong then your original invalidation is less helpful because it's so far away so it's almost like you're looking for some sort of goldilock Zone where it's a strong breakout but not so so far that

the original inv validation is just useless you know and I think we're kind of in that area you know uh especially cuz you've got like a I mean literally I think if you if you use that daily swing low before the pump at like 66k if You're being a bit more conservative as your uh portfolio inv validation if that makes sense which isn't to say you nuke everything with a market order below there but it just means like hey this failed then it's too early for a breakout I don't think that's the worst idea in

the world and you can even move it up to the thrust candle low of that daily which is at9 just say look above here like holy [ __ ] [ __ ] send it and then if it Starts really slowing down or grinding through those levels you'll at least get a chance to reposition uh and you know there are many ways to do that for example let's say um this [ __ ] teleports right now then it's not that far from your in validation which is good uh if it doesn't teleport right now then I

doubt it just means crypto is bearish or whatever just like full stop it's [ __ ] uh but you'll probably get a big wash out on some of the outperforming alt Coins that are worth trading for a bounce you know all sorts of [ __ ] so the tldr there is basically all the technical stuff we spoke about previously you know long consolidation breakout alltime High Etc it's currently all green lights which is good so I think some at least aggressive exposure if you're if you trade that type of style is warranted but I think

again if you're managing this on slightly lower time frames and you want to trade around It then 70k is a good shortterm in validation in case we get [ __ ] all stitched up by a uh alltime High break that doesn't come um yeah dude this would suck so bad [ __ ] that dude I'm so tired like I'm so tired of this consolidation I'm so tired of alltime highs providing [ __ ] you know generational resistance levels uh just stop the [ __ ] we've we've suffed enough and uh at least a bit of

upside you know would be [ __ ] just give us a break Basically do you still hold the view that even if I I mean let's say this entire section is dog [ __ ] and it just keeps [ __ ] teleporting right um do you still hold the view that it's going to be a week alltime High breakout before uh it gets nuked back down even if it ultimately resolves in a support test y yada yada uh is that still your base case the acceleration isn't to you know 100K plus but rather like I

don't know mid 80s or something H yeah I mean Like mid 80s I I mean it's still a big breakout I think 80 90 80 90 100K is all possible but I would all like title all of that a weak breakout yeah anything below like 120k is a weak breakout to me right now uh so like would still think that yeah I think you're going to get you're going to get a bunch of fro in like if we go to 80 uh I think between 80 and 90k you're gonna get infinite fro basically um just

immediately snap off a finger everyone suddenly leverage to Hits expecting 100K and I think that would basically get washed out pretty much immediately um so like if we that's kind of been my CA like my base case like we talked about this for weeks and weeks now right where I was like I think like this probably goes up but I think it's going to be weak breakout I still pretty much exactly expect that um I generally also like just looking at the daily chart like it has already been a weak breakout Um and we talked

about why and all that stuff but at the end of the day it's a week breakout um and uh but it hasn't been that long either right like I think if it lasts for a week under ATK I'd be like H this is a bit [ __ ] but I'm willing to give it a chance to oh yeah I mean I'm giving it a chance like I'm I'm like my base case is bullish from here and if it goes to 80 and 90k like my base case has been like hey it's going to go up

and and it's going to like Basically get stuff but I can change my mind at 80 90k right and I can be like hey this actually much stronger here than I thought it would be yeah coinbase is like buying the [ __ ] out of it all coins are there's no froth you know ETFs are ramping up whatever whatever so it depends on how we get there I I basically look at the market when I make these predictions right I look at the market I'm like okay this would just get a like very froy but

it doesn't have to Right like it's not a guarantee that that's how it's going to play out it's just what I'm expecting it to do and then I like if we are there and it's it's at the price level that I expected it to get to which is 80 90k but it's not trading how I thought it would then obviously I'm going to change my kind of reality check yourself which is good thing to do I think in terms of practical stuff what what would make sense to me is the following Um if you I

I mean this is a big [ __ ] move right like there's there's a chance that this is the breakout from a multi-month consolidation you expect it to go up for weeks and months afterwards right and I actually think the decision tree here is very similar to uh at least in some respects feel free to disagree completely the 32 35k breakout where you have like a mega Level under which the market was cooking for a while and then it suddenly starts to impulse through it I think realistically a useful decision tree there is um if

you want some exposure then your options are to either just [ __ ] Mark it by some spot so that you don't lose your absolute ass looking at 1 to 2% moves and then it goes up 30 right and then you feel like an absolute idiot cuz you're like what the [ __ ] was I doing this is like one of the clearest High time frame signals ever and I was wrestling over like a 2 3 4 5% better entry even though the move Ended up being 20 30% like that's a really shitty feeling and

I think every Trader has been there you and I have certainly been there but I think if you want to like sanity check yourself and hedge against uh suicidal ideations then you you just put on some essentially price insensitive exposure right whether that means for you spot whether that means low leverage whatever combination of those two but you like have something so you don't [ __ ] lose your mind if It teleports up uh I think the other option if you want to be more if you don't suffer from those uh mental demons and want

to have some exposure nonetheless is that you take you put on your Trader hat and say look normally low time frame entries have low time frame targets High time frame entries have high time frame targets right but in this instance given how the high time frames look if I get a low time frame long entry I'm going to hold it through The low time frame first trouble area resistance and just keep that position on right so it's like basically a slightly more advanced version of [ __ ] it I'm just going to buy some at

market and hold it because I want exposure this is like the slightly more risky but also technically sophisticated version where you're like I still want to like trade my way into an entry but I will give sort of respect to the high time frame picture by not cutting it on a [ __ ] 2 3% move move in my favor I think both of those are acceptable and make sense or are a good mental illness hedge that if this [ __ ] is like new paradigm full regime change teleportation you don't feel like an absolute

cun um I don't know what you think of that framework yeah that that's what makes sense to me uh and then look if it if it pulls back if it fails or whatever I don't I I think you can justify not feeling like an absolute [ __ ] right like when we Were trading around uh 30k Plus you know if you're buying that and if it were to pull back and fail and get back into the range I I wouldn't have felt bad about that trade I'd been like hey you know like it's about as

good as you can expect the high time frames to look uh that's not a trade you look back on with regret you don't feel like an [ __ ] I feel like this is one of those similar instances if you're a bit price in sensitive or uh take a more loose Approach with your entry and even if you're wrong I don't think you'll you should feel like an [ __ ] and that's a pretty good uh trade Criterion for crypto at the very least I think three out of four s that just works and if

if this is the time where it doesn't work I mean so be it right like it's have a lot of friends as well you know if this doesn't work there there'll be a lot of people in the same boat who are thinking what the [ __ ] is going on but that's why I'm saying like if it doesn't work be quick because if it doesn't work like all of those friends that you have turn into your worst enemies like very very fast because they're basically gonna want to try to get out of the position to

um like I generally and this is why I'm like saying like hey like be bullish unless you start losing this impulse because if you do H I think it's basically gonna be a bunch of people coping because they're like guaranteed Like they're like guaranteed Trump is going to make this go up um and they have positions that are underwater and those kind of people you can punish the easiest right because they will not give up um until they're kind of liquidated is um therefore I think you would get like a large leverage wipe out and

I think it would end up going up anyway right like that's what I'm that's kind of where I'm where I'm at if this goes wrong it's basically to get rid of a lot Of baggage like a bunch of people that are like rightfully positioned but with too much risk and um so I think it's gonna go up uh or and it's the other way that this can play out it's going to wipe out like all that all that risk side of things and then go up um so I mean if you're in spot you're probably

just fine either way uh just you like panicking is just not the way to go um but my base case just generally like it's probably just gonna go up like it's Gonna cost a lot of like it's gonna cost a lot of money to make this go down like something would have to I think it would have to take the S&P down and like like at this point like back in the day right if someone saw like positions like this like where the market is kind of like overextended whatever and someone in crypto was like

okay I can take advantage of this just starts dumping like millions of Bitcoin just stab the perss basically yeah yeah and then Suddenly everything rolls over and it's just like a Bitcoin SL like crypto move because someone just saw an opportunity I think you cannot really do that anymore uh you need not in BTC at least no not to the same extent I guess on really low time frames it's possible like we've seen you know binance be whale hyper liquid whatever squeeze those types of things but yeah on the high time frame like the higher

the time frame the harder that is to do yeah Because basically like I mean you're going to sell and then the the ETFs are just going to sit there and start doubling it up and and then you have to pray that it Cascades before they've actually just bought up all your [ __ ] and the price goes higher and it's like that's not a nice position to be in right so like the market has changed in that regard where like it's not as easy to take advantage of Market participants anymore yes um but it's still

like you Can still get that right like if the S&P starts going down the ETF gets a little bit less hungry because of it um and then the fail like the breakout fails uh you can still get that wipe out um but I'm my base case is just up up yeah I just felt the need to add some meat to the bone of like okay I've just listened to like [ __ ] 30 40 minutes and these guys are saying yeah looks good let's [ __ ] go base cases up but like what the [

__ ] do I actually do um and and I Think we provid at least some semblance of a useful framework which is you can either just [ __ ] give in and mental illness hedge yourself and just buy some spot don't care don't try to you know be intelligent or trade your way into an entry or if you really want to be you know a bit more precise than you look for any low time frame long entry that meets your criteria and the big difference there is you hold it uh through your usual low time

frame Target There we go I think that's about as practically useful as it gets um and your validation is 10% away right now yeah which isn't crazy um it it can be a lot worse and again that's it has been a lot worse and that's the benefit of doing the low time frame approach and again there it's always trade-offs right like if you take the price and sensitive approach guaranteed an entry but your invalidation is probably going to be worse whereas if you're taking the I'm Going to trade my way into an entry approach you're

not guaranteed an entry but if you get one your invalidation is probably going to be tighter and uh you know more palatable to you as the trader yeah and generally speaking for both camps at least from a high time frame point of view uh that early warning system is like sub 70 69k essentially which is the breakout candle getting stuffed uh is that it I think it's pretty uh Eth dude ethereum the E Coke triangle dude I mean you called the last eight eight of the last two e bottoms done so this is your [

__ ] track record is impressive um e BTC let's start there oh yeah still boring people are like people are euphoric about it um right and I mean I get it it's the first green candle we've had ever but um but like I mean it bounced like if you go on the monthly it bounced Exactly on the line um that we draw Dre like months and months ago um basically the the consolidation high of January 355 yeah yeah we so we talked about this like for ages and ages it went there uh I actually like

last week even I was like it's it's technically at high time frame support and the comments on the YouTube video where actually like like Don has to have such a huge e bag because he's coping so much I mean look at me now It's up it's green I called it uh no but just generally like it bounced where it needed to it's still in between um like support and resistance resistance is at 0.039 is um but it's still kind of boring right like it's not like this is a crazy candle or anything um but it's

at least something right like it's three days of upside um yesterday was quite aggressive upside and that is while Bitcoin is going up right like that's the big Difference because what we've been seeing that like e holds a little bit better and then that's a green Candle on the E chart while Bitcoin goes down um and that's generally like probably just like someone forgot like a buy order or something uh on eusd and Bitcoin goes down and then e holds up better but then retraces all of it anyway um in this case it's actually just

more buying on Eve while Bitcoin goes up which is good right like that's what you want to see Um so that's the first good sign but I think ebtc still looks meh um the the interesting chart is the eusd chart let's talk about e USD then because that is on a similar cusp of a breakout yeah let me see I mean technically like on the low time frame broke out of it broke out of the of the triangle already if you go to the weekly it is exactly at three like at the 3K prior resistance

whatever so are you full short this broken sport turn Resistance baby Pips patterned on uh no like it it reminds me too much of Bitcoin at 32k or like 6K as well yeah um basically you run into the most important level but if you if you wanted to stop this you would have stopped it at 2.7 uh not at that level but um I could be wrong on that kind of same story as Bitcoin if it falls back below 2.7k I think it's kind of cooked starts looking really bad but until it does so just

looks really good On the USD pair okay yeah I mean the levels here are for a change very good on eth like I'm looking at on The Daily basically 2.9 2.7 y I think the trades that are available are breakout trading 3K plus and then you at least have a clear inv validation at 3K and you pray that it just keeps steamrolling and fills in that Gap left by that super sloppy selling or if you get shallow pullbacks andle shallow pullbacks up to 2.7 uh you Basically have again a case of good proximity and validation

and you're hoping the whole thing isn't a [ __ ] failed breakout scam um I think the cool thing in both instances is that again as boring as it sounds this is like very important trading stuff your proximity and viation is pretty good in both instances they're just different trades showing it like the 3K breakout trade you have good proximity and validation even if you have to chase it up a little Bit and you've got a pretty good magnet higher in the form of that you know volume profile Gap and the 2.7k trade also or

close to 2.7 has a very clear Line in the Sand and proximity and validation because if that fails then probably means BTC has failed and it's a failed breakout a lot of people are going to be trapped so on so you know so on and so forth uh as The Story Goes so that that I think is pretty good uh I think that means at the moment it's kind Of a nothing Burger cuz there might be some you know it's like at it's into resistance not above it and sometimes those 2 3 5% make all

the difference for the actual expected value of the trade like I think that's worth waiting for personally either 3K plus even if it's like I'd rather buy like 3.2 3.3 than 2 .9 if that makes sense that sounds absolutely [ __ ] but but I stand by it contextually in this context you know like I'd rather pay a premium at least In this case to buy Above resistance with a clear inv validation rather than buy resistance with no clear inv validation for a better price um and I mean it's the best like your mileage may

vary though yeah but I mean if if this was Bitcoin like I would be like hey just ignore this resistance at 3K and just run it through like that's what I said at 32k if you remember that's what I said that like that's what you and I said like at at 6K like we've always Made this argument right for Bitcoin like if you get to these high high time frame levels of resistance previous consolidations whatever um if you get there you usually break through right for all coins it's not necessarily the same um so this

is this is e um so I kind of agree with you like above like at 3.3 like I I mean I think just generally like I've been saying like I think E's gonna gonna do well um but I think it's going to do much Better than um than it is right now above 3.2 3.3 uh because I think it's just going to make a new alltime high at that point like if youve reclaimed this current resistance uh there's a good good path towards like 5K and um then it doesn't really matter too much that's spicy

I mean why don't we go full um tin foil hat ta and have a range we like those from 4K to 3K uh the even literally what I have on my on my chart yeah I mean even the Midpoint takes you to 3.5k and the Range High takes to 4K obviously so then cons again this is a clear case of where you consider the mag the size of the available move relative to how precise you're trying to be with your entry like it seems like oh I I don't want to buy 3.1 two you know

whatever three even uh because it seems like a bad deal but considering where the next trouble areas are and how the whole structure shifts it's not a Terri premium to pay like if I tell you you have to pay you know 2% extra for 20% more upside you you'll be like yeah of course I'll do it but if if I pay if I tell you you have to pay 2% premium for like 1.5% more upside you'll probably be a bit more skeptical right yeah so like I think it's a relevant trading consideration and in general

this just gives you I think if this is your eth road map I think it's rock solid you essentially have 3K as the former range low big inflection point You've got three and a half as the midpoint choppy piece of [ __ ] trouble area you've got 4K as the Range High uh 2.7 as the this better [ __ ] hold otherwise we've been scammed and then your actual religious level of support is the [ __ ] ascending triangle uh trend line which you know fifth test best test on that one yeah but like I

can I legit think you can just keep the SE chart and it'll it'll guide you somewhat helpfully yeah I mean if it Comes back we're all [ __ ] if it doesn't um I like I generally think um especially with what I said about defi yes um I think if this narrative gets rolling and I think it would above 3K um you're in the exact right spot I think the E the E TS and a lot of them were bullish e the entire way down and then turned into accounts that just kind of like non-stop

posted haha Eve sucks so much right like it's kind of funny to see that whole thing play out where People were were like it's Bitcoin and Eve and then Eve went down like infinite against Bitcoin uh during this cycle and and the last few weeks have been non-stop like people just being like hey if this piece of trash never goes up whatever and then it actually start friends long e that type of Stu kind of not I mean you are late to that relative at least from a Time perspective right yeah so late when it's

like a when it's an old meme on CT you're so [ __ ] late Should have watch Casual Friday the home of ether is in a downtrend yeah and the of midwit trade you that was a very compelling thesis and I don't think it's a midw trade anymore um okay there you go ether's graduated guys congratulations he even got Dawn to [ __ ] realign but yeah this is I think a super helpful it's a it's the only eth road map that people are going understand cuz God forbid you try to understand the actual eth

road Map you are absolutely [ __ ] but but this one I think is intelligible oh Jesus Christ no [ __ ] D Shing in this one just just like four lines yeah but so we're kind of on like a like Eve has has a setup at least for the for the first time in a long time like get above 3K like I mean I said the same thing at at at 2.7 right I was like get above 27 and it starts starts looking really good um now it's above 2.7 and I Think we really

shouldn't get below that above 3K acceleration um like a weekly close above 3K would do quite a lot to this chart oh for sure yes and um I mean then you can make the argument that it's exactly the same as Bitcoin below 6K right like it's also a similar structure when you just like zoom in a little bit it's very similar um like in ascending triang like that's literally what Bitcoin did right if you remember If you remember like go on bitcoin on the weekly and then just compare the to right like you had a

long long consolidation that broke down you have an ascending triangle at the bottom I [ __ ] hate that the pattern idiots get it right this we have to throw some crumbs from time to time you know yeah but basically uh same kind of story uh we are currently at the 6K resistance basically and um if Eve is not a piece of [ __ ] which to be fair it has been so Maybe it continues to be uh but if it's not a piece of [ __ ] I think you can make that analogy and

then uh I think like e can go back to 4K at least there you go um quite reasonable and very technical teally clear at the very least and I think this is one of those helpful ones as well with the weekly time frame just basically entirely mirrors the daily so if if you want the slower but higher probability signal it's like weekly close above 2.9 or Whatever or 3K uh and then the weekly range is like slightly different if you take highest close lowest close where the midpoint is slightly lower at 3.4 but it's like

still the same [ __ ] like the Range High is 3.8 3.9 so on and so forth like that's a really like clear chart it's very hard to get uh I mean you could always get faked out by signals that don't work but again this is one of those areas where if you get it wrong and you followed the closes or Followed the setups you shouldn't feel like a CT if you're wrong and those setups are pretty rare to find in crypto so there we go uh we we've redrawn the e road map salana salana

salana salana basically salana is above 200 yes soul is above 200 um what do you think are you are you break up buying this thing is it a similar decision tree when it comes to Soul uh where are the levels so on and So forth I mean I I'm personally not breakout trading this at all like if anything I'd be tra like break out trading e that but that's just because I'm a boomer I don't really care about sold too much um but chartwise it's good yeah like I'm I'm not like I'm not a soul

hater I'm not like because people kind of title me this way they're like hey like you always hate soul I just like no I'm I I don't really care is is all it is um but chart looks good yeah Yeah like above 200 I think there's all the opportunity in the world to accelerate uh we are here for the third time in a row for sure um so like 200 is the resistance but was kind of like starting to to go and if you go on the monthly time frame that's actually been really clean um

it has it has and actually been more clean than Bitcoin even um Bitcoin had like that lower wash out uh Solana did not um so retest the monthly support went up generally don't Really see a good reason for this resistance to hold again um same kind of setup like if you want to trade Soul rather than like Bitcoin or e or whatever it's the same setup basically um like Eve has a little bit more of a clear setup because it broke out of that ascending triangle that's a little bit closer to invalidation um but Solana

like the invalidation is 160 right like that like this weekly impulse if that goes like I think then you probably Going to see like much lower prices what about 186 on The Daily I was kind of eyeing that up earlier cuz it's kind of the top of the shorter range that was formed in this massive massive consolidation uh and we kind kind of had a bit of a hiccup there and then broke out um kind of works it's very aggressive though like in comparison to the level that levels that we have on bitcoin and true

I think that's very aggressive but then again like given the Strength like it has a lot of like Soul has a lot of strength um it's not the at the end of the world right like when stuff is is weak um like I don't like to go for the aggressive levels like this um but if it's strong often times those are the only ones you get right so I think like 186 is a decent one like if you absolutely want to trade Solana um like that can be your invalidation it's just very aggressive like that

would usually be the one where you look for a Pullback right but in this case given everything's breaking out you'd be like hey okay like it really shouldn't have come this far sure um so yeah it's a little bit more aggressive but I think just generally like Solana looks good is the sorry just before we move on the the Boomer version is the weekly impulse low right yeah basically 160 something pretty straightforward and again it seems like so far away and in this case obviously it is a bit more far away but The the whole

premise here is that this thing's been consolidating for like 18 years uh and it's like the cycle narrative leader and it's on the cusp of a breakout from that long consolidation into a new alltime high so yeah your the corresponding size of the target so to speak kind of compensates again for the relatively wide inv validation I 400 for example targeting 4 it's not that crazy on that chart like that's like very close by um and I think this is what Gets I mean I speaking from experience here and I'm sure you've been affected by

this as well it's very easy to get tied up when there's like you're used to trading lower time frames with more precision and then you kind of have to eat Humble Pie if you really want a piece of the high time frame cake this [ __ ] terrible analogy you know what I mean right like you're so used to being like 1 two 3 4% inv validations and now it's like hey the target is like [ __ ] Invisible and if you really want the piece of this then you need need a wide in validation

it kind of hurts your Trader ego because you're so used to doing business so close to inv validation and for it to be so Technical and you get all the perfect retests and here you're being essentially asked to like ape on Lower time frames with a wide stop part of it just kind of feels foreign and alien and it's a hurt to Your Ego that you're not like [ __ ] Sniping this thing but sometimes with high time frame setups that's just uh the cost of doing business essentially it's like a necessary condition to participate

in like a very very strong breakout or a very strong Market yeah it's basically when you go from trending where you need to be really prec H from from ranging where you need to be like very precise to trending where you really cannot be be precise right like you're precise you're wrong yeah I mean Like legit like often times when you have these breakouts and you are precise and you buy the retest it's that was a false breakout and you just bought the top and you're getting wrecked so like this why this is like so

important um and like you said you're kind of rewarded by having far away targets so you get the same kind of mileage out of the trade even if your stop loss and your position size is like if your like position size is smaller because your Stop loss is is so much further away what people do other like usually when like they they us usually don't adjust their position size they just put the stop loss and then they're just like okay I'm going to take 50% of my portfolio is going to be gone if this is

wrong which fair enough but um same size wider stop yeah what could go um but yeah that's kind of the the situation we're in right now I think where you have to adjust from okay we've been Ranging for months to we're technically breaking out um because what you don't want to to happen is that like that nasty Wick that you sometimes get on breakouts to the side that washes people out to take you out to um yeah I think so go on yeah the problem is that like you could be smart and be like ah

usually like oftentimes there's a nasty Wick so I'm gonna just bid that and it doesn't come and you just never get an entry and it just runs away from you and You just completely lose your mind so yeah and what a terrible tradeoff right it's like I want an % better entry whatever size of the wick uh but if you don't get it you miss out on like a 40 50 60% move you know yeah uh we could even come up with like a very short list of I guess the key differences um sort of

key differences trending versus ranging uh so I think time is a big one so trending equals faster resolution V reversal time frame Trending equals uh more lower time frame slash faster moving averages SL SL shallower pullback uh I think another useful one is hold on let me let me try to sort this out properly it's not opening anymore uh there we go almost there what do you think is what else is relevant time is an important one so trending is faster resolution and V reversal and obviously for ranging you just take the opposite of this

right time frame trending equals More low time frame faster moving averages that you use and shallower pullbacks uh maybe there's one in terms of sort of sizing right or or yeah Precision that's what I was looking for that that's on this game my Precision uh generally speaking trending equals less precise and levels are less clear do you agree with that yeah s of when you're range bound you have the luxury of trading really good levels cuz the Market really isn't moving anywhere and those are worth waiting for whereas as you remember certainly in 2021 and

previous range trending environment sorry you you you see like one red Candle on the 4 Hour and it's like oh my God this is like the best support level on the planet you know um yeah so we've got time time frame Precision I know there's a video on this channel by the way somewhere titled like how to trade altcoins in a trending Market where I've Got like a more thorough list but you know while we're both here is there anything else that comes to mind uh time time frame Precision actually not really now that's quite

a lot of it um yeah how do you what how do you think of it in terms of sizing I I mean it depends right like depends on how strict you are with your trading but technically speaking in in trending environments you want to have as much Size as possible but also your stop loss so far away that you have to go a little bit smaller yes um so it depends basically like you want to keep the size that you have on like you want to keep the positions as long as possible basically in trending

environments but uh technically speaking when you put the position on uh it's hard to put it on on as or like you really technically shouldn't put it on as big as you usually Would yes I think it's also generally more Dynamic right where you don't want to have you know as the trend goes on for longer you don't want to keep increasing your position size generally speaking uh in a real trading environment you want to let the market do the heavy lifting for you and it's that initial impulse that you want to be well positioned

for I think yeah um and that also I think speaks to the next point which is trade Frequency that's one that we should probably discuss trade frequency I think trending is God this is difficult but I would posit that in a trending environment you have a lower frequency of Trades yes uh and that's simply because in well for two reasons one is that if you're correct correctly positioned the trending environment then the market does all the heavy lifting for you in terms of trading and you should you should just have those core Positions and already

be positioned uh for the move and again the market does the lifting for you and the second thing is that a lower trading frequency will also prevent you from over rotating and just like rebalancing time yeah making mistakes basically and that's like the biggest killer you know you have like you're tra you're trading this type of Market one day your positions are sort of relatively weak compared to another sector you [ __ ] rotate everything to That sector and the next day your original positions are up you know like that type of it's very easy

to just miss out on an entire Trend or underperform or even bleed your account due to fees if you're always hopping back and forth so I'd say uh generally speaking in a trending environment you have a lower frequency uh I think another one is uh trade management which kind of relates to trade frequency but I would say that lower frequency trade Management in a Trending environment uh and more of a trailing stop updated invalidation approach because in a ranging environment you know you're you very liberally kind of get in and then cut and you take

a few stabs at that type of thing and uh you just try to figure out the best entries to like catch one rotation but realistically if you're on the right side of a trending environment your trade management shouldn't be that active uh you're letting the trend do Most of the heavy lifting and as far as what you do manage most of it is going to be if things really start to run just updating in validations so you don't give back too much and maybe take some profit along the way yes so that's another one here

we go see the list is expanding on uh targets I would say that in a trending environment uh fewer predefined targets fewer predefined targets slash more Aggressive Trend monitoring for updated invalidation so I think when you're trading and again feel free to disagree with any of this type of stuff uh and obviously your mileage and approaches may vary for those listening but generally speaking in in an environment that does you know behaves in this way uh you don't trade it like you know the meme version of CT it's like level to level etc etc L

to level mate yeah yeah yeah that's like Not it for the most part it's certainly not going to put you in a position where you're just holding these massive Runners and these massive Trends through some like irrational market caps I think for the most part uh it works for range trading because you don't expect things to break out or move a lot so your previous highs previous lows all that type of stuff provides enough friction for you to get out of the trade and the market is generally mean reverting but In a trading environment in

a trending environment sorry um if you really want to create the possibility to hold this stuff through uh mental moves the way you do that isn't by having preset or predefined like takeprofit levels per se or resistance levels but you rather just I think change how aggressively you're monitoring the low time frame Trend and basically as soon as that breaks and as soon as it uh nukes one of your updated Invalidations then you just get the [ __ ] out and uh lock lock your gains in that way and now the pros of that approach

is it puts you in a position where you just get to ride crazy [ __ ] through crazy [ __ ] so that's pretty nice and the cons of that approach obviously is if you're bad at updating your your invalidation then you give back a lot and also if the trend is very Steep and doesn't give you a reasonable place to update your invalidation uh then again you will You're at risk of giving back a lot and also if you're too tight with it then there's a chance that you puke the whole position on what's

ultimately a shallow pullback uh before it keeps going without you but again there's no there's no perfect recipe here without trade-offs I just think on average uh fewer predefined targets and more aggressive Trend monitoring and updating validations is a better kind of the overall the trailing approach uh is Better than oh you know this is the resistance let me just nuke my entire position here and that's it yep I mean I generally think also like but this is not really applicable to the differences but when you have a trending environment that goes completely crazy and

your life would be changed by just taking like 10 15 20% of your portfolio out of the market and into the real world you'd be kind of an idiot not to do so yes yes um like that's my advice for like let's say This goes crazy here and goes like Bitcoin goes from 70 to 90k and you see a bunch of all coins like 10 X or whatever like just do me the favor or do future you the favor and just take like 10 15 20% out it's not going to make a difference in in

crypto terms if it does another 10x oh yeah I mean that's a bummer right like you could have made more but you're still going to be Beyond Rich at that point um like if if you're up that much already and then you take Another 10x that's great but if it then goes down um you're not going to sit there regretting things or Revenge trading um because that's what T tends to happen right when people make a shitload of money the market goes down they tend to Revenge trade to get back to the all-time high um

and then they lose it all I've seen it too many times just take that as like from me as someone that's been like in the public CT space for so long um because if You're just doing this by yourself you don't see this as much right but like I see every like I saw it in 17 18 I saw it during every single cycle where people made riches and then basically went out poorer than they came into the space um just make sure that you're like somewhat injuring yourself against yourself right because you got to

do dumb [ __ ] when it goes crazy just make sure that you cannot do dumb [ __ ] that actually hurts you um and that is one of The easiest way to do it just cash out like 10 15 20% when it gets crazy and then if it gets even more crazy do that again it's not going to change like you being generational Rich uh at any point like if it's just like 15 20% but it will change if you're actually just wrong on things and the market collapses and you put yourself into a

way better mental state I feel like um versus living your life on unrealized pnl as we both have done is just not it [ __ ] with You and I think the issue is it [ __ ] with you up until you then realize some and then you feel that burden lifted and you experience how good it feels and you feel like an idiot for not doing it earlier if that makes sense so it's hard to ascertain and experience in the moment but as soon as you do it it's that instant relief uh that that

is very worthwhile and it'll give you a clearer mind in general to make subsequent trading decisions yeah I mean at the end Of the day like if if you look at it in a way where it's like your stop loss is complete Financial ruin right and your target is like getting 10% more like that's [ __ ] dumb that's really [ __ ] dumb so like just look at as look at it as a trade right you're like hey I'm I'm giving up 15 20% of this um which and at the end of the day

it's not that much but like I'm raising my stop loss by infinite right yes so just look at it that way it's like my target is 10% away and my stop loss is financial ruin it's like yeah like how dumb is that like when you actually think about it but then people are like hey this is for sure going to 10x one more time like the 10% is going to make like it's going to be so much money which is true right like it's going to be much money but at the end of the day

it's still going to only be 10% of what you would have made like if you let's say you make a million H you make 900k like that's not going to make a big difference right or if you make 10 million and you make n million instead like that's not going to make or break you um it's not going to make it at big difference at the end of the day it's but if you lose it all and but you keep like like 100K in that case or like a million out of those 10 um like

that's that's much better so take it from someone that's seen this too many times and I've I've heard the sub stories like Literally the the DMS that we have after the Cycle's over like nightmare stories nightm some 2021 DMS are some of the saddest things I've ever read like full stop like especially the ones you shared and stuff like oh my god dude wouldn't wouldn't wish that on anyone but hey this is a pretty useful I mean look it's a very rough on the-fly framework maybe it warrants its own article and again there's another video

on the channel That has a similar outline essentially as far as making adjustments for trending markets but I don't think this is a terrible place to start although the most worrying thing about this is if we're talking about this now there's a risk that it's a top signal because Casual Friday is so cursed you know we spend the entire timeing talking about alltime high breakout how good it is making adjustments and then it just just goes to zero that that'd be very on Brand with uh Casual Friday curse yeah that' be unfortunate but hey if

it goes to 60k we get to FUD it again before it's the generational bottom again so yeah no this time we don't fight it we're like oh [ __ ] let's go and then I mean it did break right like it did break we were right it just took six tries took six tries but also the wipe out on that break was actually pretty miserable um that was oh yeah people people were Struggling the impact that was pretty bad um cool that's helpful any altcoin stuff you want to discussed like Dogecoin is uh challenging its

previous high from from uh you had a lot of Dogecoin now you do not yeah you still think the thesis is in play oh yeah yeah I mean the thesis have not has not changed like it's not like I like when I took profits not like my any of my ideas changed I was just like hey I really just don't feel like Trading right now people people kind of lose their minds when someone says this but like that's the like that's what I that's how I want to live my life right I don't want to

have my life dictated by the market or someone else like that's the cool part about making making your own fortune right where you're like I just don't feel like it I don't have to do it um so nothing's changed really I still think like there is especially like I mean the the whole Doge kind of Idea was based on the fact that Trump may win um and then you have Elon pumping do again um on a much bigger stage um and that's not like that's if anything been confirmed now with Trump having I think Dogecoin

is pretty much the best meme coin um from like a risk to return ratio where the risk is very little compared to every other meme coin um and the return is still quite good I think a dollar is possible which would be a 5x The risk is quite Limited in a way that um like this has some sort of liness to it and it's also like just like a really big coin uh so yeah I still I still like those um from like from like a just Technical and just kind of narrative perspective um so

yeah there I'm not hating on do good so hey maybe you should rewatch like 10 the segment 10 minutes ago about getting an entry done then you can update us all on your Market by yeah I mean you this the same Like all of these entries basically would be the same right all of these coins um it just some ran harder and some run less hard and you might be inclined to look for the ones that ran less hard because it's easier um like you're like oh yeah this is just 2% away from from um

invalidation that's better that's not necessarily the case right like the one that is 10% away from invalidation might be better than the one that is 2% away because it's already Showing strength right whereas the one that isn't um isn't for example Dogecoin the invalidation right now when you look at it like quite objectively even like on low time frames I think that would be 0.15 and that's quite far away like that's 20 30% away um and that's on a low time frame basis right if you look on the weekly time frame on Dogecoin your invalidation

would be 0.1 which is like a two like you take a 50% haircut um which might be like way like okay I Really don't want to do that and this is why I think your advice like take low low time frame entries um and then hold them for high time frame targets that's kind of the best thing to do in these the only thing you can do because you're not putting on a trade with a 50% stop unless you want to size it with like $2 yeah exactly and then I mean you can also what

you can also always do is just and this is what like just happens in trading environments you just go on the Lower time frames and the like on the weekly time frame you're like 50% stop loss that's way too far and at 100% degree then you go on the daily time frame you look whether this is and and this is something that you have to do right whether this is kind of like right for a massive ShakeOut because then you could actually get shaken out right because that's the risk that you take when you go

on the lower time frames that that time frame actually just Shakes out um but if those coin shakes out below 0.15 I think it's just wrong like you're more likely wrong than than that is just shake out because that's so deep and um so against the current narrative that I think at that point it probably just go even lower than that um and then that's more reasonable and then you can you can do this on the 4 Hour too you can be like hey uh the impulse candle um from like 0.1 like on 4 hour

0.17 right like that really shouldn't be and you can go like this and then you have a decent entry uh like with decent invalidation that is actually like you're not going to lose too much if you're wrong it's not necessary necessarily too likely that you get stopped out and the market full reverses um like tags the level and then just goes back up I think if we go back below 0.17 there's a good chance we shake out all the way to 0.14 for Example like if you go on the 4 Hour time frame uh which

is just to say like I don't think that's going to happen right so you have a decent decent uh invalidation and then you can Target quite High because it's a high time frame breakout it's a high time frame narrative and then you can go from there it's obviously not guaranteed right and there's always going to be times where your stop loss gets triggered and it just still goes to Dollar but that's Kind of the trade-off that you have to take when you take this strategy where it's like yes one out of three one out of

four times you just get completely wrecked and you the bottom and you [ __ ] hate it but that's just the life that we're living as Traders I think if there's anything managed to get across hopefully and convey somewhat convincingly is that there's no free lunch it's just a trade-offs against tradeoffs you know always yeah um Whereas if you I think if you listen to a lot of like Twitter trading stuff it's quite the opposite it's like oh if you just wait for like this specific confirmation in Candle pattern then like it's risk- free you

know move to break even it's risk free like you can't lose oh just flip bias if you're long get in by and make it back on the short side like all these methods are trying to I mean they're creating the false illusion that there are no trade-offs you can Always like offset the risk fully and actually still make money and I think if anything the opposite is true uh it's more of a you know know your enemy pick your poison type of thing more so than just avoid all the risks and somehow get paid it's

just not how it works yeah um when the market looks like there's no risk uh you're taking maximum risk yeah like it's just how it is it's like those you know super Trend following stuff it's like oh look all the trend Following indicators on like every single time frame are like Max Green Max bullish it's like hey that's actually really risky you know yeah I mean that's means it has run for ages yeah exactly you're up like 500% and at some point it is going to have shake out all like just the top and then

you're going to get completely you are not early if that's the case yeah um also mudang is up 133% yeah I mean mudang like the the whole like this is something to Generally look out for when stuff gets listed on binance and then immediately immediately kind of nukes um like if it's something that is like has a lot of Mind share and it survives basically it basically survives that nuke um then you have really interesting trades and I mean mudang is up like 130% or something from the bottom um and you got like a pretty

nice setup there like at the bottom on on on mudang like mudang usdt yeah um you had like a Resistance uh there that got just broken and you had like basically a a breakout candle and then it's never looked back yeah yeah for sure and um so there's something there on the lower time frames to trade with the the background that it was listed like this wouldn't be interesting if it wasn't right like this the only reason why this is interesting is because it was listed on binance and then died I actually didn't think it's

a it's a terrible approach for your Altcoin watch list to be like what are the lowest cap newest meme coins listed on binance and trading those for your long tail you know I think there are like two ways to go one is a way we keep talking about because it keeps working which is depending on the time frame of your trades you look at like daily or weekly uh strongest performers and then you sort of anchor based on those and generally expect strong stuff to to keep being strong or you take the d gen Approach

of like look at the new listings the absolute [ __ ] [ __ ] newest shitcoins listed on centralized exchange there's going to be volatility there and but then if it survives that sort of listing insid or exit you're going to find some wild moves there as well and then obviously option three is like uh more rotational narrative driven which I also think is the hardest one like I think it's way easier to just keep trying to buy stuff that's been Strong rather than time the rotation perfectly but there is a third option which is

that if you for example agree with you that there's like an Ecentric Renaissance defi utility can now commit crimes Etc then you're at that point just trying to be early to a narrative and uh hoping that there's a catch-up trade I just think on average the early to a narrative catch-up trade is harder than strong stuff is going to keep being strong but obviously there's obvious Also a risk premium built into that so if you are right uh and you're there before the rotation you make you make a lot of money essentially yeah I mean

basically it's like you catch the first move and then hopefully the second one whereas like sometimes the first move is like a 5x and the second one is like another 5x like the second one is so much nicer to catch from Trading perspective because the first one's like just very risky but if you manage to Catch both like that's a 20 like that's that's so much more right like it's one 25x instead of just like a 5x but um but you also have to take massive risk um which usually I think like said is not

worth it in crypto usually you want to like a narrative takes hold and then it retraces a little bit and then you jump on it rather than you predict the narrative because a lot of people have been trying to predict the E Resurgence um for months now and they Got completely wrecked right um whereas if if e just shows some strength here and then goes above freek you have really easy trade right um and it doesn't really matter that you didn't buy 2.1 .2 to 2.3 yeah um if if e goes from like if you

just get on board and then you immediately like two weeks after you can sell again for 2x the price like that's so much more chill um but obviously the the return is going to be a little bit lower there's like ups And downsides to it I tend to like if I see like a POS like a narrative that could possibly form that actually sounds reasonable I usually try to front run the narrative but most of the time you just cannot like there's no real reasonable narrative for something um and then you just grab the narrative

while it's hot right I think ether is the most press the most passent example of what happens if you're wrong essentially that you try to front run Something that doesn't happen you just end up massively out underperforming rather so the ETF flows yeah like the whole thing yeah yeah exactly um cool I think that's pretty thorough don't you think yeah it whiffs whiffs been struggling I I made like people are so mad all the time dude like every time I make a joke about something like I'm like doing this like yeah yeah like not even

with like bad intent or anything I'm just like making a joke um and the Best thing for a meme is to stay in the Limelight right the more people talk about it the better for a meme it is so if anything the with people should be happy that I'm tweeting about it um but I was making a joke that like do like the the that the doesn't need a hat because Do's been outperforming with quite massively um and I think just generally the big memes like do has a little bit um of like a liquidity

training effect on like for example whff Right now I think that's pretty clear um the Doge kind of like the the Doge narrative is just because of Elon Musk basically is is is a strong one and um the whiff one is is suffering because of of it um but it's still at like 2.2k support uh 2.2k 2.2 support uh on the chart like on the daily chart you have like a range low at 2.2 is um so that's kind of retesting that so like if if we see a little bit of strength there um that'd

be good if not like starts Looking quite bad just technically speaking so needs to hold 2.2 uh if that fails I see I could see it make like just me the downwards and that would look quite bad um reason why I wanted to update is because I mean I was bull bull talking it at 1.6 1.7 on this show uh it went up quite a bit but now it's been underperforming and I think like 2.2 is a good invalidation slash like if you if you're really bullish with that's a good entry um but it needs

to hold yeah at Least the levels are still very useful on this thing right like it got stuffed at the former high at 2.8 so like yeah on the TA you're not going to this isn't the kind of chart that misleads you on the TA side at least as much as uh or as frequently as others there are a few other interesting ones like um popcat had a very interesting failed trend line breakdown I don't know if you were following that oh yeah I actually saw it on Twitter but I haven't been following How it

looks like oh yeah strong that's not strong recovery right um and in general I think if if there is a dominant Trend some of the best setups you're going to have are those failed breakdowns um I saw a lot of people bidding that trend line actually before it failed yeah I saw that too um guess that's why it failed haha but no like uh again this is the whole trade-off thing like if you're aggressively Trend following and you see a break you're Going to and you're up a [ __ ] ton then you're going to

Nuke your position and sometimes you'll be right and you get like an early exit signal 10% down versus 40 50% down but other times it's just a fake out in a strong Trend and then you have to buy back higher so yeah no free lunch you you know if you're going to aggressively Trend follow you need to be to both cut early but also get back in if you're wrong if you really want to milk uh you know the Entire move yeah I mean it gave you like you had that like diagonal um but it

gave you quite a nice exit basically on like just like it had a breakout above 1.5 something like the prior high before the the the alltime high yes and then it failed that and that was quite a nice exit signal short term like if you're like like if you're aggressively Trend following where your stop loss just the the last low I think these kind of signals you cannot ignore because that's So much better than the last low right if you took the last low and you had your like that's your exit H you get Pico

bottoms right like that's your exit is the peo bottom whereas like that breakout that failed um you could just Reby now if you wanted to uh and now that it has wiped all of those lows you could actually put your invalidation back below that low and fail breakdowns give you fresh in validations by definition that's why those setups are So so spicy cuz you have a technical reason for it to uh revert which is you know the failed move itself and the trap participation there and absorption all the you know stuff that comes with it

but you also have a built-in validation because of the whole double fake outs a rare thing that we love talking about yeah so either either you're not aggressive yes uh and then this wouldn't have taken you out because your like your invalidation technically would have Been below one if you're not aggressive yes like just that impulse candle that would have been your invalidation or you are aggressive but then you have to take like false breakouts and stuff like that very seriously because like that false breakout like that's a decent signal and it's probably gonna take

the low too and then you can either like if you want to be really aggressive just re-enter on the low that gets swiped if you think something is really bullish or just Reby When it's when it's showing the strength that you want which would be technically now and then you have a new invalidation at 1.12 at 1.2 is right now look at that on just tradeoffs again yeah [ __ ] radical Centrist there's always a trade-off which I think that's just how the world works there's nothing like there is just no black and white that's

not how it works it's always like something in between and there's always like Tradeoffs to to what we're doing no free lunches on casual Frid no free lunches uh let's wrap yeah let's do uh you start oh okay it's it's back to tradition is it yeah please well yeah that's all from us hopefully this is somewhere helpful uh let us know in the comments thank you to we for supporting the show somehow Don they're still here uh thank you to them make sure to click stuff so they didn't ditch us completely and we'll see you

next week bye-bye